Welcome to the Australian Aviation Thread January 2023. Please continue your discussion and to post your news here.

Link to previous thread:

Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Pre-flight COVID testing required for arrivals from China from January 5.

This also includes arrivals from Hong Kong & Macau.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/covi ... 5c9q0.html

melpax wrote:

Pre-flight COVID testing required for arrivals from China from January 5.

This also includes arrivals from Hong Kong & Macau.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/covi ... 5c9q0.html

Hopefully this is just a knee jerk reaction, and quickly gets removed again.

It seems ANA may be considering returning to Perth soon - NH has expanded their codeshare partnership with VA, with many of the new routes originating from Perth

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230101-nhva

zkncj wrote:

melpax wrote:

Pre-flight COVID testing required for arrivals from China from January 5.

This also includes arrivals from Hong Kong & Macau.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/covi ... 5c9q0.html

Hopefully this is just a knee jerk reaction, and quickly gets removed again.

Lets hope not, nearly every Western Country is doing it now, and to be honest I'd like borders to remain open. Anything to stop this thing coming out in force again is a thumbs up so I can travel again.

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

QF19 SYD-MNL currently returning to SYD due to communications outage at MNL

A couple of JQ PER-DPS flights have had bags removed as a result of the need for more fuel, passengers still without bags.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... 9e5a8be019

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Bonza will fail to get off the ground. Sadly, their business model (which is based off FR) won't work in Australia due to a near-zero population density in places they want to target.

Tomotron wrote:

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Bonza will fail to get off the ground. Sadly, their business model (which is based off FR) won't work in Australia due to a near-zero population density in places they want to target.

I’d suspect that VA is watching very closely, and waiting to snap up those 737-8s of Bonza’s (and any flight crew they have).

Sadly Australia / Indonesia, have passenger caps. Otherwise Bonza might of been better off focusing on budget travel to DPS.

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Will be interesting to see how Bonza go, I’m not confident in the business model, happen to be proven wrong!
VA float, maybe mid year, by year end we may see an adjustment in focus
Introduction/announcement of a few new more skinny Asian routes/Pacific Island eg DRW-SIN already announced.
Think we’ll see the return on the Chinese airlines in force by the end of the year, CX too
Intl fares to come down a bit, based on the extra seats from the Chinese airlines
QF to tease the media re Project Sunrise with announcements of announcements
Also expect at least a few stories negative media articles re the introduction of the 737 MAX to the Australian register, even though other airlines already fly them to Australia…

zkncj wrote:

Tomotron wrote:

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Bonza will fail to get off the ground. Sadly, their business model (which is based off FR) won't work in Australia due to a near-zero population density in places they want to target.

I’d suspect that VA is watching very closely, and waiting to snap up those 737-8s of Bonza’s (and any flight crew they have).

Sadly Australia / Indonesia, have passenger caps. Otherwise Bonza might of been better off focusing on budget travel to DPS.

The 737-8s of Bonza's are owned by a lessor linked to the Private Equity owner of Bonza (777 Partners). 777 will just transfer those 737-8s to their other LCCs in Canada or in Asia if Bonza doesn't work in Australia.

Obzerva wrote:

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Will be interesting to see how Bonza go, I’m not confident in the business model, happen to be proven wrong!
VA float, maybe mid year, by year end we may see an adjustment in focus
Introduction/announcement of a few new more skinny Asian routes/Pacific Island eg DRW-SIN already announced.
Think we’ll see the return on the Chinese airlines in force by the end of the year, CX too
Intl fares to come down a bit, based on the extra seats from the Chinese airlines
QF to tease the media re Project Sunrise with announcements of announcements
Also expect at least a few stories negative media articles re the introduction of the 737 MAX to the Australian register, even though other airlines already fly them to Australia…

Happy New Year too All… C word isn’t welcome in any discussions this year…

Personally I was never confident in their business model as the aircraft type and markets it will serve on just didn’t make a great deal of sense whatsoever… Perhaps an aircraft within the E90’s capacity would’ve been better suited to their markets not B737Maxs… Just my personal opinion…

EK413

ASOSpotter wrote:

zkncj wrote:

melpax wrote:

Pre-flight COVID testing required for arrivals from China from January 5.

This also includes arrivals from Hong Kong & Macau.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/covi ... 5c9q0.html

Hopefully this is just a knee jerk reaction, and quickly gets removed again.

Lets hope not, nearly every Western Country is doing it now, and to be honest I'd like borders to remain open. Anything to stop this thing coming out in force again is a thumbs up so I can travel again.

Exactly, the world doesn't need another exotic variant of covid emerging because of the mass infection rate happening now. Test everyone before they leave and try and keep things confined to that part of the world. The rest of the world has had to put up with the testing before travel and it's not like it's a major hassle.

EK413 wrote:

Obzerva wrote:

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Will be interesting to see how Bonza go, I’m not confident in the business model, happen to be proven wrong!
VA float, maybe mid year, by year end we may see an adjustment in focus
Introduction/announcement of a few new more skinny Asian routes/Pacific Island eg DRW-SIN already announced.
Think we’ll see the return on the Chinese airlines in force by the end of the year, CX too
Intl fares to come down a bit, based on the extra seats from the Chinese airlines
QF to tease the media re Project Sunrise with announcements of announcements
Also expect at least a few stories negative media articles re the introduction of the 737 MAX to the Australian register, even though other airlines already fly them to Australia…

Happy New Year too All… C word isn’t welcome in any discussions this year…

Personally I was never confident in their business model as the aircraft type and markets it will serve on just didn’t make a great deal of sense whatsoever… Perhaps an aircraft within the E90’s capacity would’ve been better suited to their markets not B737Maxs… Just my personal opinion…

EK413

The Max 8 is certainly overkill on most of their proposed routes - even Skytrans fly the 36 seat Dash 8-100 Series on CNS-PPP-ROK services. Surely a 36 seat turboprop is better suited than a 180+ seater Max 8 on some of their proposed routes, or maybe waiting for E190's, 717's, A221 or get some Q400's?

atal17 wrote:

It seems ANA may be considering returning to Perth soon - NH has expanded their codeshare partnership with VA, with many of the new routes originating from Perth

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230101-nhva

i hope they do !!

Last night's QR BNE-DOH flight returned to BNE shortly after takeoff due to a technical issue, it circled for about 2 hours dumping fuel before arriving back at BNE

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australi ... r-AA15R6xu

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Some thoughts, from least to most ambitious

- NH return to Perth (a given with the codeshare announcement)
- Testing requirements for travellers coming from China dropped within 2 months
- Qantas & Perth Airport will finally come to some agreement which facilitates permanent PER-JNB flights
- Bonza enter the market around July, will leave the market within a year
- Qantas announce a Fokker 100 replacement, converting a few A320Neos to A319Neos to do so
- DRW-SIN is successful, Qantas enter DRW-CGK with E190s
- Turkish enters the market with seasonal IST-PER services and codeshare with VA (have to say something ambitious)

Bonza kick off flights in March, proceed to drop underperforming routes in May, then throw metal on JQ dominated routes such as Gold Coast, Hobart and Cairns
REX acquire 2-4 more 738s in 1st half 2023 and launch Perth - MEL -ADL - SYD and add more flights to OOL and the triangle
Pelican launch Sydney to Grafton, Lismore
VA launch more Asian destinations and expand their relationship with Link with new regional destinations
Link will start looking at Q400s or ATRs
JQ put 321s on Bali, Melbourne - Singapore and where ever else they can, dropping Melbourne Honolulu due to range issues and then transfer 788s to QF
QF will continue to bumble along announcing new routes and they have now way of servicing and order new birds they will never take delivery of

angusjt wrote:

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

Some thoughts, from least to most ambitious

- NH return to Perth (a given with the codeshare announcement)
- Testing requirements for travellers coming from China dropped within 2 months
- Qantas & Perth Airport will finally come to some agreement which facilitates permanent PER-JNB flights
- Bonza enter the market around July, will leave the market within a year
- Qantas announce a Fokker 100 replacement, converting a few A320Neos to A319Neos to do so
- DRW-SIN is successful, Qantas enter DRW-CGK with E190s
- Turkish enters the market with seasonal IST-PER services and codeshare with VA (have to say something ambitious)

I agree NH will return to PER, I would expect them to start at around 3-4 weekly and build up from there
As for a replacement for the F100's I would expect the A220 to be a better fit than A319neo's, I think that the A220-100 would be a perfect fit for the replacement of the F100's, not to mention it opens up a lot more opportunities as well due to the range it offers
As much as I would like to see TK fly to PER, I cant see it happening, the latest on TK serving Australia seems to suggest that they will serve SYD/MEL via a stop in Asia like CGK or SIN

Hey guys,
Re 2023... My predictions:
* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ...
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ...
* Qantas and Virgin to announce at least one new international route each within the next twelve weeks ... And another new one for Qantas about two months after that ...
* Qantas to go ahead with ordering at least three and possibly up to six more Dreamliner 9s irrespective of the A330 replacement plan ...
* Virgin to organise obtaining four more MAX 8s, announced in the second half of the year. A 'refreshed' livery featuring more red/purple may be introduced as well with the MAXs plus a few 'out of the box' product enhancements ...
* Sydney West to be a focus in the lead up to the NSW state election in March ... with commitments being (unsuccessfully) sought from domestic and international airlines as to the services that they will launch: too far out to predict at this point I reckon and airline bosses would be wary of being used by politicians of any side in the current climate. Bonza however, may make a deliberate splash by announcing its SWZ services will start as soon as the airport opens ... As a diversionary tactic from its perceived lack of progress towards actual launch of services ....
* Turkish the most likely new international airline to start Australian services with Ethiopian an outside chance and Bangladesh Biman and Pakistan also very long odds ...
* new international flights from Canberra to be announced soonish - maybe 'Our Man in Canberra' Alex knows more about these rumours?
* Rex quietly drops its attempts to 'electrify' the engines of the Saab 340s and firms up plans to begin their replacement ...
Let the fun begin!
Take care,
Bunumuring

https://www.9news.com.au/national/gold-coast-helicopters-major-incident-main-beach/a0cce383-ae23-47ae-ba3f-180e8129ef48

Still a developing story, but seems that two helicopters have collided outside sea world this afternoon on the Gold Coast.

zkncj wrote:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/gold-coast-helicopters-major-incident-main-beach/a0cce383-ae23-47ae-ba3f-180e8129ef48

Still a developing story, but seems that two helicopters have collided outside sea world this afternoon on the Gold Coast.

That's some goulish coverage from 9... to be expected from Australian TV though.

My predications:

QF Group
Aircraft Orders: B787 and A350 to both replace A330s. Top up orders of E190s to replace a majority of B737 services out of DRW to boost domestic frequency and expand international services out of DRW into Asia.
Routes: (likely) DRW-SIN, PER-JNB (all year round), SYD-YVR (to go 6x or daily), SYD-KIX, AKL-JFK (to go 5 or 6x from NS24), MEL-DEL (to go daily). (outside chance) DRW-DPS, DRW-CGK, DRW-MNL, DRW-BKK, ADL-AKL, CBR-AKL/WLG, ADL-DPS, PER-CDG (all year) /BCN (seasonal), BNE-ORD and SYD-SEA (NS24 start), assume its leased LHR slots from BA and beefing up operations in NS24 in preparation for A350-1000s commencing, coinciding with a AKL-PER-LHR possibility.
Codeshares: QF to codeshare on CX services out of BNE, PER and ADL.
JQ Ops: 321s to replace all B788 flying to DPS. 788s to be redirected towards other Asian routes. AVV-DPS is a possibility.

VA
Will continue to beef up NZ services.
Go public sometime in late 2023. Bain still maintaining 49% ownership.

Rex
Rex to either pull out or double down on B737 services.
Acquiring a share of VA went it goes public or ZL/VA announcing a codeshare agreement.

Bonza
Will survive the year but will struggle.

Others:
NH (PER-HND), QH, AA (BNE-LAX), KE (MEL-ICN), AI, SQ and low cost Asian airlines to boost services to AU.

It’d be fun to look at our 2022 predictions we did a year ago. Without looking, something tells me we wouldn’t have done too well.

Tricky one- as last few years have been so rough:
- QF:
Order more 789 for partial 330 replacement and expansion. When delivered they will not only service Asia - Eventually they will resume - MEL-SFO, second attempt at BNE-ORD, SYD-SEA, PER-CDG and FRA seasonal. Announce a rather boring cabin for their A220, new business class seat for 350, maybe late in the year 321 cabin. Maybe master plan for SYD mega terminal? And hopefully a new lounge in Melbourne.

- VA;
Potentially return to PI - APW/TBU, I don’t see any major fleet announcements, they will release their new max interiors, and continue with their lounge refresh program. Some enhancements to velocity.

I see Bonza and Rex as the ones to watch, with Rex purchasing Cobham, if both carriers are struggling could we see 777 take an interest in ZL? Low cost labour, leverage off ZLs market in the regions? Either merge, or run Bonza as an arm of ZL…… before eventually it comes crashing down and VA buys them and resurrects their two brand VA/TT days… with sky high yields atm, if ZL can ever get a FF program up and running they may have a decent chance, trouble will be accessing tech crew and slots.

I do think more flying from DRW is interesting, but I wonder if QF will wait for the A220, and a slower withdrawal of 717s whisky displacing E190s?

I do agree - a flood of Chinese carriers will be racing back to the market! And very much hope some more interesting suggestions above
TK- MEL/SYD
LY-TLV-MEL
AI-DEL-PER
ET-ADD-MEL

bunumuring wrote:

Hey guys,
Re 2023... My predictions:
* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ...
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ...
* Qantas and Virgin to announce at least one new international route each within the next twelve weeks ... And another new one for Qantas about two months after that ...

* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ... Yawn, just jumping on the "woke" bandwagon
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ... ditto
* (edit) Qantas to announce at least one new international or domestic route within the next 2 weeks ... And more new ones for Qantas about two weeks after that , then quietly drop them every 2 weeks after just 2 months of operations
EG
Perth Rome
Perth Johannesburg
Perth Jakarta (never started)
Melbourne Mount Gambia and Wagga
SYD / BNE Cooma

My most optimistic predication is after the NSW state election, QF/SYD/NSW Gov to announce some sort of new QF hub at SYD that include the tearing down/facelift of T2 and T3 that will house domestic and international ops, with T1 going hybrid as well.

Deano969 wrote:

bunumuring wrote:

Hey guys,
Re 2023... My predictions:
* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ...
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ...
* Qantas and Virgin to announce at least one new international route each within the next twelve weeks ... And another new one for Qantas about two months after that ...

* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ... Yawn, just jumping on the "woke" bandwagon
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ... ditto
* (edit) Qantas to announce at least one new international or domestic route within the next 2 weeks ... And more new ones for Qantas about two weeks after that , then quietly drop them every 2 weeks after just 2 months of operations
EG
Perth Rome
Perth Johannesburg
Perth Jakarta (never started)
Melbourne Mount Gambia and Wagga
SYD / BNE Cooma

Well aren’t you a bundle of positivity

Sadly 4 deaths from the crash....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/quee ... 5c9ws.html

smi0006 wrote:

- VA;
Potentially return to PI - APW/TBU, I don’t see any major fleet announcements, they will release their new max interiors, and continue with their lounge refresh program. Some enhancements to velocity.

Virgin Australia have already announced a return to APW (along with VLI) - both commencing late March 2023. Tickets have already been on sale for months now.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... l-network/

[quote="bunumuring"]Hey guys,
Re 2023... My predictions:
* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ...
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ...
* Qantas and Virgin to announce at least one new international route each within the next twelve weeks ... And another new one for Qantas about two months after that ...

QF having more indigenous imagery on aircraft including interiors- need to be careful here with the backlash in certain parts with the " we recognize" at every landing. No issues with indigenous input etc, but beware of woke politics it can turn and bite.
QF & VA announcing new international routes, maybe. But where are VA going to send yet another 738 or max. Still doubt Cairns Haneda will hang around for too long, that was simply slot hogging with the added bonus of some $$ by the QLD government , who have already pumped enough $$ into them.
Bangladesh Bihman & Pakistan. i wont say never , but cant see it happening in a hurry.
ok t
What would i like to see? decent flights and fares from regional to the big smoke , try booking an EMD or ROK to BNE and see the cost. My last EMD - BNE cost $820.00 return and that was 14 days in advance

AN767

getluv wrote:

Others:
NH (PER-HND), QH, AA (BNE-LAX), KE (MEL-ICN), AI, SQ and low cost Asian airlines to boost services to AU.

* NH already using both HND slots on double daily SYD. Unlikely they'll take a HND slot away from SYD to service PER, PER may get NRT-PER though.
* AA BNE-LAX probably unlikely when their JV partner QF is already servicing the route with seasonal frequency upgrades to 10 weekly. AA may consider BNE-DFW though
* SQ may potentially may go above their pre-COVID network by the end of 2023, but apart from that, BNE's 4th SIN frequency from the pre-COVID days hasn't returned yet but wouldn't be surprised if that is eventually restored.

An767 wrote:

QF & VA announcing new international routes, maybe. But where are VA going to send yet another 738 or max. Still doubt Cairns Haneda will hang around for too long, that was simply slot hogging with the added bonus of some $$ by the QLD government , who have already pumped enough $$ into them.

VA's CNS-HND will last as long as their AAIF contract from the State of Queensland dictates, which is typically between 18 months and 24 months. Considering the Tourism Minister wants to get more Japanese tourists in Queensland, it wouldn't surprise me if the State of Queensland helps advertise the service on behalf of VA. In the end, it may or may not succeed.

I believe NH will split PER (3 services) and SYD (11 services). SYD-NRT is more likely than PER-NRT.
QF will continue to struggle with aircraft availability so AA also assuming a seasonal BNE-LAX a few times a week seems likely. QF was serving BNE-LAX 11x over summer 19/20 if I remember correctly with B747s and B787s. I don't think AA's 787s can do DFW-BNE (happy to be corrected).

Deano969 wrote:

bunumuring wrote:

Hey guys,
Re 2023... My predictions:
* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ...
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ...
* Qantas and Virgin to announce at least one new international route each within the next twelve weeks ... And another new one for Qantas about two months after that ...

* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ... Yawn, just jumping on the "woke" bandwagon
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ... ditto
* (edit) Qantas to announce at least one new international or domestic route within the next 2 weeks ... And more new ones for Qantas about two weeks after that , then quietly drop them every 2 weeks after just 2 months of operations
EG
Perth Rome
Perth Johannesburg
Perth Jakarta (never started)
Melbourne Mount Gambia and Wagga
SYD / BNE Cooma

Indigenous art- woke bandwagon? Wasn’t Wunala dreaming 25-30yrs ago? And the 737s over the years, 789? And the aboriginal uniforms maybe 15-20yrs? QF have been working in collaboration with indigenous design houses for before anyone used the word woke. Why is a rainbow roo for world pride any different than a Dubai expo logo on an EK aircraft? Hardly woke, just promoting a large tourist drawcard.

Rome was always seasonal, and is due back this year no? JNB, and CGK- ex PER were dropped for facilitation issues not commercial. Can’t comment on the regional routes.

getluv wrote:

I believe NH will split PER (3 services) and SYD (11 services). SYD-NRT is more likely than PER-NRT.
QF will continue to struggle with aircraft availability so AA also assuming a seasonal BNE-LAX a few times a week seems likely. QF was serving BNE-LAX 11x over summer 19/20 if I remember correctly with B747s and B787s. I don't think AA's 787s can do DFW-BNE (happy to be corrected).

Isn’t there an issue with AA crew and ULH flying? I vaguely recall they can’t make AU-DFW it’s too many duty hours for cabin crew…. Could be my misunderstanding though. Be interesting to see if AA steps into contribute more with QF, as you flag with QF constrained they do risk cede more market to UA/VA. Could a QF 330 make SFO? Maybe swap AA for lax and QF move to BNE-SFO?

Any ideas as to why today's JQ 116 / 02JAN23 PER-DPS is delayed from 1710PM today to 1000AM tomorrow ?

One thing I'd be interested in for the year, given Garuda's weakened position, I wonder if SQ would have another go at launching SYD-CGK-SIN like they planned in 2016.
https://australianaviation.com.au/2016/ ... ore-route/

smi0006 wrote:

getluv wrote:

I believe NH will split PER (3 services) and SYD (11 services). SYD-NRT is more likely than PER-NRT.
QF will continue to struggle with aircraft availability so AA also assuming a seasonal BNE-LAX a few times a week seems likely. QF was serving BNE-LAX 11x over summer 19/20 if I remember correctly with B747s and B787s. I don't think AA's 787s can do DFW-BNE (happy to be corrected).

Isn’t there an issue with AA crew and ULH flying? I vaguely recall they can’t make AU-DFW it’s too many duty hours for cabin crew…. Could be my misunderstanding though. Be interesting to see if AA steps into contribute more with QF, as you flag with QF constrained they do risk cede more market to UA/VA. Could a QF 330 make SFO? Maybe swap AA for lax and QF move to BNE-SFO?

Could be AA crew but I don't think AA's 787s were customised to do 15hrs+ without significant payload restrictions.

QF need to get rid of the A330s off mainland US routes asap. While the strong USD has significantly weakened demand, their premium demand hasn't taken a hit. I would think restoring SYD-SFO, SYD-DFW, MEL-LAX to daily and BNE-ORD would be a higher priority than BNE-SFO, especially if QF/AA can get BNE-LAX back to pre-COVID levels.

qf789 wrote:

As per the usual January thread what’s everyone’s predictions for the year

ok, here's my take:

- VA will be floated (up to 65%), with the remainder held by Bain Capital for the time being.
-- Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Temasek and/or SQ become the largest institutional investor.
-- Capital raised will go towards fleet replacement and growth. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an order for some B789s for a "proper" service to HND and the resumption of LAX with an expected delivery from 2024/2025.
-- Also expect to see some 7M10's announced, again.

- QF will plod along as they always do, and probably start a marketing campaign to say "Sorry (not sorry), but we're improving".
-- With revenue/cash flow improving, I see additional A223 and A321XLR orders. Would be surprised to see 6-8 A320Neo's in the order.
-- Sorry, can't recall who suggested QF going for some A319Neos; I don't think I'd ever see that happening. More likely a mix of A221 and A223 to fill that void and also begin replacing the F100's.
-- More A35Ks ordered but as a direct A380 replacement. Would expect a higher density 3 class cabin: J, W, Y.
-- Possible announcement of the Wide Body RFP. I'm betting it'll be A338/9 and A359.
-- Possible announcement of PER-LAX as an expansion of Project Sunrise.
-- Probably more leaks of Sunrise First Class.

- JQ
-- With QF possibly announcing the purchase of the A338/9/A359, details on how some of the existing B789s will be added to the fleet.
-- Possible new routes to Italy and Greece (perhaps seasonal)

- ZL I think will still add more B738s but maybe not as many as expected.
-- Hoping they might jump out of the square and offer something a bit more unique for them like a small section of Y+ seating: It's just Y but with a bit more seat pitch.
-- Possible news on the acquisition of some ATR42-600s to start replacing the Saab's. Wouldn't be surprised if they start adding a couple of used ones to begin with.

- AB (Bonza) I think it'll be a slow start for them. Can't imagine more than 5 flying aircraft by the end of the year.

- TK will finally announce a service to Australia. I'm betting on IST-SIN-SYD, and possibly IST-SIN-MEL. I think the stopover in SIN makes more sense as they will have better access to more Aussie markets (via QF, or even VA in the future) than by going via CGK.

Well that's my 2c.

Cheers.

(And a Happy New Year to all)

Okay proper take..

- VA is floated to 44%. (Taking into consideration RB's 5% stake and the miniscule 1% stake from the State of Queensland) Bain remains majority shareholder at 51% for now.
- I can see the 'annual' news articles/discussions of will SQ (or Temasek) finally "take over VA" and will expect one or both of those mentioned parties to fade out as usual and end up to be the usual tyre-kicking "Fake News" as per the past decade.
- Bet though probably unlikely: Qatar Airways will take a minority stake in VA during Bain's IPO - somewhere between 10%-15%
- VA's expanding more into leisure Trans-Tasman routings such as BNE-DUD and potentially anything from OOL (except AKL), but will stay away from AKL/CHC from the East Coast cities.
- Capital raised from IPO to announce a change in international focus (Widebodies for 2025 onwards) once the dust settles on the 44% of VA being sold off from Bain.

- QF announces a expansion in A220/A321XLR orders, second tranche to perhaps have flatbeds fitted (moving away from the no-subfleet focus).
- F100 replacement at Network to be from the above mentioned expanded A220 order
- Higher density A350-1000s ordered, but the standard configuration with the J/W/Y layout
- Various news articles of Sunrise F to be spread throughout the 2nd half of this year.
- Alliance takeover to be rejected by the ACCC, however QF retains their 20% stake in QQ and maintains the wet-lease agreements as is. Any short haul international work (e.g DRW-SIN) might be done on A220s instead of E190s.
- QF to finally resume SYD-SFO and restore any less than daily existing routings to daily. MEL-SFO announced in late 2023 for a early 2024 return. QF will unlikely to return to BNE-SFO for the foreseeable future due to the UA/VA/BAC/State of Queensland partnership on that particular route.

- 788s pulled from DPS flying as they are gradually replaced by the A321LRs and moved into other Asian markets for JQ. Perhaps more SIN and/or Japan flying.
- Potentially more leisure Pacific Islands flying, competing against VA and Pacific Island nation carriers.

- ZL may acquire another 5 738s at most for the year.
- Announcement on Saab replacements before the end of year.
- FF program finally operational by late Q3 2023. (Unlikely but a Bet: EY announced as a partner in the ZL FF program, but EY retains VA as a partner for the jet routes ZL doesn't serve - giving EY's FFs 2 Australian options).
- Bonza to take off by end of March 2023. Won't be more than 5 aircraft at the end of 2023. Underperforming routes to be gone by September with some flying transferred to MEL and/or the potential of announcing OOL point to point flying.

smi0006 wrote:

Deano969 wrote:

bunumuring wrote:

Hey guys,
Re 2023... My predictions:
* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ...
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ...
* Qantas and Virgin to announce at least one new international route each within the next twelve weeks ... And another new one for Qantas about two months after that ...

* Qantas to have some Indigenous imagery 'makeovers' (starting inside the cabin) designed by a prominent Indigenous artist ... Yawn, just jumping on the "woke" bandwagon
* perhaps with links to the above, a subtle 'Rainbow Roo II' is rolled out in the very near future to promote WorldPride ... ditto
* (edit) Qantas to announce at least one new international or domestic route within the next 2 weeks ... And more new ones for Qantas about two weeks after that , then quietly drop them every 2 weeks after just 2 months of operations
EG
Perth Rome
Perth Johannesburg
Perth Jakarta (never started)
Melbourne Mount Gambia and Wagga
SYD / BNE Cooma

Indigenous art- woke bandwagon? Wasn’t Wunala dreaming 25-30yrs ago? And the 737s over the years, 789? And the aboriginal uniforms maybe 15-20yrs? QF have been working in collaboration with indigenous design houses for before anyone used the word woke. Why is a rainbow roo for world pride any different than a Dubai expo logo on an EK aircraft? Hardly woke, just promoting a large tourist drawcard.

Rome was always seasonal, and is due back this year no? JNB, and CGK- ex PER were dropped for facilitation issues not commercial. Can’t comment on the regional routes.

It's different because the Qantas support of the LGBTIQ and Indigenous communities is nothing more than feel good tokenism to attract more profit. If you seriously think they care about the rights of Indigenous groups and other minority communities you're mistaken. They simply like the spot light of association. QF continuously makes business decisions contrary to standard ethical codes.
For example, they have no issue aligning with carriers and stakeholders of partners where homosexuality is punishable by death. They also have no issue with removing Taiwan from their inflight magazines to appease the Chinese government.

My prediction for 2023 is regarding NTL. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least 1 if not 2 International destinations commence. I'll go with a Pacific island and Singapore as my first two bets.

More direct Japan flights from MEL, maybe NH to NRT.
Perhaps a QF return to NRT also when capacity allows - maybe the A380. Would make sense with the decline in leisure demand to the US.

getluv wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

getluv wrote:

I believe NH will split PER (3 services) and SYD (11 services). SYD-NRT is more likely than PER-NRT.
QF will continue to struggle with aircraft availability so AA also assuming a seasonal BNE-LAX a few times a week seems likely. QF was serving BNE-LAX 11x over summer 19/20 if I remember correctly with B747s and B787s. I don't think AA's 787s can do DFW-BNE (happy to be corrected).

Isn’t there an issue with AA crew and ULH flying? I vaguely recall they can’t make AU-DFW it’s too many duty hours for cabin crew…. Could be my misunderstanding though. Be interesting to see if AA steps into contribute more with QF, as you flag with QF constrained they do risk cede more market to UA/VA. Could a QF 330 make SFO? Maybe swap AA for lax and QF move to BNE-SFO?

Could be AA crew but I don't think AA's 787s were customised to do 15hrs+ without significant payload restrictions.

QF need to get rid of the A330s off mainland US routes asap. While the strong USD has significantly weakened demand, their premium demand hasn't taken a hit. I would think restoring SYD-SFO, SYD-DFW, MEL-LAX to daily and BNE-ORD would be a higher priority than BNE-SFO, especially if QF/AA can get BNE-LAX back to pre-COVID levels.

QF is unlikely to send their aircraft on BNE-SFO for the foreseeable future. The BAC and the State of Queensland (and to a lesser extent VA via codeshare) do have a financial interest in UA operating the BNE-SFO route.

QF's 789 in the current config did perform well on BNE-LAX pre-COVID from J/W loads from memory (without looking at any official loading stats), although the lack of Y seating if QF were able to find the 789s for the BNE-LAX route means they are ceding the leisure market to the one-stoppers via NZ, FJ and to a lesser extent to UA and AC via SFO and YVR.

PR211 wrote:

My prediction for 2023 is regarding NTL. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least 1 if not 2 International destinations commence. I'll go with a Pacific island and Singapore as my first two bets.

What are the costs to accommodate international operations (border controls, customs, dedicated areas, etc)? Would this really make it worthwhile?

ABpositive wrote:

PR211 wrote:

My prediction for 2023 is regarding NTL. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least 1 if not 2 International destinations commence. I'll go with a Pacific island and Singapore as my first two bets.

What are the costs to accommodate international operations (border controls, customs, dedicated areas, etc)? Would this really make it worthwhile?

NTL has had international before, both with VA and SJ to AKL.

The last attempt was VA over the 19/20 summer season to AKL, which got cut short of virus related reasons…

2023 Predictions
- NZ to launch an 3x week AKL-AVV service (in late 22 NZ said there were in talks with AVV).
- AKL-MCY/HBA moves to daily year round.

smi0006 wrote:

getluv wrote:

I believe NH will split PER (3 services) and SYD (11 services). SYD-NRT is more likely than PER-NRT.
QF will continue to struggle with aircraft availability so AA also assuming a seasonal BNE-LAX a few times a week seems likely. QF was serving BNE-LAX 11x over summer 19/20 if I remember correctly with B747s and B787s. I don't think AA's 787s can do DFW-BNE (happy to be corrected).

Isn’t there an issue with AA crew and ULH flying? I vaguely recall they can’t make AU-DFW it’s too many duty hours for cabin crew…. Could be my misunderstanding though. Be interesting to see if AA steps into contribute more with QF, as you flag with QF constrained they do risk cede more market to UA/VA. Could a QF 330 make SFO? Maybe swap AA for lax and QF move to BNE-SFO?

AA currently fly DEL-JFK which takes a similar time to what DFW-East Coast Australia would take. Their current 789's are configured with 285 seats, which probably cant a full payload with that amount of seats. The next batch of 789's AA will receive starting in 2024 will be configured with 244 seats in a more premium layout. I would say we wont see anything from DFW from AA until then, they will be a similar seating capacity to what QF 789's are

zkncj wrote:

2023 Predictions
- NZ to launch an 3x week AKL-AVV service (in late 22 NZ said there were in talks with AVV).
- AKL-MCY/HBA moves to daily year round.

You are kidding, aren't you? Check the BITRE stats for AKL-the HBA and MCY routes and you'll see that would be folly.

Re AKL-AVV, I think this too would be a mistake. I can't figure out what market would be served other than Geelong and the Bellerine Peninsula. It's way, way less convenient than MEL if you're actually travelling to MEL. I can't think under what circumstances (other than an avgeek's nerdish enthusiasm) I would use AVV over MEL. Nor can many others, judging by how few flights now operate there. And the Bellerine isn't a compelling tourist destination for NZers, unless you're a surfer or want to drive the Great Ocean Road. Which more or less leaves the main market as Geelong residents travelling to NZ and beyond, along with a handful of NZERS visiting the Bellerine

Conversely, the actual O&D data for SQ's former WLG-CBR route suggests there maybe sufficient demand to and from NZ to justify a few AKL-CBR flights a week. If I was picking one new Tasman connection to be made by NZ in 2023, AKL-CBR would be the one.