2023 New Zealand Aviation Predictions:

- NZ will ‘officially’ place an order for a small 8-10 seater aircraft. More PR perspective of being green…
- NZ will order additional a321NEO’s, maybe with some XLR’s added into the mix?
- NZ will obtain 1-2 used 77W’s for the 2023/4 summer hoildays period, on a short term lease.
- JQ starts PER-AKL with there a321LR’s.
- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

zkncj wrote:

2023 New Zealand Aviation Predictions:

- NZ will ‘officially’ place an order for a small 8-10 seater aircraft. More PR perspective of being green…
- NZ will order additional a321NEO’s, maybe with some XLR’s added into the mix?
- NZ will obtain 1-2 used 77W’s for the 2023/4 summer hoildays period, on a short term lease.
- JQ starts PER-AKL with there a321LR’s.
- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

Happy New Year everyone. Would 8-10 seats work? The 1900D were 19 seats and NZ couldn't make them work.

77west wrote:

zkncj wrote:

2023 New Zealand Aviation Predictions:

- NZ will ‘officially’ place an order for a small 8-10 seater aircraft. More PR perspective of being green…
- NZ will order additional a321NEO’s, maybe with some XLR’s added into the mix?
- NZ will obtain 1-2 used 77W’s for the 2023/4 summer hoildays period, on a short term lease.
- JQ starts PER-AKL with there a321LR’s.
- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

Happy New Year everyone. Would 8-10 seats work? The 1900D were 19 seats and NZ couldn't make them work.

All the contenders they recently announced where under 10 seats.

I think they would do just for the marketing perspective, if having a clean green aircraft.

NZ had talked about being able to reintroduce HLZ-AKL, with new generation aircraft.

I think services will be restored, not sure I see to much new other than growth on existing routes

-TG and CA to return to AKL
-AA to return to LAX-AKL seasonal in addition to DFW
-DL to launch seasonal LAX-AKL on A339
-NZ to lease 1-2 additional 77W 3 year lease
-CZ to return to CHC-CAN

I think we could also either see NZ return to SGN seasonally or perhaps VN or QH start services to AKL.

Given what NZ are doing and sending the 77W to SIN and the way they are filling them, then some talk of adding a leased 1-2 makes me wonder what they will do, IAH will get them back in March to, the 781ER would need to be a hell of a plane to match the range of the 77W, the 789 can do IAH easily but is as we know much smaller.

Holiday Food for thought, certainly nothing I have seen points to NZ looking away from an all 787 fleet. Look at the recent UA order for 100 plus options plus what’s already in the fleet. How tempting is the 779?

ZK-NBT wrote:

Given what NZ are doing and sending the 77W to SIN and the way they are filling them, then some talk of adding a leased 1-2 makes me wonder what they will do, IAH will get them back in March to, the 781ER would need to be a hell of a plane to match the range of the 77W, the 789 can do IAH easily but is as we know much smaller.

Holiday Food for thought, certainly nothing I have seen points to NZ looking away from an all 787 fleet. Look at the recent UA order for 100 plus options plus what’s already in the fleet. How tempting is the 779?

As an opinion, I don't think the 779 is tempting currently due to the delays. If it was ontime and in service now, you'd probably hazard a guess that UA would have ordered a few of them instead of the 100 plus 787 options and you could probably guess that NZ would order a few to replace the 77W on current 77W routes with the 787 elsewhere.

If a 781ER comes out and matches the 77W in most aspects, I don't think the 779 has much of a future anywhere. If the 779 is more delayed, you could see the likes of EK reducing their order even more if not canx altogether and keep the A380 longer instead. The 77X would just turn into a cargo aircraft at that rate

Of course, just opinions and wild guesses

Happy New Year to all as well!

ZK-NBT wrote:

Given what NZ are doing and sending the 77W to SIN and the way they are filling them, then some talk of adding a leased 1-2 makes me wonder what they will do, IAH will get them back in March to, the 781ER would need to be a hell of a plane to match the range of the 77W, the 789 can do IAH easily but is as we know much smaller.

Holiday Food for thought, certainly nothing I have seen points to NZ looking away from an all 787 fleet. Look at the recent UA order for 100 plus options plus what’s already in the fleet. How tempting is the 779?

I think we might see in the next year, the 77W fleet being given a life line. With there retirements pushed out to the early 2030s, which gives Boeing more time to sort out a 787-10ER etc.

Post covid demand is much stronger than what NZ had projected it to be a year ago.

The 77W’s are still relatively young, and could go on for another 10 years (as long as they update the product, unlike the 763s).

If they are able to fill the 77Ws, then likeliness if there importance in the fleet would have gone up the chart.

mrkerr7474 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Given what NZ are doing and sending the 77W to SIN and the way they are filling them, then some talk of adding a leased 1-2 makes me wonder what they will do, IAH will get them back in March to, the 781ER would need to be a hell of a plane to match the range of the 77W, the 789 can do IAH easily but is as we know much smaller.

Holiday Food for thought, certainly nothing I have seen points to NZ looking away from an all 787 fleet. Look at the recent UA order for 100 plus options plus what’s already in the fleet. How tempting is the 779?

As an opinion, I don't think the 779 is tempting currently due to the delays. If it was ontime and in service now, you'd probably hazard a guess that UA would have ordered a few of them instead of the 100 plus 787 options and you could probably guess that NZ would order a few to replace the 77W on current 77W routes with the 787 elsewhere.

If a 781ER comes out and matches the 77W in most aspects, I don't think the 779 has much of a future anywhere. If the 779 is more delayed, you could see the likes of EK reducing their order even more if not canx altogether and keep the A380 longer instead. The 77X would just turn into a cargo aircraft at that rate

Of course, just opinions and wild guesses

Happy New Year to all as well!

Not now no, I was meaning as a 77W replacement in the mid late 2020s. Re UA their 77W fleet was delivered 2016/19 very young.

The airlines who have ordered the 779 this far are premium airlines who in some cases or even most just want the additional floor space over the A35K which several also have ordered, most of them I think will take them, how many more airlines order them I don’t know.

It is about operating cost though so an all 787 fleet is very appealing, hopefully the 781ER can fly similar distance to the 77W, that will suit most I think who operate it.

But if NZ can fill a daily 77W to IAH now and the 781 can’t fly it, that will be a substantial drop in seats given growth over the next few years. Longer term we will see more routes as well. I don’t personally expect NZ to change tack, not yet anyway. The 77W is good for several years a decade even if needed but would need a refresh of that were to happen.

ZK-NBT wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Given what NZ are doing and sending the 77W to SIN and the way they are filling them, then some talk of adding a leased 1-2 makes me wonder what they will do, IAH will get them back in March to, the 781ER would need to be a hell of a plane to match the range of the 77W, the 789 can do IAH easily but is as we know much smaller.

Holiday Food for thought, certainly nothing I have seen points to NZ looking away from an all 787 fleet. Look at the recent UA order for 100 plus options plus what’s already in the fleet. How tempting is the 779?

As an opinion, I don't think the 779 is tempting currently due to the delays. If it was ontime and in service now, you'd probably hazard a guess that UA would have ordered a few of them instead of the 100 plus 787 options and you could probably guess that NZ would order a few to replace the 77W on current 77W routes with the 787 elsewhere.

If a 781ER comes out and matches the 77W in most aspects, I don't think the 779 has much of a future anywhere. If the 779 is more delayed, you could see the likes of EK reducing their order even more if not canx altogether and keep the A380 longer instead. The 77X would just turn into a cargo aircraft at that rate

Of course, just opinions and wild guesses

Happy New Year to all as well!

Not now no, I was meaning as a 77W replacement in the mid late 2020s. Re UA their 77W fleet was delivered 2016/19 very young.

The airlines who have ordered the 779 this far are premium airlines who in some cases or even most just want the additional floor space over the A35K which several also have ordered, most of them I think will take them, how many more airlines order them I don’t know.

It is about operating cost though so an all 787 fleet is very appealing, hopefully the 781ER can fly similar distance to the 77W, that will suit most I think who operate it.

But if NZ can fill a daily 77W to IAH now and the 781 can’t fly it, that will be a substantial drop in seats given growth over the next few years. Longer term we will see more routes as well. I don’t personally expect NZ to change tack, not yet anyway. The 77W is good for several years a decade even if needed but would need a refresh of that were to happen.

From what I’ve heard, and understand from the pilots I’ve talked to on their walk arounds the 779 isn’t much better than the 77W! I think for Boeing to sell 779’s in the same way that they sold 77W’s they need to be much better. If airlines want to replace 77W’s with 781ER/IGW (or whatever they want to call it), they’ll need a few more of them to match the mighty 77W…!

Avtur wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

As an opinion, I don't think the 779 is tempting currently due to the delays. If it was ontime and in service now, you'd probably hazard a guess that UA would have ordered a few of them instead of the 100 plus 787 options and you could probably guess that NZ would order a few to replace the 77W on current 77W routes with the 787 elsewhere.

If a 781ER comes out and matches the 77W in most aspects, I don't think the 779 has much of a future anywhere. If the 779 is more delayed, you could see the likes of EK reducing their order even more if not canx altogether and keep the A380 longer instead. The 77X would just turn into a cargo aircraft at that rate

Of course, just opinions and wild guesses

Happy New Year to all as well!

Not now no, I was meaning as a 77W replacement in the mid late 2020s. Re UA their 77W fleet was delivered 2016/19 very young.

The airlines who have ordered the 779 this far are premium airlines who in some cases or even most just want the additional floor space over the A35K which several also have ordered, most of them I think will take them, how many more airlines order them I don’t know.

It is about operating cost though so an all 787 fleet is very appealing, hopefully the 781ER can fly similar distance to the 77W, that will suit most I think who operate it.

But if NZ can fill a daily 77W to IAH now and the 781 can’t fly it, that will be a substantial drop in seats given growth over the next few years. Longer term we will see more routes as well. I don’t personally expect NZ to change tack, not yet anyway. The 77W is good for several years a decade even if needed but would need a refresh of that were to happen.

From what I’ve heard, and understand from the pilots I’ve talked to on their walk arounds the 779 isn’t much better than the 77W! I think for Boeing to sell 779’s in the same way that they sold 77W’s they need to be much better. If airlines want to replace 77W’s with 781ER/IGW (or whatever they want to call it), they’ll need a few more of them to match the mighty 77W…!

If you can’t sell the extra seats then no point having the 779, given it is about operating cost and P2P flying then smaller aircraft do make sense. The 781 for NZ I would imagine to LAX/SFO in a reasonably premium configuration would seat 280/300. Similar to the code 3 789, 50J 52W 180Y or something similar imo. The 779 would allow 50-60 more Y seats if they felt they needed them or a few more J,W.

The 77W sold so well because it was so much better than the only direct competition the A346, and carriers like EK became a force with a huge fleet of 77Ws. Now you have the 787/A350 which this far the smaller 359/789 seems to be the sweet spot but the 77W replacement cycle hasn’t started yet so the 351 and an improved 781 should get plenty of orders, and the 779 which thus far has been ordered by airlines with F some of who have ordered the 351 also.

From various more knowledgeable posters than me, my understanding is that Boeing cannot realistically get the 781 to come anywhere near matching 77W in payload range - AFAIK this is not what is currently on the table; rather a payload boost of up to 6t - which is as far as Boeing can go without redesigning the wing / wing-box, which would be hugely expensive and time consuming.

So the performance improvements we are going to see might be in the region of 300-400km - not much more, on what the 781 can do at present. This could position the jet to reliably operate between AKL and LAX/SFO with some additional cargo down below, but not IAH or YVR.

If NZ is indeed experiencing higher than forecast demand and filling the 77W to IAH, I hope we will see them consider picking up another couple of units - as has been suggested above - and including them in the interior refit to bring the long-haul fleet up to a consistent standard.

zkncj wrote:

- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

BNE-DUD and maybe OOL/MCY-WLG or CHC (probably MCY if they don't want to compete with JQ and aim at the Northern Brisbane market on top of the Sunshine Coast/Gympie catchment).
The former route potentially partially subsidised by the Dunedin City Council and potential later routes ex-OOL or MCY partially subsidised by the State of Queensland's AAIF fund.

NZ321 wrote:

From various more knowledgeable posters than me, my understanding is that Boeing cannot realistically get the 781 to come anywhere near matching 77W in payload range - AFAIK this is not what is currently on the table; rather a payload boost of up to 6t - which is as far as Boeing can go without redesigning the wing / wing-box, which would be hugely expensive and time consuming.

So the performance improvements we are going to see might be in the region of 300-400km - not much more, on what the 781 can do at present. This could position the jet to reliably operate between AKL and LAX/SFO with some additional cargo down below, but not IAH or YVR.

If NZ is indeed experiencing higher than forecast demand and filling the 77W to IAH, I hope we will see them consider picking up another couple of units - as has been suggested above - and including them in the interior refit to bring the long-haul fleet up to a consistent standard.

And that is the thing, I’m just curious as to what others think, NZ planned almost 20 years ago to aim for a single type long haul fleet so I don’t see them changing suddenly overnight, given the existing 777 fleet though I think the 779 would stand a higher chance than a switch to the A350.

I guess though if the 781ER can do LAX/SFO then it doesn’t leave to many routes where the 789 is to small.

In terms of additional 77Ws, I could see 2 that potentially are operated as is if they come from the same source and can go backwards and forwards on the same route 99% of the time. Not sure if I would see a refit even for say a 3 year lease, I guess the seats from the 772 fleet could be used.?

SCFlyer wrote:

zkncj wrote:

- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

BNE-DUD and maybe OOL/MCY-WLG or CHC (probably MCY if they don't want to compete with JQ and aim at the Northern Brisbane market on top of the Sunshine Coast/Gympie catchment).
The former route potentially partially subsidised by the Dunedin City Council and potential later routes ex-OOL or MCY partially subsidised by the State of Queensland's AAIF fund.

Do VA need to run state subsidised routes? BNE-DUD I kind of get and OOL-CHC/WLG but MCY seems a bit out, small markets I would think.

NZ516 wrote:

Someone asked last month re the international A321s.
All 7 are back in service NNA to NNG and what is good to see all 6 320s are as well. NHA-NHF so that makes all 13 international 321/320s are on international routes. It must be a record as a few months ago 9 were on INT and 3 on DOM flying hopefully no more breakdowns as there is no spares available now.

That is pretty normal, mid DEC through late JAN for the whole fleet. Utilisation is high now on the A320/321 fleet with a lot of extra Pacific Island flying over the school holiday period. With that routes like WLG/CHC-SYD are still only a single daily service, I’m not sure if they plan to go back to 2 daily at some stage or not? QF have 2 daily SYD-WLG/CHC.

NZ516 wrote:

zkncj wrote:

2023 New Zealand Aviation Predictions:

- NZ will ‘officially’ place an order for a small 8-10 seater aircraft. More PR perspective of being green…
- NZ will order additional a321NEO’s, maybe with some XLR’s added into the mix?
- NZ will obtain 1-2 used 77W’s for the 2023/4 summer hoildays period, on a short term lease.
- JQ starts PER-AKL with there a321LR’s.
- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

I think you're right on with these predictions. JQ PER-AKL just as soon as they can get new ones in. NZ will order A321s for the international fleet as the domestic fleet will be enough with the 7 that they soon will have. Perhaps they will order a bigger electric plane with 20-25 seats. A bit more capacity will be needed over a 8-10 seater.

I would have thought PER-AKL a QF route, I could see that returning , not so sure on JQ.

I’m not sure NZ will get more narrow bodies yet either for international, more 77Ws to return and talk of 1-2 more mean they can fly short haul in between freeing up existing A321. Do they plan to add a second daily WLG/CHC-SYD though?

ZK-NBT wrote:

I would have thought PER-AKL a QF route, I could see that returning , not so sure on JQ.

Agreed, given Alan Joyce was on record when launching AKL-JFK as saying:

In addition to connecting flights from the east coast capitals, Joyce aims to see “hopefully more destinations flying into Auckland that will connect with, that so we provide one stop from all of the major capitals in Australia.”

PER is obviously one of the "major capitals of Australia" so would be included.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... d-new-york

What about PER-CHC - will we see a return of that connection in 2023 on NZ?

NZ516 wrote:

VN could start AKL with their 789s they have 4 more 781s on order which could free up a 789 to start flying down here.

As much as I'd love to see VN launch AKL, I'm not so sure - VN has major financial issues.

It will focus on corporate restructuring, improving operational efficiency, and increasing labor productivity to narrow its losses further.

https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news ... s-in-2022/

If they did decide to launch new markets, there are ports closer to home and bigger, like BNE.

That said, during a recent high-level visit to New Zealand, a Vietnamese official did note:

The Vietnamese airlines are ready to open direct flights to New Zealand’s major cities, he said.

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-gives ... 245056.vnp

NZ516 wrote:

77west wrote:

zkncj wrote:

2023 New Zealand Aviation Predictions:

- NZ will ‘officially’ place an order for a small 8-10 seater aircraft. More PR perspective of being green…
- NZ will order additional a321NEO’s, maybe with some XLR’s added into the mix?
- NZ will obtain 1-2 used 77W’s for the 2023/4 summer hoildays period, on a short term lease.
- JQ starts PER-AKL with there a321LR’s.
- VA returns to more Tasman ‘holiday market’ routes, but avoids the more business routes.

Happy New Year everyone. Would 8-10 seats work? The 1900D were 19 seats and NZ couldn't make them work.

Well actually the 1900D worked for quite some time. But with increasing costs of fuel and lower revenue with less seats they needed to be replaced. But an all electric plane the running costs will be much lower than a 1900D so should be profitable to operate.

I would have thought on the short sectors the 1900D operated, the costs of crew and other non-fuel costs would have made up a fairly big proportion of the trip costs. Electric is not going to change that a large amount. I guess maybe less maintenance.

SCFlyer wrote:

BNE-DUD

Dunedin Airport's new CEO will be pushing for Australia services:

“I will continue working with our airline partners to better connect the city and lower South Island to Australia. I know many people – on both sides of the Tasman – miss that direct connection into our great city.”

https://www.nbr.co.nz/nz-aviation-news/ ... n-airport/

As a wild card - I wonder if Bonza could be interested in MCY-DUD?

ZK-NBT wrote:

CZ to return to CHC-CAN

I could also see CX return to CHC for NW 23/24, under the NZ-CX JV. They are aiming to get back to pre-Covid capacity levels during 2024.

planemanofnz wrote:

SCFlyer wrote:

BNE-DUD

Dunedin Airport's new CEO will be pushing for Australia services:

“I will continue working with our airline partners to better connect the city and lower South Island to Australia. I know many people – on both sides of the Tasman – miss that direct connection into our great city.”

https://www.nbr.co.nz/nz-aviation-news/ ... n-airport/

As a wild card - I wonder if Bonza could be interested in MCY-DUD?

Bonza is struggling to get a AOC for Domestic flights, think would be a stretch for them to get approval to fly long overwater international sectors? Until they have proven them self.

Don’t think only have 4x 737-8MAX? Would think that planned fleet is already really stretched.

NZ516 wrote:

The 3rd level website has done a prediction for the year ahead. One suggested route that keeps coming back every year is AKL to MRO with Air Chathams. Not much else ...

They also predict 3C may get a 737 at some time this year - With the imminent completion of the extended runway on the Chatham Islands my prediction for 2023 is to look out for a Boeing 737. 3C has given indications for years that they were looking at the possibility of acquiring 737s, and last year were hiring for a 737 simulator technician (https://nz.joblum.com/job/flight-simula ... 737/625615). This will certainly be one area for us to watch in 2023!

Looking ahead to 2023 ...

Some possible growth developments:

- EK launches a second daily AKL flight via Southeast Asia (SIN/BKK).
- SQ brings the 388 back to AKL for NW 23/24, under the NZ-SQ JV.
- HU returns to AKL on the back of China's re-opening from Covid-19.
- D7 extends one of its Australian flights to CHC (perhaps seasonally).
- FJ re-launches AKL-SUV (AFAIK this route isn't currently operating, but correct me if wrong).
- ID extends one of its Australian flights to AKL (there were rumours on the 2022 Aussie thread).
- QF launches new Australia-AKL flights around the launch of AKL-JFK (perhaps PER to start).

On the flipside, some possible risks:

- HA/NZ have to cut back/drop AKL. AKL-HNL relies on Kiwi tourists to Hawaii, meaning the strong US dollar would be putting pressure on Hawaii's viability as a destination. HNL is also one of the only long-haul flights ex-AKL that isn't a monopoly.

- LA sees such a strong recovery ex-Australia that it launches SCL-SYD non-stop and either keeps SCL-AKL-SYD at a downgraded level (e.g. 3x weekly) or cuts us and channels Kiwi traffic via SYD. If this happens, maybe NZ would launch SCL?

- NF faces some sort of financial crisis and goes bust, leaving AKL without a link to VLI. Its sole leased 738 has proven unreliable in recent times - e.g. it was grounded for days last month. If this does eventuate, we may see NZ return to VLI.

- MH has to cut back/drop AKL. MH survived here over Covid partly thanks to reduced competition. Their 332 product to AKL is poor, and expensive - will they be able to sustain new business in the face of airlines returning to AKL, including D7?

planemanofnz wrote:

Looking ahead to 2023 ...

- NF faces some sort of financial crisis and goes bust, leaving AKL without a link to VLI. Its sole leased 738 has proven unreliable in recent times - e.g. it was grounded for days last month. If this does eventuate, we may see NZ return to VLI.

Did VLI ever fix there runway? NZ dropped VLI dropped VLI on the grounds there was a safety issue with the runway, and even stopped selling seats on NF for that reason too.

NF seems almost certain to fail this year, unless FJ buys them out? That would be probably there closest chance of hope.

How is AA's AKL-DFW doing now its daily competing with QF's 6x weekly SYD-DFW and 3x weekly MEL-DFW. I heard rumours of AA/QF adding BNE-DFW. AA's mega-hub is amazing serving every major North American city within 4 hours and the most popular Latin American destinations like NZ's AKL-IAH.

planemanofnz wrote:

Looking ahead to 2023 ...

Some possible growth developments:

- EK launches a second daily AKL flight via Southeast Asia (SIN/BKK).
- SQ brings the 388 back to AKL for NW 23/24, under the NZ-SQ JV.
- HU returns to AKL on the back of China's re-opening from Covid-19.
- D7 extends one of its Australian flights to CHC (perhaps seasonally).
- FJ re-launches AKL-SUV (AFAIK this route isn't currently operating, but correct me if wrong).
- ID extends one of its Australian flights to AKL (there were rumours on the 2022 Aussie thread).
- QF launches new Australia-AKL flights around the launch of AKL-JFK (perhaps PER to start).

On the flipside, some possible risks:

- HA/NZ have to cut back/drop AKL. AKL-HNL relies on Kiwi tourists to Hawaii, meaning the strong US dollar would be putting pressure on Hawaii's viability as a destination. HNL is also one of the only long-haul flights ex-AKL that isn't a monopoly.

- LA sees such a strong recovery ex-Australia that it launches SCL-SYD non-stop and either keeps SCL-AKL-SYD at a downgraded level (e.g. 3x weekly) or cuts us and channels Kiwi traffic via SYD. If this happens, maybe NZ would launch SCL?

- NF faces some sort of financial crisis and goes bust, leaving AKL without a link to VLI. Its sole leased 738 has proven unreliable in recent times - e.g. it was grounded for days last month. If this does eventuate, we may see NZ return to VLI.

- MH has to cut back/drop AKL. MH survived here over Covid partly thanks to reduced competition. Their 332 product to AKL is poor, and expensive - will they be able to sustain new business in the face of airlines returning to AKL, including D7?

SQ have said they don’t plan currently to bring the A380 back to AKL, I do agree AKL is a route where it makes sense certainly seasonal, they are with drawing it from FRA-JFK and additional SYD and MEL in May, but I could see AKL myself in NW23/24. NZ are using a 77W. Ow and again late March through mid May.

There is also CHC-SIN and and CHC-PER for NZ to consider, SIN to me probably more pressing. AKL-KIX seasonal NW23/24 to maybe.

HNL, HA connect from and to the mainland so I think should be ok at 3x weekly, NZ for July august have increased 3 to 5 weekly, don’t think they will drop or even go seasonal but maybe 2 weekly in NW23/24 if demand isn’t great.

I think we are more likely to see AKL-SIN go 4x daily next NW, than a SQ a380 return.

SQ has scraped a couple of a380s over covid, so has even less flexibility with sending a380 to AKL.

AKL-SIN could probably done 4x daily with 1.5 aircraft from NZ/SQ each.

I’m wondering if NZ did get two second hand 77W’s if they would be locked too AKL-SIN. It’s a reasonably short long haul flight and probably could support a large J cabin. Most second 77W’s out there, surely have a better J seat than NZ’s.

ZK-NBT wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Given what NZ are doing and sending the 77W to SIN and the way they are filling them, then some talk of adding a leased 1-2 makes me wonder what they will do, IAH will get them back in March to, the 781ER would need to be a hell of a plane to match the range of the 77W, the 789 can do IAH easily but is as we know much smaller.

Holiday Food for thought, certainly nothing I have seen points to NZ looking away from an all 787 fleet. Look at the recent UA order for 100 plus options plus what’s already in the fleet. How tempting is the 779?

As an opinion, I don't think the 779 is tempting currently due to the delays. If it was ontime and in service now, you'd probably hazard a guess that UA would have ordered a few of them instead of the 100 plus 787 options and you could probably guess that NZ would order a few to replace the 77W on current 77W routes with the 787 elsewhere.

If a 781ER comes out and matches the 77W in most aspects, I don't think the 779 has much of a future anywhere. If the 779 is more delayed, you could see the likes of EK reducing their order even more if not canx altogether and keep the A380 longer instead. The 77X would just turn into a cargo aircraft at that rate

Of course, just opinions and wild guesses

Happy New Year to all as well!

Not now no, I was meaning as a 77W replacement in the mid late 2020s. Re UA their 77W fleet was delivered 2016/19 very young.

The airlines who have ordered the 779 this far are premium airlines who in some cases or even most just want the additional floor space over the A35K which several also have ordered, most of them I think will take them, how many more airlines order them I don’t know.

It is about operating cost though so an all 787 fleet is very appealing, hopefully the 781ER can fly similar distance to the 77W, that will suit most I think who operate it.

But if NZ can fill a daily 77W to IAH now and the 781 can’t fly it, that will be a substantial drop in seats given growth over the next few years. Longer term we will see more routes as well. I don’t personally expect NZ to change tack, not yet anyway. The 77W is good for several years a decade even if needed but would need a refresh of that were to happen.

The awkward realities for NZ are that:

- they now seem to expect strongest future volumes and yields from North America

- meanwhile they are struggling to meet cargo demand – while looking ahead to a future in which cargo is a larger share of revenue mix

- three of their five US routes (JFK, ORD and IAH) are challenging in terms of aircraft capability, particularly west-bound with high pax load factors plus freight

- NZ have locked themselves into a single fleet strategy (based on the 787) that, even assuming a 6t MTOW increase for 789 and 78J, will struggle to deliver on the revenue potential of North American routes because of capability limitations

- they have lost the opportunity to build a new single-type long-haul fleet with capabilities improving on the 77Es and 77Ws but with modern economics

- two of the three types that might now feature in their future fleet planning (78J and 779) are problematic: 78J for lack of capability even in IGW form on routes such as IAH, and 779 because the economics will suffer from small sales, separate pilot pool and high structural weight.

zkncj wrote:

AKL-SIN could probably done 4x daily with 1.5 aircraft from NZ/SQ each.

Not possible. A return flight AKL-SIN requires a full 24 hours, so two aircraft each is the absolute minimum.

zkncj wrote:

I think we are more likely to see AKL-SIN go 4x daily next NW, than a SQ a380 return.

SQ has scraped a couple of a380s over covid, so has even less flexibility with sending a380 to AKL.

AKL-SIN could probably done 4x daily with 1.5 aircraft from NZ/SQ each.

I’m wondering if NZ did get two second hand 77W’s if they would be locked too AKL-SIN. It’s a reasonably short long haul flight and probably could support a large J cabin. Most second 77W’s out there, surely have a better J seat than NZ’s.

I would say additional NZ-SIN capacity would go to CHC, 3x AKL, 2x CHC over NW.

While some A380s have been retired leaving 12 in the fleet, they will only serve LHR in Europe 2x daily most of the year, no more ZRH/CDG/FRA-JFK though some could return.

Longer term perhaps 4x daily ex AKL, shorter term I see NZ using the 77W where available.

tealnz wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

As an opinion, I don't think the 779 is tempting currently due to the delays. If it was ontime and in service now, you'd probably hazard a guess that UA would have ordered a few of them instead of the 100 plus 787 options and you could probably guess that NZ would order a few to replace the 77W on current 77W routes with the 787 elsewhere.

If a 781ER comes out and matches the 77W in most aspects, I don't think the 779 has much of a future anywhere. If the 779 is more delayed, you could see the likes of EK reducing their order even more if not canx altogether and keep the A380 longer instead. The 77X would just turn into a cargo aircraft at that rate

Of course, just opinions and wild guesses

Happy New Year to all as well!

Not now no, I was meaning as a 77W replacement in the mid late 2020s. Re UA their 77W fleet was delivered 2016/19 very young.

The airlines who have ordered the 779 this far are premium airlines who in some cases or even most just want the additional floor space over the A35K which several also have ordered, most of them I think will take them, how many more airlines order them I don’t know.

It is about operating cost though so an all 787 fleet is very appealing, hopefully the 781ER can fly similar distance to the 77W, that will suit most I think who operate it.

But if NZ can fill a daily 77W to IAH now and the 781 can’t fly it, that will be a substantial drop in seats given growth over the next few years. Longer term we will see more routes as well. I don’t personally expect NZ to change tack, not yet anyway. The 77W is good for several years a decade even if needed but would need a refresh of that were to happen.

The awkward realities for NZ are that:

- they now seem to expect strongest future volumes and yields from North America

- meanwhile they are struggling to meet cargo demand – while looking ahead to a future in which cargo is a larger share of revenue mix

- three of their five US routes (JFK, ORD and IAH) are challenging in terms of aircraft capability, particularly west-bound with high pax load factors plus freight

- NZ have locked themselves into a single fleet strategy (based on the 787) that, even assuming a 6t MTOW increase for 789 and 78J, will struggle to deliver on the revenue potential of North American routes because of capability limitations

- they have lost the opportunity to build a new single-type long-haul fleet with capabilities improving on the 77Es and 77Ws but with modern economics

- two of the three types that might now feature in their future fleet planning (78J and 779) are problematic: 78J for lack of capability even in IGW form on routes such as IAH, and 779 because the economics will suffer from small sales, separate pilot pool and high structural weight.

Is it therefore even remotely plausible that NZ could consider wholesale long haul replacement with A359/A351 (on major assumptions that Airbus can make an attractive enough offer cost and delivery wise)? There could be some value from a marketing perspective for Airbus in turning a fairly staunch Boeing operator into a sole Airbus one.

ZKNZR wrote:

tealnz wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Not now no, I was meaning as a 77W replacement in the mid late 2020s. Re UA their 77W fleet was delivered 2016/19 very young.

The airlines who have ordered the 779 this far are premium airlines who in some cases or even most just want the additional floor space over the A35K which several also have ordered, most of them I think will take them, how many more airlines order them I don’t know.

It is about operating cost though so an all 787 fleet is very appealing, hopefully the 781ER can fly similar distance to the 77W, that will suit most I think who operate it.

But if NZ can fill a daily 77W to IAH now and the 781 can’t fly it, that will be a substantial drop in seats given growth over the next few years. Longer term we will see more routes as well. I don’t personally expect NZ to change tack, not yet anyway. The 77W is good for several years a decade even if needed but would need a refresh of that were to happen.

The awkward realities for NZ are that:

- they now seem to expect strongest future volumes and yields from North America

- meanwhile they are struggling to meet cargo demand – while looking ahead to a future in which cargo is a larger share of revenue mix

- three of their five US routes (JFK, ORD and IAH) are challenging in terms of aircraft capability, particularly west-bound with high pax load factors plus freight

- NZ have locked themselves into a single fleet strategy (based on the 787) that, even assuming a 6t MTOW increase for 789 and 78J, will struggle to deliver on the revenue potential of North American routes because of capability limitations

- they have lost the opportunity to build a new single-type long-haul fleet with capabilities improving on the 77Es and 77Ws but with modern economics

- two of the three types that might now feature in their future fleet planning (78J and 779) are problematic: 78J for lack of capability even in IGW form on routes such as IAH, and 779 because the economics will suffer from small sales, separate pilot pool and high structural weight.

Is it therefore even remotely plausible that NZ could consider wholesale long haul replacement with A359/A351 (on major assumptions that Airbus can make an attractive enough offer cost and delivery wise)? There could be some value from a marketing perspective for Airbus in turning a fairly staunch Boeing operator into a sole Airbus one.

No I don’t think so as good as the A350 is and would be for NZ and I don’t know that NZ would be that keen to go all Airbus in this day and age.

zkncj wrote:

I think we are more likely to see AKL-SIN go 4x daily next NW, than a SQ a380 return.

I can see an SQ 380 return. They already subbed in a 380 to AKL this season (on 23 December). There should be flack in the fleet over the NW period.

Alternatively, SQ may get TR to add AKL-SIN to take some of the pressure off mainline (and NZ) services. TR serve most major ports in Australia already.

zkncj wrote:

I’m wondering if NZ did get two second hand 77W’s if they would be locked too AKL-SIN. It’s a reasonably short long haul flight and probably could support a large J cabin. Most second 77W’s out there, surely have a better J seat than NZ’s.

Getting a plane with a high quality hard product will be key. AKL-SIN is one of NZ's most important routes - product consistency and quality will be key.

ZK-NBT wrote:

AKL-KIX seasonal NW23/24 to maybe.

Or AKL-HND instead?

NZ516 wrote:

... perhaps Bamboo could come to both BNE and AKL. They also have 789s and recently started MEL and SYD.

I don't see it. Bamboo has some governance issues to work through - last year, its Chairman and associates were arrested for stock market manipulation.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/b ... 45.article

NZ516 wrote:

VLI ... VA are about to return in March with flights to BNE and SYD.

VA are only going to fly ex-BNE to VLI - not ex-SYD to VLI.

https://www.dailypost.vu/news/virgin-au ... cef48.html

zkncj wrote:

NF seems almost certain to fail this year, unless FJ buys them out?

Alternatively, they may downsize? If they lose the 737, maybe they could do a VLI-NLK-AKL ATR-72 flight instead, presuming they keep the props!

zkncj wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

Looking ahead to 2023 ...

- NF faces some sort of financial crisis and goes bust, leaving AKL without a link to VLI. Its sole leased 738 has proven unreliable in recent times - e.g. it was grounded for days last month. If this does eventuate, we may see NZ return to VLI.

Did VLI ever fix there runway? NZ dropped VLI dropped VLI on the grounds there was a safety issue with the runway, and even stopped selling seats on NF for that reason too.

NF seems almost certain to fail this year, unless FJ buys them out? That would be probably there closest chance of hope.

Vanuatu government has said they will financially support them. They have good forward booking trends and are going to be leasing in capacity from partner airlines from what I understand.

planemanofnz wrote:

zkncj wrote:

NF seems almost certain to fail this year, unless FJ buys them out?

Alternatively, they may downsize? If they lose the 737, maybe they could do a VLI-NLK-AKL ATR-72 flight instead, presuming they keep the props!

LOL.... no thanks. Lack of freight capacity would be one of the issues... as well as turning a 3hr trip into a 5hr+ trip.

planemanofnz wrote:

zkncj wrote:

I think we are more likely to see AKL-SIN go 4x daily next NW, than a SQ a380 return.

I can see an SQ 380 return. They already subbed in a 380 to AKL this season (on 23 December). There should be flack in the fleet over the NW period.

Alternatively, SQ may get TR to add AKL-SIN to take some of the pressure off mainline (and NZ) services. TR serve most major ports in Australia already.

zkncj wrote:

I’m wondering if NZ did get two second hand 77W’s if they would be locked too AKL-SIN. It’s a reasonably short long haul flight and probably could support a large J cabin. Most second 77W’s out there, surely have a better J seat than NZ’s.

Getting a plane with a high quality hard product will be key. AKL-SIN is one of NZ's most important routes - product consistency and quality will be key.

ZK-NBT wrote:

AKL-KIX seasonal NW23/24 to maybe.

Or AKL-HND instead?

NZ516 wrote:

... perhaps Bamboo could come to both BNE and AKL. They also have 789s and recently started MEL and SYD.

I don't see it. Bamboo has some governance issues to work through - last year, its Chairman and associates were arrested for stock market manipulation.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/b ... 45.article

NZ516 wrote:

VLI ... VA are about to return in March with flights to BNE and SYD.

VA are only going to fly ex-BNE to VLI - not ex-SYD to VLI.

https://www.dailypost.vu/news/virgin-au ... arch-2023/ article_369b1bc4-ee4b-54fc-91be-ee9b14bcef48.html

The SQ A380 on 23/12 was subbed due snow in Europe and missed connections.

Not sure about TR in NZ as NZ/SQ chase the higher end, TR/SQ only coe exist in medium haul markets this far.

HND is poor on scheduling with either 15hrs on the ground or a late arrival 2200 with no connections available.