Welcome to the DC Airports Thread for 2023. This is for IAD, BWI, and DCA.

Continue discussions from the 2022 thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468529

General DC 2023 predictions:
-UA announces some new international routes from IAD later in the year. MXP/VCE/KEF may be some places to keep an eye on.
-WN stays rather stagnant at all 3. Maybe a new route/extra frequencies on some BWI routes. WN obviously has some work to do before going on a big route expansion.
-NK/F9 add a route or two from BWI
-AA quietly adds another route or two from DCA. Maybe SGF or SBN?
-Several DCA routes will see mainline service for some time. MEM/MCI/STL/MSP come to mind as possibilities.
-At least one new airline for IAD. Probably Norse since they’ve already hinted at it.

DC 2023 predictions:

DCA:
- More expansion of mainline service from AA
- Some airline tries to get slots at DCA but fails
- New routes quietly added to certain regional destinations but nothing too major

BWI:
- At least one ULCC decides to expand service at BWI (likely F9 or XP)
-Maybe a new route or two domestically from WN

IAD:
- LO announces WAW
- Norse announces LGW
- UA launches HND in March but delays GRU to November
- UA continues to add more mainline flights to IAD to replace flights on regional flights
- Maybe UA announces a cool new international destination (Idk when United will get its first XLR but once they do they should be able to add some cool new routes)


Also, not sure if DCA had more passengers than IAD this year (we may have to wait for the numbers to come out) but I expect IAD to have more passengers in 2023 (with BWI maintaining its position as the busiest of the three)

Would love to see an announcement on a full replacement of C/D at IAD. I know the “interim” gates are still in design, but sure would be nice to get a long-term commitment/investment from UA (and MWAA).

Happy New Year everyone!

Honestly, the only two things I truly wish for are:

1) The Centurion Lounge at DCA to fully open
2) More information from MWAA/actual renderings of the proposed C/D replacement concourse

I think we will likely see Norse announce IAD, as it's been rumored on a number of different sites. I think LOT is also a strong possibility, given that they announced IAD serve pre-pandemic...same with LX.

It's been discussed on the Alaska fleet/network thread that AS had purported "big plans" for their 7M8 fleet that will begin to be delivered this year. AS has a strong presence in WAS (for the east coast, that is), and I would argue that their strength in WAS is stronger than any other city on the coast. I wouldn't be surprised to see AS launch a seasonal IAD-ANC service with their 7M8. I could see an eventual resumption of PDX-BWI and/or an announcement of SAN/PDX-IAD.

N292UX wrote:

General DC 2023 predictions:
-AA quietly adds another route or two from DCA. Maybe SGF or SBN?

With lots of (mother's-side)-family in the SBN area (mom is from there) and having lived in the NoVA suburbs of DCA for nearly 40 years until moving to PHX in 3Q14, if they now start a DCA-SBN nonstop, I'll just kill myself LOL I had so wished that AL/US would have done this for a very long time. AL back in CV-580 days operated a DCA-BAL-SBN thru flight way back in late 60's/early 70s which we actually flew once; don't remember it as I was only like 4, but sure wish in adult years there'd been a nonstop! Connecting at CLE/ORD/CVG/DAY got old...even with delightful PI via DAY (which was the easiest of all).

I noticed that UA has suspended IAD-PDX/SMF for the rest of the winter. Is that an annual thing?

While the E175 is my favorite to fly on, I agree with the consensus here that mainline is coming more and more to National. Maybe AA will throw a CR7 to some smaller destination (is it political pandering or good business? Who can tell at DCA?), but my prediction is nothing large will happen this year at DCA. The one asterisk here is that this is contingent on the B6/NK merger. I have absolutely no idea how that would play out at DCA, if anything at all were to change.

I wish you IAD travelers good luck with your C/D replacement...

How much mainline expansion at DCA is really possible for AA? I'm pretty sure some of the slots are regional/commuter slots - those can't be used for mainline flights.

What continues to amaze me is that AA never put one of the 321T's on at least the evening DCA-LAX and morning LAX-DCA nonstops to be competitive with DL's 757 flights as they have Delta One. But it would seem it's not been an issue?

cathay747 wrote:

What continues to amaze me is that AA never put one of the 321T's on at least the evening DCA-LAX and morning LAX-DCA nonstops to be competitive with DL's 757 flights as they have Delta One. But it would seem it's not been an issue?

I believe the DL flight is the only transcon ex WAS that consistently features flat-bed seating.

UA usually (99%) of the time features widebodies/flat-beds on IAD-LAX/SFO, but sometimes they sporadically pull them off IAD-LAX. As it stands now UA has 1x 772 and 1x 77W on IAD-SFO, and 2x 772 and 1x 752 on IAD-LAX. There are some dates in this coming spring where no flat-beds are on IAD-LAX, and the largest aircraft is a 753 with standard domestic seating.

Considering UA doesn't regularly schedule flat-bed equipped aircraft on LAX/SFO-IAD redeyes (and usually schedules them on the morning/8AM and early afternoon/1PM departures) when they hypothetically would be "needed" most, tells me that there isn't a huge market for flat-bed seating on WAS transcon routes.

That said, I could see AA placing the A321XLR on DCA-SFO eventually.

USAirALB wrote:

Happy New Year everyone!
It's been discussed on the Alaska fleet/network thread that AS had purported "big plans" for their 7M8 fleet that will begin to be delivered this year. AS has a strong presence in WAS (for the east coast, that is), and I would argue that their strength in WAS is stronger than any other city on the coast. I wouldn't be surprised to see AS launch a seasonal IAD-ANC service with their 7M8. I could see an eventual resumption of PDX-BWI and/or an announcement of SAN/PDX-IAD.

I hope your 'thought' of AS getting into the WAS-SAN market comes true US'!

The carrier has a bit of history involving the market: back in 2012, as part of the last DCA Beyond-Perimeter hearing, AS did apply for DCA-SAN authorization, to no avail. Also, back in March 2017 (and continuing thru May 2020) AS operated a BWI-SAN r/t; the e/b flight was always a redeye, which was not optimal, & the route occasionally ran less than daily and/or seasonally for the last couple of years it operated. (I do not know the specific reason the route was dropped -- covid's appearance, pax numbers, operational issues, all?) Since then, no AS service has been offered, and there is no other OneWorld service between WAS & SAN.

In fact, the only service currently in the market is UA to Dulles -- 2/3 times a day -- and WN to BWI -- 1/2 daily r/t. Of course, I know that the only chance for a nonstop to Reagan from SAN is for AA or DL to move a changeable authorization* from LAX to SAN or for UA to slide their changeable one* down the coast from SFO. Yeah sure, that's likely... * - Special "moveable" slots awarded to the 4 large legacy cx in the 2012 DOT hearing mentioned above.

So the only realistic scenario is for some carrier to start a competitive flight between SAN and either IAD or BWI; my thinking is that the best shot at that happening is for AS (SAN being their largest focus city) to represent the OW alliance in starting either route. My thinking suggests that Dulles would be the better choice, especially now that the Silver Line is operating from IAD. As you know, and have already acknowledged, AS already serves all 3 airports, so they have fairly easy options.

Fingers crossed that someone will increase the amount of capacity and competition between Washington D.C. and San Diego soon! (Hello Alaska, are you there?!)

bb

USAirALB wrote:

cathay747 wrote:

What continues to amaze me is that AA never put one of the 321T's on at least the evening DCA-LAX and morning LAX-DCA nonstops to be competitive with DL's 757 flights as they have Delta One. But it would seem it's not been an issue?

I believe the DL flight is the only transcon ex WAS that consistently features flat-bed seating.

UA usually (99%) of the time features widebodies/flat-beds on IAD-LAX/SFO, but sometimes they sporadically pull them off IAD-LAX. As it stands now UA has 1x 772 and 1x 77W on IAD-SFO, and 2x 772 and 1x 752 on IAD-LAX. There are some dates in this coming spring where no flat-beds are on IAD-LAX, and the largest aircraft is a 753 with standard domestic seating.

Considering UA doesn't regularly schedule flat-bed equipped aircraft on LAX/SFO-IAD redeyes (and usually schedules them on the morning/8AM and early afternoon/1PM departures) when they hypothetically would be "needed" most, tells me that there isn't a huge market for flat-bed seating on WAS transcon routes.

That said, I could see AA placing the A321XLR on DCA-SFO eventually.

In your last sentence, I believe you meant DCA-LAX not SFO. But that said, I'm afraid you may be missing the point of my query, which had nothing to do with UA's ops at IAD. I'm specifically talking about the DCA nonstops on AA & DL and that given the competitiveness of the two on such an important route, it has always surprised me that AA never upgraded their flight which is at roughly the same time as DL's to a 321T to compete against DL having Delta One on their flight.

cathay747 wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

cathay747 wrote:

What continues to amaze me is that AA never put one of the 321T's on at least the evening DCA-LAX and morning LAX-DCA nonstops to be competitive with DL's 757 flights as they have Delta One. But it would seem it's not been an issue?

I believe the DL flight is the only transcon ex WAS that consistently features flat-bed seating.

UA usually (99%) of the time features widebodies/flat-beds on IAD-LAX/SFO, but sometimes they sporadically pull them off IAD-LAX. As it stands now UA has 1x 772 and 1x 77W on IAD-SFO, and 2x 772 and 1x 752 on IAD-LAX. There are some dates in this coming spring where no flat-beds are on IAD-LAX, and the largest aircraft is a 753 with standard domestic seating.

Considering UA doesn't regularly schedule flat-bed equipped aircraft on LAX/SFO-IAD redeyes (and usually schedules them on the morning/8AM and early afternoon/1PM departures) when they hypothetically would be "needed" most, tells me that there isn't a huge market for flat-bed seating on WAS transcon routes.

That said, I could see AA placing the A321XLR on DCA-SFO eventually.

In your last sentence, I believe you meant DCA-LAX not SFO. But that said, I'm afraid you may be missing the point of my query, which had nothing to do with UA's ops at IAD. I'm specifically talking about the DCA nonstops on AA & DL and that given the competitiveness of the two on such an important route, it has always surprised me that AA never upgraded their flight which is at roughly the same time as DL's to a 321T to compete against DL having Delta One on their flight.

Whoops, yes I meant DCA-LAX not SFO.

I get what you are saying, but I was using UA/IAD as an indication that there probably isn't enough premium traffic in WAS for a AA to justify using a low-density three-class aircraft on DCA-LAX. WAS-LAX isn't really high-yielding in any case IIRC, and most of the higher-yield traffic on the route tends to favor Dulles as most of the traffic (tech, defense, etc.) is located closer to IAD than DCA.

AA never traditionally treated DCA-LAX as a "premium" route like DL does...AA did do that for IAD-LAX, however. Up until Oasis, IAD-LAX (alongside BOS-LAX) was one of the routes where F pax were given upgraded bedding and were guaranteed to have on-demand entertainment via PTVs or Samsung tablets.

Looks like Air China will resume flights to IAD from PEK 3x weekly starting on March 2nd.

https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/a ... 27.article

mah584jr wrote:

Looks like Air China will resume flights to IAD from PEK 3x weekly starting on March 2nd.

https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/a ... 27.article

Interesting, as I was somewhat expecting them to drop IAD completely.

I always thought their minimal, 90s-era livery looked quite good on the 77W.

USAirALB wrote:

mah584jr wrote:

Looks like Air China will resume flights to IAD from PEK 3x weekly starting on March 2nd.

https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/a ... 27.article

Interesting, as I was somewhat expecting them to drop IAD completely.

I always thought their minimal, 90s-era livery looked quite good on the 77W.

It's a prestige route — I think Air China will always serve DC under normal circumstances. There's also quite a bit of US bound Chinese tourism to DC, so that will certainly resume shortly.

ditto the fact that there's a fairly substantial Chinese population in the DC area of course. the Asian population in the DC metro does still pivot very SE Asia-heavy (which KE, NH, and formerly CX were getting in on) but I'm sure between the tourism ties, local population, and UA connections from their IAD hub, the route will always be there.

USAirALB wrote:

cathay747 wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

I believe the DL flight is the only transcon ex WAS that consistently features flat-bed seating.

UA usually (99%) of the time features widebodies/flat-beds on IAD-LAX/SFO, but sometimes they sporadically pull them off IAD-LAX. As it stands now UA has 1x 772 and 1x 77W on IAD-SFO, and 2x 772 and 1x 752 on IAD-LAX. There are some dates in this coming spring where no flat-beds are on IAD-LAX, and the largest aircraft is a 753 with standard domestic seating.

Considering UA doesn't regularly schedule flat-bed equipped aircraft on LAX/SFO-IAD redeyes (and usually schedules them on the morning/8AM and early afternoon/1PM departures) when they hypothetically would be "needed" most, tells me that there isn't a huge market for flat-bed seating on WAS transcon routes.

That said, I could see AA placing the A321XLR on DCA-SFO eventually.

In your last sentence, I believe you meant DCA-LAX not SFO. But that said, I'm afraid you may be missing the point of my query, which had nothing to do with UA's ops at IAD. I'm specifically talking about the DCA nonstops on AA & DL and that given the competitiveness of the two on such an important route, it has always surprised me that AA never upgraded their flight which is at roughly the same time as DL's to a 321T to compete against DL having Delta One on their flight.

Whoops, yes I meant DCA-LAX not SFO.

I get what you are saying, but I was using UA/IAD as an indication that there probably isn't enough premium traffic in WAS for a AA to justify using a low-density three-class aircraft on DCA-LAX. WAS-LAX isn't really high-yielding in any case IIRC, and most of the higher-yield traffic on the route tends to favor Dulles as most of the traffic (tech, defense, etc.) is located closer to IAD than DCA.

AA never traditionally treated DCA-LAX as a "premium" route like DL does...AA did do that for IAD-LAX, however. Up until Oasis, IAD-LAX (alongside BOS-LAX) was one of the routes where F pax were given upgraded bedding and were guaranteed to have on-demand entertainment via PTVs or Samsung tablets.

OK now I get what you're saying, but it would seem to me that with their own large FF base in the DC metro area, inherited from US mind but still...and the popularity of DCA vs. IAD for many, that it would have maybe been a competitive improvement for AA to run 321T's on just the one DCA/LAX/DCA freq. which directly competes with DL's single flight as they are timed very close together. But clearly AA hasn't thought so, so it's really a moot discussion now.

You mention IAD/LAX/IAD...boy I remember the "good ole days" when back in the 90's up until 9/11 (roughly) AA designated the route as one of their "Flagship Service" routes, with 3-class DC-10's and 762's...their American Flagship First Class product was outstanding, complete with "The Caviar Cart" on AA143 and 075 IAD-LAX! Just magnificent, especially on the DC-10's when they still were on, as they had those fabulous "wooly mammoth" seats in First!

N292UX wrote:

General DC 2023 predictions:
-WN stays rather stagnant at all 3. Maybe a new route/extra frequencies on some BWI routes. WN obviously has some work to do before going on a big route expansion.

WN DCA-CMH nonstop service likely needs to be increased to at least 2 daily nonstops from 1 daily nonstop with WN having the GSA contract for DCA-CMH through at least 9/30/2023. WN was also operating 2 daily nonstops on DCA-CMH prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN re-adding DCA-IND nonstop service is a possibility if WN wins the DCA-IND GSA contract for FY 2024 as WN currently has the GSA contracts for other DCA-Midwest routes such as DCA-MDW/CMH/MCI/MKE/OMA/STL.

WN resuming daily nonstop service out of BWI to OAK/PDX/SMF/SJC/SEA is a possibility with OAK/PDX/SMF/SJC/SEA being 5 of the largest WN stations that don't currently have WN nonstop service out of BWI. WN also likely needs to resume at least BWI-OAK/PDX/SEA nonstop service to remain relevant in the BWI market. There are also still some smaller East Coast destinations served by WN that don't have AS service.

There was discussion about WN possibly adding BWI-LGB nonstop service with the additional LGB slots that will become available with AA completely pulling out of LGB on 2/28/2023 along with BWI being one of the top destinations traveled to from Greater Los Angeles on WN that doesn't currently have any nonstop service out of LGB.

While WN already serves HOU nonstop from both BWI and DCA, WN adding BWI-IAH nonstop service is a possibility with BWI being one of the top markets traveled to from Houston on WN.

WN re-adding BWI-LIT nonstop service is also a possibility with WN having re-added nonstop service out of BWI to some other destinations in the South such as GSP and JAN.

WN adding BWI-COS/DSM nonstop service are also possibilities with COS and DSM being two of the top contiguous U.S. destinations traveled to from the Baltimore/Washington region that don't currently have any nonstop service out of BWI.

GSP can likely support a second daily nonstop out of BWI on WN with WN having previously operated 2 daily nonstops on the BWI-GSP route 7 years ago. There are also only a few other WN stations east of the Mississippi River that currently have only 1 daily nonstop out of BWI such as BHM/GRR/JAN. There is also room for a second daily nonstop on WN BWI-GSP with UA no longer serving GSP nonstop from IAD.

WN adding IAD-DAL nonstop service is a possibility if WN needs to use some of the DCA slots that are currently used on DCA-DAL on other routes. IAD can also likely support more nonstop flights to the Dallas/Fort Worth market as there were more nonstop flights to DFW out of IAD prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

IAD can also likely support the return of WN nonstop service to MCO as WN was getting good load factors on IAD-MCO nonstop service last year. The main reason why WN dropped IAD-MCO nonstop service was due to the pilot shortages that WN is currently facing.

WN adding IAD-STL nonstop service is also a possibility with the connections that WN would be able to offer to destinations such as DSM/MCI/LIT/OKC/OMA/TUL. UA has already dropped IAD-OKC nonstop service, and DSM/LIT/OMA/TUL don't currently have any nonstop service out of IAD.

The WMATA Silver Line station to Ashburn (which includes a stop at IAD) is now open, and IAD can likely support more WN flights with the access that is now there to IAD on the WMATA Silver Line.

Unsure if this is in response to UA's additional frequency on the route (and they decided it would just be too much capacity), but it look like AF pulled their scheduled third frequency on IAD-CDG for this summer.

The agenda for Wednesday's MWAA Board meeting has posted: https://www.mwaa.com/event/january-18-2 ... e-meetings

Notable items include the expected groundbreaking this year of the new IAD concourse, with completion planned for 2026.

Runway paving work coming to DCA starting in mid April.
Work on 15-33 April 17-30
Then 1-19 work starting in May.
Sounds like all overnight work.

https://dcist.com/story/23/01/18/main-r ... r-repairs/

Loudoun supervisors have approved new noise contours based off of a 2019 study. Sounds like this will place more homes inside a higher noise zone than they were previously. It seems to me that developers/homeowners took a risk here given how close they were to runway 12/30 in particular.

https://www.loudounnow.com/news/loudoun ... 6713a.html

The article mentioned that those affected by the noise could appeal to the FAA to change their departure and arrival patterns to/from IAD, but is that realistic?

mah584jr wrote:

It seems to me that developers/homeowners took a risk here given how close they were to runway 12/30 in particular.

The article mentioned that those affected by the noise could appeal to the FAA to change their departure and arrival patterns to/from IAD, but is that realistic?

How many times has this happened across the country? It's insane! The airport has been operational since 1962. But yeah, build homes near it...so 50+ years later people can complain about noise!! Uh...the airport was already there when your home was built/when you bought your home. Piss off.

When we were house hunting out here in the PHX area, there was one community we loved but it was too close, I felt, to Luke AFB. Hell, you could hear the boys & girls having fun flying around in their Raptors while we were there! And the sales person was downplaying aircraft noise. Yeah, right. We didn't buy there for the very reason of aircraft noise. It's called due diligence. Or at least researching the area you're looking at.

cathay747 wrote:

mah584jr wrote:

It seems to me that developers/homeowners took a risk here given how close they were to runway 12/30 in particular.

The article mentioned that those affected by the noise could appeal to the FAA to change their departure and arrival patterns to/from IAD, but is that realistic?

How many times has this happened across the country? It's insane! The airport has been operational since 1962. But yeah, build homes near it...so 50+ years later people can complain about noise!! Uh...the airport was already there when your home was built/when you bought your home. Piss off.

When we were house hunting out here in the PHX area, there was one community we loved but it was too close, I felt, to Luke AFB. Hell, you could hear the boys & girls having fun flying around in their Raptors while we were there! And the sales person was downplaying aircraft noise. Yeah, right. We didn't buy there for the very reason of aircraft noise. It's called due diligence. Or at least researching the area you're looking at.

The biggest problem is there is no law requiring developers to clearly disclose it to buyers. If you are there on a day that runway is not in use you would not necessarily know. Same in my neighborhood near BWI - I'm five miles short of runway 10. If you visited on a day they were departing 28, those turn before they get to us so you would not know its a problem - but when landing 10, they all will overfly us. (Yes, I knew this when I bought the house - but I'm on this forum so clearly would not be a concern to me )

FWIW, same issue has happened with railroads too. Long Island City, NY had folks complaining about the trains idling next to their new condos mid-day - because of course the yard was empty at night/on the weekend when they had visited to buy it. The yard had only been there and in daily use for 120+ years.....

blockski wrote:

LoudounHound wrote:

The agenda for Wednesday's MWAA Board meeting has posted: https://www.mwaa.com/event/january-18-2 ... e-meetings

Notable items include the expected groundbreaking this year of the new IAD concourse, with completion planned for 2026.

Disappointed we haven’t seen any other updates on the IAD master plan yet.

Another interesting note in the air service development presentation is the passenger data from DCA and IAD, focusing on AA and UA respectively. Both have been transferring more pax than before the pandemic. Despite the near full recovery to 2019 levels at DCA, the type of traffic has changed.

The data suggested the same at IAD, but to a greater extent, where domestic O&D has been slower to return but transfer passengers are making up for it.

I imagine the main driver of this is less government travel related O&D traffic in the DC area with more things being done as virtual meetings still. Just leaves more seats available through both airports to be sold as connections.

Copa starting BWI 4x weekly on June 28. https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cn4a3eLtDH9/

BWIAirport wrote:

Copa starting BWI 4x weekly on June 28. https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cn4a3eLtDH9/

Mon, Wed, Sat, Sun
CM708 - Dep PTY 907 Arr BWI 1507
CM709 - Dep BWI 1622 Arr PTY 2022

BWIAirport wrote:

Copa starting BWI 4x weekly on June 28. https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cn4a3eLtDH9/

Wow this is great. I fly CM regularly from IAD but I live much closer to BWI.. I'll definitely be checking this flight out..

^ I found this about CM starting BWI to be quite surprising and it strikes me as very strange. Even at just 4x weekly, I can't see how this could be sustainable/profitable given what they have at IAD; I mean, what market is there to support flying to BWI in addition to IAD?

cathay747 wrote:

^ I found this about CM starting BWI to be quite surprising and it strikes me as very strange. Even at just 4x weekly, I can't see how this could be sustainable/profitable given what they have at IAD; I mean, what market is there to support flying to BWI in addition to IAD?

Same market Icelandair gets from BWI versus IAD, or BA (I know, subsidy, but still). While the Balt/DC region is largely congruent especially for longer travels (I live in Baltimore but often use IAD for long haul) they are far enough away to be considered different catchment areas for many intents and purposes.
With CM selling plenty of onward connections, they can establish themselves as the go-to for all BWI South American travels while still enjoying success in a heavier Star Alliance market at IAD.

BWIAirport wrote:

cathay747 wrote:

^ I found this about CM starting BWI to be quite surprising and it strikes me as very strange. Even at just 4x weekly, I can't see how this could be sustainable/profitable given what they have at IAD; I mean, what market is there to support flying to BWI in addition to IAD?

Same market Icelandair gets from BWI versus IAD, or BA (I know, subsidy, but still). While the Balt/DC region is largely congruent especially for longer travels (I live in Baltimore but often use IAD for long haul) they are far enough away to be considered different catchment areas for many intents and purposes.
With CM selling plenty of onward connections, they can establish themselves as the go-to for all BWI South American travels while still enjoying success in a heavier Star Alliance market at IAD.

The BWI flight can capture the Eastern DC suburbs, as well as Northern Maryland and Southern PA.. It's a bigger catchment than most realize.. Those people live closer to Philadelphia than IAD, but most use BWI as their home airport..

DCA350 wrote:

BWIAirport wrote:

cathay747 wrote:

^ I found this about CM starting BWI to be quite surprising and it strikes me as very strange. Even at just 4x weekly, I can't see how this could be sustainable/profitable given what they have at IAD; I mean, what market is there to support flying to BWI in addition to IAD?

Same market Icelandair gets from BWI versus IAD, or BA (I know, subsidy, but still). While the Balt/DC region is largely congruent especially for longer travels (I live in Baltimore but often use IAD for long haul) they are far enough away to be considered different catchment areas for many intents and purposes.
With CM selling plenty of onward connections, they can establish themselves as the go-to for all BWI South American travels while still enjoying success in a heavier Star Alliance market at IAD.

The BWI flight can capture the Eastern DC suburbs, as well as Northern Maryland and Southern PA.. It's a bigger catchment than most realize.. Those people live closer to Philadelphia than IAD, but most use BWI as their home airport..

Might it mean a loss of a few weekly flights from IAD? I mean, is their expectation to add net number of passengers for the region or to make it more convenient for the catchment area described above? Or plan C, to steal pax who were using DL and AA at BWI.... ?

stewartg wrote:

DCA350 wrote:

BWIAirport wrote:

Same market Icelandair gets from BWI versus IAD, or BA (I know, subsidy, but still). While the Balt/DC region is largely congruent especially for longer travels (I live in Baltimore but often use IAD for long haul) they are far enough away to be considered different catchment areas for many intents and purposes.
With CM selling plenty of onward connections, they can establish themselves as the go-to for all BWI South American travels while still enjoying success in a heavier Star Alliance market at IAD.

The BWI flight can capture the Eastern DC suburbs, as well as Northern Maryland and Southern PA.. It's a bigger catchment than most realize.. Those people live closer to Philadelphia than IAD, but most use BWI as their home airport..

Might it mean a loss of a few weekly flights from IAD? I mean, is their expectation to add net number of passengers for the region or to make it more convenient for the catchment area described above? Or plan C, to steal pax who were using DL and AA at BWI.... ?

Hard to say, that may be the case if everyone flying to a CM destination was making the drive to IAD and can now use BWI. That may be some, but like you said now if a Baltimorean wants to go to BOG they can choose BWI-PTY-BOG when they might've taken DL BWI-ATL-BOG or AA BWI-MIA-BOG.

DCA350 wrote:

BWIAirport wrote:

cathay747 wrote:

^ I found this about CM starting BWI to be quite surprising and it strikes me as very strange. Even at just 4x weekly, I can't see how this could be sustainable/profitable given what they have at IAD; I mean, what market is there to support flying to BWI in addition to IAD?

Same market Icelandair gets from BWI versus IAD, or BA (I know, subsidy, but still). While the Balt/DC region is largely congruent especially for longer travels (I live in Baltimore but often use IAD for long haul) they are far enough away to be considered different catchment areas for many intents and purposes.
With CM selling plenty of onward connections, they can establish themselves as the go-to for all BWI South American travels while still enjoying success in a heavier Star Alliance market at IAD.

The BWI flight can capture the Eastern DC suburbs, as well as Northern Maryland and Southern PA.. It's a bigger catchment than most realize.. Those people live closer to Philadelphia than IAD, but most use BWI as their home airport..

Even western DC suburbs are pretty accessible to BWI. Where I grew up in Rockville, BWI was never significantly further than IAD, but now with ICC open, even for places like Potomac and Travillah getting to BWI is a snap.

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

DCA350 wrote:

BWIAirport wrote:

Same market Icelandair gets from BWI versus IAD, or BA (I know, subsidy, but still). While the Balt/DC region is largely congruent especially for longer travels (I live in Baltimore but often use IAD for long haul) they are far enough away to be considered different catchment areas for many intents and purposes.
With CM selling plenty of onward connections, they can establish themselves as the go-to for all BWI South American travels while still enjoying success in a heavier Star Alliance market at IAD.

The BWI flight can capture the Eastern DC suburbs, as well as Northern Maryland and Southern PA.. It's a bigger catchment than most realize.. Those people live closer to Philadelphia than IAD, but most use BWI as their home airport..

Even western DC suburbs are pretty accessible to BWI. Where I grew up in Rockville, BWI was never significantly further than IAD, but now with ICC open, even for places like Potomac and Travillah getting to BWI is a snap.

I've got friends in Rockville. The big problem with IAD (and generally most nova)-MD is the bridge. If you hit it at the wrong time of day or if there's a wreck, you are screwed. Neither are particularly easy to get to by transit either.

USAirALB wrote:

an announcement of SAN/PDX-IAD.

One of my predictions has come true!

AS will launch IAD-SAN starting 15 June with a 739.

Alaska has a relatively impressive WAS schedule this summer, with 14 peak day departures:

AS553 IAD-SFO dep. 0645 (A321)
AS483 BWI-SEA dep. 0700 (739)
AS351 IAD-SEA dep. 0740 (739)
AS1 DCA-SEA dep. 0800 (738)
AS345 IAD-LAX dep. 0840 (A321)
AS5 DCA-LAX dep. 0910 (738)
AS499 IAD-SEA dep. 1000 (739)
AS415 IAD-SAN dep. 1015 (739)
AS7 DCA-SFO dep. 1715 (738)
AS379 BWI-SEA dep. 1730 (739)
AS3 DCA-SEA dep. 1735 (738)
AS406 IAD-SEA dep. 1825 (739)
AS9 DCA-PDX dep. 1835 (738)
AS435 IAD-SFO dep. 1955 (A321)

IIRC, there used to be an additional departure on IAD-LAX. Still wouldn't be surprised to see IAD-PDX one day.

AS just announced new nonstop between Dulles and SAN! Starting June 15:

Depart IAD 10:15am AS #451 739 Dly
Arrive SAN 12:30pm

Depart SAN 8:00am AS #400 739 Dly
Arrive IAD 4:10pm

Beautiful schedule! New competition for UA, by a new carrier, and a new Alliance - OW! Until such time as SAN is able to secure a nonstop to Reagan (DCA), this is a very nice step in the right direction.

Here's the PR: https://news.alaskaair.com/alaska-airli ... -nonstops/

bb

United has been cutting IAD-SAN down to only 2x daily, so they've been creating a real gap in the market....good to see AS step in to provide more competition.

Really like AS adding IAD-SAN. Definitely a route that could use some competition outside of UA.

IAD-LAS is another route that absolutely feels like it could use some more competition, more so with a LCC. Maybe G4 or WN could add IAD-LAS to some capacity down the road.

As i've posted before, the only service SAN has had to WAS for years has been UA to IAD and WN to BWI; we still have no service to DCA.

This means the OW alliance has had no service at all between SAN and WAS for years and I couldn't believe it was taking so long to improve service between the 2 areas! And I'm pretty sure the military traffic between San Diego and D.C will be delighted to have another choice of carriers. (Of course guess who have the 2 GSA contracts now for BWI & IAD? Right, WN & UA.)

It's great to see AS growing and expanding their network (connecting the dots), but it's Fantastic that today it's centered on their SoCal focus city!

bb

N292UX wrote:

Really like AS adding IAD-SAN. Definitely a route that could use some competition outside of UA.

IAD-LAS is another route that absolutely feels like it could use some more competition, more so with a LCC. Maybe G4 or WN could add IAD-LAS to some capacity down the road.

I agree that IAD-LAS could use another carrier. Though to be fair, both WN and F9 have tried it and neither lasted.

I also could see AS launching PDX-IAD at some point in the future.

FlyPNS1 wrote:

N292UX wrote:

Really like AS adding IAD-SAN. Definitely a route that could use some competition outside of UA.

IAD-LAS is another route that absolutely feels like it could use some more competition, more so with a LCC. Maybe G4 or WN could add IAD-LAS to some capacity down the road.

I agree that IAD-LAS could use another carrier. Though to be fair, both WN and F9 have tried it and neither lasted.

I also could see AS launching PDX-IAD at some point in the future.

F9 had that little base at IAD for a while and then pulled out. I wonder if in their post-COVID growth plans a return to IAD could happen. It could be a test for MWAA's "Metro makes IAD more accessible" theory.

FlyPNS1 wrote:

N292UX wrote:

Really like AS adding IAD-SAN. Definitely a route that could use some competition outside of UA.

IAD-LAS is another route that absolutely feels like it could use some more competition, more so with a LCC. Maybe G4 or WN could add IAD-LAS to some capacity down the road.

I agree that IAD-LAS could use another carrier. Though to be fair, both WN and F9 have tried it and neither lasted.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factor for WN IAD-LAS nonstop service in 2016:
91078 passengers, 102037 seats, 89.26% load factor

IAD can likely support the return of WN nonstop service to LAS with the amount of demand that was previously there for WN IAD-LAS nonstop service along with UA being the only airline currently serving LAS nonstop from IAD.

WN would likely be able to get more traffic onto IAD-LAS than it did 7 years ago if WN re-adds IAD-LAS nonstop service with
(a) the additional connecting opportunities that would now be available to FAT/LGB/PSP/SBA through LAS on WN,
(b) the WMATA Silver Line now open to IAD, and
(c) LAS being outside of the DCA perimeter.

jplatts wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

N292UX wrote:

Really like AS adding IAD-SAN. Definitely a route that could use some competition outside of UA.

IAD-LAS is another route that absolutely feels like it could use some more competition, more so with a LCC. Maybe G4 or WN could add IAD-LAS to some capacity down the road.

I agree that IAD-LAS could use another carrier. Though to be fair, both WN and F9 have tried it and neither lasted.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factor for WN IAD-LAS nonstop service in 2016:
91078 passengers, 102037 seats, 89.26% load factor

IAD can likely support the return of WN nonstop service to LAS with the amount of demand that was previously there for WN IAD-LAS nonstop service along with UA being the only airline currently serving LAS nonstop from IAD.

WN would likely be able to get more traffic onto IAD-LAS than it did 7 years ago if WN re-adds IAD-LAS nonstop service with
(a) the additional connecting opportunities that would now be available to FAT/LGB/PSP/SBA through LAS on WN,
(b) the WMATA Silver Line now open to IAD, and
(c) LAS being outside of the DCA perimeter.

Sure, but AA does have a DCA-LAS exemption and runs an A321 on it, so that's a decent amount of capacity to add to the two UA frequencies from IAD. Add to that the three carriers (including WN) at BWI, and you've got a fair number of seats.

And for a leisure destination like LAS, there's a lot more leakage between airports than there is for business traffic. Sure, you could add the flights and probably fill them. But at prices that would be profitable? Ehhhh...a lot less likely.