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India Aviation - 2023

Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:57 pm

Welcome to the India Aviation thread - 2023 edition.

Please continue to post your news and discussions below.

Link to the locked 2022 edition:
viewtopic.php?t=1468551
 
subramak1
Posts: 294
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:52 pm

Booked a ticket on MAA BOM SFO for February in W class by AI. Let us see how it goes, interested in trying it out.
 
FligtReporter
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sat Jan 07, 2023 2:56 pm

subramak1 wrote:
Booked a ticket on MAA BOM SFO for February in W class by AI. Let us see how it goes, interested in trying it out.


Best of luck do report to us how it went !
 
hohd
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:05 pm

FligtReporter wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
Booked a ticket on MAA BOM SFO for February in W class by AI. Let us see how it goes, interested in trying it out.


Best of luck do report to us how it went !


About a month ago, I went in similar class (W-economy) on DEL-ORD route. The flight I took is shorter than BOM-SFO. I had an ok experience, seats were comfortable, food excellent, toilets clean throughout the journey, flight arrived early, but IFE needs major improvement.
 
manny
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:01 pm

hohd wrote:
FligtReporter wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
Booked a ticket on MAA BOM SFO for February in W class by AI. Let us see how it goes, interested in trying it out.


Best of luck do report to us how it went !


About a month ago, I went in similar class (W-economy) on DEL-ORD route. The flight I took is shorter than BOM-SFO. I had an ok experience, seats were comfortable, food excellent, toilets clean throughout the journey, flight arrived early, but IFE needs major improvement.


I am hearing they are going to spend a boatload of money on upgrades.
 
sand26391
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:48 pm

BLR T2 to begin ops from 15th Jan 2023 as per some people on the ground and official confirmation to be out in the next 24hrs.
I believe I5, UK (and AI?) will move into T2 initially.
 
subramak1
Posts: 294
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 12:22 am

hohd wrote:
FligtReporter wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
Booked a ticket on MAA BOM SFO for February in W class by AI. Let us see how it goes, interested in trying it out.


Best of luck do report to us how it went !


About a month ago, I went in similar class (W-economy) on DEL-ORD route. The flight I took is shorter than BOM-SFO. I had an ok experience, seats were comfortable, food excellent, toilets clean throughout the journey, flight arrived early, but IFE needs major improvement.


Interesting, are you sure it was premium economy. I heard that only one plane has PE in AI Fleet and it flies BOM SFO only.

Best, Subramanian
 
FligtReporter
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:26 pm

Its that time of the year again and In a few days Im flying on my fav seasonal LKO-DEL-LKO sector given its my favourite season to fly i.e The CAT IIIB season and my homebase LKO, along with DEL are both CAT IIIB equipped I love to take such leisure flights every winter with next day early morning return.

I hope I get to experience CAT IIIB Landings both at DEL and LKO this time...these will be my 4th and 5th CAT IIIB flights having flown C3B landings before onboard IndiGo A321N and Air India 320N,320.

To all the aviation enthusiasts who have never experienced the magic of CATIIIB I'd recommend you all to take at least one early morning flight between late December to Late January to Delhi,Lucknow or Amrtisar from anywhere in India to feel the magic of autoland in CAT IIIB procedures....Its an experience to beheld !!
 
hohd
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:59 pm

subramak1 wrote:
hohd wrote:
FligtReporter wrote:

Best of luck do report to us how it went !


About a month ago, I went in similar class (W-economy) on DEL-ORD route. The flight I took is shorter than BOM-SFO. I had an ok experience, seats were comfortable, food excellent, toilets clean throughout the journey, flight arrived early, but IFE needs major improvement.



Interesting, are you sure it was premium economy. I heard that only one plane has PE in AI Fleet and it flies BOM SFO only.

Best, Subramanian


My mistake it was U class economy. Not premium economy. But seats were comfortable though. It was 772 (3-3-3 configuration).
 
hohd
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:05 pm

https://www.yahoo.com/news/first-flight ... 30311.html

GoFirst took off leaving 50 passengers on the bus in the airfield.

On another issue of buses or remote parking, on time arrival should be based on when the first passenger gets off from the bus and goes into the terminal, not when the door is open for the first passenger to get off. Some times it takes up to 30 minutes for the first passenger to get off the bus to go to the terminal. There should be an advantage for using the jetway vs bus.
 
3D101CA
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:09 pm

AI will be increasing LHR-DEL to 17 weekly flights.

https://simpleflying.com/heathrow-delhi-record-flights/

According to this article, AI will be ending service from LHR to Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Goa, Hyderabad, and Kochi. I guess service from secondary Indian cities to Europe is being cut. I guess the new strategy is to only fly to Europe from BOM and DEL now.

Maybe ATQ-BHX will be dropped and only a daily nonstop DEL-BHX will exist? No news on ATQ-BHX being cut now, but yet again ATQ is losing service to Europe once again partly with LHR being dropped.
 
subramak1
Posts: 294
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:56 pm

hohd wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
hohd wrote:

About a month ago, I went in similar class (W-economy) on DEL-ORD route. The flight I took is shorter than BOM-SFO. I had an ok experience, seats were comfortable, food excellent, toilets clean throughout the journey, flight arrived early, but IFE needs major improvement.



Interesting, are you sure it was premium economy. I heard that only one plane has PE in AI Fleet and it flies BOM SFO only.

Best, Subramanian


My mistake it was U class economy. Not premium economy. But seats were comfortable though. It was 772 (3-3-3 configuration).


Thanks. Glad to hear that seats were comfy. My last international trip by AI had broken seatbacks , IFE system was slow, the speaker jacks were loose but food was exceptional.

Best, Subramanian
 
hohd
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:08 pm

3D101CA wrote:
AI will be increasing LHR-DEL to 17 weekly flights.

https://simpleflying.com/heathrow-delhi-record-flights/

According to this article, AI will be ending service from LHR to Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Goa, Hyderabad, and Kochi. I guess service from secondary Indian cities to Europe is being cut. I guess the new strategy is to only fly to Europe from BOM and DEL now.

Maybe ATQ-BHX will be dropped and only a daily nonstop DEL-BHX will exist? No news on ATQ-BHX being cut now, but yet again ATQ is losing service to Europe once again partly with LHR being dropped.


This may be a mistake on AI's part. AI is the only operator on AMD and ATQ - LHR service. May be the yields were low, I can understand cutting ATQ, but why AMD. Also on the HYD route BA will now be the sole operator on that route, it was hard enough to get good fares on the HYD route, but now BA will increase it more.

AI is mistaken if it thinks most of these passengers on the nonstops will go via DEL or BOM, and will lose most of the connecting traffic to LHR from these cities, they will migrate to other carriers as there is no special incentive to fly AI now.
 
manny
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 11, 2023 6:02 pm

hohd wrote:
3D101CA wrote:
AI will be increasing LHR-DEL to 17 weekly flights.


This may be a mistake on AI's part. AI is the only operator on AMD and ATQ - LHR service. May be the yields were low, I can understand cutting ATQ, but why AMD. Also on the HYD route BA will now be the sole operator on that route, it was hard enough to get good fares on the HYD route, but now BA will increase it more.


AMD usually the yields are low.

This was the problem with old AI. It's route structure made no sense.

Now with the BOM and DEL focused they are finally getting putting together an optimal network that will utlilize aircraft optimally. I do not think they are focused on the AMD or ATQ traffic if they want to go some other route.
 
blrBird
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:43 pm

manny wrote:
hohd wrote:
3D101CA wrote:
AI will be increasing LHR-DEL to 17 weekly flights.


This may be a mistake on AI's part. AI is the only operator on AMD and ATQ - LHR service. May be the yields were low, I can understand cutting ATQ, but why AMD. Also on the HYD route BA will now be the sole operator on that route, it was hard enough to get good fares on the HYD route, but now BA will increase it more.


AMD usually the yields are low.

This was the problem with old AI. It's route structure made no sense.

Now with the BOM and DEL focused they are finally getting putting together an optimal network that will utlilize aircraft optimally. I do not think they are focused on the AMD or ATQ traffic if they want to go some other route.

Probably AI will be even more DEL/BOM focused than GOI AI, just the nature of being FSC makes sense as these 2 cities can consistently provide the pax through out the year.
Maybe later down you may see some inter-continental routes from other big metros otherwise they all will be left to foreign carriers or AIX for regional international routes!
 
subramak1
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:12 pm

blrBird wrote:
manny wrote:
hohd wrote:


AMD usually the yields are low.

This was the problem with old AI. It's route structure made no sense.

Now with the BOM and DEL focused they are finally getting putting together an optimal network that will utlilize aircraft optimally. I do not think they are focused on the AMD or ATQ traffic if they want to go some other route.

Probably AI will be even more DEL/BOM focused than GOI AI, just the nature of being FSC makes sense as these 2 cities can consistently provide the pax through out the year.
Maybe later down you may see some inter-continental routes from other big metros otherwise they all will be left to foreign carriers or AIX for regional international routes!


Many years ago, there was another thread here in Airliners.net about how Continental was flying to places like Glasgow and EDiburgh from EWR while BA did not fly from those cities to NYC. The best response was that Continental was connecting its hubs to different cities in Europe and BA was doing the same with London as its hub. Given current state of AI, it can only support two hubs. I do suspect we will some international connections out of BLR, MAA and HYD sooner than later. AI is doing the right thing now by strengthening its main hubs. Give them another 12 - 18 months and let us see where they are. They are getting another 4 777 200 LR. I suspect they will be used to make SFO-BOM/BLR daily.
 
DIJKKIJK
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:32 am

blrBird wrote:
manny wrote:
hohd wrote:


AMD usually the yields are low.

This was the problem with old AI. It's route structure made no sense.

Now with the BOM and DEL focused they are finally getting putting together an optimal network that will utlilize aircraft optimally. I do not think they are focused on the AMD or ATQ traffic if they want to go some other route.

Probably AI will be even more DEL/BOM focused than GOI AI, just the nature of being FSC makes sense as these 2 cities can consistently provide the pax through out the year.
Maybe later down you may see some inter-continental routes from other big metros otherwise they all will be left to foreign carriers or AIX for regional international routes!


Not much traffic from cities other than DEL and BOM? Tell that to EK/BA/QR/EY/LH/AF who operate to multiple Indian cities other than DEL and BOM, with some doing several flights a day!
The BOM/DEL focus has destroyed AI with the m*r*ns at AI and the GoI being clueless. I really hope the Tatas adopt a pan-India approach. Thankfully, they seem to be doing it.

A country like India needs to folow the US model with multiple hubs all over the country, and not the European/middle east model with just one big hub.
 
oceanvikram
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:50 am

DIJKKIJK wrote:
Not much traffic from cities other than DEL and BOM? Tell that to EK/BA/QR/EY/LH/AF who operate to multiple Indian cities other than DEL and BOM, with some doing several flights a day!


True, however you forget that these foreign airlines have a pretty good connectivity from their respected hubs to North America and Europe. While AI is stuck with point to point.

Hence ATQ, AMD and other 2nd tier cities are not profitable, sure they will be in the future but not for at least 5 years.

DIJKKIJK wrote:
The BOM/DEL focus has destroyed AI with the m*r*ns at AI and the GoI being clueless. I really hope the Tatas adopt a pan-India approach. Thankfully, they seem to be doing it.


Yes the morons at GoI ruined the airline, but AI was far from just 2 hubs business. They were and are plenty of flights from 2nd and even 3rd tier cities in India to the Gulf. The Indian air traffic market does not revolve around Europe and North America alone.

DIJKKIJK wrote:
A country like India needs to folow the US model with multiple hubs all over the country, and not the European/middle east model with just one big hub.


If you are meaning geographically, maybe. If you are speaking market wise, not for the time being. Yet, definitely India will eventually be similar to China within 10 years.

Remember AI is now expected to be profitable, because I as a Tata shareholder expect it so. If 2 hubs will give me the returns that I expect, so be it. Or I’ll invest my money elsewhere.

That is the US model!
 
SATexan
Posts: 305
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:27 pm

I hope the Tatas stop running charity service from Kerala to Gulf. For example: Calicut/Kannur to Sharjah/Ras-al-Khaimah/Al Ain among other destinations are around 200$ even during peak or last minute travel. These routes are more than 4 hours long and do come with decent baggage allowance. If you trying booking a flight to DXB for the end of Jan/early Feb, BLR averages about 360$ a RT where as COK, which is about the same stage-length averages 260$, primarily due to Air India Express and SpiceJet. What's the point of operating such low cost flights? Keralites lead India in remittances. Why then does AIX feel the need to subsidize their travel?

Secondly, they need to rethink their hub strategy. It is true that historically DEL has led O&D. There were several reasons for that and not worth discussing at this time. But those dynamics have changed significantly in the last 15--20 years. As an aggregate, the South (BLR, MAA, HYD, GOI, COK) has bigger O&D and better revenue than DEL. Corporate travel in the entire North region is to Delhi/Noida and that's about it. Corporate travel in the South is more spread out with BLR taking the cream. It therefore makes no sense to funnel passengers from South India through DEL to destinations in EU/North America/ Australia. Mumbai is a very good alternative. But until Navi Mumbai comes along AI cannot scale the operations to the size they are imagining with 500+ aircrafts. So AI HAS to develop a hub in the South right away.
 
VTORD
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:55 pm

DIJKKIJK wrote:
Not much traffic from cities other than DEL and BOM? Tell that to EK/BA/QR/EY/LH/AF who operate to multiple Indian cities other than DEL and BOM, with some doing several flights a day!
The BOM/DEL focus has destroyed AI with the m*r*ns at AI and the GoI being clueless. I really hope the Tatas adopt a pan-India approach. Thankfully, they seem to be doing it.

A country like India needs to folow the US model with multiple hubs all over the country, and not the European/middle east model with just one big hub.

With the exception on BA (HYD), the EU airlines only really serve 2 cities outside of BOM/DEL - BLR and MAA and those have been around a while. The ME airlines benefit from a very significant O&D market of Indians working in the Gulf and tourism in addition to what they carry from the EU, Africa and NA. If you think of it from a NA perspective, really the only flights benefiting from NA traffic are their 10:30 PMish bank from DOH/DXB. AUH I believe is the 12:00 noon time frame given EY's US routes. It's not the BOM/DEL focus that destroyed AI. Is that a big factor in ME3 gaining ground? Yes. Is it the principal reason of why AI is in hole? Hell no.

And India does not need multiple hubs all over the country. Geographically the country isn't nearly as large as the US to warrant something like that. BLR should be the next hub to focus on for airlines but beyond that in a country where most flights are 2 hours or less, that's not a smart move.
 
sabby
Posts: 533
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:44 pm

Anyone interested to know the profitability of routes can do searches in Google flights / other OTAs for all the tier 1 and 2 cities to/from major european and north american cities. Surprisingly in my research, the highest yields are usually at BLR and CCU. BLR obviously makes a lot of sense considering the huge corporates and subsequently getting more and more non stop conectivity to Europe (and NA if not for the Russian Air space restriction). CCU really surprised me as I assumed it is mostly VFR but I guess for a city of its size its quite underserved. EK have double dailies and still charge a premium and unlike MAA with another big city BLR closeby, CCU pax have no nearby alternative.
 
bostrv
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Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:54 pm

SATexan wrote:
I hope the Tatas stop running charity service from Kerala to Gulf. For example: Calicut/Kannur to Sharjah/Ras-al-Khaimah/Al Ain among other destinations are around 200$ even during peak or last minute travel. These routes are more than 4 hours long and do come with decent baggage allowance. If you trying booking a flight to DXB for the end of Jan/early Feb, BLR averages about 360$ a RT where as COK, which is about the same stage-length averages 260$, primarily due to Air India Express and SpiceJet. What's the point of operating such low cost flights? Keralites lead India in remittances. Why then does AIX feel the need to subsidize their travel?



Really? AIX was created just so that AI could still milk the Kerala Gulf routes, without having to fly those routes themselves. IX was the only profitable part of AI at the time of the sale, IX was always profitable, even during the mandate where a percentage (>10%, might have been as high as 20%) of the revenue had to be "given" to AI.
 
yashk
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu May 12, 2016 2:45 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:10 pm

SATexan wrote:
I hope the Tatas stop running charity service from Kerala to Gulf. For example: Calicut/Kannur to Sharjah/Ras-al-Khaimah/Al Ain among other destinations are around 200$ even during peak or last minute travel. These routes are more than 4 hours long and do come with decent baggage allowance. If you trying booking a flight to DXB for the end of Jan/early Feb, BLR averages about 360$ a RT where as COK, which is about the same stage-length averages 260$, primarily due to Air India Express and SpiceJet. What's the point of operating such low cost flights? Keralites lead India in remittances. Why then does AIX feel the need to subsidize their travel?

Secondly, they need to rethink their hub strategy. It is true that historically DEL has led O&D. There were several reasons for that and not worth discussing at this time. But those dynamics have changed significantly in the last 15--20 years. As an aggregate, the South (BLR, MAA, HYD, GOI, COK) has bigger O&D and better revenue than DEL. Corporate travel in the entire North region is to Delhi/Noida and that's about it. Corporate travel in the South is more spread out with BLR taking the cream. It therefore makes no sense to funnel passengers from South India through DEL to destinations in EU/North America/ Australia. Mumbai is a very good alternative. But until Navi Mumbai comes along AI cannot scale the operations to the size they are imagining with 500+ aircrafts. So AI HAS to develop a hub in the South right away.


How does it make a difference if South India pax connect in DEL vs BOM. Total travel distance wise both DEL and BOM are equal (with DEL being slighly shorter): http://www.gcmap.com/dist?P=BLR-ORD%0D% ... SG=&SU=mph
With Tata taking over AI, all decisions are numbers backed and they are in this business to make money. Tata discontinued BLR-FRA and BLR-LHR and Air India continues to fly most EU/NA routes from Delhi. If South India did have more O&D and revenue we would see Tata shift some capacity down south however since that has not happened yet I highly doubt your claim of South India making a lucrative hub than DEL.
 
SATexan
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:16 am

One of my pet peeves is how Indian citizens or lawmakers did not seek responses via RTI or questions in the Parliament regarding P&L data for flights operated by Air India, when they were still a government run airline. The RASM data would have revealed to the whole world how unprofitable some of the routes were (ATQ/DEL-BHX, AMD-LHR/EWR, DEL-PVG/KIX on and on). With Tatas we won't be able to find out this information.

yashk wrote:
How does it make a difference if South India pax connect in DEL vs BOM. Total travel distance wise both DEL and BOM are equal (with DEL being slighly shorter)

Your distance argument is fair enough. But BLR in particular has the highest yields to North America and Europe. Tech traffic (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Apple, SAP, Intel, Texas Instruments, Nvidia, Samsung, Qualcomm, HP, IBM, Tesla, Oracle, Cisco, Infosys, Wipro, Mindtree, HCL among many others) flows out of South India. Why route high yielding traffic out of DEL and add connecting time (and it's not like connecting in DEL is a walk in the park) when you can fly directly from a South Indian hub? Also, HYD is quickly turning into the # 1 market to India from several US cities - Dallas & Chicago jump out of mind immediately. HYD may not have yields but there is a richness of volume. To turn volume into yield AI has to lockup some contracts or fly directly from there.

Also, AI flies to Sydney, Melbourne, Tokyo, Shanghai (discontinued), Seoul, Hong Kong exclusively from DEL. These routes have major corporate traffic from the South and going via DEL is quite a detour. Sydney - BLR on Qantas is averaging 90+% LF. I suspect similar numbers of JAL on BLR-NRT.

yashk wrote:
With Tata taking over AI, all decisions are numbers backed and they are in this business to make money. Tata discontinued BLR-FRA and BLR-LHR and Air India continues to fly most EU/NA routes from Delhi. If South India did have more O&D and revenue, we would see Tata shift some capacity down south however since that has not happened, yet I highly doubt your claim of South India making a lucrative hub than DEL.

Any person with GDS access can give you the 2022 O&D numbers. 2022 was still a recovery year from the pandemic. Despite that, as I have mentioned earlier, South Indian market as an aggregate (BLR, MAA, HYD, GOI, COK + others) is now larger than the North Indian block (DEL, ATQ, JAI, LKO etc) even to a city like London. I fully expect that in 2023 the O&D from India to US is going to explode and most of that will be to the South. There are subscription services that give out premium class bookings for flights by fare codes and you can see how well the flights to BLR do.

For all the hype, the Tatas couldn't operate Vistara profitably. People can disagree with me, but the DEL/BOM strategy did not work for Vistara, did not work for legacy AI and I am not sure why it will work for the new AI. I live in Texas & I could randomly survey a hundred Indian origin people in Austin /San Antonio/ Dallas, and a significant majority will be travelers to South India (or West) whereas only a handful will be travelers to Delhi.

AI's move to shift some secondary cities to LGW to LHR may work. But discontinuing BLR-FRA and BLR-LHR are baffling. Numbers don't lie! Both these route pairs can take a second daily. I fully expect some other airline to come and fill this void sometime in the near future.
 
manny
Posts: 631
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:59 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:20 am

[quote="DIJKKIJK"

A country like India needs to folow the US model with multiple hubs all over the country, and not the European/middle east model with just one big hub.[/quote]

Let them make one decent hub first. Than we talk about multiple hubs.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:07 pm

SATexan wrote:
One of my pet peeves is how Indian citizens or lawmakers did not seek responses via RTI or questions in the Parliament regarding P&L data for flights operated by Air India, when they were still a government run airline. The RASM data would have revealed to the whole world how unprofitable some of the routes were (ATQ/DEL-BHX, AMD-LHR/EWR, DEL-PVG/KIX on and on). With Tatas we won't be able to find out this information.


ATQ/DEL-BHX I think we all can agree that this is purely VFR market.
AMD-LHR/EWR I think we all can agree that this is purely VFR market and hubris to waste a LHR slot. Most likely to appease Prime Minister Modi.
DEL-PVG/KIX I think we can all agree that this is purely a prestige route and not sure about the tag on to KIX from PVG. Even with the 5th freedom, no Chinese nor Japanese will fly AI unless it is more or less free.

Tatas have moved AMD flights from LHR to LGW, brilliant move! Frees up LHR slots for flights that can attract passengers who will fly in J class all year round.

SATexan wrote:
Your distance argument is fair enough. But BLR in particular has the highest yields to North America and Europe. Tech traffic (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Apple, SAP, Intel, Texas Instruments, Nvidia, Samsung, Qualcomm, HP, IBM, Tesla, Oracle, Cisco, Infosys, Wipro, Mindtree, HCL among many others) flows out of South India. Why route high yielding traffic out of DEL and add connecting time (and it's not like connecting in DEL is a walk in the park) when you can fly directly from a South Indian hub? Also, HYD is quickly turning into the # 1 market to India from several US cities - Dallas & Chicago jump out of mind immediately. HYD may not have yields but there is a richness of volume. To turn volume into yield AI has to lockup some contracts or fly directly from there.


Ok, may I ask the following on the assumption that AI under GoI was the most unprofessional and mismanaged airline in comparison to the western ones:

1) Why is AA and UA not flying from ORD directly to HYD as well as AA from DFW? (Before the pandemic.)

2) If there is "richness of volume" how come UA, AA and DL did not buy A380s and flew them to BLR and HYD? (Before the pandemic.)

SATexan wrote:
Also, AI flies to Sydney, Melbourne, Tokyo, Shanghai (discontinued), Seoul, Hong Kong exclusively from DEL. These routes have major corporate traffic from the South and going via DEL is quite a detour.


Any business owned by the government including in the west, the primary objective is not profit. They provide intrinsic value such as employment, high cost training and serving markets that are not profitable but good for the masses. Therefore SYD and MEL were purely for VFR markets and Tokyo for prestige however Tata believe it can be made profitable. Discerning premium travellers will avoid AI if they have options such as SQ, CX, QF, NH and JL. Corporate travellers in OZ do not fly with AI (unless it is an Indian company) even if they have to do 8hrs layover. That is the reality.

Secondly DEL, not only has corporate traffic but a small tourist traffic as well. There is the golden triangle (Old) Delhi, Agra, Jaipur and then there are those who are interested in spirituality such as Rishikesh, Dharmashala and Bodha Gaya. And you will always get a group who will go to the Himalayas to climb some mountains because they are over 25,000ft tall.

Then you have the VFR market to Ludhiana, Ambala and the entire state of Haryana. This group is highly price sensitive, even one of the posters in this forum was kind enough to post in a different forum that they were going to create a gofundme page so that my mother in law could come visit us in Perth, Australia from Shimla (yes I know that it is in Himachal Pradesh).

Fourthly for what it is worth Delhi is the capital so as India gets closer to the west including Japan (there have been many joint military exercises between India, Australia and Japan), you are going to get some government official on board the aircraft on regular bases.

SATexan wrote:
SYD - BLR on Qantas is averaging 90+% LF. I suspect similar numbers of JAL on BLR-NRT.


Ok let us say JAL and QF have 90% LF, for fun let us assume that they are flying daily (I know they are not, but for simplicity sake). Does that warrant a second daily or at least increase in capacity? This could be either by the incumbents or as you put it by AI.

Based on your hypothesis, AI removes couple of assets where Tata's believe are or will be profitable and puts it in the markets where the load factor is 90% when there is only one airline servicing it. So now AI starts say BLR - SYD. Are you saying that QF's LF will reduce to 45% and AI's will be 45% ie the planes are going to be less than half full? Or are you saying that AI will grab the entire 90% LF from QF, ie an inferior hard product to QFs, especially where it counts, J class?

Same goes for BLR - NRT.

SATexan wrote:
For all the hype, the Tatas couldn't operate Vistara profitably. People can disagree with me, but the DEL/BOM strategy did not work for Vistara, did not work for legacy AI and I am not sure why it will work for the new AI.


Tell me one full service carrier, with its aircrafts having the Indian flag painted on, that has survived without GoI's intervention and I will tell you the name of a pig that flies. I will even go further to say that even during JRD's time AI never made a profit (we will never know though).

SATexan wrote:
I live in Texas & I could randomly survey a hundred Indian origin people in Austin /San Antonio/ Dallas, and a significant majority will be travelers to South India (or West) whereas only a handful will be travelers to Delhi.


Sure, I won't doubt what you are saying and you think there is a market.

So here is another question for you, why has UA and AA not flying from IAH and DFW respectively to BLR, HYD and/or MAA? If AI is not doing anything about it and there is a market that is profitable, under the US corporate law and Delaware state codes, UA's and AA's leadership should be sued by the shareholders.

SATexan wrote:
But discontinuing BLR-FRA and BLR-LHR are baffling. Numbers don't lie! Both these route pairs can take a second daily. I fully expect some other airline to come and fill this void sometime in the near future.


Not entirely true, AI will be flying BLR-LHR once the newly leased aircrafts arrive. AI could potentially code share BLR-FRA with LH but I am not sure if they can, since it will be a monopoly.

Sorry for being crude.

Look there is a lot of hurt within the South Indian community in India and abroad, I get it. They are being ignored by the Hindi speaking rulers in Delhi and the financiers in Mumbai, even though it is the least corrupt, most organised, safer and cleanest region as compare to rest of India.

Being from Perth, I feel that QF has neglected PER and I call it SYDAS, the way Scotts and northern English call BA, London Airways. Then look at AI, their livery is not inclusive of all Indians, because if it were then some aircrafts will be in Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, Malayalam and other Dravidian languages along with English. Might as well call it Air Hind.

At the end of the day BOM and DEL is where everyone is focusing on if you are a full service airline. If not the risks are just too high even if the numbers don't lie, it is basically the FOMO (fear of missing out). But definitely the south is the next big growth, so it will be BLR no doubt and maybe even HYD, MAA or both.
 
hohd
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:04 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
SATexan wrote:


DEL-PVG/KIX I think we can all agree that this is purely a prestige route and not sure about the tag on to KIX from PVG. Even with the 5th freedom, no Chinese nor Japanese will fly AI unless it is more or less free.


So here is another question for you, why has UA and AA not flying from IAH and DFW respectively to BLR, HYD and/or MAA? If AI is not doing anything about it and there is a market that is profitable, under the US corporate law and Delaware state codes, UA's and AA's leadership should be sued by the shareholders.

At the end of the day BOM and DEL is where everyone is focusing on if you are a full service airline. If not the risks are just too high even if the numbers don't lie, it is basically the FOMO (fear of missing out). But definitely the south is the next big growth, so it will be BLR no doubt and maybe even HYD, MAA or both.


Chinese like Indians like bargains, they will fly AI if the price is right. Japanese, may be not.

AI should consider DFW-DEL-HYD (same plane) service, as HYD is no. 1 destination from DFW area now. AI was the pioneer on the SFO-DEL and now they can look at DFW. AA cannot due to Russia flight restrictions.

Also effectively only DEL is a true hub, while BOM is more of a focus city. The 2x daily to LHR from BOM will carry only some connecting passengers as AI does not serve BOM as extensively as DEL, they are hoping to cash on the O&D.
 
subramak1
Posts: 294
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:21 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:50 pm

yashk wrote:
SATexan wrote:

How does it make a difference if South India pax connect in DEL vs BOM. Total travel distance wise both DEL and BOM are equal (with DEL being slighly shorter): http://www.gcmap.com/dist?P=BLR-ORD%0D% ... SG=&SU=mph
With Tata taking over AI, all decisions are numbers backed and they are in this business to make money. Tata discontinued BLR-FRA and BLR-LHR and Air India continues to fly most EU/NA routes from Delhi. If South India did have more O&D and revenue we would see Tata shift some capacity down south however since that has not happened yet I highly doubt your claim of South India making a lucrative hub than DEL.


AI is right to prioritize its focus on DEL/BOM. But note that they rather started new service from SFO to BLR rather than making the service to DEL twice daily. Challenge AI and any air line out of India will have is that. outside of service to immediate ME and SE Asia, most of our international traffic is to Northern European trio of Germany, France, UK and US, Canada in North America. Serving these from hub at DEL will work perfectly fine during the consolidation phase. As Indian economy grows and international traffic returns during the post pandemic recovery, we will see AI expand services out of BOM at first, BLR next and later add MAA/HYD.

1. Out of BOM - expect new services to ORD, YYC and conversion of SFO to daily.
2. out of BLR - return of LHR, may be addition of FRA and a service to NYC
3. Out of MAA/HYD - a service to NYC and ORD would come about.

Best, Subramanian
 
Sindhuputra
Posts: 34
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:09 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:29 pm

Vistara 789

As per this article , the 3 789 that had been lived to Vistara order have now been all delivered to Lufthansa . Wonder what has happened here ? Could have always come to Ai …


https://simpleflying.com/threes-a-crowd ... oeing-787/
 
Sindhuputra
Posts: 34
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:09 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:35 pm

If we want aviation sector in india to really take off , and jobs to be created - we need the opposite . Restrict number of international airports and focus on a few - will allow more p2p by Indian airlines to happen and move traffic away from the middle eastern / ASEAN hub carriers .. and this should be the plan for next 15-20 years . After which hopefully we will have enough demand from many places that our model can be US like . Else we will keep ex - india international travel with foreign carriers largely


manny wrote:
[quote="DIJKKIJK"

A country like India needs to folow the US model with multiple hubs all over the country, and not the European/middle east model with just one big hub.


Let them make one decent hub first. Than we talk about multiple hubs.[/quote]
 
WestWing
Posts: 1257
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 2:01 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:51 am

Former Delta/Mammoth 777-200LR N707DN was ferried to Singapore in late December for painting/preparation for lease to Air India. In addition, N704DK was recently registered to JETRAN LLC - which is an indicator that N704DK will likely be the next frame sent over to Singapore for preparation for AI.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 3059
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:25 am

Sindhuputra wrote:
Vistara 789

As per this article , the 3 789 that had been lived to Vistara order have now been all delivered to Lufthansa . Wonder what has happened here ? Could have always come to Ai …


https://simpleflying.com/threes-a-crowd ... oeing-787/

You are mixing apples and oranges. Boeing has 5 ex-Hainan aircraft which it couldn't take because of financial problems. Boeing painted them in Vistara colors and hoped to place it with them, instead of Vistara waiting for its own. However, Vistara refused to buy it. It is now again being repainted in Lufthansa livery which picked them all up at opportunistic prices. So, in a nutshell, those 5 never actually belonged to Vistara.

Vistara has 4 outstanding 787s:
    3 that were previously assembled and awaiting rework; VT-TSH VT-TSN and VT-TSO.
    1 is brand new fresh off assembly line.
Internet chatter assumes 3 will be delivered in 2023 and 1 in 2024.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 3059
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:30 am

subramak1 wrote:
2. out of BLR - return of LHR
Best, Subramanian


And where will the LHR slots come from?
 
User avatar
Spiderguy252
Posts: 1293
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 10:58 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:07 am

edealinfo wrote:
Sindhuputra wrote:
Vistara 789

As per this article , the 3 789 that had been lived to Vistara order have now been all delivered to Lufthansa . Wonder what has happened here ? Could have always come to Ai …


https://simpleflying.com/threes-a-crowd ... oeing-787/

You are mixing apples and oranges. Boeing has 5 ex-Hainan aircraft which it couldn't take because of financial problems. Boeing painted them in Vistara colors and hoped to place it with them, instead of Vistara waiting for its own. However, Vistara refused to buy it. It is now again being repainted in Lufthansa livery which picked them all up at opportunistic prices. So, in a nutshell, those 5 never actually belonged to Vistara.

Vistara has 4 outstanding 787s:
    3 that were previously assembled and awaiting rework; VT-TSH VT-TSN and VT-TSO.
    1 is brand new fresh off assembly line.
Internet chatter assumes 3 will be delivered in 2023 and 1 in 2024.


1. Why did Vistara refuse the Hainan 787s?
2. What rework is needed on the three frames in question?
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:29 pm

Lets do some back of the napkin calculation to see if the following holds true:
subramak1 wrote:
1. Out of BOM - expect new services to ORD, YYC and conversion of SFO to daily.
2. Out of MAA/HYD - a service to NYC and ORD would come about.

hohd wrote:
AI should consider DFW-DEL-HYD (same plane) service, as HYD is no. 1 destination from DFW area now. AI was the pioneer on the SFO-DEL and now they can look at DFW. AA cannot due to Russia flight restrictions.


First the assumptions (Feel free to update these assumptions):
The definition of a route being a success is profitability. (remember AI us is owned 75% by Tata and 25% by SIA group, they have shareholders like me and debts to be paid off.)
The route has to be profitable within 3 years from strarting.
Flight time circa 17hrs either way between North America and India. (for simplicity sake)
AI needs to procure additional B787-8 to service these routes.
A B787-8 operating cost, for passenger service is circa USD14,400/hr.

"Depending on numerous factors, the average price for a pre-owned BOEING 787-8 is $175,000,000.00. A $87,500,000.00 loan over 120 months including $364583.33 per month in interest equates to a $4,387,575.02 per-period payment. Based on 450 annual owner-operated hours and $7.00-per-gallon fuel cost, the BOEING 787-8 has total variable costs of $5,976,900.00, total fixed costs of $532,500.00, and an annual budget of $6,509,400.00. This breaks down to $14,465.33 per hour." (https://www.aircraftcostcalculator.com/ ... eing+787-8)

Now the calculations:
For a 17hrs flight the cost is circa USD244,000.
Only 26 x 17hrs sectors can be done per year.
To cover just a weekly operation to the aforementioned routes, AI will need 2 x 787-8 and therefore the weekly cost comes to USD488,000.

Anecdotes:
Indians and NRIs want AI to be a world class airline that they can be proud off (I think we all can agree on that), so lets use the seating arrangement of AC ie 20J (all aisle access), 21Y+ and 214Y.
hohd wrote:
... Indians like bargains, they will fly AI if the price is right.

SATexan wrote:
I live in Texas & I could randomly survey a hundred Indian origin people in Austin /San Antonio/ Dallas, and a significant majority will be travelers to South India (or West) whereas only a handful will be travelers to Delhi.


So my question to you all is the following:
How much are you willing to pay for the aforementioned flights?
How much are you willing to pay for to ensure AI is profitable?
How many times are you willing to fly per year?
How many of your Indian/NRI friends are planning to travel to North America/India during offseason? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)
How many of your colleagues are going on a business trip to North America/India? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)
Which of your colleagues are flying J to North America/India? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)

Further more, another question:
How much money and for how long should AI loose until India's growing economy makes them profitable?

Conclusion:
Weekly operating cost USD488,000 for second hand 787-8 on a 17hrs flight time.

You guys are the market and based on the above assumptions, calculations and anecdotes; the only aforementioned flight that will happen is daily BOM-SFO. The rest not during my time, maybe DFW-DEL but that is more than 10 years away.

Happy to be wrong and I am sure some of you will correct me and/or personally attack me (like the person who was planning to setup a gofundme page for my mother in laws travels.)
 
VTORD
Posts: 877
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 3:25 pm

oceanvikram wrote:

How much are you willing to pay for the aforementioned flights?
How much are you willing to pay for to ensure AI is profitable?
How many times are you willing to fly per year?
How many of your Indian/NRI friends are planning to travel to North America/India during offseason? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)
How many of your colleagues are going on a business trip to North America/India? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)
Which of your colleagues are flying J to North America/India? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)


Most if not all of these are just hypothetical and ridiculously subjective questions (if not meaningless).

Example, Q2: It is not my (passengers) responsibility to ensure AI is profitable. It wasn't when it was owned by GoI and it isn't when it is a privately owned entity now. It is for it's owner(s) to decide what is the minimum level of revenue/profit they would deem acceptable and charge ticket prices accordingly.

Q1: The subjectivity of this question is so large, it is ridiculous. A lot of it is dictated by location, access to airports, cost of accessing the nearest convenient airport, personal financial situation, whether you are a DINK couple or have 2 kids and 1 income, not to mention personal preference etc.,.

I prefer saving travel time over price so I am willing to pay a little more to save time but I also know friends who will choose to save on the price and pick a longer, more stops kind of flight. We live within 1.5 hours of 3 decent size airports, only one of whom has a single TATL flight that connects to/from BOM, my preferred destination. Flying from either of these is avg $300 premium/ticket v driving 4 hours to a major airport with ME+AI service. I know what I would do. But I know friends in my circle who do the 4 hour hike, sometimes with kids and elderly parents.

oceanvikram wrote:
Further more, another question:
How much money and for how long should AI loose until India's growing economy makes them profitable?

Only the Tatas and their stakeholders (like SQ) can / should answer this question. Anyone else is just noise.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:29 pm

VTORD wrote:
Most if not all of these are just hypothetical and ridiculously subjective questions (if not meaningless).


I used to work in management consulting (frequent travelling made me an aviation enthusiast), we ask and answer these type of questions so the clients can make such decisions (an example):
https://www.reuters.com/article/airindi ... NL8N3453NF

Take it what you will.

VTORD wrote:
Only the Tatas and their stakeholders (like SQ) can / should answer this question. Anyone else is just noise.


Well said!
 
subramak1
Posts: 294
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:21 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:39 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
Lets do some back of the napkin calculation to see if the following holds true:
subramak1 wrote:
1. Out of BOM - expect new services to ORD, YYC and conversion of SFO to daily.
2. Out of MAA/HYD - a service to NYC and ORD would come about.

hohd wrote:
AI should consider DFW-DEL-HYD (same plane) service, as HYD is no. 1 destination from DFW area now. AI was the pioneer on the SFO-DEL and now they can look at DFW. AA cannot due to Russia flight restrictions.


First the assumptions (Feel free to update these assumptions):
The definition of a route being a success is profitability. (remember AI us is owned 75% by Tata and 25% by SIA group, they have shareholders like me and debts to be paid off.)
The route has to be profitable within 3 years from strarting.
Flight time circa 17hrs either way between North America and India. (for simplicity sake)
AI needs to procure additional B787-8 to service these routes.
A B787-8 operating cost, for passenger service is circa USD14,400/hr.

"Depending on numerous factors, the average price for a pre-owned BOEING 787-8 is $175,000,000.00. A $87,500,000.00 loan over 120 months including $364583.33 per month in interest equates to a $4,387,575.02 per-period payment. Based on 450 annual owner-operated hours and $7.00-per-gallon fuel cost, the BOEING 787-8 has total variable costs of $5,976,900.00, total fixed costs of $532,500.00, and an annual budget of $6,509,400.00. This breaks down to $14,465.33 per hour." (https://www.aircraftcostcalculator.com/ ... eing+787-8)

Now the calculations:
For a 17hrs flight the cost is circa USD244,000.
Only 26 x 17hrs sectors can be done per year.
To cover just a weekly operation to the aforementioned routes, AI will need 2 x 787-8 and therefore the weekly cost comes to USD488,000.

Anecdotes:
Indians and NRIs want AI to be a world class airline that they can be proud off (I think we all can agree on that), so lets use the seating arrangement of AC ie 20J (all aisle access), 21Y+ and 214Y.
hohd wrote:
... Indians like bargains, they will fly AI if the price is right.

SATexan wrote:
I live in Texas & I could randomly survey a hundred Indian origin people in Austin /San Antonio/ Dallas, and a significant majority will be travelers to South India (or West) whereas only a handful will be travelers to Delhi.


So my question to you all is the following:
How much are you willing to pay for the aforementioned flights?
How much are you willing to pay for to ensure AI is profitable?
How many times are you willing to fly per year?
How many of your Indian/NRI friends are planning to travel to North America/India during offseason? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)
How many of your colleagues are going on a business trip to North America/India? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)
Which of your colleagues are flying J to North America/India? (lets keep it simple for the week commencing 31st Jan, 2023)

Further more, another question:
How much money and for how long should AI loose until India's growing economy makes them profitable?

Conclusion:
Weekly operating cost USD488,000 for second hand 787-8 on a 17hrs flight time.

You guys are the market and based on the above assumptions, calculations and anecdotes; the only aforementioned flight that will happen is daily BOM-SFO. The rest not during my time, maybe DFW-DEL but that is more than 10 years away.

Happy to be wrong and I am sure some of you will correct me and/or personally attack me (like the person who was planning to setup a gofundme page for my mother in laws travels.)


Thanks for the info on per hr flight costs. Ideally for most of these stage lengths AI will need B789 not 788. Two indicators of demand

a) the backlog of B1 visa requests in India for US. I expect to AI to add these services over the next 12-18 months.
b) The number of services operated by US3 to India

I am sure AI management worked out their numbers before deciding to lease 5 new B77L.

As I stated earlier, the most likely thing to happen would be BOM SFO or SFO BLR becomes daily. I could bet either way between these two cities. But looking at the order for 777 200 LRs, they are looking at longer stage lengths and higher demand ( 291 seats with Premium economy thrown in). The allure of reaching BOM, BLR non stop is actually quite high. I was talking to a childhood friend who lives in SFO and whose parents live in Western TN 4 hrs from BLR. The fact that you could leave SFO on a friday night and get to your hometown by Sunday mornng and leave your hometown sunday morning and be in SFO by Sunday was pretty appealing to him. I am sure there are more who will opt for this service as this gets publicized and as long AI does a good job.

If India US market were not very big, you will not see US3 operate to India. For many of us who left India long time ago, we dont understand how big this market has grown. India has more people than Japan with $ 10,000 or more in disposable income.

As my 10 year old joked when were in Chennai in 2020, I see more benzes in Anna Nagar than in Bellevue.

By the way, I am will be checking out AI's BOM SFO service in a couple of weeks. I am hoping for a decent experience.

Best, Subramanian
Last edited by subramak1 on Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
hohd
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:41 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
Lets do some back of the napkin calculation to see if the following holds true:
subramak1 wrote:
1. Out of BOM - expect new services to ORD, YYC and conversion of SFO to daily.
2. Out of MAA/HYD - a service to NYC and ORD would come about.

hohd wrote:
AI should consider DFW-DEL-HYD (same plane) service, as HYD is no. 1 destination from DFW area now. AI was the pioneer on the SFO-DEL and now they can look at DFW. AA cannot due to Russia flight restrictions.


You guys are the market and based on the above assumptions, calculations and anecdotes; the only aforementioned flight that will happen is daily BOM-SFO. The rest not during my time, maybe DFW-DEL but that is more than 10 years away.



Before AI started SFO, the critics said the same thing. AI's flight to SFO would not work, it is Ultra long flight, there are many convenient one stop options.
But AI started this flight, even before UA did (which probably had the same traffic projection info) and became successful, in fact UA just merely copied it. UA also copied DEL-ORD too the same way. If AI can start BLR-SFO, which is primarily O&D, they can start DFW-DEL, with connections at DEL. Not immediately, but within a year once they get the required aircraft.

Market size and demand keep changing, 10 years from now may be too late. Right now there is no competition from US/Canada carriers, if AI wants to consider DFW (about 3 times a week) this is about the right time. Passengers now prefer nonstops and there is no US carrier which will start the route and cannibalize. It appears unlikely that any US carrier will start for the next 3 years, until then AI can see how the route does. The HYD addition would be a bonus as many from DFW area go to HYD, even it is not premium yield, they still make the volume. In fact some would even drive to DFW from Austin to go to India.
 
SATexan
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:21 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
1) Why is AA and UA not flying from ORD directly to HYD as well as AA from DFW? (Before the pandemic.)

1. AA and UA did announce SEA/SFO-BLR prior to the pandemic.
2. AA from DFW does not have the aircrafts with range to reach South India. DEL is the best they can possibly do. Even that may require capacity restrictions.
3. I don't know why UA has not started flying to HYD but I do know that their RM analysts have looked at HYD. Obviously, there is a lot that goes into actually launching a flight - cargo, fuel prices, available frames, security, government regulations, crew contracts etc. US-South India will require 2 (possibly 3) dedicated frames and airlines always have to decide on the best options for those frames. It's not like they have spare frames sitting around. Look at how the Russian airspace issue is playing a role in some routes getting delayed. Likewise, when Pakistani airspace was closed, the AI flights from DEL to certain cities had to take a long detour.

oceanvikram wrote:
2) If there is "richness of volume" how come UA, AA and DL did not buy A380s and flew them to BLR and HYD? (Before the pandemic.)

UA, AA and DL have never even considered buying A380s and so that question cannot be answered. Even when they operated 5 times a day flights from JFK/ORD to LHR, AA didn't even bother ordering 744 let alone A380.
Also, please look at the financial histories of UA, AA and DL since 9-11 to the decade after that.

oceanvikram wrote:
Ok let us say JAL and QF have 90% LF, for fun let us assume that they are flying daily (I know they are not, but for simplicity sake). Does that warrant a second daily or at least increase in capacity? This could be either by the incumbents or as you put it by AI.

Ofcourse, that warrants a capacity increase. It can be frequency increase, upgauge an existing aircraft, redeploying asset from DEL or start a new route. There is also a lot of traffic that leaks to Australia and Japan through Singapore, Thai and Malaysia.

oceanvikram wrote:
Based on your hypothesis, AI removes couple of assets where Tata's believe are or will be profitable and puts it in the markets where the load factor is 90% when there is only one airline servicing it. So now AI starts say BLR - SYD. Are you saying that QF's LF will reduce to 45% and AI's will be 45% ie the planes are going to be less than half full? Or are you saying that AI will grab the entire 90% LF from QF, ie an inferior hard product to QFs, especially where it counts, J class?
Same goes for BLR - NRT.

There is no hypothesis about reduced LFs. Historical facts suggest that non stop routes stimulate demand & O&D numbers. For example, prior to Emirates launching nonstops to continents far away, the O&D from those cities to DXB were in lower two digits (30,40, 50 etc). Once EK started nonstop flights the O&D on the same routes have increased many folds. So AI launching BLR-SYD will stimulate more demand and in the absence of pandemic or recession, both airlines will coexist just fine. The 1-stop carriers on the BLR-SYD route may feel some pinch with the availability of a new nonstop.

oceanvikram wrote:
Tell me one full service carrier, with its aircrafts having the Indian flag painted on, that has survived without GoI's intervention and I will tell you the name of a pig that flies. I will even go further to say that even during JRD's time AI never made a profit (we will never know though).

Corruption has been institutionalized. That's all I can say. Bureaucrats & Ministers in India believe they can run temples, hospitals, airlines and just about everything. But the reality is organized loot. Indian taxpayers must demand better.

oceanvikram wrote:
If AI is not doing anything about it and there is a market that is profitable, under the US corporate law and Delaware state codes, UA's and AA's leadership should be sued by the shareholders.

Sued by shareholders for not launching a route? What are you even talking about? Both of these airlines filed for bankruptcy, emerged through Chapter 11 restructuring and went through mergers not too long ago. They have their own debt problems and the shareholders aren't suing them for that.
Are you just making arguments for the sake of making arguments?

oceanvikram wrote:
At the end of the day BOM and DEL is where everyone is focusing on if you are a full service airline. If not the risks are just too high even if the numbers don't lie, it is basically the FOMO (fear of missing out). But definitely the south is the next big growth, so it will be BLR no doubt and maybe even HYD, MAA or both.

DEL had the mover's advantage. Capital city with the Indian bureaucracy controlling every investment in to the country. Lack of open skies agreements, lack of international airports in South India, and points-of-call agreement with countries that ONLY included DEL and BOM were some reasons why DEL had some disproportionate air traffic growth. Those days are over! Increasingly matters related to investments are being handled directly by the states themselves. States are deciding policies and any "palm greasing" happens at the State level and not at the central/Federal level.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 3059
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:34 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Vistara has 4 outstanding 787s:
    3 that were previously assembled and awaiting rework; VT-TSH VT-TSN and VT-TSO.
    1 is brand new fresh off assembly line.
Internet chatter assumes 3 will be delivered in 2023 and 1 in 2024.

1. Why did Vistara refuse the Hainan 787s?
2. What rework is needed on the three frames in question?


Answer
1. Because it wasn't the identical internal configuration of what was required by Vistara.

2. Rework is taking the whole aircraft apart and putting it back together. It takes more time & effort than assembling a brand new 787. Boeing has already written off an average of $15 to $20 million on each 787 that requires rework. The rework is required on all yet-to-be delivered 787s (before line # 1127) per agreement by the FAA and Boeing. It stems from various quality control failures, and now FAA has to certify each 787 before delivery (regardless of whether freshly assembled or ones going through rework).
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:08 am

AI’s nonstop aren’t successful because they are nonstop per se (the allure comment above). The length of flight typically means saving just a few hours - so not that appealing on some levels (I think SFO is the exception). What IMHO has made nonstops so successful have been - 1) connecting in EU wrecked your sleep schedule. You basically fall asleep for 3 hours and then are landing in AMS, CDG from a flight from JFK and (2) the delays/ misconducts we have been seeing for flights for the past 4 years or so with the added fact that there is sully just one flight to the Indian city form the EU hub.

Btw my flight from BOM-AMS-ZRH on KLM in late December moved from 2am to 4am departure from BOM - what a KILLER 4am is - no human should have to go through that departure time. BOM was a pleasure to fly through and the common J lounge is still quite good. And no stamping and checking of boarding pass with those electric gates.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:15 am

subramak1 wrote:
Thanks for the info on per hr flight costs. Ideally for most of these stage lengths AI will need B789 not 788. Two indicators of demand

a) the backlog of B1 visa requests in India for US. I expect to AI to add these services over the next 12-18 months.
b) The number of services operated by US3 to India

I am sure AI management worked out their numbers before deciding to lease 5 new B77L.

As I stated earlier, the most likely thing to happen would be BOM SFO or SFO BLR becomes daily. I could bet either way between these two cities. But looking at the order for 777 200 LRs, they are looking at longer stage lengths and higher demand ( 291 seats with Premium economy thrown in). The allure of reaching BOM, BLR non stop is actually quite high. I was talking to a childhood friend who lives in SFO and whose parents live in Western TN 4 hrs from BLR. The fact that you could leave SFO on a friday night and get to your hometown by Sunday mornng and leave your hometown sunday morning and be in SFO by Sunday was pretty appealing to him. I am sure there are more who will opt for this service as this gets publicized and as long AI does a good job.

If India US market were not very big, you will not see US3 operate to India. For many of us who left India long time ago, we dont understand how big this market has grown. India has more people than Japan with $ 10,000 or more in disposable income.


All valid points, some additional thoughts to consider:
For a second hand 787-9 operating, I guess it would be circa USD500,000 for 1 weekly trip per year. The point was how much should AI charge for all the classes so that they can make profit?
I suspect most of the B1 visa requests are going to get cancelled. Tech companies are reducing their headcount and so are the banks or at least a hiring freeze. (I hope I am wrong, not having a job is one of the worst feelings.)
US3 are making more money elsewhere hence you do not see a sizeable foot print in India.
BOM SFO and SFO BLR daily - Sure, I suspect AI has now one of the largest corporate client in India ... all the Tata companies (for both international and domestic travel)! As well as GoI for international flights (I don't know what their domestic travel policy is).
I am very much keen on reading your travel report. I am sure you will have a positive experience onboard, but I am very much interested with the on ground experience.

hohd wrote:
Before AI started SFO, the critics said the same thing. AI's flight to SFO would not work, it is Ultra long flight, there are many convenient one stop options.
But AI started this flight, even before UA did (which probably had the same traffic projection info) and became successful, in fact UA just merely copied it. UA also copied DEL-ORD too the same way. If AI can start BLR-SFO, which is primarily O&D, they can start DFW-DEL, with connections at DEL. Not immediately, but within a year once they get the required aircraft.

Market size and demand keep changing, 10 years from now may be too late. Right now there is no competition from US/Canada carriers, if AI wants to consider DFW (about 3 times a week) this is about the right time. Passengers now prefer nonstops and there is no US carrier which will start the route and cannibalize. It appears unlikely that any US carrier will start for the next 3 years, until then AI can see how the route does. The HYD addition would be a bonus as many from DFW area go to HYD, even it is not premium yield, they still make the volume. In fact some would even drive to DFW from Austin to go to India.


DEL-SFO, I can understand since DEL is AI's hub and Bay Area has the largest tech industry including HQs.
BLR-SFO, I can understand refer to the above for the Bay Area and Bangalore is probably the largest tech city outside of the States.
DFW-HYD, if you say it should be started now at 3 x week, which route or frequency should AI cancel/reduce to free up at least 2 wide bodies? I can't think of any, even if I do a simple CBA with all the permutations of the routes to cancel and/or frequency to reduce. The 5 x 777LRs and 6x 777-300ERs that are coming this year, I have heard nothing about them flying to DFW: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 997160.cms

SATexan wrote:
1. AA and UA did announce SEA/SFO-BLR prior to the pandemic.
2. AA from DFW does not have the aircrafts with range to reach South India. DEL is the best they can possibly do. Even that may require capacity restrictions.
3. I don't know why UA has not started flying to HYD but I do know that their RM analysts have looked at HYD. Obviously, there is a lot that goes into actually launching a flight - cargo, fuel prices, available frames, security, government regulations, crew contracts etc. US-South India will require 2 (possibly 3) dedicated frames and airlines always have to decide on the best options for those frames. It's not like they have spare frames sitting around. Look at how the Russian airspace issue is playing a role in some routes getting delayed. Likewise, when Pakistani airspace was closed, the AI flights from DEL to certain cities had to take a long detour.


1) I am guessing it is because of the ban of flying into Russian airspace. I think it makes no difference to them, the high yielding traffic are mostly American tech companies and their risk assessment of the Ukrainian war, I suspect due to safety and security will not allow their employees to fly into Russian air space (unless it is personnel travel). Just in case if there is an emergency and the plane has to land in Russia. Very low probability, most likely the same as winning the lottery but believe me there are companies that worry about this stuff.

Further more Tech companies are down sizing and that includes less business travel. Usually when it comes to fiscal discipline after laying off some of your workforce, companies reduce their travel budget.

2) Ok, so AI will have the same issues or the B777-200LR suffices? In addition, as AI has many connections for DEL, DFW has many onward connections for AA. So is AA missing out?

3) Using Occam's razor, UA see that they can utilise their assets and resources to more profitable route/s.

SATexan wrote:
Ofcourse, that warrants a capacity increase. It can be frequency increase, upgauge an existing aircraft, redeploying asset from DEL or start a new route. There is also a lot of traffic that leaks to Australia and Japan through Singapore, Thai and Malaysia.


How do you know that there are a lot of leaks? I agree there are leaks but I don't know if there is enough to warrant a capacity increase.

We all have agreed high yielding customers want direct flights. So AI are going to lower their prices to gain market share from QF and JL and the ones stop airlines. At what cost should they target to gain market share?

"That is for them to decide."

Hence AI have decided to not fly these routes (for the time being).

SATexan wrote:
There is no hypothesis about reduced LFs. Historical facts suggest that non stop routes stimulate demand & O&D numbers. For example, prior to Emirates launching nonstops to continents far away, the O&D from those cities to DXB were in lower two digits (30,40, 50 etc). Once EK started nonstop flights the O&D on the same routes have increased many folds. So AI launching BLR-SYD will stimulate more demand and in the absence of pandemic or recession, both airlines will coexist just fine. The 1-stop carriers on the BLR-SYD route may feel some pinch with the availability of a new nonstop.


Comparing Dubai to Bangalore, I have never been to either of the cities so I'll take your word.

Based on the example, EK have no competition with direct flights to just about all of North America, all of South America as an example. So O&D demand has increased and there is room for an additional carrier since there would be no reduction in LFs. Only 1-stop carriers (EY, QR, TK and EU3) may struggle with the availability of these new nonstops.

What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)?

SATexan wrote:
Sued by shareholders for not launching a route? What are you even talking about? Both of these airlines filed for bankruptcy, emerged through Chapter 11 restructuring and went through mergers not too long ago. They have their own debt problems and the shareholders aren't suing them for that.


Valid point, but I think you can't sue if a company files Chapter 11. Correct me if I am wrong but chapter 11 means the company has no money to service debt. So what exactly can you sue the management for? Incompetence? Unless someone has died or there is a sever breach of rule and regulations then maybe. Or fraud, but these are all under criminal law.

Granted it is a minor point not worth mentioning but I was trying to say that if these direct flights were profitable then US3 would be flying them. The management do have a fiduciary responsibility by law to maximise profits (within the law, rules and regulations) and in this case fly routes even if it requires them to redirect their existing assets and resources. US3 know something and AI knows the same thing (all airlines use the same data about passenger details). That is why some of these flights are not being launched for the time being.

I am an aviation enthusiast first of all, I want AI to succeed and have a network and more which has been suggested. But when it comes to survivability of a company in this case AI, I become an arm chair CEO. I do the analysis, I see what the competitors are doing. I see what I am doing. I do the risk analysis. Figure out how I am going to manage the risk, then make the decision.

SATexan wrote:
DEL had the mover's advantage. Capital city with the Indian bureaucracy controlling every investment in to the country. Lack of open skies agreements, lack of international airports in South India, and points-of-call agreement with countries that ONLY included DEL and BOM were some reasons why DEL had some disproportionate air traffic growth. Those days are over! Increasingly matters related to investments are being handled directly by the states themselves. States are deciding policies and any "palm greasing" happens at the State level and not at the central/Federal level.


During the time JRD was running AI, was the situation same?
Also what about the ME3 and before them GF, how did they manage to expand into the south, BA started flights in 1988 to MAA.

Could it be the market forces, maybe the south did not have enough demand to warrant additional flights for Europe and North Amercia.

Generally the financial capital of a country has the most international flights, so BOM made sense.

As for DEL, were they not the 2nd most richest city after the BOM, government pay was relatively quite good, to some extent most white collar workers bureaucrats were upper middle class. I just got told that one of my wife's uncle was an IAS officer, apparently in those days it was a big thing (anecdotal so take it as you wish).

Don't know what happened in the 80's, terrorism and assassination in north and south.

Economic reforms took place in the early 90's which was the catalyst for the high growth that spread through out India.

I got to admit, I only knew ancient Indian history, but since getting married and forums such as these, I've learnt so much! Thank you all.
 
subramak1
Posts: 294
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:21 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sun Jan 22, 2023 5:57 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
Thanks for the info on per hr flight costs. Ideally for most of these stage lengths AI will need B789 not 788. Two indicators of demand

a) the backlog of B1 visa requests in India for US. I expect to AI to add these services over the next 12-18 months.
b) The number of services operated by US3 to India

I am sure AI management worked out their numbers before deciding to lease 5 new B77L.

As I stated earlier, the most likely thing to happen would be BOM SFO or SFO BLR becomes daily. I could bet either way between these two cities. But looking at the order for 777 200 LRs, they are looking at longer stage lengths and higher demand ( 291 seats with Premium economy thrown in). The allure of reaching BOM, BLR non stop is actually quite high. I was talking to a childhood friend who lives in SFO and whose parents live in Western TN 4 hrs from BLR. The fact that you could leave SFO on a friday night and get to your hometown by Sunday mornng and leave your hometown sunday morning and be in SFO by Sunday was pretty appealing to him. I am sure there are more who will opt for this service as this gets publicized and as long AI does a good job.

If India US market were not very big, you will not see US3 operate to India. For many of us who left India long time ago, we dont understand how big this market has grown. India has more people than Japan with $ 10,000 or more in disposable income.


All valid points, some additional thoughts to consider:
For a second hand 787-9 operating, I guess it would be circa USD500,000 for 1 weekly trip per year. The point was how much should AI charge for all the classes so that they can make profit?
I suspect most of the B1 visa requests are going to get cancelled. Tech companies are reducing their headcount and so are the banks or at least a hiring freeze. (I hope I am wrong, not having a job is one of the worst feelings.)
US3 are making more money elsewhere hence you do not see a sizeable foot print in India.
BOM SFO and SFO BLR daily - Sure, I suspect AI has now one of the largest corporate client in India ... all the Tata companies (for both international and domestic travel)! As well as GoI for international flights (I don't know what their domestic travel policy is).
I am very much keen on reading your travel report. I am sure you will have a positive experience onboard, but I am very much interested with the on ground experience.

hohd wrote:
Before AI started SFO, the critics said the same thing. AI's flight to SFO would not work, it is Ultra long flight, there are many convenient one stop options.
But AI started this flight, even before UA did (which probably had the same traffic projection info) and became successful, in fact UA just merely copied it. UA also copied DEL-ORD too the same way. If AI can start BLR-SFO, which is primarily O&D, they can start DFW-DEL, with connections at DEL. Not immediately, but within a year once they get the required aircraft.

Market size and demand keep changing, 10 years from now may be too late. Right now there is no competition from US/Canada carriers, if AI wants to consider DFW (about 3 times a week) this is about the right time. Passengers now prefer nonstops and there is no US carrier which will start the route and cannibalize. It appears unlikely that any US carrier will start for the next 3 years, until then AI can see how the route does. The HYD addition would be a bonus as many from DFW area go to HYD, even it is not premium yield, they still make the volume. In fact some would even drive to DFW from Austin to go to India.


DEL-SFO, I can understand since DEL is AI's hub and Bay Area has the largest tech industry including HQs.
BLR-SFO, I can understand refer to the above for the Bay Area and Bangalore is probably the largest tech city outside of the States.
DFW-HYD, if you say it should be started now at 3 x week, which route or frequency should AI cancel/reduce to free up at least 2 wide bodies? I can't think of any, even if I do a simple CBA with all the permutations of the routes to cancel and/or frequency to reduce. The 5 x 777LRs and 6x 777-300ERs that are coming this year, I have heard nothing about them flying to DFW: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 997160.cms

SATexan wrote:
1. AA and UA did announce SEA/SFO-BLR prior to the pandemic.
2. AA from DFW does not have the aircrafts with range to reach South India. DEL is the best they can possibly do. Even that may require capacity restrictions.
3. I don't know why UA has not started flying to HYD but I do know that their RM analysts have looked at HYD. Obviously, there is a lot that goes into actually launching a flight - cargo, fuel prices, available frames, security, government regulations, crew contracts etc. US-South India will require 2 (possibly 3) dedicated frames and airlines always have to decide on the best options for those frames. It's not like they have spare frames sitting around. Look at how the Russian airspace issue is playing a role in some routes getting delayed. Likewise, when Pakistani airspace was closed, the AI flights from DEL to certain cities had to take a long detour.


1) I am guessing it is because of the ban of flying into Russian airspace. I think it makes no difference to them, the high yielding traffic are mostly American tech companies and their risk assessment of the Ukrainian war, I suspect due to safety and security will not allow their employees to fly into Russian air space (unless it is personnel travel). Just in case if there is an emergency and the plane has to land in Russia. Very low probability, most likely the same as winning the lottery but believe me there are companies that worry about this stuff.

Further more Tech companies are down sizing and that includes less business travel. Usually when it comes to fiscal discipline after laying off some of your workforce, companies reduce their travel budget.

2) Ok, so AI will have the same issues or the B777-200LR suffices? In addition, as AI has many connections for DEL, DFW has many onward connections for AA. So is AA missing out?

3) Using Occam's razor, UA see that they can utilise their assets and resources to more profitable route/s.

SATexan wrote:
Ofcourse, that warrants a capacity increase. It can be frequency increase, upgauge an existing aircraft, redeploying asset from DEL or start a new route. There is also a lot of traffic that leaks to Australia and Japan through Singapore, Thai and Malaysia.


How do you know that there are a lot of leaks? I agree there are leaks but I don't know if there is enough to warrant a capacity increase.

We all have agreed high yielding customers want direct flights. So AI are going to lower their prices to gain market share from QF and JL and the ones stop airlines. At what cost should they target to gain market share?

"That is for them to decide."

Hence AI have decided to not fly these routes (for the time being).

SATexan wrote:
There is no hypothesis about reduced LFs. Historical facts suggest that non stop routes stimulate demand & O&D numbers. For example, prior to Emirates launching nonstops to continents far away, the O&D from those cities to DXB were in lower two digits (30,40, 50 etc). Once EK started nonstop flights the O&D on the same routes have increased many folds. So AI launching BLR-SYD will stimulate more demand and in the absence of pandemic or recession, both airlines will coexist just fine. The 1-stop carriers on the BLR-SYD route may feel some pinch with the availability of a new nonstop.


Comparing Dubai to Bangalore, I have never been to either of the cities so I'll take your word.

Based on the example, EK have no competition with direct flights to just about all of North America, all of South America as an example. So O&D demand has increased and there is room for an additional carrier since there would be no reduction in LFs. Only 1-stop carriers (EY, QR, TK and EU3) may struggle with the availability of these new nonstops.

What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)?

SATexan wrote:
Sued by shareholders for not launching a route? What are you even talking about? Both of these airlines filed for bankruptcy, emerged through Chapter 11 restructuring and went through mergers not too long ago. They have their own debt problems and the shareholders aren't suing them for that.


Valid point, but I think you can't sue if a company files Chapter 11. Correct me if I am wrong but chapter 11 means the company has no money to service debt. So what exactly can you sue the management for? Incompetence? Unless someone has died or there is a sever breach of rule and regulations then maybe. Or fraud, but these are all under criminal law.

Granted it is a minor point not worth mentioning but I was trying to say that if these direct flights were profitable then US3 would be flying them. The management do have a fiduciary responsibility by law to maximise profits (within the law, rules and regulations) and in this case fly routes even if it requires them to redirect their existing assets and resources. US3 know something and AI knows the same thing (all airlines use the same data about passenger details). That is why some of these flights are not being launched for the time being.

I am an aviation enthusiast first of all, I want AI to succeed and have a network and more which has been suggested. But when it comes to survivability of a company in this case AI, I become an arm chair CEO. I do the analysis, I see what the competitors are doing. I see what I am doing. I do the risk analysis. Figure out how I am going to manage the risk, then make the decision.

SATexan wrote:
DEL had the mover's advantage. Capital city with the Indian bureaucracy controlling every investment in to the country. Lack of open skies agreements, lack of international airports in South India, and points-of-call agreement with countries that ONLY included DEL and BOM were some reasons why DEL had some disproportionate air traffic growth. Those days are over! Increasingly matters related to investments are being handled directly by the states themselves. States are deciding policies and any "palm greasing" happens at the State level and not at the central/Federal level.


During the time JRD was running AI, was the situation same?
Also what about the ME3 and before them GF, how did they manage to expand into the south, BA started flights in 1988 to MAA.

Could it be the market forces, maybe the south did not have enough demand to warrant additional flights for Europe and North Amercia.

Generally the financial capital of a country has the most international flights, so BOM made sense.

As for DEL, were they not the 2nd most richest city after the BOM, government pay was relatively quite good, to some extent most white collar workers bureaucrats were upper middle class. I just got told that one of my wife's uncle was an IAS officer, apparently in those days it was a big thing (anecdotal so take it as you wish).

Don't know what happened in the 80's, terrorism and assassination in north and south.

Economic reforms took place in the early 90's which was the catalyst for the high growth that spread through out India.

I got to admit, I only knew ancient Indian history, but since getting married and forums such as these, I've learnt so much! Thank you all.




500 K round trip cost means AI needs to price round trip ticket at $ 1800 to break even, not accounting for Cargo. I dont get cheaper tickets than that today in the market generally.

The B1 Visas are for two purposes - Business travel and visitor visa. B1 visas dont get cancelled, in case of US, they have a 10 year validitly with multiple entry options. In case the US recession spreads beyond Tech and high end investment banking ( only GS is laying off people, MS had a record quarter because of Wealth management division), it actually would lead to more outsourcing.

US3 footprint in India is expanding, otherwise AA would have not launched JFK DEL ( you can read up on how AA has been retreating from JFK in several other threads in the forum). They are getting in because there is demand from their corporate clients. When the Russia situation resolves, you will see them expanding more. Remember flights to India from US are some of the longest that US carriers operate, courtesy India being the other side of the globe.

I will skip HYD DFW part, there is passenger demand but not so much front end. But DEL DFW may happen.

What were US 3 waiting for or LATAM to DXB. Remember, DXB funnels traffic from a large population base via connections. LATAM does not have that and hence not in their priority. For most US airlines, their corporate demand is skewed towards Western Europe, China, SIN and some ANZ. Continental launched US India routes because they had aircraft, range and demand in their main hub - NYC. UA continued it and expanded because of the same. AA/DL come into the picture for same reason.

I am willing to wager $100 that by 2030, US 3 will have at least 7 services to India. Part of this is the growth in Indian economy and part of it is more deeper ties between the two countries.



Best, Subramanian
 
edealinfo
Posts: 3059
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:09 pm

subramak1 wrote:
1. US3 footprint in India is expanding, otherwise AA would have not launched JFK DEL
2. But DEL DFW may happen.
3. By the way, I am will be checking out AI's BOM SFO service in a couple of weeks. I am hoping for a decent experience.
Best, Subramanian


1. Is that the ONLY direct US3 service to India? If yes, why haven't United done EWR to DEL?

2. What is your reasoning for DEL DFW?

3. Check your seat if it has any pee smell.

CaliguyNYC wrote:
What IMHO has made nonstops so successful have been - 1) connecting in EU wrecked your sleep schedule. You basically fall asleep for 3 hours and then are landing in AMS, CDG from a flight from JFK


Except for business class, I don't think economy passengers worry too much about not sleeping enough on their flight.

oceanvikram wrote:
A B787-8 operating cost, for passenger service is circa USD14,400/hr.


Is this based on an acquisition cost of $110 M to $115 M for 787-8. This came out from a response in parliament years ago when a legislator asked the question and received an answer!

hohd wrote:
Chinese like Indians like bargains, they will fly AI if the price is right. Japanese, may be not.


Japanese always have a preference for their own carriers, and particularly avoid Indian carriers like the plague.

SATexan wrote:
For example: Calicut/Kannur to Sharjah/Ras-al-Khaimah/Al Ain among other destinations are around 200$ even during peak or last minute travel.


I believe Dubai & Sharjah bi-lateral rights are 100% exhausted and since Ras-al-Khaimah doesn't have much rights, it's possible that could be exhausted. Only availability right now is is to Abu Dhabi.

Too bad the rights for all individual emirates were not combined in a single bilateral agreement for the whole of UAE. This way, perhaps, India could have used ABU rights to fly to DXB. But, we know that's not going to happen and India would rather not reopen the agreements. For this reason, I wonder why Indian carriers are not utilizing all the ABU rights especially when DXB is not available. I believe ABU rights are at least 80% exhausted but have no idea what the exact number is. On another note, Wizz Abu Dhabi has been trying to get India rights but the Govt., seems to be sitting on it, maybe because they don't view Wizz as a genuine ABU carrier?
 
SATexan
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:17 pm

oceanvikram wrote:

Based on the example, EK have no competition with direct flights to just about all of North America, all of South America as an example. So O&D demand has increased and there is room for an additional carrier since there would be no reduction in LFs. Only 1-stop carriers (EY, QR, TK and EU3) may struggle with the availability of these new nonstops.

What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)?


I consider your repeated "What were they waiting" question as trolling. I normally don't feed trolls but I will give it a try. I seriously suggest that you start seeking some passenger data before you ask some rudimentary questions.

In 2003, the O&D from New York City to Dubai was only 50 PDEW. Emirates was not flying to NYC at that time.
Emirates started flying to New York City in June 2004. By 2011, the NYC to Dubai O&D was 140 PDEW. It was an increase of 180%.
Emirates stimulated the market and also helped 1-stop connections to many markets considered secondary in India. Example: The same period ALSO saw the New York City - Hyderabad O&D increase from 30 PDEW to 120 PDEW by nearly 300% !! This increase was largely fueled by Emirates since there weren't many 1-stop providers in the NYC-HYD market. Once the NYC-DXB market exceeded 100 PDEW and was growing in double digits YoY & had great yields, sure enough the US3 entered the scene. UA and DL both started flying to Dubai.

So to answer the question: What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)? - They were waiting for someone else take some risks and stimulate the market. Why would any airline operate a long haul flight on a market that has 50 PDEW (or even less in some markets)?

Today the NYC-DXB market is much larger and more mature market with Emirates firmly entrenched as the leader. EK through their hub in Dubai are able to provide significantly better connections to the fast growing airline markets in India and China. LATAM don't have that advantage. LATAM can fly to Dubai but there won't be much to carry beyond Dubai in the absence of codeshares or connections. FYI, even LATAM were barely coming out of the merger blues prior to the pandemic and their strategy wasn't really coherent beyond JFK, MIA and a couple of other cities.

The US-BLR, US-HYD or US-MAA markets don't have an O&D problem in 2023. The markets are already very sizeable and can be further stimulated with non stops. In BLR's case there is premium revenue. Routing these passengers via Delhi makes no sense. Air India can keep trying this but it will be an exercise in futility. Period.
 
sabby
Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:11 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:22 pm

edealinfo wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:
What IMHO has made nonstops so successful have been - 1) connecting in EU wrecked your sleep schedule. You basically fall asleep for 3 hours and then are landing in AMS, CDG from a flight from JFK


Except for business class, I don't think economy passengers worry too much about not sleeping enough on their flight.



You'd be surprised. Especially for middle aged or older passengers. EK have ~9/10AM flights from all the big Indian cities that connect to their European flights bank landing late evening. Yields are actually slightly higher on those than the red eyes.

I wouldn't be surprised if AI repurpose a handful of 788s to create daytime non-stop flights between the the metros and a star alliance hub e.g. FRA/MUC/ZRH. The 788 has a small J cabin and 1 aircraft can do both legs under 24 hours.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:19 am

SATexan wrote:
oceanvikram wrote:

Based on the example, EK have no competition with direct flights to just about all of North America, all of South America as an example. So O&D demand has increased and there is room for an additional carrier since there would be no reduction in LFs. Only 1-stop carriers (EY, QR, TK and EU3) may struggle with the availability of these new nonstops.

What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)?


I consider your repeated "What were they waiting" question as trolling. I normally don't feed trolls but I will give it a try. I seriously suggest that you start seeking some passenger data before you ask some rudimentary questions.

In 2003, the O&D from New York City to Dubai was only 50 PDEW. Emirates was not flying to NYC at that time.
Emirates started flying to New York City in June 2004. By 2011, the NYC to Dubai O&D was 140 PDEW. It was an increase of 180%.
Emirates stimulated the market and also helped 1-stop connections to many markets considered secondary in India. Example: The same period ALSO saw the New York City - Hyderabad O&D increase from 30 PDEW to 120 PDEW by nearly 300% !! This increase was largely fueled by Emirates since there weren't many 1-stop providers in the NYC-HYD market. Once the NYC-DXB market exceeded 100 PDEW and was growing in double digits YoY & had great yields, sure enough the US3 entered the scene. UA and DL both started flying to Dubai.

So to answer the question: What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)? - They were waiting for someone else take some risks and stimulate the market. Why would any airline operate a long haul flight on a market that has 50 PDEW (or even less in some markets)?

Today the NYC-DXB market is much larger and more mature market with Emirates firmly entrenched as the leader. EK through their hub in Dubai are able to provide significantly better connections to the fast growing airline markets in India and China. LATAM don't have that advantage. LATAM can fly to Dubai but there won't be much to carry beyond Dubai in the absence of codeshares or connections. FYI, even LATAM were barely coming out of the merger blues prior to the pandemic and their strategy wasn't really coherent beyond JFK, MIA and a couple of other cities.

The US-BLR, US-HYD or US-MAA markets don't have an O&D problem in 2023. The markets are already very sizeable and can be further stimulated with non stops. In BLR's case there is premium revenue. Routing these passengers via Delhi makes no sense. Air India can keep trying this but it will be an exercise in futility. Period.


So US-HYD is not a flight - you have to pick a city in the US. Maybe only BLR-SFO and BLR-EWR have the O&D traffic with enough premium pax to justify a nonstop (and that just barely if that). Could I see HYD, MAA getting nonstops to say ORD on UA or AA and have them funnel pax to the rest of the uS, sure. But how is that different from AI flying DEL to several cities in the US and pushing all the US traffic to many cities in India (remember India is bigger than MAA and HYD). To say it is futile for AI to develop its DEL hub goes against modern aviation and the success of AI’s DEL hub that it saw with the GOI running it. Also it is looking like AI under the TATAs will have a big hub in DEL, a smaller one in BOM and a focus city in BLR PLUS fly key O&D routes like Kerela to Gulf and LGW to AMD, ATQ etc. Seems pretty reasonable and not blindly focusing on one city. Also DEL could use connections to LAX, HOU, DFW, BOS (not to mention returning to daily DEL-JFK, EWR, ORD, IAD, SFO, YYZ, YVR. So plenty of DEL growth is still needed.
 
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Rajahdhani
Posts: 932
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:24 am

SATexan wrote:
oceanvikram wrote:

Based on the example, EK have no competition with direct flights to just about all of North America, all of South America as an example. So O&D demand has increased and there is room for an additional carrier since there would be no reduction in LFs. Only 1-stop carriers (EY, QR, TK and EU3) may struggle with the availability of these new nonstops.

What are US3 and LATAM waiting for (before the pandemic)?


I consider your repeated "What were they waiting" question as trolling. I normally don't feed trolls but I will give it a try. I seriously suggest that you start seeking some passenger data before you ask some rudimentary questions.

In 2003, the O&D from New York City to Dubai was only 50 PDEW. Emirates was not flying to NYC at that time.
Emirates started flying to New York City in June 2004. By 2011, the NYC to Dubai O&D was 140 PDEW. It was an increase of 180%.
Emirates stimulated the market and also helped 1-stop connections to many markets considered secondary in India. Example: The same period ALSO saw the New York City - Hyderabad O&D increase from 30 PDEW to 120 PDEW by nearly 300% !! This increase was largely fueled by Emirates since there weren't many 1-stop providers in the NYC-HYD market. Once the NYC-DXB market exceeded 100 PDEW and was growing in double digits YoY & had great yields, sure enough the US3 entered the scene. UA and DL both started flying to Dubai.

The US-BLR, US-HYD or US-MAA markets don't have an O&D problem in 2023.


I'll add to/correct @SATexan's comment here. Firstly, thank you for providing factual data to support your argument, and also (no thank you here) for aging us all in such a short period of time. My, my, how the times have changed in 20 years! While I would commend the Emirates effect, I can't help but see how much the Indian market (and Economy) has grown, and significantly so, in that time as well. Demand has grown, and rightly so, EK banked on that - however the majority of that growth was due to the rising tides/foci of the Indian Economy and also, EK's ability to make those locations (the 'secondary locations') attractive/accessible in the same space. While a nuanced point, necessary to make in that, other carriers could have made the same approximation and banked on the same, and did not to the same degree (not to their downfall, but simply as they focused their limited resources elsewhere). So, I once again thank you, not only for the factual data, but also - for the perspective that it brought along with it.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 553
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: India Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 23, 2023 4:58 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Also DEL could use connections to LAX, HOU, DFW, BOS (not to mention returning to daily DEL-JFK, EWR, ORD, IAD, SFO, YYZ, YVR. So plenty of DEL growth is still needed.

Some of the destinations you mentioned already have daily service to DEL. I believe YYZ, YVR, JFK, and ORD are daily. SFO is more than daily (10x weekly). From what I understand, SFO-DEL is almost entirely O&D. I don't know how easy it is to transit through DEL, but if AI is able to develop connections beyond DEL to the rest of the subcontinent, I could see SFO-DEL becoming 2x daily (only +4 weekly frequencies compared to the current schedule). Air India already operates up to 3x services to SFO from DEL/BLR/BOM on certain days of the week. I agree with others here who say that BLR and BOM have the potential to go daily.

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