Welcome to the Caribbean Aviation thread - 2023 edition.

Please continue to post your news and discussions below.

Link to the locked 2022 edition:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468517

Happy New Year.
RE: Arajet and CM.
Sure they can co-exist.
One wants to be like NK with a hub, the other is already like (a regional) TK.

Happy new year2023

Good Day, and Happy New Year, to all!

What are some of the upcoming developments, set to happen this year - that you (and/or we) should be looking forward to? Any key openings/closings/milestones/events to watch for, in 2023? Apart from that, any good news to look forward to?

Once more, Happy New Year to all, and here's to a beautiful, fantastic, prosperous, and stunningly great year ahead.

Hopefully the region can continue to recover I hope some inter regional travel solution will be closer it's clear JY aren't the solution.

Dominican aviation was insane last year, let see if they can keep the growing.

Sky high to reach 10 aircraft fleet by summer, Arajet receiving 3-4 more Max and opening 10+ more routes, Skycana with lot of charters and ACMI in the region, Iberojet is creating an airline here basing 1 A333 out of PUJ.

danipawa wrote:

Dominican aviation was insane last year, let see if they can keep the growing.

Sky high to reach 10 aircraft fleet by summer, Arajet receiving 3-4 more Max and opening 10+ more routes, Skycana with lot of charters and ACMI in the region, Iberojet is creating an airline here basing 1 A333 out of PUJ.

It is defenitly the best growing aviation of all Caribbean.

What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!

- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?

AA1818

On Dec 23, JY commenced it's ATR operations. Since then, their lone ATR has done many flights to GDT, CAP and PAP. Not sure what's on the cards for JY regarding ATR routes and/or additional aircraft.

aa1818 wrote:

What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!

- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?

AA1818

I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.

baje427 wrote:

aa1818 wrote:

What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!

- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?

AA1818

I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.

If the petro-energy industry keeps expanding in Guyana it would not be unheard of as oil and gas fills up n the front, but more demand is needed for now.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

On Dec 23, JY commenced it's ATR operations. Since then, their lone ATR has done many flights to GDT, CAP and PAP. Not sure what's on the cards for JY regarding ATR routes and/or additional aircraft.

I hope they replace the old e120s with newer atr42s

Happy New Year Everyone...

aa1818 wrote:

What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!

- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?

AA1818

Within the English Caribbean the biggest development will have to be intra regional travel. We are now post pandemic and there is recovery in traffic. The various prime ministers of the Caribbean are very irritated at how inconvenient it is to get to their various talk shops, and the OECS is all but cut off from POS/GEO. That is aside from GND. With BA abandoning its UVF POS route from late March what happens there?

Based on TripAdvisor reviews JY is in free fall. Not shocking given that its a small privately owned carrier so must be capital constrained. I suspect that unless they get ATRs into the Eastern Caribbean with improved reliability the drum beats for a fully revitalized LI will get louder.

One additional point is that WM will be expanding its routes later this year once its second ATR arrives. They plan to add SLU, BGI and maybe other points, thus making SXM more easily accessed from the southern islands. I do not see a return of LI to its former glory so some combination of WM and JY with a revitalized LI will be what is needed. BW focusing on the POS/GEO regional market. Maybe LI might return to GEO, as that government seems willing to put in some of its oil wealth into it (no Guyanese carrier planned), as it seeks to attract more airline service. Not sure if they will be back into POS, given stiff competition from BW.

Not sure what expansion that BW can do with its fleet of 9 jets, which I suspect are now fully utilized and I think that the back log might prevent them from adding more planes in the near future. Also apart from recovering on its POS routes I do not see any expansion of BW in intra regional travel. I think their focus will be to ensure adequate lift on the POS BGI, GND, and I assume SLU routes, the latter with BA leaving. I guess no one travels between POS and SVD as that route seems to not be seeing more lift.

Not sure why airlift to POS remains depressed when its recovered elsewhere, including other VFR markets. Lower outbound travel?

Happy new year all. 2023 should see a recovery of the capacity of regional travel in the Eastern Caribbean. Any idea when CAL will receive their much talked about 2 additional ATR72's? Hope that they arrive in 2023.
I also see that FlyAlways has flights from PBM-GEO-BGI planned for tomorrow with the F70.. Are they back in operation?
BGI seems to be recovering nicely this winter... Airport was packed to capacity even with the additional parking spaces added during Covid. Good signs for 2023/24 season.

From Aeroroutes this morning.
Suriname-based carrier Fly All Ways today (03JAN23) is launching new service to Barbados from Guyana, where it schedules Georgetown – Bridgetown nonstop flight. Fokker 70 aircraft will operate this route 3 times weekly.

8W721 GEO0940 – 1050BGI F70 246
8W722 BGI1150 – 1300GEO F70 246

2travel2know2 wrote:

Happy New Year.
RE: Arajet and CM.
Sure they can co-exist.
One wants to be like NK with a hub, the other is already like (a regional) TK.

I agree, CM and AraJet can co-exist together since one is a legacy carrier and the other a low cost carrier. AraJet can even be seen as a competitor to AV to connect the Americas with each other. And AV is even transitioning to the low cost model too now.

Happy new year to everyone and all the best for 2023.

A388

aa1818 wrote:

- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).

AA1818

Now this sounds interesting. Will this hotel offer good views on the airport and arriving and departing flight?

Another question is, will POS become airplane spotting friendly with all these developments (incl that public sprctator terrace that is planned near the FBO/cargo terminal?)

A388

baje427 wrote:

I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.

I agree with your sentiment 100% but I just don't see good sense prevailing in this regard. Airlines are great ways for large sums of money to "leak".
Cheers,
AA1818

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

aa1818 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.

I agree with your sentiment 100% but I just don't see good sense prevailing in this regard. Airlines are great ways for large sums of money to "leak".
Cheers,
AA1818

Right now the Guyana gov't is trying to get every airline under the sun into GEO. They have promised funds into LIAT. even though BW and JY provide adequate regional airlift. And now FlyAllways adding more service. They want Canadian carriers to do YYZ GEO and even have a wish for Emirates and KLM to add GEO.

The only route which matters to most Guyanese is JFK GEO and that is well covered. It is easier to "leak" funds building roads and bridges, and there are ample projects of those now being implemented.

embraer175e2 wrote:

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

It might indeed be difficult to fill 190 seats per flight on some latin america south america and the caribbean destinations.
Arajet has no government backing them up financially like caribbean airlines.

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?

windian425 wrote:

From Aeroroutes this morning.
Suriname-based carrier Fly All Ways today (03JAN23) is launching new service to Barbados from Guyana, where it schedules Georgetown – Bridgetown nonstop flight. Fokker 70 aircraft will operate this route 3 times weekly.

8W721 GEO0940 – 1050BGI F70 246
8W722 BGI1150 – 1300GEO F70 246

They tried this before, now with BW and JY on the route daily I don't see how a thrice weekly service is going to work.

dominicl316 wrote:

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?

Do you know how long it'll be before they get permission to fly to the US ? Perhaps it'd be more prudent to hold off a bit on the regional expansion until the get approval to fly to the States.

aa1818 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.

I agree with your sentiment 100% but I just don't see good sense prevailing in this regard. Airlines are great ways for large sums of money to "leak".
Cheers,
AA1818

As another poster stated that can be achieved through infrastructure projects I'm sure lots of leaks occured with the oil contracts.

baje427 wrote:

dominicl316 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?

Do you know how long it'll be before they get permission to fly to the US ? Perhaps it'd be more prudent to hold off a bit on the regional expansion until the get approval to fly to the States.

That makes sense to me. USA is a huge market.

baje427 wrote:

windian425 wrote:

From Aeroroutes this morning.
Suriname-based carrier Fly All Ways today (03JAN23) is launching new service to Barbados from Guyana, where it schedules Georgetown – Bridgetown nonstop flight. Fokker 70 aircraft will operate this route 3 times weekly.

8W721 GEO0940 – 1050BGI F70 246
8W722 BGI1150 – 1300GEO F70 246

They tried this before, now with BW and JY on the route daily I don't see how a thrice weekly service is going to work.

Has anyone seen the fares that they are trying to charge for this? It's insane.

PBM-BGI cheapest I can find is $750 USD one way...
GEO-BGI cheapest is $600 USD one way... Minus a couple for $350 one way.

It's impossible to book a return. The system gives you an error. When the competition between GEO/OGL-BGI has more frequency, and flights for 60% less, I struggle to see the point.. PBM-BGI is also accessible through a stop in POS with BW, flights are 50% less than what is published on their website.

Interested to see what happens with this. Are they charging less if you book via the sales office? No clue. Really confused about this.

dominicl316 wrote:

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?

Arajet started service in Sept 15th, Its startup airline with a big plan, they have been flying for less than 4 months, opened 17 routes, they are unknown to a lot people, they have sold 150,000 tickets already and they said are getting ready to have a Hub in SDQ soon. This is the first stage of their plan. If you check their schedules starting march has been changed with almost all flights to depart from SDQ at nights and very early in the morning where the airport has less trafic and they can have almost whole airport for their use and could have connecting flights. They also are requesting more flights to USA, South America, Central America and Caribbean where for sure the load factor will increase as its been happening with the most of their routes where load factor is increasing.

Caribbean007 wrote:

dominicl316 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?

Arajet started service in Sept 15th, Its startup airline with a big plan, they have been flying for less than 4 months, opened 17 routes, they are unknown to a lot people, they have sold 150,000 tickets already and they said are getting ready to have a Hub in SDQ soon. This is the first stage of their plan. If you check their schedules starting march has been changed with almost all flights to depart from SDQ at nights and very early in the morning where the airport has less trafic and they can have almost whole airport for their use and could have connecting flights. They also are requesting more flights to USA, South America, Central America and Caribbean where for sure the load factor will increase as its been happening with the most of their routes where load factor is increasing.

Can the population of surinam really pay such a high amount of money for a ticket????

It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.

A388

dominicl316 wrote:

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/

Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.

Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?

Contrary to what some seem to think on airliners.net people only do connections when they are seamless, that is unless they do not have a choice. CM, with its high frequencies and PTY being built for easy connections, allows this. An airline running routes 2x weekly doesn't. Same day connections do not cut it. Connections within a 2 hour span do.

If these routes do not stand up on an O&D basis I do not see them working. It is possible that DR can generate and attract travelers on these routes, given its large travel market and its dynamic economy, and it's on this basis that these routes will succeed or fail. If there is enough O&D Arajet can succeed based on offering direct service and not the need to connect via a hub. Nonstop service is always preferred ahead of a connection. As frequencies increase maybe scheduling might be such as to allow seamless connections. But that cannot be the initial premise.

A388 wrote:

It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.

A388

Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.

Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.

caribny wrote:

A388 wrote:

It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.

A388

Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.

Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.

The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.

Arajet Transports Nearly 50K Passengers In First Three Months Of Operations

A strong start for the new ultra-low-cost Caribbean carrier

This according to a very recent simple flying article:

https://simpleflying.com/arajet-transpo ... ee-months/

It'll be awesome when Arajet starts flights from GRU or GIG and flights to POS. Getting back to Trinidad from Brazil is either an arm and a leg with CM or a multi day/multi-airline (G3 and BW) endeavor that goes GRU-BEL-PBM-POS (which is actually cheaper even with the cost of hotels and transportation for overnight layovers). Would love to have a low cost option with only one SDQ layover. I could visit home/family could visit me much more often. It doesn't seem that anyone else will dip their toes into getting more Caribbean-South American connections going so it's the best I can hope for at this point.

jbs2886 wrote:

caribny wrote:

A388 wrote:

It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.

A388

Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.

Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.

The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.

Bain Capital investors are exactly the type who will quickly bail if the ROI is suboptimal. Just do not see "years and years of losses" being tolerated. Bain has to generate returns for its investors. They operate on the OPM principle.

This airline will succeed on O&D between the DR and other parts of Latin America, and eventually its huge diaspora in North America, once those routes start. If that doesnt work out the hub will not either. There should be enough travel based on the DR market.

Saw an article in todays Trinidad Express Newspaper announcing PY's resumption of PBM-POS-CUR (2 weekly) alongside PBM-AUA in the coming weeks.
Good to have PY back in POS after a 9 month hiatus.

AA1818

Happy New Year to Everyone, Hope we see more Caribbean discussion this year!

aa1818 wrote:

What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!

- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?

AA1818

- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean
- Arajet will be interesting this year, they are ambitious but so will their competitors.
- Doubt VS will go to GEO with BA servicing the route. VS is more geared to the tourist market with their type of customer segmentation
- Very Likely
- Yep, I believe it's going to open in 2025? It's a good project to help bring more activity to Piarco and generally POS economic diversification.
- I thought that project is planned to be completed in 2024. There are photos of the construction going on.
- One can only hope TAB can get more services for the winter 23/24, more so the reintroduction of Sunwings YYZ service since they own the Starfish hotel on the island.
- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.
- I thought that they already have an ATR?
- Anything is possible
- PY will be starting POS and AUA again, but how long will this last.
- hmmm let's wait to see.

jbs2886 wrote:

caribny wrote:

A388 wrote:

It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.

A388

Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.

Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.

The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.

My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.

caribbean484 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.

Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.

The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.

My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.

Yea, but there is simply no way Bain thought this was a short-term investment. Any sophisticated investor realizes airlines are long-term investments (at best). Bain is huge, they aren't expecting every investment to be a short-term gain.

You do raise a good point on US competitors, my thought there is Arajet's costs probably give them a lot of wiggle room to carry the low fare customers and still be OK. I also think its important that they are making SDQ a hub, not necessarily US to SDQ O&D. I honestly don't know if a Caribbean hub will work (didn't seem to work great for SJU).

jbs2886 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.

My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.

Yea, but there is simply no way Bain thought this was a short-term investment. Any sophisticated investor realizes airlines are long-term investments (at best). Bain is huge, they aren't expecting every investment to be a short-term gain.

You do raise a good point on US competitors, my thought there is Arajet's costs probably give them a lot of wiggle room to carry the low fare customers and still be OK. I also think it’s important that they are making SDQ a hub, not necessarily US to SDQ O&D. I honestly don't know if a Caribbean hub will work (didn't seem to work great for SJU).

I also question SDQ working as a hub but there are some vital differences between SDQ and SJU. For one, SJU is a US port and requires a U.S. visa for non U.S. citizens making connections. This obviously is no different for those whose final destination is the US but for those who are seeking an intermediate point between two non US destinations, it does matter.

Second, there is more demand between SDQ and other Latin American destinations than there is between SJU and Latam destinations.

Third, the last carrier to attempt a grand hub at SJU was an American legacy carrier with the associated costs. Furthermore, that carrier had a superior option in MIA. Arajet likely doesn’t have a better option for a hub. Also, Arajet is an LCC which actually should complement the non US visa holder crowd well.

Surinam Airways to return to T&T

https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/s ... 5ab4a.html

caribbean484 wrote:

- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean

Interesting- do you think increased capacity (JFK, YYZ, KIN, PMB, SLU, ANU, BGI where I think are underserved currently) or new routes?

caribbean484 wrote:

- Yep, I believe it's going to open in 2025? It's a good project to help bring more activity to Piarco and generally POS economic diversification.

Yes I think 2025 is the target date but during 2023, we should see much of the building structure go up which will change the landscape at Piarco.

caribbean484 wrote:

- I thought that project is planned to be completed in 2024. There are photos of the construction going on.

I could be wrong but I thought that parts of the new terminal would open in the latter part of 2023, but perhaps those dates have slipped. I haven't been to TAB in years!

caribbean484 wrote:

- One can only hope TAB can get more services for the winter 23/24, more so the reintroduction of Sunwings YYZ service since they own the Starfish hotel on the island.

That would be good. They desperately need more airlift.

caribbean484 wrote:

- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.

How many flights is JFK currently- am I right in saying that pre pandemic there were days when BW had 5 flights and other days when B6 had 2 from JFK (apart from the FLL).
Looking at many destinations though, while loads are high and yields are high, there is clearly room for more capacity which hasn't come back. AA to MIA goes 1 daily soon. B6 hasn't re-entered FLL. AC and WS aren't flying into YYZ. There's no LI to BGI and BW is still 50% of what it was into BGI. SLU is 2x weekly and in March BA will drop UVF/ POS (5x weekly). There's a lot of un-replaced capacity. The pace of rebound in every other territory in the Caribbean has outstripped that of POS. I have no doubt that it will get back there are grow, but it is surprising how long we can tolerate flying and paying for POS-MIA-BGI and POS-MIA-YYZ.

caribbean484 wrote:

- I thought that they already have an ATR?

Correct, I believe they just recently got their first...that's why I asked about more ATRs!

Cheers,
AA1818

aa1818 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean

Interesting- do you think increased capacity (JFK, YYZ, KIN, PMB, SLU, ANU, BGI where I think are underserved currently) or new routes?

caribbean484 wrote:

- Yep, I believe it's going to open in 2025? It's a good project to help bring more activity to Piarco and generally POS economic diversification.

Yes I think 2025 is the target date but during 2023, we should see much of the building structure go up which will change the landscape at Piarco.

caribbean484 wrote:

- I thought that project is planned to be completed in 2024. There are photos of the construction going on.

I could be wrong but I thought that parts of the new terminal would open in the latter part of 2023, but perhaps those dates have slipped. I haven't been to TAB in years!

caribbean484 wrote:

- One can only hope TAB can get more services for the winter 23/24, more so the reintroduction of Sunwings YYZ service since they own the Starfish hotel on the island.

That would be good. They desperately need more airlift.

caribbean484 wrote:

- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.

How many flights is JFK currently- am I right in saying that pre pandemic there were days when BW had 5 flights and other days when B6 had 2 from JFK (apart from the FLL).
Looking at many destinations though, while loads are high and yields are high, there is clearly room for more capacity which hasn't come back. AA to MIA goes 1 daily soon. B6 hasn't re-entered FLL. AC and WS aren't flying into YYZ. There's no LI to BGI and BW is still 50% of what it was into BGI. SLU is 2x weekly and in March BA will drop UVF/ POS (5x weekly). There's a lot of un-replaced capacity. The pace of rebound in every other territory in the Caribbean has outstripped that of POS. I have no doubt that it will get back there are grow, but it is surprising how long we can tolerate flying and paying for POS-MIA-BGI and POS-MIA-YYZ.

caribbean484 wrote:

- I thought that they already have an ATR?

Correct, I believe they just recently got their first...that's why I asked about more ATRs!

Cheers,
AA1818

If all these people are required to connect thru MIA to get anywhere, why is AA cutting back on MIA-POS? It seems counterintuitive.

Re the POS drop off in capacity generally, I think there are various factors:

1. The decline in business travel which affects POS more than most other Caribbean destinations.

2. The US visa backlog, foreign exchange issues and economic issues which have all worsened since the pandemic. Last I heard, the visa backlog was around 10-12 months for those who need to renew. POS is more dependent on outbound traffic than other islands in the region. Whereas, for example, ANU can survive on inbound tourists and inbound VFR, POS doesn’t have a significant inbound leisure market and inbound VFR isn’t enough to maintain prior capacity levels.

jbs2886 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.

My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.

Yea, but there is simply no way Bain thought this was a short-term investment. Any sophisticated investor realizes airlines are long-term investments (at best). Bain is huge, they aren't expecting every investment to be a short-term gain.

You do raise a good point on US competitors, my thought there is Arajet's costs probably give them a lot of wiggle room to carry the low fare customers and still be OK. I also think its important that they are making SDQ a hub, not necessarily US to SDQ O&D. I honestly don't know if a Caribbean hub will work (didn't seem to work great for SJU).

Airlines as Iceland Air and Virgin Australia are part of investment portfolio of Bain Capital, so I think they know what they are doing with Arajet.

I get everything that is said on AraJet and I agree with all of you that AraJet must generate money for the ROI but again, no new airline is going to generate profits in its first year, let alone first 6 months! Anybody who starts investing in a new airline, knows or should know this. As Richard Branson said "If you want to be a Millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline." His point being if you want to start an airline you need millions to invest in it. If the investor of AraJet is wants to see profits in the first year of operation already, they are not right for the airline business. AraJet needs time to make a profit. They start operations with brandnew aircraft which cost millions of dollars and that just leasing or buying the airplanes alone. Everything else still comes on top of that. As I said before, I think they will really pick up once they start flying to North America.

A388

aa1818 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean

Interesting- do you think increased capacity (JFK, YYZ, KIN, PMB, SLU, ANU, BGI where I think are underserved currently) or new routes?

Not until they get more 737. The ATR fleet will be used for more regional routes and with more ATRs expected further expansion. I see more ANU, SLU and BGI flights. Probably adding SKB as a new route.

aa1818 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.

How many flights is JFK currently- am I right in saying that pre pandemic there were days when BW had 5 flights and other days when B6 had 2 from JFK (apart from the FLL).
Looking at many destinations though, while loads are high and yields are high, there is clearly room for more capacity which hasn't come back. AA to MIA goes 1 daily soon. B6 hasn't re-entered FLL. AC and WS aren't flying into YYZ. There's no LI to BGI and BW is still 50% of what it was into BGI. SLU is 2x weekly and in March BA will drop UVF/ POS (5x weekly). There's a lot of un-replaced capacity. The pace of rebound in every other territory in the Caribbean has outstripped that of POS. I have no doubt that it will get back there are grow, but it is surprising how long we can tolerate flying and paying for POS-MIA-BGI and POS-MIA-YYZ.

When you look at their jet fleet, they are constrained in what they can do at 9 a/c.
For example, YYZ is 7w with 3 of those going through GEO. Before Covid they had 8w, so the number of seats allocated to POS has decreased substantially to YYZ. Flights are typically sold out or extremely high loads to YYZ 2-3 weeks in advance which means the market has largely recovered, however BW does not have the resources to add more. They are going to 5W POS-YYZ month end, and keeping the 3W through GEO.

To JFK they had 3 daily flights non-stop POS and 1D through GEO. The other flights are 1W through SVD and 1w through TAB. The GEO flight has I believe has a high allocation of seats for O/D GEO-JFK-GEO segments.
Right now, they have 10W non-stop flights from POS and 1w to TAB and SVD each for a total of 12w, plus the daily flight through GEO.
B6 use to have either 1D or 2D depending on the season with UA having weekend flights and even a daily EWR flights just before covid. So, we have on non-peak season 28w flights pre-covid to NYC. Now we only have about 17w so 60% of the original flights.

Even Florida has capacity missing despite MIA right now on pre-covid schedule. FLL use to be 5w and is still at 2w with BW.

Yes there is a lot of unreplaced capacity and until they order the final 3 737, we will continue to see low capacity unless competition comes in.

I've never been but is the airport at SDQ actually designed well enough to facilitate the hub Arajet envisions ?