Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
danipawa wrote:Dominican aviation was insane last year, let see if they can keep the growing.
Sky high to reach 10 aircraft fleet by summer, Arajet receiving 3-4 more Max and opening 10+ more routes, Skycana with lot of charters and ACMI in the region, Iberojet is creating an airline here basing 1 A333 out of PUJ.
aa1818 wrote:What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!
- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?
AA1818
baje427 wrote:aa1818 wrote:What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!
- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?
AA1818
I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.
LimaFoxTango wrote:On Dec 23, JY commenced it's ATR operations. Since then, their lone ATR has done many flights to GDT, CAP and PAP. Not sure what's on the cards for JY regarding ATR routes and/or additional aircraft.
aa1818 wrote:What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!
- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?
AA1818
2travel2know2 wrote:Happy New Year.
RE: Arajet and CM.
Sure they can co-exist.
One wants to be like NK with a hub, the other is already like (a regional) TK.
aa1818 wrote:- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
AA1818
baje427 wrote:I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.
aa1818 wrote:baje427 wrote:I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.
I agree with your sentiment 100% but I just don't see good sense prevailing in this regard. Airlines are great ways for large sums of money to "leak".
Cheers,
AA1818
embraer175e2 wrote:As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.
https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/
caribny wrote:embraer175e2 wrote:As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.
https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
caribny wrote:embraer175e2 wrote:As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.
https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
windian425 wrote:From Aeroroutes this morning.
Suriname-based carrier Fly All Ways today (03JAN23) is launching new service to Barbados from Guyana, where it schedules Georgetown – Bridgetown nonstop flight. Fokker 70 aircraft will operate this route 3 times weekly.
8W721 GEO0940 – 1050BGI F70 246
8W722 BGI1150 – 1300GEO F70 246
dominicl316 wrote:caribny wrote:embraer175e2 wrote:As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.
https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?
aa1818 wrote:baje427 wrote:I hope the Guyanese government doesn't waste resources with an airline, the market there is good enough to survive without a national carrier. The focus should be on ensuring more people in the country benefit economically to stimulate additional demand.
I agree with your sentiment 100% but I just don't see good sense prevailing in this regard. Airlines are great ways for large sums of money to "leak".
Cheers,
AA1818
baje427 wrote:dominicl316 wrote:caribny wrote:
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?
Do you know how long it'll be before they get permission to fly to the US ? Perhaps it'd be more prudent to hold off a bit on the regional expansion until the get approval to fly to the States.
baje427 wrote:windian425 wrote:From Aeroroutes this morning.
Suriname-based carrier Fly All Ways today (03JAN23) is launching new service to Barbados from Guyana, where it schedules Georgetown – Bridgetown nonstop flight. Fokker 70 aircraft will operate this route 3 times weekly.
8W721 GEO0940 – 1050BGI F70 246
8W722 BGI1150 – 1300GEO F70 246
They tried this before, now with BW and JY on the route daily I don't see how a thrice weekly service is going to work.
dominicl316 wrote:caribny wrote:embraer175e2 wrote:As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.
https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?
Caribbean007 wrote:dominicl316 wrote:caribny wrote:
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?
Arajet started service in Sept 15th, Its startup airline with a big plan, they have been flying for less than 4 months, opened 17 routes, they are unknown to a lot people, they have sold 150,000 tickets already and they said are getting ready to have a Hub in SDQ soon. This is the first stage of their plan. If you check their schedules starting march has been changed with almost all flights to depart from SDQ at nights and very early in the morning where the airport has less trafic and they can have almost whole airport for their use and could have connecting flights. They also are requesting more flights to USA, South America, Central America and Caribbean where for sure the load factor will increase as its been happening with the most of their routes where load factor is increasing.
dominicl316 wrote:caribny wrote:embraer175e2 wrote:As previously said arajet indeed cancelled monterey flights due to low demands. Question is if the will make it on all the other routes in the future.
https://simpleflying.com/arajet-suspend ... y-flights/
Which is why I am a little bit skeptical. They may have well heeled investors, but at some point people get tired losing money.
Why be skeptical so soon, if Arajet is only doing P2P at this early stage. Wouldn't the yields increase once they expand and provide same-day connectivity between airports via SDQ?
A388 wrote:It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.
A388
caribny wrote:A388 wrote:It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.
A388
Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.
Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.
jbs2886 wrote:caribny wrote:A388 wrote:It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.
A388
Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.
Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.
The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.
aa1818 wrote:What do y'all expect in 2023?
Mine will be heavily BW/ POS skewed as its the one market I know well, being a Trini, but i'd be interested to hear yours!
- some attempt at a solution connecting the less antilles (English Speaking) to each other; either new LIAT, expanded BW, Larger JY, new entrant?
- Continued expansion of Arajet.
- Any other new services to GEO expected? VS to LHR? KL to AMS? Brazilian connections? BW to IAH?
- 2 new ATRs for BW likely?
- Substantial construction completion on airport hotel (Four Points by Sheraton at POS Aeropark).
- Opening of part of new TAB terminal?
- New services to TAB?
- return of pre-covid capacity to markets like POS (which I think is one of the few English speaking Caribbean markets which hasn't rebounded fully. WS to YYZ, AC to YYZ, AA to MIA (only one flight in the system from early next year), B6 to FLL, CM to PTY (not at pre-covid levels), BW to BGI.
- Any refleeting plans at JY? More ATRs?
- Could we see a Guyanese national carrier emerge?
- PY to expand its fleet?
- Fly All Ways to start scheduled flights?
AA1818
jbs2886 wrote:caribny wrote:A388 wrote:It is indeed too soon to be skeptical, no new airline will gain a lot of popularity in just a few months. It will take several years to see whether a new airline is going in the right direction. Becoming skeptical this soon is pure nuts.
A388
Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.
Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.
The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.
caribbean484 wrote:jbs2886 wrote:caribny wrote:
Are the investors that patient if they lose buckets of money in these years? There is always something else that they can do with their money, unless it is some sort of passion project. DR has seen many airlines come and go.
Not saying that this isnt going to work. I just wonder if starting a bunch of low frequency routes is the way to go, or if more careful expansion, based on careful market analysis, mightnt be better.
The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.
My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.
jbs2886 wrote:caribbean484 wrote:jbs2886 wrote:
The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.
My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.
Yea, but there is simply no way Bain thought this was a short-term investment. Any sophisticated investor realizes airlines are long-term investments (at best). Bain is huge, they aren't expecting every investment to be a short-term gain.
You do raise a good point on US competitors, my thought there is Arajet's costs probably give them a lot of wiggle room to carry the low fare customers and still be OK. I also think it’s important that they are making SDQ a hub, not necessarily US to SDQ O&D. I honestly don't know if a Caribbean hub will work (didn't seem to work great for SJU).
caribbean484 wrote:- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean
caribbean484 wrote:- Yep, I believe it's going to open in 2025? It's a good project to help bring more activity to Piarco and generally POS economic diversification.
caribbean484 wrote:I could be wrong but I thought that parts of the new terminal would open in the latter part of 2023, but perhaps those dates have slipped. I haven't been to TAB in years!- I thought that project is planned to be completed in 2024. There are photos of the construction going on.
caribbean484 wrote:- One can only hope TAB can get more services for the winter 23/24, more so the reintroduction of Sunwings YYZ service since they own the Starfish hotel on the island.
caribbean484 wrote:- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.
caribbean484 wrote:- I thought that they already have an ATR?
aa1818 wrote:caribbean484 wrote:- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean
Interesting- do you think increased capacity (JFK, YYZ, KIN, PMB, SLU, ANU, BGI where I think are underserved currently) or new routes?caribbean484 wrote:- Yep, I believe it's going to open in 2025? It's a good project to help bring more activity to Piarco and generally POS economic diversification.
Yes I think 2025 is the target date but during 2023, we should see much of the building structure go up which will change the landscape at Piarco.caribbean484 wrote:I could be wrong but I thought that parts of the new terminal would open in the latter part of 2023, but perhaps those dates have slipped. I haven't been to TAB in years!- I thought that project is planned to be completed in 2024. There are photos of the construction going on.caribbean484 wrote:- One can only hope TAB can get more services for the winter 23/24, more so the reintroduction of Sunwings YYZ service since they own the Starfish hotel on the island.
That would be good. They desperately need more airlift.caribbean484 wrote:- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.
How many flights is JFK currently- am I right in saying that pre pandemic there were days when BW had 5 flights and other days when B6 had 2 from JFK (apart from the FLL).
Looking at many destinations though, while loads are high and yields are high, there is clearly room for more capacity which hasn't come back. AA to MIA goes 1 daily soon. B6 hasn't re-entered FLL. AC and WS aren't flying into YYZ. There's no LI to BGI and BW is still 50% of what it was into BGI. SLU is 2x weekly and in March BA will drop UVF/ POS (5x weekly). There's a lot of un-replaced capacity. The pace of rebound in every other territory in the Caribbean has outstripped that of POS. I have no doubt that it will get back there are grow, but it is surprising how long we can tolerate flying and paying for POS-MIA-BGI and POS-MIA-YYZ.caribbean484 wrote:- I thought that they already have an ATR?
Correct, I believe they just recently got their first...that's why I asked about more ATRs!
Cheers,
AA1818
jbs2886 wrote:caribbean484 wrote:jbs2886 wrote:
The investor in this circumstance is Bain Capital, one of the largest private equity firms. They know what they are getting into - years and years of losses. This isn't an unsophisticated investor, they know exactly what they are doing. Further, starting slowly doesn't build a network for a hub, which is the goal.
My only concern with Arajet is how the rest of the market reacts to them. The DR is a large market with a lot of opportunities for improvements to network expansion, however Arajet to the US will be in serious competition with B6 out of NYC and NK to Florida for P2P pax. Are they ready for that fight?
Canada is more plausible since no Canadian airline flies to SDQ, however can anyone say what the size of the market is there?
As for investors as Caribny mentioned Bain, while having a lot of money to invest, are also facing issues with rising interest rates and will be looking at a return as soon as possible so Arajet is using up its capital injection to quickly expand in order to provide that return.
Yea, but there is simply no way Bain thought this was a short-term investment. Any sophisticated investor realizes airlines are long-term investments (at best). Bain is huge, they aren't expecting every investment to be a short-term gain.
You do raise a good point on US competitors, my thought there is Arajet's costs probably give them a lot of wiggle room to carry the low fare customers and still be OK. I also think its important that they are making SDQ a hub, not necessarily US to SDQ O&D. I honestly don't know if a Caribbean hub will work (didn't seem to work great for SJU).
aa1818 wrote:caribbean484 wrote:- I think we will see a more expanded BW and InterCaribbean
Interesting- do you think increased capacity (JFK, YYZ, KIN, PMB, SLU, ANU, BGI where I think are underserved currently) or new routes?
aa1818 wrote:caribbean484 wrote:caribbean484 wrote:- Well, the demand has increased significantly as loads out of pos on BW are extremely high in the off season and Christmas was very busy. I think people forgot that POS is not a tourist destination and was one of the last to reopen, so it will take time to recover.
How many flights is JFK currently- am I right in saying that pre pandemic there were days when BW had 5 flights and other days when B6 had 2 from JFK (apart from the FLL).
Looking at many destinations though, while loads are high and yields are high, there is clearly room for more capacity which hasn't come back. AA to MIA goes 1 daily soon. B6 hasn't re-entered FLL. AC and WS aren't flying into YYZ. There's no LI to BGI and BW is still 50% of what it was into BGI. SLU is 2x weekly and in March BA will drop UVF/ POS (5x weekly). There's a lot of un-replaced capacity. The pace of rebound in every other territory in the Caribbean has outstripped that of POS. I have no doubt that it will get back there are grow, but it is surprising how long we can tolerate flying and paying for POS-MIA-BGI and POS-MIA-YYZ.