Welcome to the Boeing 787 Production/Delivery thread - 2023 edition.

Please continue to post your news and discussions below.

Link to the previous locked 2022 edition:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468437

Hi All,

Below is my predictions for the stored and rework frames ( pre LN 1127 ) delivery's this year ;

[*] QF 3
[*] TK 3
[*] LH 3
[*] BA 2
[*] KLM 2
[*] UA 2
[*] AA 3
[*] QR 6
[*] ANA 4
[*] EY 1

The Airlines not sure list ;

SQ
Scoot
LAN
Saudi Arabian Airlines
Vistara
Gulf Air
Etihad Airways
Eva Air
Korean Air
Oman Air
Air Europa
Lessor's

NTU frames does anyone know if these will be delivered to new buyers ;

Juneyao Airlines
China Southern Airlines
China Eastern Airlines
WestJet
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA

I am probably wrong with the NTU's and missing a few stored 787's but let's start the conversation.

As per slide 22, Singapore Airlines is expecting to receive two x B78X before 31st March 2023: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/slide-q2 ... eID=737717.

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:

As per slide 22, Singapore Airlines is expecting to receive two x B78X before 31st March 2023: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/slide-q2 ... eID=737717.

I would venture to guess that those are the lines 1144 and 1148, respectively just out of the FAL and currently in position 1 of the FAL, rather than any reworked frames, of which three (lines 1000, 1068 and 1080) are earmarked for SQ.

TK773ER wrote:

Hi All,

Below is my predictions for the stored and rework frames ( pre LN 1127 ) delivery's this year ;

Any delivery outlook for new built frames?

HB-IWC wrote:

I would venture to guess that those are the lines 1144 and 1148, respectively just out of the FAL and currently in position 1 of the FAL, rather than any reworked frames, of which three (lines 1000, 1068 and 1080) are earmarked for SQ.

Thanks - I and others were wondering what happened to 9V-SCP. https://www.airliners.net/photo/Singapo ... /6021307/L

At the time of FAA resumption approval, approximately 112 frames <= LN1126 had flown but not delivered. The 112 is derived from A.Netter PM's information in the 787 resumption thread (LN688 and LN1118 have not yet flown and are not included in that count). Since resumption, there have been 31 deliveries in 2022. I think 10 are from line numbers >= 1127 and 21 from line numbers <= 1126. So there should now be approximately 91 frames (112 - 21) from the pre-1127 set.

I would expect LN887 D-APBC for LH and LN1074 PH-BKK for KL to be among the first reworked frames out the door this month.

Any airlines expecting their new first 787’s this year?

TK773ER wrote:

Hi All,

Below is my predictions for the stored and rework frames ( pre LN 1127 ) delivery's this year ;

[*] QF 3
[*] TK 3
[*] LH 3
[*] BA 2
[*] KLM 2
[*] UA 2
[*] AA 3
[*] QR 6
[*] ANA 4
[*] EY 1

The Airlines not sure list ;

SQ
Scoot
LAN
Saudi Arabian Airlines
Vistara
Gulf Air
Etihad Airways
Eva Air
Korean Air
Oman Air
Air Europa
Lessor's

NTU frames does anyone know if these will be delivered to new buyers ;

Juneyao Airlines
China Southern Airlines
China Eastern Airlines
WestJet
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA

I am probably wrong with the NTU's and missing a few stored 787's but let's start the conversation.

Saudia 787-10 HZ-AR32 just came back from storage and is probably heading into rework. Given we know it takes about 5 months from out of storage to predelivey, I would say June/July for delivery on that frame

MileHFL400 wrote:

Any airlines expecting their new first 787’s this year?

Hawaiian
Mongolian

Rhal97 wrote:

MileHFL400 wrote:

Any airlines expecting their new first 787’s this year?

Hawaiian
Mongolian

Iraqi Airways is another one I can think of

Iraqi still have to set the engines dont tey?

Rhal97 wrote:

MileHFL400 wrote:

Any airlines expecting their new first 787’s this year?

Hawaiian
Mongolian

EK?

B787register wrote:

Iraqi still have to set the engines dont tey?

Iraqi selected GE according to Boeing’s order data.

Thank you Polot

GF is expecting the remaining 3 787s this year, and will likely be used to launch USA flights

Hawaiian defers 787s to Q4 2023 and increases order from 10 to 12 aircraft

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hawai ... 1672872356

G-ZBLD (787-10) is out of rework and will go into short term storage until BA is ready to take it. - source Matt cawby

PH-BKK is expected fly home tomorrow evening as KL9874

Great thread, thanks for all the info. Is the rework the same for every airframe? And do we know their throughput....like avg of 10 reworked a/c per month? That would tell us how long this phase will last to get through the 91 a/c. UA has two that were flown up to Payne 5 months ago, but not slated for delivery until Q3-ish. LN 1114 and 1122, anyone know if they started rework? Thank you!

Rhal97 wrote:

PH-BKK is expected fly home tomorrow evening as KL9874

LN1074 B787-10 PH-BKK delivery flight Jan 06 2023 KLM9874 CHS to AMS.
When Boeing releases info on December deliveries, we will know whether or not the contractual delivery was in December.

Here is an attempt at enumerating the line numbers of undelivered frames < LN1127. This is derived from public web sources.

Listed below are 4 x 787-8, 71 x 787-9, 18 x 787-10 for a total of 93. Includes LN688 and LN1118 which have not yet flown. Please feel free to check and correct any errors

Lufthansa 787-9 D-ABPC performed 2 test flights both PAE-PAE on 5 Jan

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/d-abpc

What exactly does a " rework " involve ? ( apologies if this has been explained before ).

Singapore Airlines 787-10 9V-SCR LN1080 ferried SKF-CHS as BOE18 (6 Jan)

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-scr

WestWing wrote:

Here is an attempt at enumerating the line numbers of undelivered frames < LN1127. This is derived from public web sources.

Listed below are 4 x 787-8, 71 x 787-9, 18 x 787-10 for a total of 93. Includes LN688 and LN1118 which have not yet flown. Please feel free to check and correct any errors

Code: Select all

787-8

   985
  1065
  1111
  1115

787-9

   688
   887
   898
   913
   955
   969
   971
   983
   988
   990
   992
   997
   998
  1009
  1011
  1014
  1015
  1019
  1020
  1023
  1027
  1028
  1031
  1033
  1035
  1036
  1037
  1039
  1042
  1043
  1046
  1049
  1050
  1051
  1053
  1063
  1066
  1067
  1069
  1070
  1073
  1076
  1077
  1079
  1081
  1082
  1083
  1085
  1086
  1088
  1089
  1090
  1092
  1093
  1097
  1100
  1101
  1102
  1105
  1106
  1107
  1108
  1110
  1113
  1116
  1117
  1119
  1120
  1121
  1123
  1125

787-10

  1000
  1010
  1016
  1034
  1040
  1052
  1064
  1068
  1072
  1078
  1080
  1084
  1096
  1104
  1114
  1118
  1122
  1124

I am predicting 30 of the pre LN 1127 will get delivered this year , What time frame will it take to clear the backlog ?

WestWing wrote:

Rhal97 wrote:

PH-BKK is expected fly home tomorrow evening as KL9874

LN1074 B787-10 PH-BKK delivery flight Jan 06 2023 KLM9874 CHS to AMS.
When Boeing releases info on December deliveries, we will know whether or not the contractual delivery was in December.

PH-BKI is expected to be delivered next February, as per Dutch aviation forum Scramble. From that same post this will be the final 787 KLM delivery for 2023, 4 more 787s will be delivered 2024, one more in 2025. PH-BKM isn't mentioned anywhere in internal KLM information anymore it appears, so I suppose this lease has been cancelled by KLM.

TC957 wrote:

What exactly does a " rework " involve ? ( apologies if this has been explained before ).

Rework involves remediation of any of a number of issues found during the 787 quality control audit and subsequent voluntary delivery pause. The most substantial of which involve fuselage & other joins between major sections that did not meet manufacturing or assembly tolerances.

Those take some time because for the fuselage, the interior around the join must be removed for inspection, and in the worst case, the join separated, tolerances addressed, then realigned and reassembled properly.

DreamDriver wrote:

Great thread, thanks for all the info. Is the rework the same for every airframe? And do we know their throughput....like avg of 10 reworked a/c per month? That would tell us how long this phase will last to get through the 91 a/c. UA has two that were flown up to Payne 5 months ago, but not slated for delivery until Q3-ish. LN 1114 and 1122, anyone know if they started rework? Thank you!

By the end of 2024 they expect to clear the inventory that needed rework. Here is what the CFO, Brian West said at the Q3 2022 earnings call - 10/26/2022

"On the 87 program, we delivered 9 airplanes in the quarter and have 115 airplanes in inventory. The pace of deliveries from inventory going forward will be based on finishing rework as well as customer fleet planning requirements. We expect most of these airplanes to be delivered over the next two years. We continue to produce at low rate and will gradually return to five airplanes per month over time. Near term, the supply chain remains a key watch item for 87 production and deliveries. Longer term, with more than 400 airplanes in backlog, we anticipate higher production rates due to the expected wide-body market recovery."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/454945 ... transcript

VS11 wrote:

DreamDriver wrote:

Great thread, thanks for all the info. Is the rework the same for every airframe? And do we know their throughput....like avg of 10 reworked a/c per month? That would tell us how long this phase will last to get through the 91 a/c. UA has two that were flown up to Payne 5 months ago, but not slated for delivery until Q3-ish. LN 1114 and 1122, anyone know if they started rework? Thank you!

By the end of 2024 they expect to clear the inventory that needed rework. Here is what the CFO, Brian West said at the Q3 2022 earnings call - 10/26/2022

"On the 87 program, we delivered 9 airplanes in the quarter and have 115 airplanes in inventory. The pace of deliveries from inventory going forward will be based on finishing rework as well as customer fleet planning requirements. We expect most of these airplanes to be delivered over the next two years. We continue to produce at low rate and will gradually return to five airplanes per month over time. Near term, the supply chain remains a key watch item for 87 production and deliveries. Longer term, with more than 400 airplanes in backlog, we anticipate higher production rates due to the expected wide-body market recovery."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/454945 ... transcript

Thank you! Good to know.

TK is taking delivery of 7 787's this year, I know three are currently getting rework done, The current production list and rate of two per month I can't see the next LN for TK which makes me believe the remaining four might be NTU frames does anyone know ?

frigatebird wrote:

PH-BKM isn't mentioned anywhere in internal KLM information anymore it appears, so I suppose this lease has been cancelled by KLM.

Interesting. This may explain why LN1118 - which was photographed with KLM logo on tail, but white fuselage - has not yet flown.

TK773ER wrote:

TK is taking delivery of 7 787's this year, I know three are currently getting rework done, The current production list and rate of two per month I can't see the next LN for TK which makes me believe the remaining four might be NTU frames does anyone know ?

I don't pretend to have knowledge, but there are 4 Norwegian 787-9 NTU's sitting in the desert. TK does not seem to have problems to take NTU's from other airlines in order to speed up deliveries, see the ex SU A359 NTU's they're operating now.

frigatebird wrote:

TK773ER wrote:

TK is taking delivery of 7 787's this year, I know three are currently getting rework done, The current production list and rate of two per month I can't see the next LN for TK which makes me believe the remaining four might be NTU frames does anyone know ?

I don't pretend to have knowledge, but there are 4 Norwegian 787-9 NTU's sitting in the desert. TK does not seem to have problems to take NTU's from other airlines in order to speed up deliveries, see the ex SU A359 NTU's they're operating now.

In regard to this, is Juneyao still planning to take the 4 that have been built for them. If not, those would seem a better fit for NTUs destined for TK as they have a proper business class installed, whereas the Norwegian ones would require a retrofit, something TK is not known to engage in.

WestWing wrote:

frigatebird wrote:

PH-BKM isn't mentioned anywhere in internal KLM information anymore it appears, so I suppose this lease has been cancelled by KLM.

Interesting. This may explain why LN1118 - which was photographed with KLM logo on tail, but white fuselage - has not yet flown.

On the '787 Tables' site the status of LN1118 is still 'Pre-Flight Prep'. The tables have been updated, PH-BKK is been removed from the 'Current Production' tab. I'm afraid we have to wait until the plane can actually be spotted in an airline livery.

Polot wrote:

B787register wrote:

Iraqi still have to set the engines dont tey?

Iraqi selected GE according to Boeing’s order data.

When are Iraqi set to receive their first 787?

HB-IWC wrote:

frigatebird wrote:

TK773ER wrote:

TK is taking delivery of 7 787's this year, I know three are currently getting rework done, The current production list and rate of two per month I can't see the next LN for TK which makes me believe the remaining four might be NTU frames does anyone know ?

I don't pretend to have knowledge, but there are 4 Norwegian 787-9 NTU's sitting in the desert. TK does not seem to have problems to take NTU's from other airlines in order to speed up deliveries, see the ex SU A359 NTU's they're operating now.

In regard to this, is Juneyao still planning to take the 4 that have been built for them. If not, those would seem a better fit for NTUs destined for TK as they have a proper business class installed, whereas the Norwegian ones would require a retrofit, something TK is not known to engage in.

According to Boeing O&D no remaining orders for Juneyao so they must of been cancelled, The bonus with these four they come fitted with GE engines.

TK773ER wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

frigatebird wrote:

I don't pretend to have knowledge, but there are 4 Norwegian 787-9 NTU's sitting in the desert. TK does not seem to have problems to take NTU's from other airlines in order to speed up deliveries, see the ex SU A359 NTU's they're operating now.

In regard to this, is Juneyao still planning to take the 4 that have been built for them. If not, those would seem a better fit for NTUs destined for TK as they have a proper business class installed, whereas the Norwegian ones would require a retrofit, something TK is not known to engage in.

According to Boeing O&D no remaining orders for Juneyao so they must of been cancelled, The bonus with these four they come fitted with GE engines.

Orders for many Chinese airlines are only identified as the airplanes are delivered. Juneyao ordered one plane in November 2017, my bet is that the 4 unidentified customer airplanes ordered in November 207 are the 4 Juneyao planes built but not yet delivered.

But that being said delivery is very much in doubt in my mind, we very well my see this unidentified customer order cancelled at some point.

inkjet7 wrote:

WestWing wrote:

frigatebird wrote:

PH-BKM isn't mentioned anywhere in internal KLM information anymore it appears, so I suppose this lease has been cancelled by KLM.

Interesting. This may explain why LN1118 - which was photographed with KLM logo on tail, but white fuselage - has not yet flown.

On the '787 Tables' site the status of LN1118 is still 'Pre-Flight Prep'. The tables have been updated, PH-BKK is been removed from the 'Current Production' tab. I'm afraid we have to wait until the plane can actually be spotted in an airline livery.

KL has removed this one because the cabin specs are no longer up to date for the new Premium Comfort cabin. All future 78X deliveries will now have the new cabin installed straight from the Boeing factory rather than retrofitting it after delivery

So KLM will refuse PH-BKM due to its interior that they ordered not being what they now want? Surely that would be a case of you bought it, you specified it, here it is - now sell it if you don't want it?

Well...for one thing KL didnt 'buy' it. BKM was actually an earlier built airframe that was not part of the original KL order. Its owned by ALC to be leased to KL, but now its being returned to lessor

Lufthansa's D-ABPC (LN 887) seems to be next in line for delivery any day now.

FlyingHonu001 wrote:

Well...for one thing KL didnt 'buy' it. BKM was actually an earlier built airframe that was not part of the original KL order. Its owned by ALC to be leased to KL, but now its being returned to lessor

And if you wonder: PH-BKK (42500) was in the original 25-plane AF/KL order.

HB-IWC wrote:

Lufthansa's D-ABPC (LN 887) seems to be next in line for delivery any day now.

Jan 19th


Source: Matt cawby

inkjet7 wrote:

FlyingHonu001 wrote:

Well...for one thing KL didnt 'buy' it. BKM was actually an earlier built airframe that was not part of the original KL order. Its owned by ALC to be leased to KL, but now its being returned to lessor

And if you wonder: PH-BKK (42500) was in the original 25-plane AF/KL order.

This is surprising, I figured KLM needed the -10s given the 747 retirements and AMS limitations. Who knows, maybe a bit of hardball negotiating with the lessor as the -10 doesn't have a huge customer base.

Not all KL 78X's are created equal. 5 out of the 8 planes currently operational are under financial lease. All the rest are/will be properly owned

jbs2886 wrote:

This is surprising, I figured KLM needed the -10s given the 747 retirements and AMS limitations. Who knows, maybe a bit of hardball negotiating with the lessor as the -10 doesn't have a huge customer base.

There must be more to this than meets the eye.

Does anyone know who cancelled the two 787s in December? I think it was one -9 and one -10 but am not sure.

On a separate note, during the investor's call I think one of the Boeing managers had said that the man-hours needed to complete the rework on a 787 and prep for delivery are more than the man-hours to produce a brand new 787. Earlier, if I remember correctly, the Seattle Times had reported that it takes typically five months of elapsed time from the time a 787 is brought out of storage to delivery - but I do not know how accurate that is.

Boeing say they delivered two -8s to American in December. Does anyone know which MSNs?

WestWing wrote:

On a separate note, during the investor's call I think one of the Boeing managers had said that the man-hours needed to complete the rework on a 787 and prep for delivery are more than the man-hours to produce a brand new 787. Earlier, if I remember correctly, the Seattle Times had reported that it takes typically five months of elapsed time from the time a 787 is brought out of storage to delivery - but I do not know how accurate that is.

The 5 month estimate came from an Aviation Week article by Guy Norris. It includes about a month of normal storage restoration, and up to 2 months of routine painting, inspection, testing and pre-delivery activities.

The actual remediation work could take from 1 to 3 months. The time varies as not all aircraft are affected by all the discovered quality control issues.

As far as man-hours, I haven't seen that quote in the earnings call transcripts, but no doubt 5 months of prep work are going to be significant. Especially if you include the routine activities. Putting an aircraft into storage and then bringing it out again, has a cost.

Boeing has estimated the abnormal remediation cost to be around $2B, which is probably in the range of $15M to $20M per inventoried aircraft. The majority of that is likely to be labor-related. But is probably less than the production & assembly labor.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... -challenge