Boeing 787 Production/Deliveries - 2023

TK773ER · Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:19 am

A359bw wrote:
The 6th 787-9 for LH will be LN1011 (ex Norwegian), which will be handed over in Q3 2023, including the new Allegris cabin.

I wonder if LH is taking LN's 955, 971 and 983 all four ex Norwegian.

edealinfo · Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:24 am

Avatar2go wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Thanks for this info although my inquiry on time from "pre-flight prep" to delivery, was for a Line numbers after 1127 that don't need any rework. I assuming from your response above that this too can take 3 to 6 weeks?

I believe so, but you can read the article and draw your own conclusions from Guy's reporting. He said it depends on non-conformances and any flaws identified by the customer.

Firstly, thanks for your response. My question relates to aircraft that don't need rework so I thought it would be shorter than 3 to 6 weeks.

TK773ER wrote:
MSN / LN - 64224 / 1119 A7-BHP 787-9 Ferried VCV-PAE 21Jan23
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a7-bhp

Wow, isn't that the 33rd 787 pulled out of storage, of the 93 pre Line #1127 not-yet-delivered stored 787s?

It seems to be that they are pulling out far too many 787s that they can work on. PAE can only accommodate 9 787s in the 747 assembly line. Do they intend to complete rework at a faster speed than previously anticipated? Or, are they just emptying VCV of stored 787s?

jeffrey0032j · Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:13 am

edealinfo wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Thanks for this info although my inquiry on time from "pre-flight prep" to delivery, was for a Line numbers after 1127 that don't need any rework. I assuming from your response above that this too can take 3 to 6 weeks?

I believe so, but you can read the article and draw your own conclusions from Guy's reporting. He said it depends on non-conformances and any flaws identified by the customer.

Firstly, thanks for your response. My question relates to aircraft that don't need rework so I thought it would be shorter than 3 to 6 weeks.

TK773ER wrote:
MSN / LN - 64224 / 1119 A7-BHP 787-9 Ferried VCV-PAE 21Jan23
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a7-bhp

Wow, isn't that the 33rd 787 pulled out of storage, of the 93 pre Line #1127 not-yet-delivered stored 787s?

It seems to be that they are pulling out far too many 787s that they can work on. PAE can only accommodate 9 787s in the 747 assembly line. Do they intend to complete rework at a faster speed than previously anticipated? Or, are they just emptying VCV of stored 787s?

The 747 line is in addition to the existing 787 line at PAE.

edealinfo · Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:09 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
The 747 line is in addition to the existing 787 line at PAE.

I thought they shut that down because production of new 787s was moved and consolidated in South Carolina.

jeffrey0032j · Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:55 am

edealinfo wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
The 747 line is in addition to the existing 787 line at PAE.

I thought they shut that down because production of new 787s was moved and consolidated in South Carolina.

Production of new frames have shifted to CHS, but the line has been marked for and used for rework ever since the last frame rolled out. The recent addition of the 747 line provides additional capacity for rework at PAE.

edealinfo · Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:18 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
The 747 line is in addition to the existing 787 line at PAE.

I thought they shut that down because production of new 787s was moved and consolidated in South Carolina.

Production of new frames have shifted to CHS, but the line has been marked for and used for rework ever since the last frame rolled out. The recent addition of the 747 line provides additional capacity for rework at PAE.

Thanks...and, how many "positions"/spaces/slots are at at the original 787 housing unit at PAE (that's now being used for rework)?

TC957 · Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:23 am

Might be cheaper for Boeing to pull them from VCV storage and bring them to PAE when space permits to save on storage fees.

Avatar2go · Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:42 am

I think it's reasonable to conclude that Boeing knows what they are doing here, even if we don't understand all the details. They have remediated enough frames now to understand exactly what is involved, and how to best go about it.

A359bw · Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:58 am

TK773ER wrote:
A359bw wrote:
The 6th 787-9 for LH will be LN1011 (ex Norwegian), which will be handed over in Q3 2023, including the new Allegris cabin.

I wonder if LH is taking LN's 955, 971 and 983 all four ex Norwegian.

it would make sense, in my opinion, to take all four of these aircraft, and i think it will.

JJWess · Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:16 pm

This has probably been answered, but if a customer were to place a 787 order today, how long would it be until they receive it?
My understanding is that Boeing is working on getting the undelivered 787’s reworked first before building new ones…?

scbriml · Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:57 pm

JJWess wrote:
This has probably been answered, but if a customer were to place a 787 order today, how long would it be until they receive it?
My understanding is that Boeing is working on getting the undelivered 787’s reworked first before building new ones…?

There’s really no definitive answer and it would depend on a lot of different factors. Who the customer is; how many frames; what are they prepared to accept; etc.

Leeham recently reported that some customers have been told they face an additional 15 month delay in receiving 787s.

fun2fly · Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:13 pm

scbriml wrote:
JJWess wrote:
This has probably been answered, but if a customer were to place a 787 order today, how long would it be until they receive it?
My understanding is that Boeing is working on getting the undelivered 787’s reworked first before building new ones…?

There’s really no definitive answer and it would depend on a lot of different factors. Who the customer is; how many frames; what are they prepared to accept; etc.

Leeham recently reported that some customers have been told they face an additional 15 month delay in receiving 787s.

United ordered their 100 frames last month and will get some in late 2024.

TK773ER · Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:33 pm

MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

scbriml · Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:02 am

fun2fly wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JJWess wrote:
This has probably been answered, but if a customer were to place a 787 order today, how long would it be until they receive it?
My understanding is that Boeing is working on getting the undelivered 787’s reworked first before building new ones…?

There’s really no definitive answer and it would depend on a lot of different factors. Who the customer is; how many frames; what are they prepared to accept; etc.

Leeham recently reported that some customers have been told they face an additional 15 month delay in receiving 787s.

United ordered their 100 frames last month and will get some in late 2024.

Yes, having ordered 100 frames, I'm sure United got to pretty much pick their delivery slots. We also don't know if United were prepared to accept NTUs of other airlines (which would be available more quickly).

Other customers are apparently not so lucky. As I said, there's really no definitive answer to the question.

JohanTally · Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:03 am

TK773ER wrote:
MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

Looks like they did some flight testing over the Atlantic before turning West towards SKF.

trex8 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:38 am

scbriml wrote:
JJWess wrote:
This has probably been answered, but if a customer were to place a 787 order today, how long would it be until they receive it?
My understanding is that Boeing is working on getting the undelivered 787’s reworked first before building new ones…?

There’s really no definitive answer and it would depend on a lot of different factors. Who the customer is; how many frames; what are they prepared to accept; etc.

Leeham recently reported that some customers have been told they face an additional 15 month delay in receiving 787s.

FWIW the 787s CI ordered in Sept last year (16 + 8 options) start delivering in 2025. Question is, is that the earliest Boeing can do or what CI wants.

RobertLoblaw · Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:51 am

There's a WestJet 787 in production right now. Can someone tell me if it's in WJ colours or was the cancellation of future deliveries in time to have just a white tail?

edealinfo · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:41 am

TK773ER wrote:
MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

TK773ER · Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:49 am

edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

I hear you, Looking at Pre Flight frames below possibly add more to the stored list;

1135 787-9 AerCap Ethiopian Airlines
1139 787-10 Eva Air
1140 787-8 Japan Airlines
1142 787-10 Eva Air

FAL and about to enter FAL

1147 787-9 WestJet this one will most like join LN 1116 as NTU.
1150 787-9 Etihad Airways
1153 787-10 KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
1158 787-9 Etihad Airways
1160 787-9 Etihad Airways
1163 787-9 Etihad Airways

Singapore Airlines also has LN's 1144, 1148, 1155, 1157, 1161 and 1165 with two being delivered by March 2023 not sure on further delivery's beyond the two , SIA also has LN's 1000, 1066 and 1080 stored with 1080 recently pulled out of storage and into rework. Boeing's O&D sheet has SIA with eight remaining on order.

Who knows a good dozen new builds ending up in storage again.

HB-IWC · Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:26 am

edealinfo wrote:
Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

You make it seem as if this is something leasing companies can just arrange in the course of an afternoon. These aircraft have been configured to the specifications of their destined operators and are therefore to some extent undesirable, even to airlines who may urgently need the additional capacity. From that perspective, the five identically configured frames that Lufthansa is currently taking, and presumably the four NTUs it will take from Norwegian stock are somewhat more marketable. I would rather look for some airline picking up the four identically configured Juneyao frames, LN969/1009/1037/1053. A stand alone oddball built for MIAT or Ethiopian stands little to no chance in this respect.

Avatar2go · Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:22 am

edealinfo wrote:

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

These comments reflect a lack of understanding of the build-to-order process. A 787 is not a uniform widget, you can't just ship it to a different customer
or alter it in midstream of assembly.

The needed components are scheduled long in advance. If the aircraft is scheduled to be built, that was agreed upon a long time ago by both manufacturer and customer, and everything was aligned for the period of assembly.

Circumstances can then change for both, maybe the aircraft is delayed or the airline is unable to take delivery. But it needs to remain in the programmed flow nonetheless. To remove it on short notice would be far more costly & disruptive.

Storage is the buffer that adapts to those changes, and it's in no way improper or unusual for new aircraft to flow in and out of storage. Especially in view of the interruptions that ocurred in the 787 and 737 lines. It would be a miracle if they didn't need to use storage, as they are now.

NZ321 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:45 am

TK773ER wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

I hear you, Looking at Pre Flight frames below possibly add more to the stored list;

1135 787-9 AerCap Ethiopian Airlines
1139 787-10 Eva Air
1140 787-8 Japan Airlines
1142 787-10 Eva Air

FAL and about to enter FAL

1147 787-9 WestJet this one will most like join LN 1116 as NTU.
1150 787-9 Etihad Airways
1153 787-10 KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
1158 787-9 Etihad Airways
1160 787-9 Etihad Airways
1163 787-9 Etihad Airways

Singapore Airlines also has LN's 1144, 1148, 1155, 1157, 1161 and 1165 with two being delivered by March 2023 not sure on further delivery's beyond the two , SIA also has LN's 1000, 1066 and 1080 stored with 1080 recently pulled out of storage and into rework. Boeing's O&D sheet has SIA with eight remaining on order.

Who knows a good dozen new builds ending up in storage again.

Now that's interesting reading. SQ have so many completed frames awaiting final testing and delivery?

Rhal97 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:59 am

TK773ER wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

I hear you, Looking at Pre Flight frames below possibly add more to the stored list;

1135 787-9 AerCap Ethiopian Airlines
1139 787-10 Eva Air
1140 787-8 Japan Airlines
1142 787-10 Eva Air

FAL and about to enter FAL

1147 787-9 WestJet this one will most like join LN 1116 as NTU.
1150 787-9 Etihad Airways
1153 787-10 KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
1158 787-9 Etihad Airways
1160 787-9 Etihad Airways
1163 787-9 Etihad Airways

Singapore Airlines also has LN's 1144, 1148, 1155, 1157, 1161 and 1165 with two being delivered by March 2023 not sure on further delivery's beyond the two , SIA also has LN's 1000, 1066 and 1080 stored with 1080 recently pulled out of storage and into rework. Boeing's O&D sheet has SIA with eight remaining on order.

Who knows a good dozen new builds ending up in storage again.

With SQ another 4 frames are under a lessor that’s unidentified. But those come towards the end

bspc · Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:53 pm

edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MIAT Mongolian Airlines ferried for storage MSN 66877 787-9 N8572C 6th flight CHS-SKF
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/boe581

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

Production of aircraft has many moving parts. It's not just Boeing but all of their suppliers. It's all planned out months in advance. The aircraft has to be built, whether the customer decides to cancel the order or not. You can't just disrupt the entire supply chain only because one aircraft all of a sudden doesn't have a home anymore.

jeffrey0032j · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:29 pm

NZ321 wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

This is shocking. This is Line 1128 which means that it was made to exacting specifications (no re-work needed). For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away. Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

Sorry to say that Line # 1127 (AerCap - Ethiopian) & 1128 (ALC - MIAT) are both in storage! Why aren't the lessors placing it with other airlines?

I hear you, Looking at Pre Flight frames below possibly add more to the stored list;

1135 787-9 AerCap Ethiopian Airlines
1139 787-10 Eva Air
1140 787-8 Japan Airlines
1142 787-10 Eva Air

FAL and about to enter FAL

1147 787-9 WestJet this one will most like join LN 1116 as NTU.
1150 787-9 Etihad Airways
1153 787-10 KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
1158 787-9 Etihad Airways
1160 787-9 Etihad Airways
1163 787-9 Etihad Airways

Singapore Airlines also has LN's 1144, 1148, 1155, 1157, 1161 and 1165 with two being delivered by March 2023 not sure on further delivery's beyond the two , SIA also has LN's 1000, 1066 and 1080 stored with 1080 recently pulled out of storage and into rework. Boeing's O&D sheet has SIA with eight remaining on order.

Who knows a good dozen new builds ending up in storage again.

Now that's interesting reading. SQ have so many completed frames awaiting final testing and delivery?

The production roll out is currently at 1145, anything above it has not been completed yet.

Stitch · Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:02 pm

edealinfo wrote:
For the life of me, I can't understand why Boeing completes an entire plane, goes through all the phases with equipment, supplies and valuable man power, to assemble an aircraft for which it knows the customer won't take delivery right away.

It is called "Just in Time Manufacturing" and it is a system where all the components needed to assemble a 787 airframe are scheduled to arrive at specific date points so that the frame moves as smoothly through production as possible. So even if Boeing and ALC have come to an agreement about the disposition of the frame, it still has to be assembled because all of the parts to build it are present and those parts are tasked to that specific airframe.

edealinfo wrote:
Couldn't they have instead swapped that production spot for an airline customer who needed one ASAP, and there are many of them?

A fair bit of kit in a 787 (or any other modern commercial airliner) is referred to as BFE - Buyer Furnished Equipment. Items like seats, lavatories, galleys, IFE, APUs and many avionics systems are ordered by the customer and then scheduled for delivery when the airframe is entering production. So even if there are customers who want 787s as quickly as possible, the customer-specific BFE is not available so it is not possible for Boeing to assemble an NTU frame in their airline configuration at that moment.

kanban · Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:01 pm

There is a belief that the 787 sections arrive at the FAL empty and conversion is simple because it'e an empty shell.. not the case, the sections are stuffed with as much systems hardware and BFE as possible.. it's much easier to install lavs and galleys when you can roll them in the end of the tube versus disassembling them and squeezing through the passenger doors. I think the sections come with all the electrical and hydraulic systems installed. the main wire bundle is specifically configured for the customer cabin plan and converting may mean a new bundle.

back in the 727 days Boeing built some generic white tails with a few options the eventual customer could have installed. The plan did not work well and the costs terminated the program.

jbs2886 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:06 pm

What's the best source for 787 production lists? ABCD list isn't great. I thought I had one bookmarked, but can't find it. Thanks in advance.

superbizzy73 · Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:42 am

Is N780HA still painted, or now a white tail? I thought I saw somewhere that it wasn't in the HA livery anymore, but I could definitely be wrong. Seems counterintuitive with their deliveries supposedly starting this year.

edealinfo · Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:31 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
The production roll out is currently at 1145, anything above it has not been completed yet.

LN 1145 will be delivered to customer in March/April 2023. So, it seems delivery is 2 to 3 months after "production roll out" (i.e., after assembly).

jbs2886 wrote:
What's the best source for 787 production lists? ABCD list isn't great. I thought I had one bookmarked, but can't find it. Thanks in advance.

There is a spectacular googledocs that tracks all 787s. Type this in google search "787 tables production and delivery google docs"
The first search result is the document.

Stitch wrote:
A fair bit of kit in a 787 (or any other modern commercial airliner) is referred to as BFE - Buyer Furnished Equipment. Items like seats, lavatories, galleys, IFE, APUs and many avionics systems are ordered by the customer and then scheduled for delivery when the airframe is entering production. So even if there are customers who want 787s as quickly as possible, the customer-specific BFE is not available so it is not possible for Boeing to assemble an NTU frame in their airline configuration at that moment.

kanban wrote:
There is a belief that the 787 sections arrive at the FAL empty and conversion is simple because it'e an empty shell.. not the case, the sections are stuffed with as much systems hardware and BFE as possible.. it's much easier to install lavs and galleys when you can roll them in the end of the tube versus disassembling them and squeezing through the passenger doors. I think the sections come with all the electrical and hydraulic systems installed. the main wire bundle is specifically configured for the customer cabin plan and converting may mean a new bundle. .

THANKS!

JerseyFlyer · Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:43 am

Stitch wrote:
It is called "Just in Time Manufacturing" and it is a system where all the components needed to assemble a 787 airframe are scheduled to arrive at specific date points so that the frame moves as smoothly through production as possible.

...and requires only one small delay to become "just too late"!

TK773ER · Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:57 pm

With January slipping away would it be fair to say one more delivery to Qatar A7-BHI for a total of three this month.
From February onwards would six per month be the average including reworked and factory fresh or is ten per month more accurate ?

shuck · Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:38 pm

Is this the correct variant breakdown for deliveries to end of December 2022

787-8 = 386
787-9 = 578
787-10 = 73

Delivered Total = 1037

Thanks

Rhal97 · Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:43 pm

TK773ER wrote:
With January slipping away would it be fair to say one more delivery to Qatar A7-BHI for a total of three this month.
From February onwards would six per month be the average including reworked and factory fresh or is ten per month more accurate ?

January 27th for A7-BHI

shuck · Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:47 pm

Please can anyone provide a flight number and destination for N881BK on delivery from VCV on 8/11/22.

Thanks

Scoreboard · Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:09 pm

shuck wrote:
Please can anyone provide a flight number and destination for N881BK on delivery from VCV on 8/11/22.

Thanks

FR24 shows

24Oct22 CHS-VCV AA9824 flight time 4:25
08Nov22 VCV-MIA AA9780 flight time 4:04

And it has been busy ever since entering service on 09Nov22, but still to visit my local (LHR)

shuck · Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:49 pm

Scoreboard wrote:
shuck wrote:
Please can anyone provide a flight number and destination for N881BK on delivery from VCV on 8/11/22.

Thanks

FR24 shows

24Oct22 CHS-VCV AA9824 flight time 4:25
08Nov22 VCV-MIA AA9780 flight time 4:04

And it has been busy ever since entering service on 09Nov22, but still to visit my local (LHR)

Cheers

qf789 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:54 am

Boeing has delayed plans to resume production of 5 787’s per month till later this year due to supply constraints but is still expecting to deliver 70-80 787’s for 2023

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... tid=Zxz2cZ

edealinfo · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:32 am

qf789 wrote:
Boeing has delayed plans to resume production of 5 787’s per month till later this year due to supply constraints but is still expecting to deliver 70-80 787’s for 2023

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... tid=Zxz2cZ

So, that translates to an average delivery rate of 6.25 787s a month. For these deliveries, is there a guesstimate of the mix/ ratio of reworked 787s to brand new 787s?

Also, how many deliveries so far for January 2023 and how many expected in next remaining days in Jan?
Thanks.

Avatar2go · Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:25 am

edealinfo wrote:
So, that translates to an average delivery rate of 6.25 787s a month. For these deliveries, is there a guesstimate of the mix/ ratio of reworked 787s to brand new 787s?

In the earnings call guidance, they said that 787 production would not exceed 5 per month, and that would not be until later in the year. So they may wind up in the realm of 40 to 50 new aircraft, with 30 to 40 coming out of inventory.

But production is still tied to supply chain issues, so it will continue to be bumpy. They mentioned that if production has to pause, they transfer people to rework activities, as there is no shortage of work.

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stoc ... -42812015/

TK773ER · Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:33 am

MSN 38470 LN 1092 787-9 CC-BGR ferried VCV-CHS
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/cc-bgr

HB-IWC · Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:57 am

TK773ER wrote:
MSN 38470 LN 1092 787-9 CC-BGR ferried VCV-CHS
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/cc-bgr

I have no idea which airlines are actually planning to take delivery of their aircraft but since LAN also has CC-BGQ in rework at CHS since November, I assume they are planning to take these?

Meanwhile QR A7-BHI LN1031 is about to leave PAE on delivery to DOH.

edealinfo · Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:54 am

TK773ER wrote:
MSN 38470 LN 1092 787-9 CC-BGR ferried VCV-CHS
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/cc-bgr

Frankly, the rate at which they are pulling 787s out of storage is puzzling. So, isn't this like 34 out of 93 that Boeing pulled out of storage. But, deliveries are not at the same high rate at which aircraft are being pulled out. Something doesn't add up. Hope someone can figure it out.

edealinfo · Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:57 am

Avatar2go wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
So, that translates to an average delivery rate of 6.25 787s a month. For these deliveries, is there a guesstimate of the mix/ ratio of reworked 787s to brand new 787s?

In the earnings call guidance, they said that 787 production would not exceed 5 per month, and that would not be until later in the year. So they may wind up in the realm of 40 to 50 new aircraft, with 30 to 40 coming out of inventory.

But production is still tied to supply chain issues, so it will continue to be bumpy. They mentioned that if production has to pause, they transfer people to rework activities, as there is no shortage of work.

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stoc ... -42812015/

Supply chain issues apply to both new and aircraft for which rework is done. Having said that, your ratio of new to reworked aircraft for delivery in 2023 seems off. I'm thinking at minimum it will be a 1 : 2 ratio meaning something like 25 new to 50 reworked aircraft delivered in 2023. remember Boeing said it would deliver all of the stored 787s by 2024 so it is likely that at least 50% of the 93 will be delivered in 2023.

flyaa757 · Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:58 am

edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MSN 38470 LN 1092 787-9 CC-BGR ferried VCV-CHS
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/cc-bgr

Frankly, the rate at which they are pulling 787s out of storage is puzzling. So, isn't this like 34 out of 93 that Boeing pulled out of storage. But, deliveries are not at the same high rate at which aircraft are being pulled out. Something doesn't add up. Hope someone can figure it out.

Manufacturing is the combination of labor and materials. Id guess the strategy is to simply get as much work done as possible. They may have 34 of part x and 0 of part Y. Labor is a finite resource, once you walk past an unutilized hour of production, it is gone forever. Better to install the 34 part xs you have when you have labor to do so than to have the labor sitting without work.

Avatar2go · Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:42 am

edealinfo wrote:
Supply chain issues apply to both new and aircraft for which rework is done. Having said that, your ratio of new to reworked aircraft for delivery in 2023 seems off. I'm thinking at minimum it will be a 1 : 2 ratio meaning something like 25 new to 50 reworked aircraft delivered in 2023. remember Boeing said it would deliver all of the stored 787s by 2024 so it is likely that at least 50% of the 93 will be delivered in 2023.

That flies in the face of the guidance Boeing gave, but whatever, you can believe what you wish. The Boeing guidance for 2022 was about 30 jets, and they hit that on the nose.

There is no statement that 50% of the rework jets will be delivered in 2023, that is your assumption. More likely that 50% will be remediated.

The clearance of inventory by 2024 was for the rework jets, not those going into inventory from current production. There will still be inventory at the end of 2024, just not necessarily rework.

edealinfo · Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:05 am

Avatar2go wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Supply chain issues apply to both new and aircraft for which rework is done. Having said that, your ratio of new to reworked aircraft for delivery in 2023 seems off. I'm thinking at minimum it will be a 1 : 2 ratio meaning something like 25 new to 50 reworked aircraft delivered in 2023. remember Boeing said it would deliver all of the stored 787s by 2024 so it is likely that at least 50% of the 93 will be delivered in 2023.

That flies in the face of the guidance Boeing gave, but whatever, you can believe what you wish. The Boeing guidance for 2022 was about 30 jets, and they hit that on the nose.

There is no statement that 50% of the rework jets will be delivered in 2023, that is your assumption. More likely that 50% will be remediated.

The clearance of inventory by 2024 was for the rework jets, not those going into inventory from current production. There will still be inventory at the end of 2024, just not necessarily rework.

Boeing is barely completing 2 787s a month. Let me be generous and assume an average delivery of 3 brand new 787s for entire 2023. That would cover 36 aircraft out of 80 which means there would be 44 reworked delivered 787s. That's an extremely optimistic scenario for brand new new aircraft.

Avatar2go · Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:29 am

edealinfo wrote:

Boeing is barely completing 2 787s a month. Let me be generous and assume an average delivery of 3 brand new 787s for entire 2023. That would cover 36 aircraft out of 80 which means there would be 44 reworked delivered 787s. That's an extremely optimistic scenario for brand new new aircraft.

Again that is the guidance, which may or may not occur, but is based on more than just your opinion. Since Boeing hit the number for 2022, I'll wait to see how close they come for 2023.

scbriml · Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:54 pm

edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MSN 38470 LN 1092 787-9 CC-BGR ferried VCV-CHS
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/cc-bgr

Frankly, the rate at which they are pulling 787s out of storage is puzzling. So, isn't this like 34 out of 93 that Boeing pulled out of storage. But, deliveries are not at the same high rate at which aircraft are being pulled out. Something doesn't add up. Hope someone can figure it out.

What doesn't add up? Moving planes from a 3rd-party storage facility to a Boeing-owned site where there's sufficient space (and the rework will be done) will be saving Boeing money.

edealinfo · Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:42 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Boeing is barely completing 2 787s a month. Let me be generous and assume an average delivery of 3 brand new 787s for entire 2023. That would cover 36 aircraft out of 80 which means there would be 44 reworked delivered 787s. That's an extremely optimistic scenario for brand new new aircraft.

Again that is the guidance, which may or may not occur, but is based on more than just your opinion. Since Boeing hit the number for 2022, I'll wait to see how close they come for 2023.

For your information, 31 787s were delivered between August to December 2022. Of these, only 10 were new (meaning after Line 1127) and 21 were "reworked" 787s. That puts the ratio of new to reworked aircraft at 1 : 2.
Simple math indicates that the new aircraft delivery rate was only 2 a month.

So, what are you now saying is Boeing's guidance of the new to reworked aircraft delivered aircraft for the 80 target they have for 2023?

scbriml wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
TK773ER wrote:
MSN 38470 LN 1092 787-9 CC-BGR ferried VCV-CHS
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/cc-bgr

Frankly, the rate at which they are pulling 787s out of storage is puzzling. So, isn't this like 34 out of 93 that Boeing pulled out of storage. But, deliveries are not at the same high rate at which aircraft are being pulled out. Something doesn't add up. Hope someone can figure it out.

What doesn't add up? Moving planes from a 3rd-party storage facility to a Boeing-owned site where there's sufficient space (and the rework will be done) will be saving Boeing money.

I am saying that far too many aircraft are being pulled out of storage for rework to support Avatar2go's theory (see above) that the ratio of new to reworked delivered aircraft would materially change in favor of new aircraft.

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