Flair Airlines News and Discussion - 2023

jimbo737 · Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:18 pm

Given the rarity of lessors seizing aircraft in Canada due to financial duress of the lessee, it’s only a matter of time before the CTA undertakes a targeted investigation.

They’ll want to know what other bills are being delayed, what services may or may not be impacted and if there’s any question of safety being compromised due to ongoing cash short falls.

https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/inspections-i ... -penalties

DLASFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:55 pm

Reminder if you are booking on an airline at risk of collapse like Flair, pay with a credit card not too far in advance. That’s the only way to get your money back if they file bankruptcy. Or better yet, book elsewhere.

CrewBunk · Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:15 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
Reminder if you are booking on an airline at risk of collapse like Flair, pay with a credit card not too far in advance. That’s the only way to get your money back if they file bankruptcy. Or better yet, book elsewhere.

I’m guessing most of us aviation geeks are in the same boat. We all have friends asking us on whom it’s safe to book, fearing being stranded. I tell them that realistically I’d stick to Westjet (including Encore) and Air Canada (including Jazz).

With the collapse (then rescue) of SVB, I’d figure creditors are a little twitchy right now. If Flair lasts a week, then I’ll be more optimistic. It means they have solved this “blip” and headed into a profitable season. (Hopefully with a bit more discipline against this quick expansion).

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:11 pm

Flair is on life support this week, if they are able to come out the other side amid all of this, they really are a cat with 9 lives.

VonRichtofen · Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:12 pm

IF this really is just lessors trying to get out of lease agreements with low pandemic lease rates so they can lease those tails to other airlines at higher rates as some have suggested, then it still looks bad on Flair considering they were in arrears on already lower than market rate leases.

diverted · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:05 pm

Didn’t see these posted. C-FLKD at CYKF blocked in with snow removal equipment
https://m.facebook.com/100063807591663/photos/625252752944972/

Juju2004 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:06 pm

They're chartering OWG planes to cover ops.

whywhyzee · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:09 pm

Chartering extra lift from OWG, that can only be ludicrously expensive. I want them to succeed and always have, I think the LCCs are a great way to get Canadians flying and it benefits many smaller communities in this country that would normally get passed over. But subcontracting ops is expensive and they evidently don't have the capital to support that kind of work.

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:10 pm

Juju2004 wrote:
They're chartering OWG planes to cover ops.

I wonder where they are getting these funds from. Maybe they do have some extra cash on hand...

Watch this just be a massive accounting issue like what happened with Flair and KF aero a few years ago

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:15 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
Chartering extra lift from OWG, that can only be ludicrously expensive. I want them to succeed and always have, I think the LCCs are a great way to get Canadians flying and it benefits many smaller communities in this country that would normally get passed over. But subcontracting ops is expensive and they evidently don't have the capital to support that kind of work.

Its okay, they have an 80% load factor on todays YXU-TUS run; that'll definitely cover the cost /s

YEGFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:23 pm

So far, they're pulling it off. A few delays most flights operating normally it looks like.

I've said it before don't write them off.

Whiteguy · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:43 pm

Heard 3 more planes seized by NavCan, can’t confirm it though….

cylw · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:44 pm

I hope OWG asked for payment up front.

TexasAirCorp · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:44 pm

Whiteguy wrote:
Heard 3 more planes seized by NavCan, can’t confirm it though….

If true, that’s the final nail in the coffin. Once NavCan are against you, you’re done.

davidjohnson6 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:57 pm

If NavCan are pursuing Flair... the decision will likely have been taken at a senior political level (think Alghabra as a minimum), not just by a NavCan employee

Juju2004 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:59 pm

The article about navcan is a sketchy website with no sources tho.

Royalairlines · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:04 pm

I picture crates of champagne at Lynx headquarters ready and waiting

TexasAirCorp · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:08 pm

Keep an eye on FLQO (on ground at YYZ), FLQZ (on ground at YXU) and FLUT (on ground at YWG). They’re the only aircraft that Flair/777 own outright, hence I think I’m right in saying the only aircraft that someone who isn’t a lessor could seize?

FLUJ is also owned, however is currently on its way to YYZ

davidjohnson6 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:09 pm

If there is champagne at Lynx HQ... it will be in a room to which only the most trusted will have access. The optics of Lynx toasting Flair's demise would look terrible if a photo ever reached the press

jimbo737 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:12 pm

OWG have 4 30 year old, fuel sucking 737-400's with 158 seats. Horrible economics, even if they are fully owned and depreciated. After Nolinor takes their margin, in a notoriously low margin business, you can be sure that all the flying on behalf of Flair is draining their coffers even further.

The next thing you'll see will be a huge seat sale for travel in the summer and fall, the purpose of which is to raise cash today to deal with current bills.

A friend told me his daughter was looking at $1,100 for her family of four to fly YVR-PVR next year. I suggested that would be just about the dumbest thing her daughter could do, unless she was interested in underwriting Flair's payroll prior to their collapse.

drgmobile · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:17 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
If NavCan are pursuing Flair... the decision will likely have been taken at a senior political level (think Alghabra as a minimum), not just by a NavCan employee

Why would you say that? NavCanada is completely separate from government.

Whiteguy · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:26 pm

Juju2004 wrote:
The article about navcan is a sketchy website with no sources tho.

Yeah, the link I saw doesn’t work anymore either. Seemed fishy…

davidjohnson6 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:31 pm

drgmobile wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
If NavCan are pursuing Flair... the decision will likely have been taken at a senior political level (think Alghabra as a minimum), not just by a NavCan employee

Why would you say that? NavCanada is completely separate from government.

If NavCan pushes a non-trivial Canadian airline into bankruptcy, there will be an immediate political reaction - it's too easy a way for politicians to score points. NavCan will not want their status to be questioned in a political way without knowing that there will be political backing.
For all the pretense of independence... there are always limits as to what can be achieved politically

Acey · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:31 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
So far, they're pulling it off.

If you are one of many who have had their March Break obliterated by F8 rebooking you for 10 days after your scheduled flight, you might say otherwise. The real determination of whether or not they're "pulling it off" is not your observation of flight delays, it's whether or not F8 has money to pay for their airplanes moving forward... a determination you nor I can make at this stage.

YEGFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:33 pm

drgmobile wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
If NavCan are pursuing Flair... the decision will likely have been taken at a senior political level (think Alghabra as a minimum), not just by a NavCan employee

Why would you say that? NavCanada is completely separate from government.

The article has been removed in any event. Looks like someone in India was reposting stuff they see in Canadian news, not a legitimate news source

YEGFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:33 pm

Acey wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
So far, they're pulling it off.

Rebooking people for 10 days after their scheduled flight is not pulling it off. The determination of whether or not they're "pulling it off" is not your observation of flight delays, it's whether or not they have money to pay for their airplanes moving forward... a determination you nor I can make at this stage.

Most flights are operating today that's what I meant.

YEGFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:36 pm

jimbo737 wrote:

A friend told me his daughter was looking at $1,100 for her family of four to fly YVR-PVR next year. I suggested that would be just about the dumbest thing her daughter could do, unless she was interested in underwriting Flair's payroll prior to their collapse.

Actually that might just be the smartest thing Canadians could do. Everyone in a smaller city, everyone in the middle class, really needs Flair to pull through this. If enough people pulled together and bought tickets right now it would put these issues to rest.

Acey · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:41 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Actually that might just be the smartest thing Canadians could do. Everyone in a smaller city, everyone in the middle class, really needs Flair to pull through this. If enough people pulled together and bought tickets right now it would put these issues to rest.

The exact sequence of events leading up to the downfall of Jetsgo has been posted multiple times in this thread. Knowing that sequence of events, it's mind-blowing that you could make a statement like this.

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:44 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:

Actually that might just be the smartest thing Canadians could do. Everyone in a smaller city, everyone in the middle class, really needs Flair to pull through this. If enough people pulled together and bought tickets right now it would put these issues to rest.

I get the logic, but then they'll be in the same situation as now. When you pay for your ticket, odds are flair utilizes those funds to pay for next weeks fuel and labor.

Again, according to CTV, it was only a small amount that was owed to the leasors. It would be helpful to get insight on the entire story so that better conclusions can be drawn, but it wont happen since flair is private.

If the government actually cared about competition in this country (ICYMI, they don't), they would be talking to flair on how to navigate this and may give them a small loan, like they did with all the other carriers during the pandemic.

TexasAirCorp · Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:57 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
Keep an eye on FLQO (on ground at YYZ), FLQZ (on ground at YXU) and FLUT (on ground at YWG). They’re the only aircraft that Flair/777 own outright, hence I think I’m right in saying the only aircraft that someone who isn’t a lessor could seize?

FLUJ is also owned, however is currently on its way to YYZ

FLQO and FLUT are now airborne. May be just a baseless rumor after all.

fraT · Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:14 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:

A friend told me his daughter was looking at $1,100 for her family of four to fly YVR-PVR next year. I suggested that would be just about the dumbest thing her daughter could do, unless she was interested in underwriting Flair's payroll prior to their collapse.

Actually that might just be the smartest thing Canadians could do. Everyone in a smaller city, everyone in the middle class, really needs Flair to pull through this. If enough people pulled together and bought tickets right now it would put these issues to rest.

... and then loose their money altogether?
Come on, everybody knows that this was just the latest nail in the coffin. A lot of people saw it coming.
I am sorry, if you are personally affected by a potential bankruptcy, but their strategy was not viable at all.

Dominion301 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:14 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
OWG have 4 30 year old, fuel sucking 737-400's with 158 seats. Horrible economics, even if they are fully owned and depreciated. After Nolinor takes their margin, in a notoriously low margin business, you can be sure that all the flying on behalf of Flair is draining their coffers even further.

The next thing you'll see will be a huge seat sale for travel in the summer and fall, the purpose of which is to raise cash today to deal with current bills.

A friend told me his daughter was looking at $1,100 for her family of four to fly YVR-PVR next year. I suggested that would be just about the dumbest thing her daughter could do, unless she was interested in underwriting Flair's payroll prior to their collapse.

OWG also have a single 189 seat 738 with identical capacity to Flair’s needs.

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:29 pm

All this negative gloom and doom, see you guys in a few months when flair has full loads and exceeding expectations.
This cat has 9 lives baby.

Juju2004 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:39 pm

Honestly, loads are really not that bad right now either...

multimark · Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:45 pm

JakeLRS wrote:
Flair is on life support this week, if they are able to come out the other side amid all of this, they really are a cat with 9 lives.

The real question is: should they come out the other side?

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:51 pm

NEW: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstor ... 2d65&ei=17

Highlights:
"Jones acknowledged the company was in arrears by about $1 million, but said that “wasn’t a big amount,” considering it was equivalent to the value of sales Flair typically makes in a half day."

"Jones said the company is “100 per cent caught up” on payments now"

According to Jones, Flair makes about $2 million in a day (before finances). If this is the case, they shouldn't have been late on payments. They better figure out how to regain customer trust. They just started having good brand awareness.

“Flair is here to stay,” Jones said.

(Edit: Added the below)
NEW https://globalnews.ca/news/9548294/flai ... globalnews

Flair is accusing another National carrier for trying to overtake flairs aircraft by offering above market rates... probably westjet.

It seems Jones is doubtful they will be able to retrieve the four lost aircraft.

Jones seems to acknowledge there have been some late payments before.

I'm trying to find out where I can watch this press release.

TexasAirCorp · Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:24 pm

JakeLRS wrote:
NEW: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstor ... 2d65&ei=17

Highlights:
"Jones acknowledged the company was in arrears by about $1 million, but said that “wasn’t a big amount,” considering it was equivalent to the value of sales Flair typically makes in a half day."

"Jones said the company is “100 per cent caught up” on payments now"

According to Jones, Flair makes about $2 million in a day (before finances). If this is the case, they shouldn't have been late on payments. They better figure out how to regain customer trust. They just started having good brand awareness.

“Flair is here to stay,” Jones said.

Good on him for showing his face, but I refuse to accept this is anything but complete rubbish. If it's not a 'big amount', why wasn't it paid on time, and why are your other creditors looking for a means to exit?

I don't know his exact numbers, however if he's making approx $60 million a month, and paying roughly about $6 million a month in leases, he's then got $54 million to play with. I'm just making an assumption here, but $54 million doesn't sound like much to operate an airline with 22 planes, especially with high fuel prices and a very competitive labour market. Either he's pulling out a miracle, or he's borrowing loads if he's keeping Flair solvent, especially considering he wants 50 planes in two years. He's already had to renegotiate most of his leases for this month.

Flair is not 'here to stay' and he knows it. If he makes it through the next week, well done to him, however it's now clear he's in some sort of financial trouble, and the cost of compensating stranded travellers and leasing additional capacity sure won't help that. If 777 won't chuck in another $1 million especially considering his sales are apparently so spectacular, who else will?

The inevitable is approaching, whether its tomorrow, next week, or next month, and the travelling public shouldn't be trying to prop him up. His only hope is that his remaining creditors remain lenient. I get he's got to try and put a positive spin on things if he has a chance of keeping his job, however I'd like to see what his creditors make of his bullish statements on his financial position.

TexasAirCorp · Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:30 pm

JakeLRS wrote:
Flair is accusing another National carrier for trying to overtake flairs aircraft by offering above market rates... probably westjet.

He seems to be trying to pull a Sir Freddie Laker style exit and trying to argue it's everyone else's fault that he's not generating enough cash to cover his costs. The difference is Sir Freddie had somewhat of a point, Mr Jones doesn't.

If he's repeatedly not paying his bills on time, what does he expect? You can't blame the lessor for looking for a client who might give them some revenue.

yzfElite · Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:38 pm

Juju2004 wrote:
Honestly, loads are really not that bad right now either...

That’s perhaps a problem though…they now need to fly all those people who paid in December-January and that money is long gone without summer fares coming in yet and the news this weekend surely can’t help their sales.

CrewBunk · Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:38 pm

Juju2004 wrote:
Honestly, loads are really not that bad right now either...

These flights would have been booked months ago. And right now ….. everyone is full.

The big problem is future bookings and people being spooked enough to avoid Flair.

YEGFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:43 pm

JakeLRS wrote:
NEW: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstor ... 2d65&ei=17

Highlights:
"Jones acknowledged the company was in arrears by about $1 million, but said that “wasn’t a big amount,” considering it was equivalent to the value of sales Flair typically makes in a half day."

"Jones said the company is “100 per cent caught up” on payments now"

According to Jones, Flair makes about $2 million in a day (before finances). If this is the case, they shouldn't have been late on payments. They better figure out how to regain customer trust. They just started having good brand awareness.

“Flair is here to stay,” Jones said.

(Edit: Added the below)
NEW https://globalnews.ca/news/9548294/flai ... globalnews

Flair is accusing another National carrier for trying to overtake flairs aircraft by offering above market rates... probably westjet.

It seems Jones is doubtful they will be able to retrieve the four lost aircraft.

Jones seems to acknowledge there have been some late payments before.

I'm trying to find out where I can watch this press release.

Yeah, the timing of this whole thing was off. It doesn't make sense that in mid March Flair would be running out of cash. Maybe January, but not right now. It makes sense that the company is now actually flush with cash, it's spring break and summer bookings are already rolling in. Looks like the lessor took advantage of some kind of processing error to make more money on their assets.

And everyone on here was going on about this being "the end"

Shameful!!

TexasAirCorp · Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:03 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Yeah, the timing of this whole thing was off. It doesn't make sense that in mid March Flair would be running out of cash. Maybe January, but not right now. It makes sense that the company is now actually flush with cash, it's spring break and summer bookings are already rolling in. Looks like the lessor took advantage of some kind of processing error to make more money on their assets.

Jones himself has admitted it was not a 'processing error', Flair has been continually late making lease payments due to a lack of cash. He requested a week extension from both BOC and Airborne to make payment, BOC accept and Airborne didn't. Flair is quite clearly not flush with cash, it wouldn't be asking for reprieves on debts if it was. If you're leasing a property and you have perfect payment history, and somehow your payment for this month doesn't go through, the landlord won't immediately evict you.

JetsGo went bust in mid March. It's not uncommon for ailing airlines to request creditors hold off lease payments until the end of the slow winter season. Jones has admitted he's had a 'tough winter' and has had to 'watch cash closely'. Clearly his hope that his lines of credit will keep going until March hasn't come true.

Just because it's spring break right now, that's no guarantee Flair has sufficient revenue coming in as the vast majority of his passengers will have already booked their tickets over winter. If he was unable to reap in enough cash during the Spring sales season, there's nothing saying he's definitely making money now, and that seems to be supported by the fact he's already trying to target winter bookings. I can't say how Flair's summer bookings are doing (and nor can you), however I doubt they're being helped by the fact most Canadian news channels are throwing around the headline 'Flair Airlines in financial crisis'.

When only 4 of your planes have been impounded, it's not impossible to continue operations on your last few dollars, many airlines (Jet Airways, SkyEurope etc) have done so. The question is whether or not Flair's limited cash can stretch to cover the negative shocks imposed by having to lease in additional capacity, and whether or not its other creditors will still be willing to continue heading to the negotiating table. Once other creditors move in the same direction as Airborne, Flair is finished, and I'd be very surprised if this is not the case seeing as all but 1 of its lessors are trying to remarket their aircraft. If 777 is unwilling to lend it $1 million to pay off a bill, I'd be surprised if it's willing to considering handing over any more cash, and I doubt any new investors will.

ac7e7 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:09 pm

Jones is already throwing out the excuses - the big guys are out to get us! Give me a break. Pay your bills. I'd be very surprised if this airline survives into the summer without an infusion of capital.

I have said it time and time again, and always get roasted on these forums... Canada is a small market, and can only handle 1.5 major carriers profitably. Even Westjet learned (again) that they can't compete effectively with AC's business product/level of service for frequent flyers (before everyone gets triggered, I am SE100K at AC and Gold, but soon to be Platinum at Westjet. I know these airlines' products/services very well. One is better for business travelers... but I love the Westjet lounge in Calgary). Westjet is re-focusing on the west which is the right move. What does Flair offer that Westjet doesn't?

Except for a couple of tour operators (Air Transat, and Sunwing which was recently gobbled up by Westjet), the rest are small airlines chasing the scraps (low margin travelers who don't travel often) and most don't survive.

JakeLRS · Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:21 pm

Flair is launching a St. Patrick's sale tomorrow and runs till Thursday.

35% off all base fares, all routes. Travel March 14-May 31, 2022.

Promo Code: Spring23

Just to rule out that this isn't an abnormal cash grab, Flair's previous promos this year were:
January: 75% New Years sale
February: Mexico 35% off, 75% off
March: 20% off

CrewBunk · Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:43 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Looks like the lessor took advantage of some kind of processing error to make more money on their assets.

And everyone on here was going on about this being "the end"

Shameful!!

It appears that Flair was very shrewd a couple of years ago when Max shopping. As a result they are paying well below market lease rates today. That being the case, and knowing how lessors work, I would have thought they’d be prudent about not doing anything that would give a lessor legal cause to seize aircraft.

Namely, if they were truly “flush” with cash, they’d be paying their bills.

Is this “the end” or is it “shameful”?

A couple points; A lot of us have been in this industry a long time. We’ve seen this script before. Same timeline, same excuses, same end. Also, the elephant in the room, most of us aren’t saying what’s on our minds knowing that the outside press often uses this (and other) fora for information.

BASE10 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:01 pm

I wish them nothing but the best and hope they can overcome what will be a very difficult time no matter how you slice it, public confidence has been shaken and forward bookings will be a huge challenge. If they can move past this news cycle without any further bad negative press then they will have a shot.

Changeup2000 · Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:48 pm

I will be very sad to see F8 gone ... it saved me a few weeks back when YVR was at snowstorm and AC cancelled all flights to YYC. I grabbed a F8 ticket from YXX to get to YYC that day. And YXX will be dealt a huge blow without F8. I hope AC or PD can operate a flight or two to YXX.

whywhyzee · Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:16 pm

The way I see it, even if they survive through the summer, they are burning the tables and chairs to keep the house warm now, they won't have anything left for next winter. They will need to massively cut costs and consolidate flying to only the highest revenue generating routes. Selling seats now for cheap borrows cash from tomorrow for today, like a payday loan. Good luck digging out of that hole. A Strategic and tactful shrink over the next 6 months *could* be enough to keep them alive, they shouldn't have any problems moving frames to other carriers.

Rumour has it 3 frames will be going to Sunwing, that would definitely help with the elimination of costs. I know they struggle to crew the fleet as it is so that eliminates another problem. Only issue this presents is how do they re-accomodate passengers without getting hosed on APPR fines.

Aresxerexade · Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:13 am

ac7e7 wrote:
Jones is already throwing out the excuses - the big guys are out to get us! Give me a break. Pay your bills. I'd be very surprised if this airline survives into the summer without an infusion of capital.

I have said it time and time again, and always get roasted on these forums... Canada is a small market, and can only handle 1.5 major carriers profitably. Even Westjet learned (again) that they can't compete effectively with AC's business product/level of service for frequent flyers (before everyone gets triggered, I am SE100K at AC and Gold, but soon to be Platinum at Westjet. I know these airlines' products/services very well. One is better for business travelers... but I love the Westjet lounge in Calgary). Westjet is re-focusing on the west which is the right move. What does Flair offer that Westjet doesn't?

Except for a couple of tour operators (Air Transat, and Sunwing which was recently gobbled up by Westjet), the rest are small airlines chasing the scraps (low margin travelers who don't travel often) and most don't survive.

For Jones to misdirect and not answer directly whether other payments have been overdue in the past six months and response instead with "There's no business, really, that doesn't have some delays." Shows he’s no better than a used car salesman. That doesn’t give me confidence.

IceCream · Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:41 am

YEGFlyer wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:

A friend told me his daughter was looking at $1,100 for her family of four to fly YVR-PVR next year. I suggested that would be just about the dumbest thing her daughter could do, unless she was interested in underwriting Flair's payroll prior to their collapse.

Actually that might just be the smartest thing Canadians could do. Everyone in a smaller city, everyone in the middle class, really needs Flair to pull through this. If enough people pulled together and bought tickets right now it would put these issues to rest.

Well it’s not the people’s responsibility to put their hard earned money at risk to try and pull Flair out because they launched moronic routes like YXS-TUS??

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