Welcome to the Flair Airlines News and Discussion Thread - 2023 edition. Please continue to post your comments below

Link to last thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468479

What’s interesting is that an Onex subsidiary bought these NTU frames, but their airlines don’t want them either. WS makes sense as it would cost a lot to reconfigure them. WO though has an identical 189Y config.

I guess they’ll be resale unless the WG takeover goes through and they could wind up there.

Dominion301 wrote:

What’s interesting is that an Onex subsidiary bought these NTU frames, but their airlines don’t want them either. WS makes sense as it would cost a lot to reconfigure them. WO though has an identical 189Y config.

I guess they’ll be resale unless the WG takeover goes through and they could wind up there.

I don't foresee WO getting any more planes based on some of the recent cutbacks. 16 planes is enough to be a nuisance to F8 and others.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.6700799

Mounties investigating threat onboard Flair Airlines plane at Vancouver International Airport
RCMP say they are investigating after a passenger on a Flair Airlines flight bound for Vancouver Friday night reported a "possible threat."

Richmond RCMP — the detachment with jurisdiction over Vancouver International Airport (YVR) — said in a statement Saturday that a passenger on Flight 2799 from Edmonton received a threatening message on their phone and immediately informed authorities.

A YVR spokesperson said in a statement that the plane, which arrived at 11:44 p.m. PST on Friday, remained on the taxiway until 1 a.m. Saturday while Mounties investigated. Police then cleared the plane to proceed to its gate. Passengers were not allowed to leave the plane until 2:15 a.m.

Happy 2023!

What I'm reading here is that Flair's current published summer schedule might be more final than originally thought. Still lots of expansion from last summer but less than what might have been.

While everyone is screaming about overcapacity, that might be the case on a very few select routes, but with AC and WS keeping capacity under prepandemic levels, and Flair expanding less than initially thought, capacity might be tighter than everyone's expecting. Demand is still expected to be hot. Might be a good time to book those tickets now before prices go through the roof.

YEGFlyer wrote:

Happy 2023!

What I'm reading here is that Flair's current published summer schedule might be more final than originally thought. Still lots of expansion from last summer but less than what might have been.

While everyone is screaming about overcapacity, that might be the case on a very few select routes, but with AC and WS keeping capacity under prepandemic levels, and Flair expanding less than initially thought, capacity might be tighter than everyone's expecting. Demand is still expected to be hot. Might be a good time to book those tickets now before prices go through the roof.

Summer is always a busy time for airlines, but I believe the globe article indicates Air Canada S23 capacity is on par with, not under, pre pandemic levels. WS barely touched the summer schedule at all and their schedule won't be released until later this month, like it is most years. So capacity really isn't that tight.

Although it's good to see the trunk routes at higher frequencies and makes F8 a more attractive option for some customers.

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Happy 2023!

What I'm reading here is that Flair's current published summer schedule might be more final than originally thought. Still lots of expansion from last summer but less than what might have been.

While everyone is screaming about overcapacity, that might be the case on a very few select routes, but with AC and WS keeping capacity under prepandemic levels, and Flair expanding less than initially thought, capacity might be tighter than everyone's expecting. Demand is still expected to be hot. Might be a good time to book those tickets now before prices go through the roof.

Summer is always a busy time for airlines, but I believe the globe article indicates Air Canada S23 capacity is on par with, not under, pre pandemic levels. WS barely touched the summer schedule at all and their schedule won't be released until later this month, like it is most years. So capacity really isn't that tight.

Although it's good to see the trunk routes at higher frequencies and makes F8 a more attractive option for some customers.

It doesn’t seem like it’s on par vs summer 2019 when you look across the network. YUL seems like the only station that will exceed 2019…without doing actual counting. However, a lot of medium/large stations are down quite significantly from 2019 with YYC & YOW at the top of that list, but also the likes of YYT, YQR, YXE, YYJ. I doubt either of YYZ or YVR are back at 2019 levels with a fraction of the China traffic and a lot less domestic regional capacity at YYZ. I’d hazard a guess that they’ll be at 90% of S19 in S23.

Dominion301 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Happy 2023!

What I'm reading here is that Flair's current published summer schedule might be more final than originally thought. Still lots of expansion from last summer but less than what might have been.

While everyone is screaming about overcapacity, that might be the case on a very few select routes, but with AC and WS keeping capacity under prepandemic levels, and Flair expanding less than initially thought, capacity might be tighter than everyone's expecting. Demand is still expected to be hot. Might be a good time to book those tickets now before prices go through the roof.

Summer is always a busy time for airlines, but I believe the globe article indicates Air Canada S23 capacity is on par with, not under, pre pandemic levels. WS barely touched the summer schedule at all and their schedule won't be released until later this month, like it is most years. So capacity really isn't that tight.

Although it's good to see the trunk routes at higher frequencies and makes F8 a more attractive option for some customers.

It doesn’t seem like it’s on par vs summer 2019 when you look across the network. YUL seems like the only station that will exceed 2019…without doing actual counting. However, a lot of medium/large stations are down quite significantly from 2019 with YYC & YOW at the top of that list, but also the likes of YYT, YQR, YXE, YYJ. I doubt either of YYZ or YVR are back at 2019 levels with a fraction of the China traffic and a lot less domestic regional capacity at YYZ. I’d hazard a guess that they’ll be at 90% of S19 in S23.

Yup and WS significantly down in overall (network-wide) capacity compared to 2019.

PD and F8 might fill in some of the gap, but it is going to be overall a tight summer.

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

On an overall basis, it looks like summer capacity will be tight in Canada.

YEGFlyer wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

Summer is always a busy time for airlines, but I believe the globe article indicates Air Canada S23 capacity is on par with, not under, pre pandemic levels. WS barely touched the summer schedule at all and their schedule won't be released until later this month, like it is most years. So capacity really isn't that tight.

Although it's good to see the trunk routes at higher frequencies and makes F8 a more attractive option for some customers.

It doesn’t seem like it’s on par vs summer 2019 when you look across the network. YUL seems like the only station that will exceed 2019…without doing actual counting. However, a lot of medium/large stations are down quite significantly from 2019 with YYC & YOW at the top of that list, but also the likes of YYT, YQR, YXE, YYJ. I doubt either of YYZ or YVR are back at 2019 levels with a fraction of the China traffic and a lot less domestic regional capacity at YYZ. I’d hazard a guess that they’ll be at 90% of S19 in S23.

Yup and WS significantly down in overall (network-wide) capacity compared to 2019.

PD and F8 might fill in some of the gap, but it is going to be overall a tight summer.

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

On an overall basis, it looks like summer capacity will be tight in Canada.

Most of the YYC/YOW routes cut are mostly regional ones anyways. As for WS they haven't touched their schedule for next summer yet, I can 100% guarantee you there will be major changes this month, just like WS had indicated with their 787 news release. They never properly update their schedules for the summer until late January, pretty much every single year except covid years. Based on capacity at YVR/YYZ/YYC/YEG/YUL on trunk routes I don't think capacity is tight at all.

YEGFlyer wrote:

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

YXU-YHZ and YXU-YVR

A pretty sizeable increase at YYC is planned for next summer. Between 14-15 daily departures so far. (3x daily YYZ, 3x daily YVR, 3x daily YXX, 1x daily YKF/YUL/YYJ/YLW/YXE, 3-5x weekly YOW and 2x weekly YWG) For some reason, YYC-YWG seems to be a difficult route for both F8 and Y9 to make work.

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

It doesn’t seem like it’s on par vs summer 2019 when you look across the network. YUL seems like the only station that will exceed 2019…without doing actual counting. However, a lot of medium/large stations are down quite significantly from 2019 with YYC & YOW at the top of that list, but also the likes of YYT, YQR, YXE, YYJ. I doubt either of YYZ or YVR are back at 2019 levels with a fraction of the China traffic and a lot less domestic regional capacity at YYZ. I’d hazard a guess that they’ll be at 90% of S19 in S23.

Yup and WS significantly down in overall (network-wide) capacity compared to 2019.

PD and F8 might fill in some of the gap, but it is going to be overall a tight summer.

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

On an overall basis, it looks like summer capacity will be tight in Canada.

Most of the YYC/YOW routes cut are mostly regional ones anyways. As for WS they haven't touched their schedule for next summer yet, I can 100% guarantee you there will be major changes this month, just like WS had indicated with their 787 news release. They never properly update their schedules for the summer until late January, pretty much every single year except covid years. Based on capacity at YVR/YYZ/YYC/YEG/YUL on trunk routes I don't think capacity is tight at all.

I suspect that even after capacity changes, WS will be down compared to 2019. They've lost too much in Central and Eastern Canada so it skews the net total flights.

Porter might be the wildcard because I think there are still more announcements to come from them.

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

Juju2004 wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

YXU-YHZ and YXU-YVR

Thank you.

YEGFlyer wrote:

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Yup and WS significantly down in overall (network-wide) capacity compared to 2019.

PD and F8 might fill in some of the gap, but it is going to be overall a tight summer.

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

On an overall basis, it looks like summer capacity will be tight in Canada.

Most of the YYC/YOW routes cut are mostly regional ones anyways. As for WS they haven't touched their schedule for next summer yet, I can 100% guarantee you there will be major changes this month, just like WS had indicated with their 787 news release. They never properly update their schedules for the summer until late January, pretty much every single year except covid years. Based on capacity at YVR/YYZ/YYC/YEG/YUL on trunk routes I don't think capacity is tight at all.

I suspect that even after capacity changes, WS will be down compared to 2019. They've lost too much in Central and Eastern Canada so it skews the net total flights.

Porter might be the wildcard because I think there are still more announcements to come from them.

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

Could be, but the WS CEO did an interview with the Calgary Herald I believe, and indicated that based on current plans they'll be back to pre pandemic capacity overall by Q2 or Q3 next year, including cuts out east.

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

IceCream wrote:

Most of the YYC/YOW routes cut are mostly regional ones anyways. As for WS they haven't touched their schedule for next summer yet, I can 100% guarantee you there will be major changes this month, just like WS had indicated with their 787 news release. They never properly update their schedules for the summer until late January, pretty much every single year except covid years. Based on capacity at YVR/YYZ/YYC/YEG/YUL on trunk routes I don't think capacity is tight at all.

I suspect that even after capacity changes, WS will be down compared to 2019. They've lost too much in Central and Eastern Canada so it skews the net total flights.

Porter might be the wildcard because I think there are still more announcements to come from them.

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

Could be, but the WS CEO did an interview with the Calgary Herald I believe, and indicated that based on current plans they'll be back to pre pandemic capacity overall by Q2 or Q3 next year, including cuts out east.

Next year, you mean 2024 then? So S23 will be tight then.

Even if WS manages to get back to prepandemic S23, that's keeping things tight considering how much travel demand is pent up post pandemic.

Now it also looks like Lynx is retreating/ not growing as quickly, and you have Swoop making Alberta cuts.

YEGFlyer wrote:

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

I suspect that even after capacity changes, WS will be down compared to 2019. They've lost too much in Central and Eastern Canada so it skews the net total flights.

Porter might be the wildcard because I think there are still more announcements to come from them.

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

Could be, but the WS CEO did an interview with the Calgary Herald I believe, and indicated that based on current plans they'll be back to pre pandemic capacity overall by Q2 or Q3 next year, including cuts out east.

Next year, you mean 2024 then? So S23 will be tight then.

Even if WS manages to get back to prepandemic S23, that's keeping things tight considering how much travel demand is pent up post pandemic.

Now it also looks like Lynx is retreating/ not growing as quickly, and you have Swoop making Alberta cuts.

No I meant this year as in 2023, it's only January 3 after all I don't think travel is going to be that much higher than S22 though, and I don't really see why it would be significantly busier. And F8/Y9/PD are expanding rapidly next year as well. Some fares are as low as 40 bucks.

But with WO/a few Y9 cuts I suppose there could be less saturation

YEGFlyer wrote:

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

I suspect that even after capacity changes, WS will be down compared to 2019. They've lost too much in Central and Eastern Canada so it skews the net total flights.

Porter might be the wildcard because I think there are still more announcements to come from them.

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

Could be, but the WS CEO did an interview with the Calgary Herald I believe, and indicated that based on current plans they'll be back to pre pandemic capacity overall by Q2 or Q3 next year, including cuts out east.

Next year, you mean 2024 then? So S23 will be tight then.

Even if WS manages to get back to prepandemic S23, that's keeping things tight considering how much travel demand is pent up post pandemic.

Now it also looks like Lynx is retreating/ not growing as quickly, and you have Swoop making Alberta cuts.

Carriers are withholding seats and flights to restrain capacity and ensure airfares are profitable as the airlines try to emerge from the pandemic. Demand is going to be strong partly driven by the fact there’s going to be fewer seats around. Airlines have been really disciplined about putting excessive capacity in the market … because that means the average fares go down. It becomes harder to make a profit

IATA is predicting a return to profitability for the global airline industry in 2023 as airlines continue to cut losses stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to their business in 2022.

YEGFlyer wrote:

IceCream wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Yup and WS significantly down in overall (network-wide) capacity compared to 2019.

PD and F8 might fill in some of the gap, but it is going to be overall a tight summer.

Flair had initially said they planned to launch more routes prior to summer. So far we have the YQB routes as well as a new route out of YXE, but not much else that I can recall. We'll see if they announce more. In any event, summer 2023 will still be a significant increase over summer 2022 for Flair.

On an overall basis, it looks like summer capacity will be tight in Canada.

Most of the YYC/YOW routes cut are mostly regional ones anyways. As for WS they haven't touched their schedule for next summer yet, I can 100% guarantee you there will be major changes this month, just like WS had indicated with their 787 news release. They never properly update their schedules for the summer until late January, pretty much every single year except covid years. Based on capacity at YVR/YYZ/YYC/YEG/YUL on trunk routes I don't think capacity is tight at all.

I suspect that even after capacity changes, WS will be down compared to 2019. They've lost too much in Central and Eastern Canada so it skews the net total flights.

Porter might be the wildcard because I think there are still more announcements to come from them.

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

I would have a wait and see on YYC-YXE. That is a route that has a lot of connecting traffic in Calgary. Not clear Flair with its business model can fill a fairly large aircraft without onward connections.

YEGFlyer wrote:

Personally I'm hoping that Flair will relaunch YEG-Saskatchewan and launch YEG&YYC-Atlantic provinces. There should be strong demand for both during summer months.

By the way I think YEG/YYC-YHZ seem like markets that Flair could certainly enter. But I wonder if the length of the flights are making them hesitate launching those flights, if they think they could fit in shorter runs and make more money?

Flair back in the news for all the wrong reasons.

https://simpleflying.com/flair-airlines ... l-airport/

I don't think it's their fault... could happen to any airline as it did to Transat a few weeks ago.

jimbo737 wrote:

Flair back in the news for all the wrong reasons.

https://simpleflying.com/flair-airlines ... l-airport/

According to the article, they were sitting at the gate when a bag cart hit the plane - not quite their fault. Who is the ground handler in YKF?

C-FLKO is flying revenue flights right now. Weren't they supposed to sell it?

Juju2004 wrote:

C-FLKO is flying revenue flights right now. Weren't they supposed to sell it?

No, it's FLKS that has already exited as per multiple sources and at least one other undisclosed frame, likely one of the other three currently in Arizona.

nkops wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

Flair back in the news for all the wrong reasons.

https://simpleflying.com/flair-airlines ... l-airport/

According to the article, they were sitting at the gate when a bag cart hit the plane - not quite their fault. Who is the ground handler in YKF?

I believe Executive is the ground handler

Not Flair's fault. Sucks that their operations were affected by a ground handler

Acey wrote:

Juju2004 wrote:

C-FLKO is flying revenue flights right now. Weren't they supposed to sell it?

No, it's FLKS that has already exited as per multiple sources and at least one other undisclosed frame, likely one of the other three currently in Arizona.

It appears FLKS has been returned to lessor BOC Aviation as of 17th December. C-FLQP, an AerCap-leased ex-Smartwings B38M that Flair took delivery of on the same day FLKS left the fleet has taken the latter's space at TUS.

FLKO returning to the fleet is an interesting development since as of 12th December it had its Canadian registration removed. Seems a u-turn has been made somewhere.

Currently, Flair prices in August 2023 for Edmonton to Winnipeg are approximately $140 each way, whereas in the Spring it is more around $50 each way. Do you think the price could drop to $50 each way for August 2023 at some point? I thought that in Summer 2022 you could get a fare for that (I could be wrong) but then they had Swoop to compete with (probably unlikely for Summer 2023). For me, this could be the difference between driving or flying.

I think you guys are reading way too much into the leasing activity, as some kind of "sign" of Flair's either failure or whatever other pre-determined narrative you want to push. In terms of their fleet going forward you can take a look at their schedule for 2023 and see the aircraft required - will give you an idea of Flair's future fleet plans.

What’s the public source? Genuinely curious.

If I had a guess as to why deletions it’s that this thread has to be one of the most toxic in the Civil forum, it’s historically nothing but complaining/negativity and attacks.

jbs2886 wrote:

What’s the public source? Genuinely curious.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... nd-canada/

A leading Canadian publication.

This same source is cited on the last page of the 2022 thread.

Flair becomes official airline for Canada Basketball

https://twitter.com/CanBball/status/161 ... Xh7rrYMMdg

YEGFlyer wrote:

Flair becomes official airline for Canada Basketball

https://twitter.com/CanBball/status/161 ... Xh7rrYMMdg

That’s an odd choice

It's marketing. Good for both entities. I have to say that I've been impressed with Flair’s marketing and PR. It's ahead of much of the competition, which is notable considering that Flair is still relatively tiny.

YEGFlyer wrote:

It's marketing. Good for both entities. I have to say that I've been impressed with Flair’s marketing and PR. It's ahead of much of the competition

Source? By what metric?

Canadians don't care about our national basketball teams. WS gets far more from Flight Deck at Rogers Centre, and AC dwarfs everybody by flying all Canadian hockey teams (the sport this country cares about) and having had their name on the most well known arena in the country for over 20 years.

AlbertaLights wrote:

Currently, Flair prices in August 2023 for Edmonton to Winnipeg are approximately $140 each way, whereas in the Spring it is more around $50 each way. Do you think the price could drop to $50 each way for August 2023 at some point? I thought that in Summer 2022 you could get a fare for that (I could be wrong) but then they had Swoop to compete with (probably unlikely for Summer 2023). For me, this could be the difference between driving or flying.

Looking at different flight combinations from Edmonton, I see that the prime time July and August prices are about three times the amount of the Spring prices. I looked at Edmonton to Waterloo, Toronto and Winnipeg. Two questions. First, was this the same case in 2022? Second, is it reasonable to suggest that the Summer prices are for now just a placeholder price and could drop later on to induce demand (however, perhaps there is already enough demand even if the Summer price is three times the Spring price).

They raised prices to 100$ one way on almost every sector for summer 2022 at some point in march and it didn't drop after that. Looks like they did the same this year. Maybe you'll get a promo code but they are rare for summer.

I wonder when Flair will sort of finalize their S23 schedule if they haven't already. But next summer is already seeing sizeable increases, interesting to see most of their changes made earlier than the other airlines,

Flair’s U.S. investor, 777 Partners of Miami, recently sold five new 737 Max 8 aircraft painted in Flair colours to Babcock & Brown Aircraft Management, a company partly held by WestJet owner Onex Corp. WestJet declined to lease or buy the planes from Babcock & Brown because of the cost of refitting the planes to WestJet’s specifications, which include first-class seating sections, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Globe is not naming them because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

WestJet declined to comment. Babcock & Brown, which is marketing the jets, did not respond to a request for comment.

Babcock & Brown also purchased from 777 Partners two 737s built for Bonza Aviation, an Australian airline startup owned by the Miami investor.

Another three Flair 737s owned by 777 Partners were offered for sale but found no buyers, and the planes are parked in Arizona. Flair referred questions on the sale to 777 Partners, which did not respond to e-mails.

Onex has owned about 1/3 of BBAM since 2012

As a partial owner of Babcock and Brown, a copy of Flair’s financial statements likely crossed Onex’s desk and made its way elsewhere. To think otherwise would be naive.

777 aren’t Indigo. They paid somewhere between $40 to $45m per tail for their Max orders.

For an operator with a weak financial covenant, (ie Flair), they’d pay between 1.2 to 1.5% compared to established financial covenants at .8 to 1%.

That’s high cost iron that needs a ton of utilization to make things work compared to using much cheaper, less risky -800’s that can be parked at off peak times.

I’ll bet there’s some buyers remorse going on there, at least with respect to Flair.

jimbo737 wrote:

I’ll bet there’s some buyers remorse going on there, at least with respect to Flair.

As a casual observer, it appears to me that Flair has managed all of their financial assets brilliantly to date and the movement of these frames is part of a grand profitable plan that will materialize in the coming months.

Movement of frames source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... nd-canada/

jimbo737 wrote:

Flair’s U.S. investor, 777 Partners of Miami, recently sold five new 737 Max 8 aircraft painted in Flair colours to Babcock & Brown Aircraft Management, a company partly held by WestJet owner Onex Corp. WestJet declined to lease or buy the planes from Babcock & Brown because of the cost of refitting the planes to WestJet’s specifications, which include first-class seating sections, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Globe is not naming them because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

WestJet declined to comment. Babcock & Brown, which is marketing the jets, did not respond to a request for comment.

Babcock & Brown also purchased from 777 Partners two 737s built for Bonza Aviation, an Australian airline startup owned by the Miami investor.

Another three Flair 737s owned by 777 Partners were offered for sale but found no buyers, and the planes are parked in Arizona. Flair referred questions on the sale to 777 Partners, which did not respond to e-mails.

Onex has owned about 1/3 of BBAM since 2012

As a partial owner of Babcock and Brown, a copy of Flair’s financial statements likely crossed Onex’s desk and made its way elsewhere. To think otherwise would be naive.

777 aren’t Indigo. They paid somewhere between $40 to $45m per tail for their Max orders.

For an operator with a weak financial covenant, (ie Flair), they’d pay between 1.2 to 1.5% compared to established financial covenants at .8 to 1%.

That’s high cost iron that needs a ton of utilization to make things work compared to using much cheaper, less risky -800’s that can be parked at off peak times.

I’ll bet there’s some buyers remorse going on there, at least with respect to Flair.

There are likely more investors than 777.

Acey wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

I’ll bet there’s some buyers remorse going on there, at least with respect to Flair.

As a casual observer, it appears to me that Flair has managed all of their financial assets brilliantly to date and the movement of these frames is part of a grand profitable plan that will materialize in the coming months.

Movement of frames source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... nd-canada/

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm but an over-purchase of such an expensive asset cannot be part of a brilliant plan. There are far too many pieces of information which point to a plan which is starting to come off the rails.

Guys, these aircraft were never owned or leased by Flair.

Note that the article is very careful to say that they were painted in Flair's livery. These were carefully chosen words. This would be an issue between the leasing co and Boeing.

June LF from YEG for Flair:
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 202022.pdf

LAS 43%
BNA 28%
BUR 36%

Please note that these load factors are publicly available from the government of the United States at the URL provided.
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 202022.pdf

As per the source, UA's load factor on DEN-YEG for the given period is 90%+

Please note that UA's load factor on DEN YEG is publicly available from the government of the United States at the URL provided.

Based on the performance of other carriers in this publicly available data, a casual observer might remark that Flair is performing poorly relative to their peers in the transborder sector.

YEGFlyer wrote:

Guys, these aircraft were never owned or leased by Flair.

Note that the article is very careful to say that they were painted in Flair's livery. These were carefully chosen words. This would be an issue between the leasing co and Boeing.

I suppose, but if the planes were painted in Flair colours and they were planning to take the frames, doesn't it have to do with Flair at least somewhat??? Like using logic? The plane was configured and painted for Flair, with the intention of Flair taking the planes. Did Flair actually start leasing the planes though?

I can't seem to find LF data for YEG though

And keep in mind Flair / someone is paying in the neighborhood of us$850 per block hour for reserves covering Engines / Gear , APU ,3Yr/6Yr/, HMV etc on their leased Max airframes.

Vulture capital doesn’t take kindly to losing money and will extract it one way or the other.

Airlines with solid financial covenants, (ie a long history of solid balance sheets and paying their bills), pay nothing.

So other than densification which is easily matched, and juniority, which disappears pdq with unionization, there’s not a lot of areas where small airline without critical mass can beat larger airlines on the cost side of the equation. Driving unit costs down by extending stage length has and will continue to fool those who don’t understand airline economics.

If someone wants to try and convince me Flair has a lower BELF and deeper pockets relative to their competition than say Ryanair or Spirit, I’m all ears.

Given flair's honestly Abysmal transborder performance, what are people's thoughts on the potential for Joint Ventures/Codeshares between the likes of Spirit. Allegiant, or Frontier? The key to success in the US market outside of the Florida leisure market seems to be partnership, given the way the route networks in the US work.

AC has United/Star, Westjet had (has?) Delta. Flair would probably have a lot more success if they flew into Denver instead of Tucson and let Frontier take care of the connections to Tucson. They clearly have shown that there are secondary markets in Canada that can use additional service (YKF for instance), and opened up a crap ton of the domestic market to true competition. Shouldn't they stop trying to take a page out of the European book with Ryanair (which is never going to work in North America given current agreements) and work with what already works in the US (large domestic transfer networks?) I'm sure any of the American ULCCs would jump at the opportunity to add Canadian connecting traffic to their networks for little to no financial risk.

Forgetting about the IT complexities of such arrangements, let alone the fundamental changes to their respective business models that would have to be implemented, US LCC’s have absolutely zero interest in getting into bed with unproven, financially weak partners with unreliable point to point operations.

If Flair are around in 5 years, they might get a conversation with someone. Who is another question given Soirit’s merger status, Indigo’s portfolio and Allegiant’s model.

It’s simply not worth the brand / brain damage.

Besides, Flair has no interest in, let alone figured out how to feed / flow domestically in Canada.

I don't understand the piss poor investment in marketing for all the new Canadian ULCCs. If you're introducing a new brand into the market you need to be loud about it or else no one will even know you exist. There should be huge catchy billboards in choice areas, I should be seeing banner ads and YouTube ads galore with smart and hooky material. Has anyone seen ads from any of these airlines? When Flair added BUR there should have been a big billboard in Burbank itself advertising this new service so that locals on this side of the woods know it's an option. Vancouver is a big market from LA, especially with the studios. When Avelo launched they had billboard and YouTube ads targeting the Valley. My family is in Vancouver and they don't know about any of these carriers. Only recently have they heard about Flair and it's all because of bad press.

Acey wrote:

June LF from YEG for Flair:
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 202022.pdf

LAS 43%
BNA 28%
BUR 36%

Please note that these load factors are publicly available from the government of the United States at the URL provided.
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 202022.pdf

As per the source, UA's load factor on DEN-YEG for the given period is 90%+

Please note that UA's load factor on DEN YEG is publicly available from the government of the United States at the URL provided.

Based on the performance of other carriers in this publicly available data, a casual observer might remark that Flair is performing poorly relative to their peers in the transborder sector.

What page is the Flair information on seats … I don’t see Flair mentioned on the web-links you provided.