TryToFlySomeday wrote:CHI787ORD wrote:The bigger issue seems to be AA’s drawdown and not UA upgauging or lack of gates. Until AA starts adding frequencies again on some busy routes like SFO, SEA, and bringing back some old destinations ORD will be #2.
My two cents:I'm not one for conspiracy theories (unless I have existing trends to back it up), but I think AA's drawdown is intentional. I suspect (though this is just my opinion) the long-term goal is to get AA down to just the following hubs: DFW/MIA/CLT + one East Coast hub (either PHL or JFK depending on NEA). AA doesn't need to be a big airline (they cannot be everything to everyone), but it does need to be a profitable one.
Question is what would happen to ORD? I don't think ORD is going to be substituted by building another AA hub. AA could concentrate on the Deep South cause that's where their bread and butter is.
Historically speaking, out of the US3, only DL has been building hubs organically [in the past two decades]. JFK was built organically, BOS too. SEA was semi-organic. DTW and MSP were acquired. AA and UA acquired some of their hubs, but for several years haven't built new hubs.
There are two scenarios that could happen in this scenario:
Best case scenario in an AA withdrawal:DL withdraws from DTW and organically builds a new, bigger and better hub at ORD at T5. MSP would be retained as a reliever hub for ORD (domestic service + Europe and ICN).
For those worried about DTW, it would still see local services from low-cost carriers and overseas services from some international carriers (probably there'd actually be room for expansion of the latter if DL ditched DTW for ORD).
MSP and ORD are far enough apart that they could maintain both as they do with MSP and DTW. ORD and DTW are too close to each other.
DL would take AA's place as #2 in ORD and be a much more formidable competitor to UA's stronghold at ORD than AA has been.
Worst case scenario in an AA withdrawal:UA monopolizes ORD and prices throughout the Midwest go up exponentially. This one is the more likely scenario. While a UA monopoly would ultimately mean more possibilities of cool flights around the country and the world, it wouldn't matter cause one would have to pay out of their nose for UA flights.
The future of AA:PHX, AUS, and SEA could remain good focus cities for AA; but I think ORD and LAX have got to go for AA. They need to concentrate on the Deep South + JFK (or PHL in a worse case scenario). Deep South prints money for AA, and isn't that what shareholders want to see?
It's the same with DL at ATL, and UA at ORD/DEN.
Here we go with this genuine idiocy again. It is truly miraculous that people with perspectives like this do not actually work in the route planning and financial hubs of major airlines -- let alone organizations of any kind.
For the umpteenth, ten millionth, seven billionth time. --
American Airlines is on the hook for an exorbitant financial contribution to ORD 21. The expansion is being partially built for THEM. They have assisted in the design, funding, and layout of the OGT. They are not -- will not -- and in certain circumstances contractually cannot -- close their ORD hub. Do people understand the corporate contracts that these airlines have in their hub cities? AA has legacy contracts with major Chicago employers valued in the
tens of millions of dollars -- each. AA right-sizing their ORD operation does not mean they are closing the hub.
Now saying AA needs to bail on both LAX and ORD? Be serious. This would completely cede those markets to competitors and basically forfeit those general regions. American pulling out of ORD would basically doom any presence they have north of the Mason Dixon, and closing the LAX hub would be equally absurd, do you know how many people live in those regions, respectively? Way more than the Deep South. On a pure metropolitan level, the LA area and Chicago have populations that dwarf Dallas and Charlotte. AA is positioned as a major + global carrier. Pulling out of these strategic regions not only gives up the domestic market, but lucrative international inbound connections that many mid-size metros utilize. I don't envision travelers from Kansas City would enjoy a permanent DFW routing to get to LHR -- they would simply switch to another airline.
I continue to propose this discussion occur with rationality -- the only AA hub that is truly at risk of being shuttered -- is PHL. AA has gutted their domestic ops at PHL and repositioned at DCA, LGA, and even to an extent JFK. The airline has expressed basically no interest in rebuilding it. Shuttering PHL into a TATL focus city op wouldn't even be a doom scenario for the airline -- it would be a right-sizing move.
"AA should focus on the deep south -- where their bread and butter is." Hello? Delta? Southwest? Speaking of...
DL will not abandon their fortress hub in MSP for ORD, either. That is plainly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. DL's investment in ORD is purely aesthetic for their O&D passengers from hub markets. Where would DL stage a hub operation at ORD? AA certainly wouldn't let them use the new terminal
they're funding construction of.In the Twin Cities, Delta is quite literally the airport anchor. Everyone in the northern plains outside of Chicago's sphere utilizes the DL MSP hub. Not to mention, the FF bases that exist in these markets are incredibly lucrative. What they do in DTW is up for discussion, as that hub has seen genuine service reductions -- primarily due to it's proximity to profitable hubs in MSP, LGA, BOS.
Hubs seeing drawdowns in service is purely reflective of the market conditions facing the industry. Like you said -- airlines need to be profitable. Part of profitability is offering service that adequately can serve markets that bring in revenue. Adjusting schedules + frequency is part of that. Until AA/DL start slashing local routes out of these markets, like they've done in PHL and DTW, there is zero reason to group ORD, LAX, or MSP in these discussions. It is absurd and frankly a waste of time for users of this forum.