CHI787ORD wrote:The bigger issue seems to be AA’s drawdown and not UA upgauging or lack of gates. Until AA starts adding frequencies again on some busy routes like SFO, SEA, and bringing back some old destinations ORD will be #2.
My two cents:I'm not one for conspiracy theories (unless I have existing trends to back it up), but I think AA's drawdown is intentional. I suspect (though this is just my opinion) the long-term goal is to get AA down to just the following hubs: DFW/MIA/CLT + one East Coast hub (either PHL or JFK depending on NEA). AA doesn't need to be a big airline (they cannot be everything to everyone), but it does need to be a profitable one.
Question is what would happen to ORD? I don't think ORD is going to be substituted by building another AA hub. AA could concentrate on the Deep South cause that's where their bread and butter is.
Historically speaking, out of the US3, only DL has been building hubs organically [in the past two decades]. JFK was built organically, BOS too. SEA was semi-organic. DTW and MSP were acquired. AA and UA acquired some of their hubs, but for several years haven't built new hubs.
There are two scenarios that could happen in this scenario:
Best case scenario in an AA withdrawal:DL withdraws from DTW and organically builds a new, bigger and better hub at ORD at T5. MSP would be retained as a reliever hub for ORD (domestic service + Europe and ICN).
For those worried about DTW, it would still see local services from low-cost carriers and overseas services from some international carriers (probably there'd actually be room for expansion of the latter if DL ditched DTW for ORD).
MSP and ORD are far enough apart that they could maintain both as they do with MSP and DTW. ORD and DTW are too close to each other.
DL would take AA's place as #2 in ORD and be a much more formidable competitor to UA's stronghold at ORD than AA has been.
Worst case scenario in an AA withdrawal:UA monopolizes ORD and prices throughout the Midwest go up exponentially. This one is the more likely scenario. While a UA monopoly would ultimately mean more possibilities of cool flights around the country and the world, it wouldn't matter cause one would have to pay out of their nose for UA flights.
The future of AA:PHX, AUS, and SEA could remain good focus cities for AA; but I think ORD and LAX have got to go for AA. They need to concentrate on the Deep South + JFK (or PHL in a worse case scenario). Deep South prints money for AA, and isn't that what shareholders want to see?
It's the same with DL at ATL, and UA at ORD/DEN.
of meeting a UA 747 from HNL in the rainbow/Saul Bass colors at E4, but I don't remember the terminal being particularly overrun.