What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

ilive4planes wrote:

What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

AA to RDU
DL brings back SLC and/or SEA
Announcement for Europe to begin in 2024
Breeze announcement
Frontier tries another route

Any chance you think IND could get an AmEx Escape Lounge similar to what they've opened at CMH, CVG, BDL, and others?

Jake93P wrote:

ilive4planes wrote:

What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

AA to RDU
DL brings back SLC and/or SEA
Announcement for Europe to begin in 2024
Breeze announcement
Frontier tries another route

Any chance you think IND could get an AmEx Escape Lounge similar to what they've opened at CMH, CVG, BDL, and others?

AmEx Escape Lounge?

Delta - with a big shiny new airport out west with room to spare and cashing in on possible consumer doubt on Southwest in the recent days, I'd be shocked if Salt Lake City didn't come back in some form, even if seasonal service. Additional frequencies here or there to the mainstay hubs would not surprise me.

Southwest - Florida and the southern sun has always been a strength of theirs out of IND, if anything this year I could see an additional Atlanta frequency come back to connect into the network and capitalize on strength of that market *OR* I'll finally change my tune and and say the addition of a Nashville would also compliment traffic flows and provide additional opportunities to connect to other cities than you can get at ATL.

Breeze and Avelo seem to be possibilities as they are certainly making a go of it at other cities. Would not be surprised to see one or the other come in with some type of small, but "hello, we're here," operation.

Carolinas - with a growing population with midwest ties mixed with strong local job markets and leisure opportunities, I don't see AA getting to hog all the market and could see increased or additional service. Raleigh/Durham being the low hanging fruit here thanks to AA's solid operation and Breeze and Avelo coming in but I'm also thinking outside the box with Asheville (Allegiant) or perhaps something out of left field such as Spirit or Frontier adding Charlotte or even really out there with Concord-Padgett with Allegiant.

If the world remains 'stable' and we hear of a strong transatlantic travel market this year, I'd be open to hearing about Aer Lingus looking to come in.

ilive4planes wrote:

Jake93P wrote:

ilive4planes wrote:

What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

AA to RDU
DL brings back SLC and/or SEA
Announcement for Europe to begin in 2024
Breeze announcement
Frontier tries another route

Any chance you think IND could get an AmEx Escape Lounge similar to what they've opened at CMH, CVG, BDL, and others?

AmEx Escape Lounge?

The “Escape Lounge” is a contract third party lounge - not an Amex product, although they do have a contract that allows access to certain Amex customers, like Platinum/Centurion Card holders. As a contract lounge it’s possible. With only the Delta Skyclub at IND, a contract lounge is a possibility.

ilive4planes wrote:

What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

AA adds a route or 2
Delta Resumes SLC,SEA
More ULCC
Breeze Shows Up
WN launches another route or 2.
TATL 2024 announcement

I still think BA going to IND is a possibility, but it's definitely hurt by them choosing CVG since Cummins was likely a big part of that and CVG vs IND isn't that much more convenient from Columbus.

But I do think there's still enough demand with Purdue/IU and hell even some of the Indiana suburbs of Chicago could find it easier to get to IND than ORD and even people willing to drive from South Bend rather than connect.

I'm late with this

2022 Year In Review

Dropped routes:

DL IND-SEA
G4 IND-PSP
F9 IND-CUN
LF IND-BNA
LF IND-MKE
LF IND-PIT
NK IND-MYR
NK IND-PNS
SY IND-MCO
WN IND-MYR


New routes:
AC IND-YYZ (resumption)
F9 IND-RDU
F9 IND-PHX
NK IND-EWR
WN IND-MCI (Return announced)
WN IND-SAN (Return announced - Technically was supposed to return in 2022)

Noteworthy airline changes:
IND-SEA 2x daily extended now starts Feb 2023
IND-DCA received mainline

Misc Airport News (Didn't go as thorough with this year's list):

MSC air cargo adds international flights to Asia, Europe, and Central America

Airlines added additional nonstop routes for the College Football Playoff

Garage Expansion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianapo ... al_Airport

Jake93P wrote:

ilive4planes wrote:

What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

AA to RDU
DL brings back SLC and/or SEA
Announcement for Europe to begin in 2024
Breeze announcement
Frontier tries another route

Any chance you think IND could get an AmEx Escape Lounge similar to what they've opened at CMH, CVG, BDL, and others?

My predictions are similar:

AA 1 new route
AS announces 3x IND-SEA for Summer 2024
DL return to SLC announced
F9 1 new route
MX new route(s)
G4 cuts a route
AC/UA/SY/NK/WN status quo/incremental capacity

What I think will happen:

DL adds SLC and increases frequency to LAX (daily), ATL and DTW again.
UA dabbles with FL routes that worked in COVID
WN adds BNA 1x/day
Breeze comes to town
G4 tries a new route or two

What I hope will happen:

DL comes to its senses and restores more service at IND
TATL comes back to IND in '24
A MEX route becomes reality

Governor's 2023 agenda:



https://www.in.gov/gov/files/2023-Next- ... ooklet.pdf

Midwestindy wrote:

Governor's 2023 agenda:



https://www.in.gov/gov/files/2023-Next- ... ooklet.pdf

I'll interpret.

Attract more domestic and international direct flights = more flights to Orlando and Cancun but with stops in Atlanta and Austin on the way so they are direct but not nonstop

Midwestindy wrote:

Jake93P wrote:

ilive4planes wrote:

What are your guys predictions for IND in 2023?

AA to RDU
DL brings back SLC and/or SEA
Announcement for Europe to begin in 2024
Breeze announcement
Frontier tries another route

Any chance you think IND could get an AmEx Escape Lounge similar to what they've opened at CMH, CVG, BDL, and others?

My predictions are similar:

AA 1 new route
AS announces 3x IND-SEA for Summer 2024
DL return to SLC announced
F9 1 new route
MX new route(s)
G4 cuts a route
AC/UA/SY/NK/WN status quo/incremental capacity

Is MX AeroMexico?

Jshank83 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Governor's 2023 agenda:



https://www.in.gov/gov/files/2023-Next- ... ooklet.pdf

I'll interpret.

Attract more domestic and international direct flights = more flights to Orlando and Cancun but with stops in Atlanta and Austin on the way so they are direct but not nonstop

Politicians (and average people) just don't know the difference between a direct and a nonstop, so they use them interchangeably.

[twoid][/twoid]

Indy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Jake93P wrote:

AA to RDU
DL brings back SLC and/or SEA
Announcement for Europe to begin in 2024
Breeze announcement
Frontier tries another route

Any chance you think IND could get an AmEx Escape Lounge similar to what they've opened at CMH, CVG, BDL, and others?

My predictions are similar:

AA 1 new route
AS announces 3x IND-SEA for Summer 2024
DL return to SLC announced
F9 1 new route
MX new route(s)
G4 cuts a route
AC/UA/SY/NK/WN status quo/incremental capacity

Is MX AeroMexico?

Breeze

indygs wrote:

What I think will happen:

DL adds SLC and increases frequency to LAX (daily), ATL and DTW again.
UA dabbles with FL routes that worked in COVID
WN adds BNA 1x/day
Breeze comes to town
G4 tries a new route or two

What I hope will happen:

DL comes to its senses and restores more service at IND
TATL comes back to IND in '24
A MEX route becomes reality

I'm hoping WN makes IND-BNA finally a reality. LF got the most they could out of it, and I believe it can work with connecting traffic via WN.

My 2023 prediction for IND:

AA and DL start to battle for CVG. DL counters with a few more flights from MIA. While AA and DL are busy with their CVG and MIA fight, neither notices WN upgauging aircraft and slowly adding a flight here and there until WN firmly has a hold on the number one spot at IND. I’m not really expecting anything too major for 2023 at IND.

Interesting.......

Looking at the average fares for Q3, DL's fare premium over AA from IND has largely been erased.

Q3 2022 nonstop routes
AA INDLAX $403
DL INDLAX $384

AA INDBOS $270
DL INDBOS $280

AA INDLGA $224
DL INDLGA $240

AA INDJFK $239
DL INDJFK $238

AA also looking quite strong in some non-DL markets:
AA INDORD $254
UA INDORD $223

AA INDPHX $332
WN INDPHX $265

AA INDDFW $295
WN INDDAL $217

AA INDAUS $237
WN INDAUS $188
------------------------------------
PHL-IND looks like an O&D money printer for AA, O&D fares on AA Q3 2022

AA PHLIND $350/588 miles

AA PHLCVG $320/507 miles
AA PHLCMH $315/406 miles
AA PHLCLE $310/363 miles
AA PHLSDF $302/576 miles
AA PHLCLT $294/449 miles
AA PHLSTL $281/814 miles
AA PHLMEM $276/875 miles
AA PHLBNA $271/675 miles
AA PHLDTW $269/453 miles
AA PHLRDU $268/337 miles
AA PHLORD $255/678 miles
AA PHLATL $234/666 miles

From RDU, IND was the 5th largest connecting market on AA (3rd largest behind LAS/SAN not including PHX/LAX).

From IND, RDU was the largest connecting market on AA.

Seems like a logical addition from IND & RDU, given PIT/CVG/BNA-RDU are served.

P1TBULL wrote:

My 2023 prediction for IND:

AA and DL start to battle for CVG. DL counters with a few more flights from MIA. While AA and DL are busy with their CVG and MIA fight, neither notices WN upgauging aircraft and slowly adding a flight here and there until WN firmly has a hold on the number one spot at IND. I’m not really expecting anything too major for 2023 at IND.

I can’t see that. RDU has been more of a dominant market for both carriers, rather than CVG, and Delta has yet to really retaliate at RDU other than some up-gauged services such as MIA (from CRJ9 to a320).

Interesting change in AA's placeholder last night....

IND-PHL moving to 4 out of 5 flights being mainline, and a 6th IND-DFW returns.

Still a placeholder, but weird to add that

Midwestindy wrote:

Interesting change in AA's placeholder last night....

IND-PHL moving to 4 out of 5 flights being mainline, and a 6th IND-DFW returns.

Still a placeholder, but weird to add that

Interesting placeholder there. Would be sweet for it to stick!

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221229 ... ction=news

Saw this article linked on Wikipedia.

MSC launching 2x weekly ICN-IND flights

NK running a pretty large schedule from IND in March, potential to be larger than UA in March:

NK IND-MCO 3x daily - A321/A320/A319
NK IND-FLL 2x daily - A321/A320
NK IND-TPA 2x daily - A320
NK IND-RSW 1x daily - A320
NK IND-LAS 1x daily - A320
NK IND-EWR 1x daily - A320

IND-EWR looks set up to fail, still scheduled as an A321 but IND-EWR departure pushed to 9:40PM to make room for the additional NK flying.

----
UA's new May schedule will be a 15% increase in seats from May 2019 (based on Fridays)

- Big push from IND-DEN helps, with UA IND-DEN seats scheduled to increase ~250%


Will be interesting to see if IND can beat 2019 passenger numbers this year.

P1TBULL wrote:

My 2023 prediction for IND:

AA and DL start to battle for CVG. DL counters with a few more flights from MIA. While AA and DL are busy with their CVG and MIA fight, neither notices WN upgauging aircraft and slowly adding a flight here and there until WN firmly has a hold on the number one spot at IND. I’m not really expecting anything too major for 2023 at IND.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service is a possibility if WN wins the GSA contract for IND-DCA with WN currently having the GSA contract for some other DCA-Midwest routes such as DCA-MDW/CMH/MCI/MKE/OMA/STL.

Honestly, if I was still commuting IND/NYC to see family/work/live, 940 kind of isn't that bad of a departure. Miss a bunch of b.s. at the security lines in Indy, the Indy rush hour traffic, and then when you get into Newark, just hop in a car and get somewhere a lot faster since it's midnight-after-ish and traffic is much lighter. Then again that's just my way of thinking and I'm weird like that

However, Google flights is showing fares starting at $50 - and some of the other carriers, even with 1 stops, aren't too far behind on that price, either.

So if you've wanted to get that trip to NYC, build some miles, or just fly around - book quick!

jplatts wrote:

P1TBULL wrote:

My 2023 prediction for IND:

AA and DL start to battle for CVG. DL counters with a few more flights from MIA. While AA and DL are busy with their CVG and MIA fight, neither notices WN upgauging aircraft and slowly adding a flight here and there until WN firmly has a hold on the number one spot at IND. I’m not really expecting anything too major for 2023 at IND.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service is a possibility if WN wins the GSA contract for IND-DCA with WN currently having the GSA contract for some other DCA-Midwest routes such as DCA-MDW/CMH/MCI/MKE/OMA/STL.

Oh man, I'd be thrilled for WN to add back IND-DCA and make the route more competitive with AA. Not sure where else they'd pull those slots from to serve IND but would love to see this happen.

indygs wrote:

jplatts wrote:

P1TBULL wrote:

My 2023 prediction for IND:

AA and DL start to battle for CVG. DL counters with a few more flights from MIA. While AA and DL are busy with their CVG and MIA fight, neither notices WN upgauging aircraft and slowly adding a flight here and there until WN firmly has a hold on the number one spot at IND. I’m not really expecting anything too major for 2023 at IND.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service is a possibility if WN wins the GSA contract for IND-DCA with WN currently having the GSA contract for some other DCA-Midwest routes such as DCA-MDW/CMH/MCI/MKE/OMA/STL.

Oh man, I'd be thrilled for WN to add back IND-DCA and make the route more competitive with AA. Not sure where else they'd pull those slots from to serve IND but would love to see this happen.

No chance WN IND-DCA comes back, there aren't any slots for it.

Even if there were slots for it, WN would probably increase service to another DCA market. IND-DCA didn't perform well when it operated, and WN has exited basically every business market from IND (BOS, NYC, DC, LA, CHI), with the exception of MCI.

The GSA contract stuff is generally overanalyzed, it's largely which airline can offer the government the lowest fares for an O&D pair.

Sorry to rain on the parade.

IMO these would be more realistic:
Daily SAN
MSY
BNA
West Coast
or Florida/Beaches

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

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Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

jplatts wrote:

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service is a possibility if WN wins the GSA contract for IND-DCA with WN currently having the GSA contract for some other DCA-Midwest routes such as DCA-MDW/CMH/MCI/MKE/OMA/STL.

Oh man, I'd be thrilled for WN to add back IND-DCA and make the route more competitive with AA. Not sure where else they'd pull those slots from to serve IND but would love to see this happen.

No chance WN IND-DCA comes back, there aren't any slots for it.

Even if there were slots for it, WN would probably increase service to another DCA market. IND-DCA didn't perform well when it operated, and WN has exited basically every business market from IND (BOS, NYC, DC, LA, CHI), with the exception of MCI.

The GSA contract stuff is generally overanalyzed, it's largely which airline can offer the government the lowest fares for an O&D pair.

Sorry to rain on the parade.

IMO these would be more realistic:
Daily SAN
MSY
BNA
West Coast
or Florida/Beaches

WN on LAX I thought performed pretty well?

ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Enough of a hassle that I've only done it once. Easily adds 1.5-2hrs to total travel.

I think IND-DCA and the other business markets WN has served over the years have performed poorly because of a lack of frequencies. Often they had just two flights a day and their timings were not ideal. DCA-IND often departed between 3-4pm which doesn't really allow for a full work day. By comparison, AA ran at the time 5-6X daily service with an early AM in both directions and as late as an 11p departure from DCA.

ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Not awful but not THAT convenient either.

Ultimately most people just drive anyway...BWI itself definitely has more leisure/personal traffic, and business traffic there is going to Baltimore or the suburbia business between Baltimore and DC. A law firm, let say, based in central DC will likely use DCA for domestic and IAD for international.

Gov't employee travel can go whatever direction...usually they just use the airport closest to where they live anyway.

Midwestindy wrote:

The GSA contract stuff is generally overanalyzed, it's largely which airline can offer the government the lowest fares for an O&D pair.

Being a former federal employee, all GSA contract means is that there are flights where the govt prefer you to use - that doesn't mean you can't book other airline at your choice as long as fare is not way more than the cheapest available ticket.

Federal employee on official travel AFAIK can book any the majors anyway.
==========================
On another side note - DC has WAY more than federal employee lol...they're only something like 10% of the job in the region. Even if federal employee can only book WN on WAS-IND that doesn't automatically mean WN should start adding flight on DCA-IND.

ilive4planes wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

Oh man, I'd be thrilled for WN to add back IND-DCA and make the route more competitive with AA. Not sure where else they'd pull those slots from to serve IND but would love to see this happen.

No chance WN IND-DCA comes back, there aren't any slots for it.

Even if there were slots for it, WN would probably increase service to another DCA market. IND-DCA didn't perform well when it operated, and WN has exited basically every business market from IND (BOS, NYC, DC, LA, CHI), with the exception of MCI.

The GSA contract stuff is generally overanalyzed, it's largely which airline can offer the government the lowest fares for an O&D pair.

Sorry to rain on the parade.

IMO these would be more realistic:
Daily SAN
MSY
BNA
West Coast
or Florida/Beaches

WN on LAX I thought performed pretty well?

I don't remember it performing poorly either, but it was one of the "business" routes WN cut from IND. LAX was slightly different, as it was more of a COVID cut as WN removed lots of TCON flying.

I wouldn't be bullish on it coming back soon, as WN has shrunk its LAX presence in favor of growing BUR, ONT, e.t.c.

indygs wrote:

I think IND-DCA and the other business markets WN has served over the years have performed poorly because of a lack of frequencies. Often they had just two flights a day and their timings were not ideal. DCA-IND often departed between 3-4pm which doesn't really allow for a full work day. By comparison, AA ran at the time 5-6X daily service with an early AM in both directions and as late as an 11p departure from DCA.

I think WN will always sort of struggle in terms of frequency. WN can't really operate more than 2-3 flights a day on most pure O&D routes (at least on most routes in IND sized markets), given the guage is ~150 seats/flight

In a market like IND-DCA that already has 6x daily flights on a different carrier, there is not much wiggle room for additional service.

Plus there is the unique circumstances of DCA, so WN is going to allocate the best timed slots to routes like MDW-DCA, whereas WN's OMA-DCA gets a 1pm departure and a 4pm return.

zakuivcustom wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Not awful but not THAT convenient either.

Ultimately most people just drive anyway...BWI itself definitely has more leisure/personal traffic, and business traffic there is going to Baltimore or the suburbia business between Baltimore and DC. A law firm, let say, based in central DC will likely use DCA for domestic and IAD for international.

Gov't employee travel can go whatever direction...usually they just use the airport closest to where they live anyway.

Midwestindy wrote:

The GSA contract stuff is generally overanalyzed, it's largely which airline can offer the government the lowest fares for an O&D pair.

Being a former federal employee, all GSA contract means is that there are flights where the govt prefer you to use - that doesn't mean you can't book other airline at your choice as long as fare is not way more than the cheapest available ticket.

Federal employee on official travel AFAIK can book any the majors anyway.
==========================
On another side note - DC has WAY more than federal employee lol...they're only something like 10% of the job in the region. Even if federal employee can only book WN on WAS-IND that doesn't automatically mean WN should start adding flight on DCA-IND.

I have to agree. If WN were to win a GSA contract, it doesn’t automatically guarantee a direct flight. There’s a lot more than a contract that goes into planning a government employee’s travel. While the system might encourage a contracted flight, the employee can override the selection. If it makes more sense to fly a different airline due to the employee’s schedule or a scheduled meeting, then a different airline may be selected. Most airlines usually offer flights around the same price to the federal government. Short notice travel is where a contract is usually beneficial to the government. The contracted airline usually offers the flight at a contracted price on short notice, whereas other airlines might be more expensive. It comes down to what is the more logical and cost efficient method to transport the federal employee.

I believe that if WN will add another route, it will likely be LAX or MDW again. They both offer connections, especially LAX to Hawaii. I believe it’s more likely they will upguage some aircraft to increase the number of seats available. They might also add a couple flights to existing routes, much like adding the second weekly flight to CUN this spring.

I wonder what route would return 1st IND-OAK or IND-LAX?

I'd prefer IND-SAN daily year-round.

Connecting on Southwest at PHX or LAS isn't bad though.

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ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

The BWI train station isn't at the airport so you have to take a bus to get there.

Then you have to make sure you buy the ticket for the right train and depending on if it's Amtrak or Marc the fares and the stops are different plus frequencies can be pretty bad depending on the time of day. The light rail from the terminal to get into Baltimore works well, but yeah....the DC connection is not convenient at all. That said, it's second to EWR if you want to use it to get somewhere on the NEC. Weirdly, BWI is probably the best airport to fly to to get to Wilmington, DE, for example as the Septa to 30th street from PHL is a pain.

P1TBULL wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Not awful but not THAT convenient either.

Ultimately most people just drive anyway...BWI itself definitely has more leisure/personal traffic, and business traffic there is going to Baltimore or the suburbia business between Baltimore and DC. A law firm, let say, based in central DC will likely use DCA for domestic and IAD for international.

Gov't employee travel can go whatever direction...usually they just use the airport closest to where they live anyway.

Midwestindy wrote:

The GSA contract stuff is generally overanalyzed, it's largely which airline can offer the government the lowest fares for an O&D pair.

Being a former federal employee, all GSA contract means is that there are flights where the govt prefer you to use - that doesn't mean you can't book other airline at your choice as long as fare is not way more than the cheapest available ticket.

Federal employee on official travel AFAIK can book any the majors anyway.
==========================
On another side note - DC has WAY more than federal employee lol...they're only something like 10% of the job in the region. Even if federal employee can only book WN on WAS-IND that doesn't automatically mean WN should start adding flight on DCA-IND.

I have to agree. If WN were to win a GSA contract, it doesn’t automatically guarantee a direct flight. There’s a lot more than a contract that goes into planning a government employee’s travel. While the system might encourage a contracted flight, the employee can override the selection. If it makes more sense to fly a different airline due to the employee’s schedule or a scheduled meeting, then a different airline may be selected. Most airlines usually offer flights around the same price to the federal government. Short notice travel is where a contract is usually beneficial to the government. The contracted airline usually offers the flight at a contracted price on short notice, whereas other airlines might be more expensive. It comes down to what is the more logical and cost efficient method to transport the federal employee.

I believe that if WN will add another route, it will likely be LAX or MDW again. They both offer connections, especially LAX to Hawaii. I believe it’s more likely they will upguage some aircraft to increase the number of seats available. They might also add a couple flights to existing routes, much like adding the second weekly flight to CUN this spring.

GSA contracts are not really any different from any corporate contract airlines have with entities/corporation, the difference is that GSA contracts are much less lucrative because airlines offer even deeper discontinuing.

Way overanalyzed on a.net who has which GSA contract, when most routes have fewer than a dozen government employees/day.

Midwestindy wrote:

P1TBULL wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

Not awful but not THAT convenient either.

Ultimately most people just drive anyway...BWI itself definitely has more leisure/personal traffic, and business traffic there is going to Baltimore or the suburbia business between Baltimore and DC. A law firm, let say, based in central DC will likely use DCA for domestic and IAD for international.

Gov't employee travel can go whatever direction...usually they just use the airport closest to where they live anyway.



Being a former federal employee, all GSA contract means is that there are flights where the govt prefer you to use - that doesn't mean you can't book other airline at your choice as long as fare is not way more than the cheapest available ticket.

Federal employee on official travel AFAIK can book any the majors anyway.
==========================
On another side note - DC has WAY more than federal employee lol...they're only something like 10% of the job in the region. Even if federal employee can only book WN on WAS-IND that doesn't automatically mean WN should start adding flight on DCA-IND.

I have to agree. If WN were to win a GSA contract, it doesn’t automatically guarantee a direct flight. There’s a lot more than a contract that goes into planning a government employee’s travel. While the system might encourage a contracted flight, the employee can override the selection. If it makes more sense to fly a different airline due to the employee’s schedule or a scheduled meeting, then a different airline may be selected. Most airlines usually offer flights around the same price to the federal government. Short notice travel is where a contract is usually beneficial to the government. The contracted airline usually offers the flight at a contracted price on short notice, whereas other airlines might be more expensive. It comes down to what is the more logical and cost efficient method to transport the federal employee.

I believe that if WN will add another route, it will likely be LAX or MDW again. They both offer connections, especially LAX to Hawaii. I believe it’s more likely they will upguage some aircraft to increase the number of seats available. They might also add a couple flights to existing routes, much like adding the second weekly flight to CUN this spring.

GSA contracts are not really any different from any corporate contract airlines have with entities/corporation, the difference is that GSA contracts are much less lucrative because airlines offer even deeper discontinuing.

Way overanalyzed on a.net who has which GSA contract, when most routes have fewer than a dozen government employees/day.

And it isn't that hard to get around flying on whoever has the contract anyway. If another option is cheaper (not as likely) or the time offered isn't exactly what you want/need and another airline has a similar price (easier to get authorized) then you don't have to fly who has the contract anyway.

ibthebigd wrote:

I wonder what route would return 1st IND-OAK or IND-LAX?

I'd prefer IND-SAN daily year-round.

Connecting on Southwest at PHX or LAS isn't bad though.

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Has to be LAX between the two

What's the upside for WN to re-add IND-OAK at this point though?

- Hawaii traffic can be served through daily flights on IND-LAS/PHX and (probably in the near future) IND-SAN
- Intra-west connectivity is arguably better served on IND-DEN/LAS
- Business traffic to the Bay Area is way down vs. rest of the country, not that WN is even competing for that in IND

Since IND-OAK was added in 2018, WN has lost about 10% of its IND market share. I doubt they would be able to match their pre-COVID performance if they re-added it soon.

Q3 2022 un/der/served routes:
IND-SAN - 151 PDEW - Fare increase of 142% vs. Q3 '19
IND-RDU - 110 PDEW
IND-PDX - 79 PDEW - Fare increase of 143% vs. Q3 '19
IND-SLC - 78 PDEW - Fare increase of 133% vs. Q3 '19
IND-SAT - 68 PDEW - Fare increase of 127% vs. Q3 '19
IND-SNA - 65 PDEW
IND-MSY - 62 PDEW
IND-SMF - 61 PDEW
IND-CHS - 57 PDEW
IND-ONT - 47 PDEW
IND-ORF - 47 PDEW
IND-SAV - 45 PDEW
IND-BDL - 44 PDEW
IND-SJC - 40 PDEW
IND-ABQ - 34 PDEW
IND-RIC - 33 PDEW
IND-MCI - 32 PDEW
IND-RNO - 30 PDEW
IND-OKC - 30 PDEW

Noteable changes - PDEW vs. Q3 '19:
IND-Sarasota 234%
IND-Austin 131%
IND-Phoenix 124%
IND-Fort Myers 123%
IND-NYC 106%
IND-LA 78%
IND-San Diego 78%
IND-Bay Area 77%
IND-Detroit 55%
IND-Chicago 51%
IND-Kansas City 26%

indygs wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

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Enough of a hassle that I've only done it once. Easily adds 1.5-2hrs to total travel.

I think IND-DCA and the other business markets WN has served over the years have performed poorly because of a lack of frequencies. Often they had just two flights a day and their timings were not ideal. DCA-IND often departed between 3-4pm which doesn't really allow for a full work day. By comparison, AA ran at the time 5-6X daily service with an early AM in both directions and as late as an 11p departure from DCA.

I am going to DC next week. I am flying to BWI because DCA is a terrible airport. I will be using Lyft instead of taking a train though. it is a longer drive, but the loss of the DCA aggravation is worth the little extra travel time.

Few things I noticed
1. Air Canada is going to a CRJ 900 here next month
2. Alaska is going 2X daily to SEA also next month. Hopefully that 2X becomes year round!

Contour's IND-BNA flight averaged an outbound LF of 70.9%, and an inbound LF of 79.3% in October.

While the Contour route has been scrapped, it gives me reason to believe that WN IND-BNA is possible.

Even on a lesser known airline, with less than daily short-haul service, and suboptimal timings, they were still getting ~24 O&D passengers/flight

The DC Metro Silver line is now complete to IAD so that makes IAD a useable airport for DC bound pax

Indy wrote:

indygs wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

How big of a hassle is it to fly to BWI then take the train into DC?

I wonder how much of the BWI traffic uses BWI to go to DC.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Enough of a hassle that I've only done it once. Easily adds 1.5-2hrs to total travel.

I think IND-DCA and the other business markets WN has served over the years have performed poorly because of a lack of frequencies. Often they had just two flights a day and their timings were not ideal. DCA-IND often departed between 3-4pm which doesn't really allow for a full work day. By comparison, AA ran at the time 5-6X daily service with an early AM in both directions and as late as an 11p departure from DCA.

I am going to DC next week. I am flying to BWI because DCA is a terrible airport. I will be using Lyft instead of taking a train though. it is a longer drive, but the loss of the DCA aggravation is worth the little extra travel time.

Midwestindy wrote:

Contour's IND-BNA flight averaged an outbound LF of 70.9%, and an inbound LF of 79.3% in October.

While the Contour route has been scrapped, it gives me reason to believe that WN IND-BNA is possible.

Even on a lesser known airline, with less than daily short-haul service, and suboptimal timings, they were still getting ~24 O&D passengers/flight

WN is perfect for a IND-BNA,STL

Both at 2X would be best!

When will the 2022 Pax numbers be released?

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When’s IND’s next announcement feels like it’s been a decade since the last one

Southwest launching SAN 1x weekly https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230127-wn23dom