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hOMSaR
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St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Sun Jan 01, 2023 1:15 am

Welcome to the St. Louis Aviation thread - 2023 edition.

Please continue to post your news and discussions below.

Link to the 2022 edition:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468459
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:16 am

All the best to our STL a.net posters for a healthy and happy 2023!
 
STLflyer
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:53 am

This is probably 100% grade A BS, and I’d take it with an entire mine full of salt, but someone on Reddit claims we’re getting another legacy European carrier:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... k/j2plzm7/

Anyone hear any rumors from more reputable sources?
 
strangeplanes
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:27 am

Yes
 
fishbone
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:32 am

Wouldn't this have been announced by end of calendar year 2022?
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:33 pm

STLflyer wrote:
This is probably 100% grade A BS, and I’d take it with an entire mine full of salt, but someone on Reddit claims we’re getting another legacy European carrier:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... k/j2plzm7/

Anyone hear any rumors from more reputable sources?


Nothing better than to start the new year with a new NS TA flight from STL! :stirthepot: I have no idea how we could handle that nor do I think there is a chance of adding incentives. Airport leadership is smarter than that. After proving with LH for an extended period of time, it MIGHT make sense to add another destination, but no way it is happening this year.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:40 pm

fishbone wrote:
Wouldn't this have been announced by end of calendar year 2022?


It would be for 2024 at the earliest.

But sidenote. I am a little surprised we haven't heard of a frequency upgauge for LH yet. Starting to really wonder if that is going to happen or not.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:05 pm

TWA302 wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
This is probably 100% grade A BS, and I’d take it with an entire mine full of salt, but someone on Reddit claims we’re getting another legacy European carrier:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... k/j2plzm7/

Anyone hear any rumors from more reputable sources?


Nothing better than to start the new year with a new NS TA flight from STL! :stirthepot: I have no idea how we could handle that nor do I think there is a chance of adding incentives. Airport leadership is smarter than that. After proving with LH for an extended period of time, it MIGHT make sense to add another destination, but no way it is happening this year.

Only thing I could see is some KEF seasonal, but that's about it. Probably just a sarcastic reddit comment.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:13 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
fishbone wrote:
Wouldn't this have been announced by end of calendar year 2022?


It would be for 2024 at the earliest.

But sidenote. I am a little surprised we haven't heard of a frequency upgauge for LH yet. Starting to really wonder if that is going to happen or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if UA also added Europe rather than LH upping frequency. Which might be with the "new" legacy airline is. But probably not what they were intending on saying if they are being serious at all.
 
Codasco
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:04 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
fishbone wrote:
Wouldn't this have been announced by end of calendar year 2022?


It would be for 2024 at the earliest.

But sidenote. I am a little surprised we haven't heard of a frequency upgauge for LH yet. Starting to really wonder if that is going to happen or not.


Any chance ground handling issues in Frankfurt are slowing this down? I few in and out of FRA last month well before Christmas. Everything was delayed due to lack of ground staff. On arrival baggage took 90 minutes, reason given was lack of staff. On departure back to STL we sat on the aircraft at the gate for 2 hours waiting for ground staff to cater and load bags. Seems like there's some capacity issues in FRA right now.

Despite this, it was a fantastic flight. I've heard/read so much about Lufthansa "slipping" since the last time I flew them (20 years ago), but from what I could tell it was unwarranted. Service was fantastic, food was tasty, aircraft was clean.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:30 pm

STLflyer wrote:
This is probably 100% grade A BS, and I’d take it with an entire mine full of salt, but someone on Reddit claims we’re getting another legacy European carrier:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... k/j2plzm7/

Anyone hear any rumors from more reputable sources?


Reddit is the dregs of the internet. I'm skeptical - what European legacy would want to come in to a bloodbath in STL against LH?

I could see someone like Icelandair or maybe even Condor, but a legacy?

For the sake of discussion, let's assume it's true. The obvious guess is BA, but that doesn't really fit their MO of starting new flights to secondary US markets. They don't typically move into markets serviced by other Euro carriers. I can't think of any other Euro legacies that would be interested in STL. LH is already here. AF doesn't seem logical. Who else is there that would seem reasonable?
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:51 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
This is probably 100% grade A BS, and I’d take it with an entire mine full of salt, but someone on Reddit claims we’re getting another legacy European carrier:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... k/j2plzm7/

Anyone hear any rumors from more reputable sources?


Reddit is the dregs of the internet. I'm skeptical - what European legacy would want to come in to a bloodbath in STL against LH?

I could see someone like Icelandair or maybe even Condor, but a legacy?

For the sake of discussion, let's assume it's true. The obvious guess is BA, but that doesn't really fit their MO of starting new flights to secondary US markets. They don't typically move into markets serviced by other Euro carriers. I can't think of any other Euro legacies that would be interested in STL. LH is already here. AF doesn't seem logical. Who else is there that would seem reasonable?


Aer Lingus supposedly was coming a couple years ago but the equipment they wanted to run on wasn't delivered yet so they backed out. No reason to think they wouldn't be back in the cards when the A321XLR deliveries start... whenever they quit getting pushed back. They aren't thought of as a traditional legacy but I think technically are one, at least by google. Seems like it would pair well with LH if that actually is who the person is talking about.
 
LambertMan
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:57 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
This is probably 100% grade A BS, and I’d take it with an entire mine full of salt, but someone on Reddit claims we’re getting another legacy European carrier:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... k/j2plzm7/

Anyone hear any rumors from more reputable sources?


Reddit is the dregs of the internet. I'm skeptical - what European legacy would want to come in to a bloodbath in STL against LH?

I could see someone like Icelandair or maybe even Condor, but a legacy?

For the sake of discussion, let's assume it's true. The obvious guess is BA, but that doesn't really fit their MO of starting new flights to secondary US markets. They don't typically move into markets serviced by other Euro carriers. I can't think of any other Euro legacies that would be interested in STL. LH is already here. AF doesn't seem logical. Who else is there that would seem reasonable?

The original poster's profile says he or she has a foot fetish. I highly doubt the source is reputable at all.

Aer Lingus isn't coming here this summer. Let's try to get our only flight to 5x weekly and replace the awful temporary banners. What a joke.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:24 pm

Aer Lingus has been around since 1936 and used to be one of those airlines you'd call the 1800 number and press 1 for flight arrival and departure information recorded everyday by someone in the U.S. reservations office. That qualifies as legacy, eh? :)

I wouldn't be surprised to see STL on the eventual list for Aer Lingus 321XLR service - although that's still at least a year (plus a half?) away.

There's still time for Lufthansa to boost schedules - but if you don't see a 4th weekly on the books for the summer by say early February - then it's probably not happening.

For 2023:
It'd be nice to see Southwest move a city or two back from that "seasonal" column to the year-around column and strengthen up some departure frequencies.

For the fun of it - one new destination out of Belleville on Allegiant - New Orleans or West Palm, come on down.

And it'd be fun to see a left field or two move come to fruition - such as Southwest to O'Hare or Frontier or Spirit to another unexpected destination such as Dallas Ft Worth, or Frontier to Raleigh/Durham or Ft. Myers.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:00 pm

Just got an update that BLV did set a new passenger record in 2022. It is going to only be by a few hundred passengers but a record none the less.

Official press release should be coming this week or next.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:39 pm

My predictions for 2022 were

New airport layout plan released. Ends up being a renovation of T1 and moving to a one terminal setup. I fear the timeline for completion will be very long though...

WN - WAY OFF.. BDL came back for 2 months and PUJ was added, but that is it
Four or Five new routes announced. Likely options IMO, BDL/SFO come back ORD/ORF/RIC/ABQ/RNO/IND/COS or some spoke route. I'd love to see PVR but I am not holding my breathe.
Some future schedule is released (could be in 2022 for 2023) over 140 flights a day.

AA - Nope
Two new routes announced.

NK - Still nope
Four new routes announced. Most likely IMO, EWR/OAK/MIA/MYR/MSY

DL - Finally one right
nothing new

UA - At least we got more mainline
Hardest one for me because of the LH route. I think we see them add something and add more mainline. I just don't know what.

Frontier - I'll take a win on this one
Some random route added that probably gets cut later.
ATL gets cut.

G4 - Nope
BLV announced as a new base. Five new routes. Probably some combo the ones in the filing for the small community grant EWR/BWI/OAK/LAX/SNA/DEN/SAN

Long shots - Nope
AS re-adds PDX
Hawaiian announces a new nonstop to HNL
________________________

Boy was I off.

This years predictions

I think it is going to be pretty quiet.

F9 - will add something but I have no clue what. They will drop something also.

WN - 2 new routes announced, again might not start til 2023 at this point.

NK - 2 of the cut routes come back. PHX/RSW/LAX/FLL likely options

AA/AS/UA/DL - I expect nothing. Hopefully we see UA bring SFO back but I am not holding my breath.

Breeze - I am going to think positive and say this is the year we get an announcement.

G4 - Another tough one. I'll say 2 new routes get announced. I want to think optimistically and say 4 but I know there it also is just as likely to be zero so I'll split the difference at 2.

Viva Aerobus announces it is starting service to CUN from BLV in early 2024

International - Seems like there is some smoke to this. So I'll say Aer Lingus gets announced to start 2024. IF A321XLR deliveries don't get pushed again.
 
atrude777
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:54 pm

stlgph wrote:
And it'd be fun to see a left field or two move come to fruition - such as Southwest to O'Hare


I would be all for Southwest adding ORD-STL, I have been watching ORD-BNA to compare...

However, with the new Terminal..wouldn't surprise me to see ORD-MCI happen on Southwest before STL.

Sadly for the first time I can ever recall, I did not fly to STL in 2022, I was flying the non stop ORD-CGI/PAH to get home to Southern Illinois.

Maybe I can add STL back on the route map for 2023!

Alex
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:08 pm

From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”
 
STLflyer
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:24 pm

That sucks, wonder if LH would ever consider upgauging if they can’t add frequencies.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:33 pm

STLflyer wrote:
That sucks, wonder if LH would ever consider upgauging if they can’t add frequencies.

I’m surprised they won’t find a way to get a 4th I. At least so there aren’t two off days. But when I saw they are keeping austin at 3 a week I had a feeling we probably were also. Would love to see an A340 though like they are getting.
 
LambertMan
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 06, 2023 1:36 am

I wouldn’t count out the 4th or 5th frequency yet. RHN was on kmox saying she expected it this spring. Loads in Nov/Dec were still 85%+. Also business class demand has been much better than anticipated.

So, you never know, but all is positive for the flight’s long-term health.
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:23 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”



What a tease. Now my mind is racing :hyper: . So if he didn't say Europe, but the poster of this said Europe because he was talking about LH success, I am even more confused. 85% NOV/DEC LF is super strong and just shows how much a flight like this was needed for STL.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:45 pm

Should take a look and see what incentives are out there for another carrier - and then for the fun of it, might compare them to what got Aer Lingus into Cleveland since that seems to be our favorite frontrunner. Perhaps taking a look at British Airways into Cincinnati might be worth a glimpse, too.

I'd be very surprised if Icelandair came to town. Their niche appears to be going into larger, proven markets with existing options for international service and making a go of it through price and experience opportunities. I see them doing whatever it takes to get a 737 to reach LAX before coming into STL.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:36 am

Loads for September 2022

Combined both ways

AS
SEA 89%

AA
PHL 88%
CLT 87.5%
PHX 87%
DFW 87%
LAX 87%
MIA 84.5%
ORD 81.5%
DCA 79.5%
AUS 66%
LGA 64%
BOS 62.5%

DL
MSP 87.5%
DTW 87%
SLC 85.5%
ATL 84%
LGA 74.5%

F9
DEN 77.5%
MCO 77%
LAS 76.5%
ATL 59.5%

NK
MCO 80.5%
LAS 78.5% - 69.5% out, 87% in - Like this the entire year. Inbound is 20% higher than out. Maybe avoiding F9 redeye back but F9s splits aren't that far apart.

UA
DEN 92%
ORD 87.5%
IAD 82.5%
IAH 82%
EWR 70.5%


WN
SNA 95.5%
SMF 95%
LAX 94.5%
SAN 94.5%
OAK 94%
RDU 93%
SEA 92.5%
SJC 92.5%
JAX 92.5%
PDX 92%
DEN 91%
MYR 90.5%
TPA 88%
LGB 88%
PHL 88.5%
LAS 87.5%
PHX 87%
DTW 86.5%
SJU 86%
CLE 86%
MCO 85%
MIA 85%
PIT 84.5%
MKE 84.5%
CHS 84.5%
DAL 84.5%
RSW 84%
PNS 83.5%
MSP 83%
CMH 83%
OKC 82.5%
FLL 82.5%
CLT 82%
AUS 81.5%
MSY 81.5%
BOS 80.5%
MCI 80%
BNA 79.5%
HOU 79.5%
OMA 79%
BWI 79%
SLC 78.5% - one flight each way
ATL 78.5%
SRQ 76%
SAT 76% - 61.5% out 90.5% in. Wide splits like this the last 4 months
ECP 75%
LGA 74.5%
DCA 74.5%
MDW 69.5%
LIT 69%
ICT 68.5%
DSM 68%
TUL 64.5%

G4 (BLV)
PIE 94%
PGD 90.5%
VPS 89%
SFB 86.5%
LAS 80.5%

Full spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:58 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Loads for September 2022

Combined both ways

OAK 94%
SJC 92.5%


If this doesn't mean people are using SJC/OAK for trips to SFO, I don't know what is. It's time to bring it back!
 
Jshank83
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 12:03 am

STL November numbers

Up 14.2% vs Dec 2021
Down 9% vs Dec 2019

Up 34.5% YTD vs 2021
Down 13.4% YTD vs 2019

Passengers last 12 months: 13,588,131

Southwest melt down will keep us from 14 million this year. Guessing it ends up around 13.7 million

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... rt-Nov.pdf
 
Codasco
Posts: 109
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 7:27 pm

TWA302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”



What a tease. Now my mind is racing :hyper: . So if he didn't say Europe, but the poster of this said Europe because he was talking about LH success, I am even more confused. 85% NOV/DEC LF is super strong and just shows how much a flight like this was needed for STL.


I was on LH 449 on Nov. 30 and LH 448 on Dec. 11. Both in business. Not a single seat available on the 30th, and only a couple on the 11th.

The staffing shortage was evident, though. Between conversations overheard amongst staff and trouble with ground servicing in FRA, I am not surprised to hear this.

Maybe the big announcement is LH service to MUC! (wishful thinking :lol: ).
 
BHMNONREV
Posts: 1312
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 9:17 am

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:57 pm

Codasco wrote:
TWA302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”



What a tease. Now my mind is racing :hyper: . So if he didn't say Europe, but the poster of this said Europe because he was talking about LH success, I am even more confused. 85% NOV/DEC LF is super strong and just shows how much a flight like this was needed for STL.


I was on LH 449 on Nov. 30 and LH 448 on Dec. 11. Both in business. Not a single seat available on the 30th, and only a couple on the 11th.

The staffing shortage was evident, though. Between conversations overheard amongst staff and trouble with ground servicing in FRA, I am not surprised to hear this.

Maybe the big announcement is LH service to MUC! (wishful thinking :lol: ).


If, and a very big if this will be TA then as several others have alluded to would think EI would be at the top of the list. And since LH is not expected to go beyond the current 3/wk, maybe EI could do 4/wk on the alternating days.

Just a thought..
 
Jshank83
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:07 pm

BHMNONREV wrote:
Codasco wrote:
TWA302 wrote:


What a tease. Now my mind is racing :hyper: . So if he didn't say Europe, but the poster of this said Europe because he was talking about LH success, I am even more confused. 85% NOV/DEC LF is super strong and just shows how much a flight like this was needed for STL.


I was on LH 449 on Nov. 30 and LH 448 on Dec. 11. Both in business. Not a single seat available on the 30th, and only a couple on the 11th.

The staffing shortage was evident, though. Between conversations overheard amongst staff and trouble with ground servicing in FRA, I am not surprised to hear this.

Maybe the big announcement is LH service to MUC! (wishful thinking :lol: ).


If, and a very big if this will be TA then as several others have alluded to would think EI would be at the top of the list. And since LH is not expected to go beyond the current 3/wk, maybe EI could do 4/wk on the alternating days.

Just a thought..


MUC on a A380 obviously!

If it is Aer Lingus, which I personally think makes the most sense (I wanted BA/Eurowings Discover or LH/Aer Lingus) and they get their A321XLR issues worked out. I think something like LH 5x/week and Aer Lingus 4x/week seems like it could be doable for 2024. Question for me is would Aer Lingus run year round or just seasonally? I still wonder about how much capacity we can make work in winter.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:16 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”


Just flew in the other day and saw that there is a UK flag along with a German, Mexican, and canadian flag at E29 Jetway entrance. All of those are served by STL except UK. I know I'm reading into this way too much, and it's already January (so a summer flight is probably out of the question) but is it possible that that BA could possibly be announcing service this year? Or has that flag been there for a long time?
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:51 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”


Just flew in the other day and saw that there is a UK flag along with a German, Mexican, and canadian flag at E29 Jetway entrance. All of those are served by STL except UK. I know I'm reading into this way too much, and it's already January (so a summer flight is probably out of the question) but is it possible that that BA could possibly be announcing service this year? Or has that flag been there for a long time?

No BA announcement
 
STLflyer
Posts: 395
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:08 am

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:14 am

There have been flags there for a long time. I don’t recall which country’s flags were up there, but they’re not new.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 5:07 am

BA744PHX wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
From another message board. If the person that posted it wants to claim it on here feel free but I didn’t want to attribute it to you.

Jason Hall would likely be in the know so if he did say this stuff I would take it to be pretty true.

“ Was at a luncheon a month back and Jason Hall was a guest speaker. He did mention Lufthansa is very happy with the STL route but likely won't be expanding service beyond 3x week but pretty much only due to staffing shortages (a companywide problem). They could and may expand in the future if that is solved, but not expected in the near future.

He also did tease and say there would be an announcement in 2023 regarding another service to Europe. No specifics, no timeline, just said it was a "tease" for the attendees. Come to think of it, he didn't even say the word "Europe" but it was alongside talking about the LH route and its success so it was implied. Also didn't mention if it was a done deal or not, but the tone/comments made it seem like it was (but of course nothing is guaranteed or final until announced).”


Just flew in the other day and saw that there is a UK flag along with a German, Mexican, and canadian flag at E29 Jetway entrance. All of those are served by STL except UK. I know I'm reading into this way too much, and it's already January (so a summer flight is probably out of the question) but is it possible that that BA could possibly be announcing service this year? Or has that flag been there for a long time?

No BA announcement


Yes too late for one at this point. I think if we were getting something for this year it would be announced by now.
 
STLflyer
Posts: 395
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:08 am

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:36 pm

I was going through the photos I took at the LH inaugural. Unfortunately I didn't get any clear pictures of all the flags, although the bottom half of the Jamaican flag is in one of my photos. Don't know if the British flag was there before.

If it wasn't, and now it is, it would make me wonder. I could see a couple special charter flights being operated for the Cards/Cubs London series in June, but they should probably announce them before people make their own arrangements like yours truly.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:09 am

July International Loads

combined both ways

WN MBJ 95%
F9 PUJ 94%
WN CUN 93.5%
LH FRA 91% (better inbound than outbound)
F9 CUN 87.5%
AC YYZ 86%
Viva SJD 79.5%
Viva PVR 64%
Viva HUX 50%
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:00 am

October numbers for BLV

Passengers
Down 20% vs OCT21
Up 2.97% YTD vs 2021

Loads
VPS 88%
SFB 85.5%
LAS 82%
PIE 82%
SRQ 80%
PGD 68.5%
 
stlgph
Posts: 11865
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:57 pm

for Belleville you say down 20% vs 2021, but by chance do you happen to have a comparison for total flights ran in Oct 2021 vs. Oct 2022?

thanks!
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:36 pm

stlgph wrote:
for Belleville you say down 20% vs 2021, but by chance do you happen to have a comparison for total flights ran in Oct 2021 vs. Oct 2022?

thanks!

72 vs 102
 
stlgph
Posts: 11865
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:06 pm

some very very rough math - if you're looking at 72 vs. 102 and then 20% down vs. total load factor ... then accounting for some seats, while being down 20%, you're kind of in the range of looking at 2,000 or so passengers in Oct. 2022 more than Oct. 2021's total.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:12 pm

stlgph wrote:
some very very rough math - if you're looking at 72 vs. 102 and then 20% down vs. total load factor ... then accounting for some seats, while being down 20%, you're kind of in the range of looking at 2,000 or so passengers in Oct. 2022 more than Oct. 2021's total.


For passenger numbers I post I go off what DOT posts but this link has a spreadsheet the airport puts out. It is usually pretty close.

Slide 15
https://flymidamerica.com/wp-content/up ... -17-22.pdf

18 more passengers per flight over last year
but 30 less flights
2500ish less passengers

The estimates they put out are usually high (ie 163 passengers per flight).

There is another PBC meeting tomorrow so they should upload the slide from December shortly there after. They might have an updated spreadsheet for November in it, which I guess is going to bring the numbers for 2021 and 2022 close to even with December looking like about a wash.
Last edited by Jshank83 on Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
stlgph
Posts: 11865
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:14 pm

So then it was 72 this year vs 102 last year? I was reading it the other way.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:15 pm

stlgph wrote:
So then it was 72 this year vs 102 last year? I was reading it the other way.


yea 30 less in 2022
 
stlgph
Posts: 11865
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:23 pm

Ah, okay. Thanks for the clarification then. Yes, then the math in reverse makes sense! :)
Glad you're on top of this.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:28 pm

stlgph wrote:
Ah, okay. Thanks for the clarification then. Yes, then the math in reverse makes sense! :)
Glad you're on top of this.


I talked to the airport commissioner a week or so ago. He made it sound like they would set a record by a few hundred people. Might end up getting bumped up a tad bit when final numbers come out. A press release should be coming out sometime on it.

We will see what 2023 holds. The projects they have are that it will be up, but again they usually have rosy projections and unless flights are up, which so far they are not, it is hard for me to see them beating this year.
 
jplatts
Posts: 6369
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Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:30 pm

Here are the Q3 2022 PDEW's of the top markets traveled to from STL that don't currently have WN nonstop service out of STL:
STL-SEA - 294 (WN is going to be resuming STL-SEA nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 6/10/2023)
STL-SFO/OAK/SJC - 241 (WN is going to be resuming STL-SJC nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 3/4/2023 and WN is going to be resuming STL-OAK nonstop service on weekdays and Sundays starting on 6/4/2023)
STL-PDX - 102 (WN is going to be resuming STL-PDX nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 6/10/2023)
STL-SMF - 100 (WN is going to be resuming STL-SMF nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 3/11/2023)
STL-PNS - 68 (WN is going to be resuming STL-PNS nonstop service on a weekend-only basis starting on 3/11/2023)
STL-CHS - 64 (WN is going to be resuming STL-CHS nonstop service on a weekend-only basis starting on 6/4/2023)
STL-ORF/PHF - 63
STL-BDL - 59
STL-MYR - 52 (WN is going to be resuming STL-MYR nonstop service on a weekend-only basis starting on 6/4/2023)
STL-RIC - 49

There is likely more than enough demand for daily nonstop service to PDX from STL on WN with the lack of daily STL-PDX nonstop service being the biggest hole in the STL market.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:34 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the Q3 2022 PDEW's of the top markets traveled to from STL that don't currently have WN nonstop service out of STL:
STL-SEA - 294 (WN is going to be resuming STL-SEA nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 6/10/2023)
STL-SFO/OAK/SJC - 241 (WN is going to be resuming STL-SJC nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 3/4/2023 and WN is going to be resuming STL-OAK nonstop service on weekdays and Sundays starting on 6/4/2023)
STL-PDX - 102 (WN is going to be resuming STL-PDX nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 6/10/2023)
STL-SMF - 100 (WN is going to be resuming STL-SMF nonstop service on a Saturday-only basis starting on 3/11/2023)
STL-PNS - 68 (WN is going to be resuming STL-PNS nonstop service on a weekend-only basis starting on 3/11/2023)
STL-CHS - 64 (WN is going to be resuming STL-CHS nonstop service on a weekend-only basis starting on 6/4/2023)
STL-ORF/PHF - 63
STL-BDL - 59
STL-MYR - 52 (WN is going to be resuming STL-MYR nonstop service on a weekend-only basis starting on 6/4/2023)
STL-RIC - 49

There is likely more than enough demand for daily nonstop service to PDX from STL on WN with the lack of daily STL-PDX nonstop service being the biggest hole in the STL market.


Oak starts back up Monday-Friday in April
CHS also starts back up on Sundays in April
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:09 pm

A couple EAS for STL updates

Southern may move all of Jonesboro's flights to STL and discontinue BNA.

“There are pros and cons to having two hubs, but being so close to Memphis, frequency is very important,” Cestari told commissioners. “We’re going to keep monitoring the situation, but at some point, we may want to ask you folks if you want all St. Louis to be able to give more frequency throughout the day.”

Cestari said Southern, like all airlines, has been impacted by a pilot shortage, resulting in some canceled flights. However, he said, a new class of new pilots is being added at strategic locations, such as the St. Louis hub.

https://www.jonesborosun.com/news/airli ... 69048.html

Owensboro picks Contour to CLT, to replace Cape Air

https://www.owensborotimes.com/news/202 ... -st-louis/
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 19, 2023 5:11 am

2022 3rd Qtr PDEWs for STL only. BLV is not included.
One way numbers
Bold/Underline routes that are not on the released schedule until we got down to wherever everything wasn't served

New York City, NY (Metropolitan Area) 713.5
Washington, DC (Metropolitan Area) 629.5
Denver, CO 610
Orlando, FL 579.5
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX 525
Las Vegas, NV 505.5
Los Angeles, CA (Metropolitan Area) 495.5
Atlanta, GA (Metropolitan Area) 431
Chicago, IL 388.5
Boston, MA (Metropolitan Area) 371
Miami, FL (Metropolitan Area) 354
Houston, TX 351
Phoenix, AZ 324.5
Seattle, WA 294
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 268.5
San Francisco, CA (Metropolitan Area) 241
Tampa, FL (Metropolitan Area) 240
Philadelphia, PA 233
Austin, TX 230
Charlotte, NC 217.5
Detroit, MI 197.5
San Diego, CA 190.5
Salt Lake City, UT 160
Fort Myers, FL 146.5
New Orleans, LA 140
Raleigh/Durham, NC 134.5
San Antonio, TX 124.5
Jacksonville, FL 110.5
Nashville, TN 104.5
Portland, OR 102
Sacramento, CA 99.5
Cleveland, OH (Metropolitan Area) 97.5
Pittsburgh, PA 91.5
Columbus, OH 79
Panama City, FL 79
Omaha, NE 76
Pensacola, FL 67.5
Charleston, SC 63.5
Norfolk, VA (Metropolitan Area) 63
Oklahoma City, OK 60.5
Hartford, CT 59
Milwaukee, WI 58.5
Myrtle Beach, SC 51.5
Kansas City, MO 51.5
Richmond, VA 49
Sarasota/Bradenton, FL 49
Savannah, GA 43.5 - Served once a week in summer from BLV
Albuquerque, NM 43
Portland, ME 38

Tulsa, OK 37.5
Wichita, KS 37
Bozeman, MT 35.5
Valparaiso, FL 35
Spokane, WA 34.5
Buffalo, NY 34

Little Rock, AR 34
Reno, NV 33.5
Des Moines, IA 33
Albany, NY 31.5
Boise, ID 29
West Palm Beach/Palm Beach, FL 29
Tucson, AZ 28.5
Colorado Springs, CO 28
Syracuse, NY 26.5
El Paso, TX 25.5

Fresno, CA 23
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 22
Rochester, NY 21
Grand Rapids, MI 19.5
Birmingham, AL 17
Kalispell, MT 16
Cincinnati, OH 16
Jackson, WY 15.5
Greensboro/High Point, NC 15
Wilmington, NC 15
Eugene, OR 14.5
Palm Springs, CA 14.5
Asheville, NC 12.5
Columbia, SC 12.5
Key West, FL 12.5
Burlington, VT 12
Harrisburg, PA 12
Missoula, MT 11.5
Santa Barbara, CA 11.5
Bangor, ME 11
Lubbock, TX 11
Harlingen/San Benito, TX 10.5
Knoxville, TN 10
Jackson/Vicksburg, MS 9
Corpus Christi, TX 8.5
Midland/Odessa, TX 8.5
Traverse City, MI 8.5
Billings, MT 8
Fargo, ND 8
Jacksonville/Camp Lejeune, NC 8
Rapid City, SD 8
Tallahassee, FL 8
Sioux Falls, SD 7.5
Medford, OR 7.5
Amarillo, TX 7
Mobile, AL 6.5
Baton Rouge, LA 6.5
Montrose/Delta, CO 6.5
Augusta, GA 6
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA 6
Charlottesville, VA 6
Daytona Beach, FL 6
Gulfport/Biloxi, MS 6
Green Bay, WI 6
Hilton Head, SC 6
Idaho Falls, ID 6
Roanoke, VA 6
Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton, PA 5.5
Chattanooga, TN 5.5
Fayetteville, NC 5.5
Gainesville, FL 5.5
Pasco/Kennewick/Richland, WA 5.5
Bend/Redmond, OR 5.5
Mission/McAllen/Edinburg, TX 5
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 683
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:54 pm

TWA302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Loads for September 2022

Combined both ways

OAK 94%
SJC 92.5%


If this doesn't mean people are using SJC/OAK for trips to SFO, I don't know what is. It's time to bring it back!


Well, one possibility is people are using those flights to get to OAK or SJC.

Low loads on a OAK/SJC flight, that's reason to shift to SFO; high loads now also a reason to shift to SFO. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5865
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation - 2023

Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:52 pm

Slides from the December board of public service meeting show BLV will likely be targeting shorter routes near team. (I am guessing longer routes are out until it becomes a base)

Potential routes include Denver, Austin, New Orleans, Nashville, Baltimore, Newark, Asheville

https://www.co.st-clair.il.us/webdocume ... -15-22.pdf

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