Washington State Aviation - 2023

jbs2886 · Wed May 03, 2023 7:07 pm

ER757 wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
What do you think is next for Sea-Tac? Which longhaul routes or increased service (SQ to daily? Return to China/HK? EK returns to double daily? EY starts SEA-AUH? Oceania?) is likely in the next 3-5 years?

Prior to COVID, SEA was on QF's radar, so it wouldn't shock me if they were to start SYD/SEA in the next year or two. To be honest, there are not a lot of potential long haul routes left unserved out of SEA via either nonstop or single connection. Can't see EY coming here, QR and EK have the ME covered and between those two and SQ, India is well served via one-stop routings

QF possible

SQ frequency increase is possible

EY new plan is specifically east coast of US focused, they don’t even fly to LAX, they won’t be adding SEA

EK unlikely to do double daily although it seems to still be doing well after AS dropped its partnership in favor of QR

Cathay return would be nice, but not likely short-term

Medium-term I think we could see Air India, Iberia, another LH (group) flight, etc.

SeaTacFan · Thu May 04, 2023 7:07 am

The reference to possible Iberia service out of SEA caught my eye, Another board that I read had a post a few weeks ago that Iberia flights were "in the works", but it wasn't any more specific than that, so I'm not certain how real that might or might not be. Iberia is OneWorld, so I suppose it might be possible, perhaps on a seasonal basis.

There always seems to be plenty of talk about QF in Seattle. I've got to think that will happen at some point, but as to when is anyone's guess.

A couple years ago, I saw a story out of Copenhagen that Seattle is on their top-10 wish list. Of course, SK was here for 40 years. Would love to see them back, but from what I've read, they're having some serious financial issues at the moment.

The reference to a possible LH group addition also caught my eye. Are you thinking LH to MUC, or perhaps Swiss to ZRH or Austrian to VIE? I know Munich was attempted previously, but then the pandemic hit, and I don't think it really ever had a chance to make a go of it (similar to CX on SEA-HKG).

jbs2886 · Thu May 04, 2023 1:29 pm

SeaTacFan wrote:
The reference to possible Iberia service out of SEA caught my eye, Another board that I read had a post a few weeks ago that Iberia flights were "in the works", but it wasn't any more specific than that, so I'm not certain how real that might or might not be. Iberia is OneWorld, so I suppose it might be possible, perhaps on a seasonal basis.

There always seems to be plenty of talk about QF in Seattle. I've got to think that will happen at some point, but as to when is anyone's guess.

A couple years ago, I saw a story out of Copenhagen that Seattle is on their top-10 wish list. Of course, SK was here for 40 years. Would love to see them back, but from what I've read, they're having some serious financial issues at the moment.

The reference to a possible LH group addition also caught my eye. Are you thinking LH to MUC, or perhaps Swiss to ZRH or Austrian to VIE? I know Munich was attempted previously, but then the pandemic hit, and I don't think it really ever had a chance to make a go of it (similar to CX on SEA-HKG).

SAS isn't going to happen either. Their longhaul fleet has shrunk through bankruptcy and no plans to expand it. Couple that with SEA is oneworld (although AS still partners with non-oneworld carriers, I can't see it here given Finnair).

I think LH return to MUC or Swiss are the most likely of the LH group.

I will say, crazy things happen, never would have guessed Finnair.

SeaTacFan · Sat May 06, 2023 2:23 am

You're absolutely right about crazy things happening. Several years ago, I never would have guessed Icelandair. And last year, I most definitely never would have guessed Air Tahiti Nui. And yet, here they both are.

BobRoss · Sat May 06, 2023 2:58 am

How is Avelo doing at PSC?

wedgetail737 · Sat May 06, 2023 6:27 am

Air Tahiti Nui will be starting flights between SEA and CDG next month, 2X weekly. Earlier in this post, it appears Starlux will fly between SEA and TPE, now that AS is their first US partner. In my opinion, I think SEA-MUC will come back on a seasonal basis with LH. Maybe Norse Atlantic will open SEA-LGW seasonally as well. I think there might be an outside chance of HU returning to SEA. But I don't see too much more after that.

ER757 · Sat May 06, 2023 2:54 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
Air Tahiti Nui will be starting flights between SEA and CDG next month, 2X weekly. Earlier in this post, it appears Starlux will fly between SEA and TPE, now that AS is their first US partner. In my opinion, I think SEA-MUC will come back on a seasonal basis with LH. Maybe Norse Atlantic will open SEA-LGW seasonally as well. I think there might be an outside chance of HU returning to SEA. But I don't see too much more after that.

Would love to see HU return, but with relations between the US and China as chilly as they are, that might negate the opportunity. Would be very surprised to see Norse Atlantic to LGW, there is already a lot of capacity on the Seattle/London route

jbs2886 · Sat May 06, 2023 4:50 pm

ER757 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
Air Tahiti Nui will be starting flights between SEA and CDG next month, 2X weekly. Earlier in this post, it appears Starlux will fly between SEA and TPE, now that AS is their first US partner. In my opinion, I think SEA-MUC will come back on a seasonal basis with LH. Maybe Norse Atlantic will open SEA-LGW seasonally as well. I think there might be an outside chance of HU returning to SEA. But I don't see too much more after that.

Would love to see HU return, but with relations between the US and China as chilly as they are, that might negate the opportunity. Would be very surprised to see Norse Atlantic to LGW, there is already a lot of capacity on the Seattle/London route

HU not returning opens up the possibility of other Chinese carriers.

ER757 · Sat May 06, 2023 5:03 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
Air Tahiti Nui will be starting flights between SEA and CDG next month, 2X weekly. Earlier in this post, it appears Starlux will fly between SEA and TPE, now that AS is their first US partner. In my opinion, I think SEA-MUC will come back on a seasonal basis with LH. Maybe Norse Atlantic will open SEA-LGW seasonally as well. I think there might be an outside chance of HU returning to SEA. But I don't see too much more after that.

Would love to see HU return, but with relations between the US and China as chilly as they are, that might negate the opportunity. Would be very surprised to see Norse Atlantic to LGW, there is already a lot of capacity on the Seattle/London route

HU not returning opens up the possibility of other Chinese carriers.

No direct flights to the PRC is certainly a gaping hole in SEA's list of destinations - I have to think a flight to PVG or PEK could be supported. Would be really cool to see maybe CA here

ScroogeMcDuck · Sat May 06, 2023 6:27 pm

ER757 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Would love to see HU return, but with relations between the US and China as chilly as they are, that might negate the opportunity. Would be very surprised to see Norse Atlantic to LGW, there is already a lot of capacity on the Seattle/London route

HU not returning opens up the possibility of other Chinese carriers.

No direct flights to the PRC is certainly a gaping hole in SEA's list of destinations - I have to think a flight to PVG or PEK could be supported. Would be really cool to see maybe CA here

DL is currently flying SEA-PVG. It may only be twice weekly, but that's all the US and Chinese governments are allowing right now.

wedgetail737 · Sat May 06, 2023 7:22 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
Air Tahiti Nui will be starting flights between SEA and CDG next month, 2X weekly. Earlier in this post, it appears Starlux will fly between SEA and TPE, now that AS is their first US partner. In my opinion, I think SEA-MUC will come back on a seasonal basis with LH. Maybe Norse Atlantic will open SEA-LGW seasonally as well. I think there might be an outside chance of HU returning to SEA. But I don't see too much more after that.

Would love to see HU return, but with relations between the US and China as chilly as they are, that might negate the opportunity. Would be very surprised to see Norse Atlantic to LGW, there is already a lot of capacity on the Seattle/London route

HU not returning opens up the possibility of other Chinese carriers.

SEA has seen two PRC carriers come and go...Hainan and Xiamen. But if HU decided not to return to SEA, it would be interesting to see if anything PRC would come back considering the pollitical environment these days.

There was already a lot of capacity between Seattle and London when Norwegian flew the route. That's the only reason why I brought that up.

cruisezone · Mon May 08, 2023 6:20 pm

BobRoss wrote:
How is Avelo doing at PSC?

According to Port of Pasco stats, Avelo's load factors have been: Jan2023/87%; Feb2023/84%; Mar2023/91%

717atOGG · Fri May 12, 2023 5:45 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Would love to see HU return, but with relations between the US and China as chilly as they are, that might negate the opportunity. Would be very surprised to see Norse Atlantic to LGW, there is already a lot of capacity on the Seattle/London route

HU not returning opens up the possibility of other Chinese carriers.

SEA has seen two PRC carriers come and go...Hainan and Xiamen. But if HU decided not to return to SEA, it would be interesting to see if anything PRC would come back considering the pollitical environment these days.

There was already a lot of capacity between Seattle and London when Norwegian flew the route. That's the only reason why I brought that up.

On the domestic side of things, G4 seems to have been successful out of PDX so far flying unserved P2P routes like GRR/DSM/ATW so I could easily see them replicating that out of SEA, with cities like PVU/DSM/GRR/ATW/MEM being good initial contenders.

Elsewhere, in addition to what's been already said I could see WS Encore maybe adding a seasonal SEA-YYJ or YLW given their recent transborder expansion, and it wouldn't surprise me to see AS returning to SEA-MZT or starting SEA-SJO with one of their MAX 8s.

jbs2886 · Fri May 12, 2023 5:50 pm

717atOGG wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

HU not returning opens up the possibility of other Chinese carriers.

SEA has seen two PRC carriers come and go...Hainan and Xiamen. But if HU decided not to return to SEA, it would be interesting to see if anything PRC would come back considering the pollitical environment these days.

There was already a lot of capacity between Seattle and London when Norwegian flew the route. That's the only reason why I brought that up.

On the domestic side of things, G4 seems to have been successful out of PDX so far flying unserved P2P routes like GRR/DSM/ATW so I could easily see them replicating that out of SEA, with cities like PVU/DSM/GRR/ATW/MEM being good initial contenders.

Elsewhere, in addition to what's been already said I could see WS Encore maybe adding a seasonal SEA-YYJ or YLW given their recent transborder expansion, and it wouldn't surprise me to see AS returning to SEA-MZT or starting SEA-SJO with one of their MAX 8s.

Allegiant seems to want to stick to Bellingham rather than fight it out in SEA (don't blame them).

717atOGG · Fri May 12, 2023 6:24 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:

SEA has seen two PRC carriers come and go...Hainan and Xiamen. But if HU decided not to return to SEA, it would be interesting to see if anything PRC would come back considering the pollitical environment these days.

There was already a lot of capacity between Seattle and London when Norwegian flew the route. That's the only reason why I brought that up.

On the domestic side of things, G4 seems to have been successful out of PDX so far flying unserved P2P routes like GRR/DSM/ATW so I could easily see them replicating that out of SEA, with cities like PVU/DSM/GRR/ATW/MEM being good initial contenders.

Elsewhere, in addition to what's been already said I could see WS Encore maybe adding a seasonal SEA-YYJ or YLW given their recent transborder expansion, and it wouldn't surprise me to see AS returning to SEA-MZT or starting SEA-SJO with one of their MAX 8s.

Allegiant seems to want to stick to Bellingham rather than fight it out in SEA (don't blame them).

It's entirely possible that they choose to stay at BLI given SEA's relatively lackluster ULCC presence. That being said, I still wouldn't rule out them adding SEA since they've been able to coexist in both the major and secondary airports in certain cities (BOS/PSM, EWR/SWF, PHX/AZA, MDW/RFD, etc), and some of these unserved routes like DSM/GRR are ripe for the picking.

jplatts · Fri May 12, 2023 8:14 pm

717atOGG wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
On the domestic side of things, G4 seems to have been successful out of PDX so far flying unserved P2P routes like GRR/DSM/ATW so I could easily see them replicating that out of SEA, with cities like PVU/DSM/GRR/ATW/MEM being good initial contenders.

Elsewhere, in addition to what's been already said I could see WS Encore maybe adding a seasonal SEA-YYJ or YLW given their recent transborder expansion, and it wouldn't surprise me to see AS returning to SEA-MZT or starting SEA-SJO with one of their MAX 8s.

Allegiant seems to want to stick to Bellingham rather than fight it out in SEA (don't blame them).

It's entirely possible that they choose to stay at BLI given SEA's relatively lackluster ULCC presence. That being said, I still wouldn't rule out them adding SEA since they've been able to coexist in both the major and secondary airports in certain cities (BOS/PSM, EWR/SWF, PHX/AZA, MDW/RFD, etc), and some of these unserved routes like DSM/GRR are ripe for the picking.

BLI is obviously in a separate market from SEA/PAE with BLI being 94 miles from Downtown Seattle and with Bellingham, WA being in a separate primary statistical area from that of the Seattle-Tacoma Combined Statistical Area (which includes the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metropolitan Statistical Area).

I had also asked the question of whether AS is likely to add service to destinations such as ORF, BDL, or TUL over in a discussion at viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1483421.

jbs2886 · Fri May 12, 2023 8:18 pm

jplatts wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Allegiant seems to want to stick to Bellingham rather than fight it out in SEA (don't blame them).

It's entirely possible that they choose to stay at BLI given SEA's relatively lackluster ULCC presence. That being said, I still wouldn't rule out them adding SEA since they've been able to coexist in both the major and secondary airports in certain cities (BOS/PSM, EWR/SWF, PHX/AZA, MDW/RFD, etc), and some of these unserved routes like DSM/GRR are ripe for the picking.

BLI is obviously in a separate market from SEA/PAE with BLI being 94 miles from Downtown Seattle and with Bellingham, WA being in a separate primary statistical area from that of the Seattle-Tacoma Combined Statistical Area (which includes the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metropolitan Statistical Area).

I had also asked the question of whether AS is likely to add service to destinations such as ORF, BDL, or TUL over in a discussion at viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1483421.

This shows a complete lack of understanding of the Seattle geography to say it is "obviously" a separate market. There is a substantial portion of the Seattle area population that is north of Seattle for which BLI is not inconvenient. No, its unlikely those in Tacoma are going up to BLI, but to dismiss the overlap so flagrantly is inappropriate. I'd also note the bus shuttle that runs from Seattle to BLI.

wedgetail737 · Sat May 13, 2023 2:48 am

jbs2886 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
It's entirely possible that they choose to stay at BLI given SEA's relatively lackluster ULCC presence. That being said, I still wouldn't rule out them adding SEA since they've been able to coexist in both the major and secondary airports in certain cities (BOS/PSM, EWR/SWF, PHX/AZA, MDW/RFD, etc), and some of these unserved routes like DSM/GRR are ripe for the picking.

BLI is obviously in a separate market from SEA/PAE with BLI being 94 miles from Downtown Seattle and with Bellingham, WA being in a separate primary statistical area from that of the Seattle-Tacoma Combined Statistical Area (which includes the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metropolitan Statistical Area).

I had also asked the question of whether AS is likely to add service to destinations such as ORF, BDL, or TUL over in a discussion at viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1483421.

This shows a complete lack of understanding of the Seattle geography to say it is "obviously" a separate market. There is a substantial portion of the Seattle area population that is north of Seattle for which BLI is not inconvenient. No, its unlikely those in Tacoma are going up to BLI, but to dismiss the overlap so flagrantly is inappropriate. I'd also note the bus shuttle that runs from Seattle to BLI.

Agreed...you would be surprised how many people will drive north to BLI for flights, especially if you live north of Everett, WA.

frmrCapCadet · Sat May 13, 2023 1:17 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

BLI is obviously in a separate market from SEA/PAE with BLI being 94 miles from Downtown Seattle and with Bellingham, WA being in a separate primary statistical area from that of the Seattle-Tacoma Combined Statistical Area (which includes the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metropolitan Statistical Area).

I had also asked the question of whether AS is likely to add service to destinations such as ORF, BDL, or TUL over in a discussion at viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1483421.

This shows a complete lack of understanding of the Seattle geography to say it is "obviously" a separate market. There is a substantial portion of the Seattle area population that is north of Seattle for which BLI is not inconvenient. No, its unlikely those in Tacoma are going up to BLI, but to dismiss the overlap so flagrantly is inappropriate. I'd also note the bus shuttle that runs from Seattle to BLI.

Agreed...you would be surprised how many people will drive north to BLI for flights, especially if you live north of Everett, WA.

Indeed if you are north of Everett, and on the east side of the Puget Sound.

wedgetail737 · Sat May 13, 2023 4:30 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

This shows a complete lack of understanding of the Seattle geography to say it is "obviously" a separate market. There is a substantial portion of the Seattle area population that is north of Seattle for which BLI is not inconvenient. No, its unlikely those in Tacoma are going up to BLI, but to dismiss the overlap so flagrantly is inappropriate. I'd also note the bus shuttle that runs from Seattle to BLI.

Agreed...you would be surprised how many people will drive north to BLI for flights, especially if you live north of Everett, WA.

Indeed if you are north of Everett, and on the east side of the Puget Sound.

I'll have to admit, I have no good case to travel out of BLI, especially with the convenience of PAE.

leftcoast8 · Sun May 14, 2023 6:44 pm

ScroogeMcDuck wrote:
DL is currently flying SEA-PVG. It may only be twice weekly, but that's all the US and Chinese governments are allowing right now.

Haven't heard about this. Is there a news article discussing the bilateral restrictions?

With HNA Group's collapse and Chen Feng's arrest, I don't think HU is ever coming back to Sea-Tac (or YVR).

wedgetail737 · Sun May 14, 2023 7:40 pm

leftcoast8 wrote:
ScroogeMcDuck wrote:
DL is currently flying SEA-PVG. It may only be twice weekly, but that's all the US and Chinese governments are allowing right now.

Haven't heard about this. Is there a news article discussing the bilateral restrictions?

With HNA Group's collapse and Chen Feng's arrest, I don't think HU is ever coming back to Sea-Tac (or YVR).

Well with HU out the game, I guess whenever PRC and the US have better relations, maybe another Chinese carrier will give SEA a try.

ScroogeMcDuck · Sun May 14, 2023 10:33 pm

leftcoast8 wrote:
ScroogeMcDuck wrote:
DL is currently flying SEA-PVG. It may only be twice weekly, but that's all the US and Chinese governments are allowing right now.

Haven't heard about this. Is there a news article discussing the bilateral restrictions?

Here's a fairly recent summary by Simple Flying: http://simpleflying.com/chinese-airlines-increase-us-flights-may-2023/

Stitch · Tue May 16, 2023 2:44 pm

Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Gov. Jay Inslee on Monday signed into law a bill winding down a state commission that produced the shortlist of potential locations. A plan to recommend a single site by next month is also now dead.

After a ferocious backlash from the communities at the three shortlisted sites and at another near Enumclaw in King County studied separately, all four locations are now off the table.

jplatts · Tue May 16, 2023 2:57 pm

Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Gov. Jay Inslee on Monday signed into law a bill winding down a state commission that produced the shortlist of potential locations. A plan to recommend a single site by next month is also now dead.

After a ferocious backlash from the communities at the three shortlisted sites and at another near Enumclaw in King County studied separately, all four locations are now off the table.

Will demand in the Greater Seattle market reach a point where either (a) BFI or RNT need to be opened up to commercial service, (b) restrictions at PAE need to be loosened, or (c) a third commercial airport be opened up at SEA?

AS can also add nonstop service out of PDX to more destinations, which would reduce the amount of passengers who would need to connect through SEA.

Western727 · Tue May 16, 2023 3:47 pm

Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Gov. Jay Inslee on Monday signed into law a bill winding down a state commission that produced the shortlist of potential locations. A plan to recommend a single site by next month is also now dead.

After a ferocious backlash from the communities at the three shortlisted sites and at another near Enumclaw in King County studied separately, all four locations are now off the table.

The saga continues. It just feels like a neverending journey. I remember hearing about this way back in the 1980s when growing up in Seattle...

ER757 · Tue May 16, 2023 4:42 pm

Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Gov. Jay Inslee on Monday signed into law a bill winding down a state commission that produced the shortlist of potential locations. A plan to recommend a single site by next month is also now dead.

After a ferocious backlash from the communities at the three shortlisted sites and at another near Enumclaw in King County studied separately, all four locations are now off the table.

Not the least bit surprised. Nothing gets done in anything close to a timely manner in this state. I will be long gone before a new airport opens anywhere near here. I think the only hope for relief at SEA is if PAE would allow more flights, but I won't hold my breath. As for BFI, the locals had their torches and pitchforks out when WN floated the idea about a decade ago, can't imagine they'd be more welcoming now

TheZ · Tue May 16, 2023 5:00 pm

Add me to the list of people who are disappointed but not at all surprised. There's a reason our infrastructure is decades behind where it should be.

HPRamper · Tue May 16, 2023 6:21 pm

jplatts wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Gov. Jay Inslee on Monday signed into law a bill winding down a state commission that produced the shortlist of potential locations. A plan to recommend a single site by next month is also now dead.

After a ferocious backlash from the communities at the three shortlisted sites and at another near Enumclaw in King County studied separately, all four locations are now off the table.

Will demand in the Greater Seattle market reach a point where either (a) BFI or RNT need to be opened up to commercial service, (b) restrictions at PAE need to be loosened, or (c) a third commercial airport be opened up at SEA?

AS can also add nonstop service out of PDX to more destinations, which would reduce the amount of passengers who would need to connect through SEA.

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

DFW17L · Tue May 16, 2023 8:23 pm

Can't say I'm not surprised. Sounds like alternatives using existing facilities have been considered. Looks like new infrastructure is a must. The picture in the ST showing the security queues says it all.

frmrCapCadet · Tue May 16, 2023 8:32 pm

ER757 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Gov. Jay Inslee on Monday signed into law a bill winding down a state commission that produced the shortlist of potential locations. A plan to recommend a single site by next month is also now dead.

After a ferocious backlash from the communities at the three shortlisted sites and at another near Enumclaw in King County studied separately, all four locations are now off the table.

Not the least bit surprised. Nothing gets done in anything close to a timely manner in this state. I will be long gone before a new airport opens anywhere near here. I think the only hope for relief at SEA is if PAE would allow more flights, but I won't hold my breath. As for BFI, the locals had their torches and pitchforks out when WN floated the idea about a decade ago, can't imagine they'd be more welcoming now

This was about the most predictable result of that report. I still think that, although Bremerton would be a lousy place for a new Puget Sound Airport the State should get options on enough of the forest land surrounding that airport to ensure it would be available at reasonable cost in the future.

IIRC, at the time WN using BFI was hoping to have cheaper landside fees to escape the higher fees at SeaTac. It was a silly initiative. Still, BFI probably would be a good alternative relief field, maybe even inevitable. Planes meeting new noise standards and with a couple hundred land/take off slots along with facilitated land transit to downtown and to SeaTac could provide a good deal of relief.

717atOGG · Tue May 16, 2023 8:36 pm

HPRamper wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Will demand in the Greater Seattle market reach a point where either (a) BFI or RNT need to be opened up to commercial service, (b) restrictions at PAE need to be loosened, or (c) a third commercial airport be opened up at SEA?

AS can also add nonstop service out of PDX to more destinations, which would reduce the amount of passengers who would need to connect through SEA.

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

FWIW, the PAE master plan shows some potential terminal expansion blueprints, though when that would happen is an open question. I'm a bit surprised that no one new has come to PAE since UA left, but then again sharing 2 gates with the already-sizable AS operation might be tough. BLI also has space with a 5-gate passenger terminal that only sees ~12 flights a day max between AS/WN/G4, though its distance from Seattle will likely render it to solely being a niche airport, similar to how SWF/HPN/ISP have struggled as NYC reliever airports.

https://www.heraldnet.com/news/final-dr ... y-to-view/
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/paine-fi ... -terminal/

BoeingGuy · Tue May 16, 2023 8:36 pm

HPRamper wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Plans for a new regional airport to support SEA are now dead: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... he-future/

Will demand in the Greater Seattle market reach a point where either (a) BFI or RNT need to be opened up to commercial service, (b) restrictions at PAE need to be loosened, or (c) a third commercial airport be opened up at SEA?

AS can also add nonstop service out of PDX to more destinations, which would reduce the amount of passengers who would need to connect through SEA.

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

jbs2886 · Tue May 16, 2023 8:38 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
jplatts wrote:

Will demand in the Greater Seattle market reach a point where either (a) BFI or RNT need to be opened up to commercial service, (b) restrictions at PAE need to be loosened, or (c) a third commercial airport be opened up at SEA?

AS can also add nonstop service out of PDX to more destinations, which would reduce the amount of passengers who would need to connect through SEA.

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

405 can definitely handle more traffic, too! /s

Not surprised this is the result, its politically difficult to support any of the reasonable proposals. The best hope is SeaTac continuing to think creatively, PAE expansion, and maybe some shifting of cargo to BFI/PAE.

ER757 · Tue May 16, 2023 9:18 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
HPRamper wrote:

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

405 can definitely handle more traffic, too! /s

Not surprised this is the result, its politically difficult to support any of the reasonable proposals. The best hope is SeaTac continuing to think creatively, PAE expansion, and maybe some shifting of cargo to BFI/PAE.

I had a good laugh at your 405 comment. Priceless.
DHL was over at BFI for a while but went back to SEA several years ago. UPS remains the major cargo operator at BFI. I could see most cargo going over to BFI eventually in order to allow terminal expansion at SEA.
I still say joint commercial/military operations at McChord is viable.

CowAnon · Wed May 17, 2023 12:49 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
jplatts wrote:

Will demand in the Greater Seattle market reach a point where either (a) BFI or RNT need to be opened up to commercial service, (b) restrictions at PAE need to be loosened, or (c) a third commercial airport be opened up at SEA?

AS can also add nonstop service out of PDX to more destinations, which would reduce the amount of passengers who would need to connect through SEA.

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

Renton's tiny footprint and runway are still a little larger than for London City Airport. LCY hosted 5.1 million passengers in 2019.

jbs2886 · Wed May 17, 2023 1:03 am

CowAnon wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
HPRamper wrote:

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

Renton's tiny footprint and runway are still a little larger than for London City Airport. LCY hosted 5.1 million passengers in 2019.

That footprint has a major manufacturing facility on it and isn’t a long-term solution to being a SEA-sized facility, which is the issue at hand.

BoeingGuy · Wed May 17, 2023 1:35 am

CowAnon wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
HPRamper wrote:

a) no. King County pushed back heavily on WN's attempt to open BFI. RNT is set up badly for commercial service.
b) yes
c) the least likely scenario unless it's expansion of OLM or something

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

Renton's tiny footprint and runway are still a little larger than for London City Airport. LCY hosted 5.1 million passengers in 2019.

Where does LCY manage to fit the busy airplane factory and flightline to go with those 5,100,000 passengers?

CowAnon · Fri May 19, 2023 5:26 am

The TNT had another article about the airport issues today::

Commission studying new WA airport still could recommend site, despite Inslee's wishes
Story by Shea Johnson, The News Tribune (Tacoma, Wash.)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/commission-studying-new-wa-airport-still-could-recommend-site-despite-inslees-wishes/ar-AA1bmUja

jbs2886 wrote:
CowAnon wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

RTN’s runway is too short for much meaningful service. Not much room for a terminal either.

Renton's tiny footprint and runway are still a little larger than for London City Airport. LCY hosted 5.1 million passengers in 2019.

That footprint has a major manufacturing facility on it and isn’t a long-term solution to being a SEA-sized facility, which is the issue at hand.

Since a greenfield airport is off the table, the issue now is to cobble together enough capacity from existing airports to make up for the projected capacity shortfall, according to the governor (from the older Seattle Times article):

Further indicating the radical shift away from the previous plan, Inslee vetoed a section of the bill that directed the new working group to simultaneously consider both building on a new greenfield site and expanding existing airports.

In his letter to the Legislature, Inslee stipulated that "it is important for the state to first fully consider increasing capacity at existing airports throughout the state, excluding SeaTac, before it considers siting a new airport."

BoeingGuy wrote:
Where does LCY manage to fit the busy airplane factory and flightline to go with those 5,100,000 passengers?

How long do we expect the airplane factory and flightline to remain at RNT?

I'm not proposing that Renton be the major secondary airport in the region. I think the Seattle area's future will resemble the current situation in the Los Angeles metro area, where there are 4+ minor commercial airports adding capacity, but the combined amount of passenger traffic is still smaller than that of the main airport.

Western727 · Fri May 19, 2023 3:44 pm

CowAnon wrote:
The TNT had another article about the airport issues today::

Commission studying new WA airport still could recommend site, despite Inslee's wishes
Story by Shea Johnson, The News Tribune (Tacoma, Wash.)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/commission-studying-new-wa-airport-still-could-recommend-site-despite-inslees-wishes/ar-AA1bmUja

jbs2886 wrote:
CowAnon wrote:
Renton's tiny footprint and runway are still a little larger than for London City Airport. LCY hosted 5.1 million passengers in 2019.

That footprint has a major manufacturing facility on it and isn’t a long-term solution to being a SEA-sized facility, which is the issue at hand.

Since a greenfield airport is off the table, the issue now is to cobble together enough capacity from existing airports to make up for the projected capacity shortfall, according to the governor (from the older Seattle Times article):

Further indicating the radical shift away from the previous plan, Inslee vetoed a section of the bill that directed the new working group to simultaneously consider both building on a new greenfield site and expanding existing airports.

In his letter to the Legislature, Inslee stipulated that "it is important for the state to first fully consider increasing capacity at existing airports throughout the state, excluding SeaTac, before it considers siting a new airport."

BoeingGuy wrote:
Where does LCY manage to fit the busy airplane factory and flightline to go with those 5,100,000 passengers?

How long do we expect the airplane factory and flightline to remain at RNT?

I'm not proposing that Renton be the major secondary airport in the region. I think the Seattle area's future will resemble the current situation in the Los Angeles metro area, where there are 4+ minor commercial airports adding capacity, but the combined amount of passenger traffic is still smaller than that of the main airport.

As a Seattle native I struggle with RNT, tho. It feels too close to SEA at only a 10-minute drive, excluding traffic. A quick look at Google Maps shows that they're just under 4 miles apart by bird. It feels like it'd do the population of Tacoma and the surrounding region a disservice. My view therefore remains that JBLM is the best (albeit not a perfect) answer.

LAX's other airports are all further away and therefore do a nice job of capturing a greater share of the regional population footprint than SEA/RNT would.

wedgetail737 · Fri May 19, 2023 3:58 pm

I think the South Sound needs a new commercial airport than any of the other surrounding regions. I don't think there is a need for another commercial airport close to SEA. If anything, BFI would be the better option than RNT.

MIflyer12 · Fri May 19, 2023 5:45 pm

It's too bad that Inslee - NOT running for re-election - wouldn't put some political heft behind a solution. Nobody running for election or re-election will touch this: there are no good solutions, just some that are less bad than others give regional topography, weather, traffic, and population density. Somebody is going to have to break a lot of eggs to make some mayonnaise.

HPRamper · Fri May 19, 2023 8:45 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I think the South Sound needs a new commercial airport than any of the other surrounding regions. I don't think there is a need for another commercial airport close to SEA. If anything, BFI would be the better option than RNT.

Seattle proper is the heavy dividing line for travel time. Nobody wants to drive lengthwise across the city to go to the airport - any airport. PAE passenger service exists literally because enough market wants to avoid driving to SEA. If PAE had a logical amount of flights, it could effectively capture everything north of Seattle and into downtown, while letting that decreased flow southward benefit SEA and South Sound travelers. PAE has extensive open land for building terminals and parking and pretty easy access to I-5 via the Boeing Freeway and the Speedway.

As part of that though, I'd also suggest JBLM open as an industrial airport - cargo and maintenance facilities. The federal government and DoD might be more apt to approve joint ops if those additional operations didn't involve civilian passenger traffic. PAE would also be suitable for cargo with its nice long runway. I think BFI is best left to Boeing, UPS and the GA and flight training that's already there.

QXAS · Fri May 19, 2023 10:15 pm

So SEA is just going to continue to get more and more packed. I don’t think anything other than a greenfield to outright replace SEA would work. At this point, even if every airline that isn’t AS or DL transfers their ops to another location SeaTac would still be packed. WN, B6, NK, F9, HA, SY, and UA are margin of error at SEA. So unless AS or DL are willing to draw down their operations, and cede real estate, which they aren’t, opening a terminal at OLM won’t have any meaningful effect. Just as PAE doesn’t have any meaningful effect now. Seattle has to go full scale greenfield replacement.

The secondary airports that see meaningful service are the ones more convenient to the city centers. Think MDW, HOU, DAL. FLL and the LA area airports make sense because of the outrageous size of their respective metros. The Seattle Metro is 56% the size of South Florida.

Obviously building a greenfield facility capable of handling 50+ million passengers is political suicide. So Jay Inslee is the perfect guy to get it done considering he’s not running again.

717atOGG · Fri May 19, 2023 10:30 pm

QXAS wrote:
So SEA is just going to continue to get more and more packed. I don’t think anything other than a greenfield to outright replace SEA would work. At this point, even if every airline that isn’t AS or DL transfers their ops to another location SeaTac would still be packed. WN, B6, NK, F9, HA, SY, and UA are margin of error at SEA. So unless AS or DL are willing to draw down their operations, and cede real estate, which they aren’t, opening a terminal at OLM won’t have any meaningful effect. Just as PAE doesn’t have any meaningful effect now. Seattle has to go full scale greenfield replacement.

The secondary airports that see meaningful service are the ones more convenient to the city centers. Think MDW, HOU, DAL. FLL and the LA area airports make sense because of the outrageous size of their respective metros. The Seattle Metro is 56% the size of South Florida.

Obviously building a greenfield facility capable of handling 50+ million passengers is political suicide. So Jay Inslee is the perfect guy to get it done. He’s not running again, and he could chop down the entire Mt Baker forest and his party would still keep its hold on Olympia.

Has there been any updates on a potential terminal expansion north of D? It seems like there'd be enough space there especially if FedEx/Prime Air relocate to PAE, and it's better than nothing for now.

QXAS · Sat May 20, 2023 12:04 am

717atOGG wrote:
QXAS wrote:
So SEA is just going to continue to get more and more packed. I don’t think anything other than a greenfield to outright replace SEA would work. At this point, even if every airline that isn’t AS or DL transfers their ops to another location SeaTac would still be packed. WN, B6, NK, F9, HA, SY, and UA are margin of error at SEA. So unless AS or DL are willing to draw down their operations, and cede real estate, which they aren’t, opening a terminal at OLM won’t have any meaningful effect. Just as PAE doesn’t have any meaningful effect now. Seattle has to go full scale greenfield replacement.

The secondary airports that see meaningful service are the ones more convenient to the city centers. Think MDW, HOU, DAL. FLL and the LA area airports make sense because of the outrageous size of their respective metros. The Seattle Metro is 56% the size of South Florida.

Obviously building a greenfield facility capable of handling 50+ million passengers is political suicide. So Jay Inslee is the perfect guy to get it done. He’s not running again, and he could chop down the entire Mt Baker forest and his party would still keep its hold on Olympia.

Has there been any updates on a potential terminal expansion north of D? It seems like there'd be enough space there especially if FedEx/Prime Air relocate to PAE, and it's better than nothing for now.

That’s the plan. New terminal where the Doug Fox lot is to open by 2027. Now that’s probably been pushed back by the modifications that need to be made at A. I’d be surprised if it opened by the end of the decade.

Prost · Sat May 20, 2023 1:53 am

I’d like to see the garage and ticketing lobby be built on the east side of Inter’l Blvd and then a skybridge over to two parallel concourses where the current garage and terminal stand.

HPRamper · Sat May 20, 2023 2:01 am

717atOGG wrote:
QXAS wrote:
So SEA is just going to continue to get more and more packed. I don’t think anything other than a greenfield to outright replace SEA would work. At this point, even if every airline that isn’t AS or DL transfers their ops to another location SeaTac would still be packed. WN, B6, NK, F9, HA, SY, and UA are margin of error at SEA. So unless AS or DL are willing to draw down their operations, and cede real estate, which they aren’t, opening a terminal at OLM won’t have any meaningful effect. Just as PAE doesn’t have any meaningful effect now. Seattle has to go full scale greenfield replacement.

The secondary airports that see meaningful service are the ones more convenient to the city centers. Think MDW, HOU, DAL. FLL and the LA area airports make sense because of the outrageous size of their respective metros. The Seattle Metro is 56% the size of South Florida.

Obviously building a greenfield facility capable of handling 50+ million passengers is political suicide. So Jay Inslee is the perfect guy to get it done. He’s not running again, and he could chop down the entire Mt Baker forest and his party would still keep its hold on Olympia.

Has there been any updates on a potential terminal expansion north of D? It seems like there'd be enough space there especially if FedEx/Prime Air relocate to PAE, and it's better than nothing for now.

FedEx shuttered a sparkling PAE facility to consolidate at SEA. PAE is too far north to feasibly work for anything south of Seattle - Seattle traffic is the entire reason FedEx spent millions on opening PAE in the first place. It wouldn't matter for Prime, because time sensitive isn't their game. FedEx is, for better or worse, still attempting to hang their hat on morning delivery service.

HPRamper · Sat May 20, 2023 2:03 am

QXAS wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
QXAS wrote:
So SEA is just going to continue to get more and more packed. I don’t think anything other than a greenfield to outright replace SEA would work. At this point, even if every airline that isn’t AS or DL transfers their ops to another location SeaTac would still be packed. WN, B6, NK, F9, HA, SY, and UA are margin of error at SEA. So unless AS or DL are willing to draw down their operations, and cede real estate, which they aren’t, opening a terminal at OLM won’t have any meaningful effect. Just as PAE doesn’t have any meaningful effect now. Seattle has to go full scale greenfield replacement.

The secondary airports that see meaningful service are the ones more convenient to the city centers. Think MDW, HOU, DAL. FLL and the LA area airports make sense because of the outrageous size of their respective metros. The Seattle Metro is 56% the size of South Florida.

Obviously building a greenfield facility capable of handling 50+ million passengers is political suicide. So Jay Inslee is the perfect guy to get it done. He’s not running again, and he could chop down the entire Mt Baker forest and his party would still keep its hold on Olympia.

Has there been any updates on a potential terminal expansion north of D? It seems like there'd be enough space there especially if FedEx/Prime Air relocate to PAE, and it's better than nothing for now.

That’s the plan. New terminal where the Doug Fox lot is to open by 2027. Now that’s probably been pushed back by the modifications that need to be made at A. I’d be surprised if it opened by the end of the decade.

I'd put money on a zero percent chance of it happening even by the end of the decade. They can't even get a single trunk light rail line done in Seattle without going over plan by ten years.

BobRoss · Sat May 20, 2023 5:44 am

HPRamper wrote:
e wrote:
As part of that though, I'd also suggest JBLM open as an industrial airport - cargo and maintenance facilities. The federal government and DoD might be more apt to approve joint ops if those additional operations didn't involve civilian passenger traffic. PAE would also be suitable for cargo with its nice long runway. I think BFI is best left to Boeing, UPS and the GA and flight training that's already there.

Yes. Amazon already does this in SoCal at March ARB. For any meaningful growth to happen in SEA, all of the cargo needs to be moved off field.

If it were up to me, I would eminent domain all of the land east of SEA between Int'l Blvd all the way east to I-5 from basically 188th up to 405(518). There's your new airport. McMicken Heights Int'l.

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