Not sure that's really the case though...Seeing as the NEO is basically what is being sold there are two models with max ranges of upwards of 5000nm (starting at MZFW) up to 7200 and 8100nm. the 787-10 has a MZFW range of ~4000nm and goes up to 6400nm pax only. Its difficult to say that the impact would be on the A330 when the 781 model clearly plays more in that range space (4700nm).
What else would airlines buy if there were no XLR?
It would have been 330-800/900 and 788/789, and airlines would just have abused them or maybe not run as many frequencies. 781 is pretty big for MOM, at it's MZFW weight it's hauling a lot of cargo which the XLR can't, I doubt many airlines would seriously be comparing A321XLR with 781 especially with its upcoming MTOW increase.
Plus the 787 seems to be selling fine. Yes - I'm sure XLR has taken some sales from it, but it(787) has a really healthy backlog. You can't say the same thing about the 330.
Wait so you are saying 2.1x the capacity but 2x the range is definitely the same market but 2.35 x the cabin capacity and 1.5x the range is definitely not in the same market when compared to an aircraft which hasn’t had an increase in capacity but has in range? How convenient that your metrics also confirm a previously held belief…
Out of curiosity, how many 787-10s have been ordered since the XLR launch?
We will also ignore the 1,400 A330's MOM's that were sold. A large chunk of that replacement will go to XLR but would have gone to A330NEO if it had never existed.
Indeed, am even larger chunk may well have gone towards an aircraft that operates more within the same range space. Unless of course you think the A330NEO is better suited to the short range TATL sectors than the B781 and so the orders would otherwise have gone to airbus?
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Ok then if that is your argument. I'm sure Boeing will be happy to replace all current A330's with 787's, and the XLR won't replace any of those frames(the 330's). No one will ever order another 788/789(unless they need the range) or 338/339 as they don't have the best "Economics". 781 with it's MTOW boost will be take 99% of the small widebody market.
Of course that won't happen and as you know best economics for a given range are not the only deciding factor in a fleet purchase. Purchase price and things like - having similar planes in the fleet, with common cockpits matter. NAV costs matter, landing fees, etc.. The economics of the 330NEO don't seem to be that far off 787.
But as I said up top if the A321XLR did not exist, A330 NEO could have gotten another 150ish orders as one would assume sales would skew more to Airbus as more Airbus customers, and maybe 100 787's. Maybe it would have been 200 787 and 100 A330 - but that's my point - XLR has hurt both, 330NEO can less afford it given its weaker backlog, IMO.
Depending on how many 781's UA will take out of its first 100 probably somewhere around 70-80, were ordered since XLR launch, with the MTOW boost I suspect more 789's will be converted to 781.
Do you also believe the XLR has had no impact on A330NEO backlog?