US Airline Q4 Earnings Discussion

UpNAWAy · Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:16 pm

The constant BK talk here as well as the general AA's operation stinks is of course not supported by the traveling publics actions.

aileron1999 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:23 pm

Perception seems to trail reality by several years in the airline business. I think American is where United was in 2017-2019. United was running a really good operation prior to the pandemic but was constantly bashed by the media. Now United is rightfully looked at as a high quality airline. American is running a very solid operation but is still not shown the respect it deserves. Conversely Southwest has been a terrible operation for years now and only after the Christmas melt down are the media beginning to report problems at the airline.

Eric

cledaybuck · Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:24 pm

Southwest lost $220 million for the quarter with a pretax hit of $800 million due to the holiday meltdown.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/southwe ... -2022.html

MLIAA · Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:47 pm

[*]

UpNAWAy wrote:
Flew more flights than anyone by a large margin and had the highest load factor for the quarter at 84%.

And yet reported a profit roughly 20% less than Delta and United.

UpNAWAy · Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:54 pm

My notes from the Financial Call this morning:

AA took the poorest 5% of flying (Both long-haul and short haul) in 2022 and moved that capacity to the top 5%. That is a major network overall the equivalent of a large hub worth of flying.
Classic corporate biz travel is down 60% and Vasu said that the expectation is that is the new norm, not building a plan around this demand returning.
Small non contracted biz travel and blended leisure/biz travel is growing significantly.
Sitting (maintenance/training etc) more aircraft in 1st quarter than previously to be ready for full summer flying.
1st qtr bookings first 3 weeks are a record for the period. Leisure travelers are booking further out.
More booking coming in through owned distribution channels, now at 60% of total. Also 70% of those end up buying a upgraded fare/product and not just the cheapest fair.
Hiring: 2000, new mainline pilots this year. Pay raises at regionals has stopped drain there. Hired over 40k employees across all groups last 2 years. Still hiring as needed.
Regional cuts strategy, unfortunate having to reduce service. Working hard to recruit new pilots to the industry, thinks it has settled and should slowly recover from here.

AAPilot48Heavy · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:09 pm

There is no doubt that AA has been in a perilous financial condition in recent years. I'm not saying they were knocking on the door of bankruptcy, but there were one catastrophe from it. Now, I'm really happy to see them turning things around and paying off large amounts of debt. It will buy them some breathing room and nothing but great things can come from paying down debt. With debt, you (people and companies) are nothing but a slave to the lender.

I'm rooting for AA (like all of them) to do well.

Detroit313 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:21 pm

Is debt a bad thing? You need debt to replace your fleet entirely like AA did. UA and DL still have to replace hundreds of aging 767 and 757. AA has none.

UpNAWAy · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:27 pm

AAs debt was almost entirely fleet replacement and Covid war chest, both necessary. Also that debt was financed at historically low rates. So in a lot of ways there debt was much better than what DL & UA are likely looking at going forward. They definitely got lucky from a interest rate timing standpoint and now they have great flexibility going forward being able to pay off more expensive debt as they see fit or use capital for other items.

SESGDL · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:30 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Is debt a bad thing? You need debt to replace your fleet entirely like AA did. UA and DL still have to replace hundreds of aging 767 and 757. AA has none.

DL and UA are outperforming AA with their older fleets. Correlation? Not necessarily, but there’s clearly different management approaches that have been taken with relation to fleet replacement strategies. Would AA have been in a better financial situation now had it not decided to replace hundreds and hundreds of aircraft and take on loads of debt rather than taking a more measured approach? I’m sure some would argue, yes.

Jeremy

SESGDL · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:32 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
AAs debt was almost entirely fleet replacement and Covid war chest, both necessary. Also that debt was financed at historically low rates. So in a lot of ways there debt was much better than what DL & UA are likely looking at going forward. They definitely got lucky from a interest rate timing standpoint and now they have great flexibility going forward being able to pay off more expensive debt as they see fit or use capital for other items.

This is debatable. If it was so necessary then DL and UA would’ve likely followed the same approach. During Covid each of the US3 pursued slightly different strategies and we’re still seeing how each of those will play out as things continue to return to “normal.”

Jeremy

Boof02671 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:36 pm

crj900lr wrote:
MKIAZ wrote:
Hasn't it been an open secret for awhile that AA just has the highest costs of any US airline? UA/DL run similar options with much leaner management/operations staff.
They were also the last legacy to merge, which had them paying higher wages to appease the unions.

We're kind of in this lag where prices *and costs* have jumped pretty significantly over the last two years. To assume margins will not come under pressure later as the fed is slowing the economy is foolish.

When margins come under pressure, the player with the highest costs goes first.

Ch11 would actually help AA, significantly as their issues are on the cost/debt side.
The macro picture is terrible though, companies are just now starting to announce layoffs. I know it's been covered over and over, but business travel is absolutely critical to AA. 2023/2024 is when we're going to find out, for real, what's left of business travel.

As for leisure, AA is poorly positioned for the leisure market in a recession. ULCC and LCC leisure competitors have much lower costs and better self service options/ tech. Yes, they're not as passenger friendly, but in an environment where consumers are looking to stretch budgets and AA is forced to compete on price, they will have few good options left.

Also keep in mind that pre-covid revenue numbers were *already* inflated due to the max shortage. The lack of available planes was temporarily pushing revenues up.
Also, the 321XLR in the medium term is going to threaten TATL markets which have historically had higher pricing as wide bodies were typically needed for most routes. Once the XLR enters the market, now out of BOS most markets will be within easy narrowbody range and Jetblue will no longer need AA in the NEA. Also European ULCC carriers will trash yields too.

IMO in 23 we'll see demand destruction and things will get quite difficult for AA. June 2024 puts are paying ~10-1 for a BK. I think the true odds are more like 50/50

In terms of cost savings, I could see AA outsourcing all of their stations that are staffed by mainline, except maybe the hubs, to other contractors for ticket counter/gate and ramp ops. I would expect to see Piedmont and Envoy be first in line to move into any of the stations AA needs them for. They do the same work for less cost. Hopefully it does not come to that, but it is always an option especially if they declare bankruptcy.

AA can’t outsource ramp at all the stations except hubs.

It’s against the IAM/TWU AA collective bargaining agreement.

They have to maintain 45 stations. If one is closed they have to open another one.

SESGDL · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:41 pm

LAXintl wrote:
With earnings season here, below are projected Q4 earnings (in millions) for airlines.
Delta is expected to report first, on Friday 1/13.

AAL - $376.9
ALK - $121.7
ALGT - $14.4
DAL - $859.2
HA - (-$35.5)
JBLU - $71.2
LUV - $368.1
SAVE - $4.3
SNCY - $5.8
UAL - $693.0
ULCC - $39.2

I dont know how much Fridays updated guidance from Southwest regarding their Xmas meltdown is fully baked into these analyst estimates yet.

Analyst expect full year losses at American, Hawaiian, JetBlue, and Spirit

These analyst predictions were wildly incorrect. I wonder what impact this will have on Q1 and later 2023 projections.

Jeremy

Boof02671 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:45 pm

alasizon wrote:
crj900lr wrote:
alasizon wrote:

The union contracts pretty well prohibit that.

Not if bankruptcy is declared.

Even if a CBA were to get rejected in bankruptcy, the protections over many of the outstations would still be retained in the new contract, those sort of scope changes don't majorly happen in bankruptcy negotiations.

Oh yes they do. Are at US we had our mechanic and related contract abrogated in court.

Scope language most definitely changes in Section 1113C bankruptcy negotiations as that’s how most cost savings are obtained.

LAXintl · Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:53 pm

Nice surprise annual profit for AA. Industry got a nice late of year Xmas present revenue boost thanks to Southwest debacle.

SESGDL wrote:
These analyst predictions were wildly incorrect. I wonder what impact this will have on Q1 and later 2023 projections.

Predictions are only as good as the guidance and information shared by companies. Its in the interest of companies to set the appropriate market expectations, so hopefully, they do a better job communicating. Having said that, Q4 was a bit of a surprise for many not the least the last minute revenue spill from Southwest.

ChrisPBacon · Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:25 pm

crj900lr wrote:
In terms of cost savings, I could see AA outsourcing all of their stations that are staffed by mainline, except maybe the hubs, to other contractors for ticket counter/gate and ramp ops. I would expect to see Piedmont and Envoy be first in line to move into any of the stations AA needs them for. They do the same work for less cost. Hopefully it does not come to that, but it is always an option especially if they declare bankruptcy.

That's not possible. Both the CWA and TWU /IAM contracts spell out the terms of which cities can be outsourced. AA can't unilaterally decide to outsource any work in the current contracts. The current ramp contract (which came into effect just as Covid started) actually brought some medium sized cities back from contractors. DTW ramp was one of them.

Detroit313 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:28 pm

So, net income for the 4th quarter was $827 million for AA and $828 for Delta.

Identical.

Eolesen · Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:53 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
So, net income for the 4th quarter was $827 million for AA and $828 for Delta.

Identical.

Identical revenue, but AA had to fly a lot more flights to get to that level....

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

Detroit313 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:22 pm

Eolesen wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
So, net income for the 4th quarter was $827 million for AA and $828 for Delta.

Identical.
Identical revenue, but AA had to fly a lot more flights to get to that level....

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

This is not revenue. This is profit. Their profit for the 4th quarter was identical. UA’s profit was even higher. Delta’s pre-Covid profit advantage has been completely wiped out.

JoseSalazar · Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:49 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
AAs debt was almost entirely fleet replacement and Covid war chest, both necessary. Also that debt was financed at historically low rates. So in a lot of ways their debt was much better than what DL & UA are likely looking at going forward. They definitely got lucky from a interest rate timing standpoint and now they have great flexibility going forward being able to pay off more expensive debt as they see fit or use capital for other items.

Caveat, I’m not an “AA is almost bankrupt” guy, but I keep hearing AA debt was fleet replacement and they are done with that while DL/UA are just beginning. But AA still has
~47x 772s that are ~22 years old
~48x 320s that are ~23 years old
~28x 321s that are ~22 years old
~85x 319s that are ~22-25 (and more close to that)
~74x 738s that are ~22-23 years old

They have 174 airplanes on order to replace some of that 282, close to or more than 300 considering the other older 319s I didn’t include in that 319 number above, but they will still need more, and I don’t think all their financing for their current order book is secured or locked in at various rates. I could be wrong though on that part. But I think they’ll need to order more MAX/NEO/787s in the next few years on top of the 174 on order regardless.

TL;DR: I don’t think AA is done with their fleet replacement, and needs about the same number of planes as delta currently has on order by around 2030.

EA CO AS · Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:52 pm

And AS very quietly announced the highest pretax profit margin among all U.S. carriers…

https://news.alaskaair.com/newsroom/ala ... r-results/

UpNAWAy · Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:56 pm

It is always ongoing to some degree, but they did just complete the largest fleet order in aviation history these last 4-5 years. They even mentioned they may have something to announce later this year for the end of the decade replacements that will be needed.

VS11 · Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:35 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
AAs debt was almost entirely fleet replacement and Covid war chest, both necessary. Also that debt was financed at historically low rates. So in a lot of ways their debt was much better than what DL & UA are likely looking at going forward. They definitely got lucky from a interest rate timing standpoint and now they have great flexibility going forward being able to pay off more expensive debt as they see fit or use capital for other items.

Caveat, I’m not an “AA is almost bankrupt” guy, but I keep hearing AA debt was fleet replacement and they are done with that while DL/UA are just beginning. But AA still has
~47x 772s that are ~22 years old
~48x 320s that are ~23 years old
~28x 321s that are ~22 years old
~85x 319s that are ~22-25 (and more close to that)
~74x 738s that are ~22-23 years old

They have 174 airplanes on order to replace some of that 282, close to or more than 300 considering the other older 319s I didn’t include in that 319 number above, but they will still need more, and I don’t think all their financing for their current order book is secured or locked in at various rates. I could be wrong though on that part. But I think they’ll need to order more MAX/NEO/787s in the next few years on top of the 174 on order regardless.

TL;DR: I don’t think AA is done with their fleet replacement, and needs about the same number of planes as delta currently has on order by around 2030.

They were refurbishing the 772's. Not sure where that process stands now but in 2019 I flew on one of them and they were like new, with mood lightning too. They also have 42 787's on order.

The big 2011 NB order included 200 737's (100 NG +100 MAX) and 100 options (737) with deliveries starting in 2013, in addition to 260 Airbuses (130 CEO +130 NEO) and 356 options with deliveries starting in 2013 for CEOs.

https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx

"Since 2013, American has invested more than $24 billion in modernizing our fleet by taking delivery of more than 600 new aircraft."
https://s21.q4cdn.com/616071541/files/d ... -Sheet.pdf

SESGDL · Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:37 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Eolesen wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
So, net income for the 4th quarter was $827 million for AA and $828 for Delta.

Identical.
Identical revenue, but AA had to fly a lot more flights to get to that level....

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

This is not revenue. This is profit. Their profit for the 4th quarter was identical. UA’s profit was even higher. Delta’s pre-Covid profit advantage has been completely wiped out.

UA’s adjusted net was $811.

Jeremy

SESGDL · Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:52 pm

Is someone with accounting knowledge able do a comparison now that all the majors have reported? It’s difficult to do a good analysis cause each airline reports differently.

Jeremy

sxf24 · Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:16 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Is someone with accounting knowledge able do a comparison now that all the majors have reported? It’s difficult to do a good analysis cause each airline reports differently.

Jeremy

They all report using the same accounting standards. They have slightly different non-GAAP adjustments for special items, but the metrics are all the same.

floridaflyboy · Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:21 pm

sxf24 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Is someone with accounting knowledge able do a comparison now that all the majors have reported? It’s difficult to do a good analysis cause each airline reports differently.

Jeremy

They all report using the same accounting standards. They have slightly different non-GAAP adjustments for special items, but the metrics are all the same.

True. I'd love to see how those numbers compare, relative to the size of the operation. I find it fascinating that the big 3 reported such similar 4th quarters, but of course ran variously sized operations. It would have to be someone far more organized than me, though. lol

alasizon · Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:04 pm

sxf24 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Is someone with accounting knowledge able do a comparison now that all the majors have reported? It’s difficult to do a good analysis cause each airline reports differently.

Jeremy

They all report using the same accounting standards. They have slightly different non-GAAP adjustments for special items, but the metrics are all the same.

While they all report using GAAP, where they classify certain revenues and expenses vary quite a bit to make a truly clean comparison. AA and UA are the closest on classification.

Operating Revenue/Operating Profit/Operating Margin
AA
12.131B/1.383B/11.4%
DL
13.435B/1.470B/10.94%
UA
12.400B/1.377B/11.10%

For DL, the big gap on revenue accounts for 1.142B in refinery revenue that they classify as "other operating revenue" but they don't publish the refinery profit/loss numbers separately for us to make a clean airline to airline operations comparison.

777Mech · Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:24 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Eolesen wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
So, net income for the 4th quarter was $827 million for AA and $828 for Delta.

Identical.
Identical revenue, but AA had to fly a lot more flights to get to that level....

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

This is not revenue. This is profit. Their profit for the 4th quarter was identical. UA’s profit was even higher. Delta’s pre-Covid profit advantage has been completely wiped out.

Regardless, AA had to fly a hell of a lot more flights to hit that profit than DL.

AA even bragged that they ran more flights than UA and AA, and yet still made less money than them.

SESGDL · Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:30 pm

alasizon wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Is someone with accounting knowledge able do a comparison now that all the majors have reported? It’s difficult to do a good analysis cause each airline reports differently.

Jeremy

They all report using the same accounting standards. They have slightly different non-GAAP adjustments for special items, but the metrics are all the same.

While they all report using GAAP, where they classify certain revenues and expenses vary quite a bit to make a truly clean comparison. AA and UA are the closest on classification.

Operating Revenue/Operating Profit/Operating Margin
AA
12.131B/1.383B/11.4%
DL
13.435B/1.470B/10.94%
UA
12.400B/1.377B/11.10%

For DL, the big gap on revenue accounts for 1.142B in refinery revenue that they classify as "other operating revenue" but they don't publish the refinery profit/loss numbers separately for us to make a clean airline to airline operations comparison.

Thank you! Very interesting that AA had the lowest revenues in spite of running the largest operation and with the most ASMs. Too bad DL doesn’t break out refinery profits/losses, with such a significant revenue it would be interesting to know what the actual flying operational health is and whether the refinery is continuing to drive losses (it probably is given it’s not separated).

Jeremy

alasizon · Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:42 pm

SESGDL wrote:
alasizon wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

They all report using the same accounting standards. They have slightly different non-GAAP adjustments for special items, but the metrics are all the same.

While they all report using GAAP, where they classify certain revenues and expenses vary quite a bit to make a truly clean comparison. AA and UA are the closest on classification.

Operating Revenue/Operating Profit/Operating Margin
AA
12.131B/1.383B/11.4%
DL
13.435B/1.470B/10.94%
UA
12.400B/1.377B/11.10%

For DL, the big gap on revenue accounts for 1.142B in refinery revenue that they classify as "other operating revenue" but they don't publish the refinery profit/loss numbers separately for us to make a clean airline to airline operations comparison.

Thank you! Very interesting that AA had the lowest revenues in spite of running the largest operation and with the most ASMs. Too bad DL doesn’t break out refinery profits/losses, with such a significant revenue it would be interesting to know what the actual flying operational health is and whether the refinery is continuing to drive losses (it probably is given it’s not separated).

Jeremy

On a PRASM front:
AA 18.39
DL 18.30
UA 17.42

AA's lowest revenue is mostly due to lower co-brand credit card performance and less cargo revenue than UA. Their PRASM actually leads the pack

CASM
AA 17.90
DL 20.11
UA 17.14

AA and UA actually make money flying passengers, DL isn't (of course the co-brand loyalty revenue ties into it to make DL profitable) but when you look strictly at CASM and PRASM, AA and UA are clearly beating DL.

Lpbri · Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:32 am

LAXintl wrote:
With earnings season here, below are projected Q4 earnings (in millions) for airlines.
Delta is expected to report first, on Friday 1/13.

AAL - $376.9
ALK - $121.7
ALGT - $14.4
DAL - $859.2
HA - (-$35.5)
JBLU - $71.2
LUV - $368.1
SAVE - $4.3
SNCY - $5.8
UAL - $693.0
ULCC - $39.2

I dont know how much Fridays updated guidance from Southwest regarding their Xmas meltdown is fully baked into these analyst estimates yet.

Analyst expect full year losses at American, Hawaiian, JetBlue, and Spirit

Boy are these numbers way off. Like a one eyed man in a skeet shooting contest

Lpbri · Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:48 am

LAXintl wrote:
Nice surprise annual profit for AA. Industry got a nice late of year Xmas present revenue boost thanks to Southwest debacle.

SESGDL wrote:
These analyst predictions were wildly incorrect. I wonder what impact this will have on Q1 and later 2023 projections.

Predictions are only as good as the guidance and information shared by companies. Its in the interest of companies to set the appropriate market expectations, so hopefully, they do a better job communicating. Having said that, Q4 was a bit of a surprise for many not the least the last minute revenue spill from Southwest.

AA Nor any any other carrier got a boost from SWA.

alasizon · Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:36 pm

Lpbri wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Nice surprise annual profit for AA. Industry got a nice late of year Xmas present revenue boost thanks to Southwest debacle.

SESGDL wrote:
These analyst predictions were wildly incorrect. I wonder what impact this will have on Q1 and later 2023 projections.

Predictions are only as good as the guidance and information shared by companies. Its in the interest of companies to set the appropriate market expectations, so hopefully, they do a better job communicating. Having said that, Q4 was a bit of a surprise for many not the least the last minute revenue spill from Southwest.

AA Nor any any other carrier got a boost from SWA.

How do you figure? At a minimum they all got 5-6 days of boosted revenue at the end of the year between added passengers and baggage fees. AA and UA benefitted the most based on hub locations.

frmrCapCadet · Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:41 pm

Res 'Operating Revenue/Operating Profit/Operating Margin' plus Debt, like all other statistics these need to be put into context. In the rail industry, one of the major carriers has a considerably lower profit ratio, and 'wastes' more money on expansion of it system. may return less to 'stock holders'. It also has grown the most, and has expanded its capacity along the major southern route where it had one of the weakest connections. It is, of course, BNSF.

The point of all this, is AA's strategic plans going to result in a stronger airline 5 an 10 years from now. In one sense, it is competing with its former self as much as with other airlines.

strfyr51 · Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:54 pm

Tomotron wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
With earnings season here, below are projected Q4 earnings (in millions) for airlines.
Delta is expected to report first, on Friday 1/13.

AAL - $376.9
ALK - $121.7
ALGT - $14.4
DAL - $859.2
HA - (-$35.5)
JBLU - $71.2
LUV - $368.1
SAVE - $4.3
SNCY - $5.8
UAL - $693.0
ULCC - $39.2

I dont know how much Fridays updated guidance from Southwest regarding their Xmas meltdown is fully baked into these analyst estimates yet.

Analyst expect full year losses at American, Hawaiian, JetBlue, and Spirit

AA could be the next legacy carrier to go if they're not careful with their ballooning debt.

I think American could be sandbagging. they're paying down Debt and they can account for their profits in any way they choose. and they are opting to account for them differently than United or Delta. they're making money and I bet we'll see it in the first Quarter reporting.

alasizon · Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:47 pm

For comparison, total long term debt levels (inclusive of leases since AA doesn't break out leases)
AA 32.3B
DL 25.3B
UA 32.8B

cledaybuck · Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:54 pm

alasizon wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Nice surprise annual profit for AA. Industry got a nice late of year Xmas present revenue boost thanks to Southwest debacle.

Predictions are only as good as the guidance and information shared by companies. Its in the interest of companies to set the appropriate market expectations, so hopefully, they do a better job communicating. Having said that, Q4 was a bit of a surprise for many not the least the last minute revenue spill from Southwest.

AA Nor any any other carrier got a boost from SWA.

How do you figure? At a minimum they all got 5-6 days of boosted revenue at the end of the year between added passengers and baggage fees. AA and UA benefitted the most based on hub locations.

And at last minute high fares too.

MIflyer12 · Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:56 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
I think American could be sandbagging. they're paying down Debt and they can account for their profits in any way they choose. and they are opting to account for them differently than United or Delta. they're making money and I bet we'll see it in the first Quarter reporting.

I don't think you understand Generally Accepted Accounting Principles: GAAP.

Paying down debt is one use of free cash flow. Investments (in planes, technology), dividends, and stock buybacks are some others. It's why carriers during Covid were so eager to talk about progress back to positive free cash flow.

aa1818 · Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:22 pm

Can anyone point me in the direction of a (reputable/ accurate) comparison of the US3 results?
Many of the comparisons shown here have been single metric and selected to show a particular strength or weakness in one or more airline relative to its peers.
Cheers,
AA1818

TWFlyGuy · Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:56 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
alasizon wrote:
Lpbri wrote:

AA Nor any any other carrier got a boost from SWA.

How do you figure? At a minimum they all got 5-6 days of boosted revenue at the end of the year between added passengers and baggage fees. AA and UA benefitted the most based on hub locations.

And at last minute high fares too.

Since lying could result in reprecussions, I'm going to choose to believe Isom who said in an interview that the "boost" from Southwest's issues wasn't that material as the quarter was pretty much baked by then. Also, as a PR move the competing airlines (at least UA & AA according to this article) capped fares so it wasn't the typical last minute full Y fare that you're eluding to.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/business ... index.html

alasizon · Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:04 pm

TWFlyGuy wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
alasizon wrote:

How do you figure? At a minimum they all got 5-6 days of boosted revenue at the end of the year between added passengers and baggage fees. AA and UA benefitted the most based on hub locations.

And at last minute high fares too.

Since lying could result in reprecussions, I'm going to choose to believe Isom who said in an interview that the "boost" from Southwest's issues wasn't that material as the quarter was pretty much baked by then. Also, as a PR move the competing airlines (at least UA & AA according to this article) capped fares so it wasn't the typical last minute full Y fare that you're eluding to.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/business ... index.html

By the time the price caps were put in place, a majority of passengers had already rebooked. All carriers benefited from WN's meltdown. It may have only been a few million in additional profit but to say that nobody received any benefit is just incorrect.

TWFlyGuy · Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:24 pm

alasizon wrote:
TWFlyGuy wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
And at last minute high fares too.

Since lying could result in reprecussions, I'm going to choose to believe Isom who said in an interview that the "boost" from Southwest's issues wasn't that material as the quarter was pretty much baked by then. Also, as a PR move the competing airlines (at least UA & AA according to this article) capped fares so it wasn't the typical last minute full Y fare that you're eluding to.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/business ... index.html

By the time the price caps were put in place, a majority of passengers had already rebooked. All carriers benefited from WN's meltdown. It may have only been a few million in additional profit but to say that nobody received any benefit is just incorrect.

He said it wasn't material. So, yes, it may have added a bit to top off the qtr but the results would largely be the same and people here would have the same opinion of either a) AA had a really good qtr, paid off some debt, closing the gap with peers or b) finding every possible data point to say they stunk, aren't as good as DL/UA, are preparing for another bankruptcy, etc.

aa1818 · Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:39 pm

So I tried to gather some info for a comparison but not sure if I've gotten the numbers correct. Perhaps someone with more knowledge can add:

FY 2022
AA
Op. Revenue: 49.0B
Op. Ex: 47.4B
Op. Income: 1.6B
Pre-tax Income: 458M
Net Income: 127M

DL
Op. Revenue: 50.6B or 45.6B?
Op. Ex:
Op. Income: 3.7B
Pre-tax Income: 1.9B or 2.7B
Net Income: ?

UA
Op. Revenue: 44.9B
Op. Ex:
Op. Income:
Pre-tax Income: 990M
Net Income: 737M

I hope i'm comparing apples with apples?!

Cheers,
AA1818

LAXintl · Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:16 am

Hawaiian Air reported $50.2mil Q4 loss and annual loss $240.1mil

https://newsroom.hawaiianairlines.com/r ... al-results

While upbeat about overall leisure demand they did call out slowness in the Japanese market returning along with a decline in domestic yields due to capacity/pricing pressures.
They see labor cost pressures with new pilot contract and hiring and training for Amazon A330 ops, along with increased maintenance costs.

nonrevelite · Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:36 am

aa1818 wrote:
Can anyone point me in the direction of a (reputable/ accurate) comparison of the US3 results?
Many of the comparisons shown here have been single metric and selected to show a particular strength or weakness in one or more airline relative to its peers.
Cheers,
AA1818

Google does a decent job highlighting the quarterly information. Search “American/Delta/United Airlines Earnings”.

LAXintl · Thu Feb 02, 2023 5:49 pm

Allegiant posted strong Q4 results

https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releas ... -year-2022

cledaybuck · Thu Feb 02, 2023 6:05 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Hawaiian Air reported $50.2mil Q4 loss and annual loss $240.1mil

https://newsroom.hawaiianairlines.com/r ... al-results

While upbeat about overall leisure demand they did call out slowness in the Japanese market returning along with a decline in domestic yields due to capacity/pricing pressures.
They see labor cost pressures with new pilot contract and hiring and training for Amazon A330 ops, along with increased maintenance costs.

How does HA fix this? I doesn't seem like WN is going to leave the interisland market anytime soon, so fares there will continue to be low. Fares to and from the mainland aren't much better.

LAXintl · Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:11 pm

Spirit posted numbers beating projections with net income of $12.6mil for Q4.

https://s24.q4cdn.com/507316502/files/d ... RECTED.pdf

SESGDL · Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:18 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Hawaiian Air reported $50.2mil Q4 loss and annual loss $240.1mil

https://newsroom.hawaiianairlines.com/r ... al-results

While upbeat about overall leisure demand they did call out slowness in the Japanese market returning along with a decline in domestic yields due to capacity/pricing pressures.
They see labor cost pressures with new pilot contract and hiring and training for Amazon A330 ops, along with increased maintenance costs.

How does HA fix this? I doesn't seem like WN is going to leave the interisland market anytime soon, so fares there will continue to be low. Fares to and from the mainland aren't much better.

One of the lessons to not be so dependent upon one market or business segment. Maybe they’ll form a partnership with WN to give WN customers access to their international network and to give their customers access to WN’s network. Unrealistic, but I’m not really sure what HA can really do to respond, especially if the market were to hit a downturn. They’re struggling when the industry as a whole is thriving, imagine how bad things would be if travel starts to decline.

Jeremy

onwFan · Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:53 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Hawaiian Air reported $50.2mil Q4 loss and annual loss $240.1mil

https://newsroom.hawaiianairlines.com/r ... al-results

While upbeat about overall leisure demand they did call out slowness in the Japanese market returning along with a decline in domestic yields due to capacity/pricing pressures.
They see labor cost pressures with new pilot contract and hiring and training for Amazon A330 ops, along with increased maintenance costs.

How does HA fix this? I doesn't seem like WN is going to leave the interisland market anytime soon, so fares there will continue to be low. Fares to and from the mainland aren't much better.

HA would have been a much better merger partner for B6 when compared to NK. Would give more lift for B6 in the west coast to expand.

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