As air transat has chosen to replace the A310s with new A321 LR NEO. i was wondering if air transat could choose the A350-941 or the A330-800 to replace the A330s? I would choose the spacious A350-941 with a fairly high ceiling if compared to the old A330s!

I dont think so TS is financially able for the time being to warrant purchasing new A339Neos in the near term.

Also instead of wasting money on buying new A339s (they dont need the A359 for any route), they are better off just dry leasing newer build A333s.

The A350 would probably be too big for them, they are good candidates for the A339 in my opinion.
A339 can do everything A338 would be deployed on Air Transat's network, the peak summer to Europe and Caribbean in Winter could fill the added seat difference at fairly low cost.
Given how the A321LR has allowed the airline to fly to Europe across extended period of time (longer season) I would expect TS needs in terms of wide-body to reduce, and focus only on a few European capitals year-round.

Hello, thank you for your comments, If I replace air transat with air canada, I'm sure your comments will be different? Are you going to say that A350 is more real to replace the A330-300?

AIRTRANSAT767 wrote:

Hello, thank you for your comments, If I replace air transat with air canada, I'm sure your comments will be different? Are you going to say that A350 is more real to replace the A330-300?

No, in my opinion still no
I honestly don't know their plans, but I would replace Air Canada's A330 with more 787-9, they offer the same capacity and very similar configuration.
Their 777 still have a good 10 years worth of life minimum so there's no rush for a replacement aircraft, only there I would see the A350 as a contender, depends really how Boeing's 777X shapes up, might be more relevant and less out-dated than the A350 at that time

They should buy a whole fleet from an existing operator of A330-300 like Cathay Pacific. Buying new A339 would seem expensive unless Airbus is desperate to deal on their slow selling plane. Doing a "Condor" would be great for the airline and the fleet.

AIRTRANSAT767 wrote:

Hello, thank you for your comments, If I replace air transat with air canada, I'm sure your comments will be different? Are you going to say that A350 is more real to replace the A330-300?

Not really. AC has a very different long-haul network (TPAC), and a strong balance sheet giving it better access to capital markets -- selling equity, bank loans, or better lease terms than Air Transat could expect.

Besides, AC already has 787s in the fleet. Add more 787-900s in they want more range than A330-330s; add 787-10s if they want more seats per departure and unbeatable operating economics per seat.

jfk777 wrote:

They should buy a whole fleet from an existing operator of A330-300 like Cathay Pacific. Buying new A339 would seem expensive unless Airbus is desperate to deal on their slow selling plane. Doing a "Condor" would be great for the airline and the fleet.

I like this idea alot. I mean, the only carriers that shed alot of A330s would be AA (which retired theirs) and/or Air Asia (who would have had theirs already set up in a LCC configuration). While an A339 would be a great medium-term offer goal, on shorter runs (and AirTransat does have a few of those), the A333/A332 is better suited (lighter to carry over said shorter trip). What's interesting is that Sri Lankan (UL) used to lease their A330s (prior to Covid) and I wonder if these (used in some similar stage lengths) could also be bought to keep (with/as spares). At this point, and based on Air Transat's business - they do need something that comes in at a special cost, where the aircraft may not need to 'earn-the-keep' (usually by high yielding and/or high utilization) but that can help with seasonal differences (N.W. - South to the Caribbean, N.S. - To Europe). So, some downtime and/or slack in the fleet would be appreciated and at a lower cost allows it to hurt/cost less. Another option would be to see what comes of the former Air Europa fleet, and/or how that may be incorporated into their new owner.

It would have to be a very short, less than 1000nm trip, for the CEO to come out on top in pure operating costs.

Atlantic range A321 will certainly be part of any fleet plan for winter and smaller destinations.

yeah dont see a brand new order for A339 or A350’s. Though for a while there were stored models of latter. Will be replacement newer A330’s at a push.

Honestly I think eventually we'll see A330NEOs in the fleet but just not soon. They'll probably take CEOs in the short term with a long term order for NEOs in maybe 2+ years time if they can get their finances in order.

seahawk wrote:

It would have to be a very short, less than 1000nm trip, for the CEO to come out on top in pure operating costs.

That's kind of why I made reference to AC's better access to capital markets, above. Air Transat isn't flush with capital. IMHO, this is far from a pure operating cost decision, to be made over a 25-year life cycle. ULCCs don't have the luxury of planning that far out, frankly. Keeping fleet commonality with some gently used A330s makes a lot of sense, IMHO. If they're still around in ten years they can look at the markets for used 787s, used 330neos, and used 359s according to the needs to the network.

AIRTRANSAT767 wrote:

As air transat has chosen to replace the A310s with new A321 LR NEO. i was wondering if air transat could choose the A350-941 or the A330-800 to replace the A330s? I would choose the spacious A350-941 with a fairly high ceiling if compared to the old A330s!

respects in regards to your appreciation for the a359
would you consider thoughts on your elevated thesis 'Air Transit's business model evolution'?

It would be interesting to hear thoughts on derivative paths with probabilities or business symbiosis:
* acquiring used a333 frames from Air Canada
* partnering with airbus to make the a332 'convertible' to freighter; with seasonal thesis in mind
* partnering with the Royal Canadian Air Force to install the MRTT package on a few of their frames; with the 'reserve' and off season lease availability thesis. Alternately, seasonally leasing MRTT frames from RCAF. Similar models are employed by the UK/AirTanker.
* strengthening the seasonally sharing of frames business model

reiterating for the other readers:
Air transit has historically sought to minimize fixed costs by 1)leasing older frames, 2)seasonally sharing frames with other global carriers; Garuda, Thomas Cook/Condor, Travel Service Poland, XL Airways France...
While they have preferred the leasing model, do you think that the acquisition by AC has altered this or any other Air Transit business thesis?

datum: when they started retiring the a313 in 2017 there were 10 of these frames in the fleet
datum: during the 2017 inflection time period they operated 3 of the a332s and began growing the fleet


opinion: It is difficult to see the carrier profitably operating frames larger than the a332, except perhaps for a few a333s. One would project* that they would optimistically look to leasing aged b788s once the a332 platform sunsets. *projection depends on the current market/business model evolving versus have a seismic shift.

MIflyer12 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

It would have to be a very short, less than 1000nm trip, for the CEO to come out on top in pure operating costs.

That's kind of why I made reference to AC's better access to capital markets, above. Air Transat isn't flush with capital. IMHO, this is far from a pure operating cost decision, to be made over a 25-year life cycle. ULCCs don't have the luxury of planning that far out, frankly. Keeping fleet commonality with some gently used A330s makes a lot of sense, IMHO. If they're still around in ten years they can look at the markets for used 787s, used 330neos, and used 359s according to the needs to the network.

That will all depend on the future fuel prices, which is the problem. Gently used A330CEOs will still be seeing healthy demand if the fuel prices remain reasonable, if fuel prices explode, they will be cheap but the operating costs compared to a NEO will also be going up. If they have the means to get a good deal on new frames, it is a good decision. If they do not have the money for that, the choice is also easy.

It's good to have different opinions, that's good! If I will be CEO of Airtransat, I will definitely choose A350-941s, even if they are a little expensive to buy and rent, but I see big, it's important in a company!

A321XLR can fly every single route in the network, ATH is at the effective max range, but should be doable, though maybe minus a couple seats for blocking westbound. There is no need for a widebody replacement, the A321neo can do everything they need and they would be able to run a single fleet type. Less seats will equal better yields and the high volume markets can run more frequency. To me it's win-win.

Air Canada actually added more A330s to the fleet not long ago. The older, lighter A333s actually have a ton of utility on YUL-Europe and some YYZ-Europe, as well as for some of their seasonal demand in North America. AA was hasty in dumping the old US birds, which were well suited to PHL/JFK-Europe on second and third tier cities. I don't see them sending aircraft to Transat, especially since they are no longer buying them.

The XLR makes more sense than 339s for Transat, especially given their route structure. If anything, 787s would make more sense if they wanted to stay at the same size and A350s would make more sense if they decided to grow - depending on whether TC decided to grant the 330/350 a common type. You just have to think the XLR will be that airplane that flies to places like LYS, BOD, etc.

whywhyzee wrote:

A321XLR can fly every single route in the network, ATH is at the effective max range, but should be doable, though maybe minus a couple seats for blocking westbound. There is no need for a widebody replacement, the A321neo can do everything they need and they would be able to run a single fleet type. Less seats will equal better yields and the high volume markets can run more frequency. To me it's win-win.

I don't see them going that far, as they'd probably have some real issues with some of the longer flights to hotter places, but I can definitely see the XLR being a partial replacement for the A330 fleet, or a supplement while the A330 fleet is dedicated to their heavier, longer flights.