texl1649 wrote:

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1628814771834298368

So, delivery of (the first 3) project sunrise A35K’s in 2H CY 2026, for now?

Ita been updated to say end of 2025 which could theoretically mean delivery as late as Dec 2025 . Given this timeline you would hope at least one of the routes would be operating RPT services by the mid dec peak pending when the first gets delivered i guess we would have a more concrete timeframe in about 18 months .

ZK-NBT wrote:

No chance of the A330NEO. QF want to reduce types , widebody will be A350/787 in 10 10 years.

The youngest A330s will only be 17 or 18 years old or thereabouts in a decade, and the two being converted to freighters are being done so at significant capital expenditure. I doubt Qantas are spending the money on conversions to fly the aircraft for less than a decade, especially given the suggestions that they may convert more of them. I suspect the fleet type will still be around at Qantas in a decade.

ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I don’t think that will be the case with QF here, they want less types and flexibility, they may well have some delivery slots for who knows when for 787s? 12 A350s are coming from 2025, this will likely allow some A330 retirements as well.

They have no remaining options for B787s which means no remaining delivery slots. There are suggestions that they have some purchase rights, but purchase rights don't come with a deliver slot. Even if they have remaining purchase rights these are not likely usable given the lack of delivery slots available in the next few years.

RJMAZ wrote:

The primary reason for using the A330 on domestic and New Zealand flights was do to express cargo. It seems the A321 freighters will take over that role.

It would not surprise me if the A330 routes get replaced with passenger A321 and freighter A321.

Maybe, but SYD's slots will remain fixed for the foreseeable future. The only way to account for passenger growth at SYD will be to carry more passengers per slot used. So I don't expect QF group to try and replace an A330 domestic or trans Tasman flight out of SYD for two flights on seperate pax and freighter A321s, especially during the daytime where slots are at a premium. While SWZ will help relieve some of this pressure, it's not likely to be to the extent that QF group will want to significantly reduce or eliminate widebody domestic and trans Tasman flying.

evanb wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

No chance of the A330NEO. QF want to reduce types , widebody will be A350/787 in 10 10 years.

The youngest A330s will only be 17 or 18 years old or thereabouts in a decade, and the two being converted to freighters are being done so at significant capital expenditure. I doubt Qantas are spending the money on conversions to fly the aircraft for less than a decade, especially given the suggestions that they may convert more of them. I suspect the fleet type will still be around at Qantas in a decade.

The last A330 was delivered in 2012 so will be 20-21 in a decade. Sure A330 freighters will still be around, aren’t they run by AAE though? The ones being converted aren’t the youngest.

evanb wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I don’t think that will be the case with QF here, they want less types and flexibility, they may well have some delivery slots for who knows when for 787s? 12 A350s are coming from 2025, this will likely allow some A330 retirements as well.

They have no remaining options for B787s which means no remaining delivery slots. There are suggestions that they have some purchase rights, but purchase rights don't come with a deliver slot. Even if they have remaining purchase rights these are not likely usable given the lack of delivery slots available in the next few years.

There was discussion last month on this. I can’t recall the exact outcome but I’ll take your word for it. With A321s coming in 2024 there is some scope for QF, the A330s are great at what they do, Perhaps QF will take the JQ 788s which is often mentioned. I don’t believe a crew rest can be refitted to existing aircraft?

ZK-NBT wrote:

evanb wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I don’t think that will be the case with QF here, they want less types and flexibility, they may well have some delivery slots for who knows when for 787s? 12 A350s are coming from 2025, this will likely allow some A330 retirements as well.

They have no remaining options for B787s which means no remaining delivery slots. There are suggestions that they have some purchase rights, but purchase rights don't come with a deliver slot. Even if they have remaining purchase rights these are not likely usable given the lack of delivery slots available in the next few years.

There was discussion last month on this. I can’t recall the exact outcome but I’ll take your word for it. With A321s coming in 2024 there is some scope for QF, the A330s are great at what they do, Perhaps QF will take the JQ 788s which is often mentioned. I don’t believe a crew rest can be refitted to existing aircraft?

I’m assuming you’re referring to the JQ 787’s? In which case, surely bunks can be added? They’d probably gut the entire interior and refit it completely.
If not, they can easily do what they do with the A330’s by installing a curtain. I doubt the 788’s would do many, if any, flights longer than 10 hours anyway.

Question, where generally is the 788 sweet spot? Elsewhere in the globe, what are its ideal routes?

789 is a LH plane for sure but 788?

qf2220 wrote:

Question, where generally is the 788 sweet spot? Elsewhere in the globe, what are its ideal routes?

789 is a LH plane for sure but 788?

I mean, it has the range to do LH, but capacity wise… well that’s where it challenges the economics. Why fly such a long distance for a small amount of pax.
That being said, it does work well for JQ, who uses it for higher capacity short haul and those flights into Asia. So I’d say it’s good for short-med haul. Anything in excess of 10 hrs and yields probably start to drop.

Just my take though… I’m no expert haha ^

I had expected more 787's dripping in the coming years, with their large, aging A330 fleet.

I remember QF once had orders/ commitments for more than 100 Dreamliners. 18 years later QF and Jetstar have just 22 combined.
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2005-12-13-Qantas-Chooses-Boeing-787-Dreamliner


https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230223/ ... b5nzj5.pdf

keesje wrote:

I had expected more 787's dripping in the coming years, with their large, aging A330 fleet.

I remember QF once had orders/ commitments for more than 100 Dreamliners. 18 years later QF and Jetstar have just 22 combined.
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2005-12-13-Qantas-Chooses-Boeing-787-Dreamliner


https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230223/ ... b5nzj5.pdf

If they were to announce anymore 787 orders, it’d probably be when they announce the A330 announcement… provided they actually choose the 787. No use ordering a little top up now to then do a bulk purchase in a year or so’s time.

JJWess wrote:

keesje wrote:

I had expected more 787's dripping in the coming years, with their large, aging A330 fleet.

I remember QF once had orders/ commitments for more than 100 Dreamliners. 18 years later QF and Jetstar have just 22 combined.
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2005-12-13-Qantas-Chooses-Boeing-787-Dreamliner


https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230223/ ... b5nzj5.pdf

If they were to announce anymore 787 orders, it’d probably be when they announce the A330 announcement… provided they actually choose the 787. No use ordering a little top up now to then do a bulk purchase in a year or so’s time.

Well there is use given the lead in time on 787s, where knows when they will get the 3 on order with the latest issues. The A330 replacement is a seperate RFP.

JJWess wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

Question, where generally is the 788 sweet spot? Elsewhere in the globe, what are its ideal routes?

789 is a LH plane for sure but 788?

I mean, it has the range to do LH, but capacity wise… well that’s where it challenges the economics. Why fly such a long distance for a small amount of pax.
That being said, it does work well for JQ, who uses it for higher capacity short haul and those flights into Asia. So I’d say it’s good for short-med haul. Anything in excess of 10 hrs and yields probably start to drop.

Just my take though… I’m no expert haha ^

If you're asking for LH as opposed to ULH then AAL, JAL, ANA use the B788 extensively on trans-Pacific on 8-12 hour flights. You'll also find them used frequently on trans-Atlantic from/to both N and S America with flights at or exceeding 10 hours. Run a flter for aircraft = B788 on any of the ADSB reporting web sites. Just like the B763 before it, there is a demand for lower capacity aircraft on LH.

Carriers don't run 788s for range, not when 789s have more range.

As for capacity vs. 321LR/XLRs to come (and aging 767, 764, A330), well, lots of big carriers use 788s, as yyztpa2 notes:

AC
AI
BA
China Southern
LATAM
Qatar
UA

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I'm not surprised with the additional A223 orders. I suspect there are lots of routes that will be replaced by the A223 over the 73H. Also a lot of A332 routes will be replaced by the A321XLR. With 20J seats it's an almost replacement for an A332.

Cheers,

The A321XLR also gives the opportunity for newer routes, from ADL, DRW, PER and other secondary population centres. I see the A32XLR, will be a new niche of aircraft. The A332 and A333s will likely be replaced by B789/78X

Wonder what sort of profits we’ll see at end of year - yields must be softening soonish?

Do they normally make big fleet announcements mid or end of year results? Curious if we could see long haul fleet update in July.

I do also enjoy the companies QF have ownership in that I never knew about:

OWNERSHIP INTEREST IN INVESTMENTS ACCOUNTED FOR UNDER THE EQUITY METHOD
Fiji Resorts Pte Limited
Hallmark Aviation Services L.P.
HT & T Travel Philippines, Inc.
Holiday Tours and Travel (Thailand) Ltd.
Holiday Tours and Travel Vietnam Co. Ltd. Holiday Tours and Travel (GSA)
Ltd. Helloworld Travel Limited
Jetstar Japan Co. Ltd.
PT Holiday Tours & Travel

No mention of FJ though?

smi0006 wrote:

Wonder what sort of profits we’ll see at end of year - yields must be softening soonish?

Do they normally make big fleet announcements mid or end of year results? Curious if we could see long haul fleet update in July.

You would think a small number 4-6 789s, however if QF don’t have options or reserved delivery slots they won’t get them for while. Otherwise A330 replacement order, but when was that planned for?

smi0006 wrote:

No mention of FJ though?

Qantas’s evidently does not consider that stake under the equity method. In other words QF has no significant control over FJ’s operations. Not surprising since majority of FJ is owned by Fijian government, and many government entities are generally not known for liking to cede any control of an airline they have a majority stake in even if they don’t fully own it.