Updated: Japan Airlines orders 737 MAX

720B · Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:43 pm

As per Bloomberg, Boeing Is Said to Be Nearing 737 Max Deal With Japan Airlines

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/boein ... 09825.html

Sermons · Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:09 pm

720B wrote:
As per Bloomberg, Boeing Is Said to Be Nearing 737 Max Deal With Japan Airlines

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/boein ... 09825.html

It looked like JAL was leaning towards airbus for a moment. Seems now, they want to keep the relationship great on both sides.

Great news for BA and Japan Airlines.

LifelinerOne · Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:43 pm

According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers! :wave:

DartHerald · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:18 pm

I think the author of this article had his irony filter tuned off when he wrote that JAL may have been put off an Airbus order because the A321XLR is facing a delay of some months!!!!

morrisond · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:21 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers!

Or there could be options on top of the firm orders.

yukisaviation · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:21 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers!

Just like how Skymark has 29 737-800s, and only ordered 4, yes, FOUR 737MAXes. Although tbf most of their 738s are still quite young so I think they will order more as they get older.

Sermons · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:23 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers!

Bloomberg says "at least 20". That could mean 20, 25 or even 30
Reuters says " more than 20".

ikolkyo · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:31 pm

Was actually wondering when JAL was going to make a NB order.

yukisaviation · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:53 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Was actually wondering when JAL was going to make a NB order.

Ngl I wished it would be an a32n or a220 order tho

Aseem747 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:55 pm

yukisaviation wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Was actually wondering when JAL was going to make a NB order.

Ngl I wished it would be an a32n or a220 order tho

A220 would only put them at a competitive disadvantage vs ANA

cledaybuck · Wed Mar 08, 2023 3:07 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers!

I don't see how a split order makes sense for a fleet of that size.

ikolkyo · Wed Mar 08, 2023 3:26 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers!

I don't see how a split order makes sense for a fleet of that size.

Especially when the oldest 738 is only 16 years old.

morrisond · Wed Mar 08, 2023 3:29 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the order is for 20 MAXs, both -8s and -10s.

However, they today have 43 Boeing B737-800s, so they need to order more MAXs, or will this be a split order...

Cheers!

I don't see how a split order makes sense for a fleet of that size.

Especially when the oldest 738 is only 16 years old.

How old is the youngest?

Polot · Wed Mar 08, 2023 3:34 pm

morrisond wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I don't see how a split order makes sense for a fleet of that size.

Especially when the oldest 738 is only 16 years old.

How old is the youngest?

About 4.5 years old. Delivered late summer 2018.

The newest planes are operated by their subsidiary Japan Transocean Air. With JTA in mind JAL has 56 737s. The newest JAL operated 737 is about 10.5 years old.

MileHFL400 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:35 pm

Gosh, thought JAL wasn’t going to go back to Boeing. I guess they have put their early frustrations with the 787 aside and will be renewing their relationship.

Congratulations to both parties when it’s signed, looking forward to seeing the MAX in JAL’s lack of colours.

zakuivcustom · Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:48 pm

Aseem747 wrote:
yukisaviation wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Was actually wondering when JAL was going to make a NB order.

Ngl I wished it would be an a32n or a220 order tho

A220 would only put them at a competitive disadvantage vs ANA

If JAL would order A220 it would be replacing their E170/E190 fleet, especially now that SpaceJet is no longer an option.

They can, of course, go the E2 route also. Their E190 are not that old, though (The E170 are similar age to their 738 fleets...around 15 years old).

MIflyer12 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:26 pm

Short-haul narrowbody fuel efficiency should be important to JAL, and availability of delivery positions is going to be important to everybody.

pacificvoyager2 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:28 pm

The deal is a major step forward for Boeing, which has been struggling to regain the trust of airlines and passengers since the grounding of the 737 Max. The company has been working hard to make the aircraft safe and reliable, and this deal with JAL is a sign that the company is making progress in that regard. It is also a sign that airlines are beginning to regain confidence in the 737 Max, which could lead to more orders in the future.

RayChuang · Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:37 pm

I say this though: as soon as the 737 MAX 10 gets certified, the queue for orders could be quite big. JL needs the planes for operations out of airports besides HND, NRT, NGO, ITM, KIX and FUK to Okinawa and regional international destinations.

enzo011 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:40 pm

RayChuang wrote:
I say this though: as soon as the 737 MAX 10 gets certified, the queue for orders could be quite big. JL needs the planes for operations out of airports besides HND, NRT, NGO, ITM, KIX and FUK to Okinawa and regional international destinations.

Why would the sales pick up when it is certified? The problem for the MAX, much like the A320, is that unless the production rate picks up dramatically it is sold out for years ahead. The current rate is somewhere between 25-31 per month. They are planning for 42 per month at the end of the year. If you take 42 per month from now and their backlog of 4246 aircraft, it will take them about 8 years to clear the backlog. If you take into account the ASC 606 orders the backlog is 3634 or so at 42 per month that is still 7 years worth of production.

Basically, they will need to up the production rate to open slots before mega orders can be thought of really. Then again you would still need 500 orders per year to keep the backlog at a steady rate, which is not bad. That is mega orders every year if you think about it.

Polot · Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:25 pm

Has JAL actually ever expressed any recent displeasure with Boeing or is that something invented by A.net because the last time they ordered wide bodies it was A350s? I’ve seen this narrative several times across several threads.

ikolkyo · Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:38 pm

Polot wrote:
Has JAL actually ever expressed any recent displeasure with Boeing or is that something invented by A.net because the last time they ordered wide bodies it was A350s? I’ve seen this narrative several times across several threads.

Pretty sure it's a classic myth, I'm willing to bet JAL ends up with more 787s than they have right now.

Lamp1009 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:46 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Polot wrote:
Has JAL actually ever expressed any recent displeasure with Boeing or is that something invented by A.net because the last time they ordered wide bodies it was A350s? I’ve seen this narrative several times across several threads.

Pretty sure it's a classic myth, I'm willing to bet JAL ends up with more 787s than they have right now.

Which variant though? -8s to replace their 767s?

flyaa757 · Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:59 pm

I'd expect remaining 763s replaced by 737-10s supplemented by a small number of additional 788s. 738s can get swapped for 73-8s as economics/lease periods dictate. Easy Co2 reduction, cost reduction and fleet simplification.

ikolkyo · Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:00 pm

Lamp1009 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Polot wrote:
Has JAL actually ever expressed any recent displeasure with Boeing or is that something invented by A.net because the last time they ordered wide bodies it was A350s? I’ve seen this narrative several times across several threads.

Pretty sure it's a classic myth, I'm willing to bet JAL ends up with more 787s than they have right now.

Which variant though? -8s to replace their 767s?

Perhaps, I see -9s being more likely. The newest batch of 767s are 11 years old and the eldest are about 20 years old, so who knows when they intend to begin replacement.

raylee67 · Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:50 am

I would think they would order replacement for their 767s first.

panam330 · Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:28 am

raylee67 wrote:
I would think they would order replacement for their 767s first.

Their newest 767s are barely a decade old, and for a few years now have been significantly underutilized. They’ve got plenty of life left before JL, who’s just now starting to financially recover, has to spend multiple billions replacing them.

PB26 · Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:09 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Polot wrote:
Has JAL actually ever expressed any recent displeasure with Boeing or is that something invented by A.net because the last time they ordered wide bodies it was A350s? I’ve seen this narrative several times across several threads.

Pretty sure it's a classic myth, I'm willing to bet JAL ends up with more 787s than they have right now.

And the japanese companies don't express displeasure publicly. I think this time Boeing made an effort to maintain JAL as one of loyal customers, after lost to Airbus and A350. Or the JAL would be split the order, with MAX and A220+NEO, the later to replace part of 737-800 and E-Jets. But dual fleet goes against the JAL fleet planning.

Carpethead · Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:41 pm

Or could just be a PR ploy.

flyaa757 wrote:
I'd expect remaining 763s replaced by 737-10s supplemented by a small number of additional 788s. 738s can get swapped for 73-8s as economics/lease periods dictate. Easy Co2 reduction, cost reduction and fleet simplification.

I will disagree with your statement. They already went thru a dramatic downsizing when they went from 747s, 777s down to A359, 787s, & 763s. Slot restriction will not go away at HND, so they will go with large number of widebodies when the 763s come up for retirement. It certainly won't be with new family of planes but with 787-8 or -9 or even -10 along with A359. I don't see them going for a domestic version of A350-1000. I will certainly agree they will order something in the 737-10MAX or A321neo class.

NameOmitted · Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:34 pm

pacificvoyager2 wrote:
The deal is a major step forward for Boeing, which has been struggling to regain the trust of airlines and passengers since the grounding of the 737 Max.

Have they? They are at better then 900 orders in the last two years.

MileHFL400 · Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:37 pm

pacificvoyager2 wrote:
The deal is a major step forward for Boeing, which has been struggling to regain the trust of airlines and passengers since the grounding of the 737 Max. The company has been working hard to make the aircraft safe and reliable, and this deal with JAL is a sign that the company is making progress in that regard. It is also a sign that airlines are beginning to regain confidence in the 737 Max, which could lead to more orders in the future.

I think you ll find that many CEO’s of airlines came out in the early days since the ungrounding and said that very few passengers took a rebooking option after learning they were scheduled on a MAX flight. I think the flying public has mostly moved on.

FiscAutTecGarte · Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:44 pm

Perhaps an order firmed up for Paris Air Show?

raylee67 · Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:57 pm

panam330 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
I would think they would order replacement for their 767s first.

Their newest 767s are barely a decade old, and for a few years now have been significantly underutilized. They’ve got plenty of life left before JL, who’s just now starting to financially recover, has to spend multiple billions replacing them.

But the oldest ones are not as new, no? If the news is correct, they are not ordering for full replacement of the 737 too. Same as 767, their newest 737s are quite new, only a few years old. What I mean is that I thought they would make a decision on their 767 replacement either earlier than or at the same time as the 737 replacement. They can stretch out the order and delivery as much as they want. The replacement is a strategic decision while the order is an execution of that decision.

JayinKitsap · Fri Mar 10, 2023 7:26 pm

Until the mega air show orders of recent years, it was much more common to order a few years worth of planes in an order. That was probably because there used to be real deposits on all of the ordered planes, now the deposits start X months before delivery (likely 24 to 30 months) so why not order 400 for the big media splash.

Does Alaska get poorer pricing ordering 30 vs 200 planes. I think not.

VS11 · Wed Mar 22, 2023 3:56 pm

Congrats to Boeing and JAL

Boeing wins Japan Airlines order for 21 MAX jets

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-boeing ... 26455.html

tistpaa727 · Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:13 pm

Still "according to industry sources" but the tea leaves definitely seem to be in alignment!

When announced on Thursday, per the above Yahoo!Finance link, congrats to both involved!

theVagabond · Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:17 pm

VS11 wrote:
Congrats to Boeing and JAL

Boeing wins Japan Airlines order for 21 MAX jets

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-boeing ... 26455.html

Will be interesting to see which Model they choose. Will it be -8's to replace the 738's or other versions (partially or in total)?

jbs2886 · Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:03 am

Confirmed. 21 737 MAX 8.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2023-03-23 ... lass-Fleet

jrfspa320 · Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:38 am

Surprised no -10s

I wonder if this leaves the door open for A321s

TheSonntag · Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:40 am

Japan remains a difficult market for Airbus and a good market for Boeing. Is there any reason for this?

LAX772LR · Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:04 am

TheSonntag wrote:
Japan remains a difficult market for Airbus and a good market for Boeing. Is there any reason for this?

Airbus has sold A32X of all kinds, plus A359s, A35Ks, and A388s to Japanese airlines.

About the only modern thing missing is the A330NEO, and that's yet to really hit its stride in any region, much less Japan.

Qantas74 · Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:56 am

Seems like the 737 MAX is catching on in Japan with orders from ANA, Skymark, and now JAL. I wonder if they plan on just using them on their existing 737NG routes or if they are thinking about trying something new with the extra range. As for the 767 replacement that others were discussing earlier, I would think additional 787-8s would suffice given that they already have plenty of the type in their fleet and the Boeing NMA seems to be on hold for the foreseeable future. I remember AA doing the same type of replacement before COVID hit and of course led to the immediate retirement of all of their 767s.

docmtl · Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:55 pm

Would this announcement kill any future A-220 or E2-190/195 order ?

TonyClifton · Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:59 pm

Surprised no Max10, would be a great aircraft for them. Could still see a 321 order?

dbeeo · Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:14 pm

The interior cabin presented by JAL in their facebook page is rather confusing... I could understand the all Y for domestic. But F and C classes only for domestic configuration? Hopefully is just for illustration purpose only

flee · Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:18 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Confirmed. 21 737 MAX 8.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2023-03-23 ... lass-Fleet

This order will not completely replace the existing B738 fleet. It would appear that more orders will be needed in future to replace the newer B738s.

Lamp1009 · Thu Mar 23, 2023 5:28 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Japan remains a difficult market for Airbus and a good market for Boeing. Is there any reason for this?

Japanese alignment with the US and special interests with Boeing. The 787 is like 20% Japanese if not more.

ikolkyo · Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:00 pm

I'm actually very surprised this wasn't a MAX 10 order. If there were an airline to not follow the norm, it would be JAL.

Sermons · Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:16 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I'm actually very surprised this wasn't a MAX 10 order. If there were an airline to not follow the norm, it would be JAL.

I don't think there is anything surprising about replacing the 737-800 with the MAX 8, and I doubt this is the last 737 order. Possibly a top up in the future.

ANA also ordered 20 MAX8s despite operating a similar amount of 737NGs ( 35+).

JaL is looking into ordering replacements for it's 767s, so the MAX 10, 787 and a321neo become great candidates for that.

smi0006 · Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:26 pm

Does JL use their 738 internationally or only domestically? I’m always surprised how small the JL fleet it compared to the NH these days. Hopefully we start to see some greater growth at JL

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