If it has an effect, it will have an effect this year only. The American public does not have a long memory. When the next OJ Simpson trial or Elian Gonzalles case comes up, people will start to think more about other things and forget about punishing France. Sure, some people will remember. But it won't be a significant enough number to effect business after this year is up.
This will be true almost regardless of what France does.
As to the behavior of France - lets put ourselves in the shoes of French decisionmakers. Lawrence Eagleburger (or was it Henry Kissenger? it was one of those two) called France the "pipsqueke state". However, there are good historic reasons for the French to be a little senstitive towards US behavior.
But lets look to the far future. Suppose, over the next 150 years the United States lost every war it fought and became a shadow of its former self. It would maintain its prosperity and its freedom, but other countries with larger population became more important as they caught up to the US economically. Suppose China became a democracy and became as rich per capita as the US and as a result grew its economy to many times the size of the US's. Suppose the free Chinese won some of the wars that the United States had lost - saving the the US homeland more than once. Suppose the Free Chinese and their Indian and Japanese allies (now also economic equals to the US on a per capita basis) started to dominate world politics and diplomacy.
What would we(the US) do then? We would try to consolidate our power by trying to dominate international organizations, especially those focused on the Americas. We would try to make the Americas into an economic and political block to oppose the Chinese. We would make all kinds of unreasonable demands and engage in all kinds of diplomatic skulldugery. When we were caught redhanded (like the French and British were after the Suez crises) we would go off in a huff and lay low for awhile, and then do something just as bad later. We would oppose the Chinese as much as we reasonably could regardless of whether their actions were good or bad. We would block the Chinese in the UN at every chance we got, again, regardless of the merits of their proposals. We would do all sorts of things to soothe our egos.
We need to look at France with compassion now. France is cursed with an inferiority complex. They do not deserve this inferiority complex - the current people and leaders of France for the most part have no responsibility for the country's past failures. Most of the factors that have led to the US's replacing "old Europe" as the prime mover on the world stage are things that neither France nor the US could do anything about. Even modern France still has many great achievements it can be proud of.
SHORT....The way to deal with France is with dignity and respect. Find harmless, symbolic ways to treat it as though it is still the great power it once was. Respect their advise and expertise on issues that they know a lot about - and yes, terrorism is one of these issues. Be public in our thanks for the help they have given us on these issues - don't take it for granted as the obligation of an ally. Treat them the way that we would want to be treated in a similar circumstance. Because if current trends in Asia continue, in 50-100 years we may be in the same boat that France is in now. Treat them with respect, try not to humiliate them, and in the long run we will see this obnoxious behavior stop. This is what worked with Britain, and in the long run, I am sure it will work with France and Russia as well.