13 percent of LHR departures are airplanes with more than 300 seats.
Replacing this small percentage of airplanes with a 600-seat or larger airplane will improve air traffic by only 5 percent. The overwhelming number of flights – 87 percent – are airplanes smaller than 300 seats. Airlines can reduce congestion more effectively by migrating from their smaller airplanes to the next largest airplane size...
While it may be true that only one in eight aircraft in
LHR are 300+ seaters, replacing smaller aircraft with larger isn't that easy. Remember that the vast majority of the small aircraft are European flights, roughly half of them by
BA/BD and the other half by their European counterparts.
Let me take the
AMS market as an example. The
LHR-
AMS currently looks like this:
BA: 7x daily
BD: 8x daily
KL: 9x daily
I don't seen
BA reducing frequency on this route in order to free up a slot for a long haul 777 flight [or 744, or 7E7 ot whatever]. If
BA reduces the frequency on
LHR-
AMS, but increasing aircraft size, many pax will go to
BD or
KL since they have a better choice of frequency.
Furthermore I don't see
KL giving up slots in order for
BA to increase long haul flying [unless
KL will join One World, but that's a whole different story . . . ].
So while it may be true that there is a lot to gain by replacing the smaller aircraft [737/32X] with bigger aircraft [767/A300], this simply is not going to happen.
BA still needs to be competitive on their short haul routes where frequencies are king. Reducing 737/32X frequencies is not going to help their Euro-routes.
On the other hand, frequencies are not so important on long haul flights. I don't think many pax will prefer
BA on
LHR-
JFK just because
BA has 8 [eight!!] daily flights versus only 3 or 4 of the competition. Check out the number of 747/777 flights, and the number of long haul routes were
BA outflies the competition frequency-wise.
BA has no incentive to further increase long haul frequencies when they already outperform the competition on most [if not all] of these routes frequency-wise.
Just to give you an idea of the shear number of long haul
BA 744/777 flights out of
LHR.
BA longf haul 744/777 flights ex
LHR valid through 25 Oct 03 as published per
BA on-line PDF TimeTable:
[all flights daily unless stated otherwise]
Flight#, equipment, route
083 777
LHR - ABV 5x weekly
073 777
LHR - AUH - MUS
125 744
LHR - BAH - DOH
039 777
LHR - BJS 5x weekly
009 744
LHR -
BD), Thailand">BKK -
SYD
139 744
LHR - BOM
213 744
LHR -
BOS
215 777
LHR -
BOS
239 777
LHR -
BOS
155 744
LHR - CAI
249 777
LHR -
CCS 3x weekly
147 744
LHR - CCU 2x weekly
059 744
LHR -
CPT
145 744
LHR - DCC 3x weekly
143 744
LHR - DEL
219 777
LHR -
DEN
107 777
LHR -
DXB
109 777
LHR -
DXB
185 777
LHR -
EWR
187 777
LHR -
EWR
189 777
LHR -
EWR
247 777
LHR -
GIG -
EZE 3x weekly
025 744
LHR -
HKG
027 744
LHR -
HKG
153 777
LHR -
HRE 2x weekly
295 777
LHR -
IAH
133 777
LHR - Jeddah 4x weekly
113 744
LHR -
JFK
115 744
LHR -
JFK
117 744
LHR -
JFK
175 744
LHR -
JFK
177 744
LHR -
JFK
179 744
LHR -
JFK 4x weekly [+3x weekly 777]
183 744
LHR -
JFK 6x weekly
055 744
LHR -
JNB
057 744
LHR -
JNB
157 777
LHR - KWI
269 744
LHR -
LAX
283 744
LHR -
LAX
075 744
LHR - LOS
255 777
LHR - LUN 2x weekly
035 744
LHR - MAA 2x weekly
123 744
LHR - MAU 3x weekly
243 744
LHR -
MEX 3x weekly
207 744
LHR -
MIA
209 744
LHR -
MIA
065 744
LHR - NBO [2x weekly
LHR - NBO - SEY]
005 744
LHR -
NRT
007 744
LHR -
NRT
295 777
LHR -
ORD
297 777
LHR -
ORD
299 777
LHR -
ORD
067 744
LHR -
PHL
069 777
LHR -
PHL
289 777
LHR -
PHX
263 777
LHR - Riyaad 4x weekly
275 777
LHR -
SAN 5x weekly
049 744
LHR -
SEA
285 744
LHR -
SFO
287 744
LHR -
SFO
015 744
LHR -
SIN -
SYD
017 744
LHR -
SIN -
MEL
085 744
LHR -
YVR
093 744
LHR -
YYZ
097 744
LHR -
YYZ [3x weekly]
099 744
LHR –
YYZ
Please note the number long haul destinations that already have multiple daily 777/744 flights. Mind you, these are the worst days of aviation, never mind 2008 when
BA would be able to receive their first A380 . . . :
JFK 7x daily [not counting Concorde]
BOS 3x daily
EWR 3x daily
ORD 3x daily
DXB 2x daily
HKG 2x daily
JNB 2x daily
LAX 2x daily
MIA 2x daily
NRT 2x daily
PHL 2x daily
SFO 2x daily
SIN 2x daily
SYD 2x daily
YYZ 1.4 x daily
256 weekly 744 departures from
LHR, or 36,5 per day. All long haul!
145 weekly 777 departures from
LHR, or 20,7 per day. All long haul!
Not counting the long haul flights out of
LGW.
Nah . . .
BA would not need the A380 . . . yeah right!
Please note that the A380 will NOT ease
LHR congestion, for the reasons mentioned above in earlier posts. Generally speaking, it is not the high capacity wide body that causes the congestion, rather the numerous A320/737 sized aircraft flying into the same airport.
However the A380 does provide
BA with a unique opportunity to increase revenue by up to
35% WITHOUT adding any additional flights which aren't available anyway at slot constrained
LHR [never mind slot constrained destinations like
NRT]. If
BA wants to increase pax numbers, there isn't much choice other than increasing equipment gauge. If they are already at 777/747 level, next step obviously will be the A380.
PW100