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Sjoerd
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Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:44 am

I am surprised BA hasn't ordered the A380 yet. Why not ? Will they do so in the near future ? Does anybody know about this ? I think of all European airlines the A380 is very well suited for BA.
 
JGPH1A
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:50 am

QF have already ordered the A380 (haven't they ?), as have SQ - once they put them on LHR-SIN/BKK-SYD, BA will have to follow suit just to keep up. It's like when the 747 was introduced, it left carriers still operating DC-8/707 scrambling to catch up, because (theoretically) the comfort and facilities were so much better. If Airbus's publicity is to be believed, the inside of the A380 is going to look like a Grand Hyatt on steroids, and if this is the case, who is going to want to be squashed into the back (or even the front) of a 744.

But then, you know the airlines - if they can cram 700 of you into 11-abreast with 17in wide seats at 31in pitch, you KNOW they will ! Shops, jacuzzis, individual cabins ? Dream ON.
 
teva
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:53 am

LHR Being very congested and slot restricted, I think they should order some.
But right now, they are in trouble. My guess is that they will see if it still fits in their needs once it is in service. (and if it as good as on the paper. Remember how the MD11 has been disappointing for the passenger airlines)
Teva
 
donder10
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 3:03 am

Practically all the EU majors are in trouble though.I do see BA getting the 380 in the medium term due to the issue of slots at LHR.T5 should cope with it too.
 
747400sp
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 3:30 am

Yes, I hate to say so since it would hurt Boeing. But I do like the A380, it could be the best product Airbus ever put out. It could even be as good as a Boeing we will see.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 4:12 am

But then, you know the airlines - if they can cram 700 of you into

As much as they'd like to do that, they currently cannot... as the aircraft is only certified to evacuate 555 pax through 50% of its exits in 90 seconds in a three class configuration.

Without more exits and a better evacuation system (which are probably inevitable on future derivatives), the A388 will have no choice but to limit their pax to that amount.
 
ssides
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 4:50 am

When is the first A380 scheduled to be delivered? And to whom?
 
ual777
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:31 am

I doubt that the A380 will look like the "Grand Hyatt on steroids". I mean, if you just think about it, in today's economy, less and less people are buying first class seats. Now if the A380 has all these beds and everything, and they are using up A LOT of space, then ticket prices will sky-rocket. Who will pay for it?? Sure, you will get upgrades, but they won't cover the operating costs. I guess what I am trying to get at is: it will either be a huge cattle car, or a very expensive flop. I'll stick with a 777 thanks.
 
teahan
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:50 am

Sorry ConcordeBoy but you are way off the mark in reply #5.

***
As much as they'd like to do that, they currently cannot... as the aircraft is only certified to evacuate 555 pax through 50% of its exits in 90 seconds in a three class configuration.

Without more exits and a better evacuation system (which are probably inevitable on future derivatives), the A388 will have no choice but to limit their pax to that amount.

***

For a start the A380 isn't certified for anything right now. 555 is the suggested three class configuration but with the currently planned exit configuration and evacuation system, it is designed for 800 passengers (though will only be incrementally certified as airlines require, probably with an initial 700)

Emirates has already announced it will install 640 seats in some of its A380-800's, further proof that your claims are wrong.

Jeremiah




[Edited 2003-08-14 22:52:22]
 
teahan
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:02 am

And back to the topic itself, I am quite confident we will see British Airways ordering the A380 sometime in the future. While I am all too aware of the company’s policy to reduce aircraft size and its rejection of the A380 in the past, even in the better times before September 11th with comments such as “We are not ordering the A380. There's very few routes that suit large aircraft” - Dick Wyatt, then fleet planning manager. It is also true that now is not the ideal time due to market conditions and the company’s financial situation. However I don’t think anyone can ignore/deny the following either:

- BA operates into a number of slot-constrained airports, you only have to look as far as its home base: London Heathrow. Terminal 5 will come online in 2008, ideal for A380 operations. Decreasing capacity and increasing yield through trading 747s for 777s etc., while a necessary “breath catching” move is not viable for all routes in the long term. The same can be said about increasing frequency instead of aircraft capacity. For instance look at Asia-Europe, the only really convenient schedule is a late night departure and early morning arrival.

- British Airways most certainly has routes that can support the A380, or at least will definitely have in 2008-2010. 500 seats is hardly a huge leap from 400 seater B747-400s, the first of which (I presume) will come up for replacement in 2010 when they reach 20 years

- Its direct competitor, Virgin Atlantic, has ordered the aircraft.

- Quite a few competitors will fly the A380 to LHR such as Singapore Airlines and Malaysia Airlines. These companies will consequently have very significant cost and passenger appeal advantages.

- 16+ 747-400s will be over 20 years of age in 2009, well into retirement age. Despite the tendency towards smaller aircraft, there will always be a need for a number of 400+ seaters in the fleet. I can hardly imagine them replacing 747s with newer 747s.

- In a decent 3 or 4-class configuration with large premium classes, the A380 will hold about 500 passengers (without gyms, bars and whatever else). Hardly a huge step up from 400 seater Boeing 747-400s.

And one final, lighter point. With the Concorde being retired, the company needs a new flagship.

Regards,
Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-08-14 23:09:56]
 
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PW100
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:11 am

IMHO, the only reason that BA has not yet ordered the A380 is solely because BA has no gate space for this giant at their LHR hub. It's hard enough for them to get their numerous 744's and 777's flowing through T4. No way that they can cram in 380's.
However rest assured that once T5 is up and running, BA A380's will swamp the place. The design of T5 has A380 written all over it, BA will be the main user of T5.

PW100
 
ba319-131
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:15 am

Airlines should only order planes which suit their operations and requirements.

Whilst BA may not require such and aircraft now,it will do by the time the A380 enters service.

In addition,with SQ,QF,VS and EK having ordered the aircraft,BA will have a hard time trying to compete with those airlines when they start placing A380's into Heathrow.

Whilst many people have a 'Brand Loyalty',many also wish to fly on the newest aircraft and do research who is flying what and when.

I am quite sure BA will operate A380's,when and if an order is placed is anyones guess,perhaps they may come from ILFC,it's a wait and see at the moment.
 
teahan
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:18 am

Ba319-131,

Regarding leasing A380's: ILFC only has 3 passenger aircraft positions available and those have been strongly linked to Air China (or Cathay Pacific, but was pre-SARS)

Jeremiah
 
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Aaron747
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:20 am

Could be as good as a Boeing, 747400sp? You mean the A320 isn't already as good as the 737?
 
dutchjet
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:28 am

BA has financial problems and issues to work out, and has gone through a down-sizing program and a capacity reduction program in order to become profitable once again. There is a reason that many BA European flights once operated by 757 and 767 aircraft now operate with A319 and A320 aircraft.

BA has already stated that, for now, it does not require the A380....even with all of the terminal and slot issues at LHR, BA would very much like to replace some 744s with 772s, and is not currently thinking about upgrading to the A380.

There is no discussion that the A380 will be a great airliner, another huge step forward, but dont think that it will be a flying palace....airliners may further upgrade their premium cabins, but dont expect economy to be much different that on any other airplane, simply lots of seats and very croweded. Back in the 1970s, airlines reacted to the overcapcity caused by the introduction of the 747 by installing first class lounges, coach class lounges, stand-up bars, etc.....and still lost a forturne, it took many years for demand to catch up with capacity; all of this happened when an airline broke even on a flight with a 62% load factor.....now, 80-90% of the seats on a flight must be occupied for an airline to break even. Thus, as amazing as the A380 may be, many airlines (including BA) are going to take a wait and see attitude becfore ordering it.
 
FlySSC
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:28 am

BA never "decided" to buy an Airbus. They got their 10 first A320 from B.Caledonian and finally realized that it's a great plane and bought extra 320 et 319 much later after all others major European Airlines.

They don't operate any wide-body Airbus on their long-haul network. I think they are probably waiting for an eventual streched-744 if ever Boeing decide to launch it... (one day they will, next day they won't...).

If Boeing finally don't, BA WILL HAVE inevitably to consider the A380, especially if it's a succes with its competitors.

That's always how the Brits do...
 
aussie747
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 9:12 am

BA I think will go for the A380 , may they will see see how the test flights do (first test flights set for July 2005 with First deliveries forSQ in Aug 2006 and QF in October 2006).

As SQ,QF,EK,MH,VS will be employing them on the LHR Routes due to slot constraints, I am pretty sure you will find BA will "come to the party".

BA of late have become a more cautious airline and I think will wait to see how things pan out, rather than take the aggressive more of EK and ordered 40 or so of the A380's.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:04 pm

Here's the big question: is LHR's new Terminal 5 designed to sport dual-level jetwalks for A380-800 operations like what we'll be seeing at DXB soon and very likely will be installed at SIN soon? If T5 will have 80 x 80 meter gate with dual-level jetwalks then we do foresee the day the BA will get the A388, primarily for routes from LHR to NRT, HKG, JFK, SYD via SIN or KUL, JNB, LAX and possibly SFO.

I wouldn't be surprised that the 80 x 80 meter parking gates at the end of Concourses A and G at SFO could be easily modified to sport dual-level jetwalks by 2006, especially considering that we may see A388's from SQ, VS, LH and possibly AF flying to SFO regularly by the late summer of 2007.  Smile
 
VC-10
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:32 pm

In addition,with SQ,QF,VS and EK having ordered the aircraft,BA will have a hard time trying to compete with those airlines when they start placing A380's into Heathrow.

Not necessarily. When the 747 came into service some passengers preferred to fly on the VC10 and would delay their travel until they got a seat one.


Whilst many people have a 'Brand Loyalty',many also wish to fly on the newest aircraft and do research who is flying what and when.


I don't think so, I would say at least 95% of the travelling public don't have a clue what aircraft they will be flying on and don't care either.
 
brons2
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:36 pm

As much as they'd like to do that, they currently cannot... as the aircraft is only certified to evacuate 555 pax through 50% of its exits in 90 seconds in a three class configuration.

Right now, it's not certified to do a thing!  Wink/being sarcastic
 
Sjoerd
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:36 pm

YOU WROTE : I don't think so, I would say at least 95% of the travelling public don't have a clue what aircraft they will be flying on and don't care either.

I wouldn't underestimate the going into service of the A380, it will be something very new, the largest jetliner so far. It will be in the media all over. I am quite sure that people will talk about it more than they would have if they had flown on a B744. With it's double deck the A380 really stands out. The B744 did to, but people got used to the image.
 
carduelis
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Fri Aug 15, 2003 6:57 pm


I can't remember the exact order from QF, but it was considerable. I remember feeling at the time of the order that there will doubtless be a deal between QF and BA (with all their close relationships, both operational and financial) on the takeover of some of the QF delivery slots.

Time will tell, and surely, as stated, T5 must come into the equation.

 
donder10
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Sun Aug 17, 2003 10:33 am

Some might be put off by the thought of flying such a large plane!
 
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yyz717
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Sun Aug 17, 2003 10:45 am

BA's focus has been frequency on long haul routes, hence increased numbers of 772's vs the 744. They were looking to order the 773 prior to 9-11 but this did not come thru. Until BA changes this strategy, I think you will see a 772/773 dominant BA by 2010 with a few remaining 744's. The 380 would only be profitable for BA if bought in sufficient numbers but how many BA routes can support say a fleet of 15-25 380's? Even with the 380, BA would still need the 772, 763, 744 etc.

BA never "decided" to buy an Airbus. They got their 10 first A320 from B.Caledonian and finally realized that it's a great plane and bought extra 320 et 319 much later after all others major European Airlines.

Not quite true. The NG was strongly considered against the 32x. The existing fleet of older 320's likely had little impact on the BA decision to order the 32x.




 
aussie747
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Sun Aug 17, 2003 11:26 am



Re the below

"I can't remember the exact order from QF, but it was considerable. "

QF order was for 12 confirmed but then an option on another 13 planes comparable of the SQ order or 15 confirmed/10 options
 
behramjee
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Sun Aug 17, 2003 11:55 am

The only aircraft that BA was seriously contemplating buying were B 777-300s when they were selling 5-10 of their B 744s 2 years ago. They were in serious talks to buy nearly a dozen 773s to serve the routes that the 744 didnt have the demand of but had a 280-330 seat load factor.

I think that BA will replace all their 767s with 7E7s by 2010. The 7E7 is the ideal replacement (capacity and range wise) for their 763s.
 
cloudy
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Sun Aug 17, 2003 12:20 pm

Whilst many people have a 'Brand Loyalty',many also wish to fly on the newest aircraft and do research who is flying what and when.


I don't think so, I would say at least 95% of the travelling public don't have a clue what aircraft they will be flying on and don't care either.
-----

People indeed do not generally care what plane they fly on, as well they shouldn't. Cabin configuration has a far greater impact on passenger comfort.
However, completely new airliners are so rare nowdays that they are somewhat of a draw when they first come out. A significant number of people did prefer 777's soon after they entered service. This is a transitory effect, but it is significant for the first few years of a clean-sheet design's life. The A-380's unique position as the world's largest airliner should enhance this effect. Not this this will, or should, influence any purchase decisions. These are made with far longer periods of time in mind.
 
flying lsd
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Sun Aug 17, 2003 4:02 pm

BA still waiting competitor, better financial health and maybe space.
I'm just returning from MIA thru LHR , it's just impressive to see T4, a lot of, 777 and 747 at the gates + more and more planes in every corner of the taxiway, waiting ....
For the construction of T5, the basement is order way, and will be a very large terminal .
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 2:09 pm

By 2009 there should be 22 airports that can handle the A380 (per Airbus). If this is the case, then it seems to be an extremely expensive airplane for such a small market (170 airports for 744).

I can see BA buying the 777-300ER before the A380, due mainly to the small market that will already have significant seats thrown at it when the A380 enters service. A 777-300ER requires 38 percent less seats to be filled to break even, when compared to the A380. A lot less risk, and if the market is there, throw in some additional frequencies.

BA does have plenty of slots at LHR, don't they?
 
David_itl
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 6:28 pm


777-300ER requires 38 percent less seats to be filled to break even, when compared to the A380

Any basis for stating this?

BA does have plenty of slots at LHR, don't they?

Remember, LHR is slot limited hence if it is attract 90 million pax per year when T5 is fully functional, average aircraft size will have to go up (not forgetting that BA have already come out saying that a new 3rd runway should be used in helping to preserve and enhance UK domestic services = a few more 737s/A320s to be used, and I believe they aren't anticipating the use of widebodied aircraft on this runway).

David
 
Shamrock_747
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 7:00 pm

A lot of BA's 744s were built in the early 1990s, so they'll probably be replaced sometime between 2010 and 2025. I think BA will probably go for a long haul fleet with four aircraft sizes - A332/7E7, A345/772, A346/773 and A380 (or 747X if it ever happens).

Declan
 
na
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 9:06 pm

At current stage problem-ridden BA has 3 options for its future top-end fleet:
A380, 744X and 773ER

The 747X, as much as I hope it will become reality soon, is just a project.
The 773ER doesn´t make a flagship for an airline like BA and would leave them clearly behind the main competitors.
So it seems inevitable that we´ll see the A380 in BA colours, maybe in a fleet-mix with the 773ER or A346, or the 744X. Remember that when the A380 comes it´ll combine new technology of more than a decade over the 777 that´ll be a slowly aging type by then!
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 9:13 pm

"""Remember, LHR is slot limited hence if it is attract 90 million pax per year when T5 is fully functional, average aircraft size will have to go up """

13 percent of LHR departures are airplanes with more than 300 seats.
Replacing this small percentage of airplanes with a 600-seat or larger airplane will improve air traffic by only 5 percent. The overwhelming number of flights – 87 percent – are airplanes smaller than 300 seats. Airlines can reduce congestion more effectively by migrating from their smaller airplanes to the next largest airplane size.

LHR Departures

Seats
100 or less..........25
101-150.............315
151-200.............120
201-250.............45
251-300.............60
301-350.............25
351-400.............20
401-450.............40

These numbers are approx. Took them from a graph.

BA may buy the A380, but I don't think LHR will be the driving force behind the decision.

Cheers
 
JAL
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 9:54 pm

They eventually would have to since their rivals Virgin and SIA has already ordered it. I also expect JAL ; ANA and Cathay to eventually order the A380.
 
na
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 11:40 pm

JAL,
that depends on whether Boeing introduces a radically enhanced 747 variant or not.
If there is one with comparable economics to the A380 before 2010 I could see CX, ANA, JAL, Northwest (and UA if they survive) and a few other airlines that fly 744s now and didn´t choose A380s so far order the 747NG instead of the A380.
 
cedarjet
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Tue Aug 19, 2003 11:41 pm

BA are going to buy a LOT of A380s. This airline carries a LOT of longhaul traffic - they are in the top 3 of 747-400 fleet size (about 50 aircraft, maybe a few less nowadays) and a lot of them are flown in pairs, "wingtip-to-wingtip" to Tokyo, Los Angeles, Sydney etc. The two daily flights to Sydney leave LHR 15 minutes apart! I think Tokyo's the same. And as for JFK, check their schedule, it's not far off an hourly schedule, I think there's six 747s a day (plus Concorde for the top end traveller, and two 777s to Newark).

I think BA'll hold off until T5 has a completion date, and that will coincide with a sales drought for the A380, the eight or whatever airlines (Qatar, Qantas, KE, EK, SQ et al) will have had their initial fleets, and there'll be a lull. BA will get a great price by placing their order in 2005 (for an '08 delivery) instead of now. But they'll buy more than Emirates, in the fullness of time. Probably more than anyone, in fact.
 
richierich
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 1:50 am

I sort of disagree with Cedarjet on this one.
While BA is the prominent long-haul carrier in the UK (Virgin does not have nearly as many routes), they will not buy the A380 and fly it "wingtip-to-wingtip" on distant routes. That is absurd. Anyway, LHR-JFK is hardly hourly. I think it is six a day right now (seven with Concorde, which was never really an option for most people). My point is the A380 may not be the default aircraft for the future for this airline.

The real challenge facing British is trying to predict how future traffic will look in many different markets. Can a route, say LHR-HKG, be better served with two or three daily 777s rather than only one or two A380s?

My guess is that BA WILL end up buying the A380, but only AFTER Boeing officially (sadly) abandons the 747 program. The A380 may also be close to launch at that time... maybe by then BA can decide whether Airbus' promised economics are living up to the advanced billing.

Take my word for it, it is not lost on BA that Virgin is in with the A380 and will undoubtedly steal a lot of glory for being a launch carrier. But the A380 comes with a lot of baggage (no pun intended), in that it requires a lot of capital improvements and changes at airports it will serve, thus limiting its appeal. There is no guarantee that it will be a success. Many great business decisions are made by taking a gamble and a chance. VS has done this with the A380. I think BA is wise to sit and wait for a while to see what happens. They are obviously happy with the 773 and maybe different versions of this twin will make the most economical long-haul choice for this airline for the next one or two decades.
 
ScottB
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 3:50 am

I think Shenzhen makes an excellent point about LHR departures and slots; that being that only one in eight (or fewer) flights to and from LHR are currently flown by the largest aircraft available. Given that BA is the largest slotholder at LHR, it would be quite easy for them to upgauge flights in smaller markets (i.e. from A320 to 757/767/7E7) rather than add the complexity of a new fleet of A380's which it might well be difficult to profitably fill.

Again, BA has been reducing the size of its aircraft to improve its margins. They've found that are more profitable by not having to dump tons of deeply discounted economy seats on the market to try to fill the coach cabin of a 747-400. Why on earth would they want to have to sell EVEN MORE ultra-cheap seats to fill an A380?
 
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PW100
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RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:29 am

13 percent of LHR departures are airplanes with more than 300 seats.
Replacing this small percentage of airplanes with a 600-seat or larger airplane will improve air traffic by only 5 percent. The overwhelming number of flights – 87 percent – are airplanes smaller than 300 seats. Airlines can reduce congestion more effectively by migrating from their smaller airplanes to the next largest airplane size...


While it may be true that only one in eight aircraft in LHR are 300+ seaters, replacing smaller aircraft with larger isn't that easy. Remember that the vast majority of the small aircraft are European flights, roughly half of them by BA/BD and the other half by their European counterparts.

Let me take the AMS market as an example. The LHR-AMS currently looks like this:
BA: 7x daily
BD: 8x daily
KL: 9x daily

I don't seen BA reducing frequency on this route in order to free up a slot for a long haul 777 flight [or 744, or 7E7 ot whatever]. If BA reduces the frequency on LHR-AMS, but increasing aircraft size, many pax will go to BD or KL since they have a better choice of frequency.
Furthermore I don't see KL giving up slots in order for BA to increase long haul flying [unless KL will join One World, but that's a whole different story . . . ].
So while it may be true that there is a lot to gain by replacing the smaller aircraft [737/32X] with bigger aircraft [767/A300], this simply is not going to happen. BA still needs to be competitive on their short haul routes where frequencies are king. Reducing 737/32X frequencies is not going to help their Euro-routes.

On the other hand, frequencies are not so important on long haul flights. I don't think many pax will prefer BA on LHR-JFK just because BA has 8 [eight!!] daily flights versus only 3 or 4 of the competition. Check out the number of 747/777 flights, and the number of long haul routes were BA outflies the competition frequency-wise. BA has no incentive to further increase long haul frequencies when they already outperform the competition on most [if not all] of these routes frequency-wise.

Just to give you an idea of the shear number of long haul BA 744/777 flights out of LHR.
BA longf haul 744/777 flights ex LHR valid through 25 Oct 03 as published per BA on-line PDF TimeTable:
[all flights daily unless stated otherwise]

Flight#, equipment, route
083 777 LHR - ABV 5x weekly
073 777 LHR - AUH - MUS
125 744 LHR - BAH - DOH
039 777 LHR - BJS 5x weekly
009 744 LHR - BD), Thailand">BKK - SYD
139 744 LHR - BOM
213 744 LHR - BOS
215 777 LHR - BOS
239 777 LHR - BOS
155 744 LHR - CAI
249 777 LHR - CCS 3x weekly
147 744 LHR - CCU 2x weekly
059 744 LHR - CPT
145 744 LHR - DCC 3x weekly
143 744 LHR - DEL
219 777 LHR - DEN
107 777 LHR - DXB
109 777 LHR - DXB
185 777 LHR - EWR
187 777 LHR - EWR
189 777 LHR - EWR
247 777 LHR - GIG - EZE 3x weekly
025 744 LHR - HKG
027 744 LHR - HKG
153 777 LHR - HRE 2x weekly
295 777 LHR - IAH
133 777 LHR - Jeddah 4x weekly
113 744 LHR - JFK
115 744 LHR - JFK
117 744 LHR - JFK
175 744 LHR - JFK
177 744 LHR - JFK
179 744 LHR - JFK 4x weekly [+3x weekly 777]
183 744 LHR - JFK 6x weekly
055 744 LHR - JNB
057 744 LHR - JNB
157 777 LHR - KWI
269 744 LHR - LAX
283 744 LHR - LAX
075 744 LHR - LOS
255 777 LHR - LUN 2x weekly
035 744 LHR - MAA 2x weekly
123 744 LHR - MAU 3x weekly
243 744 LHR - MEX 3x weekly
207 744 LHR - MIA
209 744 LHR - MIA
065 744 LHR - NBO [2x weekly LHR - NBO - SEY]
005 744 LHR - NRT
007 744 LHR - NRT
295 777 LHR - ORD
297 777 LHR - ORD
299 777 LHR - ORD
067 744 LHR - PHL
069 777 LHR - PHL
289 777 LHR - PHX
263 777 LHR - Riyaad 4x weekly
275 777 LHR - SAN 5x weekly
049 744 LHR - SEA
285 744 LHR - SFO
287 744 LHR - SFO
015 744 LHR - SIN - SYD
017 744 LHR - SIN - MEL
085 744 LHR - YVR
093 744 LHR - YYZ
097 744 LHR - YYZ [3x weekly]
099 744 LHRYYZ

Please note the number long haul destinations that already have multiple daily 777/744 flights. Mind you, these are the worst days of aviation, never mind 2008 when BA would be able to receive their first A380 . . . :
JFK 7x daily [not counting Concorde]
BOS 3x daily
EWR 3x daily
ORD 3x daily
DXB 2x daily
HKG 2x daily
JNB 2x daily
LAX 2x daily
MIA 2x daily
NRT 2x daily
PHL 2x daily
SFO 2x daily
SIN 2x daily
SYD 2x daily
YYZ 1.4 x daily

256 weekly 744 departures from LHR, or 36,5 per day. All long haul!
145 weekly 777 departures from LHR, or 20,7 per day. All long haul!
Not counting the long haul flights out of LGW.

Nah . . . BA would not need the A380 . . . yeah right!

Please note that the A380 will NOT ease LHR congestion, for the reasons mentioned above in earlier posts. Generally speaking, it is not the high capacity wide body that causes the congestion, rather the numerous A320/737 sized aircraft flying into the same airport.
However the A380 does provide BA with a unique opportunity to increase revenue by up to 35% WITHOUT adding any additional flights which aren't available anyway at slot constrained LHR [never mind slot constrained destinations like NRT]. If BA wants to increase pax numbers, there isn't much choice other than increasing equipment gauge. If they are already at 777/747 level, next step obviously will be the A380.

PW100
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:38 am

That list can't be complete either, it lists no IAD nonstops on the 744 and I saw 2 BA 744s come in so far today.

N
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:39 am

I would rather have a choice of flight times than one flight with over 500 people on it. I remember that the original Braniff was one to offer the choice of flights over one or two wide bodies being flown on a certain route. And it proved to be the right move for them at the time. History does tend to repeat itself. Also look how profitable and accepted the LH and Privitair flights have been? Those are all on narrow body aircraft?
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:46 am

Its one thing to offer varying frequencies.

Operating a pair of 744s within, say, 10 or 15 minutes of each other, isn't the best way to do it. A 10 or 15 minute spread doesn't really increase passenger choice.

If BA could consolidate some of those tip-to-tip flights onto 1 A380, they'd almost certainly reduce cost for the route, fairly substantially.

N
 
donder10
Posts: 6945
Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2001 5:29 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:16 am

Only HKG and SYD live within such a close period of time.NRT departures are a couple of hours apart as are the 2 JNB flights.
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 7:21 pm

Richierich,

BA does not have any 777-300's nor did they order any, if memory serves me correct.
 
osteogenesis
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue May 27, 2003 9:44 pm

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:12 pm

Luv2fly ,

I would rather have a choice of flight times than one flight with over 500 people on it.

You are forgetting the A380 is supposed to be 16% less costly per seat. That is the most important argument in favor of the A380. This could mean more profit for the airline or cheaper prices. Would you still prefer the 250 plane if the 500 offers tickets at 15% lower cost?
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1666
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:27 pm

""Operating a pair of 744s within, say, 10 or 15 minutes of each other, isn't the best way to do it. A 10 or 15 minute spread doesn't really increase passenger choice.""

Since every airline flying LHR/AustralAsia all leave around the same time, one could argue there are dozen of airplanes flying to the same destinations at the same time.

In 2006/2007 we will have how many A380s departing LHR at the same general time heading to Asia? Qantas, Malaysian, Singapore, Korean.. (plus the 744s/777s/A340s)

BA may be smart to "not" have this airplane, simply because there may be a capacity glut, on A380 dominated routes, out of LHR shortly after the airplanes inception. Wait a few years, and see what happens.

Remember, there is limited airports where this thing will be able to land, and most all of them will have an A380 operator based there.

""However the A380 does provide BA with a unique opportunity to increase revenue by up to 35% WITHOUT adding any additional flights which aren't available anyway at slot constrained LHR''

It isn't a unique opportunity to BA. What is the revenue increase if they swap out a 777-200 to a 777-300. All airlines have the same opportunity.

""So while it may be true that there is a lot to gain by replacing the smaller aircraft [737/32X] with bigger aircraft [767/A300], this simply is not going to happen. BA still needs to be competitive on their short haul routes where frequencies are king. Reducing 737/32X frequencies is not going to help their Euro-routes.""

My bet is that larger airplanes are replacing smaller everyday. Nobody said you had to change a A319 to a A300 or a 737-700 to a 767. How about a A319 to a A320 or a 737-700 to a 737-800. Probably a 20 percent increase right there, each time. Look at the possibilities to increase revenue/seats in the <150 to the <200 seat range out of LHR versus the >400 seats.

Seats
100 or less..........25
101-150.............315
151-200.............120
201-250.............45
251-300.............60
301-350.............25
351-400.............20
401-450.............40

My opinion is that LHR isn't the driving force behind BA's decision to buy or not to buy the A380. The driving force is if the RPK is there to support the airplane (theirs and others) on the limited city pairs in which it will be operated.

Cheers
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 10:34 pm

Osteogenesis

That is if the airlines pass those savings on to you....
 
VgnAtl747
Posts: 1333
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2001 3:59 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Wed Aug 20, 2003 11:10 pm

This may have already been answered, but who is the launch customer for the A380?
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8968
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Thu Aug 21, 2003 12:29 am

Launch airlines are Emirates and Singapore. Followed by Cathay Pacific, Air France, Qantas, Lufthansa, Malaysia, Qatar, Koreanair (total orders to date 116 and counting). Hate to piss people off by saying this, but what's interesting (and unremarked upon) is that not only have the Americans been left behind in the creation of the hardware (Airbus instead of Boeing), but it's interesting that none of the US AIRLINES are part of this latest leap in aviation technology either - in the old days it was always a US airline at the forefront including the biggest jets ie Pan Am with the 707 and 747, Northwest with the 747-400 etc.
 
Sjoerd
Topic Author
Posts: 351
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:47 pm

RE: Should BA Buy The A380?

Thu Aug 21, 2003 12:39 am

Didn't know CX ordered the A380.

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