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MaLOT767
Topic Author
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Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:23 am

I was curious , will Boeing create a Jumbo that would compete with the Airbus 380 if so , when would it be ?

[Edited 2003-09-01 17:25:04]

[Edited 2003-09-01 17:26:18]
 
atrude777
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:27 am

I doubt so...they alreayd have a777-300 coming out so, it may be awhile, and who knows while the 7E7 is not jumbo" mit may be a better aircraft to replace the 747 although it seems more suited for the 757/767/777 replacements, just my two cents so don't anyone jump down my throat...

Alex.
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
GoAround
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:29 am

It's called the 747-800 - and you can see it here, in the launch customer's - Virgin - colours...

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinephotos/search/photo_search.php?id=00000056  Big grin

GoAround
GoAround
 
Jaspike
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:35 am

There's also the 797-200 too, AF is one of the first customers:

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinephotos/search/photo_search.php?id=00000055

 Big grin
Josh
 
FlagshipAZ
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:35 am

Probably not. The 747-400 is pretty much the ultimate commercial air transport now in terms of size, weight & human payload. The A380, while not yet a reality, will be more likely the biggest aircraft for the rest of this century. I simply can't comprehend anything being larger than these two passenger transports. And I haven't forgotten the C-5, AN-124 & AN-225. But these aircraft are more specializes in the freight role. No, I can't see Boeing topping the majestic 747 in my lifetime. Regards.
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." --Ben Franklin
 
dc-10 levo
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:53 am

 
ntspelich
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 1:14 am

Hadn't a design dubbed the 747-X been passed around by Boeing to compete with the A380? I believe it simply called for stretching the fuselage where the upper deck curves down to the main cabin, but Boeing pulled the pug on this one while it was nothing more than some ink on a page.

NS
United 717 heavy, you're facing the wrong way. Any chance you can powerback to get off of my deice pad?
 
dispatch
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:46 am

will Boeing create a Jumbo that would compete with the Airbus 380 if so , when would it be ?

Boeing will compete with the A380 when the market is ready for two such aircraft. Airbus at this moment has the advantage and has taken all the major orders which could be expected for an aircraft the size of the A380. So nothing there for Boeing at this time.
However, there will come a time when Sept. 11 and SARS and recession are all in the past. The number of people on this earth will increase and so will the number of people who will want to fly.
If the 747 concept has not been overtaken by something new at that point in time, there will be a double-decker 747 or something like that.

Peter
 
Bobs89irocz
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:07 am

Although the 747 desighn is very old, i do feel like this is the biggist plane Boeing will ever make. They might make a 747X or something but i dont see them making a full double decker airplane. Airbus took the cake on that deal and i dont see how or why the world would need any more then what airbus has to offer. Last i herd Airbus had 97 orders for the A380. If that is true that is more then i thought would be needed. I see Boeing going after the 757/767/A300/A310 replacement aircraft. That is a hell of a market right now and i think boeing can take it. Boeing has already made over 1000 747's. I dont think Airbus will ever sell anywhere near that amount of A380's. I see a big push for the 7E7.
 
dispatch
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:10 am

Actually, Airbus has 116 orders and 13 MOU's.
And of course Boeing will compete Airbus in this market, but NOT NOW.

Peter
 
scottysair
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:31 am

Which one is on the orders by A380 whose airlines is: Can you please comfirmed with their Airbus A380 and what is support questions about those B748ER? Is that was fake one of those airplane? I can't wait to see it with future of the new airplane are coming in with airlines. Well, talk ya later!  Smile

Scott W
 
motech722
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:33 am

I think that if the A380 is as big a success as it is being touted, then eventually Boeing will try to make an airplane to compete, but I doubt if it will be another model of the 747. While Boeing has proposed to develop the "superjumbo" 747-500X and 747-600X, extensive remakes of the 747 that would carry 500 passengers or more, they have been shelved due to the announcement from Boeing that said there wasn't the demand to justify the planes' $7 billion development cost.

The problem that Boeing has with the 747 is it is an old model, and to truly get an aircraft that will be as efficient as the A380 is supposed to be, you need to start from scratch. Simply lengthening the current 747 will not do it, and while some have proposed to stretch the upper deck all the way back, this is just a temporary fix, in fact, it would hurt the 747 program more than help it in that the stretched deck would add more weight to the plane and further reduce efficiency.

A number of years ago, Boeing had worked with NASA to see about a superjumbo in the way of the Blended Wing Body (BWB), which they still have data on and could build if the time is right. Boeing seems to want to usher in a new revolution in air transport, looking at the artist conceptions of the 7E7, and even the Sonic Cruiser, perhaps in 20 years (or less), Boeing will combine all of these designs and come out with a super-efficient super-jumbo jet.



 
tekelberry
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:38 am

it seems more suited for the 757/767/777 replacements

No. Yes. No.

The 757 will be replaced by 737NGs once they cease 757 production. The 737NGs are designed to compete with the A320 family.

The 7E7 is a replacement for the 767. It is also geared to agressively compete with the A330s.

The 777 is brand new. It is designed to compete with the small to mid-size A340s. There need be no replacements.

The 747-400 is still going strong. It is designed to compete with the larger A340s.

If Boeing ever decides to compete with the A380, it will most likely be an extension to the 747. I doubt it will ever happen though.
 
dispatch
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:45 am

The 747-400 is still going strong???
Boeing has not sold a single one in the past six months!!

Peter
 
JMChladek
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 5:54 am

Well, it seems to me that based on the success of the 747, Boeing will probably look at a super Jumbo if they can adapt it for bigger cargo applications easily once it is on the market. The reasoning for going with the 741s was that they could be adapted to carry large cargo once the passengers began flying SSTs. Well, the SST market didn't pan out like we thought it did, but most of the 741 and 742 fleet that still flies has indeed become cargo carrying while newer planes have come online. Boeing tends to like to hedge their bets a bit and give themselves options when the future isn't all that certain and a blended wing design might indeed be a worthy candidate in the not too distant future as it could carry a lot of passengers and/or a lot of wide cargo.

At this point, Boeing could start development of 746 thru 8, but it doesn't seem that likely as others have said because it is an adaptation on an older design when A380 is completely from the drawingboard. I could potentially see an update program to perhaps lengthen the fuselage on rebuilt 744s, but it wouldn't be easy as this isn't a 737 we are talking about here or a 747 SUD conversion.

Right now, I think Boeing is willing to sit back and see what A380 can do (or can't do) with interest. I'm sure they have a lot of work already done on some possible future designs, but are waiting to see what the market will bear first. Of course the risk with that is it would mean that its going to take close to a decade before something is ready for service, even if work on the project was to start today with firm orders from airlines around the world.
 
N243NW
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:01 am

Geez. You'd think AF would at least wash that nice new 797. But nooooo. Laugh out loud
-N243NW Big grin
B-52s don't take off. They scare the ground away.
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:05 am

and to truly get an aircraft that will be as efficient as the A380 is supposed to be, you need to start from scratch.

You're saying to make an older aircraft design more efficient than a newer model that it has to be redesigned from the ground up? I totally disagree. If that were the case, then the 737NG would have never seen the light of day. Besides, the only thing "old" about the 737NG is the fuselage. And no airliner to date has been designed anything outside of the "tube".
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
B2707SST
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 9:55 am

Right now, I think Boeing is willing to sit back and see what A380 can do (or can't do) with interest. I'm sure they have a lot of work already done on some possible future designs, but are waiting to see what the market will bear first.

I took a floor tour of the Everett plant last spring and spent several hours talking to Boeing engineers and managers. They didn't go into too much detail, for obvious reasons, but their strategy seems to be exactly this. They said they believed the A380 was having weight problems and might not meet performance guarantees -- I have no way of evaluating this statement, but they were very skeptical that Airbus could meet its specs. If the A380 flops, Boeing would probably return to the market with a 747X/Stretch proposal. If the A380 is a success and totally shuts out the 747-400, then they mentioned the possibility of a lower-risk 777-300 stretch to close some of the gap between the 777-300 and the A380, although they are coming up against the 80m box.

People have been criticizing Boeing for releasing and then canning several 747 proposals, which I understand and to some extent agree with, but on the other hand, they're testing the waters to see what the market wants. They don't know how the airlines will respond until they put together a proposal and show it around. That said, I think they have been a little stung by the total lack of interest in the 747-500X/600X and 747X/Stretch, both of which were pretty far along in the design stage. Now, Boeing's probably waiting to see what 7E7 developments can be grafted onto the 747, while trying to hit Airbus in a vulnerable spot (the A300/A310) rather than competing head-on in the super-jumbo sector. I think this is a smart decision that offers a much larger potential return than a radically new 747 product.

--B2707SST
Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
 
motech722
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 11:38 am

"You're saying to make an older aircraft design more efficient than a newer model that it has to be redesigned from the ground up?"

The A380 is based on nothing that Airbus, or anyone for that matter, has ever built. It is a brand new design that has been built from the ground up. Some may try to argue that Boeing could simply extend the upper deck of the B747 all the way, but the A380 is not based on the B747. A few years Airbus was negotiating with McDonnell Douglas on a cooperative effort for a super-jumbo dubbed the MD-12, but that fell through, and so Airbus has designed the A380 from scratch, and is now building it. Airbus has not taken an older aircraft design and made it better, rather has built a new plane from nothing.

While the B737NG is not a plane that was built from the "ground up" entirely (it is even stated that "the only thing "old" about the 737NG is the fuselage") it is in fact a "new" aircraft. The B737NG is a new design, having new engines, new wings, new flight decks, ect, ect.

The truth is, to be competitive, new aircraft must be built from nothing. Look at Boeing’s B777 for another example. It was not built from the B767, it was a totally new design, and yet in the beginning, Boeing had thought about marketing it as the B767X, but then went to the B777. If Boeing had used the older aircraft design of the B767, the B777 would never have been as efficient as it is. Look at the B767-400, even since it is a newer model of the B767-basic, it still is not as efficient, and will never be as efficient as the B777, (built from the ground up).

What I am saying about Boeing and their future super-jumbo projects is they will not be able to simply extend the B747 as it is today, to truly be competitive they will have to build a brand new aircraft. You can only extend an aircraft so far. The B747-500/-600 projects show this, in that the minute changes would not bring something anywhere close to a competitor to the A380. I truly believe that Boeing will play it's cards right and see what the A380 offers, and if the market is in fact good enough for many super jumbos, we might see the BWB in the future, or perhaps the re-emergence of the MD-12 (now that those plans are in the Boeing archives). But the truth is, the B747-line has seen it’s maturity, it is time for a new model, a new jumbo/super jumbo from the Boeing line.
 
AvObserver
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 11:42 am

"The 747-400 is still going strong???
Boeing has not sold a single one in the past six months!!"

Dispatch has a point-the 747's 'salad' days are probably over but I think there's still potential for it in the 450 seat niche-between the A346/773ER and the A380 IF Boeing can improve its' efficiency with 7E7 technology. Unlikely Boeing will again propose enlarging it to directly challenge the A380, THAT would require a new airplane. Excellent posts here, everyone!

 
tekelberry
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:15 pm

With all due respect to Boeing's engineers, why should we believe them? Unless they have a mole that works at Airbus (Airbus could also have a mole that works at Boeing), they wouldn't know what they were talking about. Pure speculation, nothing based on facts.
 
IndianGuy
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:22 pm

If you look at 747-400 orders post 98 or so, it has been relying more and more on the Freighter market. Very few are actually being built for pax service.

So when Boeing is having trouble selling even the 400 seater, how do u think it is going to sell a 600 seater?

-Roy
 
CanadianNorth
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:46 pm

Well I dont mean to start a war, But if you ask me I would say a good chunk of Boeing's future is in the 737/7E7/777 market. 737NG to replace 717/older 737s/752... 7E7 to replace the 753/762/763/764 and 777 to take over for itself and the 747.

CanadianNorth
HS-748, like a 747 but better!
 
sllevin
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 1:09 pm

I'll put my stake in the ground and state that, in my opinion, the 380's a good 20 years early. Beyond some specific routes for which orders have already been placed, I don't believe the market will take many more 380's in the future.

The 777-300ER and the A340-600 will be the largest successful aircraft of the next 20 years.

Boeing's floated concepts, and kept coming back to the same issue: There aren't even enough orders for one jumbo out there, much less two.

Steve
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 2:33 pm

Boeing are talking about a simple stretch of the 747-400 using new avionics and engines developed for the 7e7, with some design changes to the wing. They are simply trying to position it better between the A380-8 and the 777-300. A 7e7 / 777 operator may be more inclined to purchase a re-hashed 747 with improved performance and of course a common flight deck.

I don't see Boeing developing a direct competitor to the A380 within the decade, if ever.
 
Areopagus
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 2:48 pm

Motech quoted: "You're saying to make an older aircraft design more efficient than a newer model that it has to be redesigned from the ground up?"

The older aircraft design is the 747, and the newer model is the 380. No one suggested that the 380 is based on an older design.

B2707SST: That said, I think they have been a little stung by the total lack of interest in the 747-500X/600X and 747X/Stretch, both of which were pretty far along in the design stage.

Stung, sure. Bear in mind, though, that Boeing was trying to sell against the 380 sold at launch prices. Airbus can't go on selling at launch prices forever. Maybe it's not so outlandish to think Boeing might successfully market an upgraded 747 in the future, after they digest the cost of 7E7 development.

Tekelberry: The 777 is brand new. It is designed to compete with the small to mid-size A340s. There need be no replacements

Are you saying the 777-300ER doesn't compete with the A340-600?
 
JMChladek
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RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:38 pm

In the case of what Boeing knows or doesn't know about Airbus, they don't really need a mole. An engineer or engineering analyst has to take what is published and base it on his own experience to come up with some conclusions. Whether that conclusion is accurate or not isn't always clear. But Airbus has been pretty forthcoming about major details surrounding its big plane for the most part and harder to find details can be located elsewhere.

In the case of Boeing, they've been building wide bodies longer then anyone and the experience from McDonnell Douglas essentially doubles the experience on the part of Boeing as these were two different manufacturers that used different approaches to the same problems before the merger. Boeing is the most knowledgeable in wide body design right now and the 777 project gives them insight into the pros and cons of certain materials used and what they could achieve with what they built. MDD brings the knowledge that they gained from the C-17 project and the MD-11.

Also, airlines a lot of times like to talk to more then one aircraft manufacturer as buying a new aircraft is a major investment and the customer is usually looking to see who can provide the best deal, not always which aircraft is better. If the unit cost is a bit higher then what the customer wants to pay, the manufacturer usually tells them some details of the design and how it can help their bottom line to help sweeten the deal. Granted there can be confidentiality agreements, but a lot of information can be gleamed from what is not said rather then what is said in talks between manufacturers and an airline, especially concerning what the competition is up to.

Only time where things get really secretive is when an airline becomes a launch customer, as they then provide solid input to the designer to make sure the design is what they really want and at that point, the airline's reputation is on the line with the manufacturer. But even then, they look and see what the competition is doing also as they like to keep their options open just in case things don't pan out. Heck, Juan Trippe was notorious for this at Pan Am when he bought both DC-8s AND 707s for his airlines and he even went to Lockheed before Boeing to try and get them to build a plane for the job that the 747 was ultimately built for.

With that being said though, I'm sure Airbus has a firm grasp of their problems and it will be an educational experience for all observers if the A380 performs as expected right out of the box.
 
osteogenesis
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue May 27, 2003 9:44 pm

RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Tue Sep 02, 2003 4:37 pm

B2707SST:

I took a floor tour of the Everett plant last spring and spent several hours talking to Boeing engineers and managers. They didn't go into too much detail, for obvious reasons, but their strategy seems to be exactly this. They said they believed the A380 was having weight problems and might not meet performance guarantees

Airbus has officially accepted they had some weight problems, but that they changed the materials on some components and that they are right on track now. They have also said lately that they are having better then expected results with its GLARE components.

I have said it in the past, but the A380 has only 25% more capacity then the 747-400. The traffic will double in the next 15 years. I know there will be fragmentation but if traffic really doubles the routes that know use 767, A330, A340, 777 could well use the A380.

I can understand why people say the A380 is to early taking this forecasted growth into account.

I believe that if the A380 were a Boeing project many of you would be convinced of its huge potential. Take of your nationalistic glasses and reason for a change.

Buy the way I also think that Boeing has made a very wise decision with the 7E7. I think Airbus has to hurry up, because there is need for a 767, 757, A310, A330 replacement. The A330 is too big for many airlines.
 
Greg
Posts: 5539
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:11 am

RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Wed Sep 03, 2003 1:50 am

You can argue technology all you want, but the Airbus has already stated that the 20% seat mile cost savings in the A380 compared to the 744 is 95% due to the increase in seating--not on any kind of techie breakthrough.

A modified wing on any stretched 744 would put it in the same league.

Airbus is betting that those 100 extra seats will be filled..and the profit potential IS that much greater.

While a beautiful evolution of what airliners have become, there is nothing revolutionary about the 380 (and nor does Airbus want there to be...it's just something else that could go wrong...).

It's just more composite pieces and systems that have already been proven on other aircraft......
 
motech722
Posts: 177
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2003 12:10 am

RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Wed Sep 03, 2003 2:29 am

Sllevin,

I think you've hit the nail right on the head. I will totally agree with you that the A380 is a few years early. In this day and age, when so many airlines (at least in the 'States, not sure about the rest of the world) are more concerned about frequency than capacity, the smaller jets are better suited. The larger jets that will certainly continue to be big sellers are the B777 and A340-600, both very nice airplanes.

While the A380 will be used on some of the trans-oceanic flights, it will take some time for it to mature to its fullest potential. I look back at the history books concerning the B747, and it took time for it to mature. I think it would be in the best interest of Boeing to concentrate on the 7E7 to fill the gap in that market with a new, high-efficient airplane and let Airbus wander in the super-jumbo world.

Boeing's market forecast for the interim is a low need for super jumbos, while Airbus says the need is high. The real question always is who is right? Perhaps Airbus says there is more of a need to better market the plane, but perhaps Boeing says there is less of a need to discourage possible orders for the A380. Either way, while Airbus is working on the large aircraft, it is a good idea for Boeing to develop a new aircraft to replace the B767-type aircraft. If they can get what they are proposing, Boeing could very well take this category by storm, and have a huge success.

If anything, Boeing perhaps is playing this the smart way, waiting to see how the A380 need and reception is, and then, after the A380 is completed, and the "real" specs come out, then it will give Boeing something else to improve upon. Boeing did this with the B777 after the A340 first came out, and will be able to do it again in the next couple decades to compete with the A380.

In addition, I want to thank Areopagus for pointing out to me what I had said in my original post about how making "older aircraft designs more efficient". You were able to explain what I was trying to say better than I could phrase it. Thank you.
 
L.1011
Posts: 2172
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2001 7:46 am

RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Wed Sep 03, 2003 2:44 am

McDonnell Douglas brought the knowledge of what not to do with the
MD-11.  Big grin
 
B747FAN
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2000 12:07 am

RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:25 am

Greeting,

Motech722 said - "I think you've hit the nail right on the head. I will totally agree with you that the A380 is a few years early. In this day and age, when so many airlines (at least in the 'States, not sure about the rest of the world) are more concerned about frequency than capacity"

I agree with you on this point. Seeing as only NWA and United operate 747-400's there is more of a need for frequency in the USA. There is so much traffic at the airports, and people looking for convenience in air travel, The A380 will not be readlily adaptable to US markets. The large European markets are a different story. Airlines like BA, AF, LH will definately benefit with the A380.

It is my belief, that the7E7 is directed to US carries and to foreign markets looking to replace 767s and A330s. Boeing has forecasted well, as the market for the smaller twin aisle aircraft is far greater than for a super jumbo.

As much as I am a fan of the 747-400, I believe that it is in its golden years (i would hate to see them go). The 380 will do well for its market designation.But, the only question in my mind is disembarking 600 passengers at congested airports like LHR, JFK, ATL, ZRH, CDG, SFO, LAX etc... The immigration lines and baggage claim will be torture. As it is, it take an hour to go through customs and immigration at these "HUB" airports. Imagine if three 380s arrived at the same time from the same carrier.

Just my take on the subject.
) He turns not back who is bound to a star. - Leonardo Da Vinci.
 
osteogenesis
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue May 27, 2003 9:44 pm

RE: Will There Be A Bigger Boeing Jumbo?

Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:36 am

Greg:

It's just more composite pieces and systems that have already been proven
on other aircraft......

If I may correct your sentence:

It's just more composite pieces and systems that have already been proven on other Airbus aircraft...  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

Airbus woke Boeing up. Airbus introduced many novelties to airliners, and Boeing had to follow. Aircraft building is always evolution. In this case the difference is. Who is first?
And the answer is simple: Airbus.

But this may change some day. But I am not seeing it so far.

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