Now that is a shocker! I would think Southwest would use existing gates that other airlines use at PHL. I can't wait to see those 737s flying over my house, as I live right under the holding pattern for PHL.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031028/airlines_southwest_2.html They are quoting WN directly, so I'd say it's about as confirmed as its going to get. Though in a related story the 40 flights is being questioned.

Rgds
Duane

well, now the big question..... WHEN will southwest begin hiring for all the people they will likely need for that operation and HOW MANY? It would have to be months before May to allow time for training, etc

40 flights is likely to need a bunch of people.



After 9/11 WN ramped up ground ops hiring in a big way to deal with all of the extra TSA regulations during the check in and boarding process. Now that check in and boarding processes have streamlined, there is a dearth of employees and much of Ground Operations is overstaffed. In last weeks conference call CFO Gary Kelly, spoke of wanting to get our "headcount" down. The most recent flight attendant training class is largely filled with internal transfers from other departments. Philly is an desirable place to live an the move is paid by the company I expect the openings at PHL will probably be largely filled by existing employees.

PHL-BWI??? If Southwest couldn't make a go of Islip-Providence--and then citing Amtrak as 'a reason why,' then why should Southwest be expected to succeed on PHL-BWI? Same circumstance, no?

I'm speechless. Absolutely speechless. I never thought in a million years I would see Southwest here in Philadelphia. I am very glad they will be flying here, though. I must say, however, I am now very worried for USAirways. They haven't been turning the best numbers out since getting out of Chapter 11 and now the largest low-fare airline in the world is setting up shop at USAirways most important hub. Forty-flights a day is alot and it will only get bigger as people take a liking to WN. If I were USAirways I would be in a corner crying right now...

-Tony

Also, everyone is claiming that Southwest will 'start' with 40 flights. Is that factual? My guess is that someone got their phrases mixed up; much more likely is that Southwest EVENTUALLY will have 40 flights at PHL. On the surface, this appears to go against the so-called Southwest model. In other words, by going to a big city airport--especially one in the congested and weather delay-prone Northeast--Southwest is going against everything they have espoused. So, I am a little concerned here. The stock market will be the litmus test here; we'll see how it reacts to this news.

i agree - starting with 40 flights seems a little aggressive and presumptuous, even for WN. adding up to 40 flights by _____ seems more likely. then again, nobody thought they'd go to PHL in the first place....

Considering what WN has done to U in the past (BWI, Florida etc) I think this is going to be a huge hit to U, which finally might drive them to a merger or out right failure.

They have gone through bankruptcy and their costs are still too high, David Siegel was complaining about this very fact after their 3rd-Q results were announced.

WN is not going to start flying to small markets like BOI or SMF, they are going to steal existing markets away from U. They went after U head on at BWI, they are going to do the same at PHL.

LAS, FLL, MCO, TPA are the sure bets right away.

I think this decision to go directly into PHL even considering the delays etc is a direct effect to their experience at ISP.

When WN went into Islip there was no B6, they were the main LCC in the NYC area. However the success of B6 at JFK which is considerably closer to NYC has cut off WN's potential growth at ISP. I think WN was banking on drawing huge crowds to ISP from Queens, Brooklyn, Connecticut etc. However B6's phenomenal growth and success at JFK has pretty much cut WN off from the NYC market.

WN at ISP is feeding soley off Long Island's substantial population, which keeps it going but B6 at JFK limits WN's growth potential at ISP considerably.

WN probably learned a lesson from ISP, they would not be cut-off from another market by a Low Cost carrier who decides to fly out of close-in airports which are congested.

WN at ABE or ACY would not be as successfully as Airtran out of PHL, so if WN wants to capture the Philly market why go 50-60 miles away from the City when they can fly right into PHL. The condition U is in only makes it easier, this is going to be a huge success for WN and possibly the end for US Airways.

if WN chooses to serve the NE markets to start, 40 flights is easily accomplished. PHL-PVD, MHT are only about an hour each way, there could easily be 5 round trips daily to start. BUF/ALB are about an hour or so too. Florida is about 2-2 1/2 hrs. The 40, dailies will add up pretty quick when they start doing thier short-hop, high frequency stuff...

BTW Amtrak had nothing to do with PVD-ISP not working (it's a 5 hour drive beacause of the geography of Long Island) even though it is only 75 miles or so in a striaght line. O&D between the two cities wasn't enough to keep the filghts, too many of the PVD pax went through to Florida via ISP, stealing revenue from ISP to Florida. Thats why they kept the ISP to Florida flights and axed the ISP-PVD portions.

If you think about it, PHL is the last large city with a population of over a 1,000,000 in the U.S. (other than NYC) to not receive WN service, By adding service to PHL, WN is knocking on the back door of NYC much like when WN started SAN service going to L.A.

But I am betting on PIT being next in line. The intrastate PHL-PIT has been dominated by US for years and would be perfect for WN. Also, by adding PHL as an "anchor" city along with BWI on the east coast, they can now fill in the Mid-Atlantic states with flights to not only ORF and RDU but possibly RIC, CAE and GSO with continuing service to FLA. Maybe they can do US a favor and stay out of CLT and leave them something. Boy first BWI, then PHL and probably PIT next. They must really hate WN! US better grab STL while they can.

If PHL does have delays and snow problems worse than BWI, then I would expect WN to stay out of scheduling "thru flights" that continue on to MHT, BDL and PVD. At least to see how things go the first winter around. Sounds like another SFO in the brew. WN didn't schedule any thru flights through there because of constant delays and eventually dropped it. But PHL doesn't have an OAK in their backyard so WN might have to learn to live with it.

I thought that WN coming to ROC would be the ultimate shocker right now, but I was wrong. Going up against a US Air at a major extremely delay prone airport is rolling the dice bigtime. It goes against everything that has made WN successful. Time will tell.

Mike

If you think about it, PHL is the last large city with a population of over a 1,000,000 in the U.S. (other than NYC) to not receive WN service, By adding service to PHL, WN is knocking on the back door of NYC much like when WN started SAN service going to L.A.

What? There are a few large cities (1,000,000+) that don't have WN service. ATL, DEN and MSP all come to mind.

FlyPNS1: I guess then I should say the only city with a "core" population of over 1,000,000 as I go by city proper populations. For instance, Atlanta's population is only 416,000 (according to the 2000 census), but I am sure there are about 3,000,000 in the metro area. I do not have metropolitan figures of all the cities in the U.S. handy but I do have city populations handy and that is what I went by. Sorry for the confusion.

STT757 is absolutely right. WN realizes they have to go after the big traditional markets or run the risk of being relegated to tiny secondary airports. They have changed their strategy and are willing to accept the delays and higher costs in order to have access to some of the top US markets.
Although this will move WN's strength farther up the east coast, they still won't be a significant player in the primary NYC or BOS markets - not a great position to be in considering none of them have capacity or gates available for WN but do have other LCC's there, making it hard for WN to argue that they need access. Every airline at BOS, JFK, LGA, and EWR will use every gate and/or slot they have enough to make sure they don't lose them.
I don't think they'll stop w/ just 4 gates at PHL. Even 40 flights/day at PHL just scratches the surface for local demand potential; they don't need to carry connecting passengers through PHL - that job goes to BWI.

The 40 was definitely someone's wishful thinking. From the Southwest press release: The carrier, making the announcement today in Philadelphia with airport and local officials, will arrive in May 2004 and utilize four gates at the airport to bring Philadelphia area residents up to 14 daily flights initially to a variety of short and longhaul destinations. Southwest will begin service with five new aircraft deliveries from Boeing. Flights and fares will be announced later. http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031028/datu052_1.html

I have to agree with STT57 and WorldTraveler, this is probably the closest WN has ever come to a 'pre-emptive' strike. The industry has fundamentally changed, and WN, once the only significant LCC in the game, now is facing an increasingly crowded field. Where once they could simply go forward with a simple (and elegant) growth plan, for the most part disregarding the majors actions, they now must consider and respond to a number of carriers, all of whom have a similar strategy, and whom are chasing the same market segment.

Next year will shape up to be very interesting in the N.E.!

To add a bit of fuel to the speculation on possible WN non-stops from PHL, the largest markets (over 100 daily pax) in 4Q02 from PHL were (daily pax counts in parentheses, WN cities marked with *):
ORD/MDW (2143) *
ATL (1995)
MCO (1990) *
LAX (1238) *
FLL (1223) *
TPA (1122) *
BOS (1116)
SFO (1049)
DFW (1006)
LAS (908) *
IAH/HOU (676) *
MIA (653)
PIT (646)
PHX (645) *
MSP (595)
DTW (592) *
DEN (583)
PBI (555) *
RDU (517) *
MSY (467) *
JAX (429) *
SAN (408) *
SEA (403) *
CLT (378)
CMH (365) *
MCI (331) *
STL (311) *
RSW (301)
IND (289) *
MEM (232)
BNA (215) *
GSO (185)
SAT (184) *
MKE (176)
SLC (172) *
CVG (165)
PDX (148) *
CLE (143) *
SJC (142) *
DL / KBDL), USA - Connecticut">BDL (140) *
AUS (135) *
PWM (134)
PVD (130) *
BUF (121) *
MHT (120) *
ABQ (117) *
SMF (111) *
SAV (107)
MSN (106)

So I think it's pretty clear that we'll see flights to MDW, MCO, LAX, FLL, TPA, LAS, PHX, and possibly HOU, PBI, RDU, MSY, JAX, SAN, SEA, MCI, STL, BNA, PVD, MHT, DL / KBDL), USA - Connecticut">BDL, BUF, SJC, etc.

They said it was goint to be a shocker and it sure is. My bet for a shocker was BOS, and I think we may still see BOS happen once DL's Terminal C gates free up or US goes Chapter 7 and its Terminal B gates become available. Recall that WN serves five airports in Southern California, so serving four airports within two hours of Boston isn't too far-fetched.

The other interesting point is that PHL's highly-touted delays aren't really a huge factor until after 3 or 4 PM. BWI sees significant delays in the late afternoon/early evening as well, and yet WN continues to grow like gangbusters there.

You're right, Haveric, here it is from the horse's mouth:

http://www.southwest.com/about_swa/press/prindex.html

That's really interesting, STT757, about Islip. Your argument makes sense to me. I've thought for a long time that Southwest's biggest, maybe only, strategic blunder during the 1990's was not to jump on JFK. The New York Congressional delegation would have tripped over themselves to get WN the JFK slots that they later got for JetBlue. And JetBlue has worked with the FAA to devise creative flight routings that have given them very respectable on-time departure figures. Islip is a consolation prize compared to JFK.

And now not only JetBlue is around, but Song is up and running. Neeleman made an interesting remark in this AvWeek article yesterday:

http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_aviationdaily_story.jsp?id=news/jet10243.xml

N. says that JetBlue must "stake a claim in Boston and prove that we can make it in a big city other than New York." Song is getting bigger in Boston, and JetBlue apparently seems to think they cannot afford to be left out.

The low-fare competition in the densest aviation corridor in the country is rising, and apparently WN no longer thinks it can sit it out. All of WN's stations in the Northeast are secondary market airports, not one is located within a major metropolitan area. PHL will change that.

The next question: if WN is willing to enter terribly delay-prone PHL, does this mean that EWR is a possibility? PHL would more than pay for itself with O & D from Trenton on south, and an EWR station could easily subsist alongside it.

WorldTraveler is also right that 40 flights--which as Searqpx noted was only speculation about the starting # of flights--is only the beginning for PHL. If Nashville and St. Louis can each support around 80 flights, PHL's far bigger population base can support more than that.

Finally, WN must think US is truly on the ropes. US had bad results last quarter and Siegel warned that more substantial job cuts are in the near future. I don't have figures available--if someone has them (OUBoy?) by all means share--but things are looking worse for US than they did, say, around June. PHL will be a very expensive prize for WN, though. BWI was not of life-or-death importance to US. PHL is. Let the low-fare competition begin.

Also...could US's announcement that they plan to operate full schedule in PIT thru September, have something to do with it? If WN felt that more aggressive growth in the Northeast was needed, PHL is certainly a more important market than PIT. However, PIT's turn for WN will eventually come in any event, I think.

Jim

That is a shocker!

I would have thought ABE would have a lock on it. I guess not.

Well, maybe I can fly cheaper to see my relatives now.

I hope they add PHL-CLE!


redngold

The press is now saying only fourteen flights; not forty:

Southwest To Operate 14 Daily Flights In Philadelphia

Tuesday October 28, 3:56 pm ET
By Elizabeth Souder and Dinah Brin, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Southwest Airlines Co. will open service in Philadelphia in May with up to 14 daily flights.
During a press conference Thursday, the Dallas airline said it will use four gates in Philadelphia, and will announce in December routes and fares for the new destination. Southwest said it would offer short- and long-haul service from the airport.

Charles J. Isdell, director of aviation for the airport, said no monetary sweeteners were offered to Southwest. The airline will get some back-office support, he said.

Southwest chairman Herb Kelleher said the airline will initially employ around 100 to 120 people in Philadelphia.

Many have mentioned the delays and I think that may definitely hamper their on time performance.

During a heavy de-icing operation I have had to re-spray the same aircraft three times in PHL (even with a potent glycol mixture). It's a long taxi down to 9L from terminal E.

Shocking doesnt even begin to describe it for me...just walked into my dorm and checked a.net to see this...I am in disbelief, then I started hopping around like an excited little kid...this is the biggest PHL news in years...

Cant wait to see their route announcement in December, will be very interesting!

Greg

But PHL doesn't have an OAK in their backyard

Wilmington, DE????

Some points:

US only had 4 banks at BWI, and that hub was cannibalized by PHL to the north and DCA to the south. PHL is a much more fortified hub for US Airways. And who says they can't co-exist? Look at DTW and STL.

Now, some PHL locals will have to help me out here:

When aircraft are landing from the east and departing to the west, the inner runway is for landings, the outer for departures. When the US aircraft are taxiing out from the B & C ramps, they must hold for landing aircraft on that inner runway before crossing over it to hold for the depart runway. Thus, aircraft that have just landed, and are taxiing back to the D & E concourse can't get through, because the US aircraft are blocking the ramp and taxiway. Back in 1992, I saw aircraft wait for a good 20 minutes after a landing just to get TO the gate. And in 2001, the a big lineup of aircraft just seemingly sitting, holding for departure. Might not WN encounter this for their E gates?

I think both US and WN can compete side by side, tho I expect the fares to come down, that right there will not help US's financial problems. It will be interesting to see the schedule of where WN will be flying to. Also since the lines between LCC's and the majors have blurred it should be interesting since the competition will be mainly on fares....

Do you think ISP-PHL route would be made? Currently US Airways Express flies ISP-PHL using a Dash 8. Is there enough demand to go from a Dash 8 to a 737 on a PHL-ISP route? I really don't think there is.

Well this must be just the beginning for Southwest expansion at PHL. There is no need for them to have 4 gates if all they wanted was 14 daily flights. They must be planning on expanding to at least 40.

727LOVER:

You're partially right, although I have never seen so many planes waiting to cross 27R (inner) that arriving taxiing traffic is blocked en route to D/E/F. ATC usually staggers the US planes so they wait on different perpendicular taxiways, and thus leave the parallel taxiway free. The real delays usually occur in between the runways, where planes wait to depart 27L.

If Southwest is leasing four gates at PHL, we can be pretty sure they won't offer just fourteen daily flights for long. The question will be, how fast will they grow?

Jim

"Wilmington, DE????"

Wilmington's airport, KILG, hasnt had commercial service for 10 years or so and is mostly a corporate airport...Dassault has a facility there...comparing ILG to OAK is not even close...

As for PHL's airport usage...refer to this map while I explain...

http://www.aopa.org/images/asf/taxi/00320AD.pdf

As you can see, PHL has 4 runways

9L/27R
9R/27L
17/35
8/26

17/35 is commuter operations mostly but I have seen a few mainline aircraft such as an FL 717 and DL 732 arrive on it

8/26 can only be used for arrivals on 26 and departures on 8, and is strictly commuter usage

The 9's and 27's are the main runways...with the 27's being in use I'd say 80-85% of the time...when they are in use, normally 27R is used for arrivals, since by the time the aircraft slow to taxi speed they are right next to the terminal and this makes taxi times after landing typically short...occasionally 27R is used for takeoffs from aircraft originating iin Terminals E and F since the departure threshold is somewhat close to those terminals...I imagine now with WN coming in that quite a few WN departures will use 27R because as Im about to explain, using 27L is a nightmare sometimes

Now 27L is used for takeoffs mostly and arrivals occasionally, but to get to 27L, all aircraft have to taxi across 27R to get there, and this tends to create bottlenecks trying to get across....departure delays at PHL are horrendous in part because of this, and once across 27R, the ground controllers funnel aircraft to 27L via taxiways S, N, M, and S1, so you have aircraft converging from 4 or 5 different points to depart on 27L...this can be a nightmare...

When winds favor the nines for movements, takeoffs are on 9L and arrivals on 9R with very little variation in that, because as you can see, the taxi to 9R is ridiculously far for a departure...I cant recall having ever experienced a 9R takeoff...

The moral of the story...the layout of PHL is terrible and very delay-prone..

Hope this helps, and if you have any other questions feel free to ask...

Greg

[Edited 2003-10-28 23:34:35]

I must say that I am shocked by this move. Every time I have flown into/out of PHL, I have had to deal with a ground delay of at least 30 minutes...this certainly will not help out WN's operations.

Also, I would not be surprised if, as someone suggested, US schedules a bunch of smaller planes around the WN flight times. It will be an attack right on WN in a few ways, as there will be additional frequencies on the routes (the biz traveller cares most about the frequencies, and the more frequencies the better), and they would only help delay the flights (this could come back and hurt US since there flights will be delayed too, but they might decide to do it anyways).

As for WN in BOS (as someone speculated), I don't really see it happening. You will have Song, JetBlue, and AirTran all providing many low-fare flights, including to potential WN cities. In addition, you would have to deal not only with US there (which they obviously don't mind, since this is the second US hub to be "raided" by WN), as well as AA and DL, each of whom have 100 daily flights. Plus, comparing Boston to Los Angeles is apples to oranges. The Los Angeles metro area is much larger than Boston (only 4M), and they will have plenty of room for expansion out of MHT and PVD, which can both be reached in an hour from Boston, and are much less congested (I've been delayed countless times out of BOS as well...wait till a winter comes in BOS...the predominant wind from the NW always severly curtails ops).

Jeff

but to get to 27L, all aircraft have to taxi across 27R to get there, and this tends to create bottlenecks trying to get across

As I think about it, I actually remember one day I was there, I saw aircraft taxi westbound down to the end of 27R, then cross over to the taxiway, then taxi back to the beginning of 27L. In effect, doing a 180.

Anyway, I've always thought that strange...inner landing one way, outer landing, the other way!

A weird airport! Oh, and don't even get me started on those parking rates!  

"and utilize four gates at the airport to bring Philadelphia area residents up to 14 daily flights initially to a variety of short and longhaul destinations"

http://www.southwest.com/about_swa/press/prindex.html

It will not be 40 flights daily like everyone is talking about. In the article it says 14 daily flights initially. EVENTUALLY, there will be 40 daily flights.

As I think about it, I actually remember one day I was there, I saw aircraft taxi westbound down to the end of 27R, then cross over to the taxiway, then taxi back to the beginning of 27L. In effect, doing a 180.

Departures from A gates often do this, as it is not such a big loop, yet it completely avoids having to cross 27R.

I imagine now with WN coming in that quite a few WN departures will use 27R.

As you said, to taxi to/from the west end of 9R/27L is completely impractical, which means westerly arrivals will continue to use 27R. Therefore why should WN departures be an exception?

Just a thought possibly since using 27R for departure would avoid all the departure and congestion around 27L...from the E gates flights would just have to take Taxiway H to the departure end of 27R...27R is actually closer than 27L...

Greg

I would never have expected this in a million years, and I frankly think that it is great that WN will begin to serve PHL as I tend to travel a lot to the Southwestern US (mainly SAN). This is great news!

Although it is risky, I think it will be good news for the industry for one key reason: it might finally mark the end of US Airways. For decades, US Airways and its predecessors have been the weak link in the US commerical air system, with generally poor service, bloated costs, and excessive financial difficulties. The industry as a whole will be much better off without a US Airways in the market. If WN is successful at PHL, I can't see how US Airways can survive. It's about time we killed off this dinosaur.

Southwest is the pinacle of US Airlines, however like the New York Yankees who are the pinacle of Major League Sports Success they (WN) cannot win every battle.

"I've thought for a long time that Southwest's biggest, maybe only, strategic blunder during the 1990's was not to jump on JFK. The New York Congressional delegation would have tripped over themselves to get WN the JFK slots that they later got for JetBlue"

My feelings exactly, WN made a huge mistake going to Islip. JFK has a very good runway configuration, and except for the European rush hour is a ghost town for most of the day. No dominant Domestic Carriers (before B6), and lots of potential.

The Port Authority is building B6 a new 23 gate terminal, and then there's the JFK Air Train which will open soon. Eventually there are plans to connect JFK's Airtrain directly to LIRR's rail lines to enable one seat rides to Mid-town and possibly Lower Manhattan (under study right now).

Imagine WN at JFK, with a brand new 23 gate terminal, no dominant Domestic Hub carrier, access to NYC via a one seat train ride, and the ability to connect passengers to/from International Carriers at JFK to their Domestic network.

It would be the closest anyone would be able to come to growing money on trees, WN setting up shop at JFK instead of B6 would be a license to print money.

However I don't see them abondoning Islip for JFK now, I think it's too late. There's no more free gates, Terminal 4 is designed to expand from it's current 16 gates to as many as 30, but that would mean they would have to put up a substantial sum of money to build themselves facilites before they even start one flight.

As for EWR, CO was very smart about 6 years ago when they bought 5-6 gates at Terminal A from UAL to use for their ATL, DFW, ORD flights. CO controls Terminal C, and one of the three concourses at Terminal A. The other two concourses at Terminal A are not that large (9 gates each) and have to support UAL, AA, Airtran, ATA, Air Canada, and US Airways. Unless US Airways goes under there are no available gates at Terminal A, the situation at Terminal B is even tighter because of the three concourses at Terminal B two are for the IAB the third (9 gates) is shared by NWA, DL, Song, Air France etc..

Also the North Terminal was torn down in '97, so unless US Airways goes out of business (which might happen) there are no available gates at EWR.

However just speculating for a moment here, but imagine WN's entrance in PHL does have a serious adverese affect on US Airways (very possible). WN does have the resources to buy gates and slots from US Airways, imagine WN buying US Airways gates at BOS, EWR or even (I know this is wild speculation) US Airways Terminal at Laguardia and their slots.

This would be a huge diversion from the WN business model, and PHL has delays but EWR and LGA are even worse. However WN with US Airway's slots and terminal at LGA would trump B6, solidify their position in the North East. They would take a hit from high costs of doing business at LGA (delays, labor costs, landing fees etc) however if they could do it and still make money (which it's all about) that would be the business deal to end all deals.

Again Im just speculating, but if the shoe fits..

"Just a thought possibly since using 27R for departure would avoid all the departure and congestion around 27L...from the E gates flights would just have to take Taxiway H to the departure end of 27R...27R is actually closer than 27L..."

But, taxi distances would be significantly longer for landings on 27L. Plus, I don't think there's enough space for planes to line up to depart on 27R. Taxiway Kilo crosses 17/35. That's one more runway to add to the confusion. And taxiway Hotel also crosses it, and only planes coming from terminals F and E would use that. 27R is also 1,000' feet shorter than 27L, which would be one more reason to use it for landings, although 9,500' is plenty for any jet at PHL. Anyway you look at PHL's taxiway diagram, it's still just as stupid!

Nick

Anyway you look at PHL's taxiway diagram, it's still just as stupid!

Another piece to the puzzle:

PHL has been playing with a few possibilities for a complete change in the airport layout, including either a fourth parallel runway south of 9R/27L, or a diagonal plan that calls for four new runways (aligned 11/29 and 12/30) with corresponding taxiways. The latter involves movement of some terminals as well. http://www.phl.org/pdf/masterplan/newsletter03.pdf

Could WN's decision involve any of these plans? Granted, any actual progress on either of these plans is a long way off (10+ years), but the long term benefits are still there.

STT757,
Couldn't agree with your 1st post more strongly. US has definitely been on WN's radar for some time. Now WN opens this 'front'.
Well US has some battles ahead - defending PHL, contending with it's PIT costs, and a limited O/D market at CLT.

I'm more shocked and awed by this announcement than by anything that happened during major combat operations in Iraq. The only thing that worries me is what I've read about PHL being prone to delays.

Having said that, here is some O&D and fare information for 2002 on selected PHL city - pairs that I got off the DOT website and my comments.

PHL - ALB 212 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
061 - 071 - 071 - 062 - 066

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $256.83. I wonder how many more people would fly this route if the average fare was somewhere around $70.00? I don't see Southwest starting off with this route, but maybe sometime in the future.

PHL - BOS 280 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
904 - 1122 - 933 - 1116 - 1019

For Q4 2002 US had a 77% market share at an average fare of $214.10. AA was the lowfare carrier on the route with 13% of the market at an average fare of $175.75.

PHL - MHT 290 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
113 - 122 - 112 - 120 - 117

For Q4 2002 US had a 98% market share at an average fare of $261.00

PHL - PVD 238 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
127 - 151 - 132 - 130 - 135

For Q4 2002 US had a 98% market share at an average fare of $307.07

Based on the info in the above 3 city pairs, I could definitely see Southwest offering frequent service between PHL and both MHT and PVD at about a third of the cost of US's average fare and make an absolute killing.

PHL - BUF 279 Miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
112 - 136 - 115 - 121 - 121

For Q4 2002 US had a 98% market share at an average fare of $256.14.

Most likely would get nonstop WN service to PHL before ALB. Again, Southwest could charge 1/3 of what US wants on this route and still make a profit and most likely generate lots of new traffic.

PHL - MDW 678 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
1687 - 2386 - 2368 - 2142 - 2146

For Q4 2002 UA had a 34% market share at an average fare of $189.05. TZ (is that ATA?) was the low-fare carrier on this route with 13% of the market at an average fare of $129.22. I think Southwest might offer or 2 nonstops to MDW initially, but the rest of the frequencies would robably be 1 stops or connections at intermediate cities.

PHL - CLE 363 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
211 - 272 - 251 - 143 - 219

For Q4 2002 CO had a 85% market share at an average fare of $265.12. NW was the low fare carrier on this route with 2% of the market at an average fare of $244.60. Southwest could do well on this route, but I don't think they want to go after CO -- they seem to be focusing more on US. Also, I think they have said they would not add any new service into CLE until their relationship with the airport there improves. However, on the other side of Ohio, we haver a better opportunity:

PHL - CMH 405 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
278 - 383 - 331 - 365 - 339

For Q4 2002 US had a 60% market share at an average fare of $170.56. HP was the low fare carrier with 37% of the market at an average fare of $151.17. But since then, HP has dismantled it's CMH hub. Does HP still offer n/s srvice CMH-PHL? If not, this would be another great opportunity for Southwest.

PHL - DTW 453 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
527 - 654 - 602 - 592 - 594

For Q4 2002 NW had a 57% market share at an average fare of $214.53. US was the low fare carrier on this route with 39% of the market at an average fare of $203.10. Southwest could beat both of those fares, but again, I don't think they'll go after NW, not just yet. I think they are looking for high-priced city pairs dominated by US. I think Southwest will probably let US and NW duke this one out

.PHL - BDL 196 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
151 - 179 - 144 - 140 - 153

For Q4 2002 US had a 100% market share at an average fare of $256.83. If that many people wil pay over $1.00 a mile to go for that short distance, imagine how many more would go if the avg. price was cut in third say to about $85.00. I know 196 miles is not a very long flight but if the price is right, people will fly. AUS - DAL, AUS - HOU, ORF - BWI, DAL - OKC and IND - MDW are all under 196 miles and all have multiple frequencies. I think BDL - PHL just screams for WN service.

PHL - BNA 675 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
210 - 232 - 213 - 215 - 217

For Q4 2002 US had a 78% market share at an average fare of $241.33. UA was the low fare carrier with a 2% market share and an average price of $145.13. Southwest could probably match UA's fare and do it nonstop and generate more traffic.

PHL - ORF 212 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
102 - 139 - 128 - 091 - 115

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $242.00. Another wonderful candidate for n/s WN service. A market that is dominated by a financially weak carrier that is charging outrageous prices.

PHL - RDU 336 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
462 - 553 - 469 - 517 - 500

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $163.62. Another good candidate for n/s WN service.

PHL - RIC 198 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg. Daily Pax
101 - 110 - 092 - 078 - 0095

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $298.19. If and when Southwest ever goes to RIC, I wouldn't be surprised to see some RIC - PHL service.

I think if Southwest initially does well in PHL,we'll eventually see nonstop service from PHL to most of the cities in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast much like BWI enjoys today.

Just my random thoughts.

LoneStarMike

Nick,

I wasn't talking about having landings totally shifted over to 27L, but rather squeezing in a few WN departures on 27R between landings...

Greg

Holt Sh*t....well..all I can say is ..US had better start suckin' ass like no tomorrow with their PAX..starting now. And about a month B4 WN (LUV) shows up on the scene...of course match the fares, add some meals and a generous FF incentive that might stem the blood bath that's about to ensue! Tick tock tick tock...you've got SIX months to get it together!

BN747

Interesting analysis on the shorthauls there Mike...the question remains on what they want to do on longer flights...what, if any, transcons, and will they head down to Florida from PHL?

Greg

Greg,

Now I see what you mean. But, I don't think the tower would like that, or any of the other airlines. AirTran would do that now if they could, but it would screw up the whole system.

Nick

As a Southwest employee, I am thrilled to see us announce a new city and I have to chuckle at the recent thread in which so many armchair CEO's tried to predict our next city. Hell, I didn't even know until this afternoon...

I would now like to see WN Fly into GSP. We need a discount airline in here, Maybe AirTran As well. Anythings better the AA, DL, US, NW, and UA

GSPITL

That is a shocker! I don't think it is as much bad news for US as it will be for PIT and other surrounding airports. WN typically stimulates more passenger traffic and does not take too much away from the others. Great news for PHL!!

Just a thought Nick...I think its either that or they will arrange their schedule to strategically avoid the times when PHL is most delay-prone...

Greg

Interesting news as always.

PHL is know for its delays, for instance, just yesterday, your average rainy day in the Norheast, PHL was having anywhere from 30-120 minute arrival delays. Anytime the clouds drop or it starts to drizzle, PHL gets all backed up.

WN is likely going to be using PHL as a test to see how it can break into other markets with similar demographics.....fortress hubs, delay-prone, congestion, etc. Make no doubt there is a market for WN there, it will be interesting to see how much WN stimulates new traffic (people who would otherwise drive or not travel) versus steals from US.

A note about DTW, WN's existance at DTW is unique since WN was originally operating out of City Airport. DET wasn't suited for their operations (to make a long story short) so WN moved out to Metro with the big boys. NW, WN and Spirit all somewhat peacefully exist. However WN is not too terribly aggressive in DTW, and almost all routes they serve have multiple competition to begin with. DTW is not prone to delays and allows for relatively quick turns, NW's size at DTW is almost double that of US at PHL's to begin with.

Maybe its time to expand at DTW as well as PHL. Was WN able to get more gates at DTW after NW opened their new midfield terminal? I know they were short on gates before so expansion was limited. I always thought they were kind to NW by staying out of MEM and MSP and keeping a low profile in DTW.

I saw WN when they where in DET and it was great watching them land on DET's 5100 foot runway. I can't imagine what it was like in the winter.