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Sammy123
Topic Author
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2003 9:27 pm

If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:29 am

I cant help wondering what the aviation world would be like today if it wasn't for sept 11, what are peoples views on this?
 
triscl
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2003 4:08 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:32 am

Don't you think the "bubble" would have burst even without Sep 11? I think it certainly expedited the process, but it was only a question of when, not if.
 
flyboyaz
Posts: 2077
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:32 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:34 am

As tragic as it was, it initiated much need change in the aviation industry. Not only security changes, but also the way that airlines ran themselves.
Catch a ride on a smile!
 
flyCMH
Posts: 2324
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 1999 12:15 pm

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:36 am

America West would have still had a hub in Columbus. Prior to 9/11/01, America West was on the fast track for expansion in CMH. The airline had just added new nonstop flights to DFW, YYZ, and ATL, and had plans to expand the number of gates from 11 to 18 and go from 56 to approximately 70 daily flights. After Sept. 11, when America West changed their pricing structure to mirror that of Southwest's, the type of operation they flew out of Columbus with a heavy focus on regional jets, in addition to increased pressure by Delta, helped the airline decide to shut down their hub operations in Columbus.
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:42 am

The airlines were already in trouble, financially prior to 9-11. The quick and sudden downturn in travel, the economy, uncertainty and such all brought it all to the surface that much quicker. A lot of what has happened since 9-11 I am sure we would have seen any ways, maybe it just would have taken longer.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
masseybrown
Posts: 5559
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 2:40 pm

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:45 am

The traffic and yield numbers in the US showed obvious decay as early as January prior to 9/11. After 9/11 it all just happened faster and conditions deteriorated probably farther than they would have otherwise. The Iraq and SARS perturbations, of course, made things much worse - a perfect example of katabasis, a fancy way of saying trouble comes in threes.
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
Posts: 11623
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RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:47 am

If not for 11 September 2001, we probably would still have metal cutlery on all flights.

Not a big deal compared to what happenned on that day but still something that wouldn't probably have changed.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
nwacrew
Posts: 305
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2003 12:06 pm

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:50 am

As a flight attendant, when I see reruns of the 767's plowing into the World Trade Center, I wonder how many airline workers - glued to their television sets on 9/11 - realized they were watching their careers go up in smoke right along with the twin towers...

For me personally, I've lost about 7 years seniority since 9/11. I've been bumped back to 'reserve', where I fly minimum hours and take home about 60% of my former salary. But hey; I'm one of the lucky ones. I'm alive. And I've still got a job.
 
andersjt
Posts: 367
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 3:50 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:54 am

UAL would be through bumpy times, but may have avoided bankruptcy.

The thing I miss the most is being able to go to the gate to meet friends and family on arriving flights.
Oh how I long for the day when the skies were truly Friendly!
 
RiverVisualNYC
Posts: 926
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:11 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:45 am

The airlines may in fact have suffered from the burst of the economic bubble, but as someone involved in travel marketing, I can tell you the real long term issue is the American public's perception of air travel. A large number of people are still paranoid about the safety of air travel, and will go to great lengths to avoid it. And the media doesn't help either, with its sensationalized coverage of anything that happens at an airport or involving an airplane. Anyone remember President Bush's post 9/11 Travel Industry Association ad where he stood next to a UA 744 with a bunch of travel industry workers and urged people to get out and travel, and specifically to fly? Didn't do a bit of good, especially with the Iraq war coming right on the heels of it. It will take years, and an end to the fearmongering, for the American public to be as comfortable with flying as it was on 9/10/01.
 
RiverVisualNYC
Posts: 926
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:11 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:51 am

One last note, to tie in with the commercial aviation topic of the month...If Concorde had even been retired at all, if not for 9/11 the FAA would have surely given BA permission to give us NYers a last look at her with a magnificent flyby over Manhattan. Would have been fitting anyway considering that both the World Trade Center and Concorde were products of the visionary engineers of the late '60s/early '70s. Consider the irony that I'm probably not the only person who, as a kid growing up in NYC in the '70s, aspired to an office in the WTC and flying off to Europe on the SST. Now both are gone.
 
AASTEW
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2001 10:47 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:54 am

American Airlines would have had tremendous growth thanks to TWA. All the route authorities inherited from TWA are very valuable. Just look at all the terminal construction/renovation they had planned. DFW-new int'l terminal, LAX T4 remodeled, JFK new terminal, and MIA new terminal.

Has a flight attendant my seniority was boosted out of this world! Right before 9/11 AA had 27,000 F/A's.

However, the crewmember's, pax, people in towers and on the ground gave the ultimate sacrifice. God Bless their Souls!


AASTEW
 
GDB
Posts: 13831
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:55 am

Airlines like Sabena and Swissair would still have gone under, the US carriers in Chapter 11 would again eventually have found themselves in that position still.
FD RJ and Avro RJX would likely have seen service, whether they would be successful in a crowded market is another matter though.
But don't underestimate the effect of that day, airlines were (well some were at least) preparing for the downturn, still they took a huge hit, BA certainly did, you can plan for an expected downturn, no one was ready for Sept 11th.
Concorde probably would have flown until 2006/7, all 7 BA aircraft would have returned to flight, if not the 7th then certainly the 6th.
However, AF may still have ended in 2003, which still would have been the end for BA Concorde.
 
flyLAX
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:25 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 5:06 am

A little bit off topic, but if not for 9/11, the world would not hate us as much.
 
WNfan
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 4:27 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 5:32 am

I agree with FlyLAX.

In mid-September 2001, you might recall there were candle vigils at US embassies all over the world. The whole planet united behind us.

Not quite the same two years later, is it. Thanks, Bush Administration.
 
DeltaSFO
Posts: 2407
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2000 11:22 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 5:54 am

As a flight attendant, when I see reruns of the 767's plowing into the World Trade Center, I wonder how many airline workers - glued to their television sets on 9/11 - realized they were watching their careers go up in smoke right along with the twin towers...

I think you said it perfectly. I was too shocked and upset to realize it at first, but by the afternoon, I realized that I would probably lose my job. But I could have done a lot worse. After all, I managed to stay with my company all the way until January of 2003. I didn't have to take a pay cut. My benefits cuts were pretty minimal compared to most of my colleagues at other companies. And I have full pass privileges until I return to my company in 2006. I consider myself one of the lucky ones.

In the meantime, I'm finishing school, working part time at a regional, and there's plenty of other stuff to keep me busy.

It could have been a lot worse. Other guys I know who worked the ramp, worked as customer service agents, and depended on those 40 hours a week to help feed their family, make their rent and car payments, those are the guys I really feel for.
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
jhooper
Posts: 5561
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2001 8:27 pm

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 7:34 am

....people wouldn't be so paranoid.
Last year 1,944 New Yorkers saw something and said something.
 
POSITIVE RATE
Posts: 2121
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 11:31 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:51 am

Flightdeck visits would still be a reality  Sad
 
Guest

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:24 am

Demand for air travel already was showing signs of leveling, 9/11 made sure it was less than level.

UAL had major problems, but nothing like they have today. Midway woudl likely be around and boeing would certainly have sold a few more planes.

The national economy as a whole would have rebounded at levels surpasing what we see today, and at a faster rate. In fact, such rebound would have been stagering and shocking.

I think America as a whole lost about 2 years. Things are much better today, and will be even better tomorrow.
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2605
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:40 am

"but if not for 9/11, the world would not hate us as much".

I think you may have that backwards, FlyLAX. Some of the world already hated us plenty which is why 9/11 happened. But I think Bush Administration policies since 9/11, like the invasion of Iraq, have exacerbated that problem, particularly with the Muslim peoples. But the hammer blow effect of 9/11 on U.S. airlines was far worse than a mere recession and I'm deathly afraid it could happen again at any time. And if it does, what relatively little recovery progress the aviation industry has made in the 2 years could be wiped out in a heartbeat and it'll be in far direr straits than before. The psychological effect 9/11 had on fliers crippled the industry virtually overnight. All it would need would be for another major attack in the U.S. or elsewhere to put the shaky industry into a deep hole for the better part of the next 5 years. And what about after that?
 
RiverVisualNYC
Posts: 926
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:11 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:49 am

While not all of it is 9/11 related, it would be difficult to assert today that US airlines are the carriers of choice for foreigners visiting the US, as TWA and Pan Am once were. In their drive to cut costs, US majors are not perceived as competitive in terms of service with global heavyweights like BA, Singapore, etc. and whether real or imagined, the additional security hassle and "attitude" that foreigners get when flying a US carrier make things even worse. A friend who is ethnically middle eastern, but who has been a Canadian citizen for over 20 years, booked a return ticket between US and Europe on KLM to avoid this, not realizing that the return leg was a NW-operated codeshare. While KLM treated him like any other passenger, he felt like he was singled out for scrutiny by the NW people and the cabin crew was rude to him. As a result, not only did NW lose a customer, so did KLM.
 
expressjetphx
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 2:33 pm

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:54 am

America West would have still had a hub in Columbus. Prior to 9/11/01, America West was on the fast track for expansion in CMH. The airline had just added new nonstop flights to DFW, YYZ, and ATL, and had plans to expand the number of gates from 11 to 18 and go from 56 to approximately 70 daily flights. After Sept. 11, when America West changed their pricing structure to mirror that of Southwest's, the type of operation they flew out of Columbus with a heavy focus on regional jets, in addition to increased pressure by Delta, helped the airline decide to shut down their hub operations in Columbus.

I agree, but also take this into consideration:
An LGA passenger who wanted to fly to ORD or MDW could either take United, American, or ATA nonstop, or connected through CMH on America West. If America West's fares were not drastically cheaper, then why would a passenger, especially business, want to connect like that. Same goes for all other routes that were served by the CMH hub. It did serve the Columbus business community very well, though.
 
copaair737
Posts: 3571
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2003 5:00 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:55 am

SFO's Terminal 2 would probably be almost done being remodeled now, SWISS would still be flying there, and SAS would be flying the CPH route
Livin' on Reds, Vitamin C, and Cocaine
 
iflyatldl
Posts: 1796
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 1:41 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 12:29 pm

Nwacrew said it the best ! I was supposed to start back at DL as a flight attendant and watched that dream go up in smoke-for now. But that cost was minimal compared to the others. God rest all their heroic souls !
Ah, Summer, Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox and Beer.....
 
Cessna172RG
Posts: 643
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2000 8:31 am

RE: If Not For Sept 11

Fri Nov 07, 2003 12:39 pm

You know, if you think about it, the cycle of the airline economy is "cyclic" in nature. It's a big circle. It goes around to the profitable side, adding routes, competing, doing great things, and then there's a downturn, and it all goes to the dark side, profits are lost, routes are cut, etc. I hope we're on the upturn and coming around to the brighter side soon.

Even if there wasn't a September 11th, we'd still have this cyclic effect in place. Just think about the 90s. In this decade we'll see an upturn and maybe another downturn.
Save the whales...for dinner!!!

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