The key battle to watch, as was correctly stated here, is the Delta/Song v. JetBlue tussle. JetBlue coming into Boston--a HUGE Delta fortress--conjures up images of JetBlue waltzing into Atlanta. And we saw what happened there. Delta will do what it needs to protect its turf at Logan...they aren't pouring hundreds of millions into their new Logan terminal just to see JetBlue eat away market share. And Song can pretty much snap its fingers and (with some white and green paint) turn a mainline 757 into a Song 757. In other words, where Song needs to quickly ramp up service to vanquish a competitor, they're ready and able to do so. By comparison, JetBlue needs to wait in the queue for more A320s from Airbus...not to mention the RJs that are still years away. In my view, JetBlue failing in Atlanta causes a raised eyebrow ('How could someone so 'brilliant' as Neeleman screw up with such a bad decision?'). If Boston doesn't work out for JetBlue, that's TWO raised eyebrows...and gone will be the bloom on the JetBlue rose.
Now, as for MHT
: People are noting how much more convenient Logan is now. Huh? The other correct point made here is that Logan is the more convenient airport for those within the Route 128 beltway. True, that's a big population base. But outside the Route 128 belt lies an even larger population base, and for those people PVD
are largely better choices. Few people who have flown into or out of MHT
) have decided that 'Logan is better.' If you want several extra notches on the blood pressure scale, then by all means Logan 'is the place you oughta be.'
Will Southwest ramp up at either (or both) of those airports? Well, the talk up here is that architectural work is underway on yet another expansion at MHT
...this one a four-gate extension going down along the 'B' side where Southwest is now. Right now, there are a good four or five overnight Southwest 737s that are remotely parked at MHT
...to go along with two or three at the gates. The early-morning outbound Southwest bank at MHT
is pretty impressive, so I can see why they might want at least two more gates...perhaps all four of the new ones on the drawing board.
In the end, the lines of distinction will blur: JetBlue will, in time, be at MHT
. Same with Song. In time, it will be hard for Southwest, JetBlue, and Song to 'stay away from each other.' Not if each airline wants to grow. Simple math tells you that.