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Ruscoe
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Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:09 am

Following on from another topic ".....Boeing Blew it" I think they were in the process of doing so, but they do have one thing going for them.

It appears to me airbus is very vulnerable. This revolve4s around the fact that Airbus is heavily committed resource and manpower wise to the 380.

The 320 only matches the 73NG

The 330 is a clear winner over the 767m but the 7E7 will be a clear winner over the 330. (If built, but if its not the whole game is over in the long run)

300/310 are effectively dead, and no replacement in sight.

340 series are effectively matched by the 777

Airbus whilst having a bigger aircraft than the 747 coming on line in a few years, has no aircraft and no plans in the 400 - 500 seat range.

So, with Airbus tied up with the 380 for a few years, this is Boeings opportunity, to develop the 7E7, and if that is technically successful, immediately develop a 737 replacement. If they have the guts (and money) to do this, then Boeing will be able to dominate once again.

I know everyone can't wait to see the 380 fly, nor can I, but I do believe developing it was a serious strategic mistake on Airbus's part; but only a mistake if Boeing does not capitalise on this opportunity.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Others have any thoughts on this?

Ruscoe
 
Ralgha
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:23 am

Others have any thoughts on this?

Yeah, get your flame resistant suit on.  Big thumbs up
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Airbus Lover
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:36 am

I think Airbus does have a shrinked version of A380 in the future pipeline offering about 450 seats.

There were some rumuors that Airbus decided to build a heavier wing for some reason and would make the shrunk version even heavier. But making the stretched A380 even more efficient. The current A380-800 would then not be the most efficient of all A380s or something to that extent. I don't know if this is true and this is what I am vaguely recalling. I stand corrected.
 
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Richard28
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:46 am

The more evenly balanced between the two, the better for us the customer.

7e7 will help put Boeing back on the rigth path, which has got to be good news.
 
Alessandro
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What About Combos?

Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:47 am

So what about A380 combos, both cargo and passengers?
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:05 am

Roscoe, I think you are very right in most respects. Except that the 380 will keep Airbus tied to the drawing boards for years to come.

There is still a lot to be done before large scale production facilities have been built up, but much of the innovative design work has been done.

A few of my good friends, who were busy on the 380, has already moved on to the A400M, which is maybe even more challenging than the 380.

In addition the 345/346 and 318 programs are practically over by now. And new 318 innovations are being applied to the rest of the 320 family.

I think that we shouldn't be very surprised if we see Airbus take on another new program simultaneously with the 7E7, if it moves ahead according to current schedule.

It could be a 330 stretch based on some 346 features, or a "320NG" program with service introduction on the 20th birthday of the 320.

Much has been said about Airbus' lack of a 757 competitor. Now it seems that the Toulouse guys were clever not to waste money on that. Since the newer 737 and 320 variants have got US transcontinental capability, then the 757 segment seems to be dead.

Happy landing, Preben Norholm
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
jeffrey1970
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:15 am

Call me crazy but I think Airbus may also be vulnerable since I don't think they do much in the way of military aircraft, from what I know. On the other hand, Boeing is one of the largest military contractors.

God bless through Jesus,

Jeff

God bless through Jesus, Jeff
 
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keesje
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:25 am

Not very vulnerable IMO.

I´m saying not they are smashing the other guys, but they have three very good basic airframes, good commonality, advanced systems and a broad worldwide customer base.

New variants can be developed to meet market demand & introduce new technology. A320 and A330 series are "cash cows" with increasingly outdated competition.

Enough cash & R&D power are available to design new aircraft to meet the recovering marketplace.

About the 7E7, I´m not sure an all composite 330 competitor will be a clear winner. All composite aircraft didn´t do well in the past. Combining a new airframe with new engines and new systems is a risky approach. Many airlines might be cautious in ordering it.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Heavierthanair
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:27 am

G'day

http://www.airbus.com/MultimediaElements/57.jpg

To me this looks like a double shrink. With this being some 20% more efficient than its nearest competitor can you imagine how efficient the regular or even a stretch version will be?

Just a thought

Cheers

Peter
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:31 am


All composite aircraft didn´t do well in the past.


Huh???????????

Do you mean commercial aircraft? If yes, I challenge you to name one. Even the 7e7 will not be an all-composite aircraft.

Airbus historically used more composite material than either Boeing or McDonnell Douglas. So, where do you draw the line? It's not risky for Airbus to use composite materials extensively on the 380, but it's risky for Boeing to use composite materials extensively on the 7e7. Where is your logic?
 
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mariner
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:32 am

Jeffrey1970:

Perhaps not in the past - but there's always the future.

http://www.airbusmilitary.com/home.html

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
jeffrey1970
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:45 am

Mariner,

That is very true. I think that where Airbus, or any company, can be truly vulnerable, is if they think they are invulnerable. Since companies are run by people, all companies can fall on hard times.

God bless through Jesus,

Jeff
God bless through Jesus, Jeff
 
ryanb741
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:54 am

Well yes they are vulnerable to a certain extent in that the aviation market is highly sensitive to world events, but long term both Airbus and Boeing have a heck of a lot of planes they can sell as the industry is expanding dramatically. There is no way the EU will let Airbus fail and likewise the US Government isn't going to let Boeing crumble. I think the market is big enough for both to do well and I hope this is the case as they both make fantastic aircraft and long may they continue to do so!
I used to think the brain is the most fascinating part of my body. But, hey, who is telling me that?
 
CanadianNorth
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:00 am

Ok, i agree with some of what yer saying, and am a Boeing fan, but just thought id point out when you say the bigass A380 was a strategic mistake for Airbus, thats what alot of people thought about Boeing when they first came out with the 747 eh...


CanadianNorth
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Spaceman
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 10:32 am

The only mistake here made is when Boeing thought airbus is never going to build the A380.
 
Leskova
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 4:33 pm

Considering the fact that Boeing, in the past, has been able to turn quite a few of the "time disadvantages" (in other words, having their aircraft available later than the Airbus counterpart) into big sales, I doubt that Airbus is really in trouble here - just think of what the 332 did to 767 sales...

I have no doubt that the 7e7 will, if/when launched, draw quite a number of sales - but who's to say that an Airbus built to compete with it will not have a competetive edge over it?

If Airbus starts now, they'd be behind Boeing about 2 years in terms of development - even if they only start in 2004 or 2005 they'll have only a 2-4 year difference to market, with a potential launch (or even beginning of production - I know, those are two somewhat different things..  Big grin) at about the time that the first 7e7s are delivered to customers, so in this case - at least if Airbus decides on building something to counter the 7e7 - I'd say that Boeing, by being first in this category, is facing at least as much risk as Airbus by not having something to counter the 7e7 as of yet...
Smile - it confuses people!
 
L-188
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 4:42 pm

There is nothing wrong with waiting until your customer has finalized it's design and then begin building around it's short commings.

737 vs A320
A320 vs 737NG
A330 vs 727
B777 vs A340
A380 vs 747
7e7 vs A330

And thus the circle of life continues.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
Joni
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:45 pm


Airbus has a healthy backlog of orders and has recently gained a market share of about 50% on a unit basis, and even more if you include the value of sold aircraft. This means they'll likely have a healthy cash flow for the next 5 or so years at least.

This is in contrast with Boeing, which is in a world of trouble having sacked its top leadership and being the target of a criminal probe in the US, which may cost it much of it's crucial military business. Boeing has also lost market share and its order backlog has shrunk. Now Boeing really does look ridiculously (and unrealistically) bad, being effectively caught conducting unethical business with its largest customer and receiving illegal subsidies from the government to boot. But I believe (and hope) they'll pull through since they are a competent company, at least on the engineering level, and they aren't in such dire straits as to not have any room to maneuver.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 12:21 am

Airbus is vulnerable to this problem: the fall in the value of the US dollar. Because Airbus prices their planes in Euros, this could make Airbus planes more and more expensive to buy, and that could really cut into sales of the A330, A340 and A380 lines.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 12:25 am

Remember that a high % of Boeing parts are made outside the USA - with their costs also rising.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
Leskova
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 12:40 am

Because Airbus prices their planes in Euros
Sure? Just asking, because I honestly don't know - and I always thought that they still price their planes in Dollars!  Confused
Smile - it confuses people!
 
CitationX
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 1:21 am

When Airbus completes development of the A380, they will have some significant advantages over Boeing in materials technology since the A380 needs to adhere to strict weight budgets. This will filter down to the new Airbus designs in the future and will be available when the A32X, A33X aircraft are due for replacement.

The company to watch is Embraer. The state-of-the-art design of EJ-170~190 series will up the ante of airlines' expectations for 80-100 passenger jets. I don't think the 717 (old airframe design) or 736 & A318 (too heavy) are going to successfully compete against Embraer's new series.
 
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Heavierthanair
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 2:50 am

G'day

Aircraft pricing traditionally has been in US dollars, only recently has Airbus started to quote partially in Euro, however this always depends on the customer and the relevant deal agreed on.

my two 0.02 USD or 0.02 EUR if you prefer

Cheers

Peter
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)
 
srbmod
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 3:39 am

Airbus, like Boeing, could be vulnerable in the 125 seat market if the Embraer E-Jets family is successful. The Embraer 195 guns right towards Airbus and Boeing. The 125 seat and under market may end up being ceeded to Embraer if Airbus and Boeing don't watch it. The A318, B717, and B736 are square in Embraer's sights, and you can't count out Bombardier either. These aren't the RJs that took over the industry a decade ago, these a/c are true competitors to A and B. These are new designs that are trully ahead of what Airbus and Boeing currently offer. And no telling what could happen with the D'long 728 JET either.
 
Ruscoe
Topic Author
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 7:05 am

CitationX said;
When Airbus completes development of the A380, they will have some significant advantages over Boeing in materials technology since the A380 needs to adhere to strict weight budgets

I'm not sure. 380 weight is a problem and Airbus has been forced to admit it in a round about way, by increasing the MTOW of the 380 by about 15tonnes, in order to meet payload range guarantees. This increase in MTOW also increases costs to operate by about 1%.

Also Airbus do not yet have the confidence to use GLARE in the high load centre fuselage area.

Ruscoe
 
planemaker
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 10:30 am

In addition to everything that CitationX and Srbmod posted, the E170/190 could make major market inroads for two additional reasons:

FRAGMENTATION: This term is often used by Boeing to trumpet the requirement for the 7E7 over the A380, and the same Boeing logic can certainly be applied domestically - 'passengers would rather fly direct than connect through a hub'. The E170/190 will offer the economics to bypass hubs.

QUALITY of SERVICE: As LCC's market share increases at the expense of legacy carriers, to maintain the same quality of service and maintain network feed, the legacy carriers will be forced to reduce capacity by using smaller sized aircraft. The E170/190 economics will allow legacy airlines to maintain or even increase competitive frequencies.

I suggest checking out the following web site by Embraer. It is very informative and illustrates the 70-110 seat gap that exists in North American fleets.

http://www.ruleof70to110.com/main/index.html



[Edited 2003-12-13 02:51:22]
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
F4N
Posts: 507
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RE: Is Airbus Vulnerable

Sat Dec 13, 2003 10:55 am

Joni:

Perhaps you would care to let the rest of us know what "illegal subsidies"
Boeing was receiving?

regards,

F4N

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