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atrude777
Topic Author
Posts: 4412
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 11:23 pm

American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 1:38 pm

Hey folks- while we got the STL route updates going on at another topic...I thought I'd bring this up.


Recently there was a news release at the stltoday.com about since due to recent AA cutbacks, that fares would be much higher out of STL, as much as 200 higher, as opposed to a 200 round trip on STL-CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO its now 415. Now, I tested this myself, and I used AA and Southwest for examples as they are the two airlines that have the most flights out of STL.

STL-OKC(AA)- $169*^^
STL-OKC(SWA)-$169^^

STL-CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO(SWA)$216^^
STL-CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO(AA) $216^^

STL-FLL(AA) $232^^
STL-FLL(SWA) $232^^

*-Change of Planes
^^-estimated Price
Now ur seeing that the prices are literally exactly the same. WHY IS THAT?!? I guess AA and SWA are REALLY competing at STL both have the literally the same prices for the same trip. Now my question is this...who is the one lowering the prices? Southwest or American? In otherwords, is AA lowering the prices because of Southwest? Or is Southwest lowering the prices because of AA? I am curious, and as I look at other airlines,ie-DL, NWA, CO they are much higher, and require a change of planes as opposed to the N/S offered by AA# and SWA.
#-with exception to the STL-OKC.

Now your thinkng well what if you have to book the next day it will be cheaper on Southwest...actually NOT QUITE TRUE!! I checked STL-DFW-OKC(AA) and STL-OKC (SWA) BOTH WERE THE SAME PRICE at 416 dollars(I think give or take). So...is this good? or bad that the prices are the same? My take is its good, but AA is going to win most likely due to the fact of the FFP and Miles and such. I would think. Whats your take on this?

Alex.
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
AIR757200
Posts: 1466
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2000 8:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 1:41 pm

WHY IS THAT?!?

That's the way the business works.
 
ssides
Posts: 3248
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2001 12:57 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 1:50 pm

Yep. It's called competition.

Quick overview of some random fares from Expedia:

DFW-DCA (Jan. 10)
AA: $216
DL: $216
FL: $219
CO: $224
NW: $227
UA: $227

DEN-ORD (Jan. 10)
UA: $203
AA: $203
NW: $206
DL: $209
CO: $218
HP: $218

JFK-LAX (Jan. 10)
UA: $216
AA: $216
HP: $216
DL: $216

Ah, the joys of a competitive marketplace.

But I admit ... $216 for JFK-LAX? That is absolutely amazing.
"Lose" is not spelled with two o's!!!!
 
atrude777
Topic Author
Posts: 4412
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 11:23 pm

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 1:52 pm

I just love how you guys can make me feel so stupid..:P


well when i asked why...I was reffering as to why the paper says this and is QOUTED BY AN AA OFFICIAL.....that we would see a new high price and yet when i look up prices they seem the same to em if not lower....thats WHY  Big grin

lol

Alex.
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
Guest

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 1:56 pm

Even with the reduction of their STL operations, AA remains a tough competitor and continues to match select WN fares to select destinations. The following are unrestricted walk-up fare (price shown are base fare, excluding taxes/fees) that are more typical of AA's pricing:

to SFO
$1,745.12
WN to OAK: $556.28, matched by AA

to LGA
$1,566.50
WN to ISP: $360.94, matched by AA

to MIA
$1,970.00
WN to FLL: $465.12, matched by AA

to LAX (one of the few markets ex-STL AA doesn't match WN's fares in)
AA: $2,000.00 (nonstop)
WN: $556.28 (one-stop)

[Edited 2003-12-17 06:11:12]
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26252
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 2:01 pm

was reffering as to why the paper says this and is QOUTED BY AN AA OFFICIAL.....that we would see a new high price and yet when i look up prices they seem the same to em if not lower....thats WHY


You are comparing market where they compete. Compare a market where they do not compete, like STL-LGA.
a.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7037
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Wed Dec 17, 2003 2:41 pm

Actually, I'm not sure that AA always wins based on miles. Take STL-OKC, for example. Most people would choose the non-stop if it fits their schedule or the slightly less out-of-the-way connection/one-stop at MCI, rather than a 4-hour trip via DFW. And for short trips like that, you earn a free ticket (with fewer restrictions) faster on WN; even with the less generous bonus credit for southwest.com bookings as of 1/1/2004, it only takes 6 STL-OKC round-trips (actually 5-1/3) to earn a free ticket (with no capacity controls and a handful of blackout dates) on WN. Each STL-OKC round-trip (via DFW) booked on aa.com earns you 3102 miles, meaning you'd need just over 8 to earn a highly restricted domestic coach class award ticket. STL-MCO earns you fewer miles on AA since it's a single segment of 882 miles (or 2764 per round-trip with booking bonus) while FLL-MCO gets you 3116 miles round-trip with the bonus.

You won't get any more leg room on AA's 757's to FLL or MCO, and I doubt you'd be fed more than pretzels or peanuts either. WN probably gives you a snack pack if the rule still holds of those being distributed on flights with a block time of over two hours. AA will probably show you its CBS-produced programming. So in-flight service is comparable depending on whether you value food or IFE more.

But those competitive fares from AA are solely due to the WN presence on those routes. Don't doubt that AA would rape its "business" passengers just as it does on routes not served by WN. Why don't you compare fares on routes where WN faces little meaningful competition and see if they aren't consistent with what they charge in STL.
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 12:53 am

Scott... welcome to my respected list for being able to perform what is called "multi-variate analysis".

When designing the passenger generation and booking algorithms for my game, I realized that it was more than just the cheapest fare from A-B. I ended up building a passenger preference system. Each passenger block in the game (and there are millions of passengers generated) has preference ratings from 1-4 in 6 categories... cost, comfort, length of trip, timing of trip (closest to when this pax wants to travel?), on-time rate for the flights and brand loyalty. Each flight, of course, goes through a complex process of getting rated on the suitability for each of those 6 categories. The bottom line is that the passenger compares his preferences with the suitabilities and then selects an itinerary based on that. A $10 fare change may loose you some passengers but not have an effect on others. Changing the IFE from recorded video down to audio only... or the meal service down to beverage only... may loose you a whole different group of pax on that flight. When it comes down to booking flights in the game, two passengers with the same O&D could choose very different ittineraries based on their preferences - that is, what is important to them.

What I'm getting at is that there are so many more factors than the cost. Business travelers (in real life and in the game) have higher demands for the length of the trip, the timing of the departure/arrival, on-time rate, and even brand loyalty (since they are the frequent flyers, of course). On the other end of the spectrum, most leisure travelers just want to get there cheap.

When comparing any two airlines' service, (for example, AA and WN out of STL) everything else that you DON'T include in your comparison needs to be equal. As Scott pointed out very well above, this is not the case. It's a far more complicated process to sort out what people find important - and not all the parameters are as nice and tidy as a dollar figure.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
goingboeing
Posts: 4727
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 1999 1:58 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:11 am

Whoever thinks fares will go up because Southwest would raise them doesn't know much about Southwest. Here's the best example I can find - Southwest operates the ONLY nonstop service between MCI and STL. The fully refundable round trip fare is $164.50 including all taxes and fees. This is a route with ZERO competition.

Let's compare that to a route that AA can't compete with SWA...STL-DFW. The "out and back" roundtrip fare is $836. Why is it so much less to change planes and go to OKC?

I don't know where you got the pricing for STL-OKC, but I am getting $239 round trip out and back on Southwest. AA is $241.
 
Guest

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:20 am

Each STL-OKC round-trip (via DFW) booked on aa.com earns you 3102 miles, meaning you'd need just over 8 to earn a highly restricted domestic coach class award ticket.

Unless you're elite frequent flyer and get 100% mileage bonus, then you're earning a free ticket faster than Southwest.


But those competitive fares from AA are solely due to the WN presence on those routes. Don't doubt that AA would rape its "business" passengers just as it does on routes not served by WN. Why don't you compare fares on routes where WN faces little meaningful competition and see if they aren't consistent with what they charge in STL.

Obviously the market supports these fares and if AA felt they could make more money by lowering the fares, they would. Hardly an incentive to liberate the world through low fares if the market in case happens to support the current price levels.
 
SWAbubba
Posts: 154
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2002 2:15 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:47 am

Proudtoflyaa,

One could argue that if the market supported those types of fares AA would be making money and not losing it. The incentive to liberate the world through low fares is survival, since one by one the routes the network carriers can gouge last minute fliers on are disappearing.

The LCC's are going to continue to expand. WN alone is planning to nearly double in size by 2012. Until the network carriers can get their costs down to the point where they can make money charging all fares on all (domestic)routes at competitive prices, they will continue to decline.
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:08 am

"Until the network carriers can get their costs down... "

read: "Until the network carriers can manage to avoid being held hostage by labor... "
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
VectorVictor
Posts: 384
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 5:31 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:24 am

I'm as big a fan Southwest as you will find...yet they rarely offer a competitive fare (for me at least) for longer distance domestic trips planned more than 21 days in advance.

For arguments sake...let's say you MUST be in San Francisco & Oakland on the weekend of Feb 5-8, 2004 for your brother's wedding.

Southwest (no nonstop service)
STL-OAK (via PHX, LAS or MCI + single plane service)
$484

American
STL-SFO
$372 (via ORD) $457 (Nonstop)

If both you and your girlfriend are going, flying American will net you between from $54 -$224 RT in savings. Why would choose Southwest?
 
Guest

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:43 am

Until the network carriers can get their costs down to the point where they can make money charging all fares on all (domestic)routes at competitive prices, they will continue to decline.

Well, if they drop international service and all flying to terciary markets, they'll have competitive costs. Who needs to go to any non-U.S. cities or places over 500,000 people anyway.....  Insane
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:54 am

"Well, if they drop international service and all flying to terciary markets, they'll have competitive costs. Who needs to go to any non-U.S. cities or places over 500,000 people anyway....."

Huh? What the heck are you talking about?
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
Guest

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:58 am

Huh? What the heck are you talking about?

Simple, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this forum before.
The network carriers can have LCC costs if they simply become LCCs... meaning they'll need to drop much of their service and unless you want to go somewhere at least the size of Lubbock and in the U.S., you're S.O.L.
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:02 am

That's the problem... you said "who needs to go to... places over 500,000 people" I think you meant "under".
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
ssides
Posts: 3248
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2001 12:57 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:05 am

"Until the network carriers can get their costs down... "

read: "Until the network carriers can manage to avoid being held hostage by labor... "


Preach on, brother. Preach on.
"Lose" is not spelled with two o's!!!!
 
goingboeing
Posts: 4727
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 1999 1:58 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:13 am

For arguments sake...let's say you MUST be in San Francisco & Oakland on the weekend of Feb 5-8, 2004 for your brother's wedding.

No, for arguments sake, lets say you need to be in the SF area tomorrow because your dad's fallen ill and isn't expected to live. Who you gonna fly?
 
Guest

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:49 am

No, for arguments sake, lets say you need to be in the SF area tomorrow because your dad's fallen ill and isn't expected to live. Who you gonna fly?

I'd pick up the phone and call American and get there non-stop and quickly.


And to Innocuous Fox:
You sound more and more like WGW every day.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7037
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:13 am

If the market truly supported those high fares in uncompetitive markets, I can't see why it wouldn't support those fares in markets where AA competes with WN. Obviously some people in management believe that's the best way to maximize profit, but given their profitability in the last few years compared to WN, I'm not so sure that's the case.

To be honest, I think Bob Crandall saw the change in the market a decade ago when American tried its Value Pricing experiment. He saw how well Southwest was doing in its DAL markets (as compared to AA's DFW markets) and in California/the Southwest with its simpler pricing structure and far smaller disparity between "business" and "leisure" fares. And the other network carriers initially went along with AA. The problem was, the others started cutting leisure fares in an attempt to grab market share and/or increase traffic, which basically led to a bruising fare war that summer. Read some of the quotes in this article by Joe Brancatelli and ask yourself if Crandall didn't see what was coming. The venture capital/IPO-fueled dot-com boom of the late 1990's papered over the problems with the industry's pricing structure, but it only postponed the day of reckoning.
 
SWAbubba
Posts: 154
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2002 2:15 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:15 am

Nonstop is great, as long as you want to leave when they fly non-stop. I'll take a one-stop that gets in several hours earlier over waiting for a non-stop any day.

As far as fares go, if you know your plans more than 21 days out and they never change, of course buy the lowest fare. That's what all the travel websites are for. But if you're travelling at the last minute or your plans ever change, be ready to pay the price.

International flying will remain a money-maker for the network carriers, but they're losing their domestic market share little by little. We make money in every size airport from LAX to MAF, so to say that LCC's only go to a certain size city is incorrect.

There are lots of places that don't have an LCC presence but that list is getting shorter every day. That trend will only accelerate with ACA, Branson, and the others starting new ventures.
 
goingboeing
Posts: 4727
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 1999 1:58 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:30 am

I'd pick up the phone and call American and get there non-stop and quickly.

That unrestricted ticket on the nonstop flight would cost you $1,300 more than an unrestricted ticket on Southwest. I'd be willing to change planes for that kind of money.
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:49 am

"And to Innocuous Fox:
You sound more and more like WGW every day. "

I'm trying to figure out what you are talking about. Perhaps you think I am unjustly biased against your beloved AA? I would venture that I am far more objective than someone who puts the name of an airline in their screen name. *shrug* Anyway, I don't really care about whatever ing match you have with WGW. If you would like to take issue with a specific statement of mine, feel free - don't just lob some vague reference out there and walk off. Discuss, don't whine.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
pilotpip
Posts: 2844
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 3:26 pm

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 6:16 am

InnocuousFox,

I don't think you have a grasp on the true population of the region. While the city itself has only about 300,000 residents, the metropolitan area has nearly 2,000,000. More than 75% of those people are within a 30 minute drive of STL because the airport is not in the city of St. Louis. We have a horrible urban sprawl problem. But that's another topic for another fourm.

The CFR equipment is rolling, I'm going to go turn on my scanner.
DMI
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 6:19 am

"I don't think you have a grasp on the true population of the region"

Heh... funny you should say that. I have driven through STL a lot since my grandparents lived down by Carbondale and I am in Omaha. Also, sitting right on the typing stand of my computer desk, I have the printout of our CityData file from the game which has the population of every MSA from New York down to Enid, OK (57k). STL? 2655k. Trust me, I know more about regional populations in this country than most people.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
Guest

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 12:34 pm

That unrestricted ticket on the nonstop flight would cost you $1,300 more than an unrestricted ticket on Southwest. I'd be willing to change planes for that kind of money.

Well, using your example, if my father has fallen ill and isn't expected to live, I'd want to get there as fast and simply as possible. I'm sorry, but I cannot fathom doing anything other than the most straightforward and fastest route in that situation, even if it means saving $1300. I'd rather get on one plane and be there than make a stop or two and have that many more chances for something to go wrong in the travel arrangement.


As for InnocuousFox:
Grow up.
 
atrude777
Topic Author
Posts: 4412
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 11:23 pm

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 12:37 pm

Its interesting how a population plays a part in this(as it should..) but its been awhile since someone brought up populations.

I agree that the next day pricing more likely WN will be the cheapest.

Innocuousfox- Im curious as to where in Carbondalr you lived? I live in Carbondale right now, IM me if u wanna talk more privately- my SN is atrude777


alex.
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:57 pm

"As for InnocuousFox: Grow up."

Odd. You lob some sort of peculiar, obtuse comparison (with me on one end of it) into a conversation and I'm the one that is in need of increased maturity? Whatever... I'm still trying to figure out what I could have possibly said that tweaked your finely honed sense of violation.

"Innocuousfox- Im curious as to where in Carbondalr you lived? I live in Carbondale right now, IM me if u wanna talk more privately- my SN is atrude777"

Actually, I lived in Murphysboro from about 75-78. My mom grew up there and my parents both went to SIU. I have the occasional memory of going to STL to pick up my aunt when she would fly in. My grandparents lived there for most of their lives and were quite well known in the area. My grandfather (Gilbert Todd) was the man who developed Shawnee Saltepeter Cave down south on 127. My grandmother (Olga Todd) owned the largest art and gift gallery in the midwest... right on Walnut in Murphysboro. Anyway, he was a pilot and flew in and out of MDH quite a bit.

Anyway, the point that I may not have a handle on the metropolitan base of the Greater St. Louis area is quite amusing.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: American/Southwest @ STL.

Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:17 pm

"Its interesting how a population plays a part in this(as it should..) but its been awhile since someone brought up populations. "

Actually, I think we had it in the Airtran/CMH thread.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!

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