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mckennasmall
Topic Author
Posts: 240
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2004 5:00 am

747 What's Next

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:11 pm

I did a search and there is no luck. My question is to all the people on a-net. What will happen to the airlines who purchased the Airbus 380 and still have many Boeing 747-400, 747-300 and 747-200.What will happen to these airplanes. Will some airlines park them in the desert. Will other airlines have them used on routes where you would not usually see the 747. Will there be more frequency on the route, such as a 747 and the 380. What are your thoughts.
 
Boeing Nut
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2001 2:42 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:28 pm

In all probability, you will see the A380 replace the 744 on routes that are always full or over sold. Airlines that have the 744, 743 and 742 will most likely retire the 743 and 742's and replace them with 777's and/or 345/6. The 744 will most likely be kept because it is a different class than the A380 is. A380 being a 550 pax aircraft and the 744 a 420 seater. The two aircraft really don't compete head to head, but the A380 will succeed the 744 on several routes.
 
Mr.BA
Posts: 3310
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: 747 What's Next

Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:55 pm

The only thing is that the B744 is not as fuel efficient as many new aircraft now like the A346/B777s. It burns too much fuel. It's a good plane, it's at the right size, but if only fuel consumption is lower!
 
united4ever
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 8:34 pm

RE: 747 What's Next

Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:58 pm

IMHO the DC-10 and A300 freighters might be big losers as 742s and 744s become cheaper on the used market following their partial replacement by 380s. Just my 2p.

Mike

[Edited 2004-01-12 16:07:40]
 
Akumas
Posts: 423
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 4:53 pm

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:05 am

Sell them? As they're still pretty reliable and big aircraft...
Privately I would guess
 
Leon8828
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 12:36 pm

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 2:41 am

This just in: Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 5, 2004 edition:

"We forecast a substantial market for airplanes in the 400-500 seat category, and the 747 is the only one designed to serve this market. The -400ER is unquestionably suited for the market today. Enhancements derived from 7E7 technology will make the 747 Advanced under study even more attractive to passengers and airlines. There will not be a better airplane solution of this size.

We will continue to work with our customers to adapt the world's favorite airplane to meet market changes. There's nothing fading about the 747 family.

T. Craig Martin, Director
Airplane Programs Communications
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Seattle, Wash."


It looks like Boeing will keep the 747 alive and well for a while.
 
SN-A330
Posts: 1052
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2001 4:38 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 2:50 am

It looks like Boeing will keep the 747 alive and well for a while. I'm very glad to hear that !

Regards, SN-A330
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 2752
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:27 am

As far as VS is concerned, they got their final B744 delivered only 3 months ago, and given their current need for new aircraft, and the fact they are currently renovating the interiors on all their B744's, I very much doubt they will phase them out for a long time yet.

You will therefore see the A380 alongside the B744 (and A346) giving lots of fleet flexibility to cater for demand.

 
Areopagus
Posts: 1338
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 12:31 pm

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 5:29 am

You would expect Boeing to say something like that. What is telling is that they found it necessary to make such a statement. Boeing's original Sonic Cruiser announcement stated that customers continue to be highly pleased with their current products, and look where the 767 is now. Twenty years ago, MD found it necessary to run ads with Pete Conrad promising that there would always be MD airliners.
 
rams777
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2001 12:40 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 7:48 am

I might think that Boeing 747s would be used on flights to destinations where the A380 may not be able to, due to it's shear size...(ramp space and facilities)
 
rjpieces
Posts: 6849
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 8:58 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 8:30 am

The A380 will only replace the 744 on certain routes. For example, look at what SQ is being rumored to do: Replace most of their 744s with 777-300ERs and the rest with A380s.

I expect a lot of 744 operators to go for the 773ER/A346 replacement and airlines that still want extra capacity could go for that newer 747 with advanced avionics,etc and airlines that need superhigh capacity to go for the A380. Which market segment do you think will sell best there? IMO, the order I put them in.
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2607
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 8:45 am

"There's nothing fading about the 747 family."

This was probably a reaction to an earlier AW&ST article that DID describe the 747 as fading from Boeing's portfolio. Boeing may have 747 upgrade plans but the market will decide whether on not they come to fruition. It needs the 7E7 engines to cut fuel consumption and lower operating costs and the proposed Advanced looks well poised to anchor a 450 passenger niche market without really strong direct competition from Airbus (The proposed A380-700 shrink, though it would have significantly greater range, would have a MTOW about 200,000 lbs. greater than the new 747, negating economic benefits gained by its' newer design.) But Boeing needs to be ready with the design soon, as mass 747-400 retirements are approaching in the next few years. As soon as 7E7 engine specs are firm, it'd better begin engineering work on the new Advanced, otherwise Airbus may beat them to the fray with the A387, despite its' extra weight. Some carriers may want the A387 anyway for high-capacity ultra-long-range routes the 747 Advanced won't be able to fly. Waiting for the 7E7 to be completely done before turning their attention to the 747 may not be wise. This may be their last shot at keeping the Jumbo going and if airlines don't warm to it, it may indeed fade out of the picture.  Sad
 
rjpieces
Posts: 6849
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 8:58 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 8:54 am

Airlines will probably warm to it if the other alternative is an overweight A387. How many high capacity ultra longhaul routes do you know that can't be filled by A.) Current 744s. B.) 777-200LRs (albeit with less capacity. C.) Baseline A380s.
 
Mir
Posts: 19491
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: 747 What's Next

Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:15 am

How many high capacity ultra longhaul routes do you know that can't be filled by A.) Current 744s. B.) 777-200LRs (albeit with less capacity. C.) Baseline A380s.

Not that many. Which is exactly why I think Boeing would be wasting money to develop a new 747 variant. I think the 400ER will be a good replacement for 742s, 743s and older 744s if airlines don't want to go the 773 or 346 route. Boeing should focus instead on getting the 7E7 in top form, because that's going to be the weapon they rely heavily on in the years to come.

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