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chicago757
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In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Sun Feb 08, 2004 7:15 pm

I was just wondering who u guys think will be the #1 airline in the US in 10 years and why. My vote goes to ATA!
Go White Sox!!!!
 
fritzi
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Sun Feb 08, 2004 8:47 pm

With the current situation, it is hard to say which airlines will be around in ten years!
 
Guest

RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Sun Feb 08, 2004 8:51 pm

I see Southwest only getting larger so I vote for WN. I beleive they are already the largest in terms of passengers carried, dont hold me to that though.
 
klm
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Sun Feb 08, 2004 9:30 pm

Don't think anyone can give you the answer on that. But I'll guess that one of the LCC's will be the biggest in 10 years from now. But it's hard to tell...
Klm all the way!
 
b727
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Sun Feb 08, 2004 11:10 pm

I believe Southwest will be in the top 3 along with jetBlue. Is's hard to say who will bw around in 10 years.


B727
Glenn
 
ual777contrail
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RE: In 10 Years.....Who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:32 am

My vote doesn't go to WN, they wont even be a fraction of what ACA will be.

I think ACA will give UAL a hard run, put us under and continue to hurt other majors making them stronger than WN.

GO ACA, GO!!!!


UAL 777 CONTRAIL
 
soamsky
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:43 am

In ten years more than sure the number one airline in the US wil be:
Air France!!  Big grin
Soar the blue of the South American Sky
 
bmi330
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:46 am

I think the biggest will be CO. I just think they are good and are hardend to the market now after hard ship in the past.
 
ushermittwoch
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:46 am

Well the way that AA's pilots are acting, I'd say they are out. Of the majors it's either going to be NW or CO.
But WN will be the largest domestic carrier.
Where have all the tri-jets gone...
 
cloudboy
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:52 am

I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest airline in 10 years turns out to still be AA. While the LCC's will certainly impact operations, and may be more profitable, the LCC model only works for serving markets with enough demand to be profitable. So as far as size goes I doubt any LCC will ever top the majors. Plus the LCCs about that time will be starting to see a big jump in the amortization costs of their aircraft and facilities and such.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
qqflyboy
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:00 am

"Well the way that AA's pilots are acting, I'd say they are out."

What are you talking about? Do mean Delta pilots? AA's pilots gave over $600 million in concessions last April. AA's seat costs are now lower than Continental's, according to American. That puts them in an enviable position, especially for those at Delta.

As far as number one... that airline hasn't been invented yet.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
bucky707
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:03 am

"In ten years more than sure the number one airline in the US wil be:
Air France!! "


Actually, this guess is probably the closest to the truth.
 
InnocuousFox
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:08 am

Hey people... define "#1" before we continue.

"My vote doesn't go to WN, they wont even be a fraction of what ACA will be."

Regardless of what "#1" means, this is a ridiculous statement.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
ba319-131
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:17 am

I thinks WN will be the biggest domestic carrier(in terms of pax carried),Jetblue will be someplace in the top 5.

UA,if will be the biggest international carrier.

111 732 733 734 735 736 73G 738 739,7M8 BBJ 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 764 772 77L 773 77W L15 D10 D30 D40 AB3 AB6 312 313 318 319 320 20N 321 21N 332 333 342 343 345 346 359 351 388 CS1 CS3 I86 154 SSJ CRJ CR7 CR9 CRK 145 170 175 220
 
AlitaliaMD11
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:19 am

Hey

i say........... ATA,Jet Blue, South West and ACA. Maybe Ted and Song.

IF they add more routes and bigger planes.
No Vueling No Party
 
USAir734
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:41 am

Thats a tough question, it is difficult to try and imagine what the scene will be like in 10 years, but i think it may look a bit like this:
In terms of passengers: Southwest
In terms of Revenue Passenger Miles: Continental
Just my opinion, I think Continental has a strong network and good management, hopefully they'll continue to grow after Gordon.
 
klwright69
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:59 am

WN? Seriously?? This is the airline that will return to DEN when "pigs fly." The carrier that doesn't even serve EWR, JFK, or LGA? You can't become the biggest if you don't even fly to major every city, because your strategy prevents you from doing so.
 
cloudboy
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:05 am

Are we talking biggest as in the most passengers carried, as in the most profitable, as in the largest number of flights, or as in the largest number of cities served. Or, for that matter, the largest operation?

Anotherwords, there really is no one answer. There will be carriers that focus on profits but aren't biggest in size, airlines which carry lots of people but only between a few points, and airlines that service lots of cities and have many aircraft but which don't fly as many people. Maybe that is where the industry is heading - no longer will there be any one dominant airline - everyone will focus on their little niche.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
Guest

RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:10 am

Without one of the major network carriers ceasing operations / merging, it'll be pretty hard to overtake AA/UA/DL -- all three are twice the size of NW/CO/US, let alone LCC.

(and I'm talking about total operations, not domestic)
 
jeffrey1970
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:13 am

I am not sure if I was running an airline that I would want to be the biggest airline. It seems to me that when you are the biggest you have no place to go but down. I would want to be the most efficient airline.

God bless through Jesus,

Jeff
God bless through Jesus, Jeff
 
freshlove1
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:28 am

ACA!!!!LOL!!! you can't be serious?? they wont survive once they go independent and actually have to earn their money. Should have joined up with MESA, atleast we will still have jobs 10 years from now.
 
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Jetsgo
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:32 am

Forgive me for this probably stupid question, but what the heck is ACA?


Chris
Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
 
freshlove1
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:34 am

They fly under UA Express now, they are going to become Independence Air in a few months and no longer fly for UA.
 
LHR001
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:34 am

It will most likely be Southwest Airlines or American Airlines.... However, if American Airlines Pilots keep flipping off foreign authorities... I dont see them continuing with such praise from the flying public.... Odds are that within 10 years US Airways, and Song will be put out of their misery!



LHR001
 
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:45 am

Klwright69

Keep in mind that WN deos fly to NYC via ISP. Also, how can you say that Southwest can't become the biggest because of their strategy? Have you been living under a rock for the last 32 years? We are right there...actually surpassed Delta in terms of domestic passengers carried in June or July. That combined with what seems like our newfound strategy of avoiding the secondary airports in favor of the larger ones (Ex. PHL over ABE) will probally what puts us over the top.

Don
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DeltaRules
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 3:50 am

Seriously, I think it'll be Southwest.

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texan
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:15 am

WN will likely be at or near the #1 mark in many categories. However, FL will probably be hard charging up that ladder, and F9 might be as well. The legacy carriers still around will still serve more cities, but WN will fly more passengers more miles than the other airlines. And for those who wonder why I did not include JetBlue in here, it is because I am not convinced that they have a strategy that will succeed in the long term. They are currently doing ok, but it'll be interesting to see how events proceed in the next 3-5 years. Still rooting for them to succeed, but just am not sure if they actually will.

Texan
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Gnomon
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:15 am

It's a shame that everybody is predicting Southwest will be No. 1.

It's a greater shame that they're probably right.

For me, I'll do my bit to keep supporting the legacy carriers. Just watching "Airline" -- and its ridiculous singing flight attendants and the unfriendly folks down in baggage service, not to mention the slice of humanity that flies WN -- reminds me why I'll gladly pay more money to fly with Delta any day. As does my last flight on WN, from CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO-BNA, when a F/A argued in the aisle for FORTY MINUTES with the passenger behind me about why the passenger didn't receive the cocktail she requested from the same F/A on a previous segment (FLL-CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO). For FORTY MINUTES, they argued.

Sure, sure, there are bad apples on every airline, but based on my WN experiences, those kinds of things have happened with much greater regularity. But money talks -- and the passengers keep coming back to WN because of their low fares. They don't promise the traditional, reliable, somewhat-stuffy environment of the other majors. They're brilliant, really, and they probably will be No. 1 in terms of pax enplanements.

But the point-to-point model of WN and some other LCCs doesn't support the type of network penetration seen in the majors. We see the same phenomenon in the railroad industry, when deregulation slimmed down the railroad net to major cities and required overcompensation by some firms to re-serve smaller markets. The same process is happening over a much longer time frame in the airline industry. Cities like AGS, CHA, GNV, etc. obviously don't support point-to-point flying by an LCC like WN. It'll be interesting to see, in five years, how successful AirTran's JetConnect product will be in providing LC service to smaller markets.

I would argue that because the folks in smaller communities must continue to fly -- and because LCCs won't service those communities with the frequency and regularity of the legacy carriers -- the traditional carriers will always be around. People in AMA can fly to DAL for $79 each way, but some of those people still will need to go to AA), Japan">NRT or CDG, and those routes for various reasons will likely never be dominated successfully by LCCs. International LCCs have been only nominally successful since deregulation.

Therefore, I'm sure that one carrier among DL, AA, CO and NW will be the No. 1 carrier in 10 years in terms of total enplanements (including international) and cities served. WN can't expand ad infinitum under its current model, and consistently has articulated a decided reluctance to change its philosophy and take risks in today's volatile environment. It would take a substantial reversal in WN's approach -- heretofore low-risk -- to see it approach the legacy carriers in terms of markets served, and WN's history shows it's extremely unlikely such an alteration would come to fruition.
 
frontiers4ever
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RE: In 10 Years.....Who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:26 am

I believe it will be NWA, or Continental. For a couple of reasons their hubs and positions right now. LCC's except for WN and HP still have small fleets, with the way B6 is growing their labor costs will probably kill them, but they still might make it through, remember, international carriers will be around in one form or another and LCC 737, 320 cant serve London, Tokyo, and such. Just my thought but hey I might be wrong.

-Frontiers4ever
Until you prove, your right, your wrong
 
CALMSP
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:39 am

the thing people need to realize is that all these LCC are very young. Planes, employees, are very very junior, wait until their aircraft start to require more and more maintenance, or their employees start to become more senior and wil be making more than 10/hour, or when they want to have more medical coverage and etc. When this all starts to settle in, these carriers will be just like the others and have more expenses like those of today.
 
Guest

RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:47 am

NW/CO are half the size of AA/UA/DL. Unless one of those five carriers ceases to exist (bankruptcy or merger), NW/CO will not catch up in size....
 
goingboeing
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:50 am

WN? Seriously?? This is the airline that will return to DEN when "pigs fly." The carrier that doesn't even serve EWR, JFK, or LGA? You can't become the biggest if you don't even fly to major every city, because your strategy prevents you from doing so.

I guess you're right. They are second only to Delta in terms of domestic passengers carried...That's today. And that's without JFK,EWR, or LGA.
 
dsuairptman
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:50 am

IP: Yes, I would like to see NW @ #1 in ten years, but we will probaly see a low cost carrier.

My vote would go to either WN or FL as their both growing right now. (And turning profits...)
GEAUX SAINTS!
 
ual777contrail
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RE: In 10 Years.....Who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:51 am

For those of you who cant take a joke....ACA Will not be #1, just a joke.


CALMSP,
You hit it right on the head, once these NEW airplanes start to get older they will cost more.

I think UA,AA, will ALWAYS be up near the top, I don't think DL will be close but they will be top 7.

I don't think US will be around, and WN will top off soon.

UAL777CONTRAIL
 
Guest

RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:03 am

Dsuairptman,
I don't think NW will be #1. Nor do I think a LCC will be... #1 is commonly measued in revenues, and as long as UA/AA/DL continue to have last international markets - where the big revenue is - and WN has nothing, they won't catch up in that respect. And FL, B6, etc. will not be able to grow fast enough to overtake UA, AA, DL -- the only way UA, AA, DL will fail is if they cease operations (bankrupt,merger).
 
Worldwide
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:04 am

I think the answer lies in the management of the legacy carriers. If they get their act together and stop all the foolishness, then my answer would stand that AA, UA, DL, CO, or NW will be the largest overall. If they continue in the current pattern, then one of the LCC will surely come out on top. Yes, the costs of WN, B6, FL, and such will go up. But, the management of these airlines have proven that they have what it takes to get the job done. Over the past three years, we have heard nothing but negativity from the 'majors'. All the while, the LCC's have been bulking up and making cash consistently. It will be very interesting in 10 years who will be left standing. In 1980, no one would have imagined that PAN AM or Eastern would be gone by 1990. But things happen and the market responds! I think we will be missing a few carriers, both big and small. Who knows what next major catastrophe will happen? I guess I will just have to wait and see......
 
Guest

RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:12 am

1. Delta
2. Northwest
3. Continental
4. American
5. Southwest
6. United
7. Jet Blue
8. US Airways (if they survive)
 
ScottishLaddie
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:29 am

1. Continental
2. United
.......
 
cba
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:44 am

A supercarrier made with the tri-merger of CO, NW, and DL.

Actually, I bet that the several alliances will become global, superairlines. For example, Skyteam Airlines, with hubs in ATL, CDG, CO / LIRF), Italy">FCO, INC, etc.
 
maiznblu_757
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:46 am

Mexicana or Aeromexico for sure!  Big grin
 
alphascan
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:59 am

IP:

I always thought the largest carrier was measured in ASMs or RPMs. As when AA replaced UA.
"To he who only has a hammer in his toolbelt, every problem looks like a nail."
 
Guest

RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 6:01 am

Alphascan,
You're right, I'm typing too fast to think today  Smile.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:48 am

Ha! I could just see DL/NW/CO merging and being the airline trust in the U.S. Now wouldn't that be horrible? No other airline would survive a chance at surviving, giving us passengers higher prices to pay.

But that probably won't happen, so my vote goes to WN (in terms of passengers carried). This is why:

-They already have huge hubs in LAS, PHX, BTW, and if US goes under, then PHL will be theirs also.
-They have airport where they are extremely well established such as DAL, HOU, MDW, LAX, OAK and CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO.
-They have many point-to-point passengers. If they can convince someone to fly to Amarillo, then who knows what else they could do!

After Southwest, I would say DL. They in no way will go under. It's a very strong airline that's run well financially. Though they are suffering now, they are doing everything in their power to stop losing money.

I also see FL near the top. They could do some more serious damage in ATL - if that new terminal is built - then they could really expand a lot more. I also see them really expanding in BTW and perhaps establishing a west-coast hub. FL reminds me of WN in some ways, actually.

Truly, I don't see JetBlue anywhere near the top. I belive they will be perhaps triple the size they are now, but that's still not big compared to AA, UA, DL, NW, CO, US, WN and HP.

My thoughts,
JetBluefan1
 
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:23 am

In terms of pax carried:

1. Southwest (will have to expand to more cities, incl. int'l to Mex, Can. Carrib.)
2. Continental (Will be the first legacy carrier to return to true profitability, strong Int'l)
3. Delta (Will Drop Song, lower costs co. wide, drop MD-80s, 732, etc)
4. American (after being on the verge of Ch.11, will lower costs, drop some a/c, routes)
5. Northwest (Drop DC-9s in favor of 318/717/or E-190, MEM droped (?), still a strong co.)
6. US Airways (Drop PIT, drop more 737s in favor of ERJ-170/190, expand carrib./Centr. Amer/Europe)
7. JetBlue (more coast to coast, will serve more cities WN won't serve; more carrib.)
8. America West (More non-hub flying, drop 737/757s, add A318/321, more Mex; maybe Hawaii)
9. AirTran (will continue to criss-cross the country; open up more 'mini hubs', more outside U.S.)
10. United (drop LAX, IAD; drop Ted, DEN/ORD incr. competition will hurt UA; but SFO/Asia-Pac. will be its assets.)
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:29 am

Forgive me for this probably stupid question, but what the heck is ACA?

Not a stupid question at all! I'm sure there's others who don't know, either. ACA is Atlantic Coast Airlines. They currently operate as United Express on the east coast, with their primary hub at IAD. ACA has been in the news a lot lately, mainly becuase they gave UAL the finger and announced plans to go it alone and start their own LCC. I think they also operate Delta's commuter spinoff, as well as others. I don't know a whole lot about them, just vis a vis the UAL situation.

As far as the topic goes, I think most of us would be hard-pressed to predict #1 (whatever that means...we don't even know the category) a year from now, let alone 10. Depends on the outcome of Gulf War III and if the future regime in Iraq is overthrown by President Jeb Bush.  Big grin
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
NIKV69
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RE: In 10 Years.....Who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:36 am

I know WN flies out of ISP, but not being at JFK or LGA does keep them from being really big, WN is going to be around for a long time and only grow if they make the right moves and expand and get some good routes.

Hard to say who is going to be #1 in 10 years.

I will continue to fly CO and AA, and use WN as my LCC when it can save me some money and I need to go somewhere they fly.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
trijetfan1
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:57 am

CO, all they need is more long range jets and they are #1.
Earned PPL June 26, 2007
 
Thrust
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 12:42 pm

Probably SWA, AA, or CO. Who knows what will happen between then and now though?
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:07 pm

Southwest has been doing things their way and profitably for 30+ years now. They are currently #1 in terms of domestic passengers and unless they really screw up their business plan when Herb is gone I think they can overtake ALL carriers in terms of ALL passengers carried.
PHL came as a surprise but I firmly believe they smell US's blood in the water regardless of what they say.
No legacy carrier has really learned to deal with them directly, their prescence in STL drove down TWA's yields (among other factors) and helped push in them into the benevolent arms of AA. And AA remember, dropped their SJC hub as soon as they learned WN was starting service.
The prescence of WN in SLC has forced DL to turn it into CLE-West, with more RJ's and less mainline.
WN devoured US's BWI hub (not that BWI was a major priority for US at the time, though they did waste resources on MetroJet to defend their turf).
WN serves many markets that are ripe for a connect-the-dots expansion without adding a single new city.
WN has additional terminal capacity at HOU, MSY and BWI coming their way relatively soon. If they press the issue, DTW as well. STL has plenty of open space should they decide to expand there.
If US's situation gets worse, PHL is wide open. What legacy carrier wants to take them on there?
WestJet, the Canadian Southwest is expanding to the US. If WN decides to join forces with ANYONE, it will be them. Aloha hits alot of WN markets in the west from Hawaii as well, that may be a consideration.
WN's long haul flying is still a minor percentage of their ops, but growing. Back to the connect-the-dots-theory, plenty of transcons and semi-transcons could be added to their system, thus driving down the legacy's yields.
And so on and so forth....


"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer Night's Dream
 
CRJmx
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RE: In 10 Years.....who Will Be The #1 US Airline?

Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:30 pm

UAL 777 CONTRAIL,

I needed no explanation to know that you were kidding. LOL!!

freshlove1,

Have you seen what Mesa employees make? Come on, you have to draw a line between what you do for a living and living for what you do. My 2 cents.

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