So far the following is the list of airlines that have ordered the Airbus A380-800...

Air France (10)
Emirates (41)
ILFC-USA (5)
Korean Air (5)
Lufthansa (15)
Malaysian Airlines (6)
Qantas Airways (12)
Qatar Airways (2)
Singapore Airlines (10)
Virgin Atlantic (6)

And the A380-800F...

Emirates UAE (2)
Federal Express (10)
ILFC USA (5)

Are there any other customers?
Potential customers? BA? AZ? SR? CX? UPS?

I guess BA will order one.

I guess BA will order one. Only 1? I would expect atleast a few more  .

LHR340

I'm pretty sure about BA want make orders with new A380 anytime soon and who knows?  

I think BA will eventually place an order. Considering that the aircraft won't enter service until 2006, and taking into account the number on order, the earliest delivery slot BA could get would be at least a few years after that, at which time some of their 747-400s will be nearly 20 years old. If there was a need for additional capacity at this time, the A380 could be ideal as a replacement for some older 747-400s.

I'm still amazed Emirates ordered 41 A380s!

BA would seem like a likely candidate. Of US airlines the only one I can see would be NWA for use on it's routes to Asia.

But I also think it's very likely you'll see some unexpected airlines order them once they have been in service a while and proven themselves in the market. Especially competitors on the routes the launch customers use them on.

cheers, Ralph

OK..........What in the world is Emirates going to do with 41 555 passenger A380s???

If they haven't bought any 744s and the largest planes they have are 773s, it seems as if 41 A380s is a bit much in capacity requirements! Not even Pan Am bought that many 747s when they launched the type with an order for 25.

-Trent

41 555 passenger A380s???

Actually, they're hoping to fly a portion of them with 650-680 pax

TradewindL1011
The Chairman of Emirates has said publicly a number of times, that Emirates is very short of capacity and require "many more aircraft to achieve our goal of becoming a truly global airline". Indeed, the capacity shortage is why they have taken the ex-SQ A340s from Boeing Capital. The A380s are part of a massive expansion that they are carrying out. They obviously have big ambitions, good luck to them.

I agree that it sounds a lot, but look at the way Emirates have expanded over the last decade. They are managed very, very well and I doubt they would put in such a massive A380 order if they didn't need it.

The Middle East is packed with high density routes!

Flights to the Far East, India, Europe, and Africa are endlessly packed with passengers. Considering the amount of people living in that region alone, I would imagine that 41 A380s will easily be filled. EK is looking forward to a bright future!

I am even thinking that Kuwait Airways or Saudia might join in and buy a couple of A380s!

Alright, make that 650-680 pax. But that doesn't quite answer the question. I still don't see a need for such a capacity if many airlines these days are downsizing (not upgrading) the capacity on their long haul routes due to decreased passenger loads.

This is a my opinion. It seams clear that AZ wants for its long haul fleet to go all Boeing. I don't anyway exclude that in the future if the results of the new Alitalia Industrial Plan will be good (having them expressed the idea to expand their operations especially at Intercontinental level) that they will take a few A380. But at the moment surely not.

TradewindL1011
That may be the case with US and European carriers, but as MEA321 points out, the Middle East is full of high-density routes, and Emirates is still anticipating huge growth.

Well, there we go. Thanks for the info! I should have guessed this considering all the widebodies Saudi Arabian operates.

Regards,
Trent

Considering environmentalist factors, I think that BA would definitely want to invest in at least 10 A380s to cover their transatlantic routes.

They have several flights each day to BOS, JFK, and IAD. These flights could be cut down to less frequency, higher volume trips.

That would make a lot of environmentalists happy.  

Think about the Asian routes too from Europe.

The Trent 900 engines have the lowest emmisions per pounds of thrust, compared to any other large turbofan engine!

Actually, they're hoping to fly a portion of them with 650-680 pax

And, a good portion with 450-500 seats in ultra-high luxury for long trips.

N

South African want to buy 4 A380.
Iberia?
China Airlines?

Ivo

What about potential North American customers for the A380.

I am thinking along the lines of AC, NW, or UA. It would be a huge benefit for these airlines to buy the A380 because of operating costs and cargo/pax capacity. Plus, no other company offers a similar product.

Personally, I think it would be unfortunate if the projections for the future hold to be true and the North American carriers miss out on the expansion of capacity trend. Especially for AC, which is ailing at the moment.

Some other heavy density routes the come to mind are the Central/South American routes. Could we see an order by Lan Chile or Varig perhaps? Grupo TACA?

MEA321 BA wants frequency across the Atlantic. If it orders A380s it will be for its longer routes where frequency is not an issue and capacity is, e.g SYD, MEL, SIN, BKK, HKG, NRT, JNB, LAX, SFO. These are also routes where there are limited departure times from the UK, e.g late morning and late night for BKK and SIN. As to when BA would order any A380s depends on the direction it wants take with its fleet. It could opt to go for 773s to replace the earlier 744s leaving the newer 744s to operate the longer longhaul routes. In that case it would be a few years before any BA A380 order.

Of course, only the people at Waterside really know the answer! 

I expect there will be incoming orders in the not too distant future from the larger long-haulers with sound regional infrastructure and aging 744's - BA (8), CX (8), TG (5) and others later like NZ (5), South African (4), China Airlines (5), Iberia (6).

I believe there will also be a large Mainland China order from the CAAC and possibly a Japanese order at some stage.

Once the flying public are used to this new behemoth and it has become de rigeur to fly, maybe a couple of American airlines will order - NWA and United?

Saudi Arabian is the largest Haj carrier and flies many intensive regional routes so may well order at some stage, but I believe they too will wait for the craft to become accepted.

And of course, launch customers will start exercising their options!

41 for Emirates?!! What do they want to do with this huge aircrafts?
A330, A340 and 777s are not enough for such a small country?

For sure there will be other customers across the globe. A380 is a completely new aircraft with many new features. If it proves to deliver what it says it would, and the airlines that ordered them are satisfied, then that will lead others to buy.

However, 41 do seem a little too many

If they haven't bought any 744s and the largest planes they have are 773s

As Emirites use 10 abreast seating in economy the pax capacity between the two small

is there going to be an A380 combi?

Roberta, the Combi thing is a bit tricky, since the FAA will no longer certify new designs with cargo and pax on the same deck. I suppose cargo on the main deck and pax on the upper deck would work, but this would not be a very flexible airliner configuration wise.

There is no way that AZ or LX (SR) will get any....

Do you think any airline will have such 'luxurious' on-board facilites such as creches, resturants, shops, etc, or were these ideas brought up by Airbus to attract attention. Even though Virgin Atlantic hinted it may include such features, I don't think many airlines will want to scrifice much space. After all the A380 was designed for high capacity.

I think JAL or ANA got to need them in long run to keep competitive with other global carriers.
On other hand maybe one of the 3 big Chinese carriers.

I see the next orders coming from mostly Asian carriers.

What are the chances of AI, UL or PIA even thinking about the A380?

I mean after all these carries operate in a region with one of the largest concentration of people and economically there is a lot of growth there.

Airlines such as AI, UL, and PIA are followers in that region. What I mean by followers is that they are low risk airlines that follow the lead of other larger carriers. EK would be a good example of a leader in that region.

If the A380 is successful with EK and QR, then look for orders by those above mentioned Asian/Middle Eastern carriers.

Same goes for the other carriers mentioned in this thread. With 41 A380s, EK has a trememdous opportunity to wet/dry lease a few of those to other carriers.

I don't like to admit this, but the A380 is a risky move for any airline these days. The future projections are so unreliable. Lets wait and see what happens.

I'm guessing Emirates will be leasing out many of their A380's - they may have planned it from the beginning.

EK seem to have set up a growing/efficient hub in Dubai. I read an article while in Manchester England last week that they recently doubled their service from there, to two 332 per day. This is now not enough so one flight becomes a 777. They are starting flights from GLA and additional service from Birmingham. If I am correct approx 60% is transit, so as more flights/frequency is added, then the prime routes LHR, HKG, NRT etc will need extra capacity hence 380. They even said that MAN may see a 380 rotation after a couple of years in service.

MEA321: That was quite a silly comment regarding UL being a follower in the region. I dont think UL has been a follower, they have been usually a trendsetter in that particular region. Please dont lump UL into the same category as AI, PIA or Biman, etc. UL is in a different class of airline than those in that region. Please read u r facts before making up stories that have no basis or facts.

For your information:

* UL was the first to purchase the L1011 and the B737 in that region. (South asia)


* When a340's were introduced by airbus, UL was under its own management. UL was the first airline in all of Asia ( Not only South asia) to buy the a340 and then again when the a330 was introduced UL was the first in the South Asian region to buy it. (This fact is there on the Airbus website). The a340 purchase was controversial in Sri Lanka with the government because the decision to go all airbus was made far back in 1994 by the then government which was uncommon in Asia at that time. It looks like their smart decision paid off.

* Only now after so many years are carriers like Biman, Air India, PIA are considering purchasing newer planes.

* UL was the first to introduce IFE with PTV's on each seat in that region.

* CMB is the only place where Airbus feels they can have a maintenance base with properly qualified staff upto Airbus standards.

* Lufthansa Technik even groups CMB maintenance highly which can be seen if u read their global reports.

* One main reason CMB and UL is an airline and place where english is spoken whereas the others in the region are not like that.

*Even EK recently purchased a340's. The story was that if EK couldn't get a340s' in time, they would have leased the UL a340's until their arrived. Since UL is like a subsidiary of EK.

* UL is interested in buying the a380 but not at present because they are interesting in developing their destination network because of the new peace agreements in the country. I think UL will buy the a380 later onwards in about a few years time when they need it.

* EK wasn't a leader in the region until recently. EK started in 1987 with many pilots who were employed at UL going to it and like I said before with two leased airbuses from PIA. The best thing about EK is the government is not as corrupt and they are highly managed is why one day they will be the best airline in the world, if they are not already.

* EK will become a global leader in the world, if not they already aren't. I have a feeling they will also become the biggest airline in the world, with connections to every city in the world.

* UL keeps on winning worldwide entertainment and in service awards second only to EK unlike the other airlines in that region.

I like EK and UL, always have.

Regards,

YYZ4RADD

I'm guessing Emirates will be leasing out many of their A380's - they may have planned it from the beginning

Then why are they leasing in yet even more A380s from ILFC??

PW100

YYZ4RADD,

I appologize if I offended you. You seem very emotional about that airline. I made that comment based on my own personal observations, and the fact that their fleet is so small! Only 5 A340-300, 4 A330-200, and 3 A320. Thats only 12 aircraft.

My argument is based on market share also. I dont back down from my claim that they are a follower in that region. They are certainly not a leader.

Your knowhow seems impressive, and your argument is compelling. However any airline can have nice planes from the inside, such as MEA. But that does NOT make them a leader by any means.

I agree with you that they are trend setters. If in fact your statements are true then in fact they would be a trend setter.

Back to the topic. The A380 was ordered by EK because they have confidence in it. UL did not. If and when the A380 becomes a success you can bet UL will be knocking on EK's door.

I am not emotional about that airline. And by no means I am taking it personally. Its just so many people have so many and strange biases I was pointing out the facts. Mushaaarif !!

I would be equally emotional about MEA too....one time I was equally emotional about MEA for which my post was deleted because I decided to indicate to a member who became too political and decided to take a anti-MEA / anti-MEast stand.

Having a small fleet size or large fleet size doesn't make anybody a leader.

Look at Saudia in the middle east region, they have one of the largest fleet and look at EK. EK has become a global player with less than 60 planes.

SV with a fleet close to 200 is one of the largest airlines in the world but their "leadership" ability is quite hindered due to many factors. ( I am sure if u are from the middle east you can figure out why !!...eg. baksheesh, etc).

If I take u r position then EK would be a follower in the middle east region because they have such a small fleet compared to SV and the same would apply to MEA because they are also a follower (according to u r argument).

MEA with such a small fleet is also making waves in that region. Look at RAM or even Egyptair and compare them to EK or MEA. It would be quite silly to call them followers because they have a small fleet size.

EK Didn't order the a380 because they had confidence in it. They ordered it and in large numbers for these reasons:

* First they needed the capacity of such a large plane to become the largest mover of airline passengers in the world (ie for capacity reasons). EK's goal is to become the largest airline serving every country and every continent and the best airline in the world and the a380 would achieve that. This goal reminds me of another UAE product the infamous BCCI bank which was present in every country and every continent until their bad demise.

* Second having a new aircraft like a380 gives them enormous publicity which will raise their profile compared to other airlines. If u notice, EK has been a first customer for new plane lauchnes over the last few years...a330, B777-200ER, B777-300ER, a345 and a346 and now the a380. They are also talking about becoming a launch customer for the B7E7. So much so that that EK's word about planes are taken very seriously by manufacturers (recently regarding EK's comment about the B7E7 was taken seriously by Boeing and EK's request about having a stretch a380 by Airbus). EK is now in their own league and also in the league of Singapore, Cathay, Qantas, South African.

UL's goal is different that is why they are not going a380 crazy at the moment. Eventually they will. For present they are developing their route network and intensifiying it and getting clients (so as to speak). They are trying to concentrate on high passenger destinations like Europe, China, India. When they do get to a point they can guarantee high load factors, slot restrictions and higher demands on certain routes I am sure they will buy the a380.

UL cannot be compared to AI or PIA. No offence to any south asians but AI, Biman and PIA are third class airlines in that region compared to UL. Its not only about fleet size but also about service, etc.

Take care for now.....shoof

Regards,

YYZ4RADD

I was just wondering what will Emirates do with 41 A380's That just seems like they went overboard with ordering so many of them.

Oh my favorite thread, every other week!

I don't think Boeing will give up on their flagship, the 747. I doubt the A380 will capture most of the 747 replacement market either--most of it will be covered by the A346/773ER and hopefully a newer 747.

The problem for Airbus now is that every obvious A380 customer has ordered it. As we get closer to the time when the A380 will enter service, it is less likely for a new customer to order it.

Trent: "OK..........What in the world is Emirates going to do with 41 555 passenger A380s???

If they haven't bought any 744s and the largest planes they have are 773s, it seems as if 41 A380s is a bit much in capacity requirements! Not even Pan Am bought that many 747s when they launched the type with an order for 25. "


Trent, did you inform yourself about Emirates? A fast growing high quality airline.
"Not even Pan Am..." - what is Pan Am? It's holy ?
Pan Am is dead - EK everything bud dead and still growing  

lol - Rjpieces with his "Airbus 380 never has a Chance against 747" statements again.
As you can check in your "long" experience in airliners/planes, you know what people said about capacity of a 747 in the 70's. They didn't give a chance to that plane. Those "experts" didn't want to hear their own statements any more after couple of years.

And read my signature, Rjpieces  

I don't think Boeing will give up on their flagship, the 747. I doubt the A380 will capture most of the 747 replacement market either--most of it will be covered by the A346/773ER and hopefully a newer 747.

I said something similar to this half a year ago

"I don't think Boeing will give up on their charismatic plane, the 757. I doubt the 7e7 will capture most of the 757 replacement market either--most of it will be covered by the A321/737ng and hopefully a newer 757."

I believe that TG should get some A380's. Not many, about 5 or 6, or routes shuch as BKK to frankfurt, london, sydney, los angeles and new york.

What is this infatuation that BA is going to order this plane? I am in the camp that says they are going smaller with their fleet and trying to lure the premium passenger instead of the catle car route. Why were there reports that BA was looking at unloading some 744s to CX or someone else then? The A380 is not coming out yet. There had to be a reason that they were doing this or even looking at this as an option.

BA wont be ordering any A380's for a good while yet.

Theyll watch how the QF orders go, monitor the usage/load factor and general success and efficency first.

As they are part of one world and codeshare with BA, this is the logical way for BA to "try before they buy".

Pouyazad:
41 for Emirates?!! What do they want to do with this huge aircrafts?
A330, A340 and 777s are not enough for such a small country?

If the size of the country was all that mattered, then what in the world is SIA doing with all those planes they operate?

True, I also think that 41 A388s is stretching it a bit, but seeing that these birds don't come for free, I'm certain that EK will have thought about it a bit...

And, StefanDotDe, concerning Rjpieces' signature - if I look at some of the busses I see driving around here in Munich (those blue ones owned by the Münchener Stadtwerke and built by MAN), I'd say if one of those things ever left the road in an upwards direction, I'd be happy if I'd trust in God... now, if he was speaking about an Airbus, that'd be different... 

Regards,
Frank

P.S.: Would you mind if I adopt your signature? I like it - and so far I had absolutely no idea, what to put in there...

I just have one thing to add that hasn't been mentioned.

Those airlines that opt to "wait and see" what happens with the A380 may very well end up being left in the dust.

It is the pioneering airlines like Cathay, QF, SIA, EK, QF, Virgin and SAA who are taking risks that might pay for them big time. And if (when?) it does, there will be a massive rush to order more A380s to replace aging 744s etc.. not to mention compete in high-density routes.

True the A380 is a risk. It has been a risk all along. But every day that passes it gains credibility. Boeing was wrong about it in my opinion. The A380 will not fill a niche, but rather it will create its own demand.

As for the question about the luxurious models which include casino, restaurant, lounge etc... I think that had a lot to do with promotional hype. That's not to say that Airbus misled anyone. Those options are a reality and at least Qatar Airways is planning on using the A380s space to introduce luxury back into air travel. Airbus probably knew most operators were interested in cramming people like sardines in the new aircraft, but it sure didn't hurt to embelish the possibilities.

Maybe Boeing is embellishing its "Dreamliner" concept as well and we might end up with a marginally quieter and not much more spacious plane yet again (although I really hope this won't be the case!)

The A380 will be a success, there's no doubt in my mind about it.

MEA321 said:
I am thinking along the lines of AC, NW, or UA. It would be a huge benefit for these airlines to buy the A380 because of operating costs and cargo/pax capacity. Plus, no other company offers a similar product.

In my opinion, the North American market is much more fragmented than the rest of the world, and so the large hub and spoke planes (A388, B744, A346) are not a good fit. Maybe a couple of routes (JFK-LAX?) can support it, but that's not enough for an order at this time. The problem also lies in the fact that the majors (who would be able to order A388s) don't have the money for it, and the LCCs don't have the business model.

Still, it would be cool to see an LCC starting A388 service across the USA on 3-4 routes. No frills cattle-car. If they could fill them that would really worry the majors.

MEA321 also said:
Personally, I think it would be unfortunate if the projections for the future hold to be true and the North American carriers miss out on the expansion of capacity trend. Especially for AC, which is ailing at the moment.

Maybe, but the A380 will still be there if and when they want it. Come to think of it, US Carriers haven't exactly been piling up the B744 or A346 orders either.


Edited to be less mean. I know when I need to change.



[Edited 2004-03-06 15:52:10]

Starlionblue,

I think you have a really good knowledge of aviation, but the way you post things does put people off you, not being nasty but you come across as a bit of a know it all.

Why dont you start a thread off?

Then we can reply to you for a change!

What, and miss out on all the fun sniping?  

Point taken though. I'll try to be more gentle.

AVANTI

You bring up a good point about the luxurious models that are depicted on Airbus's website. The first thought that enters a lot of mind when they see a wide open cabin with bar tables, couches, office desks, and showers, is that all of that space can be filled with revenue seats.

However, I do believe that some airlines such as and EK will designate a few of their planes and convert certain sections into luxury lounges. That would be the ultimate first class ticket. You can begin to imagine what those ticket prices would look like!

Again, the airline business' core is profit maximizing. The "sardine packing" concept won't be uncommon with an aircraft of this magnitude.

YYZ4RADD,

Excuse me for taking so long to reply to your statements. I did not argue airline leadership on the basis of fleet size, I have more sense than that! I argued on the basis of market share. Now that could be attributed to their small fleet size.

I still don't buy the idea that UL is not a follower in that region. Sure, they might have wonderful service, cabins, IFE, etc...And im sure they set a few trends as you stated.   Even though we can argue that all airlines are low risk, UL would be an example of an airline that is low risk to a greater extent because of their delicate situation. They certainly are not as stable as some might think!

If Emirates is ordering 4 times the a/c than SQ, why aren't they the Launch carrier???
41x555=22,755 pax!!!
Dubai's airport would overload (including the a330,777)
I think that the a380 will be a big thing for some time, but after awhile i wouldnt really pay to fly in a cattle cart, and how can airlines expect (uh-hem emirates) to fill these planes in non-peak periods?? they can't just keeping placing them in storage!
the a380 wont work in the US, it's been discussed many times. Maybe JFK or LAX,SFO, but not the rest. People in America cherish what little point to point travel we have!