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If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:42 pm
by SHUPirate1
If Delta closes their Dallas-Fort Worth hub, as they are considered likely to announce next Wednesday, is it possible that we will see American move into the E gates and build up DFW even further (such as into a DL at ATL type hub)? Perhaps this is their newly-rediscovered answer to the impending slot restrictions at ORD...

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:25 pm
by nonrevman
My guess is, if Delta mainline AND the connection carriers did go down to a few gates , I see American pursuing more gates in the B Concourse where they are already established. They would likely try and persuade some of the other carriers there to fill in the gaps left in "E". Right now, "E" is the only concourse with no walkway to any other concourse. You have to take a shuttle bus or a train in the future to connect. AA is going to want to keep its operation as close together as possible. It makes transferring passengers and luggage quite a bit easier when you are not spread over every corner of DFW airport. Also, the new international concourse will be well used by American. I just dont see them wanting the gates at E since they would be isolated from the rest of the operation. Delta would likely keep the middle gates around E-15 while Northwest and Continental will keep the gates they have, which happen to be the closest E gates to American.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:30 pm
by GSPSPOT
How much bigger COULD AA get at DFW and still be manageable??

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:18 pm
by contrails
I believe that AA would quickly exploit any opening DL might give them. I just hope DL can find a way out of their wilderness and resume their position as one of the world's great airlines.

I don't see AA moving into the E terminal, it just doesn't seem to fit. But they would grab as many slots as they could, many of which would probably operate out of the B terminal, which was, when I was last there, a disgrace. I sincerely hope AA gets it fixed up soon.

Good luck DL, I hope things work out for you. Same to US and UA.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:34 pm
by SHUPirate1
GSPSPOT-Take a look at Delta at Atlanta...

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:56 pm
by rwylie77
AA's logical solution to ORD slot cutbacks would be to increase traffic through STL in my opinion.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:09 pm
by luv2fly
I am sure AA will look seriously at taking any open space to slow down growth by other carriers.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:35 am
by bartond
I hope AA doesn't take any gates at terminal E if Delta goes down. Terminal E seems old and run down to me. Not that A or B are spanking new or anything, but C just isn't that nice.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:02 am
by STT757
If DL were smart they would sell their gates to Airtran, Airtran has an eye towards DFW expansion. Encouraging Airtran to expand in DFW and away from ATL is a good thing for DL, and a pain to AA (which is good for DL).

Also there's the possibility that WN might want to add some flights from DFW which they cannot from Love Field because of the Wright agreement, serving two airports within the same Metro area is not without precedent for WN. Southwest serves both Houston airports (Hobby, IAH).


RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:06 am
by quickmover
Airtran has 4 gates already at DFW. They are subleasing 2 of these to American Eagle for now. FL needs aircraft more than gates in the short term, although they could use extra gates in some cities as well.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:06 am
by MAH4546
Delta closing Dallas will not have that great an effect on AA. They aren't going to be in that much of a rush to add capacity. They will probably be quite happy, because with less capacity and less compietition, demand for their flights will go up.

AA's logical solution to ORD slot cutbacks would be to increase traffic through STL in my opinion.

ORD flight cutbacks will be made up by adding flights in Dallas and Miami for many reasons:

1) Miami and Dallas are bigger O&D markets.
2) Miami and Dallas open new connecting oppurtunities. Outside of some small EAS cities in Missouri and surrounding areas, St. Louis does not. For example, replacing a lost MCI-ORD flight with MCI-MIA allows AA to offer one-stop MCI-SKB, MCI-GIG, or MCI-PTY service for the first time. Replacing MSN-ORD service with MSN-DFW allows AA to offer one-stop service on MSN-AGU, MSN-JAX, or MSN-EZE. St. Louis offers no such connecting oppurtunities. Also, American Eagle does not fly St. Louis-based flights (they fly RDU-STL, but that is Raleigh-originating), only American Connection.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:16 am
by NYCAAer
I doubt AA would go after DL's gate spaces in DFW. One reason for de-peaking the ORD, DFW and MIA hubs was so that AA would need to lease fewer gates while keeping the same capacity at its hubs.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:41 am
by IAHtown
I hope they don't. DFW is already on my list of airports to avoid connecting through whenever possible. I'd prefer a smaller airport like STL. Besides, I don't think AA is getting ready to expand anything. Haven't they been shrinking their (former TWA) fleet? However, I can see AA trying to grab the gates to try and keep one of the rapidly growing low-cost airlines, like FL, from having a major presence there.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:04 am
by jae172
This was posted on a local news (star telegram) papers website today:

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/9563160.htm



[Edited 2004-09-02 23:08:37]

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:21 am
by GSPSPOT
I hope AirTran snaps up some slots!!

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:26 am
by DfwRevolution
I hope AirTran snaps up some slots!!

I havn't flow FL out of DFW yet, but it is definitly on the top of my "To Fly" list. I might just break my die-hard WN loyalty, though the two really don't directly compete.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:30 am
by MAH4546
I hope AirTran snaps up some slots!!

What slots? This isn't LaGuardia or Regan.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:48 am
by JayDavis
I'd like to see JetBlue come into DFW and give AA some real competition.

AirTran CANNOT compete with AA, except on price. I worked for them for a few short months and their customer service, or should I say LACK of customer service hurts them more than anything. Their on-board service SUCKS big time. I flew with some clients to LAS on the inaugural flight and we were in Business Class. After the main cabin had received their beverage service, pretty much the beverage service in the Business Class cabin shut down also. The flight attendant had the nerve to sit down up in the jumpseat in front of customers and read the paper !! My very VIP client saw it and commented to me on it. I was thoroughly ashamed to work for AirTran at that time. AirTran MUST treat their Business Class customers MUCH better than they are doing right now or they will not gain a foothold in the DFW market at all, except on price.

I also told my superiors that they needed to add curb-side check-in downstairs at DFW if they are going to "try" and compete with the other carriers, namely AA, at DFW. They did not listen to my suggestion. The corporate market in a location such as DFW demands a curb-side check-in, no doubt. AirTran in my opinion just doesn't get it..............yet other low-cost carriers such as WN and B6 "do" get it.........


Jay



RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:52 am
by ramerinianair
One thing is for sure, FL would have a party at DFW. I'm sure they would be able to find some A/Cs to run extra DFW routes.
SR

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:04 am
by SESGDL
I doubt AA would increase service much is DL leaves DFW. Maybe we'll see an MD-80 in place of an RJ, or a 757 in place of an MD-80 to increase capacity, but not much else. A low-fare carrier would definitely come in an increase service, but that too probably wouldn't be much. I could see FL opening up more service to a few new cities, or increasing service to existing ones. I can't see B6 in DFW anytime soon, and if service were to begin, it wouldn't be from JFK. F9 could increase service to DFW from DEN, or maybe try some more point-to-point services. I think DFW will be pretty much unaffected by DL's departure, if of course, that occurs. I think we may see additional cuts in service, but I'm skeptical on whether DL is really leaving DFW. I could see service from DFW-LAX/SFO/SEA/LAS/MCO/TPA/LGA/BOS/SAN being reduced to 2 daily instead of 3, or DFW-OAK/SNA/JFK/DCA may be upgraded to mainline 737-200s. Also, don't forget rumours of Song coming to DFW. That wouldn't help AA. The outcome will be interesting.

Jeremy

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:10 am
by expressjetphx
Since AA already adequately serves the major and mid-sized markets from DFW, if DL were to pull out, IMO they should just run the exact same operation as they have, and as load factors shoot up, add frequency as necessary. Rapidly expanding at DFW will only cause over-capacity and more trouble for AA, not considering the fact that AA doesn't have much cash or a/c to expand with.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:12 am
by MAH4546
not considering the fact that AA doesn't have much cash or a/c to expand with.

American Airlines has more cash at hand than any other cartel carrier, with nearly $4B in reserve cash. They also have plenty of planes in storage ready to come out.

With that being said, you are correct, don't look for American Airlines to add very much at all for the reasons you stated.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:37 am
by 727LOVER
1) Miami and Dallas are bigger O&D markets.


HUH????  Confused

Can we see some numbers?

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:24 am
by MAH4546
1) Miami and Dallas are bigger O&D markets.


HUH????

Can we see some numbers?


Miami and Dallas are bigger O&D markets than St. Louis. Why is there a "HUH?"? Dallas is America's fifth largest metroplex, Miami is the sixth largest. St. Louis ranks 20th, with it's population nearly half of each.

2003 Census:
5) Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX...5,484,061
6) Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL...5,232,107
18) St. Louis...2,729,045

Daily O&D travel on major routes:

Dallas-Chicago: 2,357
Miami-Chicago: 3,193
St. Louis-Chicago: 1,809

Dallas-New York City: 2,873
Miami-New York City: 15,363
St. Louis-New York City: 1,216

Dallas-Los Angeles: 2,724
Miami-Los Angeles: 2,496
St. Louis-Los Angeles: 1,160

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:38 am
by brons2
In my opinion, as a passenger, one of the things that keeps DL from gaining my business out of AUS is a lack of connecting opportunities in DFW. They want to route me through ATL whenever possible, and I just don't want to do it because it makes my trip longer unless my destination is east of ATL.

I don't think, at 16% of the market, that DL has a critical mass of connecting oportunities out of DFW any longer. It's sad, because I used to constantly fly DL out of AUS in the early 90s, especially west coast destinations.

Oh well, I just booked 2 trips on AA, to XFW and to DEN. Both under $200 r/t I might add. DL was more and for XFW they wanted me to go through ATL.

WN is always my #1 choice but I do like flying AA and they're my 1st choice for places WN doesn't go.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:48 am
by AAtakeMeAway
Correct me if I'm wrong (as I'm sure somebody will  Smile
but if any other airlines were to move into terminal E, wouldn't they be leasing those gates from DL? If that's the case, do you think that DL would be choosy about who they lease their gates to, or would they really not care who gets them as long as they're (DL) getting the extra revenue from leasing the gates??
AND, again IF this is the case, how much longer does DL have the exclusive lease on terminal E for?
Also... it would appear that DL is in charge of maintaining the terminal and have just let it go to sh*t... if DL continues to just let the terminal become run down, can DFW do anything to step in to force DL to put some cap-ex into the terminal?

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:27 pm
by ramerinianair
AAtakemeaway has a valid point. I think that if DL has the mind set of moving back within the next few years and or going back to a schedule with a good size operation in DFW, they can be choosy. They could always limit each airline that wants gates to 1 or 2. Also, they could try and screw FL, because they are moving in at ATL, by not leasing any gates to them.
SR

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:39 pm
by SESGDL
"Miami and Dallas are bigger O&D markets than St. Louis. Why is there a "HUH?"? Dallas is America's fifth largest metroplex, Miami is the sixth largest. St. Louis ranks 20th, with it's population nearly half of each."

Dallas and Miami are not the fifth and sixth largest metroplexes. According to the U.S. census's site, from 1997(the most recent date that the list was compiled), they are ranked lower than that. Here are the largest metro areas:

1. New York-No. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT-PA 19,876,488
2. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA 15,608,886
3. Chicago-Gary-Kenosha, IL-IN-WI 8,642,175
4. Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV 7,206,517
5. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA 6,700,753
6. Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,971,860
7. Boston-Worcester-Lawrence-Lowell-Brockton, MA-NH 5,827,654
8. Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, MI 5,438,756
9. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 4,683,013
10. Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 3,515,358 = 4,533,882 w/ W. Palm Beach

Now I understand that all of these markets have grown since 1997, but Dallas/Ft. Worth and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale aren't as big as you stated.

Jeremy

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:55 pm
by MAH4546
Now I understand that all of these markets have grown since 1997, but Dallas/Ft. Worth and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale aren't as big as you stated.


Yes they are. Those numbers are not only seven years old, but under the old system of measuring a metroplex. In 2003, the US Census redesigned their definition of metropolitan regions. Baltimore and Washington, D.C., for example, split, among others. While Miami and West Palm Beach, among others, merged. The new top 10:

1 New York-Newark-Edison 18.6M
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 12.8M
3 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet 9.3M
4 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 5.7M
5 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 5.6M
6 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach 5.3M
7 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 5.0M
8 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land 5.0M
9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta 4.6M
10 Detroit-Warren-Livonia 4.4M

The full list is at:
http://www.proximityone.com/msa03us.htm

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:05 pm
by SESGDL
"Those numbers are not only seven years old, but under the old system of measuring a metroplex. In 2003, the US Census redesigned their definition of metropolitan regions. Baltimore and Washington, D.C., for example, split, among others."

Oh come on! Okay, our statistics are different, and the methodology of metro areas has changed. However, FLL could serve people in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale or even West Palm Beach. All Los Angeles area airports serve the whole metro area. Regardless of whether Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach were merged under the new standards, it's a given FACT that the Washington, D.C./Baltimore area is larger than Dallas/Ft. Worth and the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale metro areas. It's dumb to me that the system was changed. How can MIA/FLL/PBI be one metro area, while Los Angeles/Long Beach/Santa Ana and Riverside/San Bernadino/Ontario are two? Ridiculous. I'll give it to you that your statistics were right, but BWI for example serves both the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro areas.

Jeremy

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:35 pm
by N839MH
AAtakemeAway
"Also... it would appear that DL is in charge of maintaining the terminal and have just let it go to sh*t... "

Where did you come up with that statement? They have? The entire teminal has new carpet, new A/C/Heater (DFW paid for that). The Delta terminal hasn't looked this good in 20 years. The Delta terminal is so much better and comfortable than the other 3 (opened) terminals. AA's terminals seem to be filthy and loud because of the flooring.

Explain your statement on how DL has let their terminal go.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:57 pm
by AirframeAS
If Delta closes their Dallas-Fort Worth hub, as they are considered likely to announce next Wednesday, is it possible that we will see American move into the E gates and build up DFW even further...

If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Just how do you move into a city that you fly into/out of that is your hub and home base already?? (sarcastic...) heh! Smile/happy/getting dizzy

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:20 pm
by MAH4546
it's a given FACT that the Washington, D.C./Baltimore area is larger than Dallas/Ft. Worth and the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale metro areas.

That is a fact, it is not being disputed.

How can MIA/FLL/PBI be one metro area, while Los Angeles/Long Beach/Santa Ana and Riverside/San Bernadino/Ontario are two? Ridiculous

Size and communting patterns. The Miami-West Palm Beach metro area is actually the smallest in land area of all major metro areas. It is something like only 25-30% the size of the LA metro basin.

The new metro areas are also based on the most recent commuting patterns. According to the Census, not enough people commute from Ontario to Los Angeles and visa versa. I do think that the LA-Ontario split up was very odd (I included ONT in the Los Angeles O&D passenger counts), but the Census doesn't feel the commuting patterns justified them being one.

The Washington, D.C.-Baltimore split was long overdue. The only reason BWI acts as an alternate to IAD and DCA can be said in one word: Southwest. That is also the only reason Manchester acts as an alternate to Boston Logan.









RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:42 pm
by SESGDL
MAH4546,

I don't dispute at all what you're saying, it's just that I group the metro areas that are now split in many cases. I searched census.gov, and they also have metropolitan areas grouped together. So for all it's worth, the file is here: http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t29/tab06.pdf However, I can't find Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/W. Palm Beach on that list. It's really odd that they're missing. The info is only from 2000, since that's the most recent census data.

Jeremy

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:45 pm
by AAtakeMeAway
N839MH: I wasn't aware they replaced the carpet. That's great news! Have they re-done the restrooms also?
I don't disagree with you about the AA terminals, they're tragic in their own ways.

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:10 pm
by airstatdfw
The leases on the 3 terminals on the eastside of the airport A, C, E all end in 2009. That is when the Airport will take control over the terminals like they have in terminal B, and soon to be D. Gate E-2 is controlled by the airport and the rest of the gates are subleased from Delta. If AirTran wanted to go back to Terminal E they could they would get there old gate back. If Delta did close their hub. I could see the airport ending the lease early and take over the terminal and delta wouldn't have a say in who could come in or not.

AirStatDFW

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:06 pm
by Thrust
I would've hoped that STL would receive more flights from American since ORD is so crowded...but yea, DFW is probably what AA will add flights too, considering STL doesn't work as a gigantic hub....

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:12 pm
by AAtakeMeAway
Good info AirStatDFW. Thanks!

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:49 am
by 727LOVER
Miami and Dallas are bigger O&D markets than St. Louis. Why is there a "HUH?"?

The reason for the HUH?--because I thought you meant BIGGER THAN CHICAGO

If you go back to reply #10, you'll see how I got confused.

...does that clear it up?  Wink/being sarcastic

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:13 pm
by SHUPirate1
Let me clear this up...STL, in 2002 (2003 numbers haven't been released) carried appoximately a million more O&D passengers than MIA, and the disparity is even greater when you break out AA's O&D numbers only...to be fair, I am totally confused as to why AA dropped STL instead of SJU (AA's 9th largest O&D airport...STL was 3rd, and MIA was 6th, obviously DFW and ORD were 1 and 2 respectively)

RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:26 pm
by MAH4546
The reason for the HUH?--because I thought you meant BIGGER THAN CHICAGO

Gotcha. Sorry about the confusion.

Let me clear this up...STL, in 2002 (2003 numbers haven't been released) carried appoximately a million more O&D passengers than MIA, and the disparity is even greater when you break out AA's O&D numbers only

That's only one small detail. AA is the largest carrier at MIA, but doesn't carry more than half the traffic. While St. Louis sees everybody and their brother's Express affiliates, MIA sees a schedule that includes almost entirely mainline service. Then there is FLL, where AA is the 2nd largest carrier, and which is the area's main domestic O&D airport. And 10 O&D passengers to Buenos Aires and London are a lot more profitable than 25 to Ontario and Cleveland.

to be fair, I am totally confused as to why AA dropped STL instead of SJU

Because this isn't about "let's drop the cut the smallest hub". St. Louis conflicted with Dallas and O'Hare, San Juan didn't. San Juan plays a critical part in American's extensive Caribbean network. St. Louis was the ugly stepsister of their mid-continent hubs. St. Louis was loosing a lot of money and something had to be done. Their new, smaller St. Louis hub has been profitable for them.


RE: If DL Closes DFW, Could AA Move In?

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 2:13 pm
by SHUPirate1
MAH-You wouldn't say that San Juan, to some extent at least, conflicts with MIA?