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L.1011
Posts: 2172
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2001 7:46 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 1:49 am

Boeing is known for shooting themselves for making exaggerated sales targets (200 787's by 12/31/04.....) Have they got there yet????....

Are you joking? That 787 sales target is the first they've missed in recent history. Boeing has an excellent history of shattering sales and performance goals. May I remind you of the 777-300ER and 777-200LR? (Oops! We found more range! Twice!) At the same time, Airbus's A340-500 struggles to make perhaps the most important route for this class of plane (LAX-SIN) and the A340-600 has to have an HGW version to meet its targets. Boeing shattered sales targets on the 727, 737, 747, 757, 767, and 777. Any reason to believe the 787 will be any different once it gets going? The plane is flying off the shelves so to speak at the present time. The A350 is getting dusty. It looks like we're going to be seeing the same 66% off closeout sales Airbus needed to move A380s shortly. And isn't it interesting that the supposed king of production efficiency has been undercut by $60 million on price in this new class? I'd be shaking in my boots if were Toulouse at this time. I'd be shaking the champagne if I were Seattle.
 
NYC777
Posts: 5104
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 1:58 am

Boeing is known for shooting themselves for making exaggerated sales targets (200 787's by 12/31/04.....) Have they got there yet????....


The 787 has sold/commitments for 191 units all 2 years before the first flight and there are indications of a further 60 commitments more! That's pretty good sales. I doubt that there is another product (Boeing or Airbus) that has even come close to the numbers that the 787 has put up and all you Boeing-bashers can't even deny that.
 
Udo
Posts: 4288
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 5:16 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:02 am

Pride, Honor, Integrity... You dont' make fun of the Chinese without losing said respect. To get a sale, he will have to earn back the respect. Good luck in such short order.

After all the recent Chinese Airbus orders, that comment is really funny!  Big thumbs up


787 comfort will be unmatched. Period.

At any time, at any place? Again: funny!  Big thumbs up


1. Better cabin comfort from higher humidity

Won't remain unmatched.


2. 32" pitch with a seat design that yields equivalent 33" pitch.

Since when has Boeing built seats?


3. Higher cabin pressure, better comfort.

Won't remain unmatched.


4. 9" wider cabin than the 330 (217" vs. 208").

A320 cabin is also wider than the B737's. Has it hurt sales? No.


How's it feel up there? You know... In the Airbanus.

 Big thumbs up  Big thumbs up Please give us more!


Regards
Udo
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:07 am

I think the 787 will have unmatched comfort...

...and I think it doesn't matter one iota. The A350 will still sell, and sell vigorously. They both will.

N
 
AngelAirways
Posts: 483
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 1999 3:55 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:11 am

Picture a Homer Simpson song improvisation...

"riding along in my super humid seven eight seven,
its 9" wider so the fat guy next to me can fit his fat a** in the seat,
its oh so humid that the supersized windows are steamin' up and i can't see,
and i'm sweating like an animal, but maybe thats just meee"


How's it feel up there? You know... In the Airbanus.

I can't believe your arrogance!

That seat pitch talk is absolute nonsense. Thin seatbacks are no new space age development. Many airlines are fitting them and they can go in any aircraft.

And all of you are forgetting the chief disadvantage of the 787, something SIA chairman clearly said was a reason they did not order: high capital cost - so high that even the efficiency savings do not justify the capital investment.

Also note that Airbus are being realistic with their forecasts, which are lower than the early forecasts for the 787.
 
dvk
Posts: 1016
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2000 12:18 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:12 am

Boeing isn't that far off their original year-end sales projection, with around 190 orders to date for the 787. To make issue of missing the exact mark by 12/31/04 is really grasping...
 
milan320
Posts: 821
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 2:25 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:19 am

Don't know if anyone has seen this, but it's from Flight International, Dec. 2004:


Flight International, 21 December 2004

Airbus is confident that it will have signed up at least 50 orders for its new A350 family by the time the industry gathers at Le Bourget for the biennial Paris air show in June. Meanwhile, the manufacturer has provided the first detailed technical information on the new aircraft, which it believes will enable it to compete strongly against the Boeing 7E7 and 777-200 twinjets.

"Following authority to offer [earlier this month], we're out in the market talking to airlines," says Airbus chief commercial officer John Leahy. "With the interest we've got...we should have at least 50 orders by the Paris air show." He declines to reveal who the potential launch customers are, although Northwest Airlines, Qatar Airways and Singapore Airlines are widely believed to be leading candidates.

Leahy says that the development of the new A330-derived family will cost €4 billion ($5.3 billion), but emphasises that government launch aid - which is currently being contested by the US government at the World Trade Organisation - "is not a condition of the A350...a decision [on whether to seek launch aid] will be made early next year - probably in the first quarter," he says.

Airbus is still finalising the definition of the new aircraft, which will enter service in the first half of 2010, and expects to reach design freeze by mid-2005. Leahy says that the current configuration is the third and most advanced iteration since the A330 derivative was conceived in mid-2004.

"Version 0 was 2.5t lighter than the A330, and Version 1 was another 2.5t lighter - these aircraft had a 2009 service entry and lower non-recurring costs in the region of c3-3.5 billion," says Leahy.

Airlines were keen that Airbus maximise the performance gains, says Leahy, so Version 1.5 was conceived with an all-new, lighter wing to give the equivalent of an 8t weight improvement over the A330. This pushed the service entry back a year and bumped up the development costs to €4 billion.

Although the 7E7 is seen as the A350's main rival, Leahy says that the size and performance of the larger A350-900 model enables Airbus "to go after the 777-200ER, rather than the 7E7-9".

A350 Specifications

-800
-900

Weights (t)

Max take-off
242
242

Max landing
182
189

Max zero fuel
170
177

Max fuel (litres)
139,100
139,100

Engine thrust (lb)
72,000
72,000

Performance

Range (km)
15,900
13,900

Pax (three-class)
245
285

Service entry
*H1 2010
*H2 2010

List price ($m)**
153.5
170.5

Note *H= half **2004 delivery conditions

MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON


/milan320
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:38 am

1. Better cabin comfort from higher humidity
Won't remain unmatched.


As long as you use Aluminum it will.

2. 32" pitch with a seat design that yields equivalent 33" pitch.
Since when has Boeing built seats?


This is the standard seat that Boeing will provide via supplier. Much like Airbus does. Airlines always have the option to go elsewhere, but why walk away from a more comfortable seat?

3. Higher cabin pressure, better comfort.
Won't remain unmatched.


See #1.

4. 9" wider cabin than the 330 (217" vs. 208").
A320 cabin is also wider than the B737's. Has it hurt sales? No.


Funny you always argue that as a reason for Airbus passing Boeing. All esle is equal on the two birds.


[Edited 2005-02-09 18:40:19]
 
LifelinerOne
Posts: 1668
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:30 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:03 am

but why walk away from a more comfortable seat?

Price?? Why pay more, if it can be done for less?

When an Airbus official, like Leahy, calls an airline by name in public, the ink is often barely dry on the LOI's. In other words, Leahy is probably knowing way more than we do.

Cheers!
 
Udo
Posts: 4288
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 5:16 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:18 am

This is the standard seat that Boeing will provide via supplier. Much like Airbus does. Airlines always have the option to go elsewhere, but why walk away from a more comfortable seat?

I don't see a Boeing exclusivity for the new generation of seats, Airbus will follow.


Funny you always argue that as a reason for Airbus passing Boeing. All esle is equal on the two birds.

I have never expressed that Airbus has passed Boeing because of a wider cabin...
 Insane

Funny how you desperately try to put things into my mouth which I have never said...try something else next time.  Wink/being sarcastic



Regards
Udo

[Edited 2005-02-09 20:20:33]
 
Leskova
Posts: 5547
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 3:39 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:59 am

2. 32" pitch with a seat design that yields equivalent 33" pitch.
Since when has Boeing built seats?


This is the standard seat that Boeing will provide via supplier. Much like Airbus does. Airlines always have the option to go elsewhere, but why walk away from a more comfortable seat?

I really had to laugh hard when I read your line, Boeing7E7...

Please, PLEASE, tell me that you don't honestly believe that all airlines will...
a) be using the same seat
b) all airlines will be using the 32" pitch
... because at least concerning point "b", I'll give you a written guarantee that they won't.

Never have airlines been told by a manufacturer which pitch they are to use - and Boeing certainly won't start doing that now... not to mention that the airlines wouldn't accept it anyhow.

If a 32" pitch feels like 33" (which, by the way, probably about half of the major airlines claim about their seats as they are today), then it'll be a welcome invitation for airlines to reduce the pitch to 30", because - after all - it'll still feel like 31".

Seriously - the airlines won't care about that particular point.

Regards,
Frank
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 5:33 am

The B787 will not take airliner humidity from 0% to 60%; it will take it from 10% to 25%. Second, people perspire more when the humidity is lower. It seems the opposite because when the humidity is lower the perspiration evaporates more readily; in very high humidity the perspiration remains on the skin and therefore becomes noticable.
 
AirbusDriver
Posts: 228
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2001 8:01 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 6:26 am

I think the A350 is going to have a more efficient aerodynamic:
1) not as wide= lower drag.
2) the wing will be design after the 787 so it will be more modern/advance.

The market for the 787-3 doesn't exist, all the 767-200 size aircraft will replace by A321/B737-900.
 
FriendlySkies
Posts: 3540
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:57 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 6:29 am

I think the A350 is going to have a more efficient aerodynamic:
1) not as wide= lower drag.
2) the wing will be design after the 787 so it will be more modern/advance.


The width of the plane can be countered by the nose and such...and even such, a couple of inches won't make much of a difference.

The market for the 787-3 doesn't exist, all the 767-200 size aircraft will replace by A321/B737-900.

Tell that to NH and JL...  Insane
 
Udo
Posts: 4288
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 5:16 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 6:35 am

The market for the 787-3 doesn't exist, all the 767-200 size aircraft will replace by A321/B737-900.

What about all the A300s and B767-300 (non-ER) on medium and short hauls? Lufthansa desperately need an A300 replacement soon and neither an A321 nor an A330 or A350 can replace it for domestic and European flights. Though many people disagree, LH is a hot candidate for the 787-3.

The market exists, no doubt. And Airbus is not able to jump in. Big sales opportunity for B if you ask me.


Regards
Udo
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1633
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 6:47 am

"He has a talent of stirring up B groupies & selling aircraft. He always finds that open nerve .. Said Boeing was reinventing the A330 after the Sonic Cruiser etc..."



That is precisely his job description these days. Except the only nerves opened will be his own. Airbus is in crisis control mode.  Wink/being sarcastic
 
Udo
Posts: 4288
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 5:16 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 6:53 am

That is precisely his job description these days. Except the only nerves opened will be his own. Airbus is in crisis control mode.

Airbus is far away from being in a crisis, with its new flagship preparing for first flight. Some people are simply not able to look at things objectively.
 
transPac
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2004 12:59 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:38 am

Funny how any thread associated with Leahy turns into an A vs B slugfest. The man is a sales and marketing wizard, you gotta respect that. Ol' Johnboy is the industry exec I love to hate the most. Bring on the competition I say!
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:35 am

787-3 doesn't exist, all the 767-200

What does the 787-3 have to do with the 767-200? The 787-3 has the same cabin area as the 787-8 which is meant to replace the 767-300.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:38 am

"Though many people disagree, LH is a hot candidate for the 787-3."

I am one that strongly disagrees. If I were Airbus, I would (not in public though) bank on an LH order for A350 and chalk it up somewhere. Airbus owns Lufthansa as a customer. Period.

Lufthansa's perfunctory claims of wanting to deal with 2 suppliers are just a way to game Airbus for a few dollars off. I think going all-Airbus is a not a bad thing if that is what Lufthansa decides. But the feigned interest in Boeing is frankly dishonest and borders on cruel to the Boeing sales people that have to waste their time.



 
F4N
Posts: 507
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2000 11:37 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:47 am

To all:

Another 787/A350 thread, eh? We seem to have one of these every other day. They're rapidly becoming as wearisome and repetitive as the NW dc9 replacement, A320/737NG is more advanced than the A320/737NG or "will the A380 be a success" posts.

Look, we all know who is on what side, what your party line is and why you have religion over A or B. We also know you have a zero % chance of converting the commercial aviation infidels to your point of view, so save yourself some time & fingertips and allow the moderators to call it a day and delete this thing.

Oh, and here's a business pearl for all you patron saints of A or B; I'll bet the carriers who believe that A350 suits their requirements best will buy it. Those who believe the same about 787 will buy it. Personally, I hope every major buys both models; it will be interesting to see how the "true believers" here explain that away. "Gave them away", "politics", "subsidies" "more advanced".

The mind reels at the potential stupidity.

regards,

F4N
 
PVG
Posts: 467
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 7:39 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:05 pm

LH's stated interest in Boeing, while maybe not sincere, is something that happens everyday. You never know, Airbus may piss off someone at LH one day and they decide to give B a shot at something. Or, the B product may just be superior and competitively priced, so they'll have no choice but to buy it. They certainly seem likely to order the 777F. Point is you never know, and with such a large and prestigious buyer, you need to keep trying.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:28 pm

Perhaps I have become overly cynical about Lufthansa's pronouncements but I do not think so.

The 777F speculation is a good example. A while ago the news was going around that LH was talking to Boeing somewhat seriously about the 777F with a mention of the 773ER. I think it would be unreasonable to truly expect the 773ER to be given serious consideration given that Lufthansa has standardized on the A346. But I really began to believe that Lufthansa was actually considering the 777F based on what meager info was in the news and probably because of some things I read here.

Then LH stated they were considering adding 777F OR the A380F. These two airplane types or not comparable in anyway and have two entirely different profiles. The A380 is going to be part of the LH fleet anyway. I think the ruse was up when they made this annoucement. I think the not-very-thinly veiled message to Airbus was to "come down on price and you have a deal." I am not a Lufthansa insider nor do I know anyone there but there is a definite, established pattern. Maybe I am wrong but I would bet money otherwise.

That is why I think that, without commenting on the merits of either 787 or A350, LH will definitely go with the Airbus 350 when all is said and done.

Like I said, I think it is a perfectly fine business decision to go 100% Airbus. LH's Airbus fleet (except for the 342) has seemed to do very well for them. They ought to cut the pretense though.

PS

PVG, You are probably right. There is a reason why I probably would not make a good salesman.

[Edited 2005-02-10 06:35:45]
 
Udo
Posts: 4288
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 5:16 pm

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Fri Feb 11, 2005 1:28 am

That is why I think that, without commenting on the merits of either 787 or A350, LH will definitely go with the Airbus 350 when all is said and done.

For LH's A300 missions, the A350 is simply too heavy. It'll be a long haul jet, nothing else. Probably Airbus will be able to create a lighter derivative, but I seriously doubt that. The lack of ability to fill the A310/A300 gap for short and medium hauls is one of Airbus' major weaknesses.


Regards
Udo
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:08 am

On a slightly related note, I haven't seen any mention of yesterdays shakeup of Airbus Japan Sales Unit. Hired some more Americans, notably an former ambassador. On paper, it looked like some good hires.

How long before Americans are running the company?
 
juanchopancho
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:09 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:23 am

In the last issue of AW&ST Boeing claims to have 250 commitments for the 787, they just haven't gone public.

As for seeing A350 orders in China, I think it is a good possibility. The Chinese will favor Europe as soon as they lift the arms embargo. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried selling the Eurofighter to the Chinese...
 
Rj111
Posts: 3007
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:02 am

RE: Leahy: Sales Outlook For A350

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:25 am

I think that's a very realistic and suprisingly modest outlook from Leahy.

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