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clickhappy
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Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:17 am

If not, should they be?

It is funny how quickly things change in this business...6 months ago we were talking about Air Asia and Air Berlin, who both operate large Boeing fleets, ordering Airbus single-aisle aircraft.

Now we see Boeing winning large orders, for (what I assume to be) more profitable twin-aisle "flagship" type aircraft. Winning orders from Korean, Northwest, and Air Canada, all recent Airbus customers, has got to sting.

So what is going on here? Is it just a normal market shift? Has Airbus alienated their customers? Has Boeing finally got the lead out?
 
leelaw
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:22 am

IMO, Airbus needs to cross the composite hull "Rubicon" and quit hiding behind "durability" questions.
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YYZatcboy
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:24 am

I think they might be worried about their widebody market and the A350. I would think they would get the message the airlines seem to be sending and start with the A320 replacement.
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antiuser
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:25 am

Boeing has a good product in the 787 and it's attracting attention from all over the place. Just like Airbus gave Boeing a good run for their money with the A32X vs. the 737 and the A330 vs. the 767, now it's Boeing's turn to have the upper hand. In my opinion it's a bit too early for crisis mode - both companies have a solid order backlog - but Airbus will have to come up with something soon.

This is good for the airlines and the air travel market in general, since both companies are extremely competent and no doubt feed off each other's success in attempts to outsell one another. Makes for faster development of better products.
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Beaucaire
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:28 am

Boeing has initiated a clever move by marketing the 787 ahead of Airbus' A350 which-in my opinion- comes late for many customers.Yes- currently Boeing seems to be on a very opportunisticly driven winners- road.
I still would not- although- dismiss the capacity of Airbus to fight back.The
A380 will gain additional customers once the problems associated with airport-infrastructure issues are beeing addressed.Some airports that initially "don't see a market " for the plane will have to change positions.
The A320/A321 is a very good plane that sells in large quantities and the A330 family far from reaching it's zenith for sales. Main problem for Airbus will remain the advance that Boeing has with the 787 in cleaning up the 767 replacement market.
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clickhappy
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:32 am

Boeing has initiated a clever move by marketing the 787 ahead of Airbus' A350

I am not sure what you mean by this comment? When Boeing announced the Dreamliner Airbus replied with a "All Airlines need is the A330, the Dreamliner is nothing new" line.

It was only after Boeing starting receiving orders that Airbus announced the A350...
 
avek00
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:32 am

Truth be told, Airbus can have the last laugh in the 200-300 seat widebody category - thing is, it will require a *total* rework of the A350, and the ability to deliver it by 2011-2012.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:41 am

Quoting Antiuser (Reply 3):
Boeing has a good product in the 787 and it's attracting attention from all over the place. Just like Airbus gave Boeing a good run for their money with the A32X vs. the 737 and the A330 vs. the 767, now it's Boeing's turn to have the upper hand. In my opinion it's a bit too early for crisis mode - both companies have a solid order backlog - but Airbus will have to come up with something soon.

This is good for the airlines and the air travel market in general, since both companies are extremely competent and no doubt feed off each other's success in attempts to outsell one another. Makes for faster development of better products

I agree with this pretty much 100%. I think it's a little premature to talk crisis mode for Airbus.

There has been some talk here that Boeing was bound to win some 737 campaigns due to a fairly full A320 backlog. And we have a LONG ways to go before the 787 hit's first flight. Airbus is doing that with the A380 this week (likely). And like others have said here, it was only 6 months ago (or less) that we had the "Boeing in Crisis Mode" theme. As much as I love Boeing, that theme could easily return if a) Airbus makes some major scores, b) Airbus trumps BCA with a new all-composite response to the 787 (or 737), or c) Boeing screws something up, which can happen to anyone - announce delay in the 787 due to problems, get hit with some sort of new allegations of impropriety, earnings dive, etc.

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rlwynn
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:46 am

I do not think that Airbus has a crisis mode. Why would you need one when bailouts are an option?
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Morvious
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:09 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
Now we see Boeing winning large orders, for (what I assume to be) more profitable twin-aisle "flagship" type aircraft. Winning orders from Korean, Northwest, and Air Canada, all recent Airbus customers, has got to sting.

Not surprising for me. They are also Giant Boeing operators, and that they announced some new Boeing orders was just a matter of time.

To early for airbus to be in a crisis.
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gigneil
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:14 am

Quoting Rlwynn (Reply 8):
Why would you need one when bailouts are an option?

Because bailouts AREN'T an option. The EU doesn't blatantly provide Airbus with operating cash.

N
 
rlwynn
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:21 am

I do not think that there is any question that Airbus would not be left to financial disaster if they did not sell 1 more 380. Call it what you want.
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Revelation
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:34 am

Not a "crisis mode", but more of an "adjustment mode", which is what all successful businesses have to do.

Why do they have to adjust? Well, fuel costs are at a record high, whereas airlines have used the economic downturn to reduce labor costs. So, it appears that fuel cost is now much more significant than it used to be. Leahy's statement about not needing to change the A330 when it had 80% of the market was true when it was made, but things do change when your competitor introduces a product with 20%-30% more fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs. Also the record low of USD vs EUR changes things too.

Adjustments will be made, so let's see where we are in another six months or so.
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N79969
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:39 am

I think it is premature to declare that Airbus is in a crisis. They still have a healthy size backlog. Their big day is Wednesday and that may change perceptions especially if more orders for the A380 are announced.

If Airbus even has to consider layoffs/furloughs, particularly in Tolouse, EU money will flow. .
 
777STL
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:52 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 13):
I think it is premature to declare that Airbus is in a crisis. They still have a healthy size backlog. Their big day is Wednesday and that may change perceptions especially if more orders for the A380 are announced.

If Airbus even has to consider layoffs/furloughs, particularly in Tolouse, EU money will flow. .

Yeah exactly. The commercial aircraft industry is very cyclical especially now that some airlines are becoming more and more brand loyal.

Airbus has done quite well for themselves recently and will continue to do so for a long time to come.
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hz747300
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:54 am

Way too early for Airbus to be in crisis mode. They just have not answered the 787 with anything really competitive.

They have plenty of A380s to build, any talk of layoffs or furloughs is grossly premature. Plus they have to work on the lightweight, highly efficient, A318, A319, A320, A321, replacements.

They should only worry once orders are being cancelled all together.
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mham001
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:01 am

Its easy to forget that Airbus achieved parity largely from horribly inept Boeing management over the last decade. With even only mediocre management, Boeing can win.
If Boeing succeeds in achieving its stated goal of less than 3 year aircraft-development period, Airbus does have real long-term problems. This cannot be understated. This development would render the second-to-market theory useless as a short development period almost makes a true custom airliner feasable. Dreaming, but lets say Boeing announces a 737E at Paris, ready to fly in 2010. It would make that huge backlog of 320s shrink very quickly. It would be economic suicide for an airline to accept delivery of an outdated 320 when the competition is soon recieving aircraft with a cheaper price tag, more comfortable accomodations, lower maintenence and considerably lower fuel costs. Airbus has to be in full defense mode, hoping beyond hope that Boeing does not throw down the gauntlet with a new 737 while they are still struggling with a 380 that will never be a cash cow.
Long term, Boeing is in the pilots seat and it's possible that the 380 may become one of the great blunders in business history even if it breaks even.

[Edited 2005-04-25 20:07:41]
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:07 am

They might be if Boeing announces about 120 or more orders on the day the 380 flies. I'd call it concerned for sure.

This goes on like it is and there won't be a 350. Even if Airbus launches a new 320 they'll have to face Boeing moving out with the 737 replacement which I'm sure is in CATIA already. I figured the 787 would sell, but not this early. It's almost like a repeat of the RJ sales jump in the 90's the way the orders keep coming.
 
redflyer
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:09 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 4):
the A330 family far from reaching it's zenith for sales

I respectfully disagree. I believe the line for the 330 is nearing an end. As I stated in another post, the 787 is eating away in big fashion the market for the 330. In fact, the 350, if it sells, will simply cannibalize the remnants of its sister, the 330.
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LifelinerOne
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:18 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 6):
Truth be told, Airbus can have the last laugh in the 200-300 seat widebody category - thing is, it will require a *total* rework of the A350, and the ability to deliver it by 2011-2012.

I said it in the other topic on the Air Canada order. The A350 is already back on the drawing board as I heared at my visit at Stork Aerospace. Stork is heavily involved in Airbus by providing their invention Glare. If they work hard this plane will be available on time.

I also think that Airbus is coming up with an earlier launch of the A320NG and in order to regain initiative.

Cheers!
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WAH64D
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:24 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 16):
With even only mediocre management, Boeing can win.

   Yeah right!

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 16):
Long term, Boeing is in the pilots seat and it's possible that the 380 may become one of the great blunders in business history even if it breaks even.

And how many completely new commercial transport aircraft have boeing developed in the last 20 years? Oh, thats right, one. The mighty 777 (all respect to Boeing, its a fantastic aircraft). Airbus on the other hand: A320, A330, A340. All of them hugely successful. Somehow I very much doubt that your above statement will shine true.

Airbus has had a 767 replacement in service since 1993 in the shape of the A330, the only people who are a viable candidate for 767 replacement by the 787 are those who bought late build 767s and those who are unwilling for any reason to go from a boeing to an airbus product.

[Edited 2005-04-25 20:36:22]
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A388
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:34 am

I agree, I also think Airbus must concentrate on a A320NG to possibly get an advantage over Boeing in the narrowbody aircraft market. From there Airbus can build up a complete line of next generation aircraft, just like how they did in the time the A320 was introduced. Shortly thereafter, the A330/340 were announced and this made Airbus an attractive aircraft manufacturer at the time.

Good luck to both Airbus and Boeing.

A388
 
mham001
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:36 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 20):
And how many completely new commercial transport aircraft have boeing developed in the last 20 years? Oh, thats right, one. The mighty 777. Airbus on the other hand: A320, A330, A340. All of them hugely successful. Somehow I very much doubt that your above statement will shine true.

That just proves my point about the horribly inept Boeing management over the last decade. We now have a Boeing changing air travel comfort as we know it and building planes faster and cheaper and putting money into even more advancements. As recent events indicate, Airbus cannot count on a stagnant competitor any longer.
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:42 am

Airbus is not in crisis mode, think "long term". Lots of things can happen between now & whenever. People were just crying & doom for Boeing with Airbus orders for such carriers as Air Asia. I am sure that Airbus is a little pissed, but that is about it.

As for Airbus, they can always drop the A350 proposal, work on making improvements to the A330 with range & fuel burn, & drop the price as well, & then start focusing on the A320 program.

Airlines do not always order the "best" airplane on the market, but sometimes purchase the aircraft that they can afford or the aircraft that they can get slots for.
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WAH64D
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:43 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 22):
That just proves my point about the horribly inept Boeing management over the last decade. We now have a Boeing changing air travel comfort as we know it and building planes faster and cheaper and putting money into even more advancements. As recent events indicate, Airbus cannot count on a stagnant competitor any longer.

I agree that Boeing have upped the ante with the 787. However they are building planes faster and cheaper in which respect? The list price is not cheaper as a raft of recent A320 orders shows.

Operating economics is another matter. Its hardly surprising that the 787 will be economical, a significant proportion of it is made from plastic! If any other manufacturer builds a very light airframe, they will also see massive economy benefits.

That said, I wish Boeing the very best of luck with the 787 project. If it makes it to reality in a form similar to the computer generated images it'll be one great looking aircraft.
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gearup
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:51 am

Taken from Airbus' website

Airbus has by far the most modern airliner family and, with new aircraft that respond to every airline need from the 100 seat A318 all the way up to 555-seat 21st Century flagship A380, it is also the largest and most versatile.

Every single Airbus passenger aircraft in production today also features a common cockpit, generating valuable savings in training and operating efficiency which, depending on the aircraft mix, can be worth a million US dollars per aircraft per year.

Airbus has won a total of almost 5,400 orders worldwide, comprising some 3,500 A320 Family aircraft, over 850 A300s and A310s, more than 900 A330s and A340s, and over 150 A380s. Its aircraft have been bought by, or are in service with, some 275 customers and operators.


Sure sounds like a crisis!!!  sarcastic 
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n844aa
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:05 am

Quoting Gearup (Reply 25):
Taken from Airbus' website

...

Sure sounds like a crisis!!!

For an objective discussion of Airbus's medium- and long-term prospects, I'm not sure their website will provide the best evidence.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
knoxibus
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:13 am

One thing that amazes me still is how did Boeing managed to pull something like the 787 (and its promises)?

They surely must have been working on it for a long time, I mean it takes time to listen to your customers (because that's what they did) and manage to shape the proposal up as per their requests, which might slightly evolve.

In the other end, the oil crisis came out at the right time, but this shows how Boeing was thinking ahead (sorry but in the other hand, that's all they had to do, apart drafting some sonic cruiser drawings and working on the T7-200LR).

Currently at Airbus, everybody is focused on the A380 EIS, and when I say everybody it's everybody. So I rest my case when I say that the A350 was just a smoke screen, I mean I wished, but looking at the developments advances (many positions opened), I think unfortunately that they might go ahead with it.

However, as it was said on some other topics, don't rule them out yet. The backlog is huge, and if they were doing this bad, I wonder why they are ramping up their production lines (+50% increase on the A32X, from 20 a month to 30 a month and 33% on the long range side, from 6 to 8 a month).

One thing though is that the LR market is really out of sight for A, and I have difficulties in understanding why they can't make the planes reach or exceed their perfomances. Maybe too sophisticated and rushed through.

And that's one thing though. I hope nobody will deny that the Airbii are a bit more sophisticated and "customisable" than the Boeings. I do get these comments from several people high-up in airlines having both types of a/c.

But you got to be amazed at the 777 though (my fav a/c), when you compare only the landing gears with an A340 for instance. Very "clean" and smooth on the former, and full of tubes and wires on the latter, althoug it does its job.

So although I am pretty convinced the 787 will kick a**, I am still amazed (and a bit worried) about the giant leap this aircraft will bring to the Boeing philosophy. In the other hand they admitted to rely on the experience gained on military programs (at least somebody on these forums said that), and that's the way it should be.

I am sure their engineers will respond positively to this, as I am sure that once the "Forgeard"'s page is turned (mid-May 2005) and that internal conflicts end, airbus will put themselves back on the right track.
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Beaucaire
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:21 am

While it defenitely looks like Boeing will become this year's champion,I do not consider Airbus' R&D and marketing departments as a conglomerate of fully blown idiots...
Yes the 787 will hurt Airbus and I wish they had come up with a truely competing aircraft by 2008 .. well-that's not the case so they will convince their airline-customers by other means.The A380 will hurt Boeing more than they are willing to admit in some years -but the true battle will start in some years on the 737 and A320 replacements. You don't have to be an indian guru to predict the type of technology that will be used on those aircraft - composite by 85 %,fully glass cockpit,fully GPS-autopilot (start-cruise-land ),fiber backbone,laser-entertainment technology, liquid hydrogen engines as option ?- target beeing not more than 2 liters/passenger/100 miles consumption.
The true technology breakthrough will have to come from the engine-manufacturers as well,since we have to start thinking about kerosine-alternatives .Within the next twenty years I only seen liquid hydrogen as potentially viable source of combustion as kesosine-replacement.H² storage technologies will have to advance rapidely .
So- is Airbus in a dangerous position? Not yet -the backlogs are long - but the next two to three years will have to provide breaking news-type new technologies for Airbus in order to win back terrain lost to Boeing on a mid-market segment. Both companies are - regardless of origins -temples of great technologies that are fascinating to watch and use. I wish both companies all the luck and propsperity they both deserve.
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redflyer
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:22 am

Perhaps this belongs in a different or new thread, but if Airbus goes back to the drawing board and designs the 350 from scratch, will it still be called the 350 or will they give it a new nomenclature in order to differentiate it from what is turning out to be a bad marketing/design move?
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widebody
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:33 am

There has always got to be a No. 1 manufacturer and a No. 2 manufacturer, and in this industry neither will sit back and be content with No. 2. Airbus trumped Boeing, now Boeing is clearly trumping Airbus. Technology is evolving more rapidly than before, however this means that technology becomes obselete technology in a shorter time frame. As mentioned above, treat the A350 as a stop gap measure, and wait until 2010-2012 to launch a new product with improved technology. Then Boeing are on the back foot. Looking at the 777 and the 787, you would never have imagined that there would be such an evolution in technology in such a short space of time. The No. 1 position is always, always yours to lose.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:33 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 28):
While it definitely looks like Boeing will become this year's champion,I do not consider Airbus' R&D and marketing departments as a conglomerate of fully blown idiots...
Yes the 787 will hurt Airbus and I wish they had come up with a truly competing aircraft by 2008 .. well-that's not the case so they will convince their airline-customers by other means.The A380 will hurt Boeing more than they are willing to admit in some years -but the true battle will start in some years on the 737 and A320 replacements. You don't have to be an Indian guru to predict the type of technology that will be used on those aircraft - composite by 85 %,fully glass cockpit,fully GPS-autopilot (start-cruise-land ),fiber backbone,laser-entertainment technology, liquid hydrogen engines as option ?- target being not more than 2 liters/passenger/100 miles consumption.
The true technology breakthrough will have to come from the engine-manufacturers as well,since we have to start thinking about kerosene-alternatives .Within the next twenty years I only seen liquid hydrogen as potentially viable source of combustion as kesosine-replacement.H² storage technologies will have to advance rapidly .
So- is Airbus in a dangerous position? Not yet -the backlogs are long - but the next two to three years will have to provide breaking news-type new technologies for Airbus in order to win back terrain lost to Boeing on a mid-market segment. Both companies are - regardless of origins -temples of great technologies that are fascinating to watch and use. I wish both companies all the luck and propsperity they both deserve.

The biggest leap is going to be Forward Looking Infrared in the HUD which is rolling out in a few months and will be an option on the 787 and any other aircraft with a Flight Dynamics HUD. The rest of the wizbang is natural progression, eliminating visibility problems in thin clouds (about 65% of the IFR diverts) is the killer application:

The image is a picture taken during a CAT II approach.

http://www.keo.com/products/cs/at/page4654.html
 
commavia
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:02 am

Sorry it's long, but I have a lot to say!

While I agree that Airbus really is not in "crisis" (their A320 line is just simply too strong to warrant that word), they must be at least a bit "concerned" about the renewed strength of the Boeing marketing and sales organization. Airbus has completely dominated for about the last five years, but no it seems that the market may be evening out.

Back around 1999-2000-2001, when both Boeing and Airbus were deciding what airframe would be the future of their respective companies for the next 10 years, Boeing chose wisely and Airbus chose poorly. Airbus, flush with injected R&D cash from European government subsidies, had to pour their money into something big, and chose the behemoth A380. Much as with the decision to build the Concorde back in the early 1970s, they decided more based on spending their subsidies than on what customers want. The Concorde, after proving to be a technological triumph but an economic disaster, ultimately failed to even reach the 20-order mark.

Boeing, on the other hand, focused more on the trends apparent even then (pre-9/11) that would shape the airline industry of the 21st century. Among the trends of which I speak: over-flying existing hubs (particularly in Europe and Asia), transpacific staging (moving from all 747s from LAX and SFO to 777s from all over the US), and a combination of bilateral liberalization (lots of Open Skies) and expanding airports (HKG, NRT, SIN, etc.) leading to more frequency and smaller aircraft.

The A380 is great, a real technical marvel, and it will no doubt be a productive and profitable member of many airlines' fleets. But, I fail to recognize how Airbus could have ever thought the A380 would have an enormous market appeal, especially vis-à-vis the 787.

As I see it, 90% of the world's A380 flying is probably going to be concentrated at 12 airports: CDG, DXB, FRA, HKG, JFK, LAX, LHR, MIA, NRT, SFO, SIN and SYD. There may be an occasional KIX, or JNB, or YUL, or EK flights to India, but realistically, airlines will probably only be able to regularly fill up a 500-seat airplane on high-density hub-to-hub routes.

The 787, OTOH, is capable of flying on literally hundreds (or maybe even thousands) of routes linking virtually any two continents on earth. In today’s environment of hyper-competition and unprecedented high fuel prices, the 787’s appeal is virtually universal. With 30% lower operating costs than other aircraft in its peer group and the longest range of any aircraft in history, almost any airline (especially those in North America, Europe and Asia) could use that plane effectively.

Bottom line: the A380 is great for a select group of maybe 100-150 routes throughout the world, but the 787 can be flown profitably on hundreds upon hundreds of the world’s air routes.
 
Ken777
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:05 am

I don't think Airbus is in a crisis mode, but I do feel they are in an urgent "response" mode, as the 350 demonstrates. Their main problem today is that they need to continue to devote resources to the 380 to ensure it performs up to the airlines' expectations. It's a massive engineering effort and will continue to demand resources once it hits the fleets.

Now throw in the need to do some very serious work on the 350 in order to respond to the 787 at a level that will be competitive. That takes up a chunk of resources and engineering talent.

The concern I would have if I was working for Airbus is how fast Boeing will move on the 737E. If B wanted to put very heavy pressure on A then the 737E would run about a year behind the 787. The technology transfer from the 787 would make this possible (if the board approves) and this would put intense pressure on A.

I have no doubts that both A&B are working on advanced 737/320X designs in the back rooms - it is simply a matter of who will go public first.

Airbus is not, however, an infant company anymore and I believe they can respond to Boeing's advances. It will be more of a "strain on resources" than a crisis.
 
commavia
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:10 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 33):
The concern I would have if I was working for Airbus is how fast Boeing will move on the 737E.

I agree completely. The combination of advanced technology and superior economics that Boeing has demonstrated/promised on the 787 (which are obviously a big hit with airlines) with the basic airframe design of the most popular aircraft in commercial aviation history, the 737, would be a huge threat to the A320 line.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:17 am

Does Boeing have sufficial funding to develop the B787, B747Adv and a new B737NG2 at the same time?

Airbus "only" has to come up with 2, a opposite for the B787 and a new A320NG.

Widebody summed it up very well, when you're number 1, that place is there to lose. It's good for both companies to keep them sharp.

Cheers!
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:28 am

First off, the 747Adv program is practically done already, and will be a very cheap fix.

797 (it's going to be called that, if I have to eat my words in 6 years so be it) will derive a lot of technology from the 787 program, reducing costs and increasing commonality.

Boeing can do this if they put their mind to it. The 787, barring some extraordinary failure (which is next-to-impossible based on Boeing's history) of the design, is a huge success. Heck, they might reach break-even this year. Boeing has a good thing going, lets hope they continue it through the years.
 
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solnabo
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:34 am

Just becouse AC made a huge order today from Boeing, do you think Airbus will fall on their face? I mean, A outsold B two years in a row and now its Boeings turn to get the Golden Cup (maybe), whats the big deal?

IMO we know to little about the A350 buildt-up to make any judges and to comparing it w B787.

Who was the big whiners 6 months ago??

Micke//SE  stirthepot 
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
mham001
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:54 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 37):
IMO we know to little about the A350 buildt-up to make any judges and to comparing it w B787.

You're right, we don't. There are people who do though, and they are buying 787s.
 
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solnabo
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:05 am

Amen to that, sir!

Micke//SE  Wink
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
YULMRS
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:06 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 36):
First off, the 747Adv program is practically done already, and will be a very cheap fix.

797 (it's going to be called that, if I have to eat my words in 6 years so be it) will derive a lot of technology from the 787 program, reducing costs and increasing commonality.

Well, what you say on the 747 Advanced is exactly what was said about the A350 a few months before launching. Making new with old ... The A350 seems to be a failure, so will be the 747 Adv (or 747-500, no matter how you call it) If Boeing wants to compete with the A380 they need an all new aircraft ... This is exactly what airbus needs to compete with the 787.

I hope Boeing will not make the same mistakes ... The A350 is an useless program, one is enough.
To any North American carrier, send us a regular flight in MRS !!!!!
 
eilennaei
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:12 am

In a two-player A vs B AI game the best solution for the two is achieved not by contrasting nearly identical products but by spreading out the offering across the range. Thus the A vs B fight will continue for ever -- some products will be better suited so some users, some to others. Some feel the largest of the combined range is the best, some feel it is the more mid-sized one. Pointing out any conceived technological advantages is pointless and temporary as market dictates that any advances worth transferring will be transferred across the two players.
The only catch is the essential structure of market capitalism that will seek to gain the monopoly on the market. On the other hand, the newly acquired position of Airbus as the "missing partner" of the game is beneficial to both parties as above -- a 50% of the market will be achieved with the least effort by both by this self-organizing scheme.

-Eilennaei
 
Glom
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:29 am

I don't think the case of the 747ADV can be directly compared to the A350. For one, the 747ADV aims for a more moderate capacity market than the A380 but is bigger than the 773, hence it could be appealing to those who want high capacity, but don't want something as big and restricted as the A380, while the A350 is going after an already claimed segment. The 747ADV has the very large cargo market. The 747 is dead without the ADV so Boeing have little to lose by going ahead with it, whereas Airbus is risking their A330 line. I don't say there is a big market for it, but I think that given that it does have a niche all to itself, it stands better than the A350 does against the twin alliance of the 777/787.

I think it is interesting to look at the widebody long haul line that Boeing have set up. They have a variety of different sizes to suit all occasions. 788-789-772-773. That is two seperate aircraft covering 250-400 market.

Airbus by contrast is more complicated. They have the 332-333-358-359-345-346. That's three seperate aircraft to cover the same market. They'll probably start cannabilising each other.

There's a lot of talk about how the 747ADV is threatened by the desires of operators not to operate another type to fill a small niche. The same may hold true for Airbus's line.
 
frugalqxnwa
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:35 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 32):
As I see it, 90% of the world's A380 flying is probably going to be concentrated at 12 airports: CDG, DXB, FRA, HKG, JFK, LAX, LHR, MIA, NRT, SFO, SIN and SYD. There may be an occasional KIX, or JNB, or YUL, or EK flights to India, but realistically, airlines will probably only be able to regularly fill up a 500-seat airplane on high-density hub-to-hub routes.

That was Airbus' intent for the A380, only they have missed the mark because there are not as many routes between hubs than they anticipated. The A380 concept is a pre-911 concept that is probably not too terribly compatible with the post-911 world.

I doubt the A380 will be able to break even with production numbers, but it will be a marvelous aircraft technologically (barring anything bad happening Wednesday). I believe the concept of the A380 is comming out at the wrong time and that at another time (or if 911 had never happened) the A380 would have been a successful design.

I am personally glad to see Boeing get back on their feet with the 787 and I certainly hope they can stay on their feet. The 747Adv will be an excellent aircraft, even if the market for it is limited justlike for A380, and the 737 replacement will also be an excellent aircraft with an excellent competitor from Airbus.
 
galapagapop
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting YULMRS (Reply 40):
Well, what you say on the 747 Advanced is exactly what was said about the A350 a few months before launching. Making new with old ... The A350 seems to be a failure, so will be the 747 Adv (or 747-500, no matter how you call it) If Boeing wants to compete with the A380 they need an all new aircraft ... This is exactly what airbus needs to compete with the 787.

I hope Boeing will not make the same mistakes ... The A350 is an useless program, one is enough.

My only issue is people keep comparing a 747 (adv if you want) and an A380 when there is a decent sized capacity difference. The 747 has its niche if (and only if) its efficient. It doesn't compete with the A380. Sure there will be border line cases but it would the 747 undoing the A380 more often than not due to the A380's size. Also people get their buttons pushed when we put a 73G in 100 seater category or the 739/A321 in 757 category. Which is the way it should be but why on a huge seat difference do we compare the A380 and 747? Boeing has said they have no interest in building into the A380 size category. Its a reworked 747. Maybe an extra 10-20 seats but not a 555 seater. They have the research to prove the market is to small so they will not waste their time going into it they rather build a market to replace older 743's and 744's in service with a more efficient 747 and maybe take a bite out of those airline looking for 744 replacements that could go for more capacity.....

Back to the thread. Airbus is not in panic mode, but Boeing has the upper hand as they have the technology developed and it is safe to say they are working on putting it on a 737E. Airbus has yet to really crack this new technology as everyone at A even to the last few months has been working on the A380 and only the A380. The A350 was a smoke screen to give airlines a choice when ordering so Airbus may be able to have some airlines wait to see the A350 in full, but many I'm sure, were looking into performance of the A380(which still hasn't flown). They have fallen slightly behind on several variants' performance specs and have not exceeded any expectations. Unlike Boeing and their 777LR. But in no way can you count Airbus out...

Cheers!
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:42 am

There are people who do though, and they are buying 787s.

Only really sort of desperadoes who evidently really want 767 replacements ASAP, are are even willing to risk some money betting that the 787 will be an at-least-suitable (and who knows, hopefully even way better) choice for medium-term future needs. Which of course puts Boeing in an ever more "good news, maybe bad news" position-- good that more folks are materially giving confidence to them, bad news (maybe) is that there's increased pressure on them to actually deliver!

Now of course, if everything actually does go swimmingly with production and final-product performance then no question all of these Hail-Mary guys will end up as heroes, and reaping mucho benefits. They just gotta get there though.
 
Areopagus
Posts: 1335
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:43 am

Quoting YULMRS (Reply 40):
Well, what you say on the 747 Advanced is exactly what was said about the A350 a few months before launching. Making new with old ... The A350 seems to be a failure, so will be the 747 Adv (or 747-500, no matter how you call it) If Boeing wants to compete with the A380 they need an all new aircraft

Well, it doesn't quite work that way, for several reasons, including:

1. The size gap between the 380-800 and the 773/346 is large enough to drive a 747 through.
2. The 388 is overbuilt in anticipation of a stretch, which leaves it heavier than it might have been.
3. The 388 has 49% more floor space for 35% more passengers than the 744, which increases its weight per passenger.
4. The 747A will be using slightly newer engines, whose development is largely paid for by the 787 program.

Thus, the 380's more recent aerodynamics and materials won't be enough improvement to preclude a 747A, which doesn't need to sell as many to be successful.

To be sure, the 787 is also spending some of its structural/aerodynamic advantages on a slightly larger cross section (than 330) and greater cabin pressure.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:52 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 43):
The A380 concept is a pre-911 concept that is probably not too terribly compatible with the post-911 world.

I agree wholeheartedly. In a world where customers have more choice, and airlines are flying longer, nonstop, bypassing traditional hubs, a 500-600 seat airplane just can't find a place in too many markets.

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 43):
I doubt the A380 will be able to break even with production numbers, but it will be a marvelous aircraft technologically

Well, that is the beauty of R&D subsidies. I have no idea whether the A380 will end up being a profitable line for Airbus, and while I have my own opinions about the Airbus subsidies from European governments, there is no point in getting into it here. Either way, Airbus has much less to worry about than Boeing when it comes to any aircraft not breaking even.

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 43):
I believe the concept of the A380 is coming out at the wrong time and that at another time (or if 911 had never happened) the A380 would have been a successful design.

I have to disagree with you there. The trends that are today contributing to the enormous success of the 787 program and the stagnation of the A380 program were evident long before September 11:

Hub Overflying

Many airlines have been overflying LAX and SFO and linking their major hubs with Asian cities (AA from DFW/ORD, CO from IAH/EWR, DL from ATL, etc.) since the mid-1980s and early 1990s.

Airport Expansion

Vastly increased capacity at many major airports is eliminating the need for highly restrictive, high-capacity, low-frequency flying (the new HKG airport, a new runway in NRT and HND, etc.). This is one of the very reasons why both ANA and JAL said they didn't see a need for the A380 at the moment.

Liberalized Bilaterals

Look at what is happening in China. It used to be that two US airlines -- UA and NW -- controlled virtually the entire US-China market. By 2006, AA and CO will probably have about a quarter of the annual market. Open Skies, all over the world (not just in the US), has repeatedly lead to more flights, by more airlines, but with smaller aircraft.
 
ComeAndGo
Posts: 815
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:58 pm

RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:55 am

Airbus is in no crisis. It simply came up with a quick response to the 787 and it came up short. Now, knowing that SIA is not interested in the 787 and some airlines inlcuding SIA are looking for a replacement for the A310, this may be an opportunity for airbus to gain the upper hand. Scrap the 350 project, sit down and study the airline requirements for a true A310 replacement, design it and sell it to the airline industry.

Big deal. Sounds so easy, doesn't it.
 
ComeAndGo
Posts: 815
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:58 pm

RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Tue Apr 26, 2005 7:08 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 16):
the competition is soon recieving aircraft with a cheaper price tag, more comfortable accomodations, lower maintenence and considerably lower fuel costs.

Who says it's going to be cheaper? If you do some research you'll see that Boeing is running into all kinds of difficulties developing the fuselage of the 787. This is brand new stuff. It's not the same old thing with a different smell. All current Boeing product are built with Aluminum sheet. The 787 is plastic. There's no technology knowhow here. The technology comes out of Italy. It's Alenia in Italy that is coming up with the technology and manufacturing processes to built the fuselage barrel. Since when is R&D cheaper than building products with existing knowhow. It's not. Boeing will also have problems delivering the 787 on time. So forget that cheaper 737 alternative that will be here in, say what ? three years ? You're dreaming … BIG TIME

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