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monteycarlos
Posts: 2018
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 5:16 pm

RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Wed Apr 27, 2005 6:37 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 94):
You could say Boing recent failures(losing market share) can be attributed to lack of competitive products, among other Boeing failures. Who else would be to blame besides mangement?

Its very easy within a corporate structure to point your finger at management, however within many industries and this one is no exception there is a very strong political pressure from shareholders, board members and in Boeing's case, much of the North American population to have a competitive edge over its rivals (i.e. Airbus SAS). Managements are accountable for the decisions made in that regard, and as it is their head on the block, they are the ones to go... When really the making or breaking of a project may/may not have anything to do with them or their decisions but the the scope of the market at that period in time.

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 94):
Are you suggesting the Condit era was happy times for Boeing aircraft division?

No. But one person doesn't make a company.

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 94):
And no if you would study up on reading comprehension, I did not say current management was mediocre. BTW, most of this forum is opinion, the fact you disagree is not reason enough to keep it private.

I know this, but when your opinions are so blatantly loaded with anti-airbus propaganda its pretty hard to sit here and read it and not be totally perplexed as to what logic you are basing your opinion on.

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 94):
Thats rich, you are saying these airlines are making multi-billion dollar decisions on nothing?

Now who is giving the lesson on comprehension. Paraphrasing me as saying that airlines make "multi-billion dollar decisions on nothing" is far from what was actually said or meant by the statement.

Simply take this as my meaning, Airbus has released the idea of building an A350 with a bunch of figures and a concept of how they want to enter the market and what they wish to achieve from the aircraft. Nothing more than that. The 787 on the other hand has had its design frozen as well as much of its pre-production evaluation and is from some reports 2 years ahead of the A350. Airlines who want a plane soon are not going to sit there and wait when they want the plane in four or five years.... It does not mean they are throwing a multi-billion dollar decision.

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 94):
They are looking at the specs and projections provided by the manufacturers and doing their own analyis. Airbus has released expected performance numbers for the 350. How could they possibly sell an airplane otherwise?

Honestly if Airbus sell any A350's at the moment they would be extremely impressed considering at the moment it is just a PR machine. And yes, they have released expected performance numbers... But purely targets within the market that they would like to achieve. Actually building the plane so it will achieve them is a different story and one in which Airbus will be starting to delegate more resources to now the A380 is in testing.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
brons2
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Wed Apr 27, 2005 6:56 am

I have one answer to the question posed by this thread.

No.

Airbus has a huge backlog of planes to deliver, one that is larger, even with all the recent 787 orders, than Boeing's is.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
art
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:28 am

Quoting Brons2 (Reply 101):
I have one answer to the question posed by this thread.

No.

Airbus has a huge backlog of planes to deliver, one that is larger, even with all the recent 787 orders, than Boeing's is.

I agree. However, looking forward to 2008/9/10, Boeing's prospects currently look immensely stronger in the medium sized aircraft sector. The money rolls in as the frames roll out and it looks like most of the money in this sector will be rolling towards Seattle.

Looking further forward to 2010-2015, Airbus may be coining it in with the A380. To me this depends a lot on the price of jet fuel. The pendulum may swing towards large aircraft if the oil price REALLY takes off. Personally, I think this is more likely to happen than not.
 
redflyer
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:39 am

Today, Airbus is not in crisis mode. I'm sure after the 1st flight of the 380 they are euphoric. That must be a load off of a lot of people's minds in Toulouse.

However, give it a few weeks after the euphoria diminishes and real-world issues seep back in. They are going to have to deal with the 350 mess in one way or another.

My guess is that with the successful flight of the 380 this morning, their government sponsors will be more inclined to fork over the additional start-up monies necessary to re-design the 350 from scratch. And their attitude will be "To hell with Boeing and to hell with the WTO". Germany's Schroeder was quoted, after being informed of the 380's flight, as saying something to the affect of "This shows you what Europe can do when we work together." I interpret his comments (and the similar ones made at the unveiling in January) as being a total endorsement of ALL of their policies that gave birth to the 380, including direct government subsidies. In short, I think the first flight of the 380 will imbue Airbus with more confidence. They will go back to the drawing board on the 350 and come up with something better; perhaps even better than the 787.

I think Boeing has really leap-frogged Airbus in a lucrative market segment while they were pre-occupied with the 380. They cannot ignore the challenge from Boeing and will use whatever resources at hand to face up to the challenge because they will quickly realize if they don't then it will indeed be a crisis.

Best regards,

R
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
mham001
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:17 am

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 100):
I know this, but when your opinions are so blatantly loaded with anti-airbus propaganda its pretty hard to sit here and read it and not be totally perplexed as to what logic you are basing your opinion on.

Not sure how stating Boeing has been horribly managed for the last decade is anti-airbus. I do believe though that their focus on defense over that period can pay off now with the use of technologies developed on that end. If you look around, Boeing has its hands in a lot of cutting edge stuff over there as well as lots of revenue. Part of that is the rapid-development program. This is part of the reason I think they can have a leg up on Airbus if management doesn't run them into the ground. Like others have more eloquently stated, Airbus will be fine near term, but the future looks quite bright for Boeing 5-10 years out.

Quoting Brons2 (Reply 101):
Its very easy within a corporate structure to point your finger at management, however within many industries and this one is no exception there is a very strong political pressure from shareholders, board members and in Boeing's case, much of the North American population to have a competitive edge over its rivals (i.e. Airbus SAS). Managements are accountable for the decisions made in that regard, and as it is their head on the block, they are the ones to go... When really the making or breaking of a project may/may not have anything to do with them or their decisions but the the scope of the market at that period in time.

Boeing operated in the same climate as Airbus, same market, same times. Boeing blundered in a number of ways and Airbus gained market share largely because of those blunders. It was Boeings to lose and they lost it.
BTW, the North American population at large(outside Seattle, Socal, and Wichita) hardly gives a second thought about Boeing or commercial airliners.
 
mham001
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:22 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 96):
t's unlikely the euro will go down to 0.8 - it's more likely (due to economic fundamentals) it will rise further to 1.5 and 1.7 dollars. At some point Airbus' management made noises that the euro shouldn't be let above 1.1 or so dollars.

Thats not what most analysts I've been reading are currently saying. Most seem to think the euro has peaked.
 
L410Turbolet
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:28 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 104):
Airbus will be fine near term, but the future looks quite bright for Boeing 5-10 years out.

I guess that's why you see the Boeing cheerleaders posting endless and pretty much pointless threads like this one. They need to comfort themselves with something...anything!
 
airfrnt
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:46 am

Quoting A3EDU (Reply 89):
- Timing: 787 deliveries will not begin until 2009 the earliest, right? So, if we are in 2005 cash will not start to flow in until that date.

Incorrect. There are large cash deposits that need to be paid for each plane. Air Canada recently stated (for example) that the amount of money they are going to be paying Boeing is realativly constant between now and the end of the contract.

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 82):
Keep in mind that this is all your own opinion which may or may not be shared by others!

I used the words "I think" in the quote you had.

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 82):
An avalanche starting to build? So you mean that all the world's carriers looking to replace their 200-280 seat aircraft within the next 30 odd years are all going to buy the 787?

No. I mean that Boeing has a pretty free hand with sales over the next give years, which may or may not be when a sizable portion of the 767 fleet is replaced.

I also mean to say that there is a large perception problem that is growing. Remember how no one ever got fired for buying IBM? When the entire market is moving towords one plane, decision makers are automatically going to give it just a little bit more oomph in that particular direction.

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 82):
The A380 may not have sold a lot of just yet, but there certainly IS a market for it

There may be a market for it (the judge is still out on that one) but it certainly is not the market that Airbus projects or the 744 market. The market so far has not sustained the program. Bear in mind that the program was first offered in 1996. The better part of ten years later there have not been enough orders to make up even half of the development cost, to say nothing about the fabled 20% return Airbus claims.

It's one thing to be shopping around a derevitive with a 2 billon dollar price tag and launch without orders. It's quite another thing here.

I would be saying the exact same thing if Boeing has been foolish enough to actually launch the 747X or MD had launched their twin decker. Eventually sometime before the second decade of this bird is over, Airbus may break even on it. But the hype around the plane for any other reason then scale is completly unjustified. The program has yet to make a single eurocent.

For example, look at the recent Airbus attack on AI For ordering the 787. They claim that the entire tender should be redone because AI did not like the larger A350 and didn't even bother looking at the A380. Imagine that!
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:16 pm

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 104):
Not sure how stating Boeing has been horribly managed for the last decade is anti-airbus.

I was referring to other parts of your post (reply 16)

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 104):
Like others have more eloquently stated, Airbus will be fine near term, but the future looks quite bright for Boeing 5-10 years out.


I don't disagree with this... But when you look at long term economics, Airbus is not in a position now which would make them vulnerable in the long term. Having said that, they as a company must continue to achieve the results of the last five or so years so as that they do not put themselves in a position where they will be vulnerable in the long term.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 107):
I used the words "I think" in the quote you had.

My apologies... I have no idea why I posted that.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 107):
There may be a market for it (the judge is still out on that one) but it certainly is not the market that Airbus projects or the 744 market.

Well I think the fact that Airbus has sold 154 (I think it is now?) planes, definitely indicates that there is a market, be it small from what we have seen so far. And who is to say that in the long term that its not going to be a bigger market?

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 107):
Bear in mind that the program was first offered in 1996. The better part of ten years later there have not been enough orders to make up even half of the development cost, to say nothing about the fabled 20% return Airbus claims.

The 747 was exactly quick off the blocks either... These aircraft are a very big financial commitment and I would expect once the plane starts commercial operations more airlines will start considering it. (provided it does so successfully)

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 107):
For example, look at the recent Airbus attack on AI For ordering the 787. They claim that the entire tender should be redone because AI did not like the larger A350 and didn't even bother looking at the A380. Imagine that!

I thought that Airbus only threatened AI because they were taking too long to get back to Airbus on the order and as a result Airbus was holding planes that could be offered to other airlines... I heard nothing about claims that Airbus wanted the tender to be redone.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:21 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 108):
I heard nothing about claims that Airbus wanted the tender to be redone.

Scratch that - I just read this:
Airbus Demanding A Review Of AI Order (by KhenleyDIA Apr 27 2005 in Civil Aviation)
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
NAV20
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:47 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 108):
But when you look at long term economics, Airbus is not in a position now which would make them vulnerable in the long term.

Have to disagree, Montey. I think that is exactly the situation - Airbus has enough orders for its established models to keep production going for a couple of years ahead, and maintain a positive cash flow; but after that it could be stuck with nothing for its plants to do but build A380s at a loss.

There isn't much it can do about it short-term, either. it can't get EU 'launch aid' to pay for developing the A350, and the A350 is completely out-classed by the 787 anyway.

With hindsight, it's easy to see where Airbus went wrong. They did very well at first, identifying Boeing's main sellers and producing something that was better. But that gave them a corporate culture based on 'beat Boeing' - and eventually they set out to do that in the jumbo sector, in which Boeing chose not to compete.

Along the way they seem to have missed the implications of 'ETOPS' - being able to use only two engines, even for wide-bodies and even on longhaul and over-ocean routes - and also seem to have tended to accept fuel consumption 'as is', rather than seeking ways to get greater economy.

IMO that leaves them very vulnerable now. They need new ideas and new models, and they need them quickly - but that involves investing a lot of cash in experimental designs and development, and, quite soon, they are likely to be short of cash due to the A380 programme and the drying-up of orders for their mid-sized types.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
frugalqxnwa
Posts: 550
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:02 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 47):
Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 43):
I believe the concept of the A380 is coming out at the wrong time and that at another time (or if 911 had never happened) the A380 would have been a successful design.

I have to disagree with you there. The trends that are today contributing to the enormous success of the 787 program and the stagnation of the A380 program were evident long before September 11:

While you have a point with route fragmentation before 911, 911 killed the demand for air travel, especially with the US legacies through their major hubs. Traffic is continuing to come back, but people have completely reevaluated what they want from airline travel. The demand for more P2P service has grown tremendousley since 911 because people want to avoid the major hubs because of the hassles and, initially at least, greater fears of terrorism.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:02 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 108):
The 747 was exactly quick off the blocks either...

No, the 747 was blisteringly fast off the blocks, from the initial order from Pan-Am on. The plane at first flight had twice as many orders as it needed to break even.
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:09 pm

NAV20-- I think that is exactly the situation - Airbus has enough orders for its established models to keep production going for a couple of years ahead, and maintain a positive cash flow; but after that it could be stuck with nothing for its plants to do but build A380s at a loss.

There isn't much it can do about it short-term, either. it can't get EU 'launch aid' to pay for developing the A350, and the A350 is completely out-classed by the 787 anyway.

With hindsight, it's easy to see where Airbus went wrong. They did very well at first, identifying Boeing's main sellers and producing something that was better. But that gave them a corporate culture based on 'beat Boeing' - and eventually they set out to do that in the jumbo sector, in which Boeing chose not to compete.

Along the way they seem to have missed the implications of 'ETOPS' - being able to use only two engines, even for wide-bodies and even on longhaul and over-ocean routes - and also seem to have tended to accept fuel consumption 'as is', rather than seeking ways to get greater economy.

IMO that leaves them very vulnerable now. They need new ideas and new models, and they need them quickly - but that involves investing a lot of cash in experimental designs and development, and, quite soon, they are likely to be short of cash due to the A380 programme and the drying-up of orders for their mid-sized types.



Okay NAV20. While I thought you might have reserved at least some of your now-familiar skepticism around here for the 787 Hail Mary that the Boeing folks are currently trying to pull off as well -- because y'know it sure deserves it too, in addition to what Airbus might have done or not done right themselves recently-- it instead appears like you'll actually hardly be that even-handed with it at all  spin 

You want to suppose Airbus will shut down --or be hopelessly outflanked or whatever-- in as little as the next year or two, then why by all means you go on right ahead with that, and even have fun too!


Meantime let's maybe all see what Airbus developments actually happen during that time alongside, okay?  cool 
 
NAV20
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:44 pm

Nice of you to quote my entire post, Mark_D - but not really necessary!  Smile

I think 'realistic' is a better word than 'sceptical'. Especially about the 'lead-time' for new ideas/models.

The 787 is actually the product of about seven years' research by Boeing, starting with the 'Sonic Cruiser'. Therefore they've already done the 'hard bit', developing the new ideas - by comparison, the detailed design/building phases are almost 'easy'.

What's more, Boeing has a clear lead in two areas of 'new technology'.

1. They largely paid for the development of 'bleedless' engines, and are therefore in a position to stop the manufacturers from supplying bleedless engines to Airbus, or sharing the technology with them - so Airbus will have to develop it for themselves, presumably with Snecma or P & W, without help from Rolls-Royce or GE.

2. The aerodynamics of the 787 (and, to an extent, the 777 and the 747ADV) are the products of years of wind-tunnel testing by Boeing. Apart from wing design, they are well ahead on the design of winglets. Again, Airbus will have to mount that 'learning curve' in its own time, and at its own expense.

All those innovations translate directly into fuel economy - which, of course, is priority number one with all airlines at the moment.

So it will likely take Airbus a minimum of five years to catch up with Boeing's technological lead and develop and bring out some competitive models of their own. During which time the 787 and the 777 are likely to outsell their current range by a street.

[Edited 2005-04-28 06:53:41]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
leelaw
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:13 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 112):
The plane at first flight had twice as many orders as it needed to break even.

That statement is historically inaccurate.

Breakeven for the original 741/742 program was based on delivery of 200 aircraft. Cumulative orders for the 747 did not reach 200 aircraft until 1971. First flight of the 747 was 02/09/69. More importantly, cumulative deliveries (which is what really counts in terms of assessing breakeven) of the 741/742 didn't reach 200 aircraft until 1973 when Boeing was in the midst of developing the 747SP. Consequently, the overall 747 program did not achieve profitability (in terms of breakeven) until the late seventies.

The A380 boosters should note that "cash cows" can take a long time to yield any cream.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:45 pm

NAV20-- Nice of you to quote my entire post...

Y'notice though it wasn't quite the entire post there, NAV20. But glad nonetheless if you liked seeing it again, albeit in more compact form to maybe highlight its "woolly filler" aspect a bit more  Smile

The 787 is actually the product of about seven years' research by Boeing, starting with the 'Sonic Cruiser'.

NAV20 if the Sonic Cruiser was the start of it all --and moreover was unveiled March 29 2001 amidst really quite a number of other tumultuous plans floated by company brass

( http://www.findarticles.com/p/articl...m0EIN/is_2001_March_29/ai_72451772 )


it seems more likely the 787 could actually be the product of at most about four years' research, rather than the seven you claim right here instead.


Therefore they've already done the 'hard bit', developing the new ideas - by comparison, the detailed design/building phases are almost 'easy'.


Ah, a little bit of woolly filler here, and spun thick too  spin . NAV20 they don't seem to have done very much yet at all, actually, except cook up a test fuselage mini-section that possibly shows off enough potential airworthiness to allow some airline execs visiting the plant to materially show interest in (though only sparingly firm order, however) the product being pitched. If the bet pays off then they get early dibs on an airliner they could sure use ASAP, especially if Airbus doesn't have much at all to look at in the way of an alternative.


What's more, Boeing has a clear lead in two areas of 'new technology'.
1. They largely paid for the development of 'bleedless' engines,



Is that a fact, NAV20! What, Boeing's in the jet-engine-building-or-developing business themselves, ? Or no, perhaps they subsidised both GE and RR to do it for them instead, maybe? Maybe you could explain what it is they do exactly in this process to have "largely paid for it" so far, or put a dollar figure on it or something like that.



and are therefore in a position to stop the manufacturers from supplying bleedless engines to Airbus, or sharing the technology with them -

Seems like both GE and RR are talking to Airbus about it already, actually. Maybe you want to go tell 'em to stop?!

so Airbus will have to develop it for themselves

Airbus isn't in the jet-engine-building-or-developing business now too, are they?



2. The aerodynamics of the 787 (and, to an extent, the 777 and the 747ADV) are the products of years of wind-tunnel testing by Boeing.


And others, NAV20, and others. Like these guys for instance (even if not that big a deal is made publicly about it  Smile )

http://www.qinetiq.com/home/commerci...e_qinetiq_5_metre_wind_tunnel.html



Okay, so you'll get back to me about some of this stuff then. Before bandying about rash (maybe even wishful) conclusions like this one:

So it will likely take Airbus a minimum of five years to catch up with Boeing's technological lead and develop and bring out some competitive models of their own.


 spin 
 
NAV20
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:46 pm

Mark, with all the goodwill in the world, this business of just quoting my points and then making weak or subjective comments on them doesn't do much in terms of promoting sensible (and entertaining) discussion. However:-

1. This confirms that research into the Sonic Cruiser began in the 1990s. And that the final decision to abandon it was taken some six months after the article you quote, in view of the market collapse after 9/11 (that is, six months or so after the article you quote).

http://www.aviationexplorer.com/787_facts.htm

2. The point about a lot of the 'bleedless' technology being subject to confidentiality agreements comes from a friend of a friend who is in the engine business in the USA. It is based on the fact that much, if not most, of 'bleedless' technology is more to do with the interfaces with, and systems installed in, the aircraft, rather than the design of the actual engines; and these are naturally the property of Boeing. Now that RR and GE are the sole engine options for the 787 Boeing are in a strong position to enforce it. In any case, the fact that Airbus are only proposing 'less bleed', rather than 'bleedless', engines for the A350 amply confirms that Airbus are not in possession of all the pieces of the jigsaw.

In any case, apart from contradicting me, what exactly are you saying? Boeing's timetable for the 787 is first flight 2006, production 2007, delivery 2008.

I said that it will take Airbus a minimum of five years to bring out a competitive alternative (i.e. until 2010).

Do you think they can do it quicker than that? If so, by when?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
monteycarlos
Posts: 2018
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 5:16 pm

RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 9:56 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 110):
Have to disagree, Montey. I think that is exactly the situation

Would I expect anything else considering your Skeptisism towards Airbus?

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 110):
Airbus has enough orders for its established models to keep production going for a couple of years ahead, and maintain a positive cash flow; but after that it could be stuck with nothing for its plants to do but build A380s at a loss.

Well that suggests that the position they are in is good... Your assumption is based on them not selling any (or very few) planes in the long term. If you crawl out from under the rock of biased opinionated journalism you would note that Airbus has sold quite a few aircraft (even this year), enough to suggest that they are still a very competitive company.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 110):
There isn't much it can do about it short-term, either. it can't get EU 'launch aid' to pay for developing the A350, and the A350 is completely out-classed by the 787 anyway.

No, because now that they don't have an "integrated marketing team," they're not going to sell planes right?  Yeah sure What is your predjudice against Airbus?

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 110):
IMO that leaves them very vulnerable now.

And the economics to back up your theory are?

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 110):
They need new ideas and new models, and they need them quickly - but that involves investing a lot of cash in experimental designs and development, and, quite soon, they are likely to be short of cash due to the A380 programme and the drying-up of orders for their mid-sized types.

Oh yeah I forgot that Airbus had a liquidity problem and that their own accounts and many other business analysts just simply hadn't realised yet.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 112):
No, the 747 was blisteringly fast off the blocks, from the initial order from Pan-Am on. The plane at first flight had twice as many orders as it needed to break even.

Are you sure about that? (see the quote below)

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 115):
Breakeven for the original 741/742 program was based on delivery of 200 aircraft. Cumulative orders for the 747 did not reach 200 aircraft until 1971. First flight of the 747 was 02/09/69. More importantly, cumulative deliveries (which is what really counts in terms of assessing breakeven) of the 741/742 didn't reach 200 aircraft until 1973 when Boeing was in the midst of developing the 747SP. Consequently, the overall 747 program did not achieve profitability (in terms of breakeven) until the late seventies.

Thats not to say the A380 will have the same stroke of luck... but its possible it will break even this decade.  tongue 

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 114):
They largely paid for the development of 'bleedless' engines, and are therefore in a position to stop the manufacturers from supplying bleedless engines to Airbus, or sharing the technology with them - so Airbus will have to develop it for themselves, presumably with Snecma or P & W, without help from Rolls-Royce or GE.

Oh, So GE and RR are going to sacrifice their own business to screw Airbus into the ground? I very much doubt that. Rolls-Royce especially considering they won the sole power descision of the A345 and A346 as well as a significant amount of A380 engine options... Why would they bite the hand that feeds them?

Boeing simply went to the engine manufacturers with a concept, and asked the engine manufacturers (probably with some financial incentive) to develop something that they could use for the then 7E7. Its not exclusive use technology by any means!

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 114):
The aerodynamics of the 787 (and, to an extent, the 777 and the 747ADV) are the products of years of wind-tunnel testing by Boeing. Apart from wing design, they are well ahead on the design of winglets. Again, Airbus will have to mount that 'learning curve' in its own time, and at its own expense.

True, but what makes you think they haven't been doing that already? DSTO down in Fisherman's Bend in Melbourne have the technology to do this kind of stuff and do so every day. They aren't in the business of producing aircraft so why would you think that Airbus would not have a team specifically out there to develop new technology in such areas?

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 115):
The A380 boosters should note that "cash cows" can take a long time to yield any cream.

Yeah, which makes the A350 program even more vital in their long term strategy... Especially if it has to carry the A380 line until it gets into the black.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
NAV20
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:13 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 118):
What is your prejudice against Airbus?

That's what tends to bug me about this sort of discussion, Montey. It's sort of like asking why I support Hawthorn and not Collingwood - or why I'm a Christian and not a Muslim - or why I drive a Hyundai and not a Ford 

I prefer to travel in Boeings, for various reasons. That is just my 'consumer preference'. So I'm naturally pleased that my side appears to be kicking more goals than the opposition at the moment.

On the other hand, I like watching the game - if Airbus (or Collingwood!) play so badly that they go broke, there'll be no fun in watching a game with only one team on the park. To that extent, I find myself analysing what Airbus are doing wrong, and half-hoping that they start getting it right (or at least partly right) soon.

The stock exchanges seem to agree with me, anyway. Up to today, Boeing's shares have been climbing, EADS shares have been sliding........

[Edited 2005-04-28 15:45:54]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
lnglive1011yyz
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:37 pm

Did anyone catch the press conference Forgeard (sp?) held after the A380 first flight yesterday?

A reporter asked him what he thought of AI buying Boeing, and instead of deflecting until a later date, he at first went into a little rant about how he thought it was "bullshit" (yes, he actually used bullshit if I heard correctly).

Thankfully he decided after a few moments to stop his rant, and shifted focus back to the A380.

I don't know if they're in crisis mode, but I think they are definitely concerned about the future of the A350.

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:42 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 119):
That's what tends to bug me about this sort of discussion, Montey. It's sort of like asking why I support Hawthorn and not Collingwood

I would never expect a fellow Hawthorn supporter to be so one-eyed, much more than any Collingwood supporter.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 119):
On the other hand, I like watching the game - if Airbus (or Collingwood!) play so badly that they go broke, there'll be no fun in watching a game with only one team on the park. To that extent, I find myself analysing what Airbus are doing wrong, and half-hoping that they start getting it right (or at least partly right) soon.

Well teams work in cycles, when some are up, some are down. What are you going to be saying (If/When) Airbus climbs back up?

I don't like the comparison however. Its unfair because the consequences are much more important for a football team!  Wink

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 119):
The stock exchanges seem to agree with me, anyway. Up to today, Boeing's shares have been climbing, EADS shares have been sliding........

We'll see. Boeing reported a 14% fall in earnings for the first quarter so the shares may not agree with you given this information.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
NAV20
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:06 pm

OK, Montey - since you're a Hawthorn supporter, you just made it to my RU List.

Must confess to a soft spot for St. Kilda as well - but that's only because I live on the Bayside. I'll look out for you at the MCG - presumably you'll be the guy in Hawthorn colours applauding Collingwood all the time!  

EADS shares are faring worse than I thought - just today, they've already slipped from E22.75 to E22.00. A couple of weeks ago they were at E24.00. Boeing's have gone from 57 bucks to 59.60 in the week.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/f..._data/shares/1/15130/one_month.stm

[Edited 2005-04-28 16:10:54]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
leelaw
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 4:15 am

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 118):

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 115):
The A380 boosters should note that "cash cows" can take a long time to yield any cream.

Yeah, which makes the A350 program even more vital in their long term strategy... Especially if it has to carry the A380 line until it gets into the black.

I'm not sure I follow Montey's logic here? The A380 will be a source of cash flow years before the first A350 is delivered.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
WAH64D
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:15 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 119):
I prefer to travel in Boeings, for various reasons. That is just my 'consumer preference'. So I'm naturally pleased that my side appears to be kicking more goals than the opposition at the moment.

I fail to see your logic as to why Boeing are supposedly kicking more goals than Airbus recently. The first flight of the A380 is the greatest landmark in civil aviation in the past 25 years.

Boeing have done what? A "paper" aeroplane in the form of the 787. The one and only fuselage section they've built doesn't constitute a massive achievement. So Airbus are the losing side when they have more orders than they can handle, production is having to be ramped up to an all time high and its pretty certain that a raft of new orders will be announced at the Paris Air Show.

I think you're seeing things through "stars and stipes" tinted glasses!
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:18 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 122):
Must confess to a soft spot for St. Kilda as well - but that's only because I live on the Bayside. I'll look out for you at the MCG - presumably you'll be the guy in Hawthorn colours applauding Collingwood all the time!

You're from Bayside as well? Whats going on here, are you stalking me?  tongue 

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 123):
I'm not sure I follow Montey's logic here? The A380 will be a source of cash flow years before the first A350 is delivered.

I meant that Airbus is going to need a plane to sell in case the A380 takes a little while to get off the blocks. The A230 line, IMO, is not going to be able to carry the A380 until it gets into the black.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
leelaw
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:23 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 124):
The first flight of the A380 is the greatest landmark in civil aviation in the past 25 years.

What happened circa 1980?
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frugalqxnwa
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:30 am

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 125):
meant that Airbus is going to need a plane to sell in case the A380 takes a little while to get off the blocks. The A230 line, IMO, is not going to be able to carry the A380 until it gets into the black.

If the A380 gets into the black. I have my serious doubts about a 500-600 seat aircraft in the post-911 world. There are airlines that need that kind of capacity (Emerates and Singapore to name some), but the demand for this size of aircraft is currently not enough worldwide in my estimation to support even one manufacturer in that size class. The route structures of the airlines are fragmenting for the vast majority of airlines, and only the few true hub and spoke airlines with multiple hubs would need this size of aircraft.

Before 911 there were more airlines that could have used the A380, arguably some of the US legaciesamong them, but the acceleration of route fragmentation after 911 has, unfortunately for Airbus, rendered the A380 concept unviable for now. There may come a time in the future when airliners or sub-orbital passenger craft need to carry 500-1000 passengers each, but not in time for the A380.

Do not get me wrong, I congratulate Airbus on the successful first flight of the A380 and believe the A380 to be an extroardinary aircraft technically, and I believe that the A380 would be successful if market conditions supported the 500+ market segment more firmly than they do now. I merely believe the A380 to be the wrong idea at the wrong time.
 
WAH64D
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:32 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 126):
Quoting WAH64D (Reply 124):
The first flight of the A380 is the greatest landmark in civil aviation in the past 25 years.


What happened circa 1980?

In 1977, Concorde started flying from London and Paris to JFK.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
grantcv
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 127):
Before 911 there were more airlines that could have used the A380, arguably some of the US legaciesamong them, but the acceleration of route fragmentation after 911 has, unfortunately for Airbus, rendered the A380 concept unviable for now. There may come a time in the future when airliners or sub-orbital passenger craft need to carry 500-1000 passengers each, but not in time for the A380.

It doesn't seem to me that US legacies would ever have been interested in the A380. Aside from Northwest and United, the 747 has been gone from the US legacy carriers for years. The target for the A380 are the flag carriers interested in the prestige that the plane offers. They are more willing to adjust their route frequencies to make the plane workable than US legacies are able to. The A380 will be a success for the prestige it offers. As a former Boeing employee myself, I think it is sad that Boeing can not offer that anymore.

And I don't really see how 9/11 changes anything. Sure 9/11, SARS, and the war in Iraq have caused a traffic slump, but that traffic has now rebounded back to 2001 levels and is growing. International airlines are adding flights and buying planes once more. 9/11 maybe made getting through security more difficult, but I think it is a stretch to say it caused route fragmentation.
 
frugalqxnwa
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:54 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 129):
It doesn't seem to me that US legacies would ever have been interested in the A380. Aside from Northwest and United, the 747 has been gone from the US legacy carriers for years. The target for the A380 are the flag carriers interested in the prestige that the plane offers. They are more willing to adjust their route frequencies to make the plane workable than US legacies are able to. The A380 will be a success for the prestige it offers. As a former Boeing employee myself, I think it is sad that Boeing can not offer that anymore.

When the A3XX concept was first proposed to airlines in the early/mid-'90s, the US legacies were still healthy and growing, and there were still many more 747 operators in the US. Airlines all over then relied primarily on their hubs and needed very large aircraft (DC-10 and larger) to accommodate the traffic. The world has changed, and prestige or not the A380 is still a symbol of the old order of airlines

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 129):
And I don't really see how 9/11 changes anything. Sure 9/11, SARS, and the war in Iraq have caused a traffic slump, but that traffic has now rebounded back to 2001 levels and is growing. International airlines are adding flights and buying planes once more. 9/11 maybe made getting through security more difficult, but I think it is a stretch to say it caused route fragmentation.

911 itself did not cause fragmentation, it accelerated fragmentation, especially in the US. American flyers at least are wanting more direct flights with higher frequencies to avoid the major hubs, their hassles, and their perceived security risks. While I personally believe hubs and very large aircraft to be generally safe, there is still some apprehension about flying in the twin-aisle aircraft.
 
grantcv
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:12 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 130):
When the A3XX concept was first proposed to airlines in the early/mid-'90s, the US legacies were still healthy and growing, and there were still many more 747 operators in the US. Airlines all over then relied primarily on their hubs and needed very large aircraft (DC-10 and larger) to accommodate the traffic. The world has changed, and prestige or not the A380 is still a symbol of the old order of airlines

No, that is not right, in the early '90s the US legacies were in trouble and struggling - just as they were a decade earlier and a decade before that. Back in the early 90's they blamed their problems on the Gulf War. The only other major 747 operators back then that I can think of were Pan Am and TWA and both were in their terminal slides already. Quite frankly, US airlines have never been big 747 operators. Airlines like Eastern, Delta, Braniff, and American all got rid of their planes a long time ago. And they wouldn't have been interested in something bigger ever.

I think it is rather premature to refer to the airlines that have ordered the A380 as being the old order. I don't think that Emirates, Air France, Lufthansa, Singapore, Virgin Atlantic, Qatar, etc. as being part of the old order at all. Let's not confuse the cyclical struggles of the US market with what is going on in the rest of the world. The US carriers are struggling because they failed to adapt to the changing domestic market, much less because the international market changed.
 
leelaw
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 131):
Airlines like Eastern, Delta, Braniff, and American all got rid of their planes a long time ago.

Don't forget the pre-Lorenzo Continental as well. The 741 was projected to dominate the North American Transcon and Midcon markets in the Seventies and Eighties based on the market forecasts of the Sixties.

In fact, UA, AA, & CO each had multiple ORD/LAX 741 frequencies by late 1970. Didn't last very long (less than 2 years).

So much for market forecasts.
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Mark_D.
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 9:57 am

NAV20-- Mark, with all the goodwill in the world, this business of just quoting my points and then making weak or subjective comments on them


NAV20, that's actually not what was going on there though! Why instead it's merely an honest attempt to hopefully further see what you're getting at, that's all!

doesn't do much in terms of promoting sensible (and entertaining) discussion.

Notwithstanding its possibly-lower general entertainment value  spin  Some necessary everyday chores just may not be so much fun-- what can ya do, it's just how it goes sometimes!


However:-
1. This confirms that research into the Sonic Cruiser began in the 1990s.


NAV20 I like aviationexplorer.com, I think it's a fine site and all, but one of their contributors' just saying in a desultory way that "in the late 1990s, Boeing began to consider [767] replacement aircraft" does not actually confirm that Sonic Cruiser research began during that time! Okay, let's give the writer the benefit of the doubt and suppose that Boeing folks had a few boardroom discussions and barbecue working get-togethers here and there, but that's just not all that much. Especially when they did officially announce the project in March 29 2001 it seemed like all they had even at that time was just a bunch of concept drawings and maybe a few material engineering and preliminary wind-tunnel datasets here or there and not much more than that.

So y'know, let's maybe say that early 2001 was in fact a more realistic start date for when Boeing first floated the Sonic Cruiser concepts to potential customers. But who really knows for sure --or for that matter even much cares-- anyway? Sonic Cruiser is gone now -- maybe let it rest in peace!

And that the final decision to abandon it was taken some six months after the article you quote, in view of the market collapse after 9/11 (that is, six months or so after the article you quote).

Again there's no way to know that, at least not around here anyway. Officially the project was shelved nearly two years after the article I quoted there:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/100543_sonic19.shtml

So who knows, NAV20. Who really knows for sure?! so maybe best just let it go then  Smile

2. The point about a lot of the 'bleedless' technology being subject to confidentiality agreements comes from a friend of a friend who is in the engine business in the USA.

If Both GE and (even more obviously) RR are evidently talking to Airbus respectively about GENX and Trent 1000 ports to a potential A350, then notwithstanding what your friend may have told you it seems that at least some of the development work done is already likely common knowledge, at least over at Airbus anyway. Then there're other outfits, it's not like all this somehow dropped from outer space exclusively into GE's (or RR's, or Boeing's) lap(s) y'know :

http://www.flug-revue.rotor.com/frheft/FRHeft04/FRH0401/FR0401d.htm



It is based on the fact that much, if not most, of 'bleedless' technology is more to do with the interfaces with, and systems installed in, the aircraft, rather than the design of the actual engines; and these are naturally the property of Boeing.


NAV20 it was you who mentioned the phrase "bleedless engines" in your post above. Not "bleedless engine technology" or "bleedless engine systems" or something like that but simply "bleedless engines", period. I looked at that and thought "hey, maybe he means the aircraft systems instead, not anything related to the engines specifically since after all he's talking about Boeing and all. But no, lemme give him the benefit of the doubt and at least ask him about the engines, just for starters". So that's what did!

And now you start talking about the aircraft systems side. we're clearly making progress! (and your friend if he's in the engine business may therefore know only peripherally about Boeing's understandable confidentiality safeguards for its "aircraft-side" bleedless stuff, so therefore a might not know a lot about it since he doesn't work there himself, or not even at any of the subcontractor companies involved either)

Now that RR and GE are the sole engine options for the 787 Boeing are in a strong position to enforce it.


No they're not -- who else are they going to go with instead, if and actually when their aircraft-side bleedless systems work starts tricking out to Airbus and whoever else Planetwide. Especially if RR and GE have evidently already been talking to Airbus guys about porting the engines over to a potential A350 down the road.

In any case, the fact that Airbus are only proposing 'less bleed', rather than 'bleedless', engines for the A350 amply confirms that Airbus are not in possession of all the pieces of the jigsaw.

No it doesn't! Certainly not amply, and probably not even 'confirms' either! Mind you, granted Airbus for whatever reason does appear wimpy on this nonetheless -- I mean porting over bleedless engines to a non-bleedless aircraft seems kinda a dopey thing to do especially in a supposedly-new airplane -- and hopefully they'll soon drop that silliness and pitch something more sensible instead. Who knows, maybe in fact Airbus is skittish about trying a bleedless design for whatever reason, and maybe in fact they aren't "in possession of all the pieces of the jigsaw". And in which case -- just like that Flug Revue article a linked to above sort of suggests -- it's time they got on with at least trying what will soon be inevitable anyway, especially if Boeing folks themselves are.

But again, having said that it's not at all a given that Boeing will succeed either. Buiding a bleedless midsize jetliner is tough. It's not at all clear that Boeing knows how to do it yet either (though sporting of them of course to give it the ol' college try and not roll over when their backs would otherwise be up a wall in the global marketplace). So -- just like with building a composite fuselage skin and integrated stringer cage -- we'll just have to wait and see how they do with that and the next twelve to fifteen months especially will be telling.

In any case, apart from contradicting me, what exactly are you saying?


NAV20, you haven't noticed? Why, just getting a clearer sense of what exactly you're saying yourself is all.


Boeing's timetable for the 787 is first flight 2006, production 2007, delivery 2008.


Depends who you talk with and especially how long ago that all was. C'mon, they're apparently not even going to have the first prototype fuselage skin sections ready anytime before Q2 2006 at the earliest since the jumbo Vought/Alenia autoclave in North Charleston SC isn't even supposed to be ready until late Q1 2006 itself. So most folks nowadays seem to be saying that 2007 is when they first flight's supposed to happen, and they're still sticking to a 2008 service entry for now (though frankly it seems to me real optimistic to think those Chinese airline guys will get theirs in time for the Beijing Olympics as was first expected)


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/b7e7.htm

I said that it will take Airbus a minimum of five years to bring out a competitive alternative (i.e. until 2010).

You said that "it will likely take Airbus a minimum of five years to catch up with Boeing's technological lead and develop and bring out some competitive models of their own".

Now that's a lot of milestones to apply that five-year timeframe to. If you want the first one to apply --namely "Airbus catching up to Boeing's technological lead"-- and if Boeing does actually come up with a 787 entering service in '08 then it would seem an Airbus alternative to it would be ready only by 2013 at the earliest.

On the other hand if you want your five-year minimum to start counting down from right now and also apply to and include the last part of your statement -- "Airbus bringing out some competitive models of their own"-- then yeah in that case we get a service entry of 2010 or so for their A350 or whatever the heck they want to call it.

So maybe you want to be more specific as to which particular scenario you had more in mind here.


Do you think they can do it quicker than that? If so, by when?


Assuming we're talking about their bringing out a fully-bleedless midsize long-range jetliner here, naw there's no way I can see them doing that before 2010 at the earliest. It's a lot of work! Lots for them to do and test out, since like Boeing they've never done this before on anything near this scale.
 
NAV20
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RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 11:22 am

Mark-D, the concluding paragraph of my original post said:-

"So it will likely take Airbus a minimum of five years to catch up with Boeing's technological lead and develop and bring out some competitive models of their own. During which time the 787 and the 777 are likely to outsell their current range by a street.

You seem finally to have worked your way round to the point where you agree with the first sentence. Do you also agree with the second sentence (which follows logically)?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
monteycarlos
Posts: 2018
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 5:16 pm

RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Sat Apr 30, 2005 10:28 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 127):
If the A380 gets into the black. I have my serious doubts about a 500-600 seat aircraft in the post-911 world. There are airlines that need that kind of capacity (Emerates and Singapore to name some), but the demand for this size of aircraft is currently not enough worldwide in my estimation to support even one manufacturer in that size class. The route structures of the airlines are fragmenting for the vast majority of airlines, and only the few true hub and spoke airlines with multiple hubs would need this size of aircraft.

Yeah of course... my assumption is that it will get into the black. When all is said and done it should break even but thats a long way off yet.

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 129):
It doesn't seem to me that US legacies would ever have been interested in the A380.

Yeah, probably because they can't afford to but also that it really doesn't suit many of their operations. And buying few of them for the couple of routes that it would be useful would just be wasting valuable dollars.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
ComeAndGo
Posts: 815
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:58 pm

RE: Is Airbus In Crisis Mode?

Sat Apr 30, 2005 7:59 pm

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 133):
1. This confirms that research into the Sonic Cruiser began in the 1990s.

The sonic-cruiser studies started in earnest when boeing hired the Tupolev 144 to make subsonic tests. I don't remember the correct year but am sure someone here does.

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