Now with US & HP announcing their merger, do you think WN will hit the CLT market, and start building like they are doing in PHL?

Well, they took Philadelphia, and now Pittsburgh...wouldn't surprise me if they decided to look at Charlotte. They already have Raleigh, but then again, I dont think that would stop them, as they have other rather close destinations in the same state (like PHL and PIT, or PHX and TUS)

Quoting SW733 (Reply 1): they took Philadelphia

That is a BIG overstatement! They came in and added a few flights here and there, nothing to special!


Regards - Kahala777

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 2): Quoting SW733 (Reply 1): they took Philadelphia That is a BIG overstatement! They came in and added a few flights here and there, nothing to special!

Show me another carrier that went into a city and added 50 flights to 15+ destinations in under a year....plus drop fares 50%....seems like "Taking" PHL to me...

Now PIT...thats another story

DC

I think WN to CLT is long overdue. I have it on very high authority from someone within WN that would definitely know what they were talking about that WN has been looking at CLT for a long time and is still very closely monitoring the market there. I think CLT represents the quintessential WN market: high O&D market with suppressed demand because of high hub fares, relatively low congestion, modern and expandable facilities, etc. I would be willing to bet that within five years we'll be seeing 'Canyon Blue' landing in CLT.

WN will be in CLT as soon as there are gates for them. That could come via US/HP downsizing or expansion, but expansion seems unlikely. CLT is not going to build an addition just for WN, and there is no other need for mainline gates.

SWA is a predator and will move on to weaker prey. They will give up their fight to control PHL. They will co-exist there just as they do at PHX and LAS with AWA. They should be able to acquire a few more gates at PHL, as the merger will dispose of about 60 a/c. The big problem with PHL is that if they get into fare wars with US Airways, it will only further draw down BWI, which is already hurting per GK.

I feel their next move could be into ATL. DL is extremely weak at this point, and there aren't any merger partners that are synergistic. DL will probably need to go into BK to divest themselves of debt, downsize, and thus become a more favorable target for investment bankers. This should take 2 or 3 years, thus giving SWA a chance to establish themselves in ATL.

Quoting SWACLE (Reply 3): Show me another carrier that went into a city and added 50 flights to 15+ destinations in under a year

15 destinations from PHL is hardly "taking" the city.

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 6): I feel their next move could be into ATL. DL is extremely weak at this point, and there aren't any merger partners that are synergistic. DL will probably need to go into BK to divest themselves of debt, downsize, and thus become a more favorable target for investment bankers. This should take 2 or 3 years, thus giving SWA a chance to establish themselves in ATL.

I don't think WN likes the operating conditions in ATL.

Not to mention there is already an established LCC there that offers quite a bit of capacity (AirTran).

A potential market for WN could be CVG though. There are gates there in Terminal A at least, and there should be enough of a market to capitalize on, without impacting SDF or IND too much.

Jeff

ATL is basically at capacity, so WN wouldn't have much room or like the delay's.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7): 15 destinations from PHL is hardly "taking" the city

It made a big impact on the yields to more more than 15 destinations.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 9): A potential market for WN could be CVG though.

I totally agree, CVG needs some relief from DL and the Barbie Jets.

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 10): I totally agree, CVG needs some relief from DL and the Barbie Jets.

barbie jets?????????

you people don't know WN very well.

WN goes where we get the best deal. PHL gave us a great deal so we took it.
And no, there is no other airline in the world that could start up 50 flights in less than a year.

We will not be going to ATL. CLT is way too expensive. They'll surprise us as usual with the next announcement.

As I was taxiing out in PHL the other day it was fun to look at all the USAIR gates and think one day it will all be ours.  

Quoting Seven3Seven (Reply 12): CLT is way too expensive

So Herb's just hanging out (and enjoying himself quite a bit, if rumors are true) with Pat McCrory for the hell of it?

"CLT is way too expensive."

Where have you been? It's one of the cheapest airports in the country for alrlines fees. I think it equals out to $1.50 per passenger to use CLT. PIT was or still is close to $10.00 per passenger. It's one of the main factors why US downsized PIT over CLT.

If CLT can find 2 or 4 gates together... which isn't looking to good now, Southwest will be there to take them.

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 10): It made a big impact on the yields to more more than 15 destinations.

But WN didn't capture more than 50% of the traffic in and out of PHL. That would be "taking" the city.

Quoting Seven3Seven (Reply 12): And no, there is no other airline in the world that could start up 50 flights in less than a year.

In the world?  

Again. You're stretching things. Most airlines can do that. 50 flights is no amazing feat of aviation especially when the majority of them are short hops. That's just utilization.

Quoting Seven3Seven (Reply 12): And no, there is no other airline in the world that could start up 50 flights in less than a year

I may be mistaken about the numbers but didn't NW do just that at IND?

50 flights is a good start for PHL. What did they start at with BWI?
They definitely took BWI-> nobody's even questiong that.

Chris

Quoting RyeFly (Reply 14): If CLT can find 2 or 4 gates together... which isn't looking to good now, Southwest will be there to take them.

If CLT really wanted WN they'd build the dang gates. Don't forget US is one of the largest employers in NC (esp. the CLT area). CLT has a vested interest in seeing US proliferate.

KcrwFlyer- Barbie Jets aka CRJs

Herb was here in Charlotte a couple weeks ago at a mayors banquet (was all over the news) and said Charlotte was on the radar, but the gate situation is iffy, and from the news reports about the merger I saw, the city is optomistic. Also with AirTran and Independence both having started fairly recently here the LCC market already has contenders.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 8): I don't think WN likes the operating conditions in ATL.

True...and no gate space. ATL might come up, but right now CVG has more of a chance as far as DL hubs go.

Just looking at WNs route map and I could see a market from CLT. BNA, BWI, MCO, FLL, RDU, BHM, HOU, MDW. LAS, PHX are all good cities to fly to (LAS AND PHX just to piss HP/US off!)

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 6): I feel their next move could be into ATL. DL is extremely weak at this point, and there aren't any merger partners that are synergistic. DL will probably need to go into BK to divest themselves of debt, downsize, and thus become a more favorable target for investment bankers. This should take 2 or 3 years, thus giving SWA a chance to establish themselves in ATL.

Quoting FLAIRPORT (Reply 20): True...and no gate space. ATL might come up, but right now CVG has more of a chance as far as DL hubs go.

If WN wanted to hurt DL, wouldn't they have already beefed up flights out of DL's western hub, SLC?

Should FL (which recently started service in CLT) start to expand their presence and services there; WN will, at least, take notice and, at most, move in.

It's no accident that WN announced that it would start service at PHL 2 months after it was reported that FL experienced the largest percentage growth at PHL. It's no accident that WN broke its long silence regarding W/S A after FL started growing at DFW. And again, it was no accident that WN at the 11th hour outbid FL for TZ's assets at MDW.

See the pattern here?

Quoting BNAflyer78 (Reply 21): If WN wanted to hurt DL, wouldn't they have already beefed up flights out of DL's western hub, SLC?

SLC/CVG are mostly regional hubs with lots of RJ feed. WN could not hurt them that much in those cities. WN is due to add a new city this fall and it's rumored to be in the South. If the merger goes thru, CLT/PHL will be too strong for WN to dominate. There is room in ATL for WN right now. I'm sure the city could come up with 5 common use gates at the drop of a hat.

DL needs to make themselves more attractive to investment bankers for any future consolidation. IMO, they will follow the same path as U and go to BK by year end. Once in BK, consolidation discussions will procede with DL's route structure being downsized to be compatible will any future suitors. This is the future blueprint for reducing capacity in this bloated industry.

Quoting Seven3Seven (Reply 12): And no, there is no other airline in the world that could start up 50 flights in less than a year.

Independence Air? DH started 350 flights/day out of IAD last summer -- granted, they already had the planes and the terminal. N200WN mentioned NW at IND, and NW also rapidly grew its focus city at MKE recently.

Quoting Bossan (Reply 24): Independence Air? DH started 350 flights/day out of IAD last summer -- granted, they already had the planes

Plus the fact that most if not all of their CRJ routes were ex-UAX (ACA) routes and, hence, not new routes.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 15): But WN didn't capture more than 50% of the traffic in and out of PHL. That would be "taking" the city.

True, WN hasn't took the city, but they have hurt the yields for US dramatically.

Quoting N200WN (Reply 16): I may be mistaken about the numbers but didn't NW do just that at IND?

Yep.

October 31, 2004 – Daily nonstop service to Boston, New York City, Washington D.C., Hartford, Philadelphia, Raleigh/Durham, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Orlando and Fort Myers began.
December 15, 2004 – Daily nonstop service to Fort Lauderdale and Tampa began.
February 16, 2005 – Daily nonstop service to Phoenix, Dallas and Kansas City began—plus additional nonstop service to Fort Myers, Tampa and Las Vegas.
February 19, 2005 - Seasonal weekend nonstop service to Miami, Sarasota and West Palm Beach began.
February 19, 2005 – Saturday-only nonstop service to Cancun began.
June 9, 2005 - Daily nonstop service to Denver, St. Louis, Austin, and seasonal daily nonstop service to Seattle begins--plus additional nonstop service to Kansas City. For a total of 52 daily departures to 22 destinations.

Quoting BNAflyer78 (Reply 21): If WN wanted to hurt DL, wouldn't they have already beefed up flights out of DL's western hub, SLC?

I imagine SLC is full of DL loyals, and also DL benefits from connecting traffic. I also think SLC has higher than average landing fees, which doesn't help any.

WN Service into SLC:

39 daily nonstop departures to 14 cities:
Albuquerque, Baltimore/Washington, Boise, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Reno/Tahoe, St. Louis, Seattle/Tacoma, and Spokane.

Additional direct or connecting service to 43 cities.

WN also has nonstop service from SLC to MDW.

Alright we all know there are very few gates to go around at CLT so unless something unexpected happens then i doubt WN will be coming to CLT even as much as they might want to. That is unless they have no problem using a gate or 2 that may be available during certain times of the day.

WN might not have "taken" PHL but 50 flts in a year is pretty impressive. Also now that America West will most likely move to US gates in PHL, that allows for a bit a gate shake up which will most likely give WN another 3 gates in Terminal E for a total of 7 gates. This will allow for even more expansion.

I often wondered that. I figure they would have sooner later jumped on CLT, but I am not sure if this merger will change that plan or not (assuming such a plan existed).

It's only a matter of time...  

WN is definitely predatory. I remember a time when AA got into hot water with the government for being too predatory. But I guess in the name of low fares, WN is exempt to any predatory regulations.

WN definitely goes where they get the good deals. BWI lured them in with 50% off gate and landing fees. Did they offer US the same bargain? I think not. So Stephen Wolfe stepped in and made BWI match the offer with US or threatened to pull out every flight but keep the gates -- empty. So they did.

As far as CLT goes -- it does not have the O&D traffic that WN needs and cannot pull from major pop. areas around it (it has none. And they already serve RDU). All I have to do is check the manifest everytime I fly into CLT. It usually looks something like this: "Connecting passengers = 86, Local Passengers = 8"

Quoting DCAflyboy (Reply 31): As far as CLT goes -- it does not have the O&D traffic that WN needs and cannot pull from major pop. areas around it (it has none. And they already serve RDU). All I have to do is check the manifest everytime I fly into CLT. It usually looks something like this: "Connecting passengers = 86, Local Passengers = 8"

If CLT had the same low fares that RDU has, then the O&D traffic would far surpass that of RDU. Just some simple economics.

CLT has never supported US Airways. They (media, city/airport) have always had the attitude that if US failed, the hub would easily be replaced by another airline. This is laughable! CLT is a hub airport, with not much local traffic. There is no other airline that would step in and make CLT a hub. CLT would still be a sleepy, little southern town if it were not for Peidmont and later US Air.

Quoting DCAflyboy (Reply 33): CLT would still be a sleepy, little southern town if it were not for Peidmont and later US Air.

What about the banking industry?

Are you saying Charlotte and the surrounding area owes it's preeminent status as one of America's fastest growing cities and metropolitan areas just because of the airport and it's tenants?
While airports do fuel economic prosperity, it is not the only factor.

Quoting Cltguy (Reply 32): If CLT had the same low fares that RDU has, then the O&D traffic would far surpass that of RDU. Just some simple economics.

Hopefully under the new pricing structure of America West, this will soon change.
The merger of HP and US is a blessing for CLT. Otherwise, they became a looming target in the sights of Southwest.

Now?

The New entity (HP/US) must do everything within their power to make CLT as unattractive to Southwest as they possibly can.

Any open gates? They need to snatch them up right now.

Top City-Pairs? Those that include Southwest destinations, they better make damn well sure they have pricing superiority to every city Southwest serves, even though they might not directly compete head-to-head.
Example:
Where would Southwest "LIKELY" enter Charlotte from? (These are just guesses of mine to illustrate the point:

PHL
BWI
HOU
BNA
MDW
PHX
STL
LAX

The fares offered to these airports, better be competitive with ANY FARE, available from ANY AIRPORT within 2-3 hours of CLT.

Frequency. Southwest wins friends and influences enemies by volume.

The new US needs to slice any wiggle room from Charlotte.
Accept the fact they will have to share their major hubs in PHX and PHL with Southwest, and ride the wave of increased traffic a healthy competitive environment breeds.

But under no circumstances should they concede even an inch to Southwest

Go against airTran like it's the anti-Christ. Whatever they do, do it better.

I pin the future of the New US largely on what happens in Charlotte.
It may not be the large megalopolis that PHL is now, but someday very soon, as the population shifts, Charlotte (and NC) will be the epicenter of the Eastern Seaboard's population.

By the way, I am an ardent supporter of Southwest Airlines, but like in Boxing, if a guy is going to go the distance, you'd at least like to see a fair fight of it. All we get now, is round after round after round of US getting it's ass kicked.

Make it a fair fight, and may the best man win!

edit: spelling error

[Edited 2005-05-22 23:53:06]

Quoting DCAflyboy (Reply 33): CLT has never supported US Airways. They (media, city/airport) have always had the attitude that if US failed, the hub would easily be replaced by another airline. This is laughable! CLT is a hub airport, with not much local traffic. There is no other airline that would step in and make CLT a hub. CLT would still be a sleepy, little southern town if it were not for Peidmont and later US Air.

- From Day 1 CLT has been trying to get US to relocate their HQ here.
- If your opinion is correct that CLT has never supported US then please explain why in the past 6 years 35 gates have been added at the airport ALL for US. Also please explain why US has chosen to make CLT its largest hub.
- Local traffic at CLT has picked up considerably this year as the airfares have started to fall. They just opened a 3000 space parking deck and are constructing another 3000 space parking deck.

USAirways will be under completely NEW management soon and what are their plans for CLT? To expand it even further. Gosh for a city and airport that doesnt show US any respect they sure do like us.

Quoting Cltguy (Reply 35): If your opinion is correct that CLT has never supported US then please explain why in the past 6 years 35 gates have been added at the airport ALL for US. Also please explain why US has chosen to make CLT its largest hub. - Local traffic at CLT has picked up considerably this year as the airfares have started to fall. They just opened a 3000 space parking deck and are constructing another 3000 space parking deck.

I am not trying to hijack this thread, however I need to add something.

CLTGUY, I think it's a LOVE-HATE relationship.
Yes, CLT is growing like a weed, and yes all this stuff going up is for US, but again, the O&D numbers don't lie, the beneficiaries of these capital improvements are the millions of folks that connect annually through CLT.

The O&D is improving, hence the new garage, but it could be a lot better under a more judicious fare pricing structure.

If the people of CLT feel their fares are too high, then tough. US is only capitalizing on the marketplace, just like any company in any industry would do.

Why can US charge the fares they do in CLT? Simple, because they can. Just like a landlord can charge $1,100 for a studio apartment in Washington DC, while the same apartment rents for $400 in Baltimore. It's all about taking advantage of the marketplace.

Geesh! Why is it that every industry in this country is allowed to take advantage of a free marketplace and make a profit, except the airlines!! The airlines have become a utility -- something people supposedly have a right to -- like electricity. Well, guess what? We are for-profit and not everyone deserves to fly. My parents had to cram us kids in the station wagon to go across country. Heaven forbid families have to do that today. Either pay what your market charges or shut up and move.

Quoting DCAflyboy (Reply 37): Either pay what your market charges or shut up and move.

You can't have it both ways. You can't have a community with the 2nd highest airfares in country and then expect their O&D to be good. Do you think that McDonalds would sell as many hamburgers if they charged $15? Well obviously you do.

CLT has responded to airlines that charge good fares...just look at Independence....we are their first non-cross country or non-florida market to recieve Airbus service.

There is plenty of O&D to be had in Charlotte is someone is willing to charge a fair price.

"Do you think that McDonalds would sell as many hamburgers if they charged $15? Well obviously you do."

Well, yes. If people would buy them at $15, then yes, of course McDonalds would sell them for $15.

If a LCC came into the CLT market, then US would be forced to match those fares in those markets. But until then, we will try and make a profit by taking advantage of the marketplace. Is this that difficult to understand? Since when it is a crime for US to try and make money? It's not our fault that LCCs aren't breaking down CLT's door to add service.

B.T.W. US Air and Piedmont had a much bigger presence in CLT before the banking industry took off. When was the last time you heard of a company relocating to a city because WN was the main carrier. WN is great for Grandma Myrtle and Uncle Fred, but not necessarily so great for Bank of America when they have to impress a business client.

Quoting Cltguy (Reply 32):
If CLT had the same low fares that RDU has, then the O&D traffic would far surpass that of RDU. Just some simple economics.

WOW.. somebody just put out a load of something in here..

CLT traffic would no way in hell far surpass RDU. They would be about the same.. CLT may have a few thousand more travelers.. but it would only be a couple more thousand.. like 2..

CLT is not the NY/LAX area that you think it is. Right now, RDU is looking at having about 10MIL travelers this year. And how many do you think CLT would have if it weren't a hub? Ohh.. probably 10.05 Mil..

So shut this stupid "stuff" up about CLT being the mecca over RDU.. if it were city-vs-city.. airport-vs-airport.. it would be a tie. and that's the truth..

CLT has no more or no less to offer than RDU does..

[Edited 2005-05-23 03:48:40]

All right, let's have a look at some markets. All numbers are daily O&D from faremeasure.


BWI:
-CLT: 187
-RDU: 591

BNA:
-CLT: 142
-RDU: 440

Care to offer an explantion besides WN, ERJ170? Those are pretty profound differences.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 41): Care to offer an explantion besides WN, ERJ170? Those are pretty profound differences.

Those numbers are generally a reflection of today's fare environment. The CLT metropolitan area is significantly larger than the RDU metropolitan area (anywhere from one quarter to two thirds larger depending on the numbers you use), and the reason it's O&D numbers in the markets you cited (and presumably others) are lower than RDU is because CLT's fares are higher than RDU's on average. This is due primarily to the fact that CLT is domianted by a single legacy airline hub, while RDU faces more dynamic competition from many airlines without a single dominant force and, most importantly, as ERJ170 says, RDU has WN -- which makes all the difference in the world when it comes to a market's fare and O&D environment. The airline industry is a study in supply and demand. When a new airline (read: WN) comes in and increases capacity and dramatically lowers fares ("The Southwest Effect") O&D numbers rise just as dramatically.

Good lord.. there are more destinations besides that.. and let's try some NON-WN routes...

NYC (1258 RDU)/(958 CLT)
ATL (1069 RDU)/(265 CLT)
LAX (444 RDU)/(414 CLT)
DFW (436 RDU)/(377 CLT)
IAH (329 RDU)/(169 CLT)
DTW (301 RDU)/(238 CLT)
BDL (284 RDU)/(175 CLT)

so now what? Care to offer and explanation for those numbers???? But that's not even my point.. the point is CLT is no better than RDU.. so that assanine statement earlier was completely inaccurate.

Thanks for the back-up guys!

The cltguy is the typical ATL-wannabe from CLT...and exactly the reason why US never moved their HQs to a city that shows such little appreciation.

Southwest can't 'pounce' because they don't have a whole slew of planes they can throw at the market without abandoning established routes in the process. They can, at best, do like they did here at MHT: start with a dozen or so flights and add incrementally from there. In the end, it's all about the planes and how many of them they can assign to such an effort.

Chris in NH

The point is that CLTguy is absolutely right. Charlotte has more people, and if fares were the same, CLT would have more O&D, probably by a lot. Your only big disparity is due to the fact that Charlotte-Atlanta is much more easily drivable than Triangle-Atlanta.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 46): The point is that CLTguy is absolutely right. Charlotte has more people, and if fares were the same, CLT would have more O&D, probably by a lot. Your only big disparity is due to the fact that Charlotte-Atlanta is much more easily drivable than Triangle-Atlanta.

Unless I'm mistaken.. CLT MSA has about 1.5 Mil, RDU MSA has about 1.3..

Popn wise.. CLT has about 540,000 while Raleigh has about 300,000.. so where is the large popn difference to make CLT has so much more O&D?

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 47): Unless I'm mistaken.. CLT MSA has about 1.5 Mil, RDU MSA has about 1.3.

I have a copy on my hard drive but not the link, but a few weeks ago there was a discussion of MSA populations in another thread. According to the source provided by a link in that thread, the difference in MSA population between CLT and RDU is 551,166 people, about a 64% difference (CLT: 1,410,292, RDU: 859,126). However, I have seen other numbers that puts the gap at about 300,000, so I suppose it really depends on the numbers you use. Either way, however, the CLT MSA is definitely, at the very least, about 25% larger than the RDU MSA. That being said, the RDU MSA is growing at a rate faster than the CLT MSA (RDU: 7.79%, CLT: 6.00%).

RDU MSA is comprised of 2 MSAs.. Raleigh-Cary and Durham.. so in essence, they are still similar (not exactly, but not big enough difference to make a difference).