UALPHLCS
Topic Author
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United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:30 am

Chicago
United Airlines, for some reason, the world's second largest dealt another blow to the hopes of Airliners.net posters, dodging yet another disaster. Despite the fervent hopes and dreams of Airliners.net the airline continues to make progress in its efforts to emerge from Chapter 11 protection by agreeing to a tentative agreement with the IAM and the news that AMFA members ratified a 5 year deal.

"It's not fair!" was the shrill cry of an anonymous A.Netter, "I've wanted to see UA go down since 2002, they should be forced to liquidate." Yet another said, "It's unfair that my favorite airline has to compete with UA, they have such a better route system, and they win awards for their mileage program yet UA's paint livery sucks, I just hate them."

Clearly the continued presence of UA has frustrated many. One airline exec has said "Sure there is too much capacity in the US market that's why we don't make money either, but UA should go down before us so we don't have to make any of the nessasary changes to the way we operate. I like the status quo so long as change is at UA's expense I'm for that too.

With these agreements in hand and a strike averted, UA is poised to emerge from Chapter 11. So long as fuel prices continue to hamper the industry UA will be in as much trouble as all the other carriers. However, as recent history shows we can expect great things from UA for a long time to come.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
SNATH
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:32 am

Hey UALPHLCS,

Very amusing and I loved the sarcasm!  bigthumbsup 

My best wishes to UA and its employees.

Tony
Nikon: we don't want more pixels, we want better pixels.
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:34 am

Here's one A-Netter who hopes they pull it off. Too many good people that don't deserve to lose thier jobs over this.

Good luck to U-ALL!
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
Cory6188
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:36 am

Congrats to UA on finally bringing this entire labor mess to a close. It will definitely be nice not to see these "UA Must Die" threads anymore.

Traditionally, I'm a CO fan, but what frustrates me is that all of the CO employees were in a much better position when it came to paycuts, yet the F/A's wouldn't ratify them, yet this is probably the fourth time that the UA employees have taken cuts, and they have been ratified. Are the CO F/A's just incredibly selfish, are the UA employees stupid, or is there something else going on here?
 
UAopsMGR
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:38 am

Good..Very Good!!

Thanks for the laugh.  biggrin 
Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.- Homer Simpson
 
exFATboy
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:00 am

*snicker*

very funny...

Quoting UALPHLCS (Thread starter):
With these agreements in hand and a strike averted, UA is poised to emerge from Chapter 11.



Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 3):
Congrats to UA on finally bringing this entire labor mess to a close. It will definitely be nice not to see these "UA Must Die" threads anymore.

Well, not sure I'd say "poised" - we'll see if they have the reorg plan completed by the end of the most recent extension. And the labour mess isn't really closed until the IAM ratifies today's agreement.

But the UA situation is looking a lot better than it did a month ago, eh?

(btw, I predict we won't see the end of the "UA Must Die" threads until either (a) UA turns a profit, or (b) someone else files Ch 11 and we start to see the "[fill in the blank] Must Die" threads start.)  Yeah sure
 
DL WIDGET HEAD
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:06 am

Quoting UALPHLCS (Thread starter):
United Airlines, for some reason, the world's second largest

Not to get off topic but UA is no longer the 2nd largest. They lost that title to DL from about Feb this year.
 
sshank
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:08 am

Nice one UALPHLCS!

I hope now they will emerge from BK a stronger carrier with their route structure intact. I am sure they have disappointed a ton of folks here by not selling of their pacific ops and LHR slots!

Way to go UA. Now please turn a profit so that we can all feel better about the turnaround and to prove to the sceptics that it is for real.
 
Cory6188
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:08 am

I know I'm going to probably be flamed for this, but I'll just don my flameproof suit...

I mean this in the nicest way possible, but I do have one problem with UA's neverending bankruptcy. If I understand the Chapter 11 process correctly, UA is able to stop paying some of their bills while they reorganize the company. If they don't have to pay their bills for a while (going on 2 years now), it's kind of unfair for the other airlines that aren't in Ch.11 to compete with UA when they have to pay for everything while UA has some breathing room. For example, if UA doesn't have to pay interest on lease payments (or any example like that) while AA, CO, DL, NW, etc. do, how is that fair to the rest of the airlines? UA has lower costs while the rest have higher costs.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but that is one thing I do have issues with. 6 months in bankruptcy? Fine. 1 year? Okay as long as you're making progress. But 2 years? It really seems to be stretching things to me.

Once again, I don't mean to attack UA (and I hope I don't sound like Kahala777), but this has been my viewpoint for a while. As I said, if I'm factually wrong, please correct me.
 
bravo7e7
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:14 am

Quoting DL Widget Head (Reply 6):

Not to get off topic but UA is no longer the 2nd largest. They lost that title to DL from about Feb this year.

I believe that is not quite true. If you count Delta Connection they may carry more passangers. If that is so, you may want to call Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and all of the other news stations who call UA #2.
 
S12PPL
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:17 am

What a childish post.

I'm sorry, but you are no better than the people you are flaming....
Next Flights: 12/31 AS804 PDX-MCO 2/3 AS19 MCO-SEA QX2545 SEA-PDX
 
Cory6188
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:20 am

Quoting S12PPL (Reply 10):
What a childish post.

I'm sorry, but you are no better than the people you are flaming....

My apologies - I really didn't intend to insult anyone...
 
m404
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:29 am

I hope United gets it right. They survive to continue the fight and build customer loyalty and employee satisfaction. Why? Because if they can do both of those then there is hope for any Legacy carrier. Pretty simple huh.

To my UA friends. Blue skies folks.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
md80fanatic
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:29 am

My airline has less debt that yours! Nuhh uhhh, mine does!  tongue 

Might as well face it, all the airlines are in trouble.
 
baw716
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:30 am

UAPHLCS
I suppose this is a good day and a bad day. Anything that works in favor of UAL management is a bad day. Anything that works for the employees of UAL and keeps things alive so that you can have jobs and keep things going is a good day.

I would like to believe that there is a David out there who will fell this mighty Goliath called the UAL Board of Directors et al... but alas there is not. I think the best that can be hoped for is that another entity with some better business sense can come in and take over for this band of ancient crones who have been around too long in this business, and the one from outside who doesn't know any better.

For now, keep fighting on...just know that there are people on this forum who stand with you in our thoughts and prayers, and hopefully soon, in our actions.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
DL WIDGET HEAD
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:33 am

Quoting BRAVO7E7 (Reply 9):
I believe that is not quite true. If you count Delta Connection they may carry more passengers. If that is so, you may want to call Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and all of the other news stations who call UA #2.

Actually, it is true. An airlines size is generally measured by RPK's. Using this parameter, ATW's (Air Transport World Magazine) ranks the top 5 airlines this way from March 2005:

1. AA 51,882,295,000 RPKS
2. DL 43,801,995,000 RPKS
3. UA 42,686,443,000 RPKS
4. AF/KL 42,161,000,000 RPKS
5. NW 29,231,592,000 RPKS

If quantity of passengers carried were the criteria, DL has beat UA in this regard for the last 2 decades. As for calling the press and advising them of the new data, that's not my job, it's there's. They should be responsible for the accuracy of their information instead of using old data.
 
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kurt
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:33 am

One thing that UA haters seem to overlook when they say "UA has been in bankruptcy for too long!" is that a lot of time and effort was put into the attempt at securing federal loan guarantees. Of course this didn't work out but it was basically "Plan A." The initial round of cost-cutting was a means to the end of securing those loans. It probably was the wrong way to go but it did take time and and effort to show good faith that UA had a plan to emerge from bankruptcy.

I'm not saying that UA has done everything right to get to this point but it's not like they've just been lounging in bankruptcy waiting for a better economy or competitors to die off or whatever.

Very glad to see the labor troubles resolved as much as they have been; I have a long trip scheduled for this Friday and I had my fingers crossed! Very funny post, BTW, UALPHLCS.
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:33 am

"Please correct me if I'm wrong, but that is one thing I do have issues with. 6 months in bankruptcy? Fine. 1 year? Okay as long as you're making progress. But 2 years? It really seems to be stretching things to me."

No UA has to pay its bills which is why people still get paid fuel still gets delivered and food still is served. Chapter 11 simply means that UA's creditors can not foreclose. Certain leagl actions can not be taken without the approval of the judge like repossesions or lawsuits.

Two years in Chapter 11 is nothing in terms of time. It is a lenghty process. Dow-Corning spent 11 years in Chapter 11 while Polaroid is over 4 years. It simply is a matter of time for the Company to reorganize without interference from outsiders, like banks or corporate raiders. It is up to the Judge to decide if the Company in question is folling around biding its time, or sincerly acting to et out of protection. If they aren't convinced the Management is acting in a way that is in the best interests of the Comanpy AND the Creditors, he will rule in favor of the Creditors and the Company will be decended upon like hyenas on a dying gazelle.

I'm glad most of you have found this thread amusing. My point was not to make any specific arguments about UA and it survival or not, but to illusrate the shrillness of the anti-UA crowd, and how tired thier same old arguments are. It used to be a weekly then monthly countdown until UA's inevitable Chapter 7 filing. And the Anti-UA people ate up every word they said to one another like it was Gospel. Well it's been two years, and everyhting they say has been wrong, so when will the Anti-UA crowd's credibility finally be broken. It only tool Dan Rather a few months and two questionable stories for his credibility to sink into the toilet, these guys have had two years of nonstop blathering, and yet people still read thier posts. Incredible.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
mattnrsa
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 6:55 am

Regarding the size of DL vs UA, the numbers are skewed because DL owns some of the Connection carriers, inflating their RPMs. Comparing mainline to mainline, UA is bigger. If the UAX numbers were included with UA's, UA would be bigger. Not that it makes a huge difference. Both are very big, and I'm sure their biggest priority is profitability.

Back on subject, great news for UA and great post. Nice to see the exit from BK closer than ever.
 
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PA110
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:02 am

Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 8):
I know I'm going to probably be flamed for this, but I'll just don my flameproof suit...

You're not getting flamed for your post, but for the ignorance behind it. You clearly don't understand the bankruptcy process, and you don't know your history either. America West was in bankruptcy for 3 years. So in future, just stay on the sidelines, read and learn. As always, you are free to post anything you like, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should. You might do better to wait until you have something more intelligent to say, or are at least better informed.

Oh, and by the way - UALPHLCS - brilliant post! Very funny - and right on target.

[Edited 2005-06-01 00:07:45]
Look, it's been swell, but the swelling's gone down.
 
avek00
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:02 am

United DOES continue to disappoint - despite enjoying nearly three years of benefits and protections afforded by Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, the airline STILL loses vast sums of money, and has yet to propose a Plan of Reorganization or secure emergence financing.

[Edited 2005-06-01 00:22:23]
Live life to the fullest.
 
baw716
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:11 am

This is why the time has come for the court to allow other entities to offer their plans of reorganization for United. Let others come in and compete and let us prove to the creditor committee, the judge and the employees at United that some entities (hopefully us) have a plan that will bring United back into the black and change the company in a very profound way...a way that will make United more competitive, less monolithic and more able to deal with issues such as $80/barrel for fuel....which right now is the #1 blight on the airline industry.

When that day comes, then there will be hope for United.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:15 am

Excellent, damn good.

Means my tix in October are still good. . .  Smile

Means thousands of employees still have jobs . . .  Smile

Means the A-Net doubters are crying in the oatmeal . . .  Smile

Excellent news!!!

Quoting PA110 (Reply 19):
Oh, and by the way - UALPHLCS - brilliant post! Very funny - and right on target.

 yes   yes   yes 
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
hiflyer
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:17 am

Cory

You do have a couple valid questions..flamers aside. As you have read by now yes UAL does pay it's bills and that Chapt 11 is used to protect against certain legal actions. As you have also read UAL has not been in Chapter 11 a record length of time...far more companies have been in far longer.

And that is the rub...I agree wholeheartedly that overall the chapt 11 process has been abused by other companies...these prepackaged 6 month-1 year deals were nothig more than a legal shyster moves. Worse....it got everyone, that is those without good knowledge of the process and details and just parroting other talking heads, thinking that is the way it is supposed to be...and it is not with a large company with many different areas to work thru. In this day and age of instant gratification some things still take time to be done correctly.

Aside from that UALPHLCS...nice nice piece for the thread starter...well done...and I bet you have been readying that post for awhile...grin.
 
baw716
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:43 am

The bankruptcy process is just that. A process. In Chapter 11, the idea is to give the entity filing the Ch 11 time to reorganize its business under the protection of the court from its creditors. It does not completely relieve UAL the responsibility of paying those bills, it allows UAL the time it needs to put its house in order so it can pay its bills.

During the process, UAL does pay its bills, albeit under different terms than normal. The court intercedes when a creditor attempts to seize assets, etc. In the case of the 767, the lessors were allowed to take the aircraft back as a result of UAs inability to meet payments under an agreement sanctioned by the court (as I understand it). Please correct me if I am in error on this point.

Once the company is ready, it files its plan with the court and if the court and the creditor committee believe it is sufficiently viable that a) the company will have a reasonable chance of success and b) the creditors will have a better than reasonable chance of recovering their debt, then the court will approve the plan and the company will exit bankruptcy and proceed along with their business. There is no specific timeframe for Chapter 11 to go on; so long as the company meets its DIP conditions and it has sufficient cash on hand to continue doing business and pay its bills under the court schedule and the court is reasonably satisfied that the business is moving forward toward a solution, then the Ch 11 can go on for quite sometime. Only if there is an immediate cash crisis or if the DIP agreement is grossly violated would the judge intervene to cease the operations of the company pending a hearing to determine the viability of the company's continued operations.

As I understand it, that's pretty much it. As someone who has been involved in a bankruptcy in the past (not mine, but assisted with someone elses), I do have some knowledge of the process, albeit someone aged (about 10 years ago).

My point with this post is to point out that its not the length of time in bankruptcy that matters. Its what the company does in bankruptcy that matters. My concern is that they have gone to the judge and have failed to come up with a viable reorganization plan. Before going into Chapter 11, they failed to obtain the 9/11 Government Assistance Loan after applying on three separate occasions. Each time they were rejected because the council felt that United did not present a business plan that was viable in any of the three cases. In point of fact, the business plans brought before the panel were evidently so bad that they were deemed "not based in reality".

This tells me that this management group does not have a plan. They do not have a vision for the future. They may have the ability to obtain the costs they need to exit bankruptcy; however, I doubt that the judge will allow them to exit bankruptcy without a viable plan to meet the current challenges of the industry. I believe that the judge is waiting for them to get to a point in which they submit another business plan before he does anything. Once they submit another plan and if he determines that it is not viable, then I believe we may see some action out of this judge. For now, I think it is possible to believe that he is giving the UAL management enough latitude to get the costs savings they need to get out of the mess and get back to the drawing boards.
After that, then they will have to prove themselves again. If they cannot, then its anyones guess as to what the next step will be.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
TrappedinMKG
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:46 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 22):
Means my tix in October are still good. . . Smile

Don't count your chickens before they cry wolf.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 22):
Means thousands of employees still have jobs . . . Smile

For now. Y'all are putting the cart before the horse (to use yet another cliché). There may not be a walkout tonight, but they still have to pay their bills. They're still hemorrhaging money like crazy, and still have inept management and disgruntled employees. Anything that isn't nailed down is in the process of being repossessed, and they're cutting routes to match. Meanwhile, an airline that can't afford to open a soda stand is opening a pilot base. In essence, they pulled out the second-to-last nail in their coffin. Big deal...

[Edited 2005-06-01 00:52:42]
 
Planesmart
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 7:55 am

The judge takes a great deal of input from the creditor ctte and they in turn from all other creditors.

If the creditors didn't support giving UA more time, neither would the judge.

Patience and support is finite, as UA execs well know.
 
SFOMEX
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 8:11 am

Quoting UALPHLCS (Thread starter):

That's the spirit United employees should have. United will make it because of loyal employees like yourself. Welcome to my RUL and more important, good luck to you and United.

Long live to the friendly skies!
The only thing worst than the GOP is the Democratic Party, think about it!
 
RDUDDJI
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 8:45 am

Good news for UAL, and nice post UALPHLCS. Now hopefully UA will call me back with results from my interview two weeks ago...  Yeah sure

Quoting UALPHLCS (Thread starter):
"It's not fair!" was the shrill cry of an anonymous A.Netter, "I've wanted to see UA go down since 2002, they should be forced to liquidate."

signed,
W. Mark Felt  Smile
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
baw716
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 9:01 am

Oh, in case I wasn't clear in my earlier posts,
congratulations to the many UAL employees who survived a bullet today. In my book you are the heros in this nightmare. Keep your hopes up and your spirits high (in spite of whos running the shop). You never know when something better is going to come along.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
avek00
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 9:20 am

Quoting Baw716 (Reply 24):
I believe that the judge is waiting for them to get to a point in which they submit another business plan before he does anything. Once they submit another plan and if he determines that it is not viable, then I believe we may see some action out of this judge.

Careful here - a business plan and the Plan of Reorganization are two entirely different things.

United currently has exclusivity of filing a *Plan of Reorganization*. The POR will indicate how the company intends to restructure its FINANCES upon emergence - the creditors vote up or down on the Plan, and the bankruptcy judge must confirm the Plan. Any business plan submitted by United is just that - a roadmap to how the company will OPERATE going forward that, in and of itself, is not necessarily subject to creditor approval. As a practical matter, a company will generally provide at least an outline of its business plan as part of a POR, in order to garner creditor support for its continued existence.

Just wanted to point out the subtle but important distinction between the two.
Live life to the fullest.
 
exFATboy
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 9:30 am

Quoting UALPHLCS (Reply 17)::
Two years in Chapter 11 is nothing in terms of time. It is a lenghty process. Dow-Corning spent 11 years in Chapter 11 while Polaroid is over 4 years.

According to this website , the average length of a "regular" Chapter 11 filing is 18 months. The average for all Chapter 11s is 15 months, but "prepackaged" Ch 11s pull the average down - they only average about three months.

UA filed on Dec 9, 2002, so they'll hit the 30 month mark on June 9 of this year. Whether this is truly excessive is open to debate - UA is certainly larger and more complex than the average Chapter 11 filing, but on the other hand UA should be able to afford a legal team up to the challenge. I think it's fair to state that UA spent far too much time screwing around with the ATSB loans and not getting its expenses in order. On the other hand the fuel price run-up made it necessary to go back and look for additional cost cuts - there's something to be said for not emerging like US did and having to file again.

I'm still not entirely convinced that UA's current management team has a coherent vision of what the post-emergence UA will look like.

Dow-Corning is not an applicable example - that case went so long because of the ongoing liability battles, not at all comparable to UA's situation. I'm not familiar with the Polaroid case.
 
baw716
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:42 am

Avek00
Thank you for reminding me of the difference.
baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
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ua2162
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:49 am

Well, one look at my username will tell you what side of the fence I sit on. The bottom line here is that UA is still flying and will continue to do so for many years - regardless of what is posted here. Awesome thread, UA PHLCS!

United will stand!
 
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ER757
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:49 am

Quoting UALPHLCS (Reply 17):
I'm glad most of you have found this thread amusing. My point was not to make any specific arguments about UA and it survival or not, but to illusrate the shrillness of the anti-UA crowd, and how tired thier same old arguments are.

Yes, I found it amusing, but it's not only naysayers about UA who post negativity, but folks waiting for A or B to trip over themselves, a specific aircraft type to "fail" etc. If you're an aviation enthusiast, why would you wish for bad things to happen to a specific airline, manufacturer, or aircraft type?
Doesn't make sense. Thanks for skewering these folks, it was done in the best Mark Twain tradition.
 
kaneporta1
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:51 am

I was wondering, if UA does liquidify, is anyone going to get the rights of channel 9?  flamed 
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
DouglasDC8
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:52 am

To quote BAW716:

"Each time they were rejected because the council felt that United did not present a business plan that was viable in any of the three cases. In point of fact, the business plans brought before the panel were evidently so bad that they were deemed "not based in reality"."

Actually, the last rejection was based upon the fact that two of the three members of the ATSB felt that UA had made enough cuts and would be able to attract exit financing from private sources. This was before the run-up in crude oil prices.

The following is a quote from the Associated Press in an article published on June 29, 2004:

"The board again noted that the airline had taken positive steps to pare costs and strengthen its competitive standing. But the panel once again said that credit markets have improved since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, meaning the company has a chance of getting the financing it needs without federal assistance."
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:57 am

Quoting Kaneporta1:
I was wondering, if UA does liquidify, is anyone going to get the rights of channel 9?

I don't think UA will be turning into a liquid anytime soon, so nobody. Seriously, there is about a 0.000001% chance UA will liquidate now, and in the extremely unlikely event that they do, Channel 9 doesn't require any rights. Any airline could install the necessary equipment to offer such service, only UA has chosen to.
 
F9HNLPLZ
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RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 11:27 am

I agree, it was a difficult day, but UAL will come out of this and be on top. Lets hope our friend, begins with a K, does not get on this one. He will rant and rave how UAL has been abusing the process and failed. No, Bankruptcy is a time to get all your items in order. That is what is happening. I foresee other carriers having to do the same if the loses continue. UAL will be here for some time and it will now be more of a force to be dealt with. The proud United Employees hold your head high, because one thing every passenger said today was that the service was GREAT!!!!! Great job folks!! Keep it up.  Smile
Frontier Airlines, A Whole Different Animal. Maybe some day to Hawaii???
 
swank300
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:37 am

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:10 pm

Granted, United's management has been disappointing during their longwinded bankruptcy process. I'm sure however, that I'm not the only one who has flown United to a variety of destinations all around the world and have met or exceeded expectations in most locations. I agree with the other members as well that these hard working employees who have continued to work tirelessly and put on a happy face during this extremely trying time for them and their airline, do not deserve to lose their jobs: that would be thousands of people out of work. United is and will always be my favorite airline and I'm pulling for them and their employees to recover as quickly and as best as they can to compete in this cutthroat market. The ONLY disappointment is this thread which has absolutely no relevance or benefit in this forum that is usually quite interesting and relevant.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5169
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:11 pm

What will be interesting is the reaction from the mechanics, pilots, and F/As. Now, the members of the IAM will have a union pension, in addition to the old pension that was handed over to the Pension Board.

So, any new hire at UA that winds up in an IAM-represented employee group is a part of a defined-benefit plan. The other employees will have a defined contribution or 401(k) plan.

Let's see how long the labor harmony lasts. The F/As have been mad since the creation of the ESOP. The head of the AFA was blowing a gasket on CNBC in late 2000 or 2001 about the pilots having an industry-leading contract, while the F/As had an industry-average contract, and they had to put up with irate passengers due to the pilots not working overtime in the summer of 2000.
 
FriendlySkies
Posts: 3540
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:57 pm

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:23 pm

They can't do anything. They already agreed to a 5 year contract, any breach of that contract would allow UA to fire them.

Basically, the other unions can piss and moan all they want, but in the end, it's their own damn fault for not negotiating a similar deal. The IAM was able to corner UA into accepting it by threatening to strike 1/3 of the entire work force.

[Edited 2005-06-01 05:26:53]
 
ordpark
Posts: 639
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 3:20 pm

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:21 pm

UALPHLCS - simply great!!! If I haven't put you on my respected list, I'll do it now!!!

In legacy airline boardrooms all over the country; the question is being asked - "how are we gonna match what UA just did?
 
jetdeltamsy
Posts: 2688
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2000 11:51 am

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:24 pm

Quoting UALPHLCS (Thread starter):
Sure there is too much capacity in the US market that's why we don't make money either, but UA should go down before us so we don't have to make any of the nessasary changes to the way we operate. I like the status quo so long as change is at UA's expense I'm for that too.

i think many see the demise of UA or US as a quick temporary fix to the problem of overcapacity. i don't think there are many out there who would like to see either carrier (and the accompanying jobs) go.

Quoting UALPHLCS (Thread starter):
as recent history shows we can expect great things from UA for a long time to come.

huh? what did i miss? UA continues to suffer enormous losses, poor labor relations and the threat of aircraft being repossessed. what "great things" exactly are you talking about??
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
UAalltheway
Posts: 1358
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:31 am

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:31 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 2):
Here's one A-Netter who hopes they pull it off.

Add me to your list aswell. The best of luck to UA.  Wink  Smile
 
UA747400
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 8:49 am

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:50 pm

I have a flight with UA in late July should I be safe in terms of the airline still surviving?
Ghandi- The best way to find yourself, is to lose yourself in the service of others
 
StevenUhl777
Posts: 3281
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2001 11:02 am

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:54 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 20):
and has yet to propose a Plan of Reorganization or secure emergence financing

Now that the events of today have happened, and once the contract is ratified by the IAM, then UAL meets the requirements of the outside financiers who have submitted proposals and offers to help it reemerge. Before today, it wasn't financeable without ratifed cuts, among other things. Today, and 6/17, are watershed events. The fact UA is now 99.999% beyond the labor and pension issues, the real work towards reemerging can begin. FYI, the P.o.R. can't be filed until the exit financing is arranged.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 22):
Means my tix in October are still good

That's funny...I thought you were a CO flyer and loyal to them? I didn't realize you also flew UA, but thank you all the same!  Smile

We're almost there, guys and gals...just 3-4 months away and it will be "Chapter 1".
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
baw716
Posts: 1463
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2003 7:02 pm

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 2:23 pm

DouglasDC8,
Thank you for clarifying the statements of the ATSB. I apologize for misquoting the ATSB statements regarding UA's applications. Since you have brought the issue of the exact verbage of the statements, let's by all means get the verbage straight.

In the first application, UA was turned down because the ATSB believed the UA business plan was flawed. The letter written by the board to Jake Brace on December 17, 2002 states: "The board believes that the business plan proposed by United is not financially sound. In the board's view, United's management presented a business plan that does not position the company to meet the challenges of the current airline industry environment and to achieve long term financial stability..."

On page two, the letter continues, "The Board would like to make you aware of the following fundamental deficiencies in United's proposal:

-United's business plan is predicated upon a significant near-term rebound in revenue. In particular, United's forecasts that its passenger unit revenue (revenue per available seat mile) will rise sharply in the near term due to a signficant rise in yields. This forecase for unit revenue growth in the next few years is substantiall more optimistic than forecasts of industry observers and the Board's consultants. The Board does not concur with United's explanation for this divergence.

-The more conservative alternative projections submitted by United, which assume a delayed industry revenue recovery, anticipate near term unit revenue growth that is still in excess of the base case expectations of industry observers.

-The Board also believes that the company's revenue forecast does not make for sufficient allowance for the likely effects of continued expansion by low cost carriers in United's markets as well as other potential structural changes affecting industry revenue."

There are couple of other points the Board makes in its letter, however, these are the critical points. In essence, UAs expectations for high yield revenue growth were so far above what the board considered what was reasonable in the short term that it was not deemed realistic. Furthermore, UA's view did not take into account sufficiently the effects of competition, especially that from low cost carriers and other structural changes that may affect revenue.

This was in December 2002. As it turned out, the Board was right. The high yield revenue that UA was banking on to bring them out of the hole and to repay the government loan did not materialize. Furthermore, by developing TED, United has by its own devices diluted its own revenue by creating a method by which business travelers who travel in markets that are not "primary business markets" by United's definition pay fares that are substantially lower than what UA would have them paying.

Now lets talk about the other two applications:

In June 2004, United filed its second application, post bankruptcy. Of course as we know, the board turned that loan down. Now DouglasDC8, to respond directly to your second point, you quoted that the Board "noted the positive steps the company has taken since entering bankruptcy in 2002 to lower its cost, strengthen its competitive position and improve its governance structure." The letter goes on the point out that the airline credit markets have been improving since late 2001 and 2002, the period during which the Board granted most of its approvals for loan guarantees, increasing the likelihood of United succeeding without a loan guarantee. It finally says that "Given these circumstances, a majority of the Board believes that the likelihood of United succeeding without a loan guarantee is sufficiently high so as to make a loan guarantee unnecessary. Finally, the Board considered proposals made by United in a series of meetings this week. A majority of the Board believes that these revisions do not change their view of the necessity of a federal loan guarantee."

However, the primary premise for the denial of the second and third rejections of the loan applications of United is: "a majority of the Board concluded that a guaranteed loan to United is not a necessary part of maintaining a safe, efficient and viable commercial aviation system in the United States, a requirement of the Act."

This is a huge statement. The problem with this statement is that it can be interpreted any number of ways. It can be construed as good news, since the statement following it states that UA has made a number of steps since its last filing and based on those steps, the Board feels that UA doesn't need the loan.

Or, it can be interpreted the other way, which would mean in the opinion of the Board, United is no longer vital to maintaining a safe, efficient and viable commercial aviation system in the United States.

I tend to believe that the Board meant the latter, while stating the former. This is called political double talk. Here is why.

The first denial really devastated UAs managements credibility. It is nearly impossible to go to a government entity with a loan guarantee request and get turned down on the premise that the business plan does not have any basis in reality, which in effect was the point the Board was making with their statement in their letter to United.

When United came back the second time for the loan guarantee, I suspect the ATSB did not forget the first time they filed their loan guarantee. Not only would they have reviewed the business plan and financials of the new application, they would have reviewed the actual results of United against the old business plan to see if what United had forecast had really any truth to it. With United in bankruptcy and sinking further down the hole, with no credibility, why would the ATSB approve a loan the second time around? The answer is, they would not.

The last letter of the ATSB to United is really telling: They simply repeat their last position and state that they would not consider any further applications from United. They felt that United was not necessary to maintaining a safe, efficient and viable commercial aviation system in the US, and after that statement was made, there was nothing more to say.

This was not so much a statement about United Airlines as a statement about UA management. Remember, it is UA management that has put up these applications, created these business plans and have lost the credibility of their airline with the ATSB and with a great many other entities.

So DouglasDC8, this is why I write such a long post in response to yours, in your attempt to correct my statement. I thank you for doing so, because it is important to set the facts and the record straight, so that everyone can truly understand the facts at hand. Remember, I truly stand behind United Airlines and their employees. It is their management that must go. They must go very soon.

The website for the information for this post:
www.treasury.gov/offices/domestic-finance/atsb/press

You will find each and every press release and every letter written to UA that was the basis for this post.

For my continued support of UAL employees,

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
N867BX
Posts: 295
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2004 10:19 am

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 3:19 pm

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 43):
huh? what did i miss? UA continues to suffer enormous losses, poor labor relations and the threat of aircraft being repossessed. what "great things" exactly are you talking about??

So what happens if United continues to lose money?
 
ANCFlyer
Posts: 21391
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:51 pm

RE: United Continues To Disappoint

Wed Jun 01, 2005 3:32 pm

Quoting UA747400 (Reply 45):
That's funny...I thought you were a CO flyer and loyal to them? I didn't realize you also flew UA, but thank you all the same

Well, truth be told, I still have over 200,000 US miles to burn . . . and I live in ANC . . .greatest thing that ever happened was US joining Star Alliance. Gave me a chance to burn those miles before both carriers died. I DO NOT expect that, but being of a rather intelligent breed I thought burning the miles while I can to my advantage . . .

Don't get me wrong, UA is an awesome carrier . . . and I'm glad US is in the game with Star Alliance . . . but I prefer CO . . . for ANC connections.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but this is strictly a personally stingy move, not to do with UA specifically my friend . . .

That said, I continue to wish all at UA best of luck and God's speed!!! In the early 1990s you were my carrier of choice, managing a 1K status in 14 months. Drive on UA.

What kind of person would I be if I wished people out of a job?

Regards
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND

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