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isuA380B777
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Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 7:41 am

Hi all

It's clear that A380 delivery will be delayed. Does any one have information when then 747 was first delivered back in 1970's, was that delayed too? Or was it delivered on time?

Regards
Isu
 
beauing
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 7:46 am

It's like comparing apples to oranges. The 747 was designed over 30 years ago before CADD systems and other improvements. We expect a lot more in this century...



[Edited 2005-06-02 00:50:24]
 
VS74741R
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 7:58 am

I remember the first 747s were delayed due to the aircraft being ready before the engines. Something to do with P&W.
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flyAUA
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 7:58 am

Quoting Beauing (Reply 1):
It's like comparing apples to oranges. The 747 was designed over 30 years ago before CADD systems and other improvements. We expect a lot more in this century...

Bad excuse... tut tut tut  tongue 
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ahlfors
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:00 am

Quoting Beauing (Reply 1):
It's like comparing apples to oranges. The 747 was designed over 30 years ago before CADD systems and other improvements. We expect a lot more in this century

Yeah, but when those advantages are already calculated into the original timeframe, you're suddenly comparing apples with apples.
 
ZRH
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:43 am

I think there wasn't any really new airliner which wasn't delayed in the last 30 years. For example the 777 which is now very successful.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:51 am

Well, initial production was ahead of schedule...IIRC, they started building the prototype before the assembly building (same one still in use in Everett) was completed.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:54 am

I think people forget the fiasco of the early 747 program.

Developed with a late rush to meet a deadline for Pan American, the 747-100 was actually delayed from the original November 1969 date of entry into service to January 1970, and even then there were still substantial problems with the Pratt & Whitney JT9D engines that took many months afterwards to resolve. Small wonder why when Boeing developed the higher-MTOW 747-200 they also got General Electric to certify the CF6-50 engine and Rolls-Royce to certify the RB.211-524 engine for the 742.

I think Airbus knows very well that fiasco and decided to be a bit more conservative in its testing program with the A380-800 to make sure they don't have the type of problems that plagued the 747 when it first went into service.
 
yul332LX
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:54 am

Yes, it was delayed in production and the cost ended up being much higher than forecasted.

[Edited 2005-06-02 02:04:05]
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aeropiggot
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:01 am

Thrust me, the 787 will be delayed too, may be a month or two. That is just the price you pay for introducing new technology. New software, systems, material, engines, configuration/aerodynamics, no matter how much you test on the iron bird and wind tunnel, something will slip under the radar, and you won't find out until flight test. That is the nature of the beast, so I would not laugh out too loud at Airbus, even though they can be a bit cocky sometimes.  Big grin
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caboclo
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:04 am

Pan Am was talking about suing Boeing over the delays, and Boeing was going to sue P&W.
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whitehatter
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:05 am

Delays in projects which break new ground for a manufacturer are to be expected. The 747 suffered from major issues like weight and the early JT9D engines being underpowered and unreliable.

Boeing sorted out both problems eventually and the JT9D turned out to be a superb product in its revised, uprated form.
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isuA380B777
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:18 am

Quoting Caboclo (Reply 10):
Pan Am was talking about suing Boeing over the delays,

History is repeating again !!
 
atmx2000
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:21 am

Quoting AeroPiggot (Reply 9):
Thrust me,

Unless you are a cute lass, I would rather not "thrust" you.  duck 
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stirling
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:31 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 7):
I think people forget the fiasco of the early 747 program.

Which carried over into the first flight.

PanAm scheduled flight, JFK-LHR, on 21Jan70, didn't leave until 2am the next day...22Jan70. Think it left 1:52am.
Cause: Overheating Engine.
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B744F
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 9:37 am

I fail to see the excuse for technology as causing a delay. Technology, if anything, would help the design and testing process because almost everything was already tested in the simulator instead of before computer design and testing was done it was all done by hand and brain.
 
aeropiggot
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 10:01 am

Quote:
B744F Reply 15: I fail to see the excuse for technology as causing a delay. Technology, if anything, would help the design and testing process because almost everything was already tested in the simulator instead of before computer design and testing was done it was all done by hand and brain



Remember B744F, the first airplane off the assembly line is just like a prototype. No matter how much you test apriori, this is the first time the entire system is assembled as one. It is virtually impossible to predict how all the various systems from hundreds of manufacturers around the world are going to work when put together for the first time. While at the same time you are trying to push the envelope. Don't forget we are all humans, and Murphy is a "SOB", so faults are just an inherit part of our business. But we do get it right eventually.  Smile
A scientist discovers that which exists, an engineer creates that which never was.
 
beauing
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 1:47 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 3):
Bad excuse... tut tut tut

Maybe a better excuse would be:

Quote:
we never realized the degree of customization airlines would want, Mr. Leahy said.




[Edited 2005-06-02 07:04:47]
 
trent900
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 5:20 pm

Quoting IsuA380B777 (Reply 12):
Quoting Caboclo (Reply 10):
Pan Am was talking about suing Boeing over the delays,

History is repeating again !!

The airlines that will have to put-up with the delays will be compensated by Airbus, it's written into the contracts, this happened with the 777 as well. So there is no need for them to sue. Whether this was the case 30 years ago I don't know.

Quoting B744F (Reply 15):
I fail to see the excuse for technology as causing a delay.

I don't think its the technology causing the few problems. Isn't it something to do with interior fittings??

D.
 
N1120A
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 5:47 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 7):
Small wonder why when Boeing developed the higher-MTOW 747-200 they also got General Electric to certify the CF6-50 engine and Rolls-Royce to certify the RB.211-524 engine for the 742.

The CF6 was available on the 741 as well
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lightsaber
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Thu Jun 02, 2005 6:02 pm

Quoting IsuA380B777 (Thread starter):
Does any one have information when then 747 was first delivered back in 1970's, was that delayed too? Or was it delivered on time?



Quoting RayChuang (Reply 7):
I think people forget the fiasco of the early 747 program.



Quoting RayChuang (Reply 7):
Developed with a late rush to meet a deadline for Pan American, the 747-100 was actually delayed from the original November 1969 date of entry into service to January 1970, and even then there were still substantial problems with the Pratt & Whitney JT9D engines that took many months afterwards to resolve.

With the 747, Pratt was so behind in Getting JT-9D's that fully assembled 747's were sitting on the tarmac waiting for engines. Technically, Boeing, Pratt, and Pan Am were in "bankruptcy" due to the 747. However, it was perceived to be a temperary "cash flow" issue and the banks kept the companies afloat through 1969/1970.

And how can fitting be delaying the A380? Did someone actually order ANY of the following:
1. Showers
2. Bowling alley
3. Pool
4. Beauty salon
5. Cargo hold restaurant

or any of the other crazy (non-revenue) ideas that were floated for bonus A380 fittings? More than likely the delay is due to Airbus reducing the "allowance" of weight for fittings and the customers had to redesign/recertification their interiors.

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RayChuang
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:31 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 19):
The CF6 was available on the 741 as well

I don't think so. The 747-100 series was pretty much exclusively JT9D engines, if I remember correctly.

When Boeing developed the improved 747-200 and 747-200B, Pratt & Whitney by then had finally squashed the JT9D problems with the JT9D-7 series and P&W were able to up the thrust output to 49,000-51,000 lb., necessary due to the higher MTOW of the -200/-200B series. At the same time, Boeing got GE to certify the CF6-50 series engine for the -200B, and also got Rolls-Royce to certify the RB.211-524 series engine for the -200B also.

I remember the 747-100's JT9D engine were rated at around 41,000 to 43,000 lb. thrust, and the engine still required water injection on takeoff.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:35 am

Quoting IsuA380B777 (Reply 12):
History is repeating again !!

Well, I don't hope some of the current launch customers of the A380 will go under...

Cheers!  wave 
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ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:10 am

Quoting B744F (Reply 15):
I fail to see the excuse for technology as causing a delay. Technology, if anything, would help the design and testing process because almost everything was already tested in the simulator instead of before computer design and testing was done it was all done by hand and brain.

You don't see it because you're lumping "technology" into the same bucket, when you need to differentiate between three major aspects of technology:

(1) The technology used to design the aircraft. This technology is expected to drastically reduce the design time, improve first model build quality, predict maintenance requirements, and even narrow the performance envelope.

(2) New technology used to build the aircraft. This can very much delay a program, since the build method has little or no track record for projects of scale. Read: the all-composite fuselage of the 787.

(3) New technology in the machine itself. Again, this can be a huge delay, and there's no way to forecast it. I'm guessing you don't write software for a living, or if you do, you aren't doing anything of consequence yet. Software alone can bring any major machine to its knees, and there are only two kinds of new software: those that have bugs (some of them "fatal"), and those that will have more bugs. I personally had a major deliverable milestone this week, and we only partially met it. That's SNAFU, or par for the technological course, if you will.

The 787 is a giant flying computer. It uses multiplexing, common computing, and even common networking to a much greater degree than any predecessor. It has a common engine interface with common controllers. Theroretically, you should be able to change the engines, download the new control software into the common computer, and fire it up. Wanna take bets on how that plays the first time they try it?

It's an all-electric airplane. You can unit test the crap out of any individual component or system. But you simply cannot predict how they will work together until you actually put them all together in the finished aircraft and try it. No amount of "simulation" etc. will help you.

Finally, your statement implies that computers and technology have taken the brain work out of design and build. That's completely backwards! An increase in technology *increases* the amount of brainwork that goes into any product, even if it reduces the amount of hand work. And it really doesn't even do that, when considering new build technology. The prototyping process is *very* manual.
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dynkrisolo
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:07 am

Let's put everything in perspective.

Boeing signed the first 747 contract in 4/1966 with Pan Am.
Its first flight was 2/1969.
It entered into service in 1/1970.
So, it took them 3 years 9 months from first order, and 11 months from first flight.

Airbus signed the first 380 contract in 7/2000 with Emirates.
Its first flight was 4/2005.
It will enter into service no earlier than 10/2006.
So, it will take them at least 6 years 3 months from first order, and 18 months from first flight.

If Airbus fans are trying to find some consolations in 747's early day woes, I think you guys will need to look somewhere else.  Wink
 
B744F
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:29 am

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 23):
Finally, your statement implies that computers and technology have taken the brain work out of design and build. That's completely backwards! An increase in technology *increases* the amount of brainwork that goes into any product, even if it reduces the amount of hand work. And it really doesn't even do that, when considering new build technology. The prototyping process is *very* manual.

Sorry when a computer design program can test every system and flight model and give readouts as to what works better and is more efficient, etc. I'd say the design process is much less manual intensive and the first airplane to roll out of the factory will almost always perform as it was shown to in the computer testing. That's not "backwards", its just common sense.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:41 am

I hear the 777 was delayed, yet other threads have pointed out that the 777 tested in the month predicted, it was certified in the month predicted, and it was put into service in the month predicted.

I'd like to see some suport either way.

Or are you guys talking about delays in subsequent deliveries due to first year problems?

I also love how you are predicting 787 delays in order to justify current A380 delays despite a much longer design phase for the A380. They are very different planes, yes, but you can't assume as a given future delays when so far the project is ahead of schedule. When they start falling behind, then we'll talk...
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ikramerica
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 12:01 pm

And it may happen to Boeing, too, with the 787, but until that day comes, if it comes, you can't say it's true. So far, there is no indication of that other than random detractors saying "it's gonna be harder than they think" led of course by Airbus PR department.

I wish both planes would come out under schedule so we can see them flying sooner, and travel on them too! Big grin
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Carpethead
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 12:09 pm

The 741 was offered with all three engine manufacturers.
Saudi Arbaian selected RR for its 747-100Bs, while ANA selected GE for the SRs which is an off-shoot of the -100. There are only two 747SRs flying now. The rest are sitting idle in the US deserts awaiting most likely the scrappers torch.
 
Paul777
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 12:44 pm

Apples to oranges I know, but various articles about production delays at Boeing for various types. Hey it can happen to anyone. Look at Microsoft, roll out the software, and patch and patch and patch

737

777

slowdown
 
Ken777
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 1:08 pm

I can't help but remember what computers were like in the 60's. Took a computer course then and memory was passed around in a cup. It was a few little magnetic disks that were hard wired to make a huge 16K of memory. Everything else was about at the same stage - a 10Mb hard drive in 70 was $100,000.

To compare the resources used in developing the 747 and the 380 is beyond me. Boeing had a lot of talented engineers working at drafting tables and Airbus has massive state of the art computer systems with very advanced software.

If you compare the advanced resources available to Airbus it would seem logical that they would be able to develop the 380 in a fraction of the time it took to develop the 747 - especially since the 747 was a huge leap in size when compared to other commercial planes from Boeing in those days.

This isn't a slam at Airbus - more of a recognition of the exceptional job the engineers at Boeing achieved in a very short time.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 1:50 pm

Some 777's for BA were delayed months in 1995 due to problems with the GE engines they specifed. I recall going by Boeing field in July 1995 and seeing a 777 with BA livery but w/o engines.
Using contempories of the 747-100, both the DC-10 and L-1011 had significant delays in delivery. The L-1011 was substantually delayed due to problems with their RR engines, financial problems at both Lockeed and RR. RR had to go into receivership (similar to Ch.11 bankruptcy in the USA), got loads of Pounds from the UK government, RR Automotive was separated from the aircarft divisions, forming different companies. The delays in both models hurt their eventual sales, with Lockheed withdrawing from commercial aircraft in the 1980's, and the DC-10, compounded with early accidents due to manufacturing and operating defects to have never reached the desired competitive level Douglas wanted..
 
trent900
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 4:21 pm

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 24):
So, it took them 3 years 9 months from first order, and 11 months from first flight.

Just because it entered service quicker it doesn't mean it was a perfect aircraft. Boeing did have some major issues ie; overweight, engine problems. In some ways it was 'rushed' into airline service.

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 27):
They just can't accept that Airbuse can do anything wrong!

I think it goes both ways here.

D.
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:31 pm

Quoting Trent900 (Reply 33):
Just because it entered service quicker it doesn't mean it was a perfect aircraft. Boeing did have some major issues ie; overweight, engine problems. In some ways it was 'rushed' into airline service.

Are you suggesting that Boeing has done that before but Airbus has never done that?

Then you might want to read Flight International's report on the 345/346 service entry report after 2.5 years of service.

It's nearly impossible to put a perfect product in service. It's inevitable that manufacturers work out solutions after a product goes into service in the field. They all do that. And that includes Airbus, Boeing, Rolls, GE, P&W.

If you think the 380 will enter into service with no issues, you're being naive.

[Edited 2005-06-03 11:48:57]
 
flyAUA
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RE: Was 747 Delayed Too?

Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:39 pm

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 34):
Are you suggesting that Boeing has done that before but Airbus has never done that?

There is always a first time huh  Wink

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 34):
It's near impossible to put a perfect product in service. It's inevitable that manufacturers work out solutions after a product goes into service in the field. They all do that. And that includes Airbus, Boeing, Rolls, GE, P&W.

Yeah I agree. Not defending anybody and we all know that service reliability is lower at delivery, than when issues are resolved. That's why we have the service reliability curve. It's not about what % it is at delivery, it's about how you set up teams that work closely with the airlines to resolve the issues promtly!

*thinks: I can already see all the "yes but" comments coming from everyone. LOL Big grin*
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