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7LBAC111
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Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:58 pm

And it is just that - informed speculation.

Have a friend doing some work at NCL this past few weeks, and he has mentioned to me that he saw a lot of AA (or American themed) literature when he was there, and rumours were hinting at NCL-JFK.

I think we've discussed this before, and whether AA can make it work.
With CO's amazing success with their UK regional to EWR services, is AA making a steal for the one arguably significant UK regional airport without US scheduled service?

Or is ity another US based carrier? CO perhaps?

Any thoughts.

7LBAC111
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
 
cornish
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:04 pm

I've heard the AA NCL rumour for a while now. It was long expected that CO would be the one to start up any NCL-US service given their track record, but with them opening a number of other routes of late, it would seem logical that AA would be approached to open up service. It wouldn't surprise me if some regional funding has been found (a la the CO EDI service) to encourage someone to fly there, so perhaps AA is going to give it a go with a 757, with enough money being put up locally to make it worthwhile for them, and if the loads/yields are there then p[erhaps to get it to stand on its own two feet in future....
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
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B742
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:06 pm

That would be great news, if it did happen! Big grin

Would it be an all year round service or just seasonal?

I'm suprised that CO hasnt jumped for NCL yet!

I'm still wishing for the return of AA at BHX  Sad

Rob!
 
MAAN
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:06 pm

My company handle the security for all US carriers in the UK and the only AA start-up rumour I've heard is for LPL. Having said that, the first they mentioned CO to Bristol to us was when they needed extra screeners urgently and wanted MAN-based staff to fly down there for a month GLA works well enough for AA, they could make it work.

[Edited 2005-07-25 14:08:26]
Last flight: DFW-LGW/AA/763. Next flight: MAN-CDG/AF/A319.
 
7LBAC111
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:08 pm

Quoting MAAN (Reply 3):
I take it you mean to ORD?

No I mean JFK. Had I mean't ORD, I'd have typed O R D, to make ORDBig grin  sarcastic 

7LBAC111
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
 
MAAN
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:09 pm

Yeh I spotted what I'd done and edited...after slapping myself in the face.

/retard
Last flight: DFW-LGW/AA/763. Next flight: MAN-CDG/AF/A319.
 
geoffm
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:10 pm

Quoting 7LBAC111 (Thread starter):
With CO's amazing success with their UK regional to EWR services

That's debatable, at least for some posters here. Did you see the thread on how "poorly" BRS is doing, despite the fact it's only been going for a couple of months?

Geoff M.
 
7LBAC111
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:13 pm

Quoting Geoffm (Reply 6):
Did you see the thread on how "poorly" BRS is doing, despite the fact it's only been going for a couple of months?

Funny, I considered that thread while I was typing this one.

I have no stats nor access to them, on the BRS service, so couldnt comment myself. However as you point out, it's only 3 months old. Lets see how it pans out when the school holidays kick in.

7LBAC111
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
 
cornish
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:24 pm

Quoting 7LBAC111 (Reply 7):
Funny, I considered that thread while I was typing this one.

I have no stats nor access to them, on the BRS service, so couldnt comment myself. However as you point out, it's only 3 months old. Lets see how it pans out when the school holidays kick in.

Did CO get any incentives for the BRS service - if so then they can make money on the routes while the actual numbers are quite poor. As has already said it takes time to build up a niche service, but if the bookings show an upward trend then that will enocurage an airline to persevere.

NCL will probably be very similar. I would be pretty certain that NCL would not be a high yield route by any means - containing predominantly leisure traffic rather than business and little cargo demand. If so then incentives could make it worth an airline to "give it a go" and see what happens.

Having said that, I would have thought there wer other European destinations that would make sense to AA before NCL, but perhaps they've seen what CO have done and decided to do go where they have yet to go.
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
Billy
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:28 pm

The AA opportunity is a function of the range of the 757.

CO did not get any significant deal from the regional development agencies, though they did get a lot of discounting from the airport - however, this does not greatly contribute to a route's profitability. The RDA int he South West funded the extra check-in desks that the service required.

Seems to me like AA is having a go at CO-type territory.
 
cornish
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:32 pm

Quoting Billy (Reply 9):
CO did not get any significant deal from the regional development agencies,

Thanks for the clarification Billy. I knew they got incentives for EDI, but didn't know what the deal was with BRS.
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
HT
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:34 pm

Quoting Geoffm (Reply 6):
.. how "poorly" BRS is doing ..

Does CO´s operation of a B752 out of BRS with its 2011m-rwy have any weight restrictions ?
-HT
Carpe diem ! Life is too short to waste your time ! Keep in mind, that today is the first day of the rest of your life !
 
Billy
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:35 pm

Cornish,

I think that the SW RDA does not really incentivise air service in the way that the Scots, Irish or Welsh do. They have their own issues in the deep south that they need to resolve and air service does not have the priority that it has been given in the other regions. However, they can invest in infrastructure, hence the check-in desk bung.
 
boysteve
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:29 pm

This is interesting, as NCL is currently the UK's fastest growing regional airport.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/tyne/4501191.stm

I would have thought that NCL has a higher potential for passenger numbers than BRS, with the latter being only about 100 miles from LHR down the M4, NCL is much more remote as a regional operation.
Would such a flight also have a BA codshare?
 
Skymonster
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:32 pm

AA @ NCL? It'll never work - they don't have brown ale in-flight!  Wink

A
There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots
 
HT
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 2:48 am

Quoting Skymonster (Reply 14):
they don't have brown ale in-flight!

BYO: Bring Your Own - and drink up before entering the U.S. & the USDA confiscates it ...  Smile
-HT
Carpe diem ! Life is too short to waste your time ! Keep in mind, that today is the first day of the rest of your life !
 
aa777jr
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 2:59 am

Why does AA want to fly to NCL and not BHX? They think they can make NCL work?

Regards.
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
richardw
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 3:02 am

How many JFK-NCL sectors could they do per week, may be reasonably good aircraft utilisation. BA and AA flight connections at LHR aren't that simple, until T5, T1 to T4 for BA and T1 to T3 for AA.
Is NCL weather slightly warmer than NYC in the winter, the AA crew would certainly have something to tell their friends about their stopovers at NCL.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 3:53 am

It will be interesting to see if AA does "take a page from the CO book" and does try a JFK-NCL flight, the 757 would be the right aircraft to open the route with, and AA does seem happy with its 757 operated BOS-MAN and BOS-SNN routes that were launched last year and this year.

CO has been quite successful with its flights connecting the regional UK airports with EWR: BHX, MAN, GLA, EDI and BFS are doing well, the jury is still out on BRS and STN was dropped (prematurely) after 9/11 and has yet to be re-instated. Many thought that NCL would be added to the CO network but it has not yet happened, probably for the reasons stated above, the incentive package offered by NCL to CO was probably not interesting enough for CO to launch the service.

My question is whether AA can make NCL-JFK work.....I think that CO would have no problem with making the route a success because it can offer nonstop service to the NYC area (just like AA will offer if this goes forward), but CO can also offer connections out of EWR to just about every major city in the US plus connections to many canadian, latin american and caribbean destination from EWR. CO's strategy with its flights from UK regional airports (and some "smaller" European cities) is that the CO flight is not simply a flight to New York (where a good number of people want to go), but its really a flight to every popular destination is the Americas with one easy connection. I fly BRU-EWR a lot on CO, I have also flown MAN-EWR many times with CO, and a good portion of passengers are connecting to varied destinations - Florida destinations are quite popular with many pax. Out of JFK, AA's destinations are limited - US West Coast, MIA, DFW, the Carib, a couple of other domestic cities, a few Eagle flights, and thats about it. To reach many destinations, a double connection is required and that is not popular with pax. I am not saying that AA cannot make NCL work, but the situation is not exactly the same as what CO offers from the other UK regional airports with their flights to EWR.

It will be very interesting to see if AA gives JFK-NCL a try, and if its a success for them.
 
MAAN
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:20 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 18):
but the situation is not exactly the same as what CO offers from the other UK regional airports with their flights to EWR.

An excellent point, JFK is hardly an AA hub. I would have thought that ORD would have been considered but maybe that would be overkill as a destination from the UK, if you get me. I hear a few north-eastern accents at MAN but not very many  Wink
Last flight: DFW-LGW/AA/763. Next flight: MAN-CDG/AF/A319.
 
Billy
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:22 am

I expect to see more connecting opportunities by AA at JFK. On ehtread mentioned the opening of the new AA terminal at JFK. AA intend to bolster the hub there. If NCL happens then this may be helpful.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:56 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 18):
Out of JFK, AA's destinations are limited - US West Coast, MIA, DFW, the Carib, a couple of other domestic cities, a few Eagle flights, and thats about it.

Very true, the connections are limited. But AA can get most people where they need to go. AA has non-stops from JFK to all the major US/Canada trans-Atlantic markets except Chicago: MIA, BOS, DCA, YUL, YYZ, SFO, and LAX. Then there are all the Caribbean flights, and UK-Caribbean traffic can generate pretty strong yields.

AA is aiming towards O&D with these new services, and limited connections.
a.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:41 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 21):
AA is aiming towards O&D with these new services, and limited connections

Agreed, and O&D works just fine on JFK-LHR or JFK-CDG or other European captials, but is O&D plus limited connections enough for a JFK-NCL flight? The connection possibilities on AA out of JFK to US cities is limited, and I would not count on a lot of NCL-Caribbean traffic, most caribbean traffic from the UK to the carib is done with charter and holiday/package flights, plus pax from the UK headed to the carib are far more intersted in Barbados and Antigua than San Juan and Aruba (being our MIA expert, I am certain that you are aware of that and I am not telling you anything that you do not already know.)

Can JFK-NCL basically work on O&D traffic - we dont know. That is what is so interesting here.
 
ckfred
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:54 am

I would have thought that AA would have looked into adding service to Germany out of ORD, such as Dusseldorf, Hamburg, or Stutgart before adding service out of JFK to a smaller city in the UK.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:58 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 22):
The connection possibilities on AA out of JFK to US cities is limited, and I would not count on a lot of NCL-Caribbean traffic, most caribbean traffic from the UK to the carib is done with charter and holiday/package flights, plus pax from the UK headed to the carib are far more intersted in Barbados and Antigua than San Juan and Aruba (being our MIA expert, I am certain that you are aware of that and I am not telling you anything that you do not already know.)

I agree with your points. Though, at the same time, I still think AA has the basics covered. I don't really think Continental relies heavily on their EWR-OMA, EWR-OKC, and EWR-XNA flights, for example, to fill up these European destinations. Also, AA serves Barbados from JFK.

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 23):
I would have thought that AA would have looked into adding service to Germany out of ORD, such as Dusseldorf, Hamburg, or Stutgart before adding service out of JFK to a smaller city in the UK.

They are looking at Dusseldorf and Stutgart, but from JFK, with 757s. JFK-DUS is actually looking very possible.
a.
 
Billy
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:33 pm

NCL has a market of about 200,000 NYC pax including those using surface to MAN.
 
7LBAC111
Topic Author
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:28 pm

Quoting Billy (Reply 25):
NCL has a market of about 200,000 NYC pax including those using surface to MAN.

Interesting. So will this then impact MAN in any way?

7LBAC111
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
 
cornish
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:32 pm

Quoting 7LBAC111 (Reply 26):
Quoting Billy (Reply 25):
NCL has a market of about 200,000 NYC pax including those using surface to MAN.

Interesting. So will this then impact MAN in any way?

I'd be interested to know how that 200,000 would split between MAN, LHR and maybe AMS. got any more detail Billy?
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
qqflyboy
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:45 pm

No more speculation, AA announced yesterday it will begin service from JFK to NCL in May of 2006. The route will be flown with Boeing 757 aircraft, and will be sold as all coach, similar to the BOS-MAN flight which began last year.

Here's a link to the press release from AA:
http://www.aa.com/content/amrcorp/pr...eleases/2005_07/27_newcastle.jhtml
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
AA767400
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:06 am

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 28):
No more speculation, AA announced yesterday it will begin service from JFK to NCL in May of 2006. The route will be flown with Boeing 757 aircraft, and will be sold as all coach, similar to the BOS-MAN flight which began last year.

Well my former QQ Crew member, Thanks for the info as well as the info from the conference you went to this month. The real question for me is will they add more to that list for spring of next year? And if the much rumored 757 winglet and cabin upgrade will be coming to life any time soon?

By the way QQ, When are you going to proffer for JFK? Or are you content in Lambert?
"The low fares airline."
 
qqflyboy
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:04 am

I'm actuallly based at JFK now. I went from STL to ORD for a few months, then transfered, effective June 1, to JFK. However, I've been out with a fractured ankle since June 3. Won't be back until September if I'm lucky. The only thing work related I've done since then is attend that meeting at LGA. Let me tell you, that was interesting hobbling around from LAS to LGA with a fractured ankle. I have new respect for those that come on board with crutches!
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
738_Driver
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RE: Speculation! - AA To Announce NCL-JFK

Sun Jul 31, 2005 1:18 am

Heidi??? Is that you? LOL

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