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incitatus
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NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 2:57 am

Eliminating JFK-NRT is the beginning of the end for NW's hub in Tokyo. Who wants to connect in Narita when there are multiple nonstops from the US to PEK, PVG, HKG, KIX, NGO, TPE, ICN and now even BKK and SIN? NW might be better off scraping the hub and focusing on Detroit and Seattle as connecting points to Asia. Except for a rock bottom fare, who would want to do NYC-DTW-NRT-SIN on NW instead of going nonstop on Singapore? NRT will go the same way as US-based carriers' hubs in London, Frankfurt and Paris did.
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Lufthansa747
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:00 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
is the beginning of the end for NW's hub in Tokyo.

Care to share some of the stuff you are smoking? NRT and AMS aren't going anywhere. NW is huge at NRT. Perhaps when the 787s arrive, NW will offer more nonstops but IMHO that's it.
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N328KF
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:02 am

NW would get rid of DTW or MEM before NRT.
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roseflyer
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:10 am

I think you are jumping to conclusions after the cancelling of just one flight. I agree with your point that if NW only flies to NRT from its hubs, then the hub at NRT does not serve a purpose because it will require double connection.

However right now NW has a strong hub in NRT with many flights to the US still even though they have dropped some service to ORD and JFK. While there are more nonstop flights from Asia to cities in the United States, there still aren't enough. NW flies to some cities in Asia that have maybe one or two nonstop flights to the United States, but limited connection opportunities. Right now UA and NW are doing a good job by getting people from most large cities in the United States to NRT and then on to most large cities in Asia. This allows for one stop connections. Cities like SIN and BKK are too far for economical nonstop flights to multiple major US cities. Right now they are limited to big cities because of the need for ultra long haul airplanes. There is still enough demand from cities like SEA, PDX, SFO and LAX in addition to NW’s hubs to justify connections in NRT. These cities benefit and there is feed available to other smaller markets.

NW is just giving up in JFK. They will let AA take the O/D traffic on the route and UA to connect people within Asia in addition to the Japanese carriers. NW was never the best suited airline to serve the JFK-NRT route. First off they don't have a first class cabin, which hurts them on this route because there are a lot of premium flyers that want more than NW's World Business class. However NW still connects more people through NRT than UA does. UA has some flights through NRT, but also has nonstop flights to other important cities in Asia that NW doesn’t.

Together UA and NW serve the non NRT market in Asia well but they need a good connecting point. Right now they use NRT which works well. However they could accomplish the same thing out of another airport like ANC or SEA if they wanted although they do get a large amount of traffic within Asia due to their privileges to carry passengers from NRT to other destinations in Asia. NW has a lot invested in NRT so it is here to stay. UA benefits from a big presence on the west coast especially in SFO which allows them more nonstop flights to Asia other than NRT with connection opportunities to most cities in the United States.

The only reason for closing the NRT hub would be if operations became too expensive from there and there were enough long range planes of varying sizes (787-747 I guess) to make a hub in SEA or elsewhere work. But that would require investing in creating a hub in the west coast, which is a whole different scenario. All in all this is unlikely to happen.

[Edited 2005-09-08 20:22:50]
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airbazar
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:10 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
NW would get rid of DTW or MEM before NRT.

That may be so but it doesn't mean it's a good idea. Incitatus makes a good point though. Why would anyone want a 2 connection trip when they can get a 1 connection or non-stop on a competing airline?
 
FlyHoss
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:11 am

While it's true that new flights bypass NRT, you are assuming that the traffic is static (no growth). I believe the new non-stop flights, such as CO's EWR-PEK, will stimulate growth.
IMHO, you're way, way off on this one, Incitatus.
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Lufthansa747
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:16 am

If NW flew DTW-BKK, then everybody would have to connect at DTW.

Presently, you can fly DTW/MSP/LAX/SFO/SEA/PDX/EWR/IAH/HNL-NRT and do just 1 connection to BKK.

I don't see any difference. Something like PDX/IAH-BKK won't be happening, so connections are needed anyway.
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desertjets
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:35 am

NW will not scrap its NRT hub anytime soon b/c of the valuable 5th freedom rights. The local O&D ex-NRT has to be good enough for Northwest to continue to invest in the hub, as well as base smaller aircraft (320s then later 757s) in Tokyo.
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N501US
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:42 am

To clarify NW has only suspended JFK-NRT; The door remains open for them to restart the service and I agree with all those pointing to the 787.

NW's ace in the hole is their fifth freedom rights and they will continue to take advantage of them via the NRT hub. Overall, the NRT hub is a profit center for NW and they will not close it anytime soon. I read the arguments regarding the stop at the hub vs nonstop and I don't buy too much of it. I can't speak for specific yields but I think NW's loadfactor in the Pacific is comparable to all of the other carriers.
Fools and thieves are well disguised in the temple and the marketplace.....
 
Trvlr
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 3:47 am

There's a reason why Northwest operates NRT-PVG/PEK/CAN, even though they could fly to China nonstop from the United States.

Aaron G.
 
rwsea
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:01 am

The world doesn't revolve around JFK and NW isn't closing an entire hub because they weren't profitable to NYC. They still do great on the west coast and from their hubs to NRT.

JFK already has nonstop service to most of the cities mentioned anyways, and certainly has plenty to NRT!
 
Braniff727
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:04 am

Quoting N501US (Reply 8):
I agree with all those pointing to the 787.

I seem to remember saying that would be the first 787 route. I could be wrong as I'm heavily medicated at the moment.

Regardless, I think it's stupid to say that because they are stopping 1 out of how many daily non-stops that they should close a base is, well absurd.
Climbing
 
sparkingwave
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:10 am

Narita is situated near one of the most powerful economic capitals of the world - Tokyo. As long as there is active trade and business between Japan and the U.S., it would be crazy to give up this hub.

Tokyo, by the way, is also in itself an interesting tourist stop; I like stopping by there on the way to Seoul. It's like two countries for the price of one (and more frequent flyer miles too).

If NW should give up NRT, then UA would probably have a field day!

Fuel for thought,

SparkingWave
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stirling
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:11 am

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 7):
NW will not scrap its NRT hub anytime soon b/c of the valuable 5th freedom rights

That's it. End of story. At least for 2005.

What about 2025?

When the 787, 350 and 380 have settled into the fleets of the world's airline fleets, airline travel, at least internationally, will have by that time gone through a slight, but no-less important redefinition....

Especially, when it comes to China.
China; it's no secret, they are marching toward being the world's largest economy. As more routes are opened up; how much connecting traffic will transit Narita? How much more traffic can Narita handle?

My question is, currently, how much of that NW traffic at Narita is going to China?
What is the demand? I am gonna say it's probably huge, witnessed by anyone with a wing and prayer trying either to enter the market or expand on what they already have.
Never assume things will always remain as they are. 20 years ago, China was a backwater for the world's airlines. What will another 20 years bring?
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TomFoolery
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:11 am

There is alot of freight that goes through NRT, even on passenger flights. Alot of revenue is generated on those flights from freight alone. This is in addition to the 747-200F's that fly the route in the odd hours. Freight can also connect through NRT from other countries, and has no problem with the layovers, nor asks for upgrades. Easy money.
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B707Stu
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:14 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 3):
Together UA and NW serve the non NRT market in Asia well but they need a good connecting point. Right now they use NRT which works well. However they could accomplish the same thing out of another airport like ANC or SEA if they wanted although they do get a large amount of traffic within Asia due to their privileges to carry passengers from NRT to other destinations in Asia.

ANC? Thanks for the memories of being 13 in 1969 and watching the NW B707-300 arrive from TYO via ANC. ANC is a freight hub, period. It'll never again see the day of being a pax hub to Asia.
 
AA7573E
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:15 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
who would want to do NYC-DTW-NRT-SIN on NW instead of going nonstop on Singapore?

How about somone who lives in DTW or NRT. The NRT hub does not exist to cater to O&D traffic from the NYC area. The NRT hub is a separate operation in and of itself, and interpolating the cancelation of the NRT - JFK service to the overall demise of the NRT hub is foolish.

The NRT hub serves an ample O&D market. Afterall, who would want to fly SIN-NRT-NYC-DTW, when they can just do SIN-NRT-DTW?
See you up front!
 
commavia
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:44 am

I agree with your basic premise -- that as the U.S.-Asia traffic gradually gets segmented and moves more and more towards nonstop flights overflying Japan, that NW's (and UA's) NRT hubs will eventually become obsolete. The key word there, though, is eventually. It will take years. Ultimately, I do think that what happened in the U.S.-Europe market will eventually happen in Asia: flights will generally overfly hubs to reach more beyond-gateway hubs in emerging national markets, frequency and capacity will rise dramatically, and the average number of seats per departure will go down. In other words, airlines will start linking the DFWs, IAHs and ATLs of the world with the PEKs, PVGs and SINs of the world nonstop, with 777s, rather than linking those cities with NRT using 747s and then offering onward connections. Again, though -- I don't think this change will be complete for at least another ten years. It took about 10-20 years to happen across the Atlantic: the first staging using ETOPs 767s began in the early 1980s, and by the late 1990s, the age of the 'Atlantic gateway' at BOS, JFK or LON was over.
 
LawnDart
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 5:13 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
NRT will go the same way as US-based carriers' hubs in London, Frankfurt and Paris did.

Very good analogy...and interesting thread. Where are the LHR hubs of PA/TW (that went to UA/AA)? The CDG hub of TW? The FRA hub of PA/DL? They were costly to operate, especially with change-of-gauge...and the locals preferred the local carriers...

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
NW would get rid of DTW or MEM before NRT.

MEM maybe...

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 3):
Cities like SIN and BKK are too far for economical nonstop flights to multiple major US cities.

With the right equipment, NW could fly SIN/BKK - DTW, and then offer one-stop service to far more U.S. cities than from NRT.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 3):
they do get a large amount of traffic within Asia due to their privileges to carry passengers from NRT to other destinations in Asia. NW has a lot invested in NRT so it is here to stay.

If the yield on additional NRT-U.S. flights were higher (and the costs lower (ie: seperate 757 fleet in NRT not needed)) than providing service to Asian points beyond NRT, why couldn't NW use their NRT slots to add flights to points in the U.S.?

Quoting N501US (Reply 8):
NW's ace in the hole is their fifth freedom rights and they will continue to take advantage of them via the NRT hub.

Are they (honest quetion)? See above regarding yield...how much Japanese traffic does NW get vs. NH or JL? Or are these all people scrambling from inbound U.S. flights? If so - why not scramble around DTW?
 
DAYflyer
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 5:19 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
Eliminating JFK-NRT is the beginning of the end for NW's hub in Tokyo. Who wants to connect in Narita when there are multiple nonstops from the US to PEK, PVG, HKG, KIX, NGO, TPE, ICN and now even BKK and SIN? NW might be better off scraping the hub and focusing on Detroit and Seattle as connecting points to Asia. Except for a rock bottom fare, who would want to do NYC-DTW-NRT-SIN on NW instead of going nonstop on Singapore? NRT will go the same way as US-based carriers' hubs in London, Frankfurt and Paris did.

Perhaps with the 787 on order, and the additional A-330 still to be delivered, this may be what they are planning on doing. And if they do it, others may follow suit.

Quoting N501US (Reply 8):
To clarify NW has only suspended JFK-NRT; The door remains open for them to restart the service and I agree with all those pointing to the 787.

Perhaps they will only modify service by adding additional non-stop destinations to the USA with the 787 fleet?
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gigneil
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 5:20 am

Even from NRT, NW and UA are much cheaper than JL and NH due to their drastically lower cost base.

This attracts the Japanese and local Southeast Asian passenger to their NRT flights.

Its not just for US connecting passengers, although with the 787 expect augmentation of point to point flying.

N
 
TrappedinMKG
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 5:27 am

If you're flying DTW-PEK, you might not want to connect in NRT, but if you're flying NRT-PEK, you certainly don't want to connect in DTW...
 
777D
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 6:22 am

No way will NW dismantle their NRT hub. NW has too much invested at NRT to close down the hub. Perhaps they will open up new non-stops from SEA, LAX, MSP and DTW to points in Asia.
 
incitatus
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting N501US (Reply 8):
Overall, the NRT hub is a profit center for NW and they will not close it anytime soon.

As far as I understand NW currently has no profit centers.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 17):
Again, though -- I don't think this change will be complete for at least another ten years. It took about 10-20 years to happen across the Atlantic: the first staging using ETOPs 767s began in the early 1980s, and by the late 1990s, the age of the 'Atlantic gateway' at BOS, JFK or LON was over.

Can I squeeze the timeline a little bit? The 767 Program Milestones on Boeing's website says that the first commercial transatlantic 767 operation was El Al's in March 1984. 120-min ETOPS from the FAA was only granted in May 1985. By 1994 it was the most widely used aircraft in transatlantic routes. Hub bypassing in US-Asia travel started a few years ago.

Give it another 5 years and NW will have zero business travelers flying between the US and Asia willing to make two connections to get there. That means no traffic from markets outside of the West Coast and DTW/MSP - and IAH/EWR if we count CO. CO is doing its own NRT bypass out of EWR so it shouldn't really count.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 20):
Even from NRT, NW and UA are much cheaper than JL and NH due to their drastically lower cost base.

And what happens when the cheap fares from intra-Asia travelers is all that is left?
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
UAcosCS
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:35 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
Eliminating JFK-NRT is the beginning of the end for NW's hub in Tokyo. Who wants to connect in Narita

I guess the outlook is better for UAL, since their philosophy is to fly on one flight, USA to ASIA, no stops in between.

GO UAL!
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roseflyer
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:51 am

Quoting UAcosCS (Reply 24):
I guess the outlook is better for UAL, since their philosophy is to fly on one flight, USA to ASIA, no stops in between.

I don't really follow what you mean there. UA has a mix of destinations served nonstop from the United States with service from ORD and SFO to a variety of destinations, but UA also has a large number of connecting flights through NRT. UA and NW both have something slightly different to offer. UA caters to the high up business traveler with more nonstop flights to Asia and a first class cabin, while NW serves more destinations within Asia from its NRT hub. Both airlines do well in Asia, but have different philosophies about it. Only time will tell which one works out better.

On the one side though NW did suffer with a lack of demand on JFK-NRT. They have little recognition in JFK since they have a very small presence in New York compared to AA and to a lesser extent UA. Then on the Japanese side, ANA and JAL have better recognition since they are both Japanese carriers. The result is that NW had to offer cheap fares or other incentives to fill up a 744 and it wasn't profitable. This does not hold true for other markets from NRT. NW has more recognition on the west coast to Asia as well as from its hubs. NRT works well for the airline and international routes are the most profitable now, so dismantling NRT would likely be a disaster for NW.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 20):
Even from NRT, NW and UA are much cheaper than JL and NH due to their drastically lower cost base.

I have never heard of this before. Why is it that NW and UA have a cheaper cost base? Is it because they have super streamlined approaches due to the fierce compeition in the United States, or is it extremely expensive to operate out of Japan? Do you have a source for this info?
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
atmx2000
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:37 am

Maybe their SkyTeam partners with hubs at EWR and JFK should pick up the slack.
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Jano
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:04 am

Quoting UAcosCS (Reply 24):
I guess the outlook is better for UAL, since their philosophy is to fly on one flight, USA to ASIA, no stops in between.

You are forgetting one thing. NW is getting their first B787s in 3 years.
The Widget Air Line :)
 
MAH4546
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:09 am

Quoting UAcosCS (Reply 24):
I guess the outlook is better for UAL, since their philosophy is to fly on one flight, USA to ASIA, no stops in between.

Yeah. I guess their Hong Kong-Ho Chi Minh City, Nagoya-Taipei, and Tokyo-Singapore show that.  sarcastic 
a.
 
JFK998
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:33 am

The passenger load factors on the USA-NRT flights on NW are very high in capacity.. I really cant imagine NW scrapping NRT ever..
 
kaitak744
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:37 am

Quoting Stirling (Reply 13):
How much more traffic can Narita handle?

Well, for one of the world's largest hub airports, and only one runway, not much. It probably faces the same runway situations as London Heathrow does.

And to who ever says NRT has 2 runways, it has one, get over it. A cement strip the size of my drive way is not a runway.
 
keno
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:00 am

If I'm not mistaken NW used to operate ICN & PEK nonstop from the US. Is there any plans for them to resume these routes?
 
commavia
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:03 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
Can I squeeze the timeline a little bit?

Your surely can -- I was speaking generally and no doubt got my dates a bit off.

Quoting UAcosCS (Reply 24):
I guess the outlook is better for UAL

IMO, definitely. UA made a brilliant strategic decision in the mid-1990s that it was going to slowly begin lessening its dependence on NRT as a connecting point for U.S.-Asia passengers and begin overflying NRT from its primary U.S. gateways -- ORD, SFO, and LAX (not much anymore, though, for LAX). Smartly, they recognized that if a customer was going to have to make a connection anyway to get from their U.S. base to an Asian city, most -- price and other factors being equal -- would much rather change planes in an English-speaking, American airport than at NRT. (Nothing against NRT at all -- I've effortlessly transferred there twice!) Thus, UA's Asian network is now far more diversified and far less reliant on NRT for connections than NW, who -- to my knowledge -- does not fly any flights to Asian points beyond Japan nonstop.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 25):
UA has a mix of destinations served nonstop from the United States with service from ORD and SFO to a variety of destinations, but UA also has a large number of connecting flights through NRT.

Yes, but their schedule is far more diverse. UA offers nonstop access from the U.S. to China, nonstop to Korea, nonstop to Hong Kong. These are huge markets where customers will willingly pay a premium to fly nonstop, and some will pay a premium -- if they must stop -- to stop in a U.S. airport. NW, OTOH, continues to just route everything through NRT, route everything through KIX, etc., meaning they can -- in many cases -- only offer double-connecting online itineraries up against UA's single connection offerings in the market.
 
Rhino4ever
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:26 am

Think they said this was temporary. Loosing the 747-200 in Guam with the nose gear collapse, they are pulling a -400 to cover other routes as the yield is much better. The -200 was to be parked in a couple months anyway. As the A-330's come this year things will get balanced out.
 
MAH4546
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:33 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 32):
Yes, but their schedule is far more diverse. UA offers nonstop access from the U.S. to China, nonstop to Korea, nonstop to Hong Kong. These are huge markets where customers will willingly pay a premium to fly nonstop, and some will pay a premium -- if they must stop -- to stop in a U.S. airport. NW, OTOH, continues to just route everything through NRT, route everything through KIX, etc., meaning they can -- in many cases -- only offer double-connecting online itineraries up against UA's single connection offerings in the market.

While true, Northwest has the advantage that they have a huge local flyer base in the Tokyo area and are not as reliant on US-connecting traffic as UA is. A healthy amount of their intra-Asia traffic is Japan-originating.

Also, UA SFO-ICN service is now seasonal, so a connection in Tokyo is needed half the year.
a.
 
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centrair
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 12:55 pm

I would say that NRT will not be dropped. It is too important, a pride for the company. The only problem, as many people have stated, is NRT has a capacity limit...one runways isn't enough. The other is point-to-point is becoming more popular. NW used to have PEK, ICN and HKG direct flights but at the time they were not filling up. They needed something smaller than a 744 to do the job.

My image is that when the 787s come around we may see more direct flights to destinations feeding through DTW and MSP. MSP will see flights to NGO, HKG, ICN, PEK and who knows where. We may see increased service from SEA and PDX using A332s. Those flights will continue on to emerging locations. The 744s will start aging and we will see some of them converted but others will still do heavy routes like DTW/MSP-NRT We might see NW cut back to using mostly 787s and A332s for Pacific service. NGO and KIX will become hub-like and be connected by domestic (with limitation) flights like the NGO-NRT flights.

But who knows....I hear that back in the 1960s the idea of a direct flight to Japan was something of a pipedream...had to stop in ANC, GUM, HNL or some gas station in the south pacific.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
Jano
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 1:05 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 35):
had to stop in ANC, GUM, HNL or some gas station in the south pacific

For NWA that was Shemya and not HNL  Wink
The Widget Air Line :)
 
burnsie28
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 1:51 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 13):
My question is, currently, how much of that NW traffic at Narita is going to China?

NRT-PEK is a A332
NRT-PVG is a 747-400
NRT-Guangzhou is a 757-200

Quoting KEno (Reply 31):
If I'm not mistaken NW used to operate ICN & PEK nonstop from the US. Is there any plans for them to resume these routes?

Yes they still have rights to each, and shortly it was has been said NW will restart DTW-PEK.
 
dc863
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 1:53 pm

Shemya I believe was off limits to civil ops back in the Cold War days. Cold Bay would've sufficed for emergency fuel stop.
 
aa777jr
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RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 2:31 pm

Is C172 posting again on this forum?  Smile
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
cslusarc
Posts: 554
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 2:29 pm

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 2:37 pm

I think that NW needs to continue to rethink its strategy at NRT. NW's decision to (temporarily) drop JFK-NRT is just the first step in NW reshaping how it serves NRT.

I would like to see NW move its second daily frequencies from MSP and DTW from its westbound and eastbound banks to create a second distinctively timed bank. I'd like to see these retimed flights arrive at NRT about 11:30a (leaving MSP at 10:10a; leaving DTW at 9:20a). This earlier time would permit these 744s to do same-day returns back to the US, if returning to the US in NW main eastbound bank. Likewise a red-eye from NRT at 9:30p would arrive at MSP at 6:10p or at DTW at 8:10p would permit some 744s arriving in the main westbound bank to do same-day returns back to the US.

FYI:
Today NW's westbound bank (US Mainland->NRT->ASIA) arrives between 4:35p and 5:35p in local NRT time, and departs NRT between 6:20p and 7:25p.
Today NW's eastbound bank (ASIA->NRT->US Mainland) arrives between 1:30p and 2:30p in local NRT time, and departs for the US Mainland between 3:10p and 4:30p.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
Jano
Posts: 760
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2004 1:48 am

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:35 pm

Quoting Dc863 (Reply 38):
Shemya I believe was off limits to civil ops back in the Cold War days. Cold Bay would've sufficed for emergency fuel stop.

Per http://www.nwa.com/corpinfo/upclose/1950.shtml
check 1956 year. It's also mentioned several times in "Flight to the Top" by Kenneth Ruble.

The reason was it was much shorter to NRT via Shemya than via HNL.
The Widget Air Line :)
 
schipholjfk
Posts: 521
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 4:11 pm

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:50 pm

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 4):
That may be so but it doesn't mean it's a good idea. Incitatus makes a good point though. Why would anyone want a 2 connection trip when they can get a 1 connection or non-stop on a competing airline?

I mentioned this same point in an another thread related to the NWA suspension of JFK-NRT rooute. As a Worldperks Elite member I hardly fly NWA on long-hauls anymore. Since JFK is my base, for the last few years I have flown KLM or Delta to Europe and beyond. Why would I or anyone in New York and the East Coast region want to fly "back" to DTW or MSP and then go East again. It was a waste of time! I did use NWA to fly to Asia via the polar route and then make connections at NRT (on-stop). Now that JFK-NRT is suspended, I have no reason to fly NWA especially if flying beyond NRT. Why would anyone want to make two-stop connection when you can fly direct or one-stop to Asian cities and still accrue Skymiles given all the alliances. In my judgment NWA is effectively giving up New York market. And that is a shame!
The fun of flying... love it !!!
 
slider
Posts: 7605
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:55 pm

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 4):
Why would anyone want a 2 connection trip when they can get a 1 connection or non-stop on a competing airline?

Because there will always be cities that NW serves out of NRT that AREN'T served by a competing carrier no matter how many stops.

The 5th Freedom rights that NW has are one of the strongest strategic assets they have. It's an incredibly huge source of revenue, and allows NW to bypass much of the aeropolitical nonsense that hamstrings other carriers.

Moreover, almost any other US carrier would kill to have it.
 
FlyGuyClt
Posts: 1579
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 10:23 pm

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:06 pm

I am sorry but I can't hold my keyboard any longer. This has to be one of the more stupid threads I have ever read on here. NRT is one of the highest yeild, if not the highest yeild market NWA has. I mean DUH ?! ?! NWA has served Japan longer than any other U.S. airline out there. The 5th freedom rights are worth their weight in gold. The flights are packed. NWA has new terminal facilities in NRT that are very customer friendly. There is also alot of point to point traffic as well as connecting. This is one of the crown jewels in the NWA system from a financial stand point. If NWA were ever to "dump" this very profitable franchise from their system. Well, lets just say, the fat lady would be warming up in the back room.

Safe Flying  Smile
Florida Express, Braniff II and ......
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:39 pm

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 44):
This has to be one of the more stupid threads I have ever read on here. NRT is one of the highest yeild, if not the highest yeild market NWA has. I mean DUH ?! ?!

NW does great in NRT now, granted. However, the market is changing. Staging and fragmentation are taking place, just as what happened in the U.S.-Europe market in the 1980s and early 1990s. Before about 1982-83 -- before the advent of the 767 -- just about all flying between the U.S. and Europe went through JFK, EWR, BOS or ORD, with a few exceptions. Then, as the market fragmented, AA started flying nonstop to points deep within Europe from DFW nonstop with 767s, DL started flying from ATL, CO from IAH, etc. The same will happen in Asia. All of the ingredients for it -- longer-range aircraft, a move towards Open Skies, expanded airfield and terminal facilities and capacity-constrained Asian airports.

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 44):
NWA has served Japan longer than any other U.S. airline out there. The 5th freedom rights are worth their weight in gold.

They are worth their weight in gold, now. However, what's it going to be like five, maybe ten years from now, when you have AA, CO and UA, to say nothing of the Asian carriers, linking DFW, IAH, ORD, and other U.S. gateways with markets like PEK, PVG, ICN, HKG, BKK, SIN, etc. nonstop. These markets will skim the high-yield traffic off the top of NRT connections and, as I said earlier, all other things being equal -- an American traveler would most likely rather transit at an English-speaking, U.S. hub than in a foreign country. UA has the right idea -- they still operate a hub in NRT, albeit smaller than NW's, and they still maintain an enormous presence in Japan, but they are slowly transitioning towards more and more nonstop flights to Asian markets beyond Japan. NW should follow suit if they want to maintain their dominant position in the U.S.-Asia market in the long-term.

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 44):
The flights are packed.

Packed does not equal profitable. Based on several posts on this thread, JFK-NRT was going out pretty full every day, but the route is still being "suspended." It's great if a plane is going out full, but it's better if the yields are high.

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 44):
This is one of the crown jewels in the NWA system from a financial stand point. If NWA were ever to "dump" this very profitable franchise from their system. Well, lets just say, the fat lady would be warming up in the back room.

I agree completely, for now. A wholesale shutdown -- or sale -- of the Japan hub, or the Asian operations, by NW would no doubt be futile. I am totally with you there. However, I definitely think that NW needs to begin planning long-term (5-10 years from now) for a transition away from hubbing in NRT and for more flights overflying NRT and linking its U.S. gateways with major Asian markets.
 
FlyGuyClt
Posts: 1579
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 10:23 pm

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:45 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 45):
agree completely, for now. A wholesale shutdown -- or sale -- of the Japan hub, or the Asian operations, by NW would no doubt be futile. I am totally with you there. However, I definitely think that NW needs to begin planning long-term (5-10 years from now) for a transition away from hubbing in NRT and for more flights overflying NRT and linking its U.S. gateways with major Asian markets.

They are my friend. They are. The Beoing 787 will be the perfect airplane for new non stop routes to Japan and / or beyond. Or even by pass NRT. The thing with the "old" hubs in which you speak. They never matched the size of the airplane with the route after all the transformations took place. I think NWA is seeing this and is planning for it with the 787.

Safe Flying  Smile
Florida Express, Braniff II and ......
 
incitatus
Topic Author
Posts: 3376
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:17 am

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 44):
NRT is one of the highest yeild, if not the highest yeild market NWA has. I mean DUH ?! ?! NWA has served Japan longer than any other U.S. airline out there. The 5th freedom rights are worth their weight in gold.

No, they WERE worth their weight in gold. The problem with most airlines and a few posters is that they can't see a few inches beyond their own nose. Over less than a year AA is adding service to 3 new airports in East Asia. How many more services on AA, UA, CO will bypass NRT in a few years? Enough to suck NW dry. But you are right, the flights will continue to be packed - fares will be crap though.

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 46):
The Beoing 787 will be the perfect airplane for new non stop routes to Japan and / or beyond.

Just like the 767 was the ideal airplane to join lots of secondary US cities to the hubs of US carriers in Frankfurt, Paris and London to connect to secondary cities in Europe. It didn't happen.

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 44):
This is one of the crown jewels in the NWA system

If that is the case, NW is doomed.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
JZ
Posts: 425
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 1:55 am

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:21 am

In the next few years, directly point-to-point flights using 777LR or 787 will make NRT less and less important. The economic landscape in Asia will change more in favour of China than Japan. I agree with some of the posts that we will see a fragmentation of the markets just like the trans-Atlantic routes.
 
burnsie28
Posts: 5287
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:49 am

RE: NW Should Scrap The NRT Hub

Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:28 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 45):
They are worth their weight in gold, now. However, what's it going to be like five, maybe ten years from now, when you have AA, CO and UA, to say nothing of the Asian carriers, linking DFW, IAH, ORD, and other U.S. gateways with markets like PEK, PVG, ICN, HKG, BKK, SIN, etc. nonstop.

Boeing 787

Quoting Commavia (Reply 45):
However, I definitely think that NW needs to begin planning long-term (5-10 years from now) for a transition away from hubbing in NRT and for more flights overflying NRT and linking its U.S. gateways with major Asian markets.

Why, use the 787's and still maintain NRT, NW picks up a lot of traffic from Japan there, its not all people connecting, which people seem to think that all the pax come from the US.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 45):
UA has the right idea -- they still operate a hub in NRT, albeit smaller than NW's,

Boeing 787 will allow NW to compete with UA on these, with lower costs, and the right sized plane. NW can keep the NRT strong with the 747's and A330's. Thus NW will be even a stronger storm.

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