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dogfighter2111
Topic Author
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Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:38 am

Hi,

As I have no experience, and only think this is the way it all works then here goes.

With the Upcoming Winter Season etc., does anyone think NWA or DL will emerge from Chapter 11?

The way I see it is that there are fewer travelers on many routes over winter, therefore does anyone think that it is possible that the due to the loss of money NWA and/or DL will come out of Ch. 11?

Thanks
Mike
 
7e72004
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:42 am

Both will survive..they will be in bankruptcy for a while...even though the DL CEO says that it will be quick. I would expect the bankruptcy process for both to take at least a year, but in the meantime neither is going anywhere.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
N908AW
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:55 am

Not so fast.
The FAA is having some very concerned opinions about the quality of NW's maintenance. Anybody else reading the Star Tribune today would have read about dozens of nosy reporters sniffing around at the FAA. (That's not the point). The point is, the FAA has cited NW on 100+ cases of borderline unsatisfactory mx, most noteably when they found a dead bird in the engine of a DC-9 on what was supposed to be the 'final pre-flight inspection' by the co-pilot. My friend's mom told me when she flew back PHX-MSP on a 752, only one lavoratory was working. Not all that fun. I find it slightly possible that a license revoking could happen.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
 
MarshalN
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:08 am

I guess the union busting did have a negative effect on quality after all!
 
cloudy
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:11 am

Quoting N908AW (Reply 2):
Not so fast.
The FAA is having some very concerned opinions about the quality of NW's maintenance. Anybody else reading the Star Tribune today would have read about dozens of nosy reporters sniffing around at the FAA. (That's not the point). The point is, the FAA has cited NW on 100+ cases of borderline unsatisfactory mx, most noteably when they found a dead bird in the engine of a DC-9 on what was supposed to be the 'final pre-flight inspection' by the co-pilot. My friend's mom told me when she flew back PHX-MSP on a 752, only one lavoratory was working. Not all that fun. I find it slightly possible that a license revoking could happen.


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It is hard to tell, without some inside knowledge, whether the FAA is really more concerned about Northwest than about other airlines. The media has a history of blowing this kind of thing out of proportion. Once can find all kinds of incidents and violations by any airline of any size. But that does not mean that the system is unsafe - anymore than the large number of speeding tickets being written as we speak means that the highway system is unsafe.
 
m404
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:35 am

One story has it that sympathetic flight attendents were throwing all kinds of stuff in the toilets to put them out of order. Any news on that?
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
georgiaame
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:00 am

RE: fewer travelers. Been to Atlanta Hartsfield lately? Crammed, wall to wall with bodies in all concourses, virtually all day long. It wasn't like this on Sept. 10, 2001, and then anyone had access to the terminal area, not just people with boarding passes. People are flying, people will continue to fly. What Delta will look like in a year or two, well, my crystal ball is as good as anyone's. Probably United. How long have they been in "bankruptcy" and still flying as if nothing has happened?
"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
 
positiverate
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:02 am

Quoting N908AW (Reply 2):
The point is, the FAA has cited NW on 100+ cases of borderline unsatisfactory mx, most noteably when they found a dead bird in the engine of a DC-9 on what was supposed to be the 'final pre-flight inspection' by the co-pilot.

That's why you do a walkaround, to look for anything that may be amiss. Maybe they had a birdstrike on the inbound and no one knew.

Quoting N908AW (Reply 2):
My friend's mom told me when she flew back PHX-MSP on a 752, only one lavoratory was working.

Second hand...hardly a good source.

Quoting N908AW (Reply 2):
I find it slightly possible that a license revoking could happen.

And you base this on...? Do you work for the FAA and speak from experience?
 
Braniff727
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:18 am

Yeah I think alot of the 'information' coming from the media about any airline should be taken with a grain of salt. The media is extremely biased and is against anything capitalist, so that would include large corporations (except of course the ones they work for). Here in the Detroit area, the Fox affiliate is about the television equivalent of the Weekly World News. If someone on an airplane somewhere in the world could call them and say "I had a bumpy flight on Air Kreplakistan" that would translate to "Northwest MD-70 Falls Out of Sky, Kills all 3000 aboard. More at 10:00."
Climbing
 
aogdesk
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:35 am

At some point, a major airliner is simply going to cease to exist. Not sure if it'll be NW, DL or anyone else, but experts agree that there's simply too much capacity. If NW continues on their path of destruction within the ranks, they'll be the first to go. You simply can't hold employees jobs over their heads day after day, then expect those same workers to put on their happy faces and make miracles happen for the customers.

"Low Cost" is going to be defined as "terrible service but a rock bottom prices". Everyone's alright with that apparently.
 
DCrawley
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come B

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:46 am

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Thread starter):
With the Upcoming Winter Season etc., does anyone think NWA or DL will emerge from Chapter 11?

Yes, I do think they will.. but not for some time. And that's not counting their chances of survival.

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Thread starter):
The way I see it is that there are fewer travelers on many routes over winter, therefore does anyone think that it is possible that the due to the loss of money NWA and/or DL will come out of Ch. 11?

Once again, I do think they will emerge from CH11.. kinda a retorhical question, eh?

Quoting N908AW (Reply 2):
The point is, the FAA has cited NW on 100+ cases of borderline unsatisfactory mx, most noteably when they found a dead bird in the engine of a DC-9 on what was supposed to be the 'final pre-flight inspection' by the co-pilot.

LoL.. do you really think there was much bird to be seen? You give a general situation, no details.. was it dark out and with the flash light the co-pilot could not see the blood or a few feathers? I don't know if you've ever seen a bird get sucked into a jet engine, but there aren't very many discernable features of the bird left..

What's the "final pre-flight inspection"? You mean the pre-flight walkaround? I didn't know there was ever a final one unless the aircraft is headed to the desert.. LoL, sorry, couldn't help myself.

Quoting N908AW (Reply 2):
I find it slightly possible that a license revoking could happen.

I highly doubt this. If anything, they will be fined. The implications for revoking their operating certificate are huge.. like I said, I think they would just get a big ol' fine.

Here are some links..
FAA fines -- the facts
Current fines (press releases because they are over $40k)

and if you think NW is the only airline that has some "whoops" moments..
ACA fine

I'm a VERY strong believer in good maintenance practices in everything from a Cessna 150 to a 747. I think if it's as extreme as it sounds, give 'em a fine.
-d

[Edited 2005-10-03 03:47:53]
"Weather at our destination is 50 degrees with some broken clouds, but they'll try to have them fixed before we arrive."
 
Evan767
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:54 am

I would give Delta about a year to emerge. Their restructuring plan sounds great; increasing the international (big moneymaking) flights by 30%, retire and simplify some of the fleet, actually start charging employees for flights, and taking away some employee benefits (don't think I am being selfish because my mother is a DL employee and I know how it feels but we think anything is OK to keep our company going strong). Good luck Delta.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
N908AW
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:09 am

Quoting Positiverate (Reply 7):
Second hand...hardly a good source.

You really think a Mayo liver doctor flying to the Scottsdale hospital for a couple days would enjoy making something like this up? She barely knew what aircraft she was on. LoL.
Here's the article for the FAA thing.
http://www.startribune.com/stories/1778/5646290.html

Quoting DCrawley (Reply 10):

I highly doubt this. If anything, they will be fined. The implications for revoking their operating certificate are huge.. like I said, I think they would just get a big ol' fine.

In that case, it's yet another thing on their daily-growing bill.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
 
positiverate
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:13 am

Quoting N908AW (Reply 12):
She barely knew what aircraft she was on. LoL.

Exactly...you just proved my point. I'm also betting she really didn't have a grasp of the situation.
 
N908AW
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:14 am

Quoting Braniff727 (Reply 8):
Yeah I think alot of the 'information' coming from the media about any airline should be taken with a grain of salt. The media is extremely biased and is against anything capitalist, so that would include large corporations (except of course the ones they work for).

Well, NW used to be the darling of the Star Tribune.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
 
N908AW
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come B

Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:15 am

Quoting Positiverate (Reply 13):

Exactly...you just proved my point. I'm also betting she really didn't have a grasp of the situation.

She might have had a grasp of the toilet seat she had to wait in line to use...A broken lav is a little bit more noticeable for the pax then you seem to imply...

[Edited 2005-10-03 04:21:15]
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:53 am

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Thread starter):
With the Upcoming Winter Season etc., does anyone think NWA or DL will emerge from Chapter 11?

NWA will emerge successfully because NWA is going to SERIOUSLY restructure the airline. NWA mainline is going to end up a shell of its former self. The new Express subsidiary they are talking about will absorb thousands of their very highly paid pilots at dramatically lower payrates. Same for flight attendants.

Delta has always been a very employee friendly company to work for. If Delta is to restructure successfully, there are going to have to be major changes in work rules and compensations to bring our costs more in line with the LCC's. Delta has historically been very slow in implementing personnel related changes.

NWA's bankruptcy is going to change the entire industry. They are going to restructure that airline to be prosperous in the environment in which we all find ourselves. NWA has never been a really employee friendly kind of company. Their management has always been willing to impose Draconian measures on its personnel to make more money.

I think Delta will survive, but we are going to have to accept major changes in the way we operate. MAJOR MAJOr changes, the likes of which we have never seen before. People thought 7.5 was bad. Hold on folks.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
tinpusher007
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:08 pm

US Airways was supposed to be dead years ago. The deck was stacked completely against them...and look at them now. NW and DL will be just fine. Different after BK, but fine nonetheless.
"Flying isn't inherently dangerous...but very unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
 
jr
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:29 pm

Quoting GeorgiaAME (Reply 6):
RE: fewer travelers. Been to Atlanta Hartsfield lately? Crammed, wall to wall with bodies in all concourses, virtually all day long. It wasn't like this on Sept. 10, 2001, and then anyone had access to the terminal area, not just people with boarding passes.

That does not mean they are making money. After all, those passengers that were going through their now closed DFW hub have to go through somewhere else. And they did have a bunch of passengers at the DFW hub... it just wasn't making any money. I hope their restructuring is done well and they come out stronger. Good luck DL.
I've flown on 9V-SPK.
 
AwysBSB
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:36 pm

I hope DL & NW don’t make the same thing of US & HP: each one is able to overcome its situation alone.
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:56 pm

Quoting GeorgiaAME (Reply 6):
Probably United. How long have they been in "bankruptcy" and still flying as if nothing has happened?

Delta's bankruptcy will definetly NOT be like UA. United took almost a year before the announcement of TED, then another 4 months to implement, and that was really their first major restructuring. Delta in the first month has already announced retirement of one fleet time and increased retirement on 2 others. They've also re-done their schedules tremendously, Cities that had RJ's that didn't need them no longer get them, some RJ's dumped others moved to higher yield markets. International flying increased by 30%. All in the first month of bankruptcy, yeah i think they'll be just fine.

Quoting Aogdesk (Reply 9):
but experts agree that there's simply too much capacity.

Tell that to Mike Boyd.

Quoting Aogdesk (Reply 9):
Everyone's alright with that apparently.

Yeah, I'm good with it. It means I'll actually be able to Afford to fly. I don't need a five course meal when I'm hopping a DRO-DEN segment or DEN-MEM, so what's the point?

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):

NWA will emerge successfully because NWA is going to SERIOUSLY restructure the airline.

NW is doing more toward the employee/labor side of things. Already laying off 1500 flight attendents (which were recalled from furlough a couple months ago), dumping AMFA, and cutting out the Avro flying completely (ASE is gonna be screwed after this winter unless UA picks up XJ).

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
Delta has always been a very employee friendly company to work for. If Delta is to restructure successfully, there are going to have to be major changes in work rules and compensations to bring our costs more in line with the LCC's. Delta has historically been very slow in implementing personnel related changes.

At least Delta is focusing on cutting costs and improving efficiency in other areas, unlike some other airlines who have gone straight to giving employees the shaft.
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
dl757md
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:23 pm

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
If Delta is to restructure successfully, there are going to have to be major changes in work rules and compensations to bring our costs more in line with the locus's

Not sure what company you work for but I just dropped from 6th in the majors in pay to 10th. I make less than my AMT peers at Southwest, Jetblue, and Airtran. I'm not 100% sure but I think you FAs are pretty much in the same boat as are the ramp and most administrative positions. The only group really still out of line at Delta is the pilots who earn over 50% of the payroll at Delta.
I agree DL should have made these changes a long time ago but I'm not sure how much more they can get out of the rest us at this point. We've got mechanics leaving in droves. It's just too easy to beat the compensation on the outside.

DL757Md
757 Most beautiful airliner in the sky!
 
AMS
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:29 pm

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 11):
actually start charging employees for flights, and taking away some employee benefits (don't think I am being selfish because my mother is a DL employee and I know how it feels but we think anything is OK to keep our company going strong). Good luck Delta.

You got a point, however keep in mind that DL Buddy passes, where most DL employees get 6 a year are very profitable for DL.

Regards,
AMS
 
HPRamper
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:38 pm

Quoting Positiverate (Reply 13):
Exactly...you just proved my point. I'm also betting she really didn't have a grasp of the situation.

That is a baseless opinion. Even the most moronic passenger knows that when there is tape across the lav doors that say "out of order", they don't work. Kinda hard to forget details of that story.
 
Braniff727
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:38 pm

Quoting N908AW (Reply 14):
Well, NW used to be the darling of the Star Tribune.

What decade would that be? I honestly cannot remember an article coming from that (toilet)paper with a positive spin on Northwest in ages. In my opinion, as well as a growing percentage of America, newspapers, along with the 'mainstream' media are not trustworthy. They publish or air what fits their agenda (big corporations are evil).

If the FAA fines NWA, or if there is some official action taken against the airline by the FAA I will be more than happy to say that the Star Tribune was right, but until that day comes it's all speculation.
Climbing
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:49 pm

Quoting TinPusher007 (Reply 17):
The deck was stacked completely against them...and look at them now

And that would be?

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
NWA's bankruptcy is going to change the entire industry. They are going to restructure that airline to be prosperous in the environment in which we all find ourselves. NWA has never been a really employee friendly kind of company. Their management has always been willing to impose Draconian measures on its personnel to make more money.

You bet it will. The Draconian measures you speak of currently include replacing it's employees with Chinese imports. The company's proposal is to have the Asia-US flights will be staffed with cheap flight attendants from China, to which they will fly the trunk routes domestically.

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
NWA will emerge successfully because NWA is going to SERIOUSLY restructure the airline. NWA mainline is going to end up a shell of its former self. The new Express subsidiary they are talking about will absorb thousands of their very highly paid pilots at dramatically lower payrates. Same for flight attendants

Well they're furloughing 1400 flight attendants this time around, and possibly another 3,760 next year. 400 pilots will go this year and another 1,260 next year if the company gets what they want. The pensions will be squashed along with a majority of it's employees. All the investigations in NWA will produce nothing and the senior officers and Board members will be counting the millions they looted from the employees

Quoting M404 (Reply 5):
One story has it that sympathetic flight attendents were throwing all kinds of stuff in the toilets to put them out of order. Any news on that?

That happens all the time, whether in the union is in negotiations or not. I remember years ago, I was talking to a UA flight attendant in HKG, she had worked for Eastern before and told me about a rumour that was going around, towards the end of the Lorenzo years, to have a massive blowout extravaganza, in that the flight attendants would blow the escape slides on the aircraft in attempt to ground fleet and shut down the airline. Apparently that never happened. Haven't heard anything like that at NW, but with what the management is doing to it's employees, there's not telling what some employees could do. They had security ageants escort the AMFA employees off the lot and FAA officials were walking the terminals at DTW the day of the strike.

So in short, yes NW and DL wil survive, but with out the good, American empolyees that make the airlines work
Made from jets!
 
767Lover
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:52 pm

Those of you who are predicting that DL's time in Ch 11 will be (relatively) swift because of fast restructuring are forgetting one key issue: The creditors have a LOT to do with the pace of a Chapter 11 process, namely because the creditors have to approve the company's plan of reorganization (POR) and the terms (how much they will get from the deal) before the company can emerge from Ch. 11. Creditors can hold this process up, especially when there are different groups of creditors fighting over their share of the pie.
 
airlinespotter
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:24 pm

Quoting AwysBSB (Reply 19):
I hope DL & NW don’t make the same thing of US & HP: each one is able to overcome its situation alone.

And may I ask what is so WRONG with US & HP situation? by the way, I hope DL and NW will emerge from chapter 11 also.
 
dogfighter2111
Topic Author
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:41 pm

Thanks for all of the replies guys. All of you helped me answer the question.

Thanks
Mike
 
ckfred
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:51 pm

Slightly off the subject, but has anyone noticed that newspaper, TV stations, and networks that hate captialism and big corporations are owned by big corporations, such as Time-Warner, GE, Disney, Viacom, Gannett, Knight-Ridder, and the Tribune Co.?
 
Co757
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:55 pm

Quoting Aogdesk (Reply 9):
At some point, a major airliner is simply going to cease to exist. Not sure if it'll be NW, DL or anyone else

If you want to think of it like that. NW or Delta will survive, They are just now Going in the Battle of Bankruptcy, So they Are pretty Much protected. It will be United who has there neck above water, and sink Slowly, Again. NW/Delta are now Protected by the Courts and they will Milk it , Like United Did, Until Someones Dead, and they can show the Courts their Re-organization plan. If NW/DELTA milk it like united, they have till Mid 2009....
 
Co757
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:10 pm

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
NWA will emerge successfully because NWA is going to SERIOUSLY restructure the airline



Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
NWA's bankruptcy is going to change the entire industry

I totally agree. NW has never let anything get in there way. Example. They never match fares to Competitors, and the Competion recends. They ran Vangaurd in the Ground, Almost Bankrupted Midwest Express, Have put ATA on their Toes, And Spirit has Backed off In DTW. Now its come to the point of Money and the Future. The Mechanics are History. I'm not trying to sound Negative. My Mother is An Ex- North Central/ Republic, Current NW Supervisor In Anchorage. She know's NW now says 26% Paycut or She and many others will be replaced , like many others except DTW, MSP, or MEM, And She is Ready to say yes to it, Seeing what Happend to Mecahincs. Hate to Say it but NW will get what they want and have set the standard for Legacy Carriers, Basically saying Unions aren't Shit!, Strike? Or Paycheck?.... Very Sad, But Times have Changed. If jet Fuel was $28 a Barrel All airline Employees would Get A raise.
 
Geo772
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 5:11 pm

With Delta $14billion in debt I would have thought the process would take a long time. I would have thought that for a business to emerge from Chapter 11 it would have to have proven itself to creditors. Now theoretically if I were a creditor to Delta which i'm not fortunately I would want the company to be in a position to repay me what it owes. For Delta to be in a position to pay back $14 bilion I would estimate that it would never come out of Chapter 11 for the simple reason it would be virtually impossible for a loss making carrier to turn it around that far.
Flown on A300B4/600,A319/20/21,A332/3,A343,B727,B732/3/4/5/6/7/8,B741/2/4,B752/3,B762/3,B772/3,DC10,L1011-200,VC10,MD80,
 
FlyGuyDTW
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:31 pm

Quoting N908AW (Reply 14):
Quoting Braniff727 (Reply 8):
Yeah I think alot of the 'information' coming from the media about any airline should be taken with a grain of salt. The media is extremely biased and is against anything capitalist, so that would include large corporations (except of course the ones they work for).

Well, NW used to be the darling of the Star Tribune.

Probably treated them as poorly as they do their employees!  Smile
 
AwysBSB
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:54 pm

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 28):
And may I ask what is so WRONG with US & HP situation? by the way, I hope DL and NW will emerge from chapter 11 also.

US & HP reduced their flight offer before and after the merger, but their situation is somewhat acceptable because their hubs are okay. If DL merges with NW, probably CVG and MEM will be withdrawn by them because the former hub competes with DTW and the second with ATL.
 
N501US
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:06 pm

Quoting N908AW (Reply 14):
Well, NW used to be the darling of the Star Tribune.

You are kidding, right? The only time I can rememebr NW even being close to a "darling" was maybe (and that is a stretch) the Wall Street Journal during the Donald Nyrop days when NW made consistent profits prior to deregulation.

WCCO, The Star Tribune, the Detroit Free Press etc have had a field day bashing NW over the years since the Republic merger.
Fools and thieves are well disguised in the temple and the marketplace.....
 
whitehatter
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RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come B

Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:14 pm

Quoting Geo772 (Reply 32):
With Delta $14billion in debt I would have thought the process would take a long time. I would have thought that for a business to emerge from Chapter 11 it would have to have proven itself to creditors. Now theoretically if I were a creditor to Delta which i'm not fortunately I would want the company to be in a position to repay me what it owes. For Delta to be in a position to pay back $14 bilion I would estimate that it would never come out of Chapter 11 for the simple reason it would be virtually impossible for a loss making carrier to turn it around that far.

Depends on the actual makeup of the debt.

Much airline debt is leveraged against equipment and can be termed 'operational' debt. Mainly loans and bond issues which cover the items an airline needs to operate, such as aircraft and facilities. It's the 'historical' debt which is the killer as that is liablilty incurred as a result of operating losses or premature fleet upgrades before the operational debt has been written down.

If it is mainly operational debt then that debt repayment is factored into the day to day budgets. However if DL is also carrying historical debt, almost like a huge credit card balance run up by not covering its day-to-day operations with revenues, then DL is going to be in the crap. It's that borrowing or overdraft debt which is the killer, as it's not factored into the life cycle of equipment and capital returns. Being unable to tackle that debt would render them liable to liquidation, to recover any value left in the assets of the company.

How I see it anyway.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
jetdeltamsy
Posts: 2688
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2000 11:51 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:05 am

Quoting Co757 (Reply 31):
Basically saying Unions aren't Shit!,

Due to competition with LCC's, the unions have simply overpriced the services of the members. The carriers can (and must) do their jobs much cheaper if they are to continue operating.

I really don't think NWA's goal is to crush the unions per se, it's to crush the payrates. I think NWA would really like to have their mechanics still on the job. Afterall, NWA lost centuries of experience when they let the AMFA go, which hurts. But the AMFA is as inflexible as they come, with the members blindly following the leadership right down the toilet.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
skymileman
Posts: 577
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2001 2:32 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:29 am

NW needs to improve its customer service dramatically if they ever want to become competitive again. They have some of the worst service in the industry. At least Delta has a good reputation on their side.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5022
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:47 am

I dunno about that, both have missent my baggage...and on my last DL flight they were letting people sleep across the entire seat rows, with no seat belt, on the MD-80. Safe practice, I think not.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15100
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:54 am

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 29):
Slightly off the subject, but has anyone noticed that newspaper, TV stations, and networks that hate captialism and big corporations are owned by big corporations, such as Time-Warner, GE, Disney, Viacom, Gannett, Knight-Ridder, and the Tribune Co.?

Talk to Noam Chomsky about that. Or read "manufacturing consent." His take, IIRC, is that they are often liberal on social issues that maintain the status quo of poverty, but they will not report bad things about their own companies or the companies of their board members, and it's why he believes (falsely so) that there are lots of nuclear accidents not being reported, because the nuclear plants are built and often run by the same companies who run the media.

You must also understand that the vast, vast majority of journalist are liberal pro-union, and if you were to fire every one for every slanted article, you'd have no staff. So you pick and choose who they are allowed to "slam" and encourage them to do so, letting them take out their venom on corporate opponents or those you don't care about one way or another, or "victims" that sell a lot of papers. And one thing they've learned is that slamming the airline with the local fortress hub doesn't hurt the paper, the airline, etc. Nobody reads the Detroit paper outside of Detroit, for example, and Detroit residents have little choice in air carriers, so even bad news won't stop them from flying.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Evan767
Posts: 2198
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:52 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:35 am

Quoting AMS (Reply 22):
You got a point, however keep in mind that DL Buddy passes, where most DL employees get 6 a year are very profitable for DL.

Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention. Delta is raising the buddy pass fares, and since we have so many buddies contanly travelling on flights this is also a smart move.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
BOS2LAF
Posts: 353
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:21 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:41 am

Quoting Aogdesk (Reply 9):
At some point, a major airliner is simply going to cease to exist. Not sure if it'll be NW, DL or anyone else, but experts agree that there's simply too much capacity.

Yes. Thats why the industry as a whole is posting record load factors. You solved the problems of the airline industry. Congratulations.  Yeah sure
 
satx
Posts: 2781
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2005 7:26 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come B

Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:00 am

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 4):
But that does not mean that the system is unsafe - anymore than the large number of speeding tickets being written as we speak means that the highway system is unsafe.

No, but the high number of auto-related fatalities might imply that there is more work to be done in this area.

Quoting Positiverate (Reply 13):
I'm also betting she really didn't have a grasp of the situation.

Yeah, it's hard to understand when a lavatory is out of commission. Must take a rocket scientist like yourself to figure it out.

Quoting Braniff727 (Reply 8):
The media is extremely biased and is against anything capitalist, so that would include large corporations (except of course the ones they work for).

Sources? Examples? Do you have anything at all to backup your wild-eyed accusations?

Quoting Braniff727 (Reply 24):
In my opinion, as well as a growing percentage of America, newspapers, along with the 'mainstream' media are not trustworthy. They publish or air what fits their agenda (big corporations are evil).

Sources? Examples? Do you have anything at all to backup your wild-eyed accusations?

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 29):
Slightly off the subject, but has anyone noticed that newspaper, TV stations, and networks that hate captialism and big corporations are owned by big corporations, such as Time-Warner, GE, Disney, Viacom, Gannett, Knight-Ridder, and the Tribune Co.?

Sources? Examples? Do you have anything at all to backup your wild-eyed accusations?
A300 319 320 321 332 333 388 B727 732 733 735 737 738 739 742 743 744 752 753 763 764 772 77E 77L 773 77W 788 789 C200 700 900 DHC2 DC9 E145 170 175 190 F100 MD81 82 83 87 88 90 | 38 Lines 44 Craft 58 Ports
 
FCYTravis
Posts: 1172
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:21 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:00 am

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 37):
Due to competition with LCC's, the unions have simply overpriced the services of the members.

Again, this is an oft-repeated myth. Southwest is the most heavily-unionized air carrier in America with some of the highest wages for its Employees.

They just cut the fat everywhere else, don't spend zillions on unprofitable fee-for-departure high-CASM RJ flights to everywhere, etc.
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
 
Alitalia744
Posts: 3800
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 8:22 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:50 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 39):
I dunno about that, both have missent my baggage...and on my last DL flight they were letting people sleep across the entire seat rows, with no seat belt, on the MD-80. Safe practice, I think not.

Because this never happens on HP or US or AA or CO or anyone else? C'mon be realistic bro.
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:15 am

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 44):
Southwest is the most heavily-unionized air carrier in America with some of the highest wages for its Employees.

This is an oft-repeated myth. Sure, Southwest is profitable, but that is due largely (perhaps entirely) to their very smart and very prudent fuel hedging, not their forward-looking cost trend guidance, which is actually quite bad. If Southwest's fuel costs were as high as its peers, it would be decidedly less profitable then it is now, if it was profitable at all.

The other airlines -- especially AA and CO -- have done a fantastic job of "cutting the fat everywhere else," as you say, and both are still paying into their employees pensions, and were profitable in Q2.

Generally, the problem with the legacy carriers is not their "fat" everywhere else. The legacies have all cut costs dramatically since 9/11. The problem is fuel. If AA, CO, and even UA, were paying for fuel today what they did on October 3, 2001, or -- even more dramatic -- October 3, 2000, all of them would be reporting humungous profits.
 
aogdesk
Posts: 748
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 2:26 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting BOS2LAF (Reply 42):
You solved the problems of the airline industry. Congratulations.

Wow. Some of the egos on this board easily dwarf the physical size of the A380. I can't decide whether its humorous or just plain pitiful that 'aviation management MAJORs', still obviously in school seem to be infinitely more knowledgeable than insiders with years of experience. Notice, Most High Perdue STUDENT, that I simply echoed the sentiment of MANY airline experts, that wasn't my magic wand driven analysis.
I don't care what field you're in, pretending that your educational background affords you the ability to judge others will land you flat on your a**.
 
BOS2LAF
Posts: 353
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:21 am

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:03 am

Quoting Aogdesk (Reply 47):
Wow. Some of the egos on this board easily dwarf the physical size of the A380. I can't decide whether its humorous or just plain pitiful that 'aviation management MAJORs', still obviously in school seem to be infinitely more knowledgeable than insiders with years of experience. Notice, Most High Perdue STUDENT, that I simply echoed the sentiment of MANY airline experts, that wasn't my magic wand driven analysis.
I don't care what field you're in, pretending that your educational background affords you the ability to judge others will land you flat on your a**.

When did I ever bring up my educational background in my post? Maybe it appears in my profile, but you make it sound like I was flaunting it in my post in some sort of effort to portray myself as holier-than-thou. I wasnt.

And personally attacking me instead of addressing the fact I present doesnt do much in the way credibility.

From the ATA website:

US domestic load factor for 2003 was 72.6%, 2004 projected was 74.4%

Domestic revenue pax miles for 03 was 500 billion, 2004 projected was 550 billion

Domestic available seat miles for 2003 was 689 billion, 2004 projected was 739 billion.

source: http://www.airlines.org/econ/d.aspx?nid=1032

So, domestic load factor is the highest its been since 1946 (78.7%), and its trending upwards. Capacity is increasing as well. If overcapacity were the problem, then you would see downward trending load factors, and airlines would respond by cutting their available seat miles. But that's not happening.

The problem is that legacy airlines are forced to lower fares to compete with LCCs, but they don't have the lower cost structure that the LCCs have (for now). Consequently their costs exceed their income. THAT is whats wrong with the US airline industry. (Whether LCCs will be able to continue to keep their costs low is a topic for another thread)

Alright, so maybe I was an ass in my earlier post, but youll have to forgive my frustration when people raise an argument that just doesn't add up.

[Edited 2005-10-04 01:04:52]
 
B744F
Posts: 2927
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:52 pm

RE: Will Northwest Or Delta 'Realistically' Come Back?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:14 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 46):
Generally, the problem with the legacy carriers is not their "fat" everywhere else. The legacies have all cut costs dramatically since 9/11. The problem is fuel.

Why do none of them "cut the fat" of millions each year to executives?

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