Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
PlaneDane
Posts: 346
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 3:08 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:01 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 49):
Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 45):
Saying that the 777 was delayed is another urban legend on a.net and this time you're the one spreading it, Keesje. I was there on that program and we delivered on time.

I don't know about the delays, but according to BusinessWeek IIRC the 777 was about 100% over budget.

Yes, Joni, that I can believe. It did go significantly over budget.

[Edited 2005-10-11 17:05:54]
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:04 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):

The 777 had delays on bfe and resonance issues, ask BA & UA.

The 773ER; it was promised the ETOPS330 recommendation approved by FAA "sometime in 2004"
http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2003/q4/nr_031015gq&a.html

The 753 had airco / power problems, ask NWA.

The 737NG has a good list of AD's.
http://www.boeing.com/news/feature/737rudder/
http://www.b737.org.uk/faaad.htm

Only recent examples I know (recent new types.. 767 in 1980?)

All not big issues, normal practice, happens all the time, good aircraft, but pls stop the "Boeing always delivers" saga.

.. & saying this I realize it will never happen..

This is a reach even for you. I think the issue is whether the type designs achieve promised payload/fuel burn/reliability specifications. I think you realized this and then quite deliberately distorted the issue to include what are more or less ordinary events that are associated with the introduction of new aircraft anywhere.

Does any carrier, anywhere on the planet want ETOPS 330? Not that I am aware of. Until someone actually needs it and plans to buy gobs of airplanes, what it is point of spending millions on certification for an operation that is non-existent today?
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 14542
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:20 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 52):
Does any carrier, anywhere on the planet want ETOPS 330? Not that I am aware of. Until someone actually needs it and plans to buy gobs of airplanes, what it is point of spending millions on certification for an operation that is non-existent today?

Ask Boeing they made a big event out of it.

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 45):
Saying that the 777 was delayed is another urban legend on a.net and this time you're the one spreading it, Keesje

Marconi IFE-> production stall -> damages -> BAS & Marconi out of the business?
 
boeing767-300
Posts: 626
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 11:23 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:23 am

Believe what you like with Leahy but it was not that long ago saying "there was going to be no response to the 7E7" as it was "Just a Chinese copy of the A330" and Airbus did not need to respond.

Well how times change. Airbus has belatedly realized that the A330 needs a complete redesign to be competitive and in doing so have acknowleded in the success of the 777 and particularly 77W and 772LR that "its twins for economics and performance and quads for extra weight and fuel burn. A concept Airbus themselves kicked of in the early seventies.

As someone suggested on this site its no longer 4 engines 4 long haul its "2 engines 2 make money" and in the the 2 engine game Airbus has got some catching up to do especially in the long range/payload area.(Twins)

This will be an interesting battle and if A350 is half as good as the PR on an unfinalised and ever changing design then Boeing will have a good challenger.

But I suspect Qantas will go 777/787 and the only thing that could change that is price given the extremely good bargaining position QF has over the A380 delays. Time will tell.......
 
B707321C
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:42 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:30 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 36):
The US has substantial experience in the technology and applications that are required to produce all composite aircraft. The F117, the B2, the Starship....we been there, done that, bought the tee shirt, seen the movie.

Correct But, technology is basically available to everyone today. The key for succes lies in the ability for boeing make use of this technology and build the 787 economically. Building the F117, the B2 etc did not have the same contrains. I just wouldn't wear that t-shirt yet.
 
MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:33 am

Quote:
Speaking to Flight International after the launch last week, chief operating officer John Leahy said the “biggest problem” he faces is “our ability to ramp up A350 production. If I could get more, I could sell more

Ok, I am going to raise the BS flag on this one, you have got to be kidding me with a comment like this, the airplane does not come out for another 4-5 years, plenty of time to pump out more aircraft.....
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 14542
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:42 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 54):
Just a Chinese copy of the A330

Well.. lets say this, you won't see the difference from further then a mile..

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 54):
A330 needs a complete redesign

New materials & cosmetics IMO, airframe, systems etc are improved versions of the a330, not a redesign..

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 54):
the success of the 777 and particularly 77W and 772LR

Take a good look at those orders, the operators & financing...

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 54):
Airbus has got some catching up to do especially in the long range/payload area.(Twins)

Yes, however they own the URL market at this moment.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 54):
A350 is half as good as the PR on an unfinalised and ever changing design

Ever changing design.. do you realize how many changes the 7e7/787 "shark" went through ? everyone positive on another improvement. Already 4 radically different versions are offered before first flight: expensive & not shown before IMO.
 
Slarty
Posts: 302
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:23 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:55 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 56):
however they own the URL market at this moment

Did they invent the internet too?

 rotf 
 
Dougloid
Posts: 7248
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:44 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:02 am

Quoting B707321C (Reply 54):
Correct But, technology is basically available to everyone today. The key for succes lies in the ability for boeing make use of this technology and build the 787 economically. Building the F117, the B2 etc did not have the same contrains.

True....the economics will drive the success of the 787 project and military cost plus projects are not analogous in that respect. You gotta figure that Boeing would probably not have made such a leap unless they figure there's a big payoff in performance and lower production cost somewhere in there.

However what I was referring to was a track record for being able to produce large carbon fiber composite aero structures that have been proven in service over time. No doubt that also includes an accumulated fund of practical knowledge in serviceability and repair to structures. That's a big technology and engineering advantage. Also, having a pool of people who are well versed in working with the stuff on a daily basis is quite valuable.

The effects of carbon fiber dust are dangerous to the lungs...DAC required a rubber fume mask like a painter uses if a drill bit so much as touched carbon fiber...I was watching Top Gear and they toured the Koenigsegg auto works in Sweden...these guys were sanding the stuff without masks...
 
B2707SST
Posts: 1289
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 5:25 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:04 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 56):
Ever changing design.. do you realize how many changes the 7e7/787 "shark" went through ? everyone positive on another improvement. Already 4 radically different versions are offered before first flight: expensive & not shown before IMO.

The 787 has gone through three public phases: the inital 764ER lookalike, the "shark tail" design, and now the final exterior configuration. Boeing said all along that the shark tail was a concept image and was subject to final revision based on CFD and wind tunnel analysis. Calling these "radically different" is ridiculous. Likewise, the three variants currently on offer (-3, -8, -9) have a very high degree of commonality, and Boeing will save in the long run by defining them in parallel instead of separately.

The A350, on the other hand, has gone through actual radical transformation over the last 18 months. First there was no need for an A350 at all; Leahy and company clearly said the A330 was good enough, the 787 was a "rushed and ridiculous" "Chinese copy," etc. Then we got an A330 with 787 engines and system tweaks for about $2 billion, which met with a lackluster reception. Then we got an aircraft with more substantive progress for a few billion more, and now we're presented with a $5-6 billion "all-new" A350 that really isn't all-new; only the empennage and RR engines are clean-sheet, while the rear fuselage and wing will be modified and the GE powerplants are borrowed from the 787.

I'm sure Airbus is looking at its logistics in case A350 demand turns out to be very strong. However, the A350 has 150 orders in the bag and 5 years until first delivery. Given that the A340 backlog is dwindling and orders are slow, the A300 and A310 are trickling out, and A330 orders are likely to drop off as customers switch over to the A350 or 787, there should be plenty of room in Toulouse.

In short, this sounds like a little chest-puffing and me-too-ism when compared with the 787, which faces a genuine supply squeeze due to unprecedented demand.

--B2707SST

[Edited 2005-10-11 18:15:45]
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:05 am

Keesje,

Answer the question: why should Boeing spend millions on certification that no customer has a current application for?

[Edited 2005-10-11 18:06:28]
 
B707321C
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:42 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:11 am

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 55):
Ok, I am going to raise the BS flag on this one, you have got to be kidding me with a comment like this, the airplane does not come out for another 4-5 years, plenty of time to pump out more aircraft.....

I think Airbus has a valid point, I am sure that planning the production is as complicated has the plane itself. Airbus would not be doing their job, if they haven't start planning the production and assigning capacity already. Boeing is doing the exact same thing. Nothing to get funny about.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:15 am

I do not dispute that they could actually be squeezed to produce these aircraft in the quantities demanded. But as 2707SST points out, it is amusing to hear Airbus make these claims about an airplane for which there was no need for until very recently.
 
MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:24 am

I can imagine what is going on at Airbus right now, "Mr Leahy, we have British Airway on the line, they would like to purchase 100 A350 aircraft. Oh tell them to call back in a couple of years, we can not sell them the aircraft right now."
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:25 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 3):
I would further add that it also implies that 'because A350 will sell faster than we can make em' then there won't be the performance issues we had with A345 A346 and dare I say it A380.

No it doesn't. You made that up in your head.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
This seems to be the purest nonsense - the thing hasn't been designed yet, and already he's talking about the production rate.

I assure you, they're already beginning the production logistics for it.

Duh.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
That leaves time to build a complete extra new production plant if they care to.

But then they wouldn't necessarily be able to sell all that capacity, making it a waste of money.

N
 
UAMAYBACH1239
Posts: 213
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2004 12:46 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:36 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus’s top salesman warns that orders for the newly launched A350 could be constrained by the company’s ability to ramp up production of the twinjet to meet demand.

If it is your job sale planes I can't think of any reason to come out this early and warn airlines on a production slowdown before the plane 1st. model is built.
The A380 was 80% completed before launch customers received the news.
 Cool
 
User avatar
Ncfc99
Posts: 786
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 2:42 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:40 am

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 10):
But we know Boeing will deliver on their promises.

You don't KNOW they will deliver. You HOPE they will deliver. So do I.

According to the boeing website, 118 787's have been ordered in 2005. So that makes the 140 350's order so far quite impressive when you consider the 350 is 2 years behind the 787.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22726
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:49 am

Quoting Leskova (Reply 1):
Hmm... why do I have the feeling that we're currently right in the middle of a transatlantic PR battle?

good call  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 4):
You're entitled to your opinion of course, but Randy is laying on the same levels of BS as John.

Randy is a cheerleader for Boeing, but he tends to be a little less random with his facts. Feel free to disagree, I just call it how I see it.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 25):
Leahy's a great salesman. He knows fear is a prime motivator of human beings, and he's using it for all it's worth.

Now this I'll agree with. Nothing wrong with him being a salesman! But this site is the closest we have to a Groklaw for aviation; we need to point out when *anyone* is shoveling it a bit thick.

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 55):
Ok, I am going to raise the BS flag on this one, you have got to be kidding me with a comment like this, the airplane does not come out for another 4-5 years, plenty of time to pump out more aircraft.....

I agree. If you cannot increase production with a FIVE year heads up, you have no business being in the business of constructing complex structures. If little Embraer can ramp E-jet production like they are, Airbus can ramp A350 production. Look at how well airbus ramped the A320 family production. (And yes, I know slots are constrained for that family, but look at what the production rate is!) In my opinion, on the A320 Airbus line is where Boeing was in 2000/2001. B had trouble getting 737 production above 28/month in late 2000 (or was it early 2001.. I forget). But then again, that was when production was at an all time peak and B was gearing for a downturn and wanted to make *very* sure they really needed to increase production (they didn't, obviously). If A cannot justify the A350 business case for a "spike" in production, that's one thing. All airframes have to adjust to the fact that more and more airlines demand very rapid, short term deliveries of airframes and are no longer willing to stretch out orders longer than the airline's business analysis says is optimal. (e.g, EK!)

Why can't we have a rational discussion on A or B? We all know new design airframes go through quite an iterative phase before they're launched; that's the impact of customer feedback. I applaud Airbus for changing their A350 plan to market demands. My experience working with Airbus and Boeing is that Airbus listens to customers and vendors more than Boeing does. Oh, they can get just as arrogant as B, but they will listen when someone educated says "I have a better idea." B is still a bit of "not invented here". (e.g., every engine vendor told Boeing that their assumption of fuel savings was off for a bleedless design. Boeing implied "your competitors say different," but were clever enough to not actually lie...) But that is vendor negotiation.

Quoting Slarty (Reply 57):

Did they invent the internet too?

 rotfl  Did A hire Al Gore as a consultant?  duck 

Lightsaber
 
gearup
Posts: 514
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 9:23 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:54 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 34):
Sorry Keesje, you have very little credibility here with your constant anti-Boeing/American posts.

Speak for yourself PHXinterrupted! As for Leahy, I admire him for the nerve he has speaking as he does. He could live in Randy's left ear and rent out his right! What he says though does have a lot of credibility, after all it's not that difficult to compare expected + actual orders against maximum factory throughput. I know a Toyota saleman who says the same thing all the time, 'If I could get 'em from the factory I could sell 'em'. I guess nobody wants to wait 6 months for a Matrix or 12 for a Prius so they buy something else. Hey, it might be a good source of sales for the 787! Can't get a production slot for a 350 so buy a 787, of course that works the other way around also!

GU
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16333
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:56 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 62):
I do not dispute that they could actually be squeezed to produce these aircraft in the quantities demanded. But as 2707SST points out, it is amusing to hear Airbus make these claims about an airplane for which there was no need for until very recently.

Your just trying to cause a childish argument.

The 767 is not selling, something like 10 unbiult aircraft left, Boeing needed a new aircraft to fill that space. Airbus is still selling 330’s, got something like 100 unbuilt aircraft on the books.

The majority of the improvement with the 787 and 350 will come from improvements in engine technology. Something Boeing and Airbus cannot claim to have helped develop.

Don’t think Airbus will try and distance itself from the A330 with the 350 too much. The 330 was a good design for Airbus, clients liked it, selling well, similar to the 737 put a new wing on it, upgrade the avionics and call it a 737NG.

I would not be surprised to see an announcement soon for a 350 style program on the A320, GE have the LEAP56 engine coming, with an improved wing, and A350 systems could see an A320NG launched.

I see a lot of the 787 orders going to airlines needing a fleet upgrade off the 757/767, some 4150 aircraft, if Airbus can capture a minority 25% of that market with the A350, with additional new customers they will be busy for a very long time, so will Boeing.

Lots of pickings for both players.

Both companies are little more than system integrators and project managers that market a product with their brand name with sub assemblies coming from similar or the same subcontractors.
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:01 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 52):
Ask Boeing they made a big event out of it.

If anything held up 330 ETOPS, it was regulatory, not because of Boeing.
 
art
Posts: 4174
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:04 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 36):
The US has substantial experience in the technology and applications that are required to produce all composite aircraft. The F117, the B2, the Starship

Nobody has experience of cost effective production of a large civil aircraft with a composite fuselage. The F117 and B2 had no need to match the production economics of a competing metal aircraft.

Quoting B707321C (Reply 54):
The key for succes lies in the ability for boeing make use of this technology and build the 787 economically. Building the F117, the B2 etc did not have the same contrains.

I echo this above. But if Boeing have got it right that an all composite airframe is cheaper to produce with lower ongoing maintenance costs, the face of civil aviation will be changed. If Boeing can lower costs in both areas, Airbus might find itself deep in the smelly stuff.

Ramping up A350 production? Does Airbus have a choice? OK, to secure some orders, they could supply interim A330/340's perhaps but then they would need to place them when they were handed back. Perhaps that would suit Airbus (more A330/A340 production than would have been achieved if the A350 had been available for delivery more quickly) but it sounds a bit screwy to me. Better to plan to ramp up once you know you have a success story, isn't it?
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16333
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:25 am

Quoting Art (Reply 71):
Better to plan to ramp up once you know you have a success story, isn't it?

Don't know Art, was thinking over shorter journey times the economic advantage of the 787/350 will not be that much better than a 330. The cheaper 330 airframe price might offset the variable cost for 3-4 hr sectors, and give operators an aircraft they can get their hands on soon, rather than wait 5 years for, and a pilot base that could fly both types.
 
TPASXM787
Posts: 1667
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:31 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:28 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 42):
The 737 is also selling good, but it simply a very old basic concept,a nd Airbus will use the technology from the A380 and A350 for an new A320 series sometime.

You seem to forget about Boeing's Yellowstone project. They are intentionally eliminating these planes to focus on new designs. And, just to counterpoint, what makes you think that B won't use 787 tech for a new 737?

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 46):
The A346HGW won't stop the B77W's success story. The quad simply carries too much dead weight and will always burn more fuel. It's quite likely the B77W will double total sales over its rival not very far in the future.



Quoting JetMaster (Reply 46):
The B737NG has been the fastest selling Boeing aircraft family ever, so its basic concept is quite irrelevant it seems. And Boeing will also use B787 technology for a B737 successor...

Spot on.
 
LifelinerOne
Posts: 1653
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:30 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:34 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 16):
It's funny how Airbus and Boeing fans argue here on this website, whereas the bosses at Airbus and Boeing probably go out for drinks together on a regular basis

You know, Airbus & Boeing staff goes along very well. Recently I was on a small party thrown by Stork and there were both some European bigshots of both Boeing and Airbus, coming along great, thanks to the Dutch company Heineken.

In the end they know they need each others to keep them from falling a sleep.

Cheers!  wave 
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20094
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 74):
You know, Airbus & Boeing staff goes along very well. Recently I was on a small party thrown by Stork and there were both some European bigshots of both Boeing and Airbus, coming along great, thanks to the Dutch company Heineken.

Maybe we should organise a big a.net BBQ, get everyone face to face and end all this silly A vs. B crap. You can bring the beer!  yes 
 
MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:40 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 74):
Quoting Gkirk (Reply 16):
It's funny how Airbus and Boeing fans argue here on this website, whereas the bosses at Airbus and Boeing probably go out for drinks together on a regular basis

You know, Airbus & Boeing staff goes along very well. Recently I was on a small party thrown by Stork and there were both some European bigshots of both Boeing and Airbus, coming along great, thanks to the Dutch company Heineken.

In the end they know they need each others to keep them from falling a sleep.

Funny that you mention that, I know somebody from Airbus, he sends me Airbus goodies & I send him Boeing goodies. I met some people from Airbus at the Paris Airshow, I went to the Boeing booth to get them some Boeing goodies & then they snuck in the back to get me some A380 pins..... Pretty Cool!
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:43 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 69):
Your just trying to cause a childish argument.

The 767 is not selling, something like 10 unbiult aircraft left, Boeing needed a new aircraft to fill that space. Airbus is still selling 330’s, got something like 100 unbuilt aircraft on the books.

Whatever. Airbus has abandoned its long term plan in a hurry. The A340, the 4-engine-4-long-haul nonsense, and some 330 sales have been abandoned in what amounts to a mad scramble considering the life-cycle of these products. Your boys Leahy and Foergard and all their swagger and bravado are the reason why Airbus has had to do a very public about face.

The B767 first flew over 23 years ago. It's not a bad time for a replacement. Granted the A330-200 has been kicking its ass since the former flew.
 
JetMaster
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:48 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 77):
The A340, the 4-engine-4-long-haul nonsense, and some 330 sales have been abandoned in what amounts to a mad scramble considering the life-cycle of these products.

Airbus has not abandoned the A340. And which sales for the A330 had to be abandoned? The model has been selling recently like never before.


Regards,
JM
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:54 am

JetMaster,

I am referring specifically to the 4-engine A340-200/300 which will be supplanted by the 2-engine 350. While the 340 may still be on offer, it is hard to imagine someone choosing the 340 over the 350 in most cases.

I believe the A330 (particularly the -200) is a great airplane. But once the 350 becomes available, I think the 350 will almost inevitably absorb some sales that would have went to 330.

Both the 330/340 were supposed to revenue generators for a long time. That is the changed variable that Airbus has to deal with now.
 
JetMaster
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:59 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 79):
I am referring specifically to the 4-engine A340-200/300 which will be supplanted by the 2-engine 350.

No doubt about that, but you didn't specify in your original post.

Quoting N79969 (Reply 79):
While the 340 may still be on offer, it is hard to imagine someone choosing the 340 over the 350 in most cases.

The A350 (as planned at the moment) won't replace the A340-600, so there might be some potential left.


Regards,
JM
 
astuteman
Posts: 7420
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:15 am

Quoting Barbarian (Reply 22):
His main point is that its more difficult to sell an aircraft when you haven't got any to offer until 2013/14, and the competitions higher build rate means that they do.

Which is exactly what Leahy said, if you read the article.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 36):
I'm not sure I agree....composite technology necessary to produce the 787 IS pretty well demonstrated-and that's the only novelty I see here.

Building to price is THE key issue for the 787 - it's list price is very aggressive and indicates considerable "forward pricing". I hope they succeed, by the way....

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
It's not due to be in production until 2010.



Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 55):
Ok, I am going to raise the BS flag on this one, you have got to be kidding me with a comment like this, the airplane does not come out for another 4-5 years, plenty of time to pump out more aircraft.....



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 67):
If little Embraer can ramp E-jet production like they are, Airbus can ramp A350 production

Gotta disagree with all of that - if it was an in-production aircraft like the E-jets or the A320, then it's relatively straightforward to ramp up the production.
However, if 75% of the parts haven't even been designed yet, then there's a shitload of stuff to do before high-volume production can be assured. It would be suicidal to guarantee sales until the supply chain is on a much firmer footing.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 67):
We all know new design airframes go through quite an iterative phase before they're launched; that's the impact of customer feedback

Like I said.......
 
Glareskin
Posts: 1014
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:35 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:21 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 80):
The A350 (as planned at the moment) won't replace the A340-600, so there might be some potential left.

And what about the A340-500? Will there be a A350LR or something comparable?
 
irelayer
Posts: 1136
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:34 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:27 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
This seems to be the purest nonsense - the thing hasn't been designed yet, and already he's talking about the production rate.

It's not due to be in production until 2010. That leaves time to build a complete extra new production plant if they care to.

Yeah I don't get this whole thing either. They have JUST officially launched the program, have they not? Or is that not done yet? All this while the 787 is well into design. I don't get all of this hub-bub over the A350 and how it is going to compete? Wait you'll do what...modify an existing airframe AND promise better performance AND be 2 years behind your main competition? Boeing is contemplating doing that exact same thing with the 747-ADV but they don't go around boasting about it like it is ready to fly.

Last time I checked it took time (and money **cough**) to design and produce an aircraft. Has this somehow changed?

I don't see how the A350 will be anything but second-fiddle to the 787 for a long, long time to come...not to mention a collosal waste of time for Airbus, who should be completely focused on the A380.

-IR
 
EddieGunsmoke
Posts: 232
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:30 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:36 am

Quoting IRelayer (Reply 83):
I don't see how the A350 will be anything but second-fiddle to the 787 for a long, long time to come...not to mention a collosal waste of time for Airbus, who should be completely focused on the A380.

So Airbus should just sit and roll their thumbs while Boeing gets the orders? IMO Airbus even reacted too late, which gave Boeing and the 787 an advantage.
And the A350 is just waste of time?  

[Edited 2005-10-11 20:53:28]
 
User avatar
garpd
Posts: 2557
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:29 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:48 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 72):
Don't know Art, was thinking over shorter journey times the economic advantage of the 787/350 will not be that much better than a 330. The cheaper 330 airframe price might offset the variable cost for 3-4 hr sectors, and give operators an aircraft they can get their hands on soon, rather than wait 5 years for, and a pilot base that could fly both types.

Evidently the airlines disagree with your reasoning, especially NWA.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15787
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:57 am

There are legitment problems for suppliers for such a project. Suppliers don't want to over-invest their capital into facilities, equipment, committment to employees, and if a projected or prepared demand doesn't come through, they will suffer losses. But if not prepared for high demands, then they will have to not go after a contract or rush production then maybe have quality and delivery times suffer, their costs go up and profits down. This has become more critical in recent years with the 'right-sizing' by companies, just in time inventories (so not tying up money and capital in inventory), tighter money management, and so on.
 
Glom
Posts: 2056
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:01 am

Thorben, I sometimes can't tell if you're just making facetious responses to B cheerleaders or you actually believe it.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 42):
Will the 787 be Boeings MD-11?

How could the 787 be another MD-11? Will it fail to meet its targets? That's purely speculative at this point without a shred of evidence to suggest it. Will it be obsoleted by trijets going out of date? I don't think anyone is planning the end of the twinjet era yet.

Quoting Thorben:
I mean look at it: 757 - dead,

Like the A310? Maybe because they're OLD!

Quoting Thorben:
767, basically dead,

Similarly old and being replaced.

Quoting Thorben:
747 - dead, unless they really bring out a new one,

You mean an old aircraft is dead... unless they renew it. Le shock!

Quoting Thorben:
777, will sell a handful of LRs, but the 200 has had its time, the A350 will kill it.

No more than the 787 will kill the A330. And more to the point, the 772ER is more capable than the A350. The A350 has the edge on more limited missions.

Quoting Thorben:
Leaves the 773, which is selling good, but wait for the A346HGW or (if that isn't enough) a stretched A350 in about 2013.

I asked about this a short while ago. The A346HGW will basically give it more range by allowing it to carry more fuel rather than eliminating the problem of higher fuel burn than the 773ER. Regarding the 773ER being killed the by the A350, I find more than a little Airbus hubris in that. Even if the A350 could be made to compete in that market, Boeing aren't just going to continue to develop as well. Boeing development does not end with the 787.

Quoting Thorben:
The 737 is also selling good, but it simply a very old basic concept,

One that has been renewed and has proven extremely competitive.

Quoting Thorben:
a nd Airbus will use the technology from the A380 and A350 for an new A320 series sometime.

Same as Boeing will use 787 technology in a 737NNG, and given that 787 technology is more of a leap, that gives the advantage to B.

Quoting Thorben:
So if the A350 can keep up with the 787, or if the 787 doesn't work as good as intended, or has problems with this all-composite fuselage, then Boeing is in big trouble.

Just like if that super earthquake hits the Pacific North-West Boeing is in big trouble when their factories end up under water. This speculation made from assumptions about assumptions is pointless.
 
User avatar
solnabo
Posts: 5025
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:53 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:09 am

Afraid a mod gonna put a lock on this thread real soon.

Getting nasty if you ask me...

Micke//SE
 bomb 
 
RedChili
Posts: 1440
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:23 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:18 am

Last year, Boeing went public with an optimistic prediction of B787 orders. This year, Airbus is doing it. I will now try to make a comparison between these two events.

I'm not sure if I remember all details wrong, but I'm quite sure that several people will be ready to correct me if I do remember wrong... That's usually the case at a.net!

The Boeing prediction of 200 orders came quite early in 2004. As 2004 progressed, Boeing did not continue to make that prediction. They did not continue with this prediction in October, IIRC.

Airbus, on the other hand, still sticks to their prediction. And now that it's only two and a half months left, they're actually saying that the number could reach 210, so they are actually increasing their prediction.

That leads me to offer two scenarios:

1. Leahy is talking nonsense. Airbus will not get these orders, and his predictions will become a major embarassment for Airbus. And when the customers see only three months from now that the A350 doesn't sell as well as predicted, they will demand huge discounts.

2. Leahy knows something that we don't know. He might have talked to airline executives who have told him that "we're ready to order 20 frames, but we will wait with the announcement until our December board meeting."

Personally, I'm inclined to believe in the last scenario. The reason is that I don't believe that Leahy will risk losing face in such an enormous way. If Airbus has problems with getting orders, I would rather expect him to soften his earlier predictions by saying something like this: "Our board meeting took longer than expected with making the final decision, because of the WTO issues. Because of this, our orders are a few weeks behind schedule." But instead of softening it, he actually raises the prediction!

You are, of course, free to disagree.
 
BR076
Posts: 1032
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 4:10 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:25 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 89):
Last year, Boeing went public with an optimistic prediction of B787 orders. This year, Airbus is doing it. I will now try to make a comparison between these two events.

I'm not sure if I remember all details wrong, but I'm quite sure that several people will be ready to correct me if I do remember wrong... That's usually the case at a.net!

The Boeing prediction of 200 orders came quite early in 2004. As 2004 progressed, Boeing did not continue to make that prediction. They did not continue with this prediction in October, IIRC.

Airbus, on the other hand, still sticks to their prediction. And now that it's only two and a half months left, they're actually saying that the number could reach 210, so they are actually increasing their prediction.

That leads me to offer two scenarios:

1. Leahy is talking nonsense. Airbus will not get these orders, and his predictions will become a major embarassment for Airbus. And when the customers see only three months from now that the A350 doesn't sell as well as predicted, they will demand huge discounts.

2. Leahy knows something that we don't know. He might have talked to airline executives who have told him that "we're ready to order 20 frames, but we will wait with the announcement until our December board meeting."

Personally, I'm inclined to believe in the last scenario. The reason is that I don't believe that Leahy will risk losing face in such an enormous way. If Airbus has problems with getting orders, I would rather expect him to soften his earlier predictions by saying something like this: "Our board meeting took longer than expected with making the final decision, because of the WTO issues. Because of this, our orders are a few weeks behind schedule." But instead of softening it, he actually raises the prediction!

You are, of course, free to disagree.

Good observation I think, if you ask me  bigthumbsup 
 
PlaneDane
Posts: 346
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 3:08 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:28 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 89):
Personally, I'm inclined to believe in the last scenario. The reason is that I don't believe that Leahy will risk losing face in such an enormous way. If Airbus has problems with getting orders, I would rather expect him to soften his earlier predictions by saying something like this: "Our board meeting took longer than expected with making the final decision, because of the WTO issues. Because of this, our orders are a few weeks behind schedule." But instead of softening it, he actually raises the prediction!

You are, of course, free to disagree.

You're probably right. There may be a monster order to be announced shortly that'll put him over the 200 mark easy.
 
mrcomet
Posts: 584
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:32 am

UH. The plane isn't even designed or subcontractors selected. How can there be a delay in parts. Utter BS.
 
Amy
Posts: 1109
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2005 9:48 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:41 am

Glad to hear it.

Anyone else think taht the A350-900 as portrayed in that picture at the top looks really rather wonderful? Kinda like the best bits of the T7 A340 and A330 all in one. Nice big engines.

Anyone know around what power these engines will be putting out? With the A330 topping out at 72,000lbs per trent 700 I'm gonna guess at 80-90,000lbs each.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:43 am

Red Chili is a wise man.
 
NYC777
Posts: 5104
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:44 am

Boeing was right about the market all along and now loud mouth Leahy has to backpeddle on all his bs when Boeing launched the 787.
 
DavidT
Posts: 462
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:37 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:11 am

If I were Mr Leahy I'd be more worried about the lack of orders for A350, and not whether Airbus would be able to keep up...
 
Thorben
Posts: 2713
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:29 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:17 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 87):
Thorben, I sometimes can't tell if you're just making facetious responses to B cheerleaders or you actually believe it.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
 
Glom
Posts: 2056
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:19 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 97):
The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Ah well that's fair enough.
 
milan320
Posts: 821
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 2:25 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:20 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 3):
be the performance issues we had with A345 A346 and dare I say it A380.

A380? You make your assumption on what? Explain?
By all accounts, performance has been better than expected.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 14):
They built a composite section for the Sonic Cruiser, so it's hardly untested.

Yeah, and mitsubishi is building the wingbox isn't it? They've had problems in this area before, namely with the F-22 no?
http://www.dod.mil/transcripts/2001/t08092001_t809dasd.html

Q: The cracks in the tail wing of the F-22 that were written about in today's Early Bird, could you tell us just briefly whether a tail redesign is actually being considered, and whether, if this problem was known about for, I think, a year and a half, as it was written about, whether the cracks were considered in the cost overruns in both the OSD figures and the Air Force figures, this $2 billion versus $9 billion, whether basically those cracks were figured into the costs that were given.

ADM. QUIGLEY: Let me take the second part of the question first. There's no -- you're talking about a series of small cracks, a total of seven inches long, on one of the aircraft in the test program. It's the starboard tail on a single airframe. It is called -- the technical term is called disbonding. This is a composite construction technique for a sophisticated aircraft like the F-22, where layers of composite are bonded together to form a structural whole.

You, as part of the procedure for operating aircraft and certainly for aircraft under development, you're constantly inspecting those airframes for signs of stress or weakness or something like that. In this particular case, you did that via X-ray inspection techniques and discovered the cracks.

There doesn't appear to be a strength issue. It is a producibilitiy issue at this point. However, that airframe that has experienced a series of small cracks on the starboard tail has a somewhat reduced flight envelope. And the other aircraft, the other five aircraft in the test program have been -- they have had no restrictions placed on their flight test envelopes. So the one has, but still, good data is being gathered.

Now, as best we can determine so far, there doesn't seem to be an added cost to the program that cannot be accommodated within existing test program money.

We're not sure what the cause of the cracking is; why haven't we seen it on the other frames. I know the Air Force is very carefully reviewing that data to try to see what was that aircraft put through in its test program that perhaps the other five weren't; was there anything different in the actual producability or the production techniques in that airframe that the others did not? We're just not sure.

We're being cautious and reducing the size of the flight envelope, but -- and there are no restrictions on any others, as I said. And we're still trying to figure out where the cracks are coming from and trying to figure out is this a weakness in the materials, is it a weakness in the production techniques that are being used? Still working on that, and don't have any answers.


-Milan320

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos