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PlaneDane
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:23 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 95):
Boeing was right about the market all along and now loud mouth Leahy has to backpeddle on all his bs when Boeing launched the 787.

Well, the question I would ask is whether Airbus is sticking to its original sales projections for the A380 from when the program was first launched. To me, those numbers are in doubt now that Airbus is predicting the A350 to be a great sales success.

After all, the A350 will travel many of the same routes carrying the same passengers that were supposed to be traveling on the A380.

What does anyone else think?
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:34 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 21):
Amazing for a product that Airbus deemed entirely unnecessary about 24 months ago since the A330/A330+new engines would do the job for the foreseeable future. Wow.

 checkmark 
 
schipholjfk
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:47 am

Okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.... just more hot air! How about selling more A380? Amazing how Airbus is making an about face... I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:53 am

Quoting Schipholjfk (Reply 102):
I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!

No, it's all about having a range of products to challenge your only real competitor. Is Boeing only working on the 787? They seem to be getting close to launching the 747ADV. Why don't they just concentrate on the 787?

Both companies are working hard to try and maintain a roughly 50-50 split in the marketplace.
 
B2707SST
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:58 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 89):
Personally, I'm inclined to believe in the last scenario. The reason is that I don't believe that Leahy will risk losing face in such an enormous way. If Airbus has problems with getting orders, I would rather expect him to soften his earlier predictions by saying something like this: "Our board meeting took longer than expected with making the final decision, because of the WTO issues. Because of this, our orders are a few weeks behind schedule." But instead of softening it, he actually raises the prediction!

I think you're probably right; Airbus likely has deals in the pipeline that they expect will push them over the 200 mark. Getting all these orders firmed up by the end of the year will still be a challenge, though.

That aside, it's still a dumb thing to say. There's little upside if you're right and a whole lot of embarrassing downside if you're wrong. If Airbus does sign contracts for 200 frames this year, that's quite an accomplishment -- but how much prestige does it add if Leahy "calls it" a few months in advance? They might get a few nice press releases, but will it actually generate more orders? Needless to say, if they don't make their target, they look like fools (as Boeing marketing now knows).

--B2707SST
 
whitehatter
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:59 am

Quoting Schipholjfk (Reply 102):
Okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.... just more hot air! How about selling more A380? Amazing how Airbus is making an about face... I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!

Have you got nothing better to add?

The A350 will be the volume product, naturally they want it up front in the PR at the moment. The A380 is in the fallow stage between launch orders and in-service orders that all products go through.

There is nothing in the public domain about A380 developments as it is all about testing and confidential negotiations at the moment, plus customers waiting for some EIS data. So naturally the company is pushing other areas of its portfolio, just as the next product will be the A320 family replacement when the A350 is close to EIS or flying.

Sorry cheerleaders, your devotion to the Trash Airbus cause is worthy of Michael Jackson fans but you can't spin this one no matter how hard you try.

Leahy is a sales genius, get used to it.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:00 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 29):
The 777 was delayed

The 747 ... delayed

777 a lie. You know it, and anyone with an interest in the truth knows it. It was not delayed. It did have EIS problems with engines, and it was overbudget, but neither of those have to do with delays.

747 was delayed 1 month. The link to articles from the time discussing this have been posted in many forums.

Most other B projects have been on time or if delayed, delayed only a few weeks.

ETOPS330 is not relevant as the FAA and other agencies around the world decide on this, not B. Boeing can't force government regulations through, they can only demonstrate their planes meet requirements. They did that with the 773ER, which means they delivered what they promised.

Biased all the way, K, and once again showing your true colors.
 
NYC777
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:01 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 103):
No, it's all about having a range of products to challenge your only real competitor.

It's not about a range of products it's about the PR that loud mouth Leahy belts out saying that the re-engined A330 would do just fine and then doing a 180 and saying that Airbus needs a totally new product out there. They totally underestimated the market for the 787 and it shows since Boeing launched the 787 in 2003.
 
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keesje
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:04 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 89):
The Boeing prediction of 200 orders came quite early in 2004. As 2004 progressed, Boeing did not continue to make that prediction. They did not continue with this prediction in October, IIRC.

No, amazingly Boeing repeatedly insisted on the 200 7e7 sales until the end november 2004..
http://www.katu.com/business/story.asp?ID=72752

A few days later apparently someone intervened & damage control started..
https://www.airliners.net/discussions...eral_aviation/read.main/1841386/6/

[Edited 2005-10-11 23:09:22]
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:09 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 105):
Sorry cheerleaders, your devotion to the Trash Airbus cause is worthy of Michael Jackson fans but you can't spin this one no matter how hard you try.

 slaphappy  LOL! Michael Jackson fans! That's about what the Airbus trashers look like.

"Four engines use twice as much fuel as two engines! I love you all. Now excuse me, I have to get a new nose."
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:10 am

I think they will get a Tam, Air Lingus and possibly EK order, that will put them over the 200, but hegding 100 frames or so on a couple of carriers is asking for trouble......
 
PHXFLY
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:12 am

Quoting Ncfc99 (Reply 66):
According to the boeing website, 118 787's have been ordered in 2005. So that makes the 140 350's order so far quite impressive when you consider the 350 is 2 years behind the 787.

This is not entirely accurate. All the Boeing orders listed on their site are signed contracts and do not include options and announced commitments that haven't been signed yet. Also they booked 54 orders in 2004. Boeing has announced a total of 267 orders/commitments for the 787.

Airbus has announced a total of 110 commitments for the A350. None of those have been signed yet.
 
N60659
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:22 am

In my opinion, amidst all this rhetoric and A vs. B mudslinging, one salient factor is being overlooked - there is a significant upturn in the commercial aviation marketplace. Just a little over a month ago there was an FI article that alluded to the fact Boeing was looking to ramp up production from 2009. Leahy's statement about the A350, in some odd way, parallels what Mike Bair said of the 787 - there are significant orders to be won from a plethora of carriers. Maybe, if we looked towards the prospects the future holds for both manufacturers and concentrate less on which is better aircraft, there could be some positive useful discussion about the merits of each.

-N60659
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:24 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 107):
They totally underestimated the market for the 787 and it shows since Boeing launched the 787 in 2003.

Uhm... Boeing launched 787 in 2004. They had authority to offer in 2003.
 
Slarty
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:33 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 67):
Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 55):
Ok, I am going to raise the BS flag on this one, you have got to be kidding me with a comment like this, the airplane does not come out for another 4-5 years, plenty of time to pump out more aircraft.....

I agree. If you cannot increase production with a FIVE year heads up, you have no business being in the business of constructing complex structures.

I thought the same thing ... sounds like crapola to me also. Only thing I could come up with to defend the point, was that if they were capital constrained, and unable to ensure a multi-year utilization, then they may have to make do with what they have got.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 70):
If anything held up 330 ETOPS, it was regulatory, not because of Boeing.

from wikipedia (great internet resource, btw):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETOPS#Approval_for_ETOPS

"There are proposals (notably by Boeing and ALPA) forwarded to FAA to extend beyond ETOPS 180/207 to ETOPS-240, with a possible 330minute certification on a case-by-case basis; for Antarctic and South Pacific operations. The proposed changes were issued by FAA in 2004 for public comment. However JAA (now EASA ) and other parties including several international organisations do not agree, and a stalemate has ensued. EASA has their own draft rules for flights beyond 180-min diversion time), but a failure to standardize has meant that the 180/207 rating remains the maximum today."

Sounds like another trans-atlantic squabble ...
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 107):
It's not about a range of products it's about the PR that loud mouth Leahy belts out

Well clearly Mr Leahy's doing his job well becuase he's getting right under your skin!  wink 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 110):
but hegding 100 frames or so on a couple of carriers is asking for trouble......

How is this different from Boeing's big 787 orders from Japan?

Quoting Phxfly (Reply 111):
Airbus has announced a total of 110 commitments for the A350.

That's actually 140 commitments they have.

Since I doubt you'll just take my word for it, here's the source:
http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...es_items/10_06_05_A350_Launch.html
 
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keesje
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:42 am

Airbus eyes Indian engineers for A350 workload

Airbus is to establish a new engineering centre in India within the next year and a half in its bid to meet its ongoing development demand in the face of a current shortage of aeronautical engineers within Europe.

Humbert says current engineering recruitment efforts will soon be stepped up for the A350 as recent bottlenecks on the A380 have demonstrated how easily a shortage of engineers can hamper delivery schedules.

Today, around 160 Airbus design engineers are based in its Wichita design centre which was established in 2002, and another 120 are based at the ECAR engineering centre in Moscow. In April this year Airbus agreed to set up a joint-venture engineering centre in Beijing to recruit 200 engineers by 2008.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...n+engineers+for+A350+workload.html
 
art
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:48 am

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 100):
Well, the question I would ask is whether Airbus is sticking to its original sales projections for the A380 from when the program was first launched. To me, those numbers are in doubt now that Airbus is predicting the A350 to be a great sales success.

Interesting observation but I don't really see it panning out. Why should A350 sales take away from A380 since they are utterly different aircraft designed for different roles? If a buyer was thinking about buying a medium sized aircraft, he would have at least the A330/A340/777/787 to choose from, A350 or no A350.
 
PlaneDane
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:30 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 109):
Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 105):
Sorry cheerleaders, your devotion to the Trash Airbus cause is worthy of Michael Jackson fans but you can't spin this one no matter how hard you try.

LOL! Michael Jackson fans! That's about what the Airbus trashers look like.

"Four engines use twice as much fuel as two engines! I love you all. Now excuse me, I have to get a new nose."

See, these are exactly the sort of unnecessary comments people make hoping to further their position. It's rather sad and pathetic, really.

You would serve your Airbus better by providing solid rebuttal in a calm and polite manner, don't you think?
 
dalecary
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:35 am

Does anyone know what the projected annual A350 production rate is? Boeing are saying around 96 787s will be delivered in each of 2008/9 at around 8/month and they have also announced plans that they are looking to expand production from somewhere b/w 11-14/month.
I can't recall Airbus' stated A350 production rates, which will be a clear indicator of how they think it will sell against the 787.
Granted, the 787 project is more advanced and Airbus may need a bit more time yet to match demand to production rates.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 115):

How is this different from Boeing's big 787 orders from Japan?

simple....though QR is a great air carrier, they haven't proven themselves....and the middle east carriers haven't really dealt with a recession with such a large amount of planes in their inventory, where as the Japanese carriers have, and have still been able to succeed!

I think EK will be fine, as they have expanded DXB in ways not thought possible even 10 years ago...
 
Slarty
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:44 am

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 119):
Granted, the 787 project is more advanced and Airbus

This is one thing I can't comprehend ... by most accounts the 787 is substantially superior to the A350 (due to composites), and yet it comes out about 2 years earlier ... why would Airbus commit to an already-known weak performer?

Only reason I can come up with, is that they are waiting for Boeing to fark their capital into a loser (much like Boeing did when Airbus farked major MAJOR capital into the A380), and then turn around with their real innovation?
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:49 am

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 118):
See, these are exactly the sort of unnecessary comments people make hoping to further their position. It's rather sad and pathetic, really.

Why pathetic, I think it's rather funny.

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 118):
You would serve your Airbus better by providing solid rebuttal in a calm and polite manner, don't you think?

a) It's not my Airbus, I don't work for them, I don't own their share, nothing.

b) A lot of people in here don't look for a serious discussion, anyway. I've tried it. They talk like that, I answer like that.
 
Slarty
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:55 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 122):
A lot of people in here don't look for a serious discussion, anyway

Would that include your earlier claim of "commercial terms is the same as operating costs"????

Shame on you.
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:06 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 123):
Would that include your earlier claim of "commercial terms is the same as operating costs"????

No, that one was serious.
 
irelayer
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:10 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 105):
Sorry cheerleaders, your devotion to the Trash Airbus cause is worthy of Michael Jackson fans but you can't spin this one no matter how hard you try.

And your equal devotion as a cheerleader of Airbus' cause is worthy of nothing...

-IR
 
Aither
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:24 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 121):
y most accounts the 787 is substantially superior to the A350 (due to composites)

The A350 will use new metal alloys and black materials.
New metal alloys are extremely efficient and can easily compete with black materials (do some google search). Airbus will use both materials where they think they are the most efficient in term of cost / performance.

[Edited 2005-10-12 01:27:24]

[Edited 2005-10-12 01:29:12]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 11:41 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 121):
This is one thing I can't comprehend ... by most accounts the 787 is substantially superior to the A350 (due to composites), and yet it comes out about 2 years earlier ... why would Airbus commit to an already-known weak performer?

"Totally superior" is rather a misnomer. True the 787 will have a more advanced structure (though the A380 and A350 will use a good deal of GLARE composites in their structures) and the GE NX and RR Trent 1000/1700 engines going on the A350 will be traditional "bleed air" versions, where on the 787 they will be "bleedless" and therefore more efficient.

Yet if you are an existing Airbus A330/A340 operator, the A358 and A359 should be more then compelling enough to consider.

The A359 is barely longer and not as wide as the 772ER, so I am not quite sure how they plan to fit as many people in it. I guess they could go to 17" wide seats and tighten the pitch, but... And the 772ER will have slightly more range and a bit higher cargo payload capacity.

The 787 will offer a wider cabin, so 19" wide seats should (hopefully) be the norm. I appreciate the extra inch (18 vs. 17") the Airbus narrowbodies offer over the 737/757, so I can expect many passengers will like the extra 1-2" the 787 will offer over the A330/A340/A350.

I do see the A358 and A359 putting the hurt on the A340 more then the 772ER. The 772ER already enjoys a 6:4 sales margin and I expect A340 operators to look into the A350 for better fuel savings and lower maintenance costs/better dispatch reliability.

The Middle East (and Airbus) better hope for a huge influx of passengers, since between EK and GF they are putting an incredible amount of capacity into the market - scores each of the A380, 773ER, 772LR, and A350 - in addition to their existing 777, A330, and A340 fleets. That is a lot of people who need to visit DXB and BAH.  Wink
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 11:45 am

Quoting Schipholjfk (Reply 102):
Okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.... just more hot air! How about selling more A380? Amazing how Airbus is making an about face... I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!

A has said for a long time that they would be quite happy with only 2 new customers a year for the A380 after the initial launch orders, they are certainly quite likely to see that come to fruition. they are not expecting an avalanche of A380 orders unlike for the A350/787 size of the market. given how many A380s Fedex (hardly an operation which is known for messing things up) has recently said they expect in the industry, I will bet good money A will find the A380 as succesful as they anticipated.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 11:48 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 121):
This is one thing I can't comprehend ... by most accounts the 787 is substantially superior to the A350 (due to composites), and yet it comes out about 2 years earlier ... why would Airbus commit to an already-known weak performer?

Umm... you're getting A330 confused with its four-holer sibling here... No airline I know of was ever unhappy witn A330... except for QF until they transferred those A330s form short to long haul ops... Which is what the plane is designed for anyways...

...besides... A350 might turn up to be a much more of a 787 competitor than most of the Boeing-biased people wish it to be... just think about what happened to 737 when it became a 737NG and you'll get the idea. A330/340 was Airbuses first venture into the high capacity long haul market. A350 will be their second - and they learned a lesson or two from A340s shortcomings. You can count on that.
 
Johnny
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:00 pm

@ stitch
"I do see the A358 and A359 putting the hurt on the A340 more then the 772ER. The 772ER already enjoys a 6:4 sales margin and I expect A340 operators to look into the A350 for better fuel savings and lower maintenance costs/better dispatch reliability."

sorry stitch,but this is again the old mare that the 777 has outsold its competitor by 6:4...
if you compare the 777 and the 330/340 sales than it looks quite differerent.

in my personal opinion the A350 will have exact 50% market share in the next time.why?

because it seems to be the right size of pax numbers and range to replace the A340-300,330-300,MD11 and the B777-200ER!

Keep my post in mind!  Wink
 
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zeke
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:50 pm

Quoting GARPD (Reply 85):
Evidently the airlines disagree with your reasoning, especially NWA.

NWA better tell all those airlines that fly both the 737-200 and 737-700/800 they have it all wrong. Capital costs do come into the equation. NWA silver 330s look great.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 106):
777 a lie. You know it, and anyone with an interest in the truth knows it. It was not delayed.

Tell Air New Zealand, Boeing is still paying them millions for delays.

Quoting Slarty (Reply 121):
This is one thing I can't comprehend ... by most accounts the 787 is substantially superior to the A350 (due to composites), and yet it comes out about 2 years earlier ... why would Airbus commit to an already-known weak performer?

If you ever get up to the flight deck, have a look at the technical log, in it should have a diagram where any damage to the aircraft is. It is extremely common for baggage loaders, or caterers to have had their equipment too close to the aircraft and put a slight dint in it. With an aluminum fuselage engineers inspect/repair it and then say off you go, not sure how composites would go as they are very susceptible to forces or damage normal to the surface.

Someone was saying recently tongue in cheek that Boeing is change its name to Revell as they are now making plastic snap together aeroplanes. To claim that the 787 is all composite is false, just the same as to say the 350 will be all metal.
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:34 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 131):

Tell Air New Zealand, Boeing is still paying them millions for delays.

So wait...you were the one accusing me of attempting to start a "childish argument."

However you deliberately lie and mischaracterize arguments to make a point that in fact is false.

Do not confuse performance shortfalls of a type design to failure to perform under contract law particularly when the latter are caused by labor strife.
 
M27
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:42 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 131):
Tell Air New Zealand, Boeing is still paying them millions for delays.

I think you might want to go back and consider the context of a couple of posts you quoted.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:54 pm

Seems to me that Boeing makes a careful distinction between orders and commitments, but Airbus doesn't.

Boeing currently lists 174 firm orders for the 787 - complete with the names of the airlines concerned. It has other 'commitments' in respect of which it neither claims orders nor quotes names.

For the likes of Leahy, the terms 'orders' and 'commitments' appear to be interchangeable. For example, it is perfectly clear from press reports that the Qatar 'order' for 60 A350s amounts in fact only to a 'letter of intent' up to this time:-

"PARIS, Sept 10: Qatar Airways signed on Friday a letter of intent to buy 60 Airbus A350 jets, sealing a deal provisionally announced in June. The letter of intent crowns months of negotiations on the $10.6 billion deal and was signed when Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin met Qatar’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thanion Friday."

http://www.dawn.com/2005/09/11/ebr18.htm

That doesn't surprise me in the least - in view of the fact that the A350 design will not yet have progressed to the point where the aeroplane (and its performance) can be specified in legal documentation.

But the fact remains that, in all probability, regardless of what Leahy says, Airbus does not have any 'orders' at all for the A350 yet.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:12 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus’s top salesman warns that orders for the newly launched A350 could be constrained by the company’s ability to ramp up production of the twinjet to meet demand.

Actually, what Leahy states is pretty much common knowledge with regards to suppliers.

Suppliers have been burned so many times by the big manufactures, that they simply won't invest in the equipment/facilities that are required for a surge of deliveries. By the time they have everything up and running at the increased production level, the bottom falls out. They will increase production up to a point (hire new employee's, overtime...) but they really shy away from the "big" investment for unsustainable production.

Cheers
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:15 pm

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 119):
Does anyone know what the projected annual A350 production rate is? Boeing are saying around 96 787s will be delivered in each of 2008/9 at around 8/month and they have also announced plans that they are looking to expand production from somewhere b/w 11-14/month.

Current A330/A340 production rate has just been ramped up to 8 per month, of which 6 are A330 and 2 are A340.
Don't know what anticipated A350 rate is, but I wouls assume it'll start with the current 6/month of the A330
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:23 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 134):
Seems to me that Boeing makes a careful distinction between orders and commitments, but Airbus doesn't.

Come on NAV20, I know you're smarter than that!

Both Airbus and Boeing play the same "numbers" game. On the same day that Leahy said that Airbus has "140 commitments from 9 airlines" for the A350, Baseler said that Boeing had "273 commitments from 23 airlines".

Neither of these numbers represents firm, signed contracts. Airbus's Orders and Deliveries spreadsheet only shows firm, signed orders, as does Boeing's website. You know this, so don't give us the "Airbus makes the numbers up" BS. Both play the same game.

Let's just wait and see how many firm A350 orders Airbus has by the end of the year, compare that with how many 787s Boeing has, then have a bun-fight.  wink 
 
astuteman
Posts: 7418
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:23 pm

Quoting Mrcomet (Reply 92):
The plane isn't even designed or subcontractors selected. How can there be a delay in parts. Utter BS.

You answer your own question.

Don't forget that there will be a significant workshare change to new partners on the A350 vs the A330. They will have to be brought up to speed.
 
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zeke
Posts: 16318
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:04 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 132):
However you deliberately lie and mischaracterize arguments to make a point that in fact is false.

Do not confuse performance shortfalls of a type design to failure to perform under contract law particularly when the latter are caused by labor strife.



Quoting M27 (Reply 133):
I think you might want to go back and consider the context of a couple of posts you quoted.

I am sorry, I am not allowed to say the 777 was delayed, I should rephrase and used Boeing Speak..."Revised delivery dates". End result is the same, the customer didn't get the product when they wanted it.

Have a look at reply 8 & 10 here RE: ANA To Start NRT-LAX Using 777-300ER On OCT8 (by SQ2 Sep 29 2005 in Civil Aviation) it mentions "777 delayed".

I was clearly responding to the context of

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 106):
777 a lie. You know it, and anyone with an interest in the truth knows it. It was not delayed. It did have EIS problems with engines, and it was overbudget, but neither of those have to do with delays.

Anyways, as I said before I think both the A350 and 787 production rates will be high for years to come. With the Japanese Government giving the 787 development 1 billion dollars in aid it should get a good kick along.
 
RedChili
Posts: 1440
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:23 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:38 pm

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 100):
After all, the A350 will travel many of the same routes carrying the same passengers that were supposed to be traveling on the A380.

What does anyone else think?

The A380 is mostly designed for slot restricted airports and operations. I don't think that a carrier planning to buy the A380 will instead switch to an A350. They are destined for totally different missions.

Quoting Schipholjfk (Reply 102):
How about selling more A380? Amazing how Airbus is making an about face... I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!

Firstly, Airbus has said that their target is to sign up one new customer per year. This year, they signed up two new: Kingfisher and UPS.

Secondly, the A380 is in the flight test phase now. Prospective customers are naturally anxious to see the results of those tests before they commit to buying it. If I had been an airline CEO, I would've said that right now is the most risky time to order the A380. Better to wait another year till the flight testing is finished.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 104):
That aside, it's still a dumb thing to say. There's little upside if you're right and a whole lot of embarrassing downside if you're wrong.

That could be. Personally, I would not have said anything like that to the media unless I was 101 percent sure of my numbers.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 108):
No, amazingly Boeing repeatedly insisted on the 200 7e7 sales until the end november 2004..
http://www.katu.com/business/story.asp?ID=72752

A few days later apparently someone intervened & damage control started..
https://www.airliners.net/discussions...86/6/

Ooops! My mistake.

Quoting Phxfly (Reply 111):
This is not entirely accurate. All the Boeing orders listed on their site are signed contracts and do not include options and announced commitments that haven't been signed yet. Also they booked 54 orders in 2004. Boeing has announced a total of 267 orders/commitments for the 787.

Airbus has announced a total of 110 commitments for the A350. None of those have been signed yet.

You are correct that Boeing has far more firm orders than Airbus has today. But Leahy was talking about the situation on 31 December. If he is correct that Airbus will get 200 firm orders by then, and if Boeing does not get a significant number of new orders by the same date, then the A350 has virtually caught up with the B787.

For us mortals without the inside information, we'll just have to wait another 11 weeks before we know the truth.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:49 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 137):
Come on NAV20, I know you're smarter than that!

With respect, Scbriml, the article says, "Airbus has secured 140 order commitments since the commercial launch of the twinjet in December last year. Leahy says that sales will reach “200 to 210 by the end of the year”. He points out that, with Boeing likely to have around 265 787 orders by then, A350 orders will have virtually caught up despite the 787’s significant head start."

If that isn't using the words 'order' and 'commitment' interchangeably, I don't know what is. And saying 'sales' is a downright lie. You're smarter than that too - you know very well that Leahy won't have '200 or 210 orders' by the end of the year. He might have 'letters of intent' for that many - but those are neither 'orders' nor 'sales'.

As I've said before, I don't mind Airbus management trying to fool us, or the public at large, or even the shareholders (I'm not one  Smile). I do get the feeling, though, that they are succeeding in fooling themselves as well.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:56 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 120):
simple....though QR is a great air carrier, they haven't proven themselves....and the middle east carriers haven't really dealt with a recession with such a large amount of planes in their inventory, where as the Japanese carriers have, and have still been able to succeed!

Just ask Boeing if they would have preferred QR to have ordered 60 787s. While you're at it, ask Boeing if they'd rather have an order for 60 from QR or 20 from Primaris? You can also ask them if they'll sell 777s to QR. I think you know the answers.  wink 
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:09 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 140):
Quoting Schipholjfk (Reply 102):
How about selling more A380? Amazing how Airbus is making an about face... I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!

Firstly, Airbus has said that their target is to sign up one new customer per year. This year, they signed up two new: Kingfisher and UPS.

You can add China Southern to that list aswell.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20086
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:19 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 141):
If that isn't using the words 'order' and 'commitment' interchangeably, I don't know what is. And saying 'sales' is a downright lie. You're smarter than that too - you know very well that Leahy won't have '200 or 210 orders' by the end of the year. He might have 'letters of intent' for that many - but those are neither 'orders' nor 'sales'.

I disagree that Airbus does this and Boeing doesn't. As I said in the original post, Airbus only lists firm orders in its spreadsheet and Boeing only shows firm orders on its website. They both "talk" higher numbers than are shown in those places. You can believe the talk or the real numbers, it's up to you.

At the press conference, both Humbert and Leahy were talking about 200 firm orders by end of the year. We don't have too long to wait and find out if those are concrete or jelly.

It does amuse me that so many people get so uptight about the things a salesman says. He's just doing his job!  wink 
 
RedChili
Posts: 1440
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RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:53 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 144):
I disagree that Airbus does this and Boeing doesn't.

If you look at
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/programfacts.html
you can clearly see that Boeing, on their web site, talks about both 174 "firm orders" and 273 "announced orders."

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 141):
If that isn't using the words 'order' and 'commitment' interchangeably, I don't know what is.

Of course it is, but this wasn't a direct quote from Leahy. This was something that the journalist wrote, so there is no way that we can know for sure whether Leahy used these terms interchangeably, or whether the journalist did it on his own initiative.

In all Airbus press releases I've seen, they use the term "firm order" only when speaking about a firm order.
 
Jet-lagged
Posts: 928
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2002 11:58 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 9:14 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 42):
A spychip in every human?

That is already commercial. Check out Digital Angel. I'm sure that RFID chips will be SOP for my grandkids.

Quoting Schipholjfk (Reply 102):
Okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.... just more hot air! How about selling more A380? Amazing how Airbus is making an about face... I would have thought they would have put more energy into selling their flagship aircraft - A380. Now it is all about A350!

Hmmm . . . . don't speak too quickly. But . . . that could prove to be a very insightful comment!


You know, my takeaway from all this, is that European Airbus has embraced a 'Marketing' culture, while American Boeing still wants to believe in an 'Engineering' culture. I think that is funny as you would normally expect that this goes the other way.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:02 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 142):
Just ask Boeing if they would have preferred QR to have ordered 60 787s. While you're at it, ask Boeing if they'd rather have an order for 60 from QR or 20 from Primaris? You can also ask them if they'll sell 777s to QR. I think you know the answers.  Wink

don't get me wrong, I'm sure that Boeing would have loved to received that order.... Wink

I still don't know too much about Primaris to make a comment, but I was making a comparison statement of the Middle East air carriers versus the Japanese Air Carriers... Wink
 
JetMaster
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:05 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 141):
I do get the feeling, though, that they are succeeding in fooling themselves as well.

Ah, another one of these "feelings"...  Yeah sure


Regards,
JM
 
M27
Posts: 409
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:25 am

RE: Airbus Fears A350 Demand Will Outstrip Supply Chai

Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:31 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 139):
I was clearly responding to the context of

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 106):
777 a lie. You know it, and anyone with an interest in the truth knows it. It was not delayed. It did have EIS problems with engines, and it was overbudget, but neither of those have to do with delays.

Which was clearly a response to post No.29 which had to do with the original launch of the 777. The use of Air New Zealand as you did in this response

Quoting Zeke (Reply 131):
Tell Air New Zealand, Boeing is still paying them millions for delays

is clearly out of context with post No 106 (which was a reply to post 29). In other words, Air New Zealand has zero to do with these two posts, and its sad that you try to distort that.

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