Looking at DL and CO expanding heavily on the transatlantic market and UA weaving a new route network to Central and South America (while obviously reducing capacities to Europe), AA seems to be rather hesitant. Ther have not been any significant announcements recently (at least not as far as I remember).

Will we see some expansion soon or are they simply incapable of doing it (lack of equipment or something like that). It seems to me that they will have to do something in order to keep up with the others in the high-yield international markets.

AA is being very conservative, very prudent, very cautious here. In the last four years since 9/11, AA has grown a huge aversion to anything even resembling risk, as they don't have money to play with like years ago. AA cannot afford missteps. Thus, they are letting CO basically do all the route exploration risk-taking, with RJs to Mexico and then 757s to Europe, and then following their lead when the time is right.

AA is more interested in earning a profit with their current network for now, or so it appears. You can bet they have plans for expansion but only when the time is right for them do so. I for one would love to see an announcement about launching new markets, new non-stops, new aircraft order, etc. However they are being cautious and rightfully so.

With that being said any new international expansion, if I had to guess, would be with 757's across the Atlantic (from BOS, ORD or JFK) or down to deep South America (from MIA).

Since 9/11, AA has cut back quite a bit....their SCJ "hub" (or whatever its called) has been scaled back massively...gone are the days AA was flying to TPE, CDG,etc out of SJC. Their only international flight out of SJC now is NRT.

BOS has seen a scale down also..which is unfortunate, maybe if they restart some routes, BOS will be included.

Their latest big route to end is ORD-NGO...the Y yields were good, but because of the loss of the Toyota motors contracts to UA, they decided it wasn't worth it, as fuel costs was eroding profits....maybe if they get a more fuel efficient plane, they will restart that route....cough, cough...787..  

Quoting 764 (Thread starter): nd UA weaving a new route network to Central and South America (while obviously reducing capacities to Europe),

UA isn't weaving anything. In the past few years UA has:

1) Ended JFK-GRU and MIA-GRU
2) Ended JFK-EZE and MIA-EZE; made ORD-EZE seasonal
3) Ended all service to CCS and SCL
4) Made GIG service a GRU tag-on
5) Will end all service to SJO in December; at one point they were flying IAD-SJO, LAX-GUA-SJO, and ORD-SJO.

The only thing they have "added" is IAD-GRU/EZE, but that has simply been moving capacity from one gateway to another.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4): UA isn't weaving anything. In the past few years UA has: 1) Ended JFK-GRU and MIA-GRU 2) Ended JFK-EZE and MIA-EZE; made ORD-EZE seasonal 3) Ended all service to CCS and SCL 4) Made GIG service a GRU tag-on 5) Will end all service to SJO in December; at one point they were flying IAD-SJO, LAX-GUA-SJO, and ORD-SJO. The only thing they have "added" is IAD-GRU/EZE, but that has simply been moving capacity from one gateway to another.

Couple things - first SJO is ending but UA has expressed (in their press release) that they intend to start LIR (my guess is Ted) service in the future. Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed. They have streamlined their operations in South America - in my eyes a set up for possible expansion, and if anything a move towards profitability Do not forget IAD-GRU is flown twice a day on some days of the week. I think what they have done is made South America work for them

Now for other comments - If the US/Brazil bilateral ever changes... i can see AA jumping on 757 or even 738 service to many cities in Northern and Northeast Brazil. Including possibly SSA MAO NAT FOR REC etc... a CO-style-757 could make it as far as MIA-CNF.

'902

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5): Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed.

Incorrect. Before 9/11, UA was flying daily from EZE to JFK, MIA and ORD, all simoultaneously, plus the ORD-MVD sector continued on to MVD. Today, they are down to daily IAD-EZE-MVD, and seasonal ORD-EZE.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5): in my eyes a set up for possible expansion ... and if anything a move towards profitability

Profitability, perhaps, but not expansion. UA has been doing nothing but shrinking in South America for the last five years. First they cut LIM and CCS, then SCL and the GIG nonstops, then GRU and EZE lost flights. UA has largely given up on having any kind of a meaningful presence on the South American continent. They have gone from being the #2 airline to South America to being #4, behind CO and DL.

However, all that being said, if UA feels that they were sustaining losses in South America and couldn't turn the ship around, and thus cutting those routes was the only way to make the continent profitable for them, then more power to them. They are doing what it takes to make money -- good for them.

There have been many rumors suggesting that AA will be the next carrier to make a trans-atlantic expansion, using winglet-equipped 757s on routes out of JFK and BOS (similiar to the approach that CO has used out of EWR)....some routes have been added (ie, BOS-MAN) and JFK-NCL has been announced. AA recently ordered winglets for 20 757 airframes, so this project is in the development stage, time will tell whether AA will be as successful with this strategy as AA's potentional European flights out of BOS and JFK will rely more on O&D traffic (as neither is a true hub city for AA) - CO has had the advantage of launching its new flights out of a major hub.

AA also is looking at using the winglet equipped 757s on certain routes from MIA to Latin America - AA is very interested in launching nonstops from MIA to Brazilian cities such as Natal, Manaus, Recife and San Salvador with the 757Ws, but first progress must be made on the bi-lateral treaties between the US and Brazil which are quite restrictive (there was talk that regulations would be eased on services to cities other than GIG and GRU). Flights to these cities (and others) would surely be a success......AA's track record in Latin America is remarkable.

As for UA, they have dropped most of their Latin American route network - competing with AA out of MIA is a difficult task. UA never really developed a solid hub operation at MIA to support the Latin American departures, and using IAD and ORD as latin american gateways is a very difficult proposition. UA has not grown much accross the Atlantic either - UA has been moderately successful out of IAD, but IAD also has its limitations: its not the strongest hub in the UA network, the entire I-Air situation at IAD did not help UA at that airport, and IAD is not NYC when it comes to O&D traffic. UA has gone through an extremely difficult period with the prolonged bankrupty proceeding which has not helped expansion plans, combined with the well known fact that UA is short on longhaul aircraft........UA's resources are limited and they do have the very important pacific network to maintain. UA may have missed some expansion opportunities, but they have been focused on simply keeping the airline flying.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5): Couple things - first SJO is ending but UA has expressed (in their press release) that they intend to start LIR (my guess is Ted) service in the future

ORD-LIR starts in December. What was 15 weekly flights to San Jose is going to become one weekly flight to Liberia. That is not expansion.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5): Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed.

Yes, it indeed did. United flew daily from Buenos Aires to O'Hare, Miami, and JFK before 9.11. ORD-EZE ended as a result of 9.11. Re-started in October 2004, then suspended again this past June. It is back on in December.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5): Do not forget IAD-GRU is flown twice a day on some days of the week

Only for the purpose of holding US-Brazil slots.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5): Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed.

I remember seeing a pair of UA 747's arrive MIA every morning; one from EZE the other from GRU. I think they went to 777's after that on those routes.

K guys, i was wrong about ORD-EZE. Anyways they have the presence they want (UA does), so i guess that is good. And through GRU they can feed at least some traffic from other South American cities.

'902

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4): UA isn't weaving anything. In the past few years UA has: 1) Ended JFK-GRU and MIA-GRU 2) Ended JFK-EZE and MIA-EZE; made ORD-EZE seasonal 3) Ended all service to CCS and SCL 4) Made GIG service a GRU tag-on 5) Will end all service to SJO in December; at one point they were flying IAD-SJO, LAX-GUA-SJO, and ORD-SJO. The only thing they have "added" is IAD-GRU/EZE, but that has simply been moving capacity from one gateway to another.

United Airlines is simply reorganizing its fleet to be cost efficient in todays market. United Airlines is no longer looking to fly routes for the prestige of it. The days of JFK-LHR are numbered from what has been discussed as of late. United Airlines is getting down to business and working harder and harder in the markets that allow them the greatest cost incentive. Of example is the fact of United Airlines reducing its presence in Latin and South America. Latin and South America, has proven to be less that money making when it comes to the premium cabins. United has taken the 777's that were flown on South America routes, and is now flying them on high yielding and premium service driven routes such as SFO-NGO, SFO-PEK, ORD-PVG.

American Airlines, is doing the same as United Airlines. Only in reverse. American Airlines, has seen that it has a very hard time breaking into the Asian market as is the case with:

BOS-NRT - Slots were granted, and service never commenced.
DFW-KIX - Service started, and was cancelled. To be returned in 2006.
HNL-NRT - Service was rumored, yet has anything to be seen.
ORD-NGO - Service started, and has been pulled from the AA network.
SEA-NRT - Service started, and was ended several years later.
SJC-TPE - Service started, and ended with the eclipse of 9-11.

American Airlines is sticking to its Latin American network, where they are the leader, followed closely by Continental Airlines, and then Delta Airlines. American Airlines has the strongest following of any airline in Latin America. As can be seen, American Airlines is dedicated to Latin America, the same way in which United Airlines is dedicated to Asia and Australia.

KAHALA777

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 2): With that being said any new international expansion, if I had to guess, would be with 757's across the Atlantic (from BOS, ORD or JFK) or down to deep South America (from MIA).

What about HKG? I know that CO, NW, and UA go there......but AA does not. I know they'll be going into PVG next year, but isn't there a potential in HKG as well?

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 12): What about HKG?

American Airlines is more than happy with the Cathay Pacific codeshare at current. Cathay Pacific allows for more than enought lift for American Airlines clientele from North America.

The following is a listing of Cathay Pacific from North America to Asia:

Los Angeles to Hong Kong
747-400 x 3

New York to Hong Kong
A340-600

New York to Vancouver to Hong Kong
A340-300, A340-600, or 747-400

San Francisco to Hong Kong
747-400

Toronto to Anchorage to Hong Kong
A340-300

The following flights are operated by other airlines from North America:

Chicago to Hong Kong - United Airlines
747-400 x 2

Newark to Hong Kong - Continental Airlines
777-200

San Francisco to Hong Kong - United Airlnes
747-400

San Francisco to Hong Kong - Singapore Airlines
747-400

Toronto to Hong Kong - Air Canada
A340-500

Vancouver to Hong Kong - Air Canada
A340-300

The question is... Can American Airlines afford to expend a 777 on a non proven Asian route, yet again? Less we need to remember Taipei, Osaka, and Nagoya!

KAHALA777

CAL/ual

AMR/nwac

SWA/?

Quoting Commavia (Reply 1): AA is being very conservative, very prudent, very cautious here.

Indeed they are. AA is being VERY smart. All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire. If the number of seats increases too much, there will be a glut of seats and the same thing that is happening in the US domestic market will happen in the international arena.

As AA has a business model that is almost profitable (and that's saying someting in today's environment), they are very smart not to tinker with it too much.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 13): The question is... Can American Airlines afford to expend a 777 on a non proven Asian route, yet again? Less we need to remember Taipei, Osaka, and Nagoya!

Taipei......Yeah, I read that they tried to serve Taipei in 2001. I haven't been able to find out why it failed. Do you know why? Thanks.

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 15): Indeed they are. AA is being VERY smart. All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire. If the number of seats increases too much, there will be a glut of seats and the same thing that is happening in the US domestic market will happen in the international aren

Well, considering CO is not adding any aircraft to "expand" these ops (okay, 2 772ERs, but not for Europe, and a few 753s to serve some domestic/vacation routes), the backfiring is not likely. CO is shifting loads away from main routes, then downsizing those routes a bit, then using aircraft elsewhere. Rather than connect and codeshare, COs plan seems to be "anywhere from EWR" which is not a bad plan. And since they aren't buying planes to do it, it's cost effective.

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 16): Taipei......Yeah, I read that they tried to serve Taipei in 2001. I haven't been able to find out why it failed. Do you know why? Thanks.

They stopped flying that route after 9-11.

AA is doing the right thing. These other airlines are making huge mistakes. The international market right now is as it should be. There are plenty of travel options but not too many. The flights are leaving full from my experience and the rates are high enough for the flights to be profitable. So why on earth would anyone want to flood that market with new flights and turn it in to the mess that the domestic system currently is? I guess they weren't happy with one phase of their business being profitable. They feel the need to kill that as well.

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 15): All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire. If the number of seats increases too much, there will be a glut of seats and the same thing that is happening in the US domestic market will happen in the international arena.

Indeed. In the Q3 conference call, AA's Arpey and Beer touched breefly on their basic concern that with all the enormous expansion plans for Europe next summer (CO adding several cities, DL adding 11 routes, etc.) Europe could become saturated, driving yields down. AA, IMO, is being much more prudent by only putting its toe in the water with 757s to Europe, and seeing how it goes, and in the mean time focusing on its core international market strength, Latin America.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 7): AA also is looking at using the winglet equipped 757s on certain routes from MIA to Latin America - AA is very interested in launching nonstops from MIA to Brazilian cities such as Natal, Manaus, Recife and San Salvador with the 757Ws

Delta announce its interest in Brazil's World Tourism Conference to fly a 4th daily flight to other city in Brazil (not Rio or São Paulo).
A little correction, the name of city is only Salvador.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 20): AA, IMO, is being much more prudent by only putting its toe in the water with 757s to Europe, and seeing how it goes, and in the mean time focusing on its core international market strength, Latin America.

Agree 100% with you. And also AA is facing a extremely very good summer in South America this year. Bookings and sellings in Brazil are at least 18% up from last year, there are virtually no availability for the most dates, and some consulates like Rio de Janeiro, it's impossible to be interviewed for a US Visa before March, 06. (Sao Paulo and Brasilia keep available for january 06 and november 05). I expect to see AA improving Brazil with more 777 services, replacing some 767 frequencies in order to add seats while the bilateral keeps unchanged. Probably other countries are facing the same !

Regards
Felipe

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 21): I expect to see AA improving Brazil with more 777 services, replacing some 767 frequencies in order to add seats while the bilateral keeps unchanged.

Not happening. The only reason AA doesn't fly more 777s to Brazil is because they don't have enough 777s to go around, and it is more important to send them to London, Buenos Aires, and Asia. If it weren't for their lack of 777s, you would see AA 777s on the 2nd daily MIA-GRU and MIA-EZE redeye, JFK-EZE, and MIA-SCL. With ORD-NGO going away, though, the 2nd MIA-EZE redeye is probably going to be a 777 again.

AA is re-starting DFW-KIX tomorrow (11/1).

Isn't AA expanding or starting new service from LAX to Centeral America [i.e., SJO, GUA, SAL]???

LACA773

Is there any more thinking in taking their frequencies currently used for the 2nd MIA-GIG and using them for a new Brasilian city, such as Brasilia?

Does DEL not count as an expansion? After all, AA is starting up ORD-DEL mid-november.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 25): Is there any more thinking in taking their frequencies currently used for the 2nd MIA-GIG and using them for a new Brasilian city, such as Brasilia?

No. In fact after the high season on march, AA will increase the Daily light GRU-MIA to daily (using 2 frequencies from GIG-MIA) and also increase GRU-DFW from 7 to 10 per week.
AA is waiting for the developments on the Brazilian Law project to not require visa for americans and also to allow additional frequencies for North and Northeast cities. AA is doing a lot of lobby in Brasilia for this law to be approved.

Felipe

Who says AA is not expanding in some ways? They are doing it carefully. Start-up dates:

ORD-DEL 11/06

DFW-KIX 11/06

STL-PVR 02/06

DFW-MBJ 02/06

DFW-LIR 02/06

ORD-PVG 04/06

JFK-NCL 05/06

The 2nd MIA-EZE always comes back to 777 that's a seasonal change. AA does fly 777s to Brazil (1 daily MIA-GRU).

The 757 transatlantic expansion is still on the works. AA is also working w/its unions (APA/APFA) regarding crew rest locations on the reconfigured 757s. I guess we'll have to wait a while for all that to take shape.

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 15): All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire

American Airlines, is in the best position of any U.S. airline at current.

American Airlines, is taking a backseat to the rest of the industry when it comes to new cities and areas of service. American Airlines, is taking a look at what cities and routes require what aircraft. In addition American Airlines is not going to expend aircraft on routes that its codeshare and partner airlines operate to the U.S from. Examples being Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland and Hong Kong.

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 23): AA is re-starting DFW-KIX tomorrow (11/1).

Time will tell how long this round of flights to Osaka will last. Remember the year 1999?

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 28): AA does fly 777s to Brazil (1 daily MIA-GRU).

You seem to forget JFK-GRU!


KAHALA777

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 29): Quoting Carpethead (Reply 23): AA is re-starting DFW-KIX tomorrow (11/1). Time will tell how long this round of flights to Osaka will last. Remember the year 1999?

I have heard DFW-NRT is a money maker, however KIX is a different story altogther. Anybod have any insight on advance bookings, advance yield etc.? The first DFW-KIX was axed due to 09/11 and the SARS scare.

Nonetheless I'm being optimisitc this time around, but if the flight is pulled, which historically AA will do quickly if it doesn't perform, those 2 777's will find themselves in South America. Or maybe into some of the European markets that could use the extra lift - i.e. MIA-MAD, etc.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 30): I have heard DFW-NRT is a money maker, however KIX is a different story altogther. Anybod have any insight on advance bookings, advance yield etc.?

DFW-NRT is, indeed, a successful route. AA does well on it. Apparently, DFW-KIX advance bookings are not bad for a new flight, but not stellar either. However, I have heard that the front end of the plane is filling up much more than Coach. All things being equal, AA would much rather fill up the front than the back if one is going to be one is going to be only half-full!

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 30): The first DFW-KIX was axed due to 09/11 and the SARS scare.

It was purely 9/11. The flight simply could not hang on after the attacks, and AA lost several huge cargo contracts that caused the flight to fail. Apparently, AA has secured several key cargo agreements for this flight as well, so hopefully it will make it.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 30): Nonetheless I'm being optimisitc this time around, but if the flight is pulled, which historically AA will do quickly if it doesn't perform, those 2 777's will find themselves in South America. Or maybe into some of the European markets that could use the extra lift - i.e. MIA-MAD, etc.

Agreed. If these two 777s are pulled, I think that they may be headed over to DFW-CDG and JFK-CDG. Both routes do extremely well, and both flights go out full in J and Y, and packed with cargo. These routes could use 777s. In addition, MIA-MAD could easily fill a 777, too.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 31): In addition, MIA-MAD could easily fill a 777, too.

There is not enough premium traffic in the Miami-Madrid market. At best it would have to be a high density seasonal trade out with a 767-300. AT current American Airlines 767-300 to Miami is a two class operation, heavy on economy.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 31): If these two 777s are pulled, I think that they may be headed over to DFW-CDG and JFK-CDG.

DFW-CDG, via the 777 was pulled in favor of FRA-DFW, it was all due to the yileds.

JFK-CDG, via the 777 was pulled when AA moved aircraft around to maximize profit. At current Air France serves JFK-CDG 5x daily, Delta 2x daily, and AA 2x daily. There is little room to operate a 772, with the exception of combining both JFK flights into one.

KAHALA777

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 32): There is not enough premium traffic in the Miami-Madrid market.

Oh, sure there is -- especially now that IB cut their frequencies on the route, and especially as AA's MAD-MIA-MAD flights are a nexus to and from Latin America.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 32): DFW-CDG, via the 777 was pulled in favor of FRA-DFW, it was all due to the yileds.

Incorrect. DFW-FRA has remained a 777 for five years, and was before and after the 777 was pulled off DFW-CDG. DFW-CDG lost the 777 because they needed the planes elswhere, and because AA chose frequency over aircraft size back in 2000-2001 when it went up against AF's CDG-DFW A340 flight. AA went from a single 777 to two daily 767-300s, down to 12x weekly 767-300s, and now back down to a single 767-300. DFW-CDG has excellent yields, phenomenal premium traffic, and could easily fill up F on a 777.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 32): JFK-CDG, via the 777 was pulled when AA moved aircraft around to maximize profit. At current Air France serves JFK-CDG 5x daily, Delta 2x daily, and AA 2x daily. There is little room to operate a 772, with the exception of combining both JFK flights into one.

AA is an extremely strong competitor on this route, and could definitely put a 777 successfully back on AA44/45. The route not only generates lots of premium traffic that AA is strong in capturing, but it also has tons of cargo demand, some of which AA is leaving on the tarmac with smaller 767s.

Given AA's relationship with IB, is there any talk of reinstating DFW-MAD?

Quoting Commavia (Reply 33): Oh, sure there is -- especially now that IB cut their frequencies on the route, and especially as AA's MAD-MIA-MAD flights are a nexus to and from Latin America

Oh, there is so much premium traffic that Iberia has gone to a two class product!

Quoting Commavia (Reply 33): DFW-CDG has excellent yields, phenomenal premium traffic, and could easily fill up F on a 777

Phenomenal.... Then why has Air France pulled the plug on DFW-CDG, and AA dumped a second DFW-CDG service.... Yeah, phenomenal!

Quoting Commavia (Reply 33): AA is an extremely strong competitor on this route, and could definitely put a 777 successfully back on AA44/45

AA.... estremely strong? That is a first... JFK-CDG premium traffic for the most part is in the hands of AIR FRANCE!

KAHALA777

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 30): I have heard DFW-NRT is a money maker, however KIX is a different story altogther. Anybod have any insight on advance bookings, advance yield etc.?

DFW-KIX has a lucrative cargo contract that will keep it in the black.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 31): I think that they may be headed over to DFW-CDG and JFK-CDG. Both routes do extremely well, and both flights go out full in J and Y, and packed with cargo.

MIA-CDG is AA's strongest performing Paris route thanks to a large number of full-fare paying C passengers.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 32): . AT current American Airlines 767-300 to Miami is a two class operation, heavy on economy.

Miami-Madrid fills C class easily.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 35): Oh, there is so much premium traffic that Iberia has gone to a two class product!

Iberia is in the process of elimating all F service. Seriously, your commets are inane and often times rudely worded. You just say something for the sole purpose of attempting to contradict them, even if you end up contradicting yourself.

[Edited 2005-10-31 18:27:31]

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 35): Oh, there is so much premium traffic that Iberia has gone to a two class product!

As with many markets, comparing IB's J product with other premium products is a bit disingenuous. IB's J product would be considered F in the U.S., and is a high-end product for a very high-end market. Whether you think so or not, MIA-MAD is one of the highest-yielding markets across the Atlantic.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 35): Phenomenal.... Then why has Air France pulled the plug on DFW-CDG, and AA dumped a second DFW-CDG service.... Yeah, phenomenal!

AF pulled the plug because they need the A340 to fly from CDG to Africa to fill the void from the SN collapse, and kept the plug pulled because DL pulled the DFW hub. The route does, indeed, have phenomenal premium demand and does extremely well for AA.

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 35): AA.... estremely strong? That is a first... JFK-CDG premium traffic for the most part is in the hands of AIR FRANCE!

AF gets the most premium traffic on the route, no doubt. That's how it is with virtually every route betwen the U.S. and Europe. But AA is a very competitive airline on the route, and does indeed do extremely well in the market's premium sector.

DFW-KIX can now be supported fully by the pending join-up of JL in oneWorld.
Also it seems the folks at KIX are pitching a SJC-KIX route to AA, but I think this is somebody wet dream at the KIX office. AA has better use of 777 elsewhere and the 763 probably doesn't have the legs. Maybe when AA get a hands on the 787....

I would like to see them fly ORD/JFK-DXB..but it's not going to happen soon....    

Quoting Commavia (Reply 37): Whether you think so or not, MIA-MAD is one of the highest-yielding markets across the Atlantic.

Must agree... I have flown both IB and AA on the MIA-MAD route and these flights are always packed... economy and business (first? whatever you want to call it)

Also MIA-CDG is a great route flown it twice and never have I been on an empty flight.

As my fellow A.NETERS posted here, I think if AA had more 777's around you would definetly see more 763 long haul routes that perform well going to 777.

I think AA is doing the right thing...step by step... see what happens.

It seems to me that AA is playing wait and see with its 3 legacy competitors, UA, DL, and NW, that are in Chapter 11. It appears that UA will exit Chapter 11 in the 1stQ of '06.

Depending on what happens with NW and DL will affect long-term planning at AA. If NW does go into liquidation, you can bet that AA will bid for the Asian routes and place orders for more 777s.

The other factor is oil prices. If oil prices continue down and stay below $60 a barrel through all of '06, AA is poised to be profitable. If that trend continues into '07, my guess is that AA will decide to take some 777 deliveries.

The unknown factor is Delta's plan to put Song amenities on the rest of the mainline fleet. The Song product has done very well for DL, and AA may have to decide how it should respond.