Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Scorpio
Posts: 5052
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Sun Nov 13, 2005 9:56 pm

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 48):
The big battle at EK for be A350 v 787 and what to do with the A346 they have ordered but don't really want.

And your source for saying they 'don't really want' the A346 is what exactly?
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1893
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:15 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
But for this to happen Boeing has to offer a credible 787-10X proposal with early enough EIS date for EK and let Airbus get wind of it.

787-10X is already credible - EK made it official a few weeks ago (see "the first 787-10 image" thread). The only problem is, Boeing does not have the authority from the board of directors to formally offer that plane to anyone.

Quoting 797charter (Reply 42):
But I don't think the 787-10X will be launched now when the 787-8 (+787-3) is selling like hot bread - and they are struggling to raise the production rate with these to variants.

And why would a launch of 787-10 hurt -3 and -8?? these are three different variants for two different markets. An airline that wants 220 seater will not buy a 300 seat -10 and vice versa...
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:29 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 51):
The only problem is, Boeing does not have the authority from the board of directors to formally offer that plane to anyone.

True, but that could be easily rectified. Just get the boys and girls together for a vote. IMO, that lovely picture in Flight International of the 787-10 has already caused Mr. Leahy to sharpen his pencil and discount the A350 further. The 787 vs A350 at EK is Airbus' to lose. Just my USD$0.02.
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1893
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:37 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 52):
True, but that could be easily rectified. Just get the boys and girls together for a vote.

Well, they should get ther arses together and vote then. Dubai show starts this week I believe...

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 52):
The 787 vs A350 at EK is Airbus' to lose.

You don't know that. So far it's A350 that's winning... We'll see in coming days if Randy will put his money where his mouth is...
 
Glom
Posts: 2056
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:41 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 52):
IMO, that lovely picture in Flight International of the 787-10 has already caused Mr. Leahy to sharpen his pencil and discount the A350 further.

Maybe Boeing's cunning plan. If Airbus are going to get a good order sheet, make darn sure they don't get a good balance sheet. Make them lose everything last euro they can on the deal by forcing them to discount further and further.
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 2:17 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 54):
Maybe Boeing's cunning plan.

More likely, the extremely crafty Mr. Tim Clarke squeezing as hard as he can. Emirates owns a substantial block of Airbus' order book--in the extremely profitable wide body segment. Airbus will do whatever it takes to secure the A350 order. IMO, from a business strategy perspective, there are certain airlines that each manufacturer simply cannot afford to lose. EK is one of these for Airbus. (CO and AA for Boeing) The real battle is being fought in the wide body market, both profits and bragging rights; the narrow body is about 50-50. This is going to be a very interesting November and December. QF, SQ, EK, SU, CX....
 
astuteman
Posts: 7439
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 4:40 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 51):
And why would a launch of 787-10 hurt -3 and -8??

Only insofar as the Boeing engineering resources are pretty much tied up on the development on the -8 and the -3 at the moment.
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:23 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 50):
And your source for saying they 'don't really want' the A346 is what exactly?

Nobody really wants the gas-guzzling quad-powered A340-600's. They are definitely going away, and soon. Airbus put a fork in them with the A350 introduction. And with such a small installed base (only 119 having been sold), the residual values are set to plummet as well. Until around 2011 Airbus has only the A330 series to rely on for steady cash flow in the mid-market.
 
kaitak
Posts: 10092
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:41 am

Just a thought that occurred to me (I'm sorry,it happens, but I'm trying to cut it back  Wink) ... EK has been after Airbus to launch an A380-900. Now, if Airbus were to launch that and get a good launch discount on the A350-900 and convert the A340-600 orders ...

There is huge demand for aircraft in the A330 class at the moment, so if Airbus were to accept cancellation of these, they could be converted to A330s and sold on ... Indeed, some airline with financial problems (like NW) could defer orders they have in the near term? Shouldn't be too hard to shift A330 delivery positions for 2007, I'd say ...
 
797charter
Posts: 154
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:32 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:45 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 57):
Quoting Scorpio (Reply 50):
And your source for saying they 'don't really want' the A346 is what exactly?

Nobody really wants the gas-guzzling quad-powered A340-600's.

Do you have other sources than "nobody"???
 
bomber996
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:21 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:54 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 57):
Nobody really wants the gas-guzzling quad-powered A340-600's.

Well now... Here we have a prime example of the twin loving, quad bashing poster...

Now, if this was really true, then why did LH order more A346's?

Peace  box 
 
boeingbus
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 6:21 am

Quoting Bomber996 (Reply 60):
then why did LH order more A346's?

Because they already have some and needed more... but please judge the success on new customers as this good benchmark on market favorability... NONE this year. This is not the year for the A340, if you ask me. A350 will just put another nail on the A340 coffin, as that derivative will grow to compete with the 773 in the future.

In 10 years you will have A320/350/380 and for Boeing 737/787/777/747.

Just my 2 cents.
 
Scorpio
Posts: 5052
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 7:20 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 57):
Nobody really wants the gas-guzzling quad-powered A340-600's. They are definitely going away, and soon. Airbus put a fork in them with the A350 introduction. And with such a small installed base (only 119 having been sold), the residual values are set to plummet as well. Until around 2011 Airbus has only the A330 series to rely on for steady cash flow in the mid-market.

Gee, I don't quite remember asking for another lesson in why the A340 sucks in your opinion, I just remember asking for a source. Which is nowhere to be found in your answer.
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:02 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 62):
Gee, I don't quite remember asking for another lesson in why the A340 sucks in your opinion, I just remember asking for a source. Which is nowhere to be found in your answer.

OK, Scorpio, here's my source: Airbus A340 orders for 2005 after A350 intro = NONE!
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:10 am

Quoting Bomber996 (Reply 60):
Here we have a prime example of the twin loving, quad bashing poster...

Thank you. I appreciate the compliment. If anyone doesn't see the demise of quads in the mid-size passenger market, they need to sign up for Bonehead Marketing 101.
 
User avatar
zeke
Topic Author
Posts: 16357
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:44 am

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 43):
I agree with QFA001, that the future of the A340 fleet at EK looks questionable.

Dale,

Not sure about that, the airbus guys are working very hard compared to the boeing fleet.

Also hear they are in the market for 50 747 size freighters, maybe something bigger.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 64):
Thank you. I appreciate the compliment. If anyone doesn't see the demise of quads in the mid-size passenger market, they need to sign up for Bonehead Marketing 101.

They will be here for years to come.
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 51):

787-10X is already credible - EK made it official a few weeks ago (see "the first 787-10 image" thread)

No. That was a Flight International rendering.

N
 
dalecary
Posts: 834
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2000 10:28 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 11:11 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 65):
Dale,

Not sure about that, the airbus guys are working very hard compared to the boeing fleet.

Also hear they are in the market for 50 747 size freighters, maybe something bigger.

Well, what do they need the A340s for if they are ordering 50+ of 359/777/747F??? IT was reported in FI several months ago that EK were looking to dispose of their A345s and cancel the 346 order for A359s. I think it is a very plausible and reasonable strategy. If they can get 772LR/773ER fast enough, there appears little need for A345/6. We shall know soon enough, anyway. I quite like the A359/777/380 fleet, if that is the way they are going.
It's not only goodbye to 343/5/6, but also 332 and all older 777s.
 
User avatar
zeke
Topic Author
Posts: 16357
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 12:40 pm

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 67):
Well, what do they need the A340s for if they are ordering 50+ of 359/777/747F??? IT was reported in FI several months ago that EK were looking to dispose of their A345s and cancel the 346 order for A359s

Dale,

I agree that they may will be looking at replacing some of the older aircraft, with a backlog of over 60 aircraft, and over 100 aircraft being looked at (pax & freight) they are obviously looking at further expansion, I have heard talk of both VS and EK trying to set up a south pacific base for a true global network.

With delivery of the 359 5 years off, I still see more aircraft required in the interim, with 350/787 engine technology making its way onto the 340 within two years, the lower purchase price and low operating cost of them will not make them that easy to dispose of.

To me they look like they are going to do some serious capacity dumping at a loss for a few years, make other airlines go broke, once they are out of the picture jack up prices.

If they do get rid of the A340s, see VS and EY putting their hands up for them, EY is leasing 767s at the moment as they cannot get enough aircraft.

History has shown whilst you are always buying new aircraft its easy to offset the true financial situation of the airline, this has happened in the UK several times over, with black holes of money never to be found. I dont think the middle east airlines play on a level field, tax rates and fuel prices are even lower than south east asian carriers.

In my view the relatives behind EK and EY are in a race to see who has got the bigger train set, its got nothing to do with actually running a profitable airline, thats a by product.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:02 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 68):
I have heard talk of both VS and EK trying to set up a south pacific base for a true global network.

Thanks, Zeke, that's a very interesting new 'angle'. It's pretty obvious that, with the advent of 'ultra-longhaul', Emirates will eventually have to develop beyond their current policy of routeing everything through Dubai.

Interesting to speculate on where? On the face of it, seen from Dubai, Australia is too far west (or not far enough east  Smile), New Zealand is too far south. Makes you wonder if Vanuatu or Fiji or Western Samoa are receiving some attention.......  Smile
 
QFA001
Posts: 651
Joined: Sat May 27, 2000 6:47 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:49 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
Doesn't it depend how you consider the word "order" when Boeing has only been able to book 1/2 the China 787s despite this order being as firm as anything on earth?

When I reviewed later on, I realised that Leahy had said that he expected a China order during 2006, not towards the end of this year. So, I quietly withdraw my suggestion that perhaps China could get Airbus to 200 A350 orders during 2005...

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 38):
EK will not cancel their A340-600 order, because EK need the aircraft for the expanding and the A350 will come not before 2010.

However, that's why it's rumoured that EK will buy a substantial number of extra B777s. If Boeing matches Airbus' A340-600 delivery stream, then EK won't lose out on seats. Infact, it means that EK will have slightly more as the -300ER is slightly larger than the -600.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 48):
I think EK would love to cancel A346 and get more 77W.

EK has a large A340 order in. By now, on at least the first frames, they've probably paid Airbus anything up to 15% of final delivery cost. So, if EK cancelled their order flat, it would be very expensive for them. IMO, it makes all the sense in the world for EK to convert A340s to A350s.

Having said that, Airbus has to be willing for that to occur. And, on that front, the story goes that both Airbus and Boeing told EK that they weren't prepared to take-back EK's A340-500s in trade for new airplanes. That is allegedly why EK didn't announce a A350 or B777 order at Paris '05.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 50):
And your source for saying they 'don't really want' the A346 is what exactly?

I can't answer for other people, but the originating industry rumours came straight from EK themselves. At least, some of their employees have said that they'd rather have B777s. To an extent, EK has wanted that for a long time. They were amongst the most vociferous complaining of the price of B777s. Now that Boeing is competing more on price, it's not really surprising that EK would want to have B777s, instead.

 airplane QFA001
 
User avatar
zeke
Topic Author
Posts: 16357
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:51 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 69):
Interesting to speculate on where?

Give you a hint, one of them has purchased a heap of land at an airport in the region at the same location they have their largest engineering base outside their home port.
 
QFA001
Posts: 651
Joined: Sat May 27, 2000 6:47 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 5:14 pm

Seattle-PI is reporting that EK will order about 42 B777LR/Fs + 10 purchase rights.

This is consistent with the 50+ numbers we've been hearing for months.

When this happens, this will mean that by 2012 EK will still be more than twice as large as EY/GF/QR combined. Unless, that is, that those airlines also order more airplanes...

 airplane QFA001
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 5:21 pm

That is a lot of high priced aluminum. I just don't see how their neighbors will let them get away with this without upping the ante, in the process creating a lot of excess capacity in the region.

I wonder if EK's strategy is to soak up slots and become so important to Boeing and Airbus, that they won't want EK to fail so they won't sell much to EK's regional competitors.
 
MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:43 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 16):
Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 6):
Airbus is close enough to the 200 mark to be able to get there without the EK order.
If that's the case (meaning >260 with EK), then the 787 is a bit of a disappointment. The A350 will have sold at twice the rate in that case. What is wrong with Boeing's sales team? Supposedly, the 787 has the edge because of its new Yellowstone technology.

The 787 is a disappoinment? You're joking? The 787 is selling so well, that Boeing is considering opening a 2nd production line...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2002628489_boeing17.html

Quote:
Doubling production?

At this week's summit, 787 customers will likely ask about the potential to ramp up production more quickly.

Boeing is studying a rate increase that would double production from seven to 14 jets per month by setting up a second assembly line.
 
fraspotter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Sat May 08, 2004 8:12 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:06 pm

Quoting BMIFlyer (Reply 1):
Jeez, they already have 45x A380, 20x A340-600HGW, 2x A340-500, 30x B777-300ER and also 3x A310F on order!!

Well, when you have all that money and revenue just from the oil fields, you can tend to be able to afford that many planes. EK is DEFINITELY a world class airline...
 
dalecary
Posts: 834
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2000 10:28 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:32 pm

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 72):
Seattle-PI is reporting that EK will order about 42 B777LR/Fs + 10 purchase rights.

This is consistent with the 50+ numbers we've been hearing for months.

24 773ER, 10 772LR and 8 77F seems to be the breakdown of the orders. Will the 24 773ERs replace the 20 346HGWs on order and will the 10 772LRs replace the 10 A345s already in the fleet???
I'm amazed the 777 order is out and nothing seems to have been leaked about the A359 order.
Looking at the Dubai Air Show press conferences, EK have a conference scheduled for 9.00am Monday DXB time.'
QR has a press conference scheduled on Tuesday.
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:16 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 51):
Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
But for this to happen Boeing has to offer a credible 787-10X proposal with early enough EIS date for EK and let Airbus get wind of it.

787-10X is already credible - EK made it official a few weeks ago (see "the first 787-10 image" thread). The only problem is, Boeing does not have the authority from the board of directors to formally offer that plane to anyone.

The 787-10X is certainly a credible concept - but whether it is plausible (or wise) for Boeing to offer the aircraft with an EIS suitable for EK is another question altogether. Boeing's resources will be considerably stretched in the 2008-2011 timeframe due to the runaway success of existing 787 models. There is also much experience to be gained from R&D, manufacturing and in flight service before launching yet another 787 model. While it would be a marketing coup for Boeing to secure the EK order with the 787 they probably have more to gain in the long run by being patient and gaining experience from the 783/8/9 before launching any 787-10.


Cheers,
StickShaker
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:46 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
Although it would be nice for them to win the entire order with the 772LR and the 787-10X, Boeing would probably be best off if Airbus has to accept EK's cancellation of the A346HGWs and shifting of deposits to the A350. EK would then be able to place the a large combined order for 772LRs and additional 773ERs. Boeing will improve their revenue and sales in the short term by getting additional 777 orders and would reduce strain on their R&D budget by being able to delay 787-10X development and EIS.



Quoting 797charter (Reply 42):
I don't think the 787-10X will be launched now when the 787-8 (+787-3) is selling like hot bread - and they are struggling to raise the production rate with these to variants.



Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 51):

787-10X is already credible - EK made it official a few weeks ago (see "the first 787-10 image" thread). The only problem is, Boeing does not have the authority from the board of directors to formally offer that plane to anyone.

The problem keeping Boeing from formally offering the B787-10 to the airlines is that the engine manufacturers haven't yet figured out how to get the 84,000 or so lbs. thrust from the engines that are needed to lift a 562,000 lbs MTOW B787. That the MTOW of the B787-9 has been revised from 500,000 lbs to 509,000 lbs to 540,000 lbs and moved up from 2012 to 2010 are indicators that the engine manufacturers are making good progress with thrust. Boeing may just pull a rabbit out of their hat and offer the B787-10 in time for the Dubai Air Show, but the contractual delivery dates might, for now, be conservative.
 
QFA001
Posts: 651
Joined: Sat May 27, 2000 6:47 am

RE: Large EK Order?

Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:24 am

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 76):
24 773ER, 10 772LR and 8 77F seems to be the breakdown of the orders. Will the 24 773ERs replace the 20 346HGWs on order and will the 10 772LRs replace the 10 A345s already in the fleet?

Also, does this alter EK's freighter plans? They had only ordered two A380Fs, but had high hopes for a much larger fleet. Now that I think of it, could EK be the airline behind Airbus' A350F study, too?

If so, then EK is indeed becoming the "new Pan Am". They've been pushing for larger A350s, A380s & B787s; and got Airbus to do A340-600HGWs and Boeing to reduce the price of B777-300ERs.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 78):
The problem keeping Boeing from formally offering the B787-10 to the airlines is that the engine manufacturers haven't yet figured out how to get the 84,000 or so lbs. thrust from the engines that are needed to lift a 562,000 lbs MTOW B787.

Boeing doesn't need to grow the -10X beyond 540klb. That would make it a simple stretch of the -9. Sure, in future, if customers wanted more range then more thrust is desirable, but I doubt that Boeing would need to go higher than 540klb to meet EK's 7,500nm "range of interest".

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 78):
That the MTOW of the B787-9 has been revised from 500,000 lbs to 509,000 lbs to 540,000 lbs and moved up from 2012 to 2010 are indicators that the engine manufacturers are making good progress with thrust.

Both engine OEMs are committed to 74klb engines for the -9. That's why Boeing made the 540klb version the 'standard' version.

 airplane QFA001
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Large EK Order?

Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:55 am

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 79):
Boeing doesn't need to grow the -10X beyond 540klb. That would make it a simple stretch of the -9. Sure, in future, if customers wanted more range then more thrust is desirable, but I doubt that Boeing would need to go higher than 540klb to meet EK's 7,500nm "range of interest".


Wasn 't the range of interest actually >8000nm? It seems that while EK found 7500nm acceptable, they would rather have something greater than that.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos