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NYC777
Topic Author
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Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:37 am

Now that Boeing has launched the 748, is EK a potential customer for this airplane since:

1) They want the newest & latest
2) They keep screaming about the need for more capacity
3) They have a hole between the 773ER and the A380 and some of the current and future markets would need capacity in between those two planes.

What do you think?
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:44 am

When will the first 747advs enter service? Will EK have solved their capacity problem with a whole bunch of A380s by then?

Wanting the newest and latest - i dont think thats true. They are interested in cost savings first and foremost. It may look like Magpie syndrome to you - but I assure you their aquisitions strategies are a little more studied than that.

Your third point - yep i can see it. If their expansion goes to plan then there will be a gap, but it may be a small one, as you can bet with 45-odd A380s - any route that can support a 747adv will see A380 service. Its the old EK strategy - cheap seats and quality product to encourage growth - its not like they havent made a good living out of operating planes 3/4 full for much of the time. They seem to be able to make it work - so fair play to them.

I can totally see them getting a load of cargo versions though.
 
lh477
Posts: 567
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:44 am

I don't think so. They aren't 744 operator. Which begs the question, why didn't EK ever go from 744?
 
Glom
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:50 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
When will the first 747advs enter service?

2009, which means they can get it before the A350.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
Its the old EK strategy - cheap seats and quality product to encourage growth - its not like they havent made a good living out of operating planes 3/4 full for much of the time.

But then they have loads of 773ERs on order and are expected to place a large A350 order. By your reasoning, they could do that to their 773ER routes and upgrade to the 748.
 
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B742
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:07 am

Quoting LH477 (Reply 2):
They aren't 744 operator. Which begs the question, why didn't EK ever go from 744?

Actualy they techincaly are, Emirates SkyCargo operate 4 747-47U FSCD's on behalf of Atlas Air!

I would love to see the 747-8 in the EK fleet, hopefuly we can see it!  Smile

Rob!  wave 
 
777STL
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:10 am

Why would EK buy the 748 when they have a gazillion 380s coming to them?

The only way I see this happening is if EK wants to expand its cargo operations, not for pax anyway.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:22 am

I wouldn't be surprised to see the cargo version of the 747-800 operating for Emirates. Cargo is profitable, and they can use the same advantage of a centrally located passenger hub with low costs in order to grow a cargo division with new 747s. Demand between Asia and Europe is huge.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:27 am

Quoting 777STL (Reply 5):
Why would EK buy the 748 when they have a gazillion 380s coming to them?

A. it will be available in 2009
B. it is between the 773 and A388
C. they can take deliveries of the 748 concurrently with the 388 to increase lift faster
D. my theory is EK will also become a leasing company, and will have fleets of every large plane worth leasing.
E. EK wants to keep both suppliers happy while getting good deals on aircraft. a follow-on A380 isn't going to be as good a deal as the 748, and then they can place a large 359 order without being too tied up in Airbus.
 
lh477
Posts: 567
Joined: Wed Jan 07, 2004 11:23 am

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:55 am

Quoting B742 (Reply 4):
Actualy they techincaly are, Emirates SkyCargo operate 4 747-47U FSCD's on behalf of Atlas Air!

I should be more specific, they aren't a customer operator of 744.
I could see them operating it for cargo operations.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:02 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 7):
A. it will be available in 2009
B. it is between the 773 and A388
C. they can take deliveries of the 748 concurrently with the 388 to increase lift faster
D. my theory is EK will also become a leasing company, and will have fleets of every large plane worth leasing.
E. EK wants to keep both suppliers happy while getting good deals on aircraft. a follow-on A380 isn't going to be as good a deal as the 748, and then they can place a large 359 order without being too tied up in Airbus.

Very possible but highly unlikely. They do not WANT a 747.
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:07 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 3):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
Its the old EK strategy - cheap seats and quality product to encourage growth - its not like they havent made a good living out of operating planes 3/4 full for much of the time.

But then they have loads of 773ERs on order and are expected to place a large A350 order. By your reasoning, they could do that to their 773ER routes and upgrade to the 748.

No - i didnt say they would do it out of choice - i just mean that they may prefer to do an SQ and abuse the A380s they have on order rather than introduce another fleet type. Any routes that need something bigger than the 773ER will get the A380 - simple as.
 
PlaneDane
Posts: 346
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:10 am

Quoting 777STL (Reply 5):
Why would EK buy the 748 when they have a gazillion 380s coming to them?

The only way I see this happening is if EK wants to expand its cargo operations, not for pax anyway.

I agree. To what you said, I'd add that while EK has nothing against Boeing that I'm aware of, I think their business relationship with Airbus is stronger and closer as a preferred supplier. So, I'm saying that aside from the 773, EK will continue to find what they need from Airbus.

Also, too, I realize that the 748 fills a capacity gap, but we don't know whether that's a gap that EK even needs or desires to fill.
 
777STL
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:32 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 7):
A. it will be available in 2009
B. it is between the 773 and A388
C. they can take deliveries of the 748 concurrently with the 388 to increase lift faster
D. my theory is EK will also become a leasing company, and will have fleets of every large plane worth leasing.
E. EK wants to keep both suppliers happy while getting good deals on aircraft. a follow-on A380 isn't going to be as good a deal as the 748, and then they can place a large 359 order without being too tied up in Airbus.

You're assuming: they want/need planes in 2009 and they have a burning desire to increase capacity, they want a plane between the 773 and the 388, and EK cares what Boeing thinks of them. I doubt EK even knows what it is going to do with all its ordered 380s.

Since when do customers buy something to keep suppliers happy, isn't usually the other way around in the airline/aircraft industry? Suppliers build something to keep the customers happy?
 
David_itl
Posts: 6456
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 5:57 am

Quoting 777STL (Reply 12):
I doubt EK even knows what it is going to do with all its ordered 380s

Expect at least 6 A380s to be operating on just the UK-DXB sector (something like 3 for LHR, 2 for LGW and 1 for MAN), factor in some for Australia routes (perhaps as many as 4). So I've already decided what 25% of the fleet will be doing......and that's to 2 countries only! Factor in that all 43 on order will not be delivered on 1st Jan 2007 and you can see that they are looking to increase capacity throughout their network for the long-term and taking into account that airports will generally not be able to add runways willy-nilly so average number of passengers per flight has to increase.

The 773 in the EK layout seats up to around 430 passengers....so not exactly well short of the capacity the 748 (shouldn't we qualify it with a B in front as the older British readers may only think of HS variety?) will offer.
 
astuteman
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Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:02 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
Very possible but highly unlikely. They do not WANT a 747.

What makes you say that, DAYflyer? (genuine question..)
 
TinkerBelle
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:31 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
Very possible but highly unlikely. They do not WANT a 747.

What makes you say that, DAYflyer? (genuine question..)

damn, I was typing the same exact question.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20124
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:21 am

Quoting 777STL (Reply 12):
I doubt EK even knows what it is going to do with all its ordered 380s.

Because nothing in EK's history suggests they know exactly what they're doing does it?  sarcastic 

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
Very possible but highly unlikely. They do not WANT a 747.

What makes you say that, DAYflyer? (genuine question..)



Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 15):
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
Very possible but highly unlikely. They do not WANT a 747.

What makes you say that, DAYflyer? (genuine question..)

damn, I was typing the same exact question.

Er, simply the fact that if EK wanted the 747 they'd have ordered it by now? They've ordered planes by the dozen above and below 747 capacity, but none at 747 capacity. What makes you think they want it?  confused 
 
777STL
Posts: 2770
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:22 am

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:51 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 16):
Because nothing in EK's history suggests they know exactly what they're doing does it?

Oh, what's that snarky little comment for, along with the rolleyes?

It's a valid suggestion, and nothing against EK, but they seem to be expanding quite rapidly.
 
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scbriml
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Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 5:30 pm

Quoting 777STL (Reply 17):
Oh, what's that snarky little comment for, along with the rolleyes?

Apologies, I wasn't feeling very subtle, and I'm constantly surprised by the EK bashers on this site who seem not to be able to understand that it is perfectly possible to run an expanding and profitable airline that doesn't get its fuel for free.

EK is one of the best run airlines out there. What makes you think they don't know what to do with all the planes they've ordered, especially the A380s? Very often EK has to delay starting new destinations because they don't have enough planes. They've publicly stated that they'd be using A380s today if they could, and that they really want A389s.

The other significant point is, of course, they are not going to wake up one morning and find 40-odd A380s parked on the ramp and then try and work out what to do with them.
 
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zeke
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RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 5:38 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
Very possible but highly unlikely. They do not WANT a 747.

Last time I was in DXB caught up with a few mates, they said EK wanted it freighter arm to increase to a fleet of 50 747 size aircraft.

Presently Atlas and others do the freight work under contract from EK, could see such operators buying the 748F and flying them on the EK contract.
 
Thorben
Posts: 2713
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:29 pm

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:46 pm

I'm pretty sure they'll order a bunch of B748s. They'll get more than 40 A388s, probably also A389s, around 30 B773ERs and 20 A346s. They'll need a size in between, it's just logical.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7439
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:03 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 16):
Er, simply the fact that if EK wanted the 747 they'd have ordered it by now? They've ordered planes by the dozen above and below 747 capacity, but none at 747 capacity. What makes you think they want it?

Peace. Sorry if I stepped on a nerve somewhere. I asked an innocuous question of Dhefty, who sounded like he had a strongly held reason for saying what he did, and just wanted to know if there was one.

I've never had a view one way or another on this issue, but I DO see EK buying lots of the LATEST aircraft, and the 744 for me does not fit that category.

Seeing as how the much newer 74-8 has (according to Randy, + anyone else that wants to believe it), "the lowest CASM" of any aircraft ever conceived, I didn't personally see what would stop EK buying this plane in the future, particularly in freighter form.

FWIW the "EK don't know what they're doing" piss me off every bit as much as they do you.
 
777STL
Posts: 2770
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:22 am

RE: Will Emirates Buy The 747-8?

Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:56 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 18):
Apologies, I wasn't feeling very subtle, and I'm constantly surprised by the EK bashers on this site who seem not to be able to understand that it is perfectly possible to run an expanding and profitable airline that doesn't get its fuel for free.

I didn't mean it as a slam against EK, quite the contrary.

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