Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Boogyjay
Topic Author
Posts: 436
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 1:29 am

Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:13 pm

Brief translation of some parts of this article from French to English on my part. I haven't found anything in English yet:

"The initial delivery date for the giant airplane was April 2007 but ' Airbus had difficulties respecting its schedule', said Philippe Calavia"

" 'We agreed to simply postpone the entire programme of 1 year', he stated, highlighting that for the company, taking delivery of its airplanes during Autumn, the low season for air traffic, makes no sense".

"Discussions are on going with the European plane maker concerning payment of delay penalities to Air France"

"We are negotiating compensations with Airbus. It's an important loss for us in term of costs" he stated, without giving any estimate."


What do you think about that? Do you think other airlines may postpone their A380 to peak season?

I think AF is reasonable to do so if there is no need for them to introduce the A380 during off-peak season. They are moreover not the first to introduce it so there isn't much prestige too. Economy comes first.
 
BBJII
Posts: 831
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:22 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:21 pm

This maybe a break that Airbus needed.

Someone MAY finally get the A380 on-time.


 wave 
Remember: The Bird Hit You, You Didn't Hit The Bird.....
 
flyAUA
Posts: 4287
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 3:12 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:25 pm

Well that sounds completely reasonable to me, and I don't think Airbus have any reason to try and negotiate a different deal with AFR. The only question that comes to my mind now is, what kind of compensation can AFR expect to recieve in this case? A 4-6 month delay which was caused on Airbus' part does not represent the same about of money that a 1 year delay - agreed by AFR - amounts to. I don't think Airbus will compensate for a whole year when they are only responsible for a 6 month delay... or will they?

And also... this could free up some slots for the later A388 cutomers who are not bothered about peak/off-peak seasons and would like to have it delivered earlier. AFR ordered 10 of these, didn't they?
Not drinking, also isn't a solution!
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:35 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 2):
And also... this could free up some slots for the later A388 cutomers who are not bothered about peak/off-peak seasons and would like to have it delivered earlier. AFR ordered 10 of these, didn't they?

China Southern comes to mind. When are they due to take delivery of their A380's?
 
Boogyjay
Topic Author
Posts: 436
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 1:29 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:50 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 2):
AFR ordered 10 of these, didn't they?

Yes 10 firms + 4 options.

You are right about other delivery slots being freed-up + giving Airbus a break. Other carriers will probably benefit from that and receive their A380 earlier than previously re-scheduled when the delay has appeared.

I don't know if the compensations could include the extra 6 month delay wanted by AF.
In any event, even if Airbus have to pay a bit more to AF, I think that that would be cancelled by other compensations being not paid to the carriers receiving the A380 earlier than with the initial delay.

If Airbus has to pay only for the 6 months delay, then it's positive for them (at least in a 'compensation' point of view, not sure about PR).
 
flyAUA
Posts: 4287
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 3:12 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:16 pm

Quoting BoogyJay (Reply 4):
I don't know if the compensations could include the extra 6 month delay wanted by AF.
In any event, even if Airbus have to pay a bit more to AF, I think that that would be cancelled by other compensations being not paid to the carriers receiving the A380 earlier than with the initial delay.

If Airbus has to pay only for the 6 months delay, then it's positive for them (at least in a 'compensation' point of view, not sure about PR).

Very good point Boogy... come to think about it, this could have all been a set up on part of Air France and Airbus to solve this whole deliveries delay problem  stirthepot 

If that's the case, congratulations to Airbus and Air France for being smartasses  bigthumbsup 
Not drinking, also isn't a solution!
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 10:04 pm

High season on the Australia run is November-February. Qantas and Emirates (deliveries starting April 2007) might well consider doing the same sort of thing. Even Singapore Airlines, since their first delivery (November or December 2006) will probably be too late to get route testing, crew training etc. done in time to get a full season's value.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
redflyer
Posts: 3905
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 10:47 pm

Here's an English version of the article.
http://www.ttc.org/200511231052.janaqom16812.htm

What I don't understand is this sentence:

"Calavia said that delivery of the aircraft in the northern hemisphere autumn, which was a low season for air traffic, was of no interest to the airline."

Wouldn't that be the best time to take delivery of the aircraft since you could do all of your route and service testing as well as crew training during that slow period?

Also, is AF buying the aircraft for use during only peak season? I would think they bought it because they had routes they could pretty much fill most of the time.
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 10:58 pm

Presumably any aeroplane used by any airline has to fly with less than a full load at some times of year; and the A380 would be a very expensive aircraft to run if it was even 30% empty. That six-month delay has pushed deliveries into the autumn in both hemispheres - not the best situation.

Another question is what this might do to Airbus' production schedules if other airlines pick up on the same idea.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:08 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7):
What I don't understand is this sentence:

"Calavia said that delivery of the aircraft in the northern hemisphere autumn, which was a low season for air traffic, was of no interest to the airline."

Wouldn't that be the best time to take delivery of the aircraft since you could do all of your route and service testing as well as crew training during that slow period?

Depends which way you look at it, Air France is looking ahead knowing that they will not fill up the A380 during the off peak season and have opted to delay it. Also, they can observe other operations that will be flying the A380 and know what to expect....
NO URLS in signature
 
katekebo
Posts: 681
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2001 12:02 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:20 pm

Maybe AF has realized that they were too hasty to order the A380 and now they are questioning if this really need that big an airplane that fast - I think Virgin also asked for a delay in the delivery of their A380's. So the few month slip in deliveries by Airbus is an elegant way for AF to delay the "problem" of filling the whale-jet with passenger for a whole year. I think that the whole argument of not taking the airplane in the "low" season is just a pretext - which airline would buy an airplane that they can fly profitable only half of the year. So what will they do during the low seasons of the subsequent years - keep their A380 grounded? operate them at a loss?
 
flyAUA
Posts: 4287
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 3:12 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:29 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7):
Wouldn't that be the best time to take delivery of the aircraft since you could do all of your route and service testing as well as crew training during that slow period?

Yes that's a very valid point, I would have though so too. But to be honest with you, my gut instinct is that this whole thing is not a co-incidence... I wouldn't be surprised if AFR and Airbus decided to strike a "deal"  Wink

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7):
Also, is AF buying the aircraft for use during only peak season?

It is true for any aircraft that it will not always fly with full loads. Fluctuations in passenger numbers exist during the day (morning and evening peaks), during the week (Friday/Sunday peaks), during the year (summer peak), and during holidays (xmas/easter/etc... peaks). So it is quite normal that an airline will sometimes have lower loads than at other times since they can't magically shrink and stretch their aircraft  Wink

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 9):
Depends which way you look at it, Air France is looking ahead knowing that they will not fill up the A380 during the off peak season and have opted to delay it.

Or they might have been "offered" to do so Big grin
Not drinking, also isn't a solution!
 
airbazar
Posts: 10119
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:51 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7):
Wouldn't that be the best time to take delivery of the aircraft since you could do all of your route and service testing as well as crew training during that slow period?

From an operations perspective, maybe, but most businesses run on earnings.
I suspect taking delivery in October and then running the plane at sub-normal loads for a couple of months would impact the year-end earnigs in a negative way. At the same time it's too close to the busy holiday season. Imagine if there was a problem and an aircraft would have to be taken away from rotation during the busy Christmas season, that too could have a negative impact.

So why take these risks when you have the upper hand to negotiate what works best for you?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19751
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:09 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 2):
. I don't think Airbus will compensate for a whole year when they are only responsible for a 6 month delay... or will they?

 checkmark  But that shouldn't stop AF from trying to get every penny they can nor Airbus from trying to *not* pay for as much as they can.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 12):
I suspect taking delivery in October and then running the plane at sub-normal loads for a couple of months would impact the year-end earnigs in a negative way

 checkmark  While accepting the A380's right before the peak season ensures that instead of a poor 2007 for AF, they have a great 2008! AF *needs* to make enough profit off of the A380 during its first year to offset the launch costs. We stockholders are a finicky breed. (Note: I own zero AF at this time.)

This seems like a good thread to ask: Could the terminal "situation" at CDG have any impact on the desire to delay? I'm not trying to bash, it seems like an honest logistical reason not to fight a delay... Also, it seems to me that AF might be wishing to let the A380 "debug" a few more months before accepting delivery.

I'm surprised AF only took 4 options, was that discussed before?

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
jonathan-l
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 4:20 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:59 am

CDG 2E was major part in Air France A380 strategy and it cannot be used as it should be: the entire boarding building is still closed and all flights from CDG 2E must board by bus. This would be impossible with an A380.
I'm sure this was also taken into account in deferring deliveries.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:17 am

I like how this has been turned into one big positive spin by everyone here.

Simply indicative of the problems this plane is facing and another PR stumble for Airbus. Yes I realise new planes have all sorts of issues, but come one, this is starting to get a little too regular now.

Then again, I'm sure Air France wont kick up too much of a fuss. Far too humiliating if they did.
 
jonathan-l
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 4:20 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:04 pm

Again, I would like to reemphasize the fact that CDG, Air France's main hub, the only French airport that was set to accommodate the A380 for regular operations, cannot accommodate the A380 for the time being due to the collapse of part of the terminal CDG 2E.
I am almost 100% positive that Air France's first annoucement for deferring A380 deliveries occurred a few weeks after the CDG 2E "mishap"
 
astuteman
Posts: 7134
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:15 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 11):
Or they might have been "offered" to do so

No need to laugh, FlyAUA. Airbus have openly stated they have asked airlines if there's any scope to move delivery slots, and open up further sales potential. Sounds like they got a taker.
A
 
QFA001
Posts: 651
Joined: Sat May 27, 2000 6:47 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:26 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
Airbus have openly stated they have asked airlines if there's any scope to move delivery slots, and open up further sales potential. Sounds like they got a taker.

Hmmm. Good point. Does this open up slots for pre-Beijing Games deliveries to another China-based airline?

 airplane QFA001
 
PHXinterrupted
Posts: 461
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 6:41 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:33 pm

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 15):
like how this has been turned into one big positive spin by everyone here.

Simply indicative of the problems this plane is facing and another PR stumble for Airbus. Yes I realise new planes have all sorts of issues, but come one, this is starting to get a little too regular now.

Then again, I'm sure Air France wont kick up too much of a fuss. Far too humiliating if they did.

I agree, but considering who is posting, I'm not surprised.
Keepin' it real.
 
glacote
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:39 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
the A380 would be a very expensive aircraft to run if it was even 30% empty.

Humm... compared to what? Would you have a source for this? 30% empty wtih respect to what PAX capacity? On which route?

etc. etc.

Thank you for elaborating on your comment.
 
User avatar
HAWK21M
Posts: 30067
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 10:05 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:41 pm

Maybe their Cleaning Equipment Isnt ready yet  biggrin 
On a serious note.Is the delay also related to Infrastructure in place.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
sllevin
Posts: 3314
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:15 pm

Even if additional orders come in to take the delayed slots, this is nothing short of ominous.

These orders were placed in the past, and what this demonstrates is that traffic is not up to par with expectations. AF is not in the desperate need forseen of this lift, and it brings to mind...who else is in the same boat?

Steve
 
elvis777
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:23 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:29 pm

Hello Glacote,

Just a quick question on your post. You seem to be questioning the idea that the if the A380 is only 30% full on a certain flight that flight will not be an expensive loss for the airline. Is that what you are trying to get at? First without bringing any other aircraft into this post, what do you think would be the % load at which an a380 would not lose money (typical yield configuration)? Since, if I understood your post correctly, 30% would not be an expensive loss do you think 25% would lead to a large loss on that particular flight? Maybe 20% loads?

If the load factor (on a typical yield configuration) that leads to an airline making a profit with the A380 is anywhere 30% I would be very impressed!

Thanks

Elvis777
Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1666
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:12 pm

I would think that this has more to do with the terminal issue at CDG, as the price of the airplane goes up each month that it is delayed, do to the escalation of the price. Probably a couple percentage points over a 6 month period for the entire order. However, probably not that big of a deal if it is financed.

Cheers
 
n1786b
Posts: 385
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 6:10 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:13 pm

Nice little note in today's ATW article...

And I quote:

"Shortly after the results announcement, Spinetta and KLM President and CEO Leo van Wijk spoke with ATWOnline in Paris on a variety of topics. Spinetta revealed that AF expects late delivery of its first A380 and hopes to have it ready to fly in its summer 2008 schedule. "Originally it was planned to introduce the A380 on April 1, 2007. Now we have decided together with Airbus to have a late delivery. Anyway, that's no good news for us," he said, adding that the airline first will use the aircraft on service to Tokyo."

Doesn't sound like they were happy about this.

-n1786b

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=3194
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:56 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 24):
I would think that this has more to do with the terminal issue at CDG, as the price of the airplane goes up each month that it is delayed, do to the escalation of the price.

Usually the price escalation only applies if the buyer delays delivery. If the seller delays delivery there is no price escalation and the seller has to pay a late delivery penalty.
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1666
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:03 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 26):
Usually the price escalation only applies if the buyer delays delivery. If the seller delays delivery there is no price escalation and the seller has to pay a late delivery penalty.

Won't argue that point, but it sounded to me like it was AF wanting the delay. One has to wonder whats wrong with an April delivery/ May Inservice, as then they would be in place for the high season (summer).

Cheers
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:01 pm

This could be a clever strategy by AF to get compension from Airbus for the delays before cancelling the order outright. Watch for AF to order the B747-8.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7134
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:06 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 23):
You seem to be questioning the idea that the if the A380 is only 30% full on a certain flight that flight will not be an expensive loss for the airline

30% EMPTY, Elvis777. Doesn't sound unreasonable to me.
 
sparkingwave
Posts: 568
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:12 pm

Quoting Glacote (Reply 20):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
the A380 would be a very expensive aircraft to run if it was even 30% empty.

Humm... compared to what?

This would be compared to the difference if the aircraft was not 30% empty.

SparkingWave
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
anstar
Posts: 3264
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:22 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 6):
High season on the Australia run is November-February. Qantas and Emirates (deliveries starting April 2007) might well consider doing the same sort of thing. Even Singapore Airlines, since their first delivery (November or December 2006) will probably be too late to get route testing, crew training etc. done in time to get a full season's value.

QF are due to take delivery of their first aircraft in april 2007.

SYD-LHR is quite popular May-Sept (Nothern Summer)
 
jouy31
Posts: 308
Joined: Mon May 05, 2003 4:59 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:29 pm

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 14):
CDG 2E was major part in Air France A380 strategy and it cannot be used as it should be: the entire boarding building is still closed and all flights from CDG 2E must board by bus. This would be impossible with an A380.
I'm sure this was also taken into account in deferring deliveries.



Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 16):
Again, I would like to reemphasize the fact that CDG, Air France's main hub, the only French airport that was set to accommodate the A380 for regular operations, cannot accommodate the A380 for the time being due to the collapse of part of the terminal CDG 2E.
I am almost 100% positive that Air France's first annoucement for deferring A380 deliveries occurred a few weeks after the CDG 2E "mishap

Satellite S3, which will be able to handle the A380, is scheduled to start operations in Spring 2007 (source: Aeroports de Paris), so the collapse of part of CDG2E does not seem to be the main factor here.
 
Boogyjay
Topic Author
Posts: 436
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 1:29 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:06 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 6):
High season on the Australia run is November-February. Qantas and Emirates (deliveries starting April 2007) might well consider doing the same sort of thing.

I don't think so. They would never let SQ alone on the Kangaroo route for one whole year.

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 10):
I think Virgin also asked for a delay in the delivery of their A380's.

Yes, that was for their interior seat and luxury feature suppliers to improve weight (bar/shower/casino anyone?  Wink ).
Moreover, they have, along with EK and FX, expressed interest in the A389 so they probably don't think the 388 is too big of an airplane to fill.

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 10):
I think that the whole argument of not taking the airplane in the "low" season is just a pretext - which airline would buy an airplane that they can fly profitable only half of the year.

You can be damn sure AF (and the other airlines that have oredered the A380) have done their homework and that they came to the conclusion that the A380 will bring them good money. What you didn't think of is the acquisition cost for such a big baby. As other have said, at $XXX million, this would hit your year-end profits considerably, without having enough time to compensate with operating the plane (which will bring money as I said before, but obviously more during the peak season).

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 14):
CDG 2E was major part in Air France A380 strategy and it cannot be used as it should be: the entire boarding building is still closed and all flights from CDG 2E must board by bus.

 checkmark  That's a very good point. I forgot about it but that might very well have been of deep impact: CDG 2E will reopen during the winter 2007-2008. So CDG will be completely ready by Spring 2008.

Quoting Jouy31 (Reply 32):
Satellite S3, which will be able to handle the A380, is scheduled to start operations in Spring 2007 (source: Aeroports de Paris), so the collapse of part of CDG2E does not seem to be the main factor here.

Yes but first: it's according to ADP Big grin so they might miss this target (didn't it already happen with the opening of 2F? I remember that ADP completely miss the peak season by delaying the opening and AF was very upset) and second, how many A380 can S3 handle? I think it's something like 5 and it's maybe not enough.

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 15):
I like how this has been turned into one big positive spin by everyone here.



Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 19):
I agree, but considering who is posting, I'm not surprised.

Who are you talking about? As far as I'm concerned, I've tried to bring ideas in a completely objective manner, I'm no A or B cheerleader. I celebrate when AF order B773ER or Boeing launch the B748 as much as I do when the A380 makes its first flight. Why don't you just try to counter those objective ideas by other objective thoughts, just for everyone to have a nice reading, instead of bringing posts without added value?
Even the most pro-B cheerleaders (NAV to name one  Wink ) have come up with interesting ideas like "What about the EK's and QF's low seasons?".
I hope you will come back and contribute in a positive manner instead of pointing fingers.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
Airbus have openly stated they have asked airlines if there's any scope to move delivery slots, and open up further sales potential. Sounds like they got a taker.

Good idea again. To link that to NAV's thought, it might allow EK and QF to take delivery of a bit more aircraft before their peak-seasons in Autumn 2007.

Quoting N1786b (Reply 25):
Doesn't sound like they were happy about this.

 checkmark  AF is certainly not happy about the Airbus 6-month delay, which forces them to postpone the A380 further. However, thinking about that, I'd not express my happiness publicly if this delay was fitting well in my agenda (see the CDG 2E issue).

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
This could be a clever strategy by AF to get compension from Airbus for the delays before cancelling the order outright. Watch for AF to order the B747-8.

 Yeah sure Yeah... another of your "Airline X will cancel the A380 to order the B748" theory. Last time it was SQ, now AF... who's next?

For your own interest:

  • AF's objective analysis result: A380 (538 seats) will have a 9% lower seat-mile cost than the B744.
  • Boeing's subjective analysis result: A380 (542 seats) will have a 1% lower seat-mile cost than the B744.

Even with Boeing's subjective analysis stating the B748 will have a 7% lower seat-mile cost than the B744, it doesn't beat the A380. Now taking into consideration that AF's own analysis would bring that advantage to an even lower figure, you see that why I don't think AF will "get compension from Airbus for the delays before cancelling the order outright" and then "order the B747-8".  Yeah sure

And anyway, AF already stated that "the airline has no interest in a possible 747 Advanced because it "is trying to match the A380.".

Sources: ATWonline, May 20, 2005 and Boeing's 747.newairplane website
 
dutchjet
Posts: 7714
Joined: Sat Oct 14, 2000 6:13 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 8:27 pm

There is more to this story than we are hearing......and both AF and Airbus are trying to put positive spin on the entire situation (as they should).

The simple fact is that the A380 program is falling behind schedule, and Air France will further push its delivery schedule back by another six months (for whatever compensation is agreed to by the two companies) which will help prevent deliveries to other airlines from being further delayed....so simple is it. AF is simply accommodating Airbus....and pushing its A380 deliveries from the Autumn to the Summer is not a big deal for the airline, maybe even a benefit. AF can live with this, and as a result of this deal - Airbus will not further piss off EK, SQ and other airlines who are already annoyed by delays in the A380 program.

I am not anti-Airbus, and I support the A380, but the program is running late and Airbus is doing damage control here.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:44 pm

This thread seems to be in danger of reaching concensus!  Smile

I agree, Keesje, it's likely that Airbus and AF have agreed on the deal as a way of ensuring on-time delivery to more sensitive customers. Since the French Government is de facto the largest single shareholder in both Airbus and Air France, it's no surprise to find them working together. And it's a neat solution to the problem that hurts no-one.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:20 pm

Quoting BoogyJay (Reply 33):
Yeah... another of your "Airline X will cancel the A380 to order the B748" theory.

I didn't write "will cancel...." I wrote "could cancel...."

Do you not understand the difference? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you misquoted me out of carelessness rather than out of malice.
 
AF-A319
Posts: 567
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 1999 3:18 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:41 pm

I just heard an interview of Spinetta on BFM (available on podcast if you search for BFM and "interview du 12-15").

The AF CEO confirmed that the two 1st A380 destinations will be BEIJING and TOKYO instead of NYC and MONTREAL which were previously mentioned.

Sorry to all YUL spotters: you will have to wait!

By the way, Spinetta also said that he had NO concern at all about the A380 wake turbulence and its impact on Air Traffic Control.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:15 pm

Sorry, Dutchjet! Thanks, BoogyJay!
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
DAYflyer
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:18 pm

Quoting BBJII (Reply 1):
Someone MAY finally get the A380 on-time.

Not bloody likely.
One Nation Under God
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:30 pm

Years back I ran a project team that was designing and building a 50-storey office building for a Government pension fund. The project meetings were hard work because the 'client' had no experience whatever in the field. I particularly remember one of the early ones where we were talking about the completion date (which was all of four years away at that time).

The architect was trying to explain the difference between 'practical completion' (which is the point where the contractor is entitled to most of his money, subject to a long 'to do' list of outstanding items) and actual completion (which means that the tenants can start moving in).

At one point the client asked, "So can I tell the Minister that it will be complete by September 1992?"

The Architect replied, "As I've explained, it depends on what you mean by 'complete'."

And the Quantity Surveyor (who was responsible for the estimating and programming, and had the dry sense of humour essential to his calling) added, "AND it depends on what you mean by 1992......."
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Halibut
Posts: 943
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:43 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:54 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
There is more to this story than we are hearing......and both AF and Airbus are trying to put positive spin on the entire situation (as they should).

The simple fact is that the A380 program is falling behind schedule, and Air France will further push its delivery schedule back by another six months (for whatever compensation is agreed to by the two companies) which will help prevent deliveries to other airlines from being further delayed....so simple is it. AF is simply accommodating Airbus....and pushing its A380 deliveries from the Autumn to the Summer is not a big deal for the airline, maybe even a benefit. AF can live with this, and as a result of this deal - Airbus will not further piss off EK, SQ and other airlines who are already annoyed by delays in the A380 program.

So , is there a possiblity that this was a collective effort to avoid yet another delay ?

 scratchchin 

Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19751
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 2:09 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
This thread seems to be in danger of reaching concensus!

Oh no! Quick, inject politics!  duck 

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 16):
I am almost 100% positive that Air France's first annoucement for deferring A380 deliveries occurred a few weeks after the CDG 2E "mishap"

While the announcement did occur immediately afterward, there had been rumblings that AF was talking about a delay anyway.

While I know its way down the list of destinations, does anyone thing that by 2010 AF will fly the A380 to LAX?

Quoting AF-A319 (Reply 37):
The AF CEO confirmed that the two 1st A380 destinations will be BEIJING and TOKYO instead of NYC and MONTREAL which were previously mentioned.

Seems like a no brainer to me; the largest profits are always where the fastest growth is. NYC and Montreal are established markets. (Established in the Adam Smith terminology as compared to emerging markets.)

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Slarty
Posts: 302
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:23 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:31 am

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2005/11/23/afx2351392.html

I suspect that there is something substantially flawed with the A380 ... maybe the wake vortex problem is far more serious than expected?
 
Boogyjay
Topic Author
Posts: 436
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 1:29 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:37 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 43):
I suspect that there is something substantially flawed with the A380 ... maybe the wake vortex problem is far more serious than expected?

What makes you think that? Could you elaborate and give us your line of thoughts? Because I don't get to the same conclusion.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 6:48 am

Quoting BoogyJay (Reply 33):
I hope you will come back and contribute in a positive manner instead of pointing fingers.

I'm not trying to point fingers, just reacting to the posts prior to mine suggesting it was a relief and actually good for everyone concerned that Air France was delaying delivery. Read your own posts Boogyjay, apparently China Southern are going to get them, which is best for everyone, and Air france is doing it for economic reasons and pressure will be taken off Airbus and it's delays with delivering this thing.

Oh sure, none of that implies a financial loss for anyone concerned, right? Wrong. Air France delaying it will incur a loss in operations planning, in delivering the supposed financial returns that everyone keeps touting the A380 will deliver (assuming they are real). Why else would there be talk of compensation?

Though it probably is good for Airbus, as they avoid the humiliation of peeving off more carriers by further delays and delivering an underperforming jet. I would hardly call that an ideal outcome. This is fast developing into astory of minimising the damage.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7134
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 1:02 pm

Quoting Slarty (Reply 43):
I suspect that there is something substantially flawed with the A380 ... maybe the wake vortex problem is far more serious than expected?

You've been on here long enough to know the obvious flaw with the A380 - IT EXISTS  Yeah sure

You just need to look at the delight that so many A-netters have in creating any excuse possible to say/imply/infer that this aircraft will be a total failure to realise that.
I reckon we should petition Airbus to cancel the programme. Surely that would make all of us SO much happier  Angry
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 1:17 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 46):
You just need to look at the delight that so many A-netters have in creating any excuse possible to say/imply/infer that this aircraft will be a total failure to realise that.
I reckon we should petition Airbus to cancel the programme. Surely that would make all of us SO much happier

The opinions of A.netters will not affect when Airbus decide to cancel the WhaleJet program -- whether that be in 2006 or 2026. It will come down to orders. Orders will continue if the WhaleJet can offer substantially lower CASM than the B747-8. If not, then there is no reason for airlines to order it and it will soon be cancelled. It doesn't matter what A.netters think of the two planes, how much they like or dislike their nicknames, or where they think the price of petroleum is heading. The B747-8 beats the WhaleJet on size, airport compatibility, speed, unit operating cost, cabin air quality, and range. The WhaleJet simply _must_ win decisively on CASM.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 1:45 pm

Astuteman, you gotta admit, the Air France thing does open up a new question; whether, on top of all their other troubles, Airbus are facing a situation of not even being able to produce A380s at a satisfactory rate?

As to cancellation, you know my oft-repeated opinion that they should have done that years ago, as soon as the orders dried up. I'd suppose that it's too late now, they'll just have to plug on with it.

Besides, the A380 may be 'off the front page' soon. Looking at the current dearth of orders for Airbus' mid-sized range, it may be that the question we will all be debating in a few months' time is whether they should cancel the A350 programme.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
JetMaster
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Air France Postpones A380 To April'08

Fri Nov 25, 2005 2:54 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 48):
As to cancellation, you know my oft-repeated opinion that they should have done that years ago, as soon as the orders dried up.

What is your definition of "drying up"? Two months after getting big orders from several of the world's most successful airlines? Or eight months? One year? More than 150 orders prior to EIS is a respectable number.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 48):
I'd suppose that it's too late now, they'll just have to plug on with it.

There are no indications Airbus has ever thought about cancelling the project, and they won't do it any time.

I know it's hard for you and your Airbus paranoia because you will have to avoid certain QF routes in the future... Wink

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 48):
Besides, the A380 may be 'off the front page' soon.

Wishful thinking...


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos