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keesje
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Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 6:56 pm

Dixon recently confirmed Qantas will announce their fleet decision on December 7.

Internally they must have made a decision by now, Airbus, Boeing, RR, GE, Leasing companies and others probably have a pretty good idea on the outcome. So where are the signals, leaks, rumors, overconfidents, frustrated?

Seems logical that they will go for a simplified fleet, not too many types.

Will A330 / A380 commonality play a role?

Outcomes could be:

A. A mix of more A380's, B773ER's, A358's and wait a little longer what happens for the ULH (improved 772LR, A345/6, 388R)?

B. A380's, B773ER/2LR's and 783's?

C. B773ER's and 789/3's?

Thing is the B773ER and A359 seem both good candidates but a combination of those two unlikely.

Do the 747-8 and (renewed) A340-600 still have a chance? Boeing said they expect no more 747-8 sales this year. The improved 346 would be years away..

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00003891.jpg

What is the likely down to earth, low-risc, economical fleet solution for Qantas? Any politics playing a role?

[Edited 2005-11-30 10:58:14]
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777ER
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:07 pm

Strong rumors are suggesting its Boeings order, so B773s, B772s, B787-3 and 8s. A340s were apparantly ruled out ages ago.

We might never know, but maybe NZs order for B772s and B787s influnenced QF.
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 1):
We might never know, but maybe NZs order for B772s and B787s influnenced QF.

IIRC at the time QF ordered A380s they did say that SQ's decision had partly influenced their decision.

Boeing's Sales Team used to start their daily meeting with the question "Where's Leahy?"

The answer, today, is Sydney

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malb777
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:16 pm

My tip will be for a mix of 772 & 773 for longer routes and 787's for regional routes . no larger type ie 748 or additional A380 as yet , I think QF will keep the 744 for a while and see what becomes of the promises from both camps before commiting to an more of the larger jets

{my 2 cents}
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:20 pm

Quoting Malb777 (Reply 3):
My tip will be for a mix of 772 & 773 for longer routes and 787's for regional routes

Thats what the RFPs were for, as well as A345/6 and A350s
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:33 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
A340-600 still have a chance

No way!!! was ruled out ages ago, who wants a fuel guzzler??
Qantas, Still calling Australia Home.........
 
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:38 pm

Is the 772LR still in the picture?

Did Boeing offer a LR 250 seat version of the 777-300(LR)?

Do ETOPS requirements play a role in Australia - US network planning?

What I heard is that Qantas pilots were behind the controls of the A380 months ago & few uncertainties on the A380 are left. Maybe Q pressed for a A380LR?
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:43 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Will A330 / A380 commonality play a role?

Considering that the 747-8 will share the same type rating as the 747-4, seems that Qantas could pool their pilots on the 747s just as easily as the A380s.

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keesje
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:54 pm

Succesfull selling point of Airbus recently has been A330/A350 deals.

Sichuan Airlines is another airline that just fell for it. Advantage: good proven planes next year

Is Qantas willing to wait for 5 years for introduction of new 787s/A350s?

[Edited 2005-11-30 11:56:16]
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:54 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Is the 772LR still in the picture?

Did Boeing offer a LR 250 seat version of the 777-300(LR)?

Yes and yes. Boeing have offered QF the B772LR (to meet QFs requests) of having an aircraft that can do non-stop SYD-LHR in both directions. Extra fuel tanks would be installed
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 8:28 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
s Qantas willing to wait for 5 years for introduction of new 787s/A350s?

It's a fleet replacement, and the 787 is available in 2 plus years. Carson stated they are saving slots.


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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 8:39 pm

Dixon has also recently been saying that DFW is an intersting prospect due to the availability of the connections offered by AA, it would be a route used by the 772LR. It is also a route that would not require the all business class cabin that would be used for LHR non stop.
It would be route the 345 could most likely also do, however it does seem that 340's are not being actively considered. As a matter of interest the only airlines actually using the 345 for ULH routes is SQ and TG to LAX and JFK, EK's and AC's routes could be offered by other aircraft already in their fleets.
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 9:10 pm

772LR is definitely in the mix.
777 will win IMO, but that's not a hard one to guess.
748 may be in the mix. It has been offered by Boeing. I'm not sure.
783 appears to be not considered and any 787 order would likely be a 788/9 combo.
A358/9 are in the mix and could be the type of choice for JQ international and/or AO, and/or FJ.
Order will be huge. Chairman Jackson stated in an interview last week that the order was likely to include 100+ aircraft(obviously a lot of options) and reiterated that QF were looking for ULH aircraft to hub bust(DFW/ORD/JFK were mentioned), smaller aircraft to overfly hubs and a 763 domestic and Trans Tasman replacement.
Both OEMs are likely to get a piece of the pie. Boeing appears to be favoured to win the bigger share but Airbus' presence in SYD lately has been most obvious. Leahy and co will fight tooth and nail.
And the killer is that the decision may not be made public after the Dec 7 Board meeting.
 
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 9:38 pm

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 12):
And the killer is that the decision may not be made public after the Dec 7 Board meeting.

What would that achieve? ... Drats!

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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 10:16 pm

QF has been a long tiem Boeing customer. They were the reason for the 744ER and my tip is they are one of the prime candidates for the 748. The 748 makes a lot of sense, economically and are a direct replacement for the what will be 20 year old 744's. The BIG point is there are a number of QF destinatiuons that do NOT cater for the A380.

MY TIP is a big order for the 748 whilst they await and see how good the A380 really is. The 767 replacement will likely be a combination of 777 models and 787 models. ALTHOUGH the A330 is still a possibility
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 10:33 pm

Quoting Pilotdude09 (Reply 5):
No way!!! was ruled out ages ago, who wants a fuel guzzler??

Branding the A346 a fuel guzzler is stupid to say the least. Yes, the 346 is inferior to the 77W, but compared to the current QF fleet, it would be the most fuel efficient aircraft. Don't rule that airplane out yet, Leahy may have a big mouth but the guy is capable of selling snow to Eskimos. You don't know what sort of deal he may be preparing for QF.
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 10:49 pm

My guess is that the bulk of the order will go to Boeing - 772LRs and 787s for certain, maybe 777ERs and 748s.

But that politics will dictate that some orders are given to Airbus; but that these will be for use by their low-cost carrier, not Qantas per se. And I don't know which types; possibly A330s or A346s for their proposed new holiday routes. I doubt that A350s will figure; I would think that Qantas would be reluctant to buy another Airbus project 'off the drawing board' at the present time.

The only thing that would really surprise me (knowing Qantas) would be if anything was actually announced on December 7th. They'll probably be asked to keep it quiet until John Howard can announce the decision on a suitable 'political' occasion. My guess would be mid-December at the earliest.

[Edited 2005-11-30 15:09:17]
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Wed Nov 30, 2005 11:53 pm

IF they go for the T7, what would they do with the South America and South Africa routes? Would they use only 744s on them? The A346 would be the alternative.

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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 12:00 am

Quoting A350 (Reply 17):
IF they go for the T7, what would they do with the South America and South Africa routes? Would they use only 744s on them? The A346 would be the alternative.

South America is a code share only at the moment. I have no idea about Johannesburg.

Trent.
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kiwiandrew

RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 12:16 am

Quoting A350 (Reply 17):
IF they go for the T7, what would they do with the South America and South Africa routes? Would they use only 744s on them? The A346 would be the alternative.

South America is LA ops on an A340 - can't see this changing , at least not before it has gone daily on current equipment which I think is still a couple of years off.


SYD-JNB would require ETOPS 330 .... QF are very conservative when it cames to safety issues so I can't see them rushing into anything like that on that route even though the 744 is slightly too large - the traffic can't support daily services - just 4-5 per week , I think it will continue on 744 for many years to come (unless of course SA axe their codeshare on QF metal and restart their own JNB-SYD with A346 in which case it is entirely possible that QF could abandon Africa again which would render the equipment issue irrelevant )
 
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 12:35 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
What is the likely down to earth, low-risc, economical fleet solution for Qantas?

IMHO its going to be a Qantas group purchase, with maybe the majority of the airframes going elsewhere in the QF group.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Any politics playing a role?

Some news from the Australian International Pilots Association (the QF pilot union) which give a little insight on how QF management has been looking at the latest QF pilot Enterprise Bargaining Agreement (EBA).

A380
The EBA, if approved, gives QF pilots certainty that will be crewing the A380. There are no other airlines in the world that have yet negotiated pay and conditions on this aircraft. Others to purchase the A380 include Malaysia, Singapore, Emirates and Qatar; and they will be among the first to set the benchmark for pay and conditions on this aircraft.

If AIPA secure the A380, guaranteed by approving this EBA, I am confident that the AIPA negotiators of the time will get the best outcome with a set of unique conditions to suit the operation of this magnificent aeroplane.

Jetstar International
I have been advised in the boldest and crudest terms that rejecting this EBA will be the end of any opportunity to be considered for crewing aircraft in this business when it develops. The message is very clear.

Jetstar Domestic
We currently have opportunities for 1 in 3 jobs that develop in Jetstar from all forms of market growth and not just those that might be seen to have been transferred from Qantas. We do not therefore have to reject the EBA to achieve this.

Offshore bases
The package for the proposed Singapore base for B744 Second Officers has been negotiated on the basis that no one who accepts the offer will be worse off. The very strong likelihood is that those who go to Singapore will be better off in financial terms.
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Hamlet69
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 3:26 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Seems logical that they will go for a simplified fleet, not too many types.

It would, but then this is QF. . .  Wink

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
A. A mix of more A380's, B773ER's, A358's and wait a little longer what happens for the ULH (improved 772LR, A345/6, 388R)?

B. A380's, B773ER/2LR's and 783's?

C. B773ER's and 789/3's?

All indications so fars is that it will be some combination of what you have stated here.

- I have not heard definitively one way or another, but I don't believe we will see either more A380s and/or an order for the 747-8 at this point. Perhaps sometime next year, yes. IMO, the 747-8 does not stand a good chance, and more A380s will be ordered when the time comes.

- The 777-200LR appears to certainly be one of the aircraft chosen. The question mark actually hangs over the -300ER, and whether they will be firm orders, or just options at this time. Any A340 appears to be out of the picture.

- The 787-3 is also out of the picture. For QF mainline, the aircraft to be chosen will be the 787-8 and -9HGW.

- The A350 will also be ordered (though I have not heard -800 or -900). These aircraft will go to some combination of JQ Int'l, AO and possibly FJ.


Therefore, based on what rumors are out there, the Dec. 7th (or later) announcement will look something like this:

777-200LR/-300ER
787-8/-9HGW
A35X


Regards,

Hamlet69
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kiwiandrew

RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 3:31 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 21):
- The A350 will also be ordered (though I have not heard -800 or -900). These aircraft will go to some combination of JQ Int'l, AO and possibly FJ.

interesting - didn't FJ sign an LOI on the A330 a few years ago and then never go any further with the deal ? they could be a good option - bigger than the 767 and with better freight capacity for those routes where they still operate them and smaller than the 744 so they might be able to up frequency on NAN-LAX to daily
 
JetMaster
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 3:36 am

Quoting Pilotdude09 (Reply 5):
No way!!! was ruled out ages ago, who wants a fuel guzzler??

What an amateurish comment...  Yeah sure


Regards,
JM
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FCKC
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:06 am

Surely the 777-200LR will be ordered , thus probably the 300ER.
If they are OK to buy from only one manufacturer , thus no way here for any Airbus products.
 
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:25 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 24):
If they are OK to buy from only one manufacturer , thus no way here for any Airbus products.

What are you talking about? Since when are they buying A380s from Boeing? If they give this order to Boeing they are still buying Airbus jets (A380).
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:53 am

Quoting Jetfuel (Reply 14):
QF has been a long tiem Boeing customer. They were the reason for the 744ER and my tip is they are one of the prime candidates for the 748. The 748 makes a lot of sense, economically and are a direct replacement for the what will be 20 year old 744's. The BIG point is there are a number of QF destinatiuons that do NOT cater for the A380.

I doubt we will see the 747-800 in QF colours.

12 A380's are due to come online to fly the LAX/LHR runs at the top of the market and the RFP is for a 744 replacement (ie 773er or A346). That would replace the other 744's on routes such as JNB, FRA, BNE-LAX etc on te lower end.
My bet would be the 773er with 772lr add on. I still think we will see the 772lr doing PER-LHR, SYD-DFW/ORD/JFK before SYD-LHR non stop.

787 has to beat the A350... the 767's are ripe for replacing. QF should have learnt their lesson with the A330's...its just to big
 
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:55 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
Succesfull selling point of Airbus recently has been A330/A350 deals.

Sichuan Airlines is another airline that just fell for it. Advantage: good proven planes next year

Is Qantas willing to wait for 5 years for introduction of new 787s/A350s?

Who said that couldn't get the 777 next year? Who also said they would have to wait 5 years for the 787? That's your A350 that's at least 5 years away, thanks.
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garpd
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:59 am

A Boeing order would produce some mighty fine looking twins.

http://img310.imageshack.us/img310/9248/fleet10ao.jpg
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JetMaster
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:01 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 27):
That's your A350 that's at least 5 years away, thanks.

I thought Airbus will build that plane?  Wink


Regards,
JM
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:11 am

I forsee:

Large numbers (20+) of 777-300ER with OPTIONS on a number more, including the 200LR. When it is proven it can do LHR-SYD non-stop in both directions, year-round, then they will go for it. Until then the 773ER is the best option, so they will buy it.

Five more A380s.

Lots of 737NGs.

I'd say the above is pretty much a given.

The battle lies in the mid-size category i'd say.

Its 787 vs A350, and there will be some really hard bargaining going on. My gut feeling says they will go for a number of both variants of the A350. A 77ER/787 combo could swing it, but I think Airbus will get this one.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:15 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 25):
Since when are they buying A380s from Boeing?

First Boeing would have to buy them from SQ.  duck 

Quoting Anstar (Reply 26):
I doubt we will see the 747-800 in QF colours.

Agreed, though we might we the B787-8 in QF colours.  Wink
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:20 am

I would respectfully contend that a massive Airbus order would make a lot of sense too but politics dictate that it will not happen.

5 more A380.
Lots of A32X series.
Large mix of A350 of both variants.
15 A346HGW

Existing A330 fleet bought back, and a great deal on the Trent support for the A350/A346/A380 fleet - the above package undercutting Boeing by a significant degree, and I think QF would be go for it.

Granted, the 773ER is a superior plane to the A346HGW (it is assumed) - but the commonality issue, already having type rated pilots/infrastructure, the availability of the Trent for simplification MX reasons, and the 4 engines ETOPS thing for routes dead east and dead west could swing it.

Remember the A346HGW will still offer similar capacity with better economics than the 747 fleet they have at the moment.

I think it has a better chance than people realise.

Wont happen of course, as Politics play a part, but if i was the QF fleet planner i'd look seriously at it, as its not as daft an idea as most on here seem to think.

[Edited 2005-11-30 21:23:10]
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
kappel
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:25 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 28):
A Boeing order would produce some mighty fine looking twins

If they go for the 77W they need a c/s. It's far too white for such a long aircraft IMHO.
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Ken777
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:30 am

The QF order is the one I can't wait to see as I fly more miles on them than any other airline. I'm looking for Boeing to get the order for QF, mainly 777s and 787s. I would not be surprised if there are a few 747-8s in the order as the 380 will not serve all of their SYD - US needs. The LAX-SYD noon flight might well remain a 747 and, if QF is able to fly SYD-DFW-SYD or SYD-ORD-SYD their loads out of LAX might fall to the point where a 747 is a better size for at least a percentage of the flights. Maybe 380s on heavy days and 747s on light days.
 
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:32 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 32):
Wont happen of course, as Politics play a part, but if i was the QF fleet planner i'd look seriously at it, as its not as daft an idea as most on here seem to think.

You say "politics," I say "broken performance/delivery guarantees by Airbus."
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keesje
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:36 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 27):
Who also said they would have to wait 5 years for the 787

A guy named Alan Mulally, ever heard of him?

"With the success the 787 has been experiencing--essentially being sold out for the first three years of production--we're getting more interest for interim lift with the 767"
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
NYC777
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:39 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 36):
A guy named Alan Mulally, ever heard of him?

"With the success the 787 has been experiencing--essentially being sold out for the first three years of production--we're getting more interest for interim lift with the 767"

It is very possible that QF put down deposits to reserve early production slots. Even if they haven't, if Boeing can increase production after the first full year of 787 production then it might be entirely possible for QF to get the 787 in '09. We'll all know the answer to that in mid '06.
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Rj111
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:40 am

I don't think QF will ever fly the 748. There's just no need for 773ER's, A380's and 748's in the same fleet. That's assuming they order 773's.
 
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keesje
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 5:56 am

What if Qantas has come to the conclusion directs flights to LHR are not a good idea at this moment.

One thing : a A359 using 1x% less fuel then the 777-200ER/LR, at the same time Boeing has put backward a 787-10 in favor of the 747-8 and 777.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
NYC777
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 6:03 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 39):
One thing : a A359 using 1x% less fuel then the 777-200ER/LR, at the same time Boeing has put backward a 787-10 in favor of the 747-8 and 777.

The A359 is not even flying yet and I would be suspicious of Airbus claims vs. any Boeing product given their past history. One should also remember that the A359 cannot compete with the 772LR because it serves two different markets.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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garpd
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So

Thu Dec 01, 2005 6:09 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 39):
One thing : a A359 using 1x% less fuel then the 777-200ER/LR, at the same time Boeing has put backward a 787-10 in favor of the 747-8 and 777.

To be fair, you cannot gaurantee that. The a350 has not even left the drawing board yet.
There is no way you can claim that as an advantage this early.

If anything, experience tells us to take anything Leahy says with a generous helping of salt.

[Edited 2005-11-30 22:13:56]
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zvezda
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So

Thu Dec 01, 2005 6:13 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 38):
There's just no need for 773ER's, A380's and 748's in the same fleet.

I disagree. The gap between the B777-300ER and the WhaleJet is almost too large to leave unfilled. I expect more than one WhaleJet operator will order the B747-8.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 6:22 am

"Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7"

How nice it would be to get a nice big fat Boeing order on my birthday.  birthday 

If they really want to light the candles on my cake, they'd order a few 748's.  Smile
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
Sydscott
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:01 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 30):
Large numbers (20+) of 777-300ER with OPTIONS on a number more, including the 200LR. When it is proven it can do LHR-SYD non-stop in both directions, year-round, then they will go for it. Until then the 773ER is the best option, so they will buy it.

Five more A380s.

Lots of 737NGs.

I'd say the above is pretty much a given.

The battle lies in the mid-size category i'd say.

Its 787 vs A350, and there will be some really hard bargaining going on. My gut feeling says they will go for a number of both variants of the A350.

I'll agree with you on the 777. We probably see an order for around 20 airframes of varying types plus options. It depends no how good of a job Boeing does in selling QF on the extra fuel tanks for the 772LR as it would be most appealing for QF to be able to offer direct SYD-LHR and SYD-DFW using it if possible. It also opens up SYD-Vancouver direct if they wanted to.

I disagree on the A380. I don't think they will exercise any options just yet especially when the aircraft is unproven in commercial operations. I think a follow on order from them is likely but not at this stage. At the same time if the A380 proves to be the success that Airbus is promising then I don't see a need for the 747-8 in QF's fleet at all.

Nor do I think you will see any order for the 737NG. QF mainline 737 flying is not expanding at all really as Jetstar is being used as the growth vehicle. So I think it likely you will see an exercise of Airbus A320 options as part of this order to allow for JQ growth into more Australian Regional centres and New Zealand.

In terms of the A350 vs 787 your guess is as good as mine at this stage. Again a mixed order is the most likely given these aricraft will be expected to perform on domestic, regional asian and long haul one stops using AO/JQ International and QF. Who gets what will end up coming down to who is willing to offer the best deal. The only winner out of all of this is going to be QF as they play the salesmen off against one another.

In terms of the A340, I think it has always been a non starter. I don't think there is a place for a handful of either A345's or A346's in the QF fleet really as that would defeat the purpose of buying large common fleets which this order is about. Certainly some of the aircraft in this order will be used to replace the 743's and then probably the non RR 744's and some of QF's older 744's. But there is no imperative to replace the entire fleet with a current model aircraft when QF can wait for a few more years and have a new generation one.
 
LY777
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:07 am

I would say 777s or A350s
the A340 is outdated I think
Flown:717,727,732,733,734,735,738,73H,742/744/748,752,753,762/2ER/763/3ER,772/77E/773/77W, 788, 789, DC8,DC10,E190,E195,MD83,MD88, L1011, A3B2,A319,A320-100/200,A321,A332/A333,A343,A388
 
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glideslope
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:07 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
I disagree. The gap between the B777-300ER and the WhaleJet is almost too large to leave unfilled. I expect more than one WhaleJet operator will order the B747-8.

Many more. Exactly why Mr. Leahy is in Sidney. I'm interested in seeing a recent photo of Mr. Leahy. I'll wager he does not look well.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
Rj111
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
I disagree. The gap between the B777-300ER and the WhaleJet is almost too large to leave unfilled. I expect more than one WhaleJet operator will order the B747-8

Think about it though 3 aircraft types for a relatively small variation in capacity. I think rotating the 773ER and the A380 if necessary would be more logical.

The only exception would be if an airline is hell bent on the 748F, then adding the Pax 748 would make little difference.
 
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keesje
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So..?

Thu Dec 01, 2005 8:51 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 44):
I don't think they will exercise any options just yet especially when the aircraft is unproven in commercial operations.

I think 10 A380´s have to fly for ten years before some members here will consider it proven   More then 30 airlines pilots including QF flew it already, immense quantities of data are collected and shared with customers. Extreme tests have been accomplished..

Uncertainties have been reduced to very small percentages.

At the same time all 787 & 747-8 data is taken as a given..

http://coppermine.luchtzak.be/albums/userpics/10001/PatCM1Lite.jpg
The Belgium EK captain that flew the A380 during the Airshow)

[Edited 2005-12-01 00:54:09]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas Long Haul Fleet Decision Due Dec. 7, So

Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:02 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 47):
Think about it though 3 aircraft types for a relatively small variation in capacity.

Relatively small variation in capacity? Between the B777-300ER and the A380-800? Seat counts are subjective, so let's compare cabin floor areas. 552.5 sq meters for the WhaleJet vs. 330.4 sq meters for the B777-300ER. That's a 67.2% increase. My opinion remains: that is too large a gap to leave unfilled.

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