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dhefty
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:43 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 96):
Why don't you just stick to the topic rather than switching to personal and silly off-topic tattles again and again

I totally agree JM. In fact, these personal attacks get rather tiresome. Boeing has been the Superman in aviation for a long time and has endured many attacks over the years. And so have you.

But getting back to the topic, there is no reason to suspect that a few recent B777-300ER orders are going to cause the demise of Airbus. Far from it. The Airbus backlog is solid. The A330 is selling well and the A350 is off to a good start. Yes, the A340 is dying. So what? Is the B767 setting the world on fire? No. Models come and go.

Contrary to some posts you have made, I do not think the A380 will be a big success. But as an aircraft aficionado, I have to respect Airbus for making the massive investment required to get that behemoth off the ground. And conversely, I also must agree with those who feel that it might represent the ultimate in European hubris, even greater than the Concorde.

Even though I started a thread a few month ago entitled "Who will be the first to cancel an A380 order?", I have since realized that a cancellation or two is not really all that significant. Yes, I stuck a stick into an antpile, but did it produce anything other that various a.netters running haphazardly through the nest? No. The A380 sets new standards. Is there really a market for it? Hmmm.

Airbus has done well with the A320 family, and to a limited extent with the A330.

Don't step on Superman's cape.
 
astuteman
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:23 pm

First step.

Quoting N60659 (Reply 35):
The numero uno priority for Airbus now should be ensuring that the A380's induction into the various fleets be as seamless and flawless as possible. Airbus has endured a period of falling short on performance and delivery guarantees. In today's world, it becomes imperative to deliver on promises.

To me, this is absolutely the first priority. It's the biggest investment. It has the potential to provide the biggest return (in margin terms). Most importantly, it's Airbus's first chance moving forward to prove that it can meet/exceed the requirements of the customer airlines. The A380 HAS to do that. It's the SINGLE most important thing Airbus has to do right now. FWIW, for these reasons I think that the A380 design will evolve very quickly (newer engines, improved materials, etc).

Narrowbodies

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 88):
Airbus has little incentive to strike first. Because it would be their first composite fuselage airliner, Boeing could size up Airbus's efforts, know what they needed for a superior offering, and still get to market first. My money is on Boeing going first

Agree completely. I cannot for the life of me see Airbus moving first. They have to see Boeing's hand first. The gap will be small, though  Smile FWIW, I'm not a great believer in first mover advantage. Being second to the market doesn't seem to have hurt Boeing very much.

Mid-size widebody

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 51):
At this point the 350 is launched. The worst thing that Airbus could do would be a clean sheet design at this point.

I agree once again. As you said Air Frnt, this bed is now made. For me initial indications are that the A350 is good ENOUGH to be able to sell. It may not hit 50% market share, but seems to be good enough to be a natural for typical A330 operators upgrading. Airbus have to make this plane as good as possible, and DELIVER

Large widebody.

Sadly, I don't think Airbus will launch the big twin just yet. As advertised, I think they will soldier on with the A345/6E for a little while. However, I think that it will, again, need to be competitive ENOUGH to appeal to existing type users. I personally think the A346E will have a lot more done to it than Airbus is currently suggesting (because it needs it..)
I think Airbus will live with being second fiddle here for a while , provided it's not completely wiped out, and watch for the Y3 coming.

As I said above, I think the A389, when it comes will already look like an "A350'd" A380. I think that will have been caused by the 748's arrival. I think you'll see 3rd Gen Al-Li widely used (I think the GLARE may even disappear). I think you'll see next-gen engines, be it a T1000'd T900, or, (more likely for me) a T1700. If the A346E proposals are any measure, there's 6%-7% improvement sitting there for the taking.

I don't think Airbus will DIRECTLY tackle the 748 with a smaller, lighter A387. I think they'll go the other way. I think any 387 version will be top MTOW, new gen engines, new materials all round (composite wing-boxes even?), and be targeted as a very large 9500Nm+ hub-buster in a niche which it, and only it, has the capability to hit.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 82):
I disagree often with JetMaster and Astuteman, but they bring valid points to the discussion

Many thanks AirFrnt. I may favour one manufacturer, but studiously try to avoid cheerleading. Hope I continue to succeed.  Smile

Quoting N60659 (Reply 45):
There was a very informative article on the integration of the 787 a few months ago:

Thanks, N60659. Most informative  checkmark 
 
iwok
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:26 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 96):
Then Airbus is finally down as often predicted on a.net and in 40 years NAV20 won't have to ask his travel agent any longer to avoid Airbus planes for reservations...

 rotfl  rotfl  rotfl 

iwok
 
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:37 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 82):
But even EK, the poster child for the A380, is now talking about using the A380 in a LCC setup rather then a traditional international carrier. That eliminates the need for a three class setup.

Holy crap an A380 in all economy.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 88):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 72):
Keep banging out more aircraft then Boeing for years to come?

Building white-tails is not a good business strategy.

Thats an excellent way of explaining reply 72 Big grin
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Shenzhen
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:55 pm

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 95):
I want to change the focus of the thread slightly; why is it that the on time dispatch rate for certain of the Airbus models is not good. What bits and pieces do they use that Boeing doesn't, that give the trouble?

I don't think it is any "one" bit or piece, but all of them taken as a whole. Boeing excels in integration, which is a requirement when putting all the different airplane pieces, from all the different vendors, together.
 
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keesje
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:05 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 103):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 88):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 72):
Keep banging out more aircraft then Boeing for years to come?

Building white-tails is not a good business strategy.

Thats an excellent way of explaining reply 72

In reality backlog: >1500 contracted

Boeing has done very good business this year, especially on the 777 site. But suggesting Airbus is in problems is just a step to far, looking at there profits, production boosts, sales and new programs..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
kaneporta1
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:13 pm

I'll state it once again, Airbus' priorities are:
A380
A380F(different to the pax 380, because of the 620t MTOW provision)
A400M
A350

As long as composite fuselages go, don't count on it that it's the way to go, weight and stress properties of advanced metals like new Al-Li alloys or Glare (and Glare 2 soon) are the same as CF at more than half the cost.

Back to the topic, what's gonna happen if Airbus loses the QF order? Nothing much, the 350 is already selling very well, and when the 380 proves itslef in service for a year or so you're gonna see many new and follow up orders for that aircraft.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
astuteman
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:21 pm

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 106):

Way off thread, but have a read of this guy's signature....

 rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl 

Love it!
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:25 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 107):
Way off thread, but have a read of this guy's signature....

Love it!

Mr. Astute, what is the world coming to? I find myself agreeing with you at long last!

Regards,
Sal

 bigthumbsup 
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jetfuel
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:35 pm

If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?


CRY
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
soylentgreen
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:21 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 63):
The B747-8 is NOT based on Dreamliner technology. It is only enhanced with some B787 features.

Whoa, nothing could be further from the truth Udo. Boeing's press releases state that they will incorporate as many of the new technologies of the 787 into the 747-800. Otherwise, what's the point of making it? The 747-400 wasn;t selling as is.
 
boeingbus
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:36 am

Quoting Soylentgreen (Reply 110):
ECTED TEXT
Soylentgreen From United States, joined Jul 2005, 50 posts, RR: 0

The 747-8 will use very little from the 787. 747 will continue to have the 777 look interior. 747 will not be FBW. 747 will not have any of the comfort features that the 787 will have like higher humidity, and lower cabin pressure.

The 747 will be stretched, have a modified wing, improved engines based on the genx core (NOT the 787 engines), and cockpit updates to have some commonalities to the 777. 747 will most likely have some weight saving materials, as well.

The 747 can get away with this because there is NO competition in the 450 seater. The A380 is a different animal altogether.

Cheers,

Ric
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
atmx2000
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:48 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 106):
Back to the topic, what's gonna happen if Airbus loses the QF order? Nothing much, the 350 is already selling very well, and when the 380 proves itslef in service for a year or so you're gonna see many new and follow up orders for that aircraft.

The A350 revenue stream won't come online in any significant manner until much later. They do have A330 revenue, but that stream will start to dry up in about three years when the 787 comes into the market and airlines only buy the A330 to incrementally raise capacity of existing fleets.

Quoting Soylentgreen (Reply 110):
press releases state that they will incorporate as many of the new technologies of the 787 into the 747-800. Otherwise, what's the point of making it? The 747-400 wasn;t selling as is.

While the new engines are technologies being used on the 787, they are not technologies of the 787. They are just engines. Other than that the advantages of the 747-8 are the stretch and improved aerodynamics. Hardly would call any of those 787 technologies.

The reason for the 747-8 is to update the 747 by boosting capacity, range and fuel efficiency by taking advantage of almost two decades worth of engine advancements and improvements in aerodynamics. Doing so makes the 747 comparable in capability in terms of range to other modern airliners while increasing separation in terms of capacity from the 773ER and A346 that are below it and keeping CASM lower than the heavy A388.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
atmx2000
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:02 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 106):
As long as composite fuselages go, don't count on it that it's the way to go, weight and stress properties of advanced metals like new Al-Li alloys or Glare (and Glare 2 soon) are the same as CF at more than half the cost.

You are ignoring the fact that the CF fuselage is not simply skin but a weight bearing structure. The properties are not equivalent because the the CF fuselage is doing far more than just keeping the atmosphere inside the jet.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
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Stitch
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:10 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 112):
The A350 revenue stream won't come online in any significant manner until much later. They do have A330 revenue, but that stream will start to dry up in about three years when the 787 comes into the market and airlines only buy the A330 to incrementally raise capacity of existing fleets.

If I am not mistaken, most of the money is handed over at delivery. There are hundreds of A330s and scores of A340s to be delivered even if they never record another order (which we know is extremely unlikely). Are they all expected to be delivered by 2009? And even if they are, the A380 deliveries will be in their stride and then Airbus has plenty of A319/A32x deliveries, so I don't think Airbus will be in danger of a "cash crisis".
 
norcal
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:18 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 114):
If I am not mistaken, most of the money is handed over at delivery. There are hundreds of A330s and scores of A340s to be delivered even if they never record another order (which we know is extremely unlikely).

I know with Boeing, at least according to the tour guide, that 1/3 is due at deposit, another 1/3 due before painting, and the final third due at delivery. I guess Airbus probably has the same thing?

I don't see any sort of a cash crisis for Airbus
 
N79969
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:21 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 114):
If I am not mistaken, most of the money is handed over at delivery. There are hundreds of A330s and scores of A340s to be delivered even if they never record another order (which we know is extremely unlikely). Are they all expected to be delivered by 2009? And even if they are, the A380 deliveries will be in their stride and then Airbus has plenty of A319/A32x deliveries, so I don't think Airbus will be in danger of a "cash crisis".

I have heard that traditionally that aircraft are paid for in 3 installments: at or near the time of order, mid-completion, and delivery.

Judging by the remarks that Airbus has long made, they counted having 50% of every market on average. They are going to have far less in the 777-size market for the forseeable future...not only that- they will have to expend cash on R&D that they did not anticipate to upgrade the A340. That is on top of the unexpected A350 pregnancy which was deemed entirely unnecessary just two years ago or so.

I seriously doubt that Airbus forecasted any of these things. But as you point out, they still have a healthy backlog which should provide a cash cushion for at least 2-3 years.
 
Glareskin
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:45 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 116):
They are going to have far less in the 777-size market for the forseeable future

 checkmark 

Quoting N79969 (Reply 116):
I seriously doubt that Airbus forecasted any of these things.

No of course not. Like Boeing didn't anticipate that Airbus going to be the market leader (even if only for a couple of years..). And we'll never know how things would be if the oil prices didn't go crazy like it happened.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
SLUAviator
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:47 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 111):
The 747-8 will use very little from the 787.

I've said it, now Soylentgreen has said it and Boeing has said it. They are going to use technology from the 787 in the 748. Sure it will have to be modified, but the development will be from the 787. A new wing, new engines and new interior are not going to give you all of the savings in fuel and increased efficiency Boeing is talking about. What will make up the balance will be things like weight saving composites and the big one-- bleedless engines. If you do all the work to design a new wing, hang new engines on it and then ignore the already developed systems from the 787 which could help improve the efficiency then Boeing is designing a plane that will only have a short lifespan. Boeing knows this. They have smart people working there. I also think that Boeing is playing their cards close when talking about the 748. I don't think they have all the answers yet because the design work is FAR from over. As it progresses, we will see more from the 787 creep into the final design of the 748.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 111):
The 747 can get away with this because there is NO competition in the 450 seater.

The 747 cannot get away with this simply because airlines will not buy an airplane that will be obsolete within a few years of its lifespan! That's why at the end of its production run, the 727 was moving freighters alone because the airlines had already gone past that technologically--the 757 was already flying!

I am willing to bet that by the time the 748 rolls out, the similarities between it and the 744 will end at the shape of the fuselage. It is going to be a new plane inside guys, Boeing would not build it if it weren't.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 112):
While the new engines are technologies being used on the 787, they are not technologies of the 787.

The engines are the technologies of the 787! The 2 different engines were pushed into development because of the need for a technologically advanced engine for a technologically advanced plane. GE and RR did not just wake up one morning and decide to build new engines! They had been "studying" the prospect, but without any real money on the table it would only be that. The 787 got the new engines going. The term you see poping up in both GE and Boeing press releases is "engines being developed for the 787." Enough said.
What do I know? I just fly 'em.......
 
N79969
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:53 am

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 117):
And we'll never know how things would be if the oil prices didn't go crazy like it happened.

I think you right. Oil prices have been a very key factor.
 
astuteman
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:02 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 114):
And even if they are, the A380 deliveries will be in their stride and then Airbus has plenty of A319/A32x deliveries, so I don't think Airbus will be in danger of a "cash crisis".



Quoting NorCal (Reply 115):
I don't see any sort of a cash crisis for Airbus



Quoting N79969 (Reply 116):
But as you point out, they still have a healthy backlog which should provide a cash cushion for at least 2-3 years.

With a 4 year backlog, and growing deliveries, there'll be no cash crisis in the next 4 years, but as with many things in this industry, today's success was created 3-4 years ago.
Airbus need to be fully aware that this next 4 years HAS to be the time that they avoid a cash crisis in 4-8 years time.
 
JetMaster
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:08 am

Quoting Soylentgreen (Reply 110):
Whoa, nothing could be further from the truth Udo. Boeing's press releases state that they will incorporate as many of the new technologies of the 787 into the 747-800. Otherwise, what's the point of making it? The 747-400 wasn;t selling as is.

Sorry, but you are far away from the truth. BoeingBus and Atmx2000 have summed it up already, so no need for me to repeat.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
zvezda
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:11 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 111):
747 will not have any of the comfort features that the 787 will have like higher humidity, and lower cabin pressure.

The B747-400 and B747-8 have a cabin pressure of 7000 feet, midway between the 6000 feet of the B787 and the 8000 feet of other airliners.
 
soylentgreen
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:16 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 121):
Sorry, but you are far away from the truth. BoeingBus and Atmx2000 have summed it up already, so no need for me to repeat.

Wrong, re-read SLUAviator's reply, and double check Boeing PR's. The 787 tools, techniques, composites, innovations, and interior styling will be carried over. Of course, innovation and new technology never stops; improvements will be made where they can.

Not to change the topic, but where has Pratt and Whitney been with its self these past few years? Do they have what it takes to compete with GEnX and RR on these new models?
 
JetMaster
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:45 am

Quoting Soylentgreen (Reply 123):
The 787 tools, techniques, composites, innovations, and interior styling will be carried over.

What do you mean with "techniques" and "composites"? The B747-8 won't get a composite fuselage (one of the B787's most important features) and the construction process won't be the same (another big B787 advantage). And it won't get the large windows.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
Areopagus
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:53 am

Quoting SLUAviator (Reply 118):
A new wing, new engines and new interior are not going to give you all of the savings in fuel and increased efficiency Boeing is talking about. What will make up the balance will be things like weight saving composites and the big one-- bleedless engines.

The 748 wing will not be all-new, and the engines won't be bleedless. The A350 will have bled versions of the 787 engines, and the 748 will have a cropped-fan version of the A350 GE engine.
 
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N328KF
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:53 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 124):
And it won't get the large windows.

It will, however, get the larger windows from the 777.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
ozglobal
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:36 am

What will happen if Qantas Goes 777?

Grown men will weep, women sigh, inconsolably; Civilization as we know it in Europe will fold; there will be terrible omens and portents in the skies and a certain neurotic circle of A.netters will breath a deep sigh of relief.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
astuteman
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:51 am

Quoting SLUAviator (Reply 118):
A new wing, new engines and new interior are not going to give you all of the savings in fuel and increased efficiency Boeing is talking about

Sorry, SLUAviator, but the VAST majority of the improvement in performance of the 748 over the 744 will come from the ENGINES (based, as you say, on 787 technology).
The new wing HAS to be done, because there is insufficient clearance under the old wing to fit the new, and considerably larger, engines. B have taken advantage of that to revise key characteristics of the wing as thy go. The wing has been relofted, and retwisted (i.e. it's a different shape in the vertical plane).
But it's not a composite wing, nor is it a composite fuselage. (It is a new wing, though  Smile )
Nor are the engines bleedless. Bleedless is just one aspect of the 787 engine technology, but not the biggest.
The biggest aspect is around the redesign of the core, and in particular, making it more compact to get a bigger BPR out of an engine for a given diameter, and reducing the fan speed for a given thrust (Lightsaber - give me the correct words.....)
A
 
atmx2000
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 6:46 am

Quoting SLUAviator (Reply 118):
The engines are the technologies of the 787! The 2 different engines were pushed into development because of the need for a technologically advanced engine for a technologically advanced plane. GE and RR did not just wake up one morning and decide to build new engines! They had been "studying" the prospect, but without any real money on the table it would only be that. The 787 got the new engines going. The term you see poping up in both GE and Boeing press releases is "engines being developed for the 787."

The 787 was the driving force for the creation of engines incorporating advances RR and GE had been working on for sure, but they are not 787 engines, as witnessed by the fact that the A350 also is using them. And the most unique thing about the 787 engines, the lack of bleed air, isn't going to be used on the 747 or A350.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
scarebus03
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:23 am

At the moment we have a clash between the market predictions of both Airbus and Boeing from several years ago. I know if I had a twin engined solution to a four engined problem, which option I would take. Airbus didn't seem to have the resources to introduce a competitor with the 777 until they gained some breathing space with the A380. This clash has caught some airlines on the hop with their earlier predictions and is causing them to reconsider their long term fleet requirements. The A380 at the moment imho doesn't offer a great amount of flexibility if the Airbus hub/feeder system prediction is a little off but the 747-8 and 777 fit the bill exactly in Boeings point to point system. For Airbus to have to develop a new model in between to cover the shortfall in the projection is a little unsettling but now they will cover all possible angles albeit at more expense. If QF go 777, so what. For every good airliner there is another customer and that is certainly true for the A340. When the wrinkles are smoothed out each system will benefit the other admirably. The Aviation world has changed radically in the last 20yrs or so, it now appears one can't survive without the other!

Brgds

SB03
No faults found......................
 
AGANX
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RE: If Qantas Goes 777 What Will Airbus Do?

Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:46 am

I guess the question comes down to ..How to compete with the B777NGs and what to do about the gap between 380 pax (A346) and 550 pax (A388) or more precisely the larger gap between 300 pax (A359) and 550 pax (A388).

Possible solutions would be
1. Come up with a new cross section
2. Close the gap by lengthening the A350 cross section and shorten the A380 cross section

I feel airbus would go for the second option.

Reasons,

Possible to observe two clearly different policies for Airbus and Boeing

Boeing,
Tends to focus more on what is best for the present and it seems to pay them off quite well.
For example B757, B767, B777 all are quite successful and B787 will also be OK (I guess so)
Also they tend to disregard consistency.
For example see the number of different cross sections.
One problem with this is they have to maintain separate lines for each cross section and when sales go down they will have to close down the line

Airbus,
Seems to focus more in the long run regarding the optimum cross sections, and then try to stick onto them.
For example the 8 abreast and 2 LD3 cross section they came up with A300 in early 1970s seems to be one of the best in the class. The fact that B787 has chosen it proves the point.
Cross section they selected for A380 also seems to be quite efficient
Selecting the right cross section and sticking to it seems to be a significant advantage to them as they can produce multiple models with the same line and they need not close the lines even if the sales are poor

Considering these I feel airbus is more likely to have only three cross sections for the time. ( the A320s, A350s and A380s)

So the decisions would be

1. Shorten the A380
It will be too heavy and will not be economical if the present wing is used.
But if a new wing is developed, they might be able to overcome this problem.
In fact they can develop a wing optimized for two different A380 lengths less than 73 m


Developing a whole new wing is costly but in the past they have done such things.
For example groups of A300/A310 and A332/A333/A342/A343 and A345/A346 and A358/A359 have different wings
So why not one wing for A388/A389 and another for shorter A380s

They tend to keep the same cross section but adopt quite a few wings for different versions

With these shorter A380s they might be able to compete with B748s.
I feel they are waiting till Boeing is stuck with the B748 (design freeze or what ever)

2. Improve the A345/A346 with A350 technology and when suitable engines are available they might come up with two twins having lengths of about 70m and 75m to replace the modified A345/A346.
Or they may produce all. That is quads and twins with similar lengths because they can use the same production facilities due to common cross section.
If I remember correctly, they still can produce A300s

So with all these reasons, I feel they might go for something like

A380-900 (656 pax) (79.4 m length) (79.8 m wing span)
A380-800 (555 pax) (73.0 m length) (79.8 m wing span)

A380-600 (510 pax) (70.0 m length) (different wing may be 70m)
A380-500 (450 pax) (66.0 m length) (same wing as A386)

A340-900 (387 pax) (75.3 m length) (63.4 m wing span) modified A346 with new materials and incorporating other features in A350
A340-800 (320 pax) (67.9 m length) (63.4 m wing span) modified A345 with new materials and incorporating other features in A350

Above two quads might become twins when suitable engines are available

A350-900 (300 pax) (65.2 m length) (61.1 m wing span)
A350-800 (253 pax) (58.8 m length) (61.1 m wing span)
A350-600 (222 pax) (54.0 m length) (different wing may be 50m)
A350-500 (185 pax) (50.0 m length) (same wing as A356)

All these are just what I feel, So I could be wrong.

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