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BoomBoom
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A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:12 am

Quote:

Both airlines are in the market for midsized, long-range jets, and in those categories, Boeing planes are simply better than Airbus planes, Aboulafia said. "It's the result of a badly flawed product strategy."

The Airbus A340, which competes with Boeing's 777, is "a legacy dinosaur that didn't go too well," he said. "If it's 777 vs. A340, (Boeing) is pretty well unstoppable."

Hamilton agreed, saying that high fuel prices make Boeing's twin-engine 777 jets more attractive to airlines than the four-engine A340. "Airbus has a real tough sell with the four-engine airplane," he said.

The Airbus A350 competes better with Boeing's 787, both analysts agreed, but "on balance, the 787 is the better airplane," Hamilton said. The 787 is lighter, brighter and all new, he said. "Those things count."
http://heraldnet.com/stories/05/12/0...1.cfm


[Edited 2005-12-03 01:17:12]
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Joni
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:31 am

This guy Aboulafia (and his sidekick Paul Nisbet) has been rubbishing Airbus for years.
 
A319XFW
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:44 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 1):
This guy Aboulafia (and his sidekick Paul Nisbet) has been rubbishing Airbus for years.

Agree, don't think I've ever read anything positive about Airbus from him.....

But on the other hand there must be people (some here on a.net  duck  ) who don't have anything positive to say about Boeing.
Swings in roundabouts.....
 
redflyer
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:12 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 1):
This guy Aboulafia (and his sidekick Paul Nisbet) has been rubbishing Airbus for years.

Actually, only for about the past year or two. He seems to be neutral on the 380 (perhaps that is a negative in your eyes) and bullish on the 787.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 2):
Agree, don't think I've ever read anything positive about Airbus from him.....

You obviously haven't been reading his analysis over the years. He was quite negative on Boeing in the late 90's and from around 2000 - 2003. In one of his analyst reports a few years ago he actually commented that Boeing was becoming at risk of leaving the commercial airplane market entirely unless fundamental changes were made.
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A319XFW
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:16 am

I've only really heard about him in the past 2 years or so. But some comments about the A380 were less than neutral.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 3):
He was quite negative on Boeing

Being negative on Boeing doesn't mean he's potitive on Airbus!
 
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Richard28
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:29 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
" Hamilton said. The 787 is lighter, brighter and all new, he said. "Those things count."

lighter and all new, yes, but brighter?

where, how, why is it "brighter" - higher wattage light bulbs in the cabin?!!!  Wink
 
GDB
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:31 am

Who are these 'analysts' so liberally quoted on here (usually to push an agenda)?
Any of them ever worked in the industry?
Any of them ever worked outside the media and/or financial sectors?

The same 'analysts' who confidently predicted, in the early 1990's, that R/R would be out of the big fan market soon?
The same 'analysts' who not even 30 years ago, reckoned Airbus would sell some A300's, then whither away?
The same Analysts, who predicted that Boeing would not make a success of the B737-300, then went on to reckon that the A320 was too much new technology, too soon?
The same 'analysts' who thought that Concorde would be lucky to complete a decade in service, who a bit earlier said it would never be allowed into any US airport?

You get my point, they are far from omnipotent.
Often they are right, but they are a lot quieter about how wrong they have been.
Often, their pronouncements are treated like sermons from the mount, why?

As their opinion is not much more valid than those in the industry, other journalists, ex industry veterans.
 
Sjoerd
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:32 am

How is this an analysis ? It's a Boeing commercial.

Sjoerd
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dhefty
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:43 am

Anyone who has actually followed Scott Hamilton and Richard Aboulafia over the years would know that they definitely criticize Boeing heavily when appropriate, and are in no danger of writing a "Boeing commercial".

Check out the following and get educated!

http://www.richardaboulafia.com

http://www.leeham.net
 
atnight
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:46 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
Boeing planes are simply better than Airbus planes, Aboulafia said. "It's the result of a badly flawed product strategy."

I am no Airbus fan or Boeing fan, I am an Aircraft Fan, but whoever says the above has surely never flown on an Airbus.. not only are the A320s reportedly prefered by passengers over the B737s, but the A330s are indeed better than any of the B767s... To say that Boeing planes are "simply better than Airbus" is a total lack of knowledge, how can they say that the B747 is better than the A380??? Anyone knows that the A380 is the most advance production aircraft at the moment, technically the best airplane out there.... I think this kind comments about some anti-airbus analyst should be ignored...

And speaking about the B787 vs A350, all that is said will prove nothing until both aircrafts hit the skies... then we will see which one of the two is the "better airplane", which still won't mean that one company "simply is better than" other...
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Richard28
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:50 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 8):
Anyone who has actually followed Scott Hamilton and Richard Aboulafia over the years would know that they definitely criticize Boeing heavily when appropriate, and are in no danger of writing a "Boeing commercial".

Check out the following and get educated!

http://www.richardaboulafia.com

http://www.leeham.net

A journalist who says it "counts" how "bright" an aircraft is has lost my respect immediately!!
 
Sjoerd
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:54 am

The way I read it :

A340 is a legacy - Dinosaur analyst says

 Wink

Sjoerd
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dhefty
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:00 am

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 10):
A journalist who says it "counts" how "bright" an aircraft is has lost my respect immediately!!

Please, just do me a favor and read what is said on those websites. You will come to appreciate the fact that they are unbiased.

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 11):
A340 is a legacy - Dinosaur analyst says

Just about everyone on a.net has said the same thing. The A340's days are over. Quads are on life-support. It's the airlines themselves that are speaking. The journalists are just reporting the facts.
 
redflyer
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:07 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 9):
Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
Boeing planes are simply better than Airbus planes, Aboulafia said. "It's the result of a badly flawed product strategy."

I am no Airbus fan or Boeing fan, I am an Aircraft Fan, but whoever says the above has surely never flown on an Airbus.. not only are the A320s reportedly prefered by passengers over the B737s, but the A330s are indeed better than any of the B767s...

If you're going to quote someone then do it in its entirety because otherwise you will take it out of context, which you have done. The entire quote was: Both airlines are in the market for midsized, long-range jets, and in those categories, Boeing planes are simply better than Airbus planes, Aboulafia said. "It's the result of a badly flawed product strategy." And the quote, when read against the entire article, was specifically with regards to the three airline campaigns (CX, QF, SQ) wherein Airbus has pitched the 340 against Boeing's 777. In THAT context, he suggests the Airbus product strategy (e.g., "4 engines 4 longhaul") is flawed.

No where did they mention (nor impugn) the Airbus 320, Boeing 737, Airbus 330, or Boeing 767 as you have mentioned them.
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N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:07 am

I read some vitriolic remarks about the analysts but little or no substantive criticism of their actual analysis. Are they wrong?

I think the A340 is being shoved towards economic obsolescence by the 777 and unexpectedly high petroleum prices. While the A340 has the latest and greatest bells and whistles, it is a clearly in a downward trajectory. It is not meeting the Airbus stated goal of 50% of the market in its niche.

Now what is incorrect about that? Why are these guys disparaged for highlighting these facts?
 
Sjoerd
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:23 am

When you make an analysis you take all factors into account. The B777 has advantages but so does the A340.

Sjoerd
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Leskova
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:24 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
Please, just do me a favor and read what is said on those websites. You will come to appreciate the fact that they are unbiased.

Ok... after having read some articles on Aboulafia's website, I can only say: my opinion about him hasn't changed.

Not one bit.

While he's not recognizable as a Boeing-spokesman, because, indeed, he does criticise Boeing on some occasions, even after reading around 15 articles on his website, I was unable to find a single one in which he ever had anything positive to say about Airbus.

Whenever something seemed positive at first, it was always countered with something like "This is Airbus' view of the future, we, the TEAL Group, have a different view".

I'm not saying he's not entitled to his views, he most certainly is - but just as he is, I'm entitled to my views.

And after looking at his views, I find his opinion to be more than just slightly slanted towards Boeing.

Fine with me, I have no problem with people who prefer Boeing over Airbus.

But calling them neutral? No. That won't work.

Regards,
Frank
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WAH64D
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
Boeing planes are simply better than Airbus planes, Aboulafia said. "It's the result of a badly flawed product strategy."

There seems to be a load of them in service so the product strategy can't be that bad.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
The A340's days are over. Quads are on life-support. It's the airlines themselves that are speaking. The journalists are just reporting the facts.

I assume you mean that Boeing's B748 product strategy is equally flawed then?

As long as ETOPS remains operator specific and not airframe specific, there will be a large market for quads.
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ScottB
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:33 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 9):
I am no Airbus fan or Boeing fan, I am an Aircraft Fan

And you are clearly dishonest, as well, given your blatant use of that quote out of context. The article makes it clear that Aboulafia was referring to a specific segment of the market -- long-range, mid-sized jets. To try to spin it otherwise is blatant misrepresentation.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 2):
But on the other hand there must be people (some here on a.net) who don't have anything positive to say about Boeing.



Quoting GDB (Reply 6):
Often, their pronouncements are treated like sermons from the mount, why?

You mean like Leahy and Forgeard, for example. I can't count the number of times that their word has been trumpeted as the absolute gospel and not the marketing-speak which it truly is.

One need only look at the outcome of the Cathay Pacific order and Singapore Airlines' lack of follow-on orders to their 5 A340-500's to come to a reasonable conclusion regarding the competitiveness of the A345/6 vis a vis the 772LR/773ER. Boeing won the Cathay 773ER order in spite of the presence of 3 leased A346's in the Cathay fleet and GE engine exclusivity on the 773ER. Singapore cancelled their A345 options and has added to their 777-family orders.

With fuel prices at their current and predicted future levels, it is abundantly clear that the 773ER/772LR's have a significant advantage, in spite of higher acquisition costs. And if one is at all concerned about the environment, it is a great thing that airlines are selecting the more fuel-efficient aircraft for their fleets.
 
HS748
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:35 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
The journalists are just reporting the facts.

Well that would be a first!
 
atnight
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:41 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 13):
If you're going to quote someone then do it in its entirety because otherwise you will take it out of context, which you have done.

You are right RedFlyer, I don't know why I didn't read that first part... my mistake, thank you for your correction and for pointing out the extra information.... I will not misquote someone again... my bad....

As far as saying that the B777 is the better aircraft against the A340, is still something that has to be completely proved, for both have their strenghts and weaknesses, although in most things the B777 does appear better as far as economics and performance go...

As I mentioned earlier, the analysts saying that the B787 is already a better aircraft than the A350, is only on his prospective and nothing is proved, so he should stick to mention "in my opinion" rather than making a statement that is posted as with knowledgeable authority (not to mention his adjective to say "brighter", thus sounding very dumb)
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BoomBoom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:23 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 20):
As far as saying that the B777 is the better aircraft against the A340, is still something that has to be completely proved,

Even before the Cathay win, Boeing had booked 109 firm new orders for 777s this year, compared with 14 orders for A340s. That's proof enough.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Cruiser
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:32 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 20):
As far as saying that the B777 is the better aircraft against the A340, is still something that has to be completely proved, for both have their strenghts and weaknesses

Well, there are a few airlines replacing rather new A340's with the B777. Not only that, but both planes are flying....and the 777 sure takes the cake. The 773ER is now considered the benchmark in its category, because it is the best plane flying the skies. Almost everyone will agree with this, and if they don't, then they obviously are biased. Thankfully, the 787/350 category does not have a clearcut winner.

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Richard28
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:40 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
Please, just do me a favor and read what is said on those websites. You will come to appreciate the fact that they are unbiased.

I've had a read of the web-sites (your second link for leeham.net did not work - but I still found it), and there are some interesting articles, which do seem relatively balanced.

my thoughts on the "bright" quote still stand however, jounralistic fluff? perhaps, but it does seem to be a journalist expressing a personal preference, or at the minimum trying to "pad out" his reasoning.
 
TinkerBelle
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:46 am

Who listens to analists anymore anyways? Anybody can analize anything and it doesn't make it necessarily true. Analists analized the MD-11 would sell well too if I remember correctly.
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
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garpd
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:55 am

Whereas I'm not entirely in agreement with how he said it, I do agree with Aboulafia's assessment.
The 777 has booked over 100 orders for this year against 20 odd for the A340. That is a huge gap for two aircraft that are supposedly more or less equal (As many here insist). The 773ER itself has outsold its direct competitor, the A346. Despite the latter having being available for much longer.

If one takes the whole life cycle to date of both aircraft families it is clear the 777 has met the A340's challenge, bettered it and raised the bar to a level the A340 is struggling to match.

There will always be airlines that prefer 4 engines over 2 for an number of reasons. For this reason the A340, I beleive, will continue to sell. But in the broader term, it has lost the market battle to the 777.
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dynkrisolo
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:55 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 1):
This guy Aboulafia (and his sidekick Paul Nisbet)

Sidekick? It just shows how much you know.

One is affiliated with TEAL Group, and is in the Washington DC area.

The other is affilicated with JSA Reserach based in Rhode Island.

Please goggle a little bit before opening your mouth.
 
NAV20
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:57 am

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 5):
where, how, why is it "brighter" - higher wattage light bulbs in the cabin?!!!



Quoting Atnight (Reply 20):
(not to mention his adjective to say "brighter", thus sounding very dumb)

I would have thought that 'lighter, brighter, and all new' was quite a neat and economical writer's way of referring to the key new features of the 787; the fact that, besides literally being lighter than previous airframes, new construction methods will allow the windows to be 50% larger than normal. Plus the novel lighting and colour schemes Boeing are proposing:-

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/photos.html

[Edited 2005-12-04 02:01:19]
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dutchjet
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:11 am

Why do you let stuff like this bother you? This is one persons viewpoint on the matter....some analysts (or whatever you want to call them) are pro-Boeing, others are pro-Airbus and others are neutral......sometimes the real world is just like a.net.

At the end of the story, the marketplace and airlines will determine which airliners are a success and which are not......take a look at the sales figures to determine which types have been successful. Neither Airbus or Boeing has brought a "bad" product to the market, all of the aircraft offered are safe, effecient and technological wonders.
 
Glom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:18 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 28):
Why do you let stuff like this bother you?

I agree. If we had a less partisan atmosphere on this forum, then we would be able to more intelligently discuss what various people say without all this fear about A vs B slanging matches developing.
 
D5DBY
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:40 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 28):
At the end of the story, the marketplace and airlines will determine which airliners are a success and which are not......take a look at the sales figures

give me a break from this, im so tired of all this A/B post by people. it have a serious lack of any point at all.
if you want to know how successful a company is, just take a look at the figures! is there a profit on this project/AC?

to put it very easy....if you are CEO of an airline and you are to select an AC for short a route....you dont buy/lease a B777. and if you are gonna select a AC for a transatlantic route i wouldn't select a A320.

AIRLINERS WANT A AC THAT CAN MEET THEIR NEEDS REGARDING SAFETY, ECONOMY, COMFORT, DURABILITY ECT ECT....THATS IT.
 
N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:12 am

Quoting Leskova (Reply 16):
While he's not recognizable as a Boeing-spokesman, because, indeed, he does criticise Boeing on some occasions, even after reading around 15 articles on his website, I was unable to find a single one in which he ever had anything positive to say about Airbus.

These guys aside for a moment, I do not know of any industry analyst or investment bank analyst that have praised much at Airbus besides the A320-series which is widely praised far and wide. Do you know of any?
 
dhefty
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:36 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 31):
I do not know of any industry analyst or investment bank analyst that have praised much at Airbus besides the A320-series which is widely praised far and wide.

The A320 family has been phenomenally successful. There is no doubt.

The A330 seems to have a few years to go......

Other than that...

On the 777th day, God rested.
 
Zeus419
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:00 pm

>> This guy Aboulafia (and his sidekick Paul Nisbet) has been rubbishing Airbus for years <<

Indeed they have. Moreover, when they seemingly say something good about Airbus in one breath, it's usually followed by a 'sting in the tail' in the next, so to speak.

[Edited 2005-12-04 13:12:43]
 
A350
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:28 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
The Airbus A340, which competes with Boeing's 777, is "a legacy dinosaur that didn't go too well," he said. "If it's 777 vs. A340, (Boeing) is pretty well unstoppable."

The (non-NG) A340 and A330 are virtually the same airplane, and the A330 sells very well. It's his secret why he calls a well selling type a "dinosaur".

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
the 787 is the better airplane,

He seems to know more than we, even more than the engineers @ A and B  Wink

A350
 
Aither
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:40 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 3):
He seems to be neutral on the 380

He's not.
He's known in the industry as someone being too much influenced by Boeing ideas. Maybe this guy should consider to talk with business people outside the US.
Never trust the obvious
 
astuteman
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:22 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 3):
He seems to be neutral on the 380

Mmmm, his "neutrality" regarding the A380 has been well discussed on this forum, as has his involvement in "neutral" reports regarding A380 costs.
If you call inflating A380 production costs by 25%, and underestimating its freighter market by 400% compared to the views of top freight operators, (just for examples - there are lots of others), neutral, then he does a pretty good job.  Yeah sure

He might be making valid points regarding the A340. Pointing out his "neutrality" on the A380 is not the way to convince me.
 
Paul777
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:27 pm

Airline expert Paul Nisbet of JSA Research, featured in the May Global Business cover story, answers readers' questions about the airline industry.

http://www.time.com/time/global/may/ask.html

Got to love analysts, but in hindsight I am sure all of them have not been correct every time! The first question with a response about the Sonic cruiser made me laugh!
 
columba
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:43 pm

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 11):
The way I read it :

A340 is a legacy - Dinosaur analyst says



Sjoerd

Nice one - Sure the 777 sells better then the A340 but you have to see the A330 as well.
I remember reading a German aviation magazine in the early 90s and it was stated there by an Airbus spokesman that they believe that the A330 will be the more successful version of these two models and outsell the A330.
But since they are almost the same aircrafts it would be no problem for Airbus.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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RayChuang
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 12:07 am

It comes down to this: the A340 didn't exactly meet all that Airbus promised for the plane. First, the plane's stated range didn't meet expectations, and then a number of airlines started to express concerns about the lower-than-expected performance in terms of climb rate, cruise speed and initial flight altitude. Airbus tried to correct that with the A340-500/600, but the range shortfall of the original A346 disappointed a number of airlines flying the plane.

I think with the A350, Airbus will address these concerns and the result is a plane with decent climb rate, decently fast cruise speed and be able to get to at least 32,000 feet initial altitude at standard MTOW.
 
SWISSER
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 12:48 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 29):
I agree. If we had a less partisan atmosphere on this forum, then we would be able to more intelligently discuss what various people say without all this fear about A vs B slanging matches developing.

Great post Glom!
I agree completely.

both A and B have planes that are better then there competitor.
proof is the 777-340 767-332
so what?

but to say that Airbus makes inferior planes then Boeing, and that coming out of the mouth of a so called analyst?

So far my trust in this analyst...
What time is top of descent?
 
vfw614
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 12:58 am

Because Airbus knew right from the beginning that the four-engined mid-size long-haul type of aircraft is sort of a dying species, they have offered a two-engined Airbus A340 from day one - it is called the Airbus A330.

The story only has some substance to it if you look at the Boeing 777-300ER vs. Airbus A340-600. But that was not, it appears to me, the comparison the said gentleman was focusing on.

It is, by the way, always useful to have in mind that everybody at his pleasure can call himself an analyst.
 
redflyer
Posts: 3905
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:03 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
If you call inflating A380 production costs by 25%

And the 380's production costs have soared by some 50% since the program was launched over five years ago, has it not?

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
and underestimating its freighter market by 400%

How many freighter versions have been sold thus far?
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7133
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:07 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 42):
And the 380's production costs have soared by some 50% since the program was launched over five years ago, has it not?

No, it has not.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 42):
How many freighter versions have been sold thus far?

When considering a 20 year forecast from a senior executive in the freight industry versus a forecast from an "analyst", the number sold to date is utterly irrelevant.
 
BoomBoom
Topic Author
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:10 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 6):
The same 'analysts' who confidently predicted, in the early 1990's, that R/R would be out of the big fan market soon?
The same 'analysts' who not even 30 years ago, reckoned Airbus would sell some A300's, then whither away?
The same Analysts, the same analysts...

Don't forget the predictions of the in-house analysts at Airbus:
-The same 'analysts' who confidently predicted 1200 A380 sales (excluding freighters) over 20 years and have now scaled that back to 700.
-The same 'analysts' who predicted the A380 program would cost $10 billion.
-The same 'analysts' who predicted The A380 would not be overweight because it was a clean sheet design.
-The same 'analysts' who predicted it would enter service in April 2006.
-The same 'analysts' who confidently predicted there was no need to respond to the 787; the 330 with new engines would suffice.

[Edited 2005-12-04 17:12:42]
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
JetMaster
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:13 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
brighter and all new, he said. "Those things count."

If "all new" counts, then good bye B747-8...of course Mr. Aboeinglafia won't say that...  Wink

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 5):
lighter and all new, yes, but brighter?

Probably he refers to the larger windows. According to him that must be a major reason for airlines to choose the aircraft...  Yeah sure

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 22):
because it is the best plane flying the skies.

Better than B737NG or A332? It's the best in its category, but not the "best of all".

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 22):
the 787/350 category does not have a clearcut winner.

Well, yes - according to certain biased analysts.  Smile


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
redflyer
Posts: 3905
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:16 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 42):
And the 380's production costs have soared by some 50% since the program was launched over five years ago, has it not?

No, it has not.

I seem to recall Airbus' projections in the 2000 timeframe as claiming the 380 would cost around US$8 - US$10 billion. Their own reports these days are placing the cost in the US$12 - US$15 billion range.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
When considering a 20 year forecast from a senior executive in the freight industry versus a forecast from an "analyst", the number sold to date is utterly irrelevant.

Just one executive? Also, I would think the number sold to date is very relevant. Unless, of course, someone has pointed to a specific year or timeframe and claimed with confidence that that is when the orders will come rolling in. To my recollection, no one (other than those on here at A.Net) has never done that.

Regards,

R
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3839
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:17 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 44):
in-house analysts at Airbus

ROFL. Those "analysts", as you call them, are Airbus employees and nobody on earth would take any of their "analysis" without a grain of salt (the same true of course for Boeing "analysts"). The said gentleman pretends to be a neutral, un-biased analyst which he apparently is not, looking at his track record.

Which is perfectly fine with me as I believe in the conventional wisdom that if you do not have any useful skills to offer to anybody, you either become a consultant or an analyst.
 
GDB
Posts: 13661
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:22 am

ScottB, good try, but I asked whether these ANALysts had worked in the industry, the two people you quoted back at me certainly do.
 
SWISSER
Posts: 1568
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 11:31 am

RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:22 am

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 41):
It is, by the way, always useful to have in mind that everybody at his pleasure can call himself an analyst.

Exactly my point!  Wink
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